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Mark Anderson stops by to take your questions on prospects, scouting, and our recent prospect rankings in his inaugural BP chat.
Mark Anderson: I am a couple of minutes early but I'm ready to talk baseball, prospects, scouting and whatever else is on your mind. Thanks for coming out for my first BP chat! I'll stick around as long as I can. Let's go!
Rex Little (Big Bear, CA): Any idea why Travis Snider has been so underwhelming? Were his minor league stats not that impressive if adjusted for context, or does he have a specific weakness which minor league pitchers can't exploit but major leaguers can?
Mark Anderson: Snider's minor league stats were extremely impressive, particularly in the context of age and league. With hindsight as our friend, I think we can see that the swing-and-miss issues were real and we needed to see more ability to make adjustments against advanced pitching. He remains very talented but has not shown an ability to adjust to how he is being pitched. That's a big problem and something he will have to overcome to even approach his potential. Even though he is still relatively young, I am not overly optimistic that he's going to suddenly put it all together.
Chris Mellen (BP's Dark Corridors): Thanks for the chat Mark! Can you explain why I didn't list Ryan Lavarnway on the Red Sox top-10 25-and-under list? Has his stock fallen that much?
Mark Anderson: Ah, Mr. Mellen...just as you have, I have seen a ton of Lavarnway the last few years. His performance in the big leagues in 2012 was very surprising to me, and frankly I wasn't that impressed with him in Pawtucket either. Ultimately, I think he will hit enough to survive on a big league roster, but he's a man without a position and with the newer depth in the Red Sox system, I'm not sure he deserved a spot on your U25 list.
NoahB (San Diego): who's more likely to have a fantasy impact this season, Oscar Taveras or Jurickson Profar?
Mark Anderson: Honestly, I'm not sure either will make a significant impact on the fantasy front in 2013. Taveras doesn't have a clear line to the big leagues right now, unless the Cardinals are willing to push him into center field. Profar is in a similar situation in that the Rangers would have to make room for him, moving either Andrus or Kinsler to another position. Both are great long term fantasy options, but they may only provide minimal value in 2013.
Bryce Brentz (Pawtucket): do I still have the potential to be a 25+ homer guy for the red sox?
Mark Anderson: You certainly have the raw power to produce at that level, but I'm not convinced you're going to consistently hit at a level to sustain that type of power.
kevin (hi): aloha mark, what can we expect in kolten wong's first season and his career?
Mark Anderson: Aloha, Kevin! Glad to have a question from Hawaii, a place I love dearly. I'll be back for another visit in December!
Like most prospects, I would expect Wong to have his ups and downs during his debut campaign. Long term, I like him to hit in the .280-.285 range with a 20-25 doubles and 20 steals; overall a quality player.
jlarsen (Chicago): With the Rays likely sanctioned in Int'l Free Agency next year and 2 early picks in the draft, do you think they'll go the "safe" route and draft 2 "easy sign" college players or do you think they'll mix things up and take risks on high-upside guys?
Mark Anderson: While I can't speak with any certainty on the subject, I would expect them to do a bit of both. They will have a fair amount of money at their disposal in the draft and I can see them being aggressive with a few picks while also playing it safe (and thereby less expensive) on a few others.
sogcomando (Coalition forces in Afghanistan): Dylan Bundy getting a lot of buzz about his potential. In your opinion, is there more risk involved with Bundy achieving his ceiling because he chose not to pitch in college or is he the type of talent whose arm development you don't worry about because he is ready to get major league hitters out now?
Mark Anderson: I don't think Bundy's (or any pitchers) ability to achieve their ceiling is tied to their decision to attend college or not. By turning pro these players are subjected to some of the best coaching and developmental professionals the sport has to offer. That's a huge benefit.
Bundy is an exceptional talent, and one that would be a premium prospect whether he went to college or straight to the pros. From his personal perspective, given how quickly he's been able to move through the minor leagues, I'd say he made the right choice.
Ed (San Diego): Mark, thanks for the chat. What is your take on Cameron Maybin? Will he put his potential on the stat sheet this year?
Mark Anderson: My pleasure, Ed. I've always liked Maybin, dating back to his days in the Detroit system. I think his tools play pretty well right now but there is still room for improvement. He's still only 25 and his walk and strikeout rates actually improved last year, despite his perceived struggles at the plate. I don't think he's going to turn into the Eric Davis-type monster he was once billed as, but I do believe he can still take steps forward; those steps just may not always be visible on the stat sheet.
Jim (Oakland): Mark, bridge the gap between Addison Russell and Carlos Correa. Is it really as wide as people say it is? Thanks!
Mark Anderson: I'm not sure the gap is huge, Jim. The biggest gap for me is the defensive profile. I don't believe Russell will be able to stick at shortstop long term. Despite the improvements he made to his body last year, I'm not sure he can maintain that. Correa, while a big kid, is more natural at shortstop and I think he will stay there long term. In addition, Correa's natural hitting ability speaks more loudly to me, allowing his entire offensive game to show up in games. I think both can be really good players, but I will give the edge to the up-the-middle guy with fewer questions about the projection of his hit tool.
Jason (Denver): What is your assessment on Josh Rutledge? Can he put together a 20/20 season this year? Or will his poor plate discipline hold him back? Thanks for the chat.
Mark Anderson: His plate discipline is a concern for me, but I think he can still be a quality player despite that. I don't think he can post a 20-20 season in 2013 but he should contribute significantly.
Brian (Atlanta): Nobody is higher on Andrelton Simmons than the D-backs. He certainly offers a great deal of defensive skills to any major league team. My question, does he offer something to get excited about for fantasy owners? What can he do at the plate and on the base paths? Thanks, Mark.
Mark Anderson: He's a tough guy for fantasy owners, Brian. His defense could make him a big name in the game, but his fantasy value likely won't match that real-life status. I think he can provide a fantasy team with everyday at-bats at a premium position, some batting average and 15+ steals.
baseballjunkie (cali): Welcome, Mark! I only have room for 2 out of Cole, Walker and Fernandez in a dynasty league... who gets cut?
Mark Anderson: You really can't go wrong with any combination of two out of those three. All three have front of the rotation potential. Walker has the most strides to make to reach his ceiling while the other two offer a touch more certainty. Depending on the rest of your roster, I might be inclined to go the route of the two pitchers with slightly more certainty.
baseballjunkie (cali): Who will be the next Trout... or at least a lesser true 5 tool talent?
Mark Anderson: Mike Trout is a freak; a generational talent. We need to stop looking for the next Mike Trout and recognize how rare his talent is.
Ashitaka1110 (Houston, TX): What would Robbie Grossman have to do to be a solid starting outfielder for the Astros (long-term that is; he'd only have to hit about .250 to be better than what they have currently)?
Mark Anderson: Grossman can certainly play in the big leagues, I'm just not sure I see a regular. He lacks the ability to hang in the middle of the outfield and he doesn't fit the offensive profile most teams look for on a corner. He can help in Houston this year, but they will need to upgrade as they get closer to fielding a consistently competitive team.
Scott (Montgomery): Do you think David Dahl starts out in Low A and do you see him moving up quickly for the Rockies?
Mark Anderson: I'm an enormous fan of David Dahl and I would almost completely shocked if he didn't start out in Low-A in 2013. He's ready for that, both physically and mentally/emotionally. I think his baseball skills would allow the Rockies to be aggressive with his promotion schedule through the A-ball levels, but I think he will have to slow down at the upper levels and make some adjustments.
Kai (SLO): Which pitcher will make a bigger impact in the majors: Kyle Crick or Clayton Blackburn? Seems that consensus is Crick has higher ceiling, but Blackburn is blowing projections out of the water with his advanced command and control...?
Mark Anderson: Blackburn has really excelled in the minor leagues and he looks like a good bet to contribute at the back of a Major League rotation. That said, if Crick continues to develop and approaches his potential, he has a chance to blow past Blackburn and max out as a number two or three starter.
BJ (Boston): Mark, thanks for doing this chat. Will you be releasing some sort of Top 100+ prospects list in addition to your Top 15s for each team?
Mark Anderson: Yes. We will be releasing a Top 101 here at BP, in addition to the Top 10 lists that Jason and the team are continuing to crank out each week. Personally, yes, I will also be releasing a Top 150 at my site, probably later in February.
Brian (Worcester MA): Other than Profar, Taveras, Myers and Bundy whom I anticipate ranking in the top 5 of most top prospect lists, who are the remaining top 3-5 offensive and SP prospects in the minors?
Mark Anderson: On the pitching side you're looking at guys like Gerrit Cole, Zack Wheeler, Jose Fernandez and Jameson Taillon fitting in that top group. Of the position players, Byron Buxton, Travis d'Arnaud, Xander Bogaerts, and Francisco Lindor fit the bill.
William (Pensacola, FL): What player was a let down to you after you watched him the first time.
Mark Anderson: I try to go into every viewing limiting my preconceived notions. That said, given all the hype surrounding Jonathan Singleton when he was with Clearwater (FSL), I was a little disappointed in what I saw. He looked stiff and slow at the plate. He's loosened up as he has matured and looks more like what he was billed as now, and you're seeing the results on the field as well.
captnamerca (FL): Projections on Gary Sanchez's ability to stick at catcher have seemed to move from "no freaking way" to "maybe" in the past year or so. What do you think? Is there real progress, or is it more wishful thinking from a team that looks to be starting Francisco Cervelli in 2013?
Mark Anderson: I think there was some real progress in 2012. He showed up with a better attitude and worked harder at his craft last year than he had in the past, and I think it showed. That said, there's a lot of room to grow and improve behind the dish and he will need to take a couple more big steps before he truly looks the part of an everyday catcher in the big leagues. I think the bat can play off the position, but he become immensely valuable if he sticks at catcher.
SJLedet (Alexandria): Will Rondon open the season as closer for the Tigers, and if so, can he be effective?
Mark Anderson: I'm not sure if he opens the season as the appointed closer, but I do think he will be an impact member of the bullpen from Opening Day forward. Rondon is a tremendous talent. His fastball gets all the attention but he has both a slider and change-up that can be weapons. I think he will be Detroit's closer at some point in 2013, maybe not on Opening Day thought.
Rob (Alaska): Thanks for the chat. Apropos of the Brewers under 25 list today, what kind of production do you expect from Jean Segura this year, and then at his peak?
Mark Anderson: I think Brewers fans should expect a big jump forward from Segura this year. He is a really nice offensive talent. He has bat speed and good hands. The ball jumps off his bat and I think you could see a .280-.290 hitter with lots of doubles and 10-15 home runs at his peak. If he remains at shortstop, which he should, that's a dynamite talent.
Chopper (Indy): Thanks for your time, Mark!
What do you think the ETA is for Bryan Buxton and Jorge Soler, and what type of hitter do you expect George Spring to be?
Mark Anderson: Both players are quite a ways away. Buxton probably heads to the Midwest League in 2013 but it could be a rocky road through that circuit. I think he's going to move slowly at first and then as things come together, he could race to the big leagues. He could be on the radar at the end of 2016. As for Soler, I think he might be a year ahead of that timeline, despite the fact that the Cubs may send him back to Low-A to start this year.
captnamerca (FL): Gerrit Cole seems to be getting all the attention right now. Do you think Jameson Taillon really has #1 potential?
Mark Anderson: Cole gets a lot of attention because of his outstanding stuff and proximity to the big leagues. That recognition of Cole shouldn't make you believe Taillon is being overlooked. He is a strong talent in his own right and has front-of-the-rotation potential. I think Cole's ultimate ceiling will be higher, but Taillon's ceiling won't be anything to sneeze at.
Benji (STL): Is Wilin Rosario the real deal?
Mark Anderson: I guess that depends on what you mean by "real deal," Benji. His 2012 season looked about as expected with a modest average, few walks and lots of power. I think he can continue to provide that type of production, which makes him a really good offensive catcher.
Paul (DC): Miguel Gonzalez came out of no where to have a darn good 2nd half of the season with the O's. How good are his chances to duplicate that success?
Mark Anderson: I'm not really sure, Paul. I haven't looked that closely at what changed with Gonzalez when he arrived in the big leagues last year. My gut tells me to question his ability to duplicate that performance, but given what he did last year, nothing would surprise me.
DetroitDale (Florida (eternal spring training)): Why the hurry to trade Rick Porcello? Wouldn't they be better off keeping him in the 5 hole of the rotation and Smyly in Toledo until the inevitable injury?
Failing that, what is little Ricky worth in prospects?
Mark Anderson: I don't see the rush to trade Porcello, personally. I think he's worth more to the Tigers on the roster than he is in trade. If the Tigers are overwhelmed by an offer, then I think it makes sense to move him. Otherwise, it makes sense for the Tigers to hold onto him seeing as they have precious little depth at starting pitcher.
Jake (Kalamazoo): Do you think this is what Jeremy Hellickson is? Or is there still room for growth?
Mark Anderson: There hasn't been a lot of projection in Hellickson's game for quite some time, so expecting some at this stage wouldn't make much sense to me. I think he's largely maxed out developmentally, but he's pretty damn good as it stands right now.
Paul (DC): Is catcher (Zunino, D'Arnaud, Sanchez, Hedges, Brantley, Swihart, Trahan) or shortstop (Simmons, Baez, Correa, Story, Russell, Lee, Profar, Lindor) deeper in high quality prospects?
Mark Anderson: I'll take the shortstop crop you listed over the crop of catchers.
Matt E (London): What do you make of Kaleb Cowart? Do you think he becomes an above average major leaguer?
Mark Anderson: I do think he can reach that level of production. I was impressed with the strides he made in terms of his approach at the plate in 2012 and I think there are hints that he could take another step forward in that regard with improved pitch recognition. He has a classic third base profile with good defense, solid hitting ability and legit power. I think he has a chance to be a really nice player.
Kphan34 (Manchester, CT): Thanks Mark. Will Oscar Taveras draw enough walks as a major leaguer to have a solid OPB, maybe above .350, or is that unrealistic given his approach and ability to barrel up just about everything?
Mark Anderson: His approach may not lend to many walks, but I firmly believe he's going to hit for enough average to support that kind of OBP. I'm a big believer in the bat and if he begins to approach his considerable ceiling, the walks could increase as pitchers work around him and he learns to approach his at-bats differently.
Paul (DC): Is it too soon to reevaluate who went where in the top 10 in the 2013 draft?
Mark Anderson: I assume you mean the 2012 draft, Paul. If so, then yes, it is absolutely too early for that.
Paul (DC): Jose Fernandez seems to have made the single biggest prospect status leap from 2012 to 2013. What possible negatives exist in his game to temper over exhuberance on his future greatness?
Mark Anderson: The consistency of his curveball needs to continue developing, as well as his command profile. Both have projection and the curveball in particular could become a plus asset for him.
Donnie Baseball (SoCal): Do you think Bruce Rondon is ready to step into the closer role and hold it?
Mark Anderson: I touched on Rondon earlier, but yes, I do think he is ready. He was a completely different pitcher last year, both in terms of his attitude on the mound and his execution. He is the best relief pitcher prospect in the game for me.
Steve G. (Athens, OH): For pitchers and hitters, what is the most important thing kids should grasp while playing HS and College Ball?
Mark Anderson: For pitchers, I'm a huge advocate of learning to move the fastball around the zone and gaining feel for a change-up. For hitters, understanding what it means to have an approach at the plate and developing the ability to learn from each at-bat is an essential skill.
Nightman (Philly, PA): Do you think the Jays with their abundant (raw) talent in the low minors, in addition to the 10th pick this upcoming June, have a chance to be a top 10 system in baseball again in three or four years? With a little luck perhaps?
Mark Anderson: They have plenty of raw talent and could certainly pull that off. It all depends on what additional minor league assets they sacrifice to augment the big league club as they look to take advantage of a present window in the AL East.
Grubby (Possumjaw, AR): Does Jonathan Singleton have a 30HR .300 season in him, or am I smoking the Wacky Tobacky?
Mark Anderson: That's a little rich for me. I think he can hit .280 with 25 bombs a year, which is still a very nice player.
Brian Hennessy (MA): Big fan of your website! How did you get into scouting?
Mark Anderson: Thanks, Brian. In all honesty, it just kind of happened. I started doing some writing, went to more games, met some scouts and that aspect of the game just appealed to me. I tried to learn as much as I could and continued my development over the years. There are a lot of scouts and industry professionals that have been a huge help in my learning process, and I can't thank them enough.
BJ (Boston): 20 team dynasty league, pitchers tend to be valued most - who would you choose? Gausman, Zimmer, Fried, Giolito, Crick
Mark Anderson: Zimmer and Crick are a step behind the other three for me. Giolito has the biggest raw ceiling but also the most questions because of his current recovery from injury. Gausman and Fried both could develop into monsters. Hard to go wrong with either of them.
Rockford (Flowmont): Donavon Tate will he and when will he amount to something on a ML field?
Mark Anderson: I don't see it happening.
Dan (Cleveland): What can the Indians expect from Lonnie Chisenhall this year? Will he be able to hit lefties well enough for a full time gig?
Mark Anderson: He's always struggled against lefties, and likely always will. I do think he can play every day in spite of that though, largely because he still shows some pop against southpaws. I think he'll show more power in 2013, though it may be at the expense of his average.
Mark68 (A Mile High): Can Peter Bourjos repeat his 2011 season, or will he end up on the bench, with Trout moving back to center and Kole Calhoun or (ugh) Vernon Wells in left?
Mark Anderson: I don't expect to see those kind of numbers out of Bourjos again. Even without that, I think he can still play everyday for a Major League team. Ultimately, I think he'll get pushed aside by Trout in center field, assuming they have reasonable options on the corners.
Quincy (The A): As a life long Braves fan, I have a questions about a couple of prospects. Evan Gattis and Edward Salcedo. What does the timetable on each look like? Do you think either will develop into an impact player at the major league level?
Mark Anderson: Gattis needs to be healthy to make an impact, something that's been quite tough for him. He's not a catcher at the big league level and he has to hit at the top of his abilities to stand up on an outfield corner. I think he ends up as more of a solid player than one that makes a major impact.
With Salcedo, the tools have always been present, but the approach in the batter's box still lags behind. I think some of the issues he faced around the time he signed, keeping him off the field for a while, really set him back a bit. He's still only 21-years old and he has everything needed to be an impact player. He carries a lot of risk, but he has the makeup and work ethic to pull it off.
Kai (SLO): Can you compare the potential of AJ Cole and Taylor Guerrieri? Both seem to have very bright futures with their respective organizations that have a history of developing high quality arms
Mark Anderson: Very different prospects for me. Cole is a pure arm strength guy that is still learning how to pitch. Guerrieri has an advanced feel for pitching and he turned in a tremendous season in the NYPL, even with reduced velocity.
Guerrieri is a considerably better prospect in my eyes. He carries less risk and still has a considerable ceiling. Cole is very raw and has a lot more flame-out potential.
Matt (Chicago): Can Joc Pederson handle CF? Would he, DJ Davis, Brian Goodwin, or David Dahl be in your top 50 prospects?
Mark Anderson: I don't see Pederson fitting in center field. He doesn't really fit that high on my overall prospect rankings.
Dahl would absolutely be in my Top 50. Goodwin would be in the mix. I think Davis needs to develop some before he's in that group.
Pretend GM (Palookaville): Thanks for the chat, Mark. If you don't mind a fantasy question, which OF do you like more, David Dahl or Byron Buxton?
Mark Anderson: Buxton's ceiling is considerably higher. Dahl is a really good prospect and I'm a huge fan, but he's not in Buxton's class.
Scott (LA): Why do you think there have there been such a downgrade in the potential for Gary Brown? Factor in a low BABIP of .318 for a burner, a slow start in an advanced pitcher friendly league and the fact that he turned things around in the middle of the year isn't he close to the same guy people were drooling over last year? His walk and strikeout rates were steady and his speed/defence project as elite. Are the scouting reports on his swing so bad that they can't envision his bat playing at least as good as guys like Angel Pagan or Shane Victorino?
Mark Anderson: I'm not sure scouts opinions of him have changed all that much. He made some alterations to his swing in the second half -- something that was absolutely necessary for his long term success -- and the results were very good. He still needs to prove those alterations can hold up over a full season and that he can make the necessary adjustments as pitchers re-adjust to him. I think he's a quality big leaguer, just not a superstar.
Earl (The Present): What kind of offense will Lindor provide upon becoming a major leaguer?
Mark Anderson: I think he can hit in the .280 range with 20+ doubles, 10 home runs and a handful of triples.
Kai (SLO): Re catcher vs shortstop question... How can tommy Joseph and Christian bethancourt be left off that top catcher list?!?
Mark Anderson: You can certainly put them on the list if you want to, Kai. That doesn't mean they are the same caliber of prospect that guys like d'Arnaud, Zunino, etc., are. In fact, part of the reason I opted for the shortstop list was because I don't believe two of the guys on the list provided to me -- Brantly and Trahan -- are of the same caliber as the others.
Flynn (Rehabbing): I see a lot of varied opinions on Juan Nicasio. A lot of people are high on him, others are not as high. What are your thoughts?
Mark Anderson: The raw stuff certainly intrigues me, Flynn. Ultimately, I don't think he's fine enough in the strike zone for sustained success, but improvements in that area can come with big league game experience. Once he's on the mound for an extended stretch of time, we will have a better idea of what steps he is capable of taking at this stage.
Marcus (Joliet): What do you make of Matt Adams. Seems a bit buried in St. Louis. Could be a an average or above 1B productivity wise were he given a starting gig in the majors?
Mark Anderson: Dude sure can hit. He struggled a bit in the big leagues and that may have hampered his ability to get another true shot in 2013. He deserves a chance to win a job in the big leagues because I think the bat will ultimately play at the level.
MJ (e-town): Thoughts on Wellington Castillo? Can he take the Cub's starting catcher job and run with it? What kind of season stats could you see him put up?
Mark Anderson: I think he'll be the starter for the bulk of 2013 but I'm not sure he will run away with it and lock it up long term. He's a good player, particularly for a rebuilding club, but I'm not sold on him being the long term solution on an everyday basis.
Mark (Miami): What can we expect from Jacob Turner this year in Miami? Is a sub-4.00 ERA too much to ask?
Mark Anderson: I don't think that's unreasonable. I do think he will have bouts where he struggles until he learns to setup his curveball and change-up a little more, thus allowing him to miss more bats, but even without that development, he's ready to be a quality big league pitcher.
Big Ted (Chicago): I heart Randall Delgado. Tell me why I shouldn't.
Mark Anderson: I'm okay with you "hearting" him, Big Ted. Delgado is a very talented pitcher. Just don't let your imagination run too wild. He's going to be a very nice mid-rotation starter, but I don't see much more than that.
sykklone (Iowa): In what order do you have Soler, Puig, and Dahl?
Mark Anderson: I haven't done my own overall rankings yet, but I'm inclined to say Dahl will be just ahead of Soler, followed by Puig.
Mike (Milwaukee): I noticed James Nelson wasn't in the Brewers top 10. Are you sold on him as a starter? What is his ceiling?
Mark Anderson: I do think he will be a starter, but there were certainly some dissenting opinions during both our internal discussions on the Brewers list as well as discussions I had with industry folks. As a starter, I think he can be a good number four. As a reliever, he could pitch in high leverage situations.
flyingdutchman (Oakland, CA): It seems to me that walks for pitchers with tremendous physical tools, such as Rondon's, are sort of like strikeouts for otherwise talented hitting prospects, such as Travis Snider, in that evaluators are too quick to overlook them. I bring this up because I think Rondon is going to come out plunking guys and walking the park. Your thoughts?
Mark Anderson: I didn't see that at all when I scouted him in 2012. He had bouts of wildness but also showed the ability to correct that problem between hitters. Generally speaking, he was able to get his fastball in the zone and hitters -- even really good hitters -- regularly chased his stuff out of the zone.
Earnest (NJ): Any chance the 2nd half of last season was a sign of things to come for Josh Donaldson?
Mark Anderson: I think the .290/.356/.489 line he posted in the second half might be a little lofty, but I think he will be a very good player for the A's in 2013.
Kai (SLO): In what order would you rank the future fantasy prospects/production of: Aaron Hicks, Jackie Bradley, and Rymer Liriano?
Mark Anderson: Liriano has the most raw offensive potential of the trio, but I'd put my money on Hicks ultimately providing the most fantasy value.
Michael (Bedford): Has Gerrit Cole been pitching up to his "stuff." I recall reading/hearing a lot last season about how while everyone is in agreement that he can be a monster, he hadn't been attacking hitters w/ his best.
Mark Anderson: That's always been a question with Cole. He has absurd raw stuff but the results don't always match. That said, I'm not sure we could have expected much more as he pitched across three levels in 2012. He was dominating nearly all of the time. When I saw him live last year, I could quibble that I would have liked to have seen him attack with his fastball further down in the order, or that he could have played his change-up off his fastball a bit better, but for all I know, they were asking him to work on things in those instances. Everything I saw was fantastic and I have huge expectations for him.
Kai (SLO): Does Dorssys Paulino have a future as above average major league ss? Probably not in Cleveland though with lindor ahead of him, am I right?
Mark Anderson: I don't see him as a shortstop, even if Lindor wasn't in Cleveland. I think he can be a really good second baseman though.
mikemcd (ottawa): I know it's a short list but no Archie Bradley in the top ten? I had the impression from the superlatives heaped on him numerous times by BP that he was right there. Top twenty then?
Mark Anderson: He needs to make some pretty big developmental steps to reach his ceiling. If I were offering a list of pitchers with the highest ceilings, he'd be right there. Personally, he'll be right around that 20 mark, possibly just outside.
Larry (Kansas City): What "consensus" (top) prospects do you find yourself having doubts about? Or flip it, what guys do you love that most prospect prognosticators have doubts about?
Mark Anderson: I've always harbored some doubts about the star potential of George Springer. I see the tools; I've seen them since college, but he's still very raw in the application of those tools. I think he'll be a big leaguer and probably a solid one, but I don't see the potential star that some see.
On the other side of things, I remain infatuated with Tyrell Jenkins. He's been among my top few Cardinals prospects for the last couple of years, despite many others seemingly holding off on him a bit. I love his potential and think he could develop into a beast.
bmmolter (Mass.): What do you see from Wil Myers both this year and in the future in terms of slash and HR?
Mark Anderson: He will have an adjustment period at the big league level and may not show his true talent right out of the gate. Once he settles in, I think you might see him in the .280/.370/.530 range with 25 bombs, but I'm far from an expert at predicting stats.
Ervin (San Francisco): Who do you have winning the Oakland 1B job: Chris Carter or Brandon Moss? If Carter wins it outright, can he hit 30-35 HR?
Mark Anderson: I would like to believe Carter can finally break out and win the job. His power is tremendous, and he certainly has 30-homer potential, even with a low average and swing and miss issues. That said, he's going to have to flat out beat Moss in spring training, something I'm not willing to predict at this point.
BJ (Boston): Thanks for answering my other questions, Mark. If you don't mind, I'd love your opinion on another batch of pitching prospects - the next step down from the group I gave you earlier. If you had to order Brandon Maurer, Clayton Blackburn, Roberto Osuna, Henry Owens, Lance McCullers, how would you do that? Thanks again!
Mark Anderson: That's a pretty diverse group, BJ. My gut instinct would be to go Blackburn, Osuna, McCullers, Owens, Maurer, but I reserve the right to change that in the future!
Brian (Mass.): Of the following, who would you project as reaching nos. 1/2/3/4 SP status? Teheran, Guerreri, jose fernandez, t. walker, tyrell jenkins, rosenthal
Mark Anderson: Fernandez and Walker are the only two I see in that list with number one potential. Guerrieri and Jenkins could both be number twos for me. Teheran and Rosenthal are probably number threes and could be lights out relievers if their clubs decide to go/stay with that direction.
James (Arizona): What are your thoughts on Matt Davidson? Is he close to being a ML 3B?
Mark Anderson: I think he's getting there, both offensively and defensively. His improvements at the hot corner have been impressive and I think he can stick there for the first half of his career. At the plate, his approach is evolving and I think he needs another year in the minor leagues to polish it and complete his development.
sandiego3131 (Honolulu): Hey Mark. The Padres system seems like its very deep, but lacking on the top end. Their Major League roster is already flooded with average-ish young controllable players (outside of Quentin and Headley), and I don't see where all these guys coming up the system are gonna play. Wouldnt it make sense to overpay and change some of that quantity to quality? You get no medals for the best AAA roster....
Mark Anderson: You're right about no medals for the best Triple-A roster, but that depth has a way of working itself out. if you end up with a glut of quality prospects beating down the door to the big leagues, the you can start looking to flip some of them to upgrade the big league roster, otherwise, you might as well hold on to many of them.
Kai (SLO): Mark, thanks for answering so many of my questions. Your insight is valued greatly.... Do you think Trevor Rosenthal finds a home in the STL rotation? Are they ready to let lohse go and insert rosenthal or does Shelby miller have the inside track there?
Mark Anderson: My pleasure, Kai. Thanks for coming out and asking so many questions!
I think Rosenthal could succeed in the Cardinals rotation but I'm not sure they are prepared to go that route. His dominance in the bullpen was ridiculous and extremely appealing. With other options like Shelby Miller -- who ultimately has a higher upside than Rosenthal -- they may be inclined to push Miller into that spot instead of Rosenthal. Honestly, I'd have a hard time faulting them for that.
rookie319s (saint louis): Thanks for the chat. Who has a better career Dahl or Yelich?
Mark Anderson: I like Dahl's potential more. Yelich is going to be very good, but I see some star potential in Dahl.
Chuck (Tampa): Do you see Miguel Sano being able to play 3B at all, or is that a far-fetched scenario?
Mark Anderson: I could see it happening in a Miguel Cabrera sort of way, but I'm not sure the Twins will be inclined to go that route. He's held up longer at the position than many scouts have suspected he would, but I'm not ready to project him at the hot corner long term.
Earl (The Present): Does Rosario stick at 2nd? Chances he routinely hits 20+ HR as a regular MLBer?
Mark Anderson: I struggle to see the second base profile. He doesn't show any real feel for the position and his development was lacking in 2012. I think he ends up in the outfield long term. I also don't see him hitting 20 home runs in the big leagues, more like 25+ doubles and 12-15 home runs.
stewbies (Rochester, NY): Will Juan Francisco get the chance to hold down the 3b job in Atlanta, at least against righties, and will he hold onto it?
Mark Anderson: I think he should get the chance, seeing as the Braves really don't have anyone to jump up and take the spot unless you're a real believer in Joe Terdoslavich. Whether he holds onto it or not is an open question that hinges on his ability to control the strike zone and make more consistent contact.
TheGoat0211 (Phoenix): Didn't see Javier Baez in your next set of position prospects. Is he in the next tier?
Mark Anderson: He's probably just outside of that list I posted before. I like Baez a lot, but there's a lot of risk associated with his game.
sykklone (Iowa): In what order do you have Syndergaard, Stephenson, and Blackburn?
Mark Anderson: I'll take the order you have them in.
jlarsen (Chicago ): Are there any prospects, off the top of your head, who would benefit greatly from a "change of scenery"?
Mark Anderson: I think one player that already received that was Andy Oliver, who went from the Tigers to the Pirates. He still has a big fastball from the left side and it just wasn't working with the Detroit developmental staff.
Though it's unlikely to happen because of the state of the organization, I think Josh Vitters could be helped by a trip to another organization. I still haven't given up on him being a solid big leaguer.
Nick (San Diego): What do you think about Logan Forsythe? I feel he can be a deep sleeper for fantasy owners next year. What kind of line can I expect from him?
Mark Anderson: He's an interesting player. I guess it depends on the type of league stats you're using. His biggest value is tied to his ability to control the strike zone and work counts. He can hit for a solid average but doesn't have much pop behind it. He's of limited value to me from a fantasy perspective.
DetroitDale (Florida (eternal spring training)): Michael Bourn is still out there, should Detroit sign him for the last OF hole? The only downside is they lose yet another draft pick. How much of a difference would that make their farm system ratings?
Mark Anderson: I'm not sure I'd advocate the move, but I can see it happening, particularly if Boras wanted a one-year deal so he could hit the market with Bourn again next year. It makes a bit of sense and would make for a really, really good top of the order with Jackson and an outstanding defensive outfield with Jackson and Hunter. The Tigers have the 38th pick in the draft thanks to their trade with the Marlins. I'm not sure losing the 21st pick would be the end of the world for them.
BJ (Boston): Apologies, which list is TheGoat0211 referring to?
Mark Anderson: I rattled off my next group of position player prospects after the likes of Profar, Taveras and Myers. That list included Buxton, Lindor, d'Arnaud and Bogaerts...with Baez just outside of that tier.
Brian (Mass.): What are your thoughts on Arenado and Olt? One seems to have taken a step up and the other a step back in the last 12 months based on what I hear. How do you project them in the majors? Do you believe Arenado will develop enough power for 20 HR or is he a 10-15 guy even in Coors? And can Olt keep the swing and miss from torpedoing his power potential?
Mark Anderson: At this point, I'm not sure if Arenado will get to 20-homers a year. His swing plane just isn't conducive to that kind of over-the-fence power. I do still think he can hit for average and rack up a ton of doubles. As for Olt, the swing and miss is a concern, but he's not devoid of feel for the barrel and I think he'll adjust after some time.
flyingdutchman (Oakland, CA): This is what I'm talking about. Maybe Singleton can hit .280, like when his BABIP spikes and he's 28, but looking at his profile it's hard to see him hitting more than about .250 or.260, year to year. Jim Thome and Ryan Howard both hit over .300 in the minors. Don't you think Singleton would have to make some sort of change before we can forecast him for anything like .280 with 25 homers?
Mark Anderson: Part of projecting a prospect to the major league level is the attempt at projecting what steps/adjustments they are capable of making as they develop. I think Singleton has the feel for hitting and the overall approach to ultimately hit .280 consistently at the big league level. If he hits at that level, the power will absolutely play in the 25-home range.
Mark Anderson: Well folks, it's been about 2.5 hours of prospect goodness and I've got to get some stuff done around the house. Thanks so much to all of you for coming out and making my first BP chat a resounding success! I can't wait to do this again, and in the meantime, I'm always answering questions on Twitter (@ProspectMark). Take it easy everybody!
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