Portrait of Gerrit Cole

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2019 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 28)
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Birth Date9-8-1990
Height6' 4"
Weight225 lbs
Age30 years, 7 months, 28 days
WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA..
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shownClick to hide.
2013 PIT MLB 19 19 117.3 10 7 0 109 28 100 7 97 8.4 2.1 0.5 7.7 0% .308 1.17 2.88 3.22 82 2.89 69.1 2.9
2014 PIT MLB 22 22 138.0 11 5 0 127 40 138 11 100 8.3 2.6 0.7 9.0 0% .311 1.21 3.20 3.65 83 2.64 64.6 3.7
2015 PIT MLB 32 32 208.0 19 8 0 183 44 202 11 91 7.9 1.9 0.5 8.7 0% .304 1.09 2.68 2.60 80 2.96 69.1 5.2
2016 PIT MLB 21 21 116.0 7 10 0 131 36 98 7 93 10.2 2.8 0.5 7.6 48% .345 1.44 3.36 3.88 95 4.42 97.8 1.2
2017 PIT MLB 33 33 203.0 12 12 0 199 55 196 31 95 8.8 2.4 1.4 8.7 47% .298 1.25 4.10 4.26 91 3.84 81.7 3.9
2018 HOU MLB 32 32 200.3 15 5 0 143 64 276 19 98 6.4 2.9 0.9 12.4 38% .286 1.03 2.73 2.88 78 2.55 57.0 6.4
2019 HOU MLB 33 33 212.3 20 5 0 142 48 326 29 102 6.0 2.0 1.2 13.8 41% .275 0.89 2.67 2.50 60 2.36 48.5 7.9

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
2012 BRD A+ FSL 13 13 67.0 5 1 0 53 21 69 5 107 7.1 2.8 0.7 9.3 0% .274 1.10 3.37 2.55 82 3.02 62.9
2012 ALT AA EAS 12 12 59.0 3 6 0 54 23 60 2 101 8.2 3.5 0.3 9.2 0% .315 1.31 2.87 2.90 83 3.72 77.5
2012 IND AAA INT 1 1 6.0 1 0 0 6 1 7 0 96 9.0 1.5 0.0 10.5 0% .375 1.17 1.32 4.50 70 3.52 73.2
2013 PIT MLB NL 19 19 117.3 10 7 0 109 28 100 7 97 8.4 2.1 0.5 7.7 0% .308 1.17 2.88 3.22 82 2.89 69.1
2013 IND AAA INT 12 12 68.0 5 3 0 44 28 47 4 99 5.8 3.7 0.5 6.2 0% .216 1.06 3.99 2.91 105 2.98 64.7
2014 PIT MLB NL 22 22 138.0 11 5 0 127 40 138 11 100 8.3 2.6 0.7 9.0 0% .311 1.21 3.20 3.65 83 2.64 64.6
2014 IND AAA INT 4 4 22.3 3 1 0 21 5 16 1 108 8.5 2.0 0.4 6.4 0% .294 1.16 3.30 2.01 93 4.15 87.7
2015 PIT MLB NL 32 32 208.0 19 8 0 183 44 202 11 91 7.9 1.9 0.5 8.7 0% .304 1.09 2.68 2.60 80 2.96 69.1
2016 PIT MLB NL 21 21 116.0 7 10 0 131 36 98 7 93 10.2 2.8 0.5 7.6 48% .345 1.44 3.36 3.88 95 4.42 97.8
2016 IND AAA INT 2 2 8.0 0 0 0 4 0 12 0 107 4.5 0.0 0.0 13.5 40% .267 0.50 0.54 0.00 37 1.97 43.6
2017 PIT MLB NL 33 33 203.0 12 12 0 199 55 196 31 95 8.8 2.4 1.4 8.7 47% .298 1.25 4.10 4.26 91 3.84 81.7
2018 HOU MLB AL 32 32 200.3 15 5 0 143 64 276 19 98 6.4 2.9 0.9 12.4 38% .286 1.03 2.73 2.88 78 2.55 57.0
2019 HOU MLB AL 33 33 212.3 20 5 0 142 48 326 29 102 6.0 2.0 1.2 13.8 41% .275 0.89 2.67 2.50 60 2.36 48.5

Plate Discipline

YEAR Pits Zone% Swing% Contact% Z-Swing% O-Swing% Z-Contact% O-Contact% SwStr%
2013 1721 0.4840 0.4672 0.7823 0.6327 0.3119 0.8748 0.6065 0.2177
2014 2192 0.5023 0.4366 0.7607 0.5931 0.2786 0.8560 0.5559 0.2393
2015 3227 0.4986 0.4754 0.7679 0.6489 0.3028 0.8611 0.5694 0.2321
2016 1911 0.5060 0.4788 0.8087 0.6505 0.3030 0.8903 0.6294 0.1913
2017 3271 0.5078 0.4583 0.7799 0.6334 0.2776 0.8337 0.6532 0.2201
2018 3257 0.5223 0.4919 0.6898 0.6484 0.3207 0.7824 0.4850 0.3102
2019 3268 0.5257 0.4972 0.6289 0.6461 0.3323 0.7207 0.4311 0.3711

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-07-05 2014-08-20 15-DL 46 40 Right Shoulder Strain Latissimus Dorsi -
2014-06-04 2014-06-28 15-DL 24 22 Right Shoulder Fatigue -


Year Team Salary
2028 NYA $36,000,000
2027 NYA $36,000,000
2026 NYA $36,000,000
2025 NYA $36,000,000
2024 NYA $36,000,000
2023 NYA $36,000,000
2022 NYA $36,000,000
2021 NYA $36,000,000
2020 NYA $36,000,000
2019 HOU $13,500,000
2018 HOU $6,750,000
2017 PIT $3,750,000
2016 PIT $548,000
2015 PIT $531,000
2014 PIT $512,500
2013 PIT $
7 yrPrevious$61,591,500
8 yrPvs + Cur$97,591,500
7 yrFuture$252,000,000
15 yrTotal$349,591,500


Service TimeAgentContract Status
7 y 111 dBoras Corp.9 years/$324M (2020-28)

  • 9 years/$324M (2020-28). Signed by NY Yankees as a free agent 12/18/19. Cole may opt out of contract after 2024. If Cole exercises right to opt out, club may void his decision by adding a 10th yr (2029) at $36M. Full no-trade protection. At signing, highest average annual value in history.
  • 1 year/$13.5M (2019). Won arbitration case with Houston 2/13/19 ($13.5M-$11.425M).
  • 1 year/$6.75M (2018). Re-signed by Pittsburgh 1/12/18 (avoided arbitration). Acquired by Houston in trade from Pittsburgh 1/13/18.
  • 1 year/$3.75M (2017). Re-signed by Pittsburgh 1/13/17 (avoided arbitration).
  • 1 year/$548,000 (2016). Renewed by Pittsburgh 2/16.
  • 1 year/$531,000 (2015). Re-signed by Pittsburgh 3/4/15.
  • 1 year/$512,500 (2014). Re-signed by Pittsburgh 3/6/14.
  • 1 year (2013). Contract selected by Pittsburgh 6/11/13.
  • Drafted by Pittsburgh 2011 (1-1) (UCLA). $8M signing bonus (up to $9M if he reaches majors by 2013).

2019 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET

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BP Annual Player Comments

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BP Articles

Click here to see articles tagged with Gerrit Cole

BP Chats

2020-09-04 13:00:00 (link to chat)I didn't pickup Pablo Lopez over the winter when I had a chance, as recommended on TINO, because I wasn't sure about strikeout potential (it's a K/9 dynasty). He's still just around league average, but that's an improvement from last year, and I'm kicking myself, trying to figure out how to avoid this mistake in the future. Are there any ways you can tell when a young pitcher might make gains in K% without a big change in raw stuff? Gerrit Cole would be the extreme example, but maybe not helpful because in his case the strikeout stuff was apparent.
(bozodidthedub from my own failures)
I love Pablo Lopez.

With Lopez specifically, he went through a stretch of looking really good last year, then gave up something like 8 runs in less than an inning and then got hurt. So his bottom line really didn't vibe with what we were watching. To keep an eye on future breakouts, I like to look at walk rates and swinging strike rates. Or even more in depth - swinging strikes for different pitches. So many guys are trading traditional arsenals for the "Throw Your Best Pitch All the Time" method, so if a guy has a standout pitch (Lopez's changeup), it's easy to imagine the scenario where he just throws it more and has more strikeout success. Like this year.

I'm sorry if that sounded ramble-y, I just get excited talking about Marlins pitching, apparently. (Mark Barry)
2020-09-04 13:00:00 (link to chat)Gerrit Cole - just a slow and unlucky start in his new digs, or something more there?
(John from Whereabouts)
I think he's done. He had a good run, but it's over now.

Kidding. He's just giving up a ton of homers. His DRA is still pretty good (3.48) and he's still striking out a bunch of dudes. I think 2019 was probably the best Cole we'll see, but that just means he'll be good from here out as opposed to otherworldly. (Mark Barry)
2020-07-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hey Jesse! One fact of this season is that over 60 games, the elite players get less separation from the very good. Meaning a gap of 15 home runs over 162 games might just be 5 in a short season. But I don't know what to do with this information. In an auction, I am planning to concentrate resources on good mid-round bats, knowing that some of them will perform super elite over 60 games. Or am I thinking about this the wrong way. Does the short season somehow make the top-5 players more valuable?
(Pete from Providence)
I think a shortened season hurts the top players for the exact reasons you mention. Many performance metrics are unable to stabilize in a 60-game season. Fangraphs had a nice article on this awhile back:

In an auction this year, I would actually target top pitchers, rather than hitters, since I expect there to be a substantial difference in usage between top arms and middle-to-back-end arms. In a recent 12-team draft with BP writers, I selected Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer with my first two picks. I think you can obtain a nice advantage with the aces this year, especially if teams just let them loose in this shortened season. Plus, strikeout rate is a stat that stabilizes really quickly.

I also still like to target speed early in a standard 5x5. It is a scare resource and it should play in this short season. (Jesse Roche)
2020-06-10 19:00:00 (link to chat)The Yankees first pick of the draft each year, not one has panned out since Jeter. Hughes is questionable for panning out and Judge was a 1st round comp pick, but not their first pick of that draft, it was IPK. That being said, please tell me the Yankees wont be drafting another toolsy SS/OF like howard or Tucker, and be smart and take a safe college SP in round 1 and then go for upside with Blaze Jordan in round 2....
(brad from NJ)
They've picked some good players since Jeter they just couldn't get to sign because of their bonus pool -- Mark Prior and Gerrit Cole come to mind. They've been doing a good job of waiting back and seeing who falls to them late in the round, there isn't much else you can do when you win a lot of games and don't get to pick higher in the round. Blaze Jordan is an interesting name to watch to see where he ends up tomorrow... (Keanan Lamb)
2019-11-18 13:00:00 (link to chat)Not really a prospect question, but all I hear everywhere is the Angels should sign Gerrit Cole. But why NOTHING on Anthony Rendon? I’m not sure Zack Cozart will ever be healthy or good again. I’m not convinced Tommy La Stella is a 30-homer All-Star suddenly at age 30. Both are gone in 2021. As is Andrelton Simmons. Leaving an infield of David Fletcher and...uh...yeah. There isn’t help coming soon from the farm. I can squint and see a solid top-3 of a rotation in Ohtani,Heaney, and Canning despite the risk with Sandoval being a decent back end guy. I can’t see the infield being even passable beyond 2020. Why not try to get Rendon + a lesser pitcher for the same price as Cole? Then deal prospects for a Dylan Bundy or Caleb Smith high-upside type that shouldn’t cost a ton.
(Matt from Boston)
Sure. I mean they should probably sign both, but I think broadly speaking the upgrade from Peters/Barria/Suarez group to Cole is just going to be more significant than Rendon over some league average IF options. (Los Angeles Angels Top 10 Chat)
2019-11-07 14:00:00 (link to chat)Hey Collin, excited to have you for a chat today. As the old saying goes: any day that someone other than Craig is chatting at BP is a good day. Anyway, do you think the Yankees could end up with Strasburg?
(Yuri from Israel)
The Yankees could end up with anyone, including Strasburg and including Gerrit Cole. They will get Strasburg if they decide to pay what's necessary to get him to come there. I'm not optimistic they're going to do that, though, but don't rule it out entirely. (Free Agent Chat w/Collin Whitchurch)
2019-11-08 13:00:00 (link to chat)How many of these guys are getting traded this winter for Pitching?
(Joey Doughnuts from Bronx Baby)
I wonder who are the available arms that the Yanks would want. It seems much simpler to just sign Gerrit Cole. The tanking teams have almost uniformly awful pitching (feature, not a bug). I suppose some weird Luis Medina package for Matt Boyd could be in play, but also the best thing about Matt Boyd is the contract, and he's a very marginal gain for a fully healthy Yanks rotation. There's always #mysteryarms to come I suppose. (New York Yankees Top 10 Chat)
2019-10-23 14:00:00 (link to chat)Did Gerrit Cole cost himself any $ with last nights performance or will one postseason clunker make no long-term difference?
(sportsguy21792 from madison)
No long term difference there. (Craig Goldstein)
2019-10-18 12:00:00 (link to chat)Who do you like in the world series Steve? I can't wait to see a Scherzer ,Verlander match up if it happens, I think it will, and I like Washington in six :).
(boatman44 from Liverpool)
Assuming that Houston finishes it off tonight (I believe they will), I don't see a team beating Gerrit Cole three times (assuming he pitches G1, G4 and a G7 if needed), or once for that matter. He is the best pitcher in the game right now. (Steve Givarz)
2019-10-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)Would you Gerrit Cole should be the 1st SP off the board in a 15 team 5 x 5? (assuming he winds up in a good situation) Also, do you prefer Cole at #7 overall or a Top 5 SP at #22?
(Vic from Baltimore)
Yes, Cole would be the top pitcher. I wouldn't take him at 7 and might not take a pitcher at 22, either. If you're making me choose between Cole at 7 and a top-5 arm at 22, I'll do the latter. (Craig Goldstein)
2019-07-22 15:00:00 (link to chat)I LOVE Ronald Acuna, Jr. Do I trade him for Walker Buehler, Gerrit Cole, Javy Baez, and this other team's 1st round pick (would be 2nd overall currently). I'm currently in 1st, its a keep 12 forever league. I think I can win without this deal but doing it would all but wrap it up for me. Pull the trigger and give up my beloved?
(This guy from Over Here)
He's such a fun guy to own but this is a massive haul even without the consideration of it pushing you over the edge in the league. You're getting two aces, another mesmerizing player in Baez, AND a great pick. This is too much value to turn down, even for someone like Acuna. (Darius Austin)
2019-06-10 20:00:00 (link to chat)In my dynasty league, I could use a long-term CF as I'm currently deploying Harper in the 8 spot and next year I can probably deploy Gallo there and Harper back to RF. But with the dearth of LF options, I need Gallo there. Starling Marte is available in my 20-team dynasty (his owner has Trout). I have plenty of young pitching )Ian Anderson, Jesus Luzardo, Alex Reyes, Dustin May, Chris Paddack), and some more seasoned pitching (Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer). If I offered Luzardo, you think that's a fair offer to fill my OF?
(Mike from Milwaukee)
I feel like most Luzardo owners would think this is too rich and most Marte owners would think this isn't rich enough, which means it's probably about right. You can't trust Marte to play in more than 120 games and he's on the wrong side of 30, but Luzardo is a pitcher with arm injuries. Risks abound. (Ben Carsley)
2019-05-31 13:00:00 (link to chat)I have a need for pitching and too many bench hitters who shouldn't be on the Amed Rosario. I want to trade Ohtani for SP help. Can you please offer 5 targets? David Price? And who?
(Vic from Baltimore)
You'll need to add another piece, but Gerrit Cole should be a target. Walker Buehler. I'd be inquiring on Zack Wheeler and Eduardo Rodriguez. I'm also buying Frankie Montas's early-season breakout. (J.P. Breen)
2019-04-05 16:00:00 (link to chat)Would you deal Bregman for Vlad Jr. and Gerrit Cole in a dynasty? 16 team league where I would start maybe Tim Beckham until Vlad comes up. My team is very competitive this year, but my pitching is full of elderly aces.
(Alex from Austin)
I love Bregman, but getting Vlad makes this worth it. Vlad was #10 overall in Bret's top 500 dynasty players this year, just behind Bregman at #7. Add in a clear #1 fantasy SP, and I'd pull the trigger. (Kevin Jebens)
2018-09-10 14:00:00 (link to chat)Why did Gausman suddenly become great as soon as he left? What is Gausman's longer term outlook now that he actually plays for a team with coaching?
(Orioles Fan from MD)
Not being in Camden Yards probably helps. We still haven't seen a ton of strikeouts in Atlanta, so it's not like he's suddenly done a Gerrit Cole and turned into an ace. (Darius Austin)
2018-09-12 13:00:00 (link to chat)I just hit an oppo double off Gerrit Cole for my first MLB XBH. I've got to be considered a top 75-ish prospect for dynasty leagues right?
(Christin Stewart from Detroit)
Sure, that sounds about right. (Mark Barry)
2018-02-23 20:00:00 (link to chat)Scott, Gerrit Cole, Eloy Jimenez, or Matt Olson in a Scoresheet keeper AL league draft. Thanks!
(rrydelek from Moon)
Not sure of your situation. I think in a vacuum Id go with Eloy if you dont need him this season. He seems to check the most Scoresheet boxes. (Scott Delp)
2018-02-13 20:00:00 (link to chat)In a Scoresheet keeper league, given the chance to draft Eloy Jimenez or Gerrit Cole, which way would you go? Thanks
(rrydelek from Moon)
I'd still go with Cole. He's young and I think the Astros will mostly fix what ails him. (Mike Gianella)
2017-07-18 14:00:00 (link to chat)Who says no? Gerrit Cole for Acuna and Allard/Soroka?
(Justin from Cutioner)
Justin, Braves PBOPs and I say No. Acuna fills up categories and is 19 years old. he is 7 years from his peak. Cole is young yes but is also about to be a FA. Braves are also not going to catch a playoff spot this year. (Javier Barragan)
2017-07-19 17:00:00 (link to chat)Jameson Taillon is really, really good. I think he can be a #1 and ace. What do you think?
(Justin from Iowa)
He gets a ton of grounders, strikes out a good amount, and has seen his opposing contact percentage drop from last year. He's going to be great. A #1 in a rotation? Probably, and that'll pretty much happen if Gerrit Cole is traded. An ace? I see an ace as the top 7-8 pitchers in the league, and while Taillon's got an outside shot, he might not reach that. But that is not a detraction on him at all. Taillon is an excellent pitcher and has a bright future. (Brett Cowett)
2017-05-15 17:00:00 (link to chat)What're the chances Gerrit Cole gets traded within the next year or so? What would a return for the Pirates look like?
(Jeb from Iowa)
I'd say they're pretty good, particularly if the Pirates decide to do a complete tear down. They'd probably want something similar to what the Yankees got for Aroldis Chapman. (Mike Gianella)
2017-05-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)After multiple DL stints last year, Gerrit Cole is off to a great start this season. How are you feeling about him long-term at this point?
(Mike from PA)
I know there were a lot of worries about him this spring but I didn't really buy into them. Maybe I'm a pollyanna, but nothing screamed of "chronic health problems" last year. He's a big, well-conditioned guy with stuff and command. His DRA so far (2.90) is lower than his ERA (3.14). This could be the real deal. The biggest long-term concerns are, of course, health in general (solely because he's a pitcher) and the near-certainty that he won't be wearing a Pirates uniform once he gets through arbitration (or maybe even before, since he's going to get expensive). (Rob Mains)
2017-05-18 13:00:00 (link to chat)If the Pirates were to trade Gerrit Cole within the next year or so. Who could be a likely destination (NYY) ? And what could the Pirates get in return for him (If NYY, Torres?) ?
(Jeb from Iowa)
That's always going to be the link since they drafted him of course, but they are one of the few orgs that might buy a frontline starter and have the prospects to go get one. Yeah, it'd start with Gleyber for me, and I'd want a high end second piece out of that system too. A healthy Cole is a frontline power arm with 2+ years of control left. (Jeffrey Paternostro)
2016-12-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hi Kenny. I've seen a lot of writers warning about 'crimson flags' re Gerrit Cole. Are we really saying he is a major risk going forward? I know (Pitcher!) but what do you see as the ceiling / floor going forward?
(madjockmcferson from Norton, MA)
Honestly, I think we've seen the ceiling ready with Cole. He can get back there, but that might be it. I'm getting worried. (Kenny Ducey)
2016-12-01 19:00:00 (link to chat)Hi Mike, Who should I keep for 2017, Gerrit Cole or Jerad Eickhoff? Cole has more upside but costs a lot more and has injury questions while Eickhoff has some potential to be solid for cheaper price.
(Cal guy from cal)
Oy. If there's a price difference, I'd go Eickhoff. Hate to give up Cole, but the flags are crimson. Crimson! (Mike Gianella)
2017-01-18 20:00:00 (link to chat)I'm trying to choose 3 of these guys to keep in my OBP Keeper League: Addison Russell, Jackie Bradley (his CF eligibility makes him more valuable in my league), Hanley Ramirez, Gerrit Cole, Alex Reyes, Danny Salazar. Any suggestions?
(mattstupp from NYC)
Russell, Hanley and Reyes (by a nose over Cole). (Bret Sayre)
2016-08-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)Bryan, G. Cole and Gausman are two of the more frustratingly underachieving pitchers in the game. What can we expect from them in 2017 and beyond?
(Cal Guy from Cal)
Calling Gerrit Cole an underachiever with a career 2.89 FIP and 3.10 ERA is cold blooded, Cal Guy. I expect Cole to pitch like one of the top 30 starters in the game next year. As for Gausman, I expect him to improve in the rate stats next year as his HR rate drops, but he's one of the guys I worry a little about long-term due to injury and reliance on that wicked strikeout rate. Both are going to be fun to watch, though. (Bryan Grosnick)
2016-08-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)Who has a better 2017: Bundy, Skaggs or Cole?
(JoshuaGB from Chicago)
I'm always going to bet on Gerrit Cole (I'm assuming this is the Cole you're referring to), but I think Tyler Skaggs is going to have a much better campaign than people might expect. He is Good. (Nicolas Stellini)
2016-03-09 19:00:00 (link to chat)Standard 5x5, 12-team Roto league and we keep six each season. After keeping Trout, Donaldson, Rizzo, Scherzer and Arrieta, do I go with Lorenzo Cain, Troy Tulowitzki or Gerrit Cole as my last keeper?
(Matt from DC)
I'd keep Cole in that format. I like Cain better in a deeper league, but even in today's speed starved context you can find steals on the waiver wire. (Mike Gianella)
2016-03-14 14:30:00 (link to chat)Jacob DeGrom or Gerrit Cole?
(Calvin from Pitt)
Can't go wrong, but I'll take Cole. (Brendan Gawlowski)
2015-07-23 17:00:00 (link to chat)Who is your favorite team to watch this season?
(Sam from OL)
I'm a Mets fan and it has been great to see the young pitching coalesce. In terms of a team I like watching on the whole, I have really enjoyed the Pirates. Gerrit Cole is turning into a superstar and there are so many young studs on that team. Their approach on the mound is terrific thanks to Ray Searage and the fans there are really energized now that they're winning on a regular basis. (Mike Gianella)
2015-07-23 17:00:00 (link to chat)What is Gerrit Cole's peak upside? And how good could Tyler Glasnow be?
(Jeb from Iowa)
Cole is a legit ace who could be that ace for years. He's there this year. Glasnow could be a James Shields type...not quite an ace but that 1B type guy who is a 4 win pitcher for years. (Mike Gianella)
2015-07-23 17:00:00 (link to chat)What do you think of a few of these Pirate prospects: Bell? McGuire? Glasnow? Meadows?
(Justin from Pittsburgh)
I like Bell, though I'm not as high on him as others. Meadows should be a solid starter but not a superstar. Glasnow could make for a great #2 behind Gerrit Cole. McGuire: so far so good, but young catching prospects often don't pan out. (Mike Gianella)
2015-06-30 19:00:00 (link to chat)Hi Mike, Which organizations are more likely to put a damper on a pitching prospect (e.g. not allow them to use their best pitch or force them to throw more of a certain pitch) as part of the development process? And does that complicate the job of scouting?
(Cal Guy from Cal)
It's a tough question to answer, but I know the Pirates do this to some degree, and it impacted how some of us (including me) looked at Gerrit Cole when he was a prospect. I think teams tend to limit pitch counts and don't so much prohibit specific pitches as they do force pitchers to sequence (throw pitches at certain times or in a certain order) so that they can work on their craft. It does make scouting more difficult, although if a scout knows what he or she is looking for, it isn't rocket science. So I think it makes the scout's job harder, but if an organization's tendencies are well known, you can put 2-and-2 together. (Mike Gianella)
2015-04-13 15:00:00 (link to chat)Are the expectations of Gerrit Cole still that of a no crap # 1 starter? Or has that hype tapered off?
(Rob from baltimore)
For me it hasn't tapered off. I had him second in my Cy Young predictions and he's a main reason I picked the Pirates to win it all. I love what he brings in all aspects, hopefully the swing and miss starts to pick up, because I like to look smart. It happens so rarely... (Sahadev Sharma)
2015-04-13 15:00:00 (link to chat)It looks like Gerrit Cole decided to actually try to start striking guys out today. I hope he keeps that up.
(Matt from Cambridge)
Well there you go, he apparently read my chat and took my advice. (Sahadev Sharma)
2015-04-07 14:00:00 (link to chat)What NL pitchers do you feel are being underrated or have some untapped potential? Excluding the well-known elite arms.
(bumphillips from rain puddle)
I'm real big on Andrew Cashner over the next few years. He has made some significant mechanical improvements to shore up the most glaring weaknesses in his game (B+ delivery now), and he has the stuff to scale the next level. I really like how Michael Wacha addressed his repertoire-related needs last season, adding not one but two breakers to his fastball-change arsenal, and he has quickly gone from over-rated (this time last year) to under-rated. I think that Gerrit Cole is also ready to make the leap, and though some folks have soured on him a bit for not making the elite jump last season, he also improved his delivery to reach the A- club at a very young age, and I am very optimistic about his future. (Doug Thorburn)
2015-02-26 20:00:00 (link to chat)Re: the Gerrit Cole discussion on TINO. When respected voices like Ben and Craig disagree with you on a player, do you rethink your position?
(OBPplusSLG from Sandwichland)
Of course. Ben and Craig are awfully good at what they do and are very strong player evaluators. In fact, when I put out lists, they are almost always after I've already solicited advice from them and made changes based on their recommendations. (Bret Sayre)
2015-01-20 19:30:00 (link to chat)Would you trade Teheran for Gerrit Cole and a prospect draft pick that could turn into one of Moncada, Tomas, Rodon, Castillo, or Schwarber?
(Steve from LA)
Yes I would, regardless of which of those five "prospects" I received in return. (Ben Carsley)
2015-01-20 19:30:00 (link to chat)Who's your pick for this year's Corey Kluber and Michael Brantley?
(Mike from Chicago)
Good question. Gerrit Cole and Mookie Betts (Ben Carsley)
2015-02-13 19:00:00 (link to chat)Hi, Mike! Thanks for your work. 16 team points league with 18 keepers (25 man-roster + 3 minor slots). I'm keeping Pujols, Beltre, Xander, Stanton, Ellsbury, Wright, Russell, Greinke, Gerrit Cole, Waino and Stroman. But I'm struggling with other 7 slots, so I decided to ask for help. Pretendents: McCann, Odor, Profar, Choo, Duda, Gausman, Phil Hughes, Holland, Doolittle, Wade Davis, Archie Bradley, Giolito, Stephenson. Thanks!
(navarra from Ukraine)
Ukraine! Wow! Thanks for reading.

A lot of this obviously depends on whether you're looking at this year or the future. McCann, Profar, Duda, Gausman, Hughes, Davis, and Giolito are the seven I think I'd keep, but that's a nice list with a nice set of problems to have. Stephenson and Bradley are tough to drop, but I don't like going with too much rookie pitching in a format like this. (Mike Gianella)
2015-02-13 19:00:00 (link to chat)Can Gerrit Cole become a Top 5 NL pitcher this year, if he stays healthy? Long term, what are your thoughts about Cole? How do you think Crawford fit in with the Dodgers OF this year-----he really had a strong finish last year so do you see him in a platoon, or can he earn 500 or more AB's if he produces from the start----and put up some strong numbers? I'm hoping for maybe for 18-75-and 25 if he gets enough AB's----can you see it?
(bob m from pa)
I think that's a stretch. I'm thinking Top 10 is the ceiling. Long term, Cole could be an ace but we need to see more consistency, repeatabilit.

Crawford is probably going to get most of the AB against righties and Van Slyke will spell him against LHP. That's still not bad. I think that's a little ambitious given his health profile, but if he stays on the field (big if) 15/25 isn't nuts. (Mike Gianella)
2015-01-21 15:00:00 (link to chat)What do you think of Gerrit Cole this year? Would you move a solid OF like Starling Marte for him in a dynasty league?
(Grizzly from Chicago)
Big fan of Cole this year, and I would definitely swing that deal in a dynasty league if it's available. (Doug Thorburn)
2015-01-05 15:00:00 (link to chat)Thoughts on Michael Lorenzen heading into next year? Are we doing a disservice by paying attention to his K/9 rather than his raw stuff?
(Kevin from Cincinnati )
I did not get to Pensacola this year unfortunately (it's a 9 hour trip, so it takes some advanced planning), but I do want to touch on this topic, because it's a good one. We can definitely get hung up on minor league stats. You wouldn't know Lorenzen throws 96 by looking at his K/9 rate. That said, I think K/9 is a good stat to look at, as long as its part of a bigger picture. It's a bit of a catch 22. We know Lorenzen has better stuff than that so we're not as worried about a low K rate as we would be with a guy who throws 89 mph. That said, he's already in Double-A, it would be nice to see him miss some bats, right? Not everyone who throws hard misses bats. It's not a given just because there's velocity. Just because she throws hard doesn't mean he's going to miss bats in the majors.

There are also other factors to consider. Did the Reds have him working on something in particular? Gerrit Cole is a good example of this. His minor league strike out totals did not match his stuff, which was as good as anybody's in the minors. Why not? Well for one, the Pirates had him working on his two-seam fastball and getting ground balls. He's still using that pitch a ton in the majors and having success. Could he strike out 9-10 batters a game, probably. But would he be better off?

There are a lot of variables, and they all tell part of the story. That's why you can't just look at the numbers, but you should take them into consideration. (Jeff Moore)
2015-01-28 19:00:00 (link to chat)Who do you like to become an ace, G Cole, A Wood, Carrasco, or deGromm?
(G Money from Atlanta)
Gerrit Cole, without a doubt. He has the pedigree and the potential to get there. He's going to have to log the innings to get there though. I'm a big deGrom fan as well but I go with Cole here. (Mauricio Rubio)
2015-01-28 19:00:00 (link to chat)Has Jake Arrieta become an ace? Top 15 pitcher this year?
(Walker from Houston)
Along the same vein as the Gerrit Cole question he's going to have to log 200 innings and keep the same production for him to be an ace in my mind. It wouldn't surprise me if he was top 15 but he has to go out there and prove it. (Mauricio Rubio)
2014-08-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)In a dynasty format (5x5), which side of a Gerrit Cole for Kris Bryant trade would you prefer?
(RatedRookie from Atlanta)
I'd take Bryant. (Mike Gianella)
2014-08-29 12:00:00 (link to chat)Have you watched any of Gerrit Cole's starts since he returned from the DL? Perhaps he has righted the ship?
(RatedRookie from Atlanta)
Haven't seen either of them. Might have to check them out. I will say Cole's obviously a big-time talent and Ray Searage is a good pitching coach, so it wouldn't shock me if he's headed the right way. (R.J. Anderson)
2014-07-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Is Tyler Beede the perfect case why going going to college instead of accepting first round money is fairly pointless? He got $200k more by barely improving his stock, but he also probably delayed his development/free agency and took on risk that he didn't need to. The whole "getting an education" arguement is a bunch of crap too.
(Matt from Cambridge)
It depends on the end game. If the goal is to get more money, then yeah, it doesn't usually work out too well (though Gerrit Cole would beg to differ). But there is more too it than that. You're right about the education part of it - not that getting an education is bad, but just that most baseball players in the majors, even the ones who attended college, didn't graduate. Still, there is some growing up to be done. I'd argue that that part of college is much more important for these guys.

In the end, there are tons of examples where it worked out to go to college and examples where it didn't. Each guy has to make his own decision. I would say, however, that given the potential for injury, if I was a pitcher and someone was offering me line-changing (first round) money, I'd take it while I was sure I could. (Jeff Moore)
2014-07-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Speaking of him, what are your thoughts on Gerrit Cole so far in the majors and his long-term outlook?
(Dan from Toronto)
I love Gerrit Cole and have seen most of his major league starts (my fiance is a Pirates fan so we watch a lot of Buccos games in our house) as well as scouting him when he was in the minors. I'm still waiting for him to just start shoving it. He started to down the stretch last year and in the post-season and it was fun to watch. He hung one curveball, which he literally hadn't done all year, and it kept the Pirates out of the NLCS. He was awesome. I think he's got that laid-back, SoCal personality that allows him to cruise at times, and he does that throughout the year and he's good enough to get away with it. I was waiting for him to turn it back on this year but he got hurt, came back and went down again with an unrelated injury. Maybe all of this will keep him fresh for September and October. I hope so. With Jose Fernandez hurt, Cole has the best package of stuff of any young pitcher we have right now. When he wants to dominate, it sure is fun. (Jeff Moore)
2014-06-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)How good can Tyler Glasnow be? He has been unreal the last couple of weeks.
(Jeb from Iowa)
The sky is the limit for Glasnow. His height helps him attack hitters with a potent combination of velocity, downward plane, and a release point that is about halfway to the plate. As I mentioned in today's MLU, he simply doesn't get hit hard. His potential plus curveball is no slouch of a pitch either. He needs to throw more strikes, but being tall is a legitimate excuse for those struggles and we've seen tall pitchers struggle longer to correct fastball command than other guys. He'll never be a control artist, but even if he's not, he avoids good contact enough to be a mid-rotation starter. If he throws more strikes, he'll slot right behind Gerrit Cole and ahead of Jameson Taillon in future Pittsburgh rotations. (Jeff Moore)
2014-06-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)Oscar Tavares has not been hitting much since he was sent down. Is this boredom or he really not major league ready?
(Andrew from Boston)
I would imagine he's just bored. I've heard scouts talk about him having focus issues, especially once he thought he should be promoted. Some guys just don't turn it on in the minors because they're so good that they don't really have to. Gerrit Cole looked pretty bored in the minor leagues too. There's no question about Taveras' ability to hit a baseball, and he's not going to be much more major league ready than he already is. (Jeff Moore)
2014-06-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)Dallas Keuchel is good, but not sure he's this good. Who are some SPs you would try and target for him? Alex Cobb? Mat Latos if his 1st start back goes ok? Gerrit Cole?
(Shawnykid23 from CT)
Yeah, I'd probably take any of those three. I'm a little worried Cobb might still be ailing, so I might actually lean toward Latos and Cole, even though both are DL'd right now. Latos is close to returning and Cole should be back after the minimum stay, while Cobb may be headed for another DL stint if he is indeed still hurt (Paul Sporer)
2014-05-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)Do prospects in the minors start to regress if stuck in the minors for too long? Ex, if Polanco, Taveras, Bradley, Bauer or any other prospect seemingly almost ready for a promotion are still in the minors in July/August, do they get discouraged? Does their performance start to diminish?
(Goldeye99 from Winnipeg)
They certainly can. Some prospects just aren't challenged down there. Gerrit Cole was a good example. His numbers in college and the minors were somewhat pedestrian because it just wasn't a challenge. There are examples of guys who head back to a level for the second straight year and don't play well. There are other cases where they head back and tear it up. It varies by player, but it does happen. (Jeff Moore)
2014-05-02 14:00:00 (link to chat)Could you seem Gerrit Cole heading down the Jordan Zimmermann career path? Where the stuff could generate more Ks, but control/weak contract take the front seat?
(NightmareRec0n from Boston)
Sure, I could see that, especially with the similarities in repertoire. Of course, Zimmermann has missed the memo so far this year, with a 25% K rate that beats each of the past 3 seasons by 6 percentage points. (Doug Thorburn)
2014-05-21 13:00:00 (link to chat)Took over a team this year in 10 team H2H Full dynasty. Loaded with young players and in last right now. Have an offer on the table of Springer, Bumgarner, Profar, Dozier, and Wacha for my Miggy and Cueto. Now he wants to Cole and get Desmond too. Do it or would you ask for Oscar Taveras too or instead of Cole? Thanks.
(Mookie from Mania)
OK... now, I'll answer it. I generally go for the star talent ahead of all else in a 10-teamer, but you ARE getting some star talent for your established studs. If you're in last, go ahead and take the throng of youth. I believe you're getting Gerrit Cole for Ian Desmond in that addendum? I LOVE Cole, but I'd make him bring in Taveras WITH Cole and see what he says! (Paul Sporer)
2014-05-21 13:00:00 (link to chat)Love your podcasts! Have you seen anything that would explain why Gerrit Cole seems less "special" this year? normal development?
(shakyhands from nj)
Thanks! Just normal development, IMO. I definitely thought he could make the leap right away this year, but we haven't seen it just yet. That said, he still could as the season evolves, but even if not, he looks like he'll be a perfectly solid fantasy asset (Paul Sporer)
2014-04-21 13:00:00 (link to chat)Would you trade Oscar Taveras for Gerrit Cole ?
(Paul from Pittsburgh)
Ugh. (Jeff Moore)
2014-03-14 09:00:00 (link to chat)I have Gerrit Cole and Zack Wheeler in option years in NL only league. Cole at $15 and Wheeler at $10. Do I add 1 year for $5, 2 years at $10, or keep this year only at this price? I'm thinking adding 2 years to Cole at $25 and 1 extra year on Wheeler at $15. thoughts?
(krrtaa from South Jersey)
I'm more conservative with contracts than some are. I would option both. Kris Medlen is example #4,279 of why giving pitchers contracts often blows up in our faces. My rule of thumb for pitcher contracts is anything over $15 in a $260 budget league is assuming too much risk. And while Wheeler would fit that at $15, I don't see him at the level (yet) where he's earned that kind of extension. Cole's a special pitcher, so I get the temptation to go $20. But I would resist that temptation. (Mike Gianella)
2014-03-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)Any thoughts on Jeff Hoffman's struggles this year? I remember Gerrit Cole was another guy that didn't dominate the way people expected in college, but obviously he figured things out. So I guess this is a two part question: your thoughts on Hoffman, and why some pitchers don't seem to put it all together until the majors.
(Riley from Minnesota)
Hoffman will be fine. I'll bet we've forgotten all about this by May. I'm still very much looking forward to him coming to town in late April.

As for pitchers, it's a tricky thing. Some guys are literally too good for the college game, in that their strengths don't really matter to college hitters. For instance, a pitcher with an upper-90's fastball and a good changeup actually does himself a disservice against most college hitters to throw them the changeup. It may be his best pitch, but college hitters can hit it when they can't hit 97. Good pitchers like Cole or Hoffman (I'm being hypothetical here) will throw their good stuff anyway but sometimes it ends up getting them hit. That's why Stephen Strasburg dominated in college. He had the changeup, but he rarely used it. It was just 99,98,99,100, big freaking curveball, strike three. Most pitchers don't do that, however. They throw what they have and sometimes it costs them, but they are better pitchers for it in the long run. (Jeff Moore)
2014-02-26 19:00:00 (link to chat)cole or wacha ? pick one while held at gun point
(bloodmoney from detroit)
Gerrit Cole. I love them both but Cole is my guy here. (Mauricio Rubio)
2014-02-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)I think that the Gerrit Cole K rate in the minors was overblown due to team philosophy. Now that he will be starting in Pittsburgh do you expect him to unleash his best stuff and have a near elite K rate?
(Chris from Phoenix)
Absolutely. Already showed it last year. He had a 24% rate from July on in his final 93 IP. I LOVE him this year. (Paul Sporer)
2014-02-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)I keep getting stuck in mock drafts picking my third SP. Generally I'm looking at Minor, Shields, Cobb, Tanaka, Gerrit Cole. Any thoughts?
(Jeff from Johnsonville)
Cole and Shields way ahead of that group, IMO. Shields safer, but Cole has insane upside. (Paul Sporer)
2014-02-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)any short lists of starting pitchers you will most likely be avoiding this year, and one's you'll be targeting specifically, well other than Gerrit Cole.
(ganz1080 from CT)
Still off of Buchholz. Weaver, Wacha, and Smyly among guys I don't want at their price (Paul Sporer)
2014-03-03 13:00:00 (link to chat)If you were a GM, which SP would you rather build your rotation around - Gerrit Cole or Jose Fernandez?
(GoneTroutFishin from NJ)
Fernandez (Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings)
2014-03-03 13:00:00 (link to chat)If you were a GM, which SP would you rather build your rotation around - Gerrit Cole or Jose Fernandez?
(GoneTroutFishin from NJ)
Fernandez (Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings)
2014-02-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)Despite the inherent costs of starting the arbitration clock earlier, shouldn't the immediate success of top NL fireballing pitching prospects last year like Gerrit Cole, Jose Fernandez, Shelby Miller, Michael Wacha and even lower ceiling guys like Tony Cingrani and Alex Wood made it more likely that Archie Bradley, Noah Syndergaard and maybe even guys like Matt Wisler and James Taillon come up to help their clubs as early as possible?
(Scott from LA)
Maybe, but remember everyone's developmental cycles are different. Kevin Gausman seemed like a good bet to succeed right out of the gates, instead he allowed more hits than innings pitched. So it's really a case-by-case thing.

Plus, with the exception of Jose Fernandez, all those pitchers were on quality teams. If I'm the Mets I'm not eager to cost myself more money later on for two months of a guy who, let's face it, isn't the difference between the postseason and the golf course. (R.J. Anderson)
2014-02-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)Expectations for Jose Abreu for 2014 and beyond? And do you expect a small improvement or a big boy leap for Gerrit Cole?
(lipitorkid from California)
I'm going to remain conservative on Abreu until I see him against big-league pitching. The power seems legit but I'm concerned about how he'll translate against quality big-league arms. It's possible I'm way underselling him and he'll be a monster, I just don't want to get too hyped only to be disappointed by just a solid performance.

I'd guess marginal with Cole because he was better than I anticipated. Having those backstops, that defense, and that park help, too, of course. (R.J. Anderson)
2014-01-29 19:00:00 (link to chat)Welcome Ben, I'll start you off with a curveball: Let's say every draft eligible prospect from 2010 to 2014 was eligible for this year's draft. Just based on pre-draft scouting reports and without the benefit of hindsight, how would the first 10 picks of the draft unfold?
(baseballjunkie from cali, where it's already Spring)
This is an amazingly difficult question to answer, and also quite fun. It's probably better suited for an article than for a fantasy chat answer, but since I was able to access this question ahead of time, here's what I came up with after about 30 min of research. I'll note that since I'm not familiar enough with 2014 prospects yet, I've restricted your search to 2010-2013 draftees. I'll go with:

1. Bryce Harper 2. Manny Machado 3. Gerrit Cole 4. Dylan Bundy 5. Anthony Rendon 6. Jameson Taillon 7. Bubba Starling
8. Byron Buxton 9. Carlos Correa 10. Archie Bradley

Toughest omissions for me were Francisco Lindor, Trevor Bauer, Kevin Gausman, Kris Bryant and Mark Appel. If Luc Giolito had been healthy for his senior year, he'd probably have made it on this list. Obviously that's not how we'd rank them now, and it's funny that guys like Chris Sale, Jose Fernandez, Matt Harvey and Javier Baez are left in the dust. Bubba Starling sticks out like a sore thumb, and Buxton was underrated. This exercise also reinforces how loaded the 2011 draft was. Last year's pales in comparison. (Ben Carsley)
2014-02-03 13:00:00 (link to chat)Who do you think will be a high-impact rookie pitcher in 2014? I don't expect another Harvey or Fernandez. But a guy we'll look back on and should have seen coming.
(Keith from Brooklyn)
I've seen this question a lot.

We're currently looking at Yordano Ventura coming, that's my pick for a high value fantasy guy who will make a lot of noise in 2014.

Gerrit Cole showed up in the playoffs, he's going to be a MFer next year. Ditto Sonny Gray. (Mauricio Rubio)
2014-01-21 18:00:00 (link to chat)Keeper league, trying to consolidate; Hosmer and Cole for Goldschmidt, is that an overpay?Thanks!
(Cansy from YYZ)
Hi Cansy

I think it's a bit of an overpay. Paul Goldschmidt is great, but both Eric Hosmer and Gerrit Cole have growth potential, particularly Cole. I don't know if Cole's going to be an ace this year, but he WILL be an ace at some point and in a keeper that seems like too much ceiling to give up for Goldy, even though he's obviously great. Push back a little bit on the pitcher and see what you can give up besides Cole. (Mike Gianella)
2014-01-21 18:00:00 (link to chat)20-team dynasty. Would you rather have Gerrit Cole and the 8th pick in a prospect draft (A. Bradley, J. Gray available around there), or David Price and the 15th pick in said draft (Appel, Stroman territory)?
(Jonah from Redwood)
Hi Jonah:

I think in a dynasty league I'd rather have Cole and the #8. As I alluded to in the last question, I'm really high on Cole and think he's going to rise in a hurry. This has less to do with the prospects (I think prospects have a lot of fungibility, particularly pitchers) and more to do with Cole. His ceiling is close enough to what Price is now and could be achieved in the next couple of years. Take the MLB arm with less miles on it if it can do almost as much as Price. (Mike Gianella)
2014-01-21 18:00:00 (link to chat)Thanks for not being "too good" for fantasy questions. What return of "win now" SP should I be able to garner if I put Cole on the block in a dynasty league? Or is Cole just too valuable to trade in this format? What's his SP ranking for this year? What's his "dynasty" ranking overall among SPs??
(DL from Milwaukee)
Ha ha.

If you've read through the whole chat, you probably know that I like Gerrit Cole a lot. I would want an ace back for him, but honestly I don't even know if i would do a straight up 1-for-1 for Cole at this point in a dynasty unless it was the middle of the season and one pitcher could REALLY make a difference for 1st. So yes I think he's too valuable to trade in a straight up deal in this format. For this year, I have Cole in my Top 20. I don't do dynasty rankings but there he's at least Top 15 and maybe Top 10. (Mike Gianella)
2014-01-21 18:00:00 (link to chat)Follow up the that question: In three years from now, would you rather have Cole or Price?
(Jonah from Redwood)
Hi Jonah:

Close call, but if I had to go by ceiling I'd lean Gerrit Cole. (Mike Gianella)
2014-01-17 10:00:00 (link to chat)Would you trade Profar for Cole, based on need?
(Daddyboy from Mpls)
Gerrit Cole? Hell yes. No question or hesitation. Cole has the stuff to develop into a legit number one starter. Give me that all day long. (Jason Parks)
2013-12-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)Seems like James Taillon got less love than he used to. What's that about? And what say you?
(IcePirate from Tundra)
The realities of the developmental process can tarnish the shine of a prospect. It's much easier to look sexy in the lower minors, where advanced skill-sets can produce seductive stat lines. But I focus on the scouting, and the process of development can often look ugly before it looks pretty. Remember when people were fighting for spots in the Bauer fan club based on his impressive minor league numbers, especially his strikeout totals, and the line for Cole thinned out because he wasn't dominating? Where are the Bauer backers now? I don't hear much from them anymore. That's the problem with ignoring the scouting and the realities of the developmental process, which often affects performance and production.

I'm still high on Taillon. Has he lost some shine? Yes. But he's also facing better competition than he did in the lower minors. I get asked about Taillon vs Glasnow a lot, and its a no-brainer for me. Taillon is the better prospect, and I think he will be the better major leaguer. Will he be Gerrit Cole? No. But I still see a mid-rotation type, one that gives you 200+ innings a year. Big value in that. (Jason Parks)
2013-11-19 13:00:00 (link to chat)Matt Moore, Ryan Cook, and David Robertson for Gerrit Cole and Craig Kimbrel. Fair trade?
(Jonah from Redwood)
It's not unfair, per se. But I'd take the Cole side of that deal every day of the week and twice on Sunday. (Bret Sayre)
2013-11-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Between G. Cole and J. Fernandez, who has the better season in 2014? Career?
(Nick from Pittsburgh)
I have always been a Gerrit Cole apologist and firmly believed in his front of the rotation potential, but it is pretty hard to argue with what Fernandez did in 2013. I think Cole still has some learning to do at the Major League level; lessons Fernandez learned on the job in 2013, and because of that I give Fernandez the edge in 2014. Long term, I think it's a toss-up. (Mark Anderson)
2013-11-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Gerrit Cole and Matt Moore: potential future #1's. In the next few seasons, who is the better player? In 15 years? How far do you think they go in actualizing their potential?
(Sara from Tacoma)
I'm a huge believer in Cole's present and future. Matt Moore has some otherworldly talent, but I'll take Cole in the next few years and over the next 15 years (if either lasts that long). I'll just take Cole in every respect in this discussion, largely because I think the command profile sets him apart. (Mark Anderson)
2013-11-22 14:00:00 (link to chat)Gerrit Cole v. Matt Moore: Who do you take this year (2014)? Next 5 years? Next 10? Why?
(Jess from Aspen)
What a great question. Moore has the lefty advantage, though his command has not come around as much as one would hope. Cole, on the other hand, is developing at a rocket pace. My favorite attribute in a young pitcher is the ability to improve and make adjustments, and since Cole has already exhibited that ability at the highest level (despite having less experience), I would take Cole for the next 5 or 10 years. That's no knock on Moore, who has elite potential and has flashed brilliance - in fact I would probably give him the nod for 2014, as we have a better idea of what we'll get from Moore next season.

On the jukebox: Lou Reed, "Perfect Day" (Doug Thorburn)
2013-11-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)In 2014 Gerrit Cole is _________?
(Ben from Gettysburg)
...still laughing about all of the "I'd take Bauer over Cole" lines from May/June 2011? (Nick J. Faleris)
2013-09-11 13:00:00 (link to chat)Did Gerrit Cole turn a corner against TEX? He finally seemed to use his slider as a wipeout put-away pitch and looked like a dominant ace for most of the game. Thoughts going forward?
(Mike from Lancaster)
It certainly looks like he's learning how to use the knockout stuff to its full potential, doesn't it? I watched on TV and also talked to a scout that was there behind home plate. He called it "8 velocity with an 8 slider" and said the Rangers' hitters didn't have a chance. We all know he throws strikes, and he was able to locate his fastball to both sides of the plate at will. Getting ahead with the fastball and chasing strikeouts with his slider and curve. There's no-doubt ace potential if he continues to progress like he is. I've been on the Cole bandwagon for awhile (along with Jason Parks), so I'm glad to see the development and hoping it continues. (Jason Cole)
2013-07-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)What do you make off Gerrit Cole's initial outings in the majors? It seems to me he's improving start to start though still not dominating at the level of his stuff.
(Joel from Washington, DC)
I've been very impressed. As I said before,, Cole will be a better major league pitcher than he was a minor league prospect, and he was a damn good minor league prospect. He is just scratching the surface of his promise. (Jason Parks)
2013-06-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)Gerrit Cole or Rick Porcello? 12 team mixed 5x5 league.
(jrcolwell from Minneapolis)
That's really tough, especially since we haven't seen the Ks from Cole yet. I'd lean Cole for the upside, park, and league. If he doesn't work out, there'll likely be a Porcello-esque asset available on the wire to replace him. I've always been a Porcello fan and remain a huge one, but Cole has legit #1 upside and while it's unlikely to come this year, it could. (Paul Sporer)
2013-06-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)Should I trade Gerrit Cole or Zack Wheeler for Cole Hamels in keeper points league, where I have no chance to compete this season? And if I should, who I better keep (trade partner agrees for anyone) in the team - Cole or Wheeler?
(navarra from Ukraine)
Not if you're out of it. I love Hamels, but keep the upside of your young studs instead. I might trade Cole or Wheeler for a hot hitter since hitters are a bit more certain. (Paul Sporer)
2013-05-16 13:00:00 (link to chat)Archie Bradley: Top pitching prospect in baseball?
(Liam from TX)
We are quick to discount/promote players based on small samples. Here's the truth: Bradley should have been ranked higher coming into this season, and he's certainly making a very good case for the top spot at his position, but its not like Taijuan Walker or Zack Wheeler or even Gerrit Cole have fallen on their faces or regressed. I'll explore this in more detail when we produce the mid-season Top 50, but its hard to say right now. Bradley will be in the Top 10; I guarantee that. Will he be the top arm? Not sure yet. (Jason Parks)
2013-05-16 13:00:00 (link to chat)Jameson Taillon appears to be having a better year, numbers wise, than Gerrit Cole. I realize this is a superficial statement/comparison on which to base this question, but possible to think Taillon ends up as the better MLB player? Likelihood if yes?
(btownsley36 from Crisco Bathtub)
It's possible to think that, yes. Taillon wasn't a late-round pick or anything. He was arguably the best arm in his class, and held frontline projections. He has the stuff to reach those heights. (Jason Parks)
2013-05-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)In a dynasty league in which I'm competing, but I'm weak at SP, I can trade 2 prospect picks, Gerrit Cole, & Brian McCann for Chris Sale and Alex Cobb. I'm leaning no because I lurve me some Cole. Still, I have Carlos Santana, and with Josh Johnson, Halladay, & Haren all disappointing, I could use the help (Rest of staff is Medlen, Moore, Gallardo, Wainwright, and CC). Should I pull the trigger?
(Jim Clancy from Exhibition Stadium)
I love Cole, too, but if you're in contention to win this year, you do the deal. Prospect love kills folks in these leagues bc they get married to endless cycle of the future and then they want to compete now and have future assets. Just focus on now. I'd do the deal. (Paul Sporer)
2013-04-16 20:00:00 (link to chat)Im in a 12 team dynasty league where you have a 10 player minor league roster and I just got offered Gerrit Cole for Wil Myers Im struggling trading a bat for a pitcher especially one that could be Jay Bruce-esque but Cole does punch people out... thoughts?
(alkal247 from Philadelphia)
They're very, very close in value, but when in doubt, I lean towards the hitter. (Bret Sayre)
2013-04-16 20:00:00 (link to chat)Wainwright counts. Any prospects you think could be true #1s or other vets that have that potential?
(nubber from tx)
A few others: Darvish, Matt Moore, Gerrit Cole, Dylan Bundy. (Bret Sayre)
2013-04-16 20:00:00 (link to chat)Hey Bret, how close do you think Allen Webster is to getting a call up? I currently roster Hultzen, Gerrit Cole and Gausman in a dynasty league. I have one pitching slot open that is occupied by Edwin Jackson. Are any others droppable for Webster? Also, Mike Olt is he a continue to hold onto prospect? I am holding Puig, Soler, Baez and Arcia(Twins) currently.
(Mr. Slate from Bedrock)
If he keeps pitching like he has been, it won't be long. But even if he got the call up tomorrow, I wouldn't drop Edwin Jackson for him. Mike Olt is worth holding, but if there's a better use of that spot, I'm not sure you'll miss him all that much if you had to cut bait. (Bret Sayre)
2013-04-04 11:00:00 (link to chat)If called up, Gerrit Cole can help Pirates right now since he is better than Jonathan Sanchez at present. true of false? Is he the only pitching prospect better than their no.5 in major league rotation? What about Taillon / Wheeler / Bauer / Walker / Hultzen?
(Jim from Seattle)
True. Cole could pitch in the Pirates rotation this season and represent an upgrade. (Jason Parks)
2013-04-12 14:00:00 (link to chat)Of the top Minor League arms, who's mechanics impress you the most/least?
(Shawnykid23 from Newington)
We are really in a renaissance of young pitchers right now with respect to mechanics. I usually have many reservations with prospects, but the top arms right now are legit.

I really like Bundy because of the combination of stable baseline + room to improve. Taijuan Walker is fascinating, and though he is currently more volatile than Bundy, his peak delivery is even more impressive (I also dig the frame). Jameson Taillon has an incredibly advanced delivery for his age, and while Gerrit Cole has excellent mechanics and might have the higher ceiling, I believe Taillon will enjoy more immediate success when he is promoted to the bigs.

The one delivery that drives me nuts is Tyler Skaggs. He is completely inefficient in the effort to create deception, and I think that MLB hitters are going to expose his weaknesses. (Doug Thorburn)
2013-03-27 20:00:00 (link to chat)Gerrit Cole, Heredia, and Anibal Sanchez for Braun in real MLB salary league, good deal? I still have some decent pitching prospects left, and I figure with Goldschmidt, Miggy, McCutchen, and Braun I am set offensively.
(Jay from CA)
Yes, I'd make that deal. It's only pitching, after all. (Bret Sayre)
2013-03-06 20:00:00 (link to chat)I inherited a team in a Dynasty: I need a 2B and a SS. Asdrubal Cabrera and Danny Espinosa are available(Espinosa has 2B and SS eligibility. However, I'm in the middle of a rebuilding and Oscar Taveras is available along with Gerrit Cole. I have 1st pick. Who would you go with? I am leaning Taveras.
(MerleDixon from PA)
Me too. (Paul Singman)
2013-02-25 11:00:00 (link to chat)I too share the #coleluv. Not many pitchers can boast those kinda grades on 3-4 different pitches. Could it all come together for Gerrit Cole in the bigs?
(Saintly Steven from Puerto Rico)
If it does he has a chance to be a legit number one, which I don't say very often. (Jason Parks on the Top 101 Prospects)
2013-02-22 13:00:00 (link to chat)Sam, will Gerrit Cole win a Cy Young award ? check the crystal ball,mate. thanks
(boatman44 from Liverpool )
Yes. He will win it in 2018 but he'll really have deserved it more in 2015.

Actually, you know, for the 1990s and 2000s so many CYs were won by Pedro, Clemens, Maddux and Johnson that not that many pitchers ever got to win it. There really isn't that guy right now, unless it's Strasburg coming along or maybe in retrospect we'll say Verlander. But the Cy Young might end up being something that everybody gets to win over the next 15 years. (Sam Miller)
2013-02-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)What do you call a sandwich with many types of cold cuts, L, T, Oil and Vinegar? It's a sub, right? Not a hoagie. Nor a wedge. Should have bought a striker. Gerrit Cole is to Jeff Karstens as Shiner Bock is to Bud?
(Name from Place)
Sure, call it a sub or just a sammich. Im not a big fan of Shiner, despite my Texas roots. It doesn't hold a good chill and it gives me a headache if I consume more than three beers, which is often the case. (Jason Parks)
2013-01-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)In a keeper league w/ farm system (7x7 obp, xbh,hld, qs)- I am being offered my choice of Matt Moore or David Price, Tyler Skaggs, R. Soriano, Jonny Venters, and two-4 first round picks for my Gerrit Cole and Craig Kimbrel, and Clayton Kershaw. Yes, No, or Maybe So?
(Mitch from Buffalo)
I'm not sure what's going to be available at those picks, but unless it is substantial talent I would pass. (Josh Shepardson)
2013-01-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)Super-Deep Dynasty league with auction draft... $500 budgets for 25 roster spots. If there's one player you want to build you team around (maybe 3-4 players if you're feeling generous!), who are they/is he?
(Steve from Dallas)
If starting from scratch, I'd absolutely love to build around Mike Trout or Bryce Harper, so will everyone else though. I'd probably try to nab a pair of high upside prospects/youngsters who have yet to breakout in the bigs such as Jurickson Profar, Manny Machado, or Gerrit Cole. Buying in on a young player coming off a disappointing year such as Eric Hosmer would also make a lot of sense. (Josh Shepardson)
2013-01-16 13:30:00 (link to chat)Other than Profar, Taveras, Myers and Bundy whom I anticipate ranking in the top 5 of most top prospect lists, who are the remaining top 3-5 offensive and SP prospects in the minors?
(Brian from Worcester MA)
On the pitching side you're looking at guys like Gerrit Cole, Zack Wheeler, Jose Fernandez and Jameson Taillon fitting in that top group. Of the position players, Byron Buxton, Travis d'Arnaud, Xander Bogaerts, and Francisco Lindor fit the bill. (Mark Anderson)
2013-01-16 13:30:00 (link to chat)Gerrit Cole seems to be getting all the attention right now. Do you think Jameson Taillon really has #1 potential?
(captnamerca from FL)
Cole gets a lot of attention because of his outstanding stuff and proximity to the big leagues. That recognition of Cole shouldn't make you believe Taillon is being overlooked. He is a strong talent in his own right and has front-of-the-rotation potential. I think Cole's ultimate ceiling will be higher, but Taillon's ceiling won't be anything to sneeze at. (Mark Anderson)
2013-01-16 13:30:00 (link to chat)Has Gerrit Cole been pitching up to his "stuff." I recall reading/hearing a lot last season about how while everyone is in agreement that he can be a monster, he hadn't been attacking hitters w/ his best.
(Michael from Bedford)
That's always been a question with Cole. He has absurd raw stuff but the results don't always match. That said, I'm not sure we could have expected much more as he pitched across three levels in 2012. He was dominating nearly all of the time. When I saw him live last year, I could quibble that I would have liked to have seen him attack with his fastball further down in the order, or that he could have played his change-up off his fastball a bit better, but for all I know, they were asking him to work on things in those instances. Everything I saw was fantastic and I have huge expectations for him. (Mark Anderson)
2012-12-19 13:00:00 (link to chat)Which player will develop into the better pitcher: Taijuan Walker or Gerrit Cole or Zack Wheeler?
(Kai from SLO)
Wheeler. I was impressed with what I saw from him this year. Electric, four pitch arsenal and the knowledge of how to use it. The other arms are very, very good, but I'm a Wheeler guy. (Chris Mellen)
2013-01-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)Happy New Year! In trying to access Diamond Scape Scouting, I'm running into a lot of 404 error pages. FYI. Anyway can you give the OFP grades you gave to Stephen Strasburg, Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Kevin Gausman, Dylan Bundy, Taijuan Walker, and Jose Fernandez? Thanks!
(AJ from Phoenix)
Hi AJ! Yes, DSS was taken off line when I decided to take the scouting services to private clients. The plan is still to bring it back online with a portion of the draft stuff available to readers (though Baseball Prospectus will really be where the writing is done). Here are the OFP rankings assigned to these players by DSS -- as a word of warning, this will help you see how I comparatively viewed the players at draft time, but the scale shouldn't really be projected against what Jason and the prospect team has doing with the Prospect Lists:
Strasburg - 64/67
Cole - 62/63
Gausman - 59/62
Bundy - 58/62
Taillon - 57/61
Fernandez - 55/57
Walker - 52/56 (Nick Faleris)
2013-01-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)Which starter would you rather build your rotation around and why? Zack Wheeler, Gerrit Cole or Taijuan Walker
(Kai from SLO)
Give me Cole simply because of the louder stuff and prototypical build. Could chance he'll be able to rack up innings and even if he loses some effectiveness due to an easy to track arm, the stuff is good enough to be effective at a mid-rotation level. (Nick Faleris)
2012-12-28 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thanks Geoff, I was offered Gerrit Cole for Wil Myers in a keeper league. Your gut reaction: make the deal?
(Keith from Manchester, CT)
Hi Keith, thanks for the question. These are fun deals and I could see this one from either side. Cole comes with greater risk because pitchers, but what a ceiling. I think I'd give Myers for him. (Geoff Young)
2012-11-15 14:00:00 (link to chat)Who are the next wave of prospects that are going to be MLB all-stars and upper-echelon players? Trevor Bauer? Billy Hamilton? Wil Myers?
(Steve G. from Athens, OH)
As you know, there is no such thing as a can't miss prospect, but all three are in that conversation (though Hamilton will be a bit more valuable in fantasy than real life). You can add to the list Dylan Bundy, Jurickson Profar, Manny Machado, and Gerrit Cole, among others. Keep an eye on Jason Parks and his prospect teams' Top 10 lists and their eventual Top 100 list. (Derek Carty)
2012-10-23 13:00:00 (link to chat)Have you figured out why guys like Hak Ju Lee randomly drive Gerrit Cole's fastball over the fenced area? I find it hard to believe he randomly gets hit so hard with such monster stuff.
(Jesse from Pittsburgh)
Good question. A good fastball is more than just velocity. It's like a pretty smile. Sure, it can make everything better, and against certain competition, a good smile can clean up the room. But quality hitter can square velocity, which makes movement, deception, and location big parts of the overall fastball equation, especially at the major league level. If they can see it, and it stays true, hitters with bat speed and/or fast triggers can put the barrel on it. If the pitch has some wiggle, the velo plays up even more because the barrel to ball relationship will become more difficult to establish. (Jason Parks)
2012-09-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)For Fantasy purposes please rank Bundy (AL East concern), Taijuan Walker (SafeCo), and Gerrit Cole (NL)? Bundy gets the nod as a regular prospect, but factoring in ballparks/opponents would this adjust your rankings speaking purely for fantasy baseball.
(Harold from NYC)
I'd rank them Cole, Bundy, Walker for 2013, switch Cole/Bundy for long-term. (Bradley Ankrom)
2012-08-23 13:00:00 (link to chat)Taijuan Walker made your top 10 prospects in the minors list a few weeks ago, as did Dylan Bundy and Gerrit Cole. Where do hurlers Jose Fernandez, Archie Bradley, and Matt Barnes factor in to your pitching prospect rankings?
(Francois from Toronto)
I would have Fernandez, Bradley, and Barnes in my top 25. Those are legit arms. I really, really like them. Barnes is the big sleeper there, He doesn't have the same extreme ceiling, but he can bring it and he's going to sneak up on people and develop into a quality major league starter. (Jason Parks)
2012-08-14 14:00:00 (link to chat)Assuming they both live up to their potential (that's a big assumption, I know), who do you think is better: Jameson Taillon or Gerrit Cole?
(captnamerca from FL)
I'm a sucker for pitcher strikeouts, so right now I'd go with Cole. They're both great talents though (no newsflash that). The new CBA really is a shame because I loved, just loved, what the Pirates were doing. Now they're hamstrung to a certain extent anyway by the new rules. I don't think it's going to destroy the game as some analysts seem to, but I do think that it evens the playing field. It is much more difficult for the really smart teams to exert their advantage under this system than under the previous one.

The Pirates have some good young players though for the first time in a while and that's a great thing for the Pirates and for baseball in general. (Matthew Kory)
2012-08-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)Okay .... a real question now ... :-) If the Pirates do in fact reach the playoffs, can they rely on anyone beyond Burnett and McDonald .... do they even have a reliable #3?
(dianagram from VORGville)
Reliable, no, but the potential is there for Bedard to be that guy in October. This shouldn't be a problem in 2013 with Gerrit Cole around... man, I love Gerrit Cole. (Bradley Ankrom)
2012-08-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)Okay .... a real question now ... :-) If the Pirates do in fact reach the playoffs, can they rely on anyone beyond Burnett and McDonald .... do they even have a reliable #3?
(dianagram from VORGville)
Reliable, no, but the potential is there for Bedard to be that guy in October. Wandy could be that guy, too, This shouldn't be a problem in 2013 with Gerrit Cole around... man, I love Gerrit Cole. (Bradley Ankrom)
2012-08-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)Question on Julio Teheran. I've heard from a few places that his terrible numbers are the result of his working on a third pitch. Are there any numbers to support a large jump in curve balls thrown or should braves fans be legitimately worried?
(Okie brave from Baton rouge )
He has been working on his curve at Triple-A Gwinnett and, given his age, I'd say we're not quite at the point where we need to be legitimately concerned. It seems like he's been around forever, but he's younger than Gerrit Cole and has thrown 260 more Triple-A innings than Cole. Patience. (Bradley Ankrom)
2012-06-21 13:00:00 (link to chat)Are you surprised on Gerrit Cole's promotion? I have heard you gave him a floor of backend starter the day he was drafted.
(Cap'tn Cole from Ripping through minors)
Not surprised with promotion. He's going to be very good. He's already nearing that point. It can take time, and when we start to assume timetables we can get into trouble. The Pirates have a plan. (Jason Parks)
2012-05-21 14:00:00 (link to chat)I know Bundy is getting all the hype but Gerrit Cole seems to be getting it done as well. If the pirates could go back in time, would they make the same choice?
(Don Draper from New York)
He's been quite good, but Bundy has been crazy insane. As far as going back in time, if you missed it, I had Bundy as the No. 1 prospect in the draft last year. (Kevin Goldstein)
2012-05-21 14:00:00 (link to chat)Convince me why, if the 2011 MLB Draft were done today, why Gerrit Cole would still go 1-1.
(Kelvin from Manhattan)
Because he has better stuff than any of 'em. (Kevin Goldstein)
2012-05-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)This season I drafted Bauer, Bundy, and Gary Brown with my first 3 dynasty picks, taking my two favorite prospects and CF that I badly needed. Did I make a mistake passing on Gerrit Cole with my third pick, or did I make the right move in filling my need?
(faztradamus from Chicago)
Maybe a small mistake. With prospects, I don't like to worry too much about need, but Brown is certainly a great prospect himself. (Derek Carty)
2012-04-04 13:00:00 (link to chat)Is there a tougher A level rotation than Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Colton Cain? They are stronger than many AA rotations.
(Chris from Cincinnati)
That's nasty. Two Texans in one rotation? Also, some guy named Gerrit Cole? That's not fair to other teams. I can't wait to see that team in action. Nasty. (Jason Parks)
2012-03-23 12:00:00 (link to chat)In a dynasty league a guy has been asking me a lot about Banuelos. The only player he has that I am interested in is Gerrit Cole. Obviously a heads up trade is out of the question. How much more would you want (as a Cole owner) in addition to ManBan (use players as an example)?
(Donald from Oak Park)
I think Cole has more upside but is also riskier due to the neck up issues. I really like Banuelos myself and his ability to change speeds. I'd rather have him than Cole right now. (Jason Collette)
2012-02-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)Gerrit Cole over Shelby Miller. First time I've seen someone do that. Could you give me a one sentence explanation? Thanks
(Ryan from GR)
Way more stuff. (Kevin Goldstein)

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