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Chat: Brendan Gawlowski

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Monday March 14, 2016 2:30 PM ET chat session with Brendan Gawlowski.


Brendan Gawlowski: I am here and ready to talk about anything baseball, prospects, Mariners, Arsenal, whatever. I'll take fantasy questions although I concede that those aren't my bread and butter. The queue isn't too heavy so I'll go until I run out or the in-flight wifi goes kerplooie.

Arnold (Wisonsin): Who will have the better 2016? The better career? Conforto or Schwarber?

Brendan Gawlowski: I'm a big believer in Schwarber's bat so I'll take him by a nose.

Cal Guy (Cal): Hi Brendan, Should my last keeper league spot go to Stroman or Gausman? Thanks!

Brendan Gawlowski: Stroman. I think Gausman puts it together some day but Stroman is ready to go now.

Chris (Baltimore): It seems like Hunter Strickland is impossible to draft in leagues on the cheap. Pay more or just accept the secret is out?

Brendan Gawlowski: Are we talking about the same Hunter Strickland?

George G. (Allentown): Any prospects you like more than the other guys?

Brendan Gawlowski: I think Tyler White hits enough to at least play against lefties. Artie Reyes flashed three solid average pitches and a dandy of a curve for me in Tacoma last year. I'd bet on Trayce Thompson's athleticism, although I'm not sure he gets on the field much in LA.

Dhdbd (Seattle): What's Ketel Marte's ultimate ceiling?

Brendan Gawlowski: First division regular, but I'll take the under.

Chris (DC): Have you heard any reports on how Archie Bradley's stuff looks in spring training? Do you think he still has top of the rotation potential? The injuries are a concern but he's still only 23. Thanks!

Brendan Gawlowski: Nothing out of the ordinary yet. Hoping I can put eyes on him when I'm in Arizona next week.

Jesse (NY): Can we agree to not answer any Oetani / Espinoza questions?

Brendan Gawlowski: If you can agree not to ask him.

Side note: every time I see 'Espinoza' I assume you mean Alvaro Espinoza, who was just the worst utility man.

DJ (Dallas): Thanks for the chat, Brendan!! What's the chance that Martin Perez has a breakout year this year?? Also, will Jurickson Profar get a chance to play somewhere other than middle infield?? Thanks for sharing your opinion.

Brendan Gawlowski: My pleasure. Staying low on Perez until he shows he can command the ball well for an extended stretch. For Profar, the natural spot was LF but Ian Desmond pretty well takes care of that. If he's healthy, he'll hit his way into an opportunity somewhere; just maybe not in Texas.

Chris (Baltimore): It's an NL only 12 teamer 5 x 5. J Baez for 8 in 2016 then 13 in 2017 or Inciarte for 12 in 2016 then 17 in 2017? Got to go w/ Baez, right? Must throw the other back...

Brendan Gawlowski: I'd lean Inciarte just because I don't know how much Baez will play this year.

Jake (CA): Do you see Tyler O'Neill gaining any helium this year and moving up the prospect ranks?

Brendan Gawlowski: If I could take a deep stab, I would guess that O'Neill takes a big (consensus) step forward in 2017. I think he'll take his lumps in Double-A for the first couple of months, but the power is real and he has the drive to adapt and improve.

portocac (Chicago): Arismendy Alcantara: still a potential impact player after last year's horrendous season? If so, what does he need to work on (besides not striking out so much)?

Brendan Gawlowski: I don't see it. More of a reserve type for me.

Joe Porter (Portland): I'm heading to Phoenix from Saturday to Tuesday. What match ups would be the best use of my time? Already planning on Mariners/Indians.

Brendan Gawlowski: Depends what you're interested in. There are enough night games to hit up two big league games per day and see just about everybody. Personally, I could spend all week at the Brewers camp in Maryvale.

jpaternostro (S6): Can you talk a bit about the worst Arsenal performance of the 2015-16 season?

Brendan Gawlowski: You want me to say the Sheffield game so I'll say Swansea. I was drinking.

Theo Epstein (Wrigley): 12-team, 5x5 rotiere, dynasty format... Really struggling with what to do with Addison Russell. I have a couple offers out there with him involved, one for Sonny Gray, another for Benintendi and A. Espinoza. Really, my question is: What do you project of him in the future? I see a lot of potential, but also a young, unproven guy that might be stuck at the bottom of the lineup for a few years... Please help

Brendan Gawlowski: He's a better real life player than fantasy asset, which makes him a decent trade chip. If you have cover at short and need pitching for a title run, Sonny Gray's don't grow on trees.

Georgie (St Louis): So Cards definitely need an upgrade at SS now. I saw the Ahmed talks and definitely like him. One guy, though, who has always intrigued me is Ruben Tejada. He seems like one of those guys who would just be much better on the Cardinals. What would it take to get him? Is it possible the Mets could trade Tejada and a prospect for a better prospect from the Cards? Thanks!

Brendan Gawlowski: If only Desmond had stayed on the market for another couple of weeks. As for Tejada, I don't think I'd want to court a guy coming off of a broken leg to be my insurance policy.

oldbopper (New Britain, CT): Desmond has some power but his OBP was .290 last year. That does not play in LF for a contender. What does baseball see that doesn't seem to be there. The Rangers should give the position to Profar to lose.

Brendan Gawlowski: He's a weird fit, but if you're betting on a guy getting 500 plus PA's with a 105 or better wRC+ I'd take Desmond.

Larry Walker's son (Montreal): Is Arron Nola a ace on any other team then the Phillys?

Brendan Gawlowski: Sure, a small handful of teams. Rockies come to mind immediately, but there's a case for Angels, Twins, Orioles, maybe a couple others.

Sorry for the delays, the wifi up in the clouds isn't particularly strong.

oldbopper (New Britain, CT): That stinker the Gunners threw up against Watford this past weekend was no bargain either.

Brendan Gawlowski: Meh. If Gibbs hits a header, Iwobi hits the inside of the post, or Arsenal tracks back better on their second goal, nobody would be talking about it. Just needed better end product.

Grey (Albany): What kind of player do you see matz and severino being in 2016? And down the road? Who do you prefer?

Brendan Gawlowski: Concerned about Matz's ability to stay on the mound; he's never thrown more than 140 innings in a season. I like Severino quite a bit: as long as the velo holds, he's a good No. 3 or low No. 2 for me.

Rick (New York): I currently have Tim Anderson, should I draft Bregman or Swanson if I have the chance? I'd rather go another position.

Brendan Gawlowski: Given the odds that Anderson shifts off of short at some point, Dansby would be appealing for me.

brad14 (NJ): It seems like some love has been lost for Kyle Tucker. Top 6 pick with middle of the order bat still? or has something changed?

Brendan Gawlowski: I'm not too concerned; it's just a couple hundred AB's for an 18-year-old in short season ball. He wasn't totally overwhelmed by the caliber of pitching he saw, so all systems are go for now.

oldbopper (New Britain, CT): The Phillies are projected to win about 66 games this year. Does this number look as far above reality to you as it does me?

Brendan Gawlowski: I'm not flying to Vegas to take the under.

Ron (Texarkana): If you could redo the 2015 MLB Draft, would your Top 5 choices (Dansby,Bregman, Rodgers, Tate, Tucker) be different in the 9 months that have passed?

Brendan Gawlowski: Take it with a grain of salt since I haven't seen all of them live, but Rodgers was the guy I liked most back then. Haven't had a need to change my mind.

oldbopper (New Britain, CT): Can you really think Sano can play RF at a reasonable level?

Brendan Gawlowski: He's not plus out there, but his bat should carry the glove just fine.

oldbopper (New Britain, CT): Who will hit more HR's in their career, Betts or Bogaerts?

Brendan Gawlowski: Hmmm. I'll take Betts.

Chris (Baltimore): Brito, Broxton? Any other late to the party NL only batters to target in a 12 team league?

Brendan Gawlowski: Purely looking for a bat? Tyler White

Cameroon (Aftica): Mets trade Harvey in the offseason? Who will be interested/have the talent to get a deal done? What would a potential trade look like?

Brendan Gawlowski: Man, I really hope you're in Cameroon. If I'm New York, I'm trying to win now, not deal my ace.

Paulie (Miami, FL): Keep 3 - Jackie Bradley Jr, Trayce Thompson, Aaron Hicks, Domingo Santana, Brett Phillips

Brendan Gawlowski: Bradley, Philiips, and what the hell, Hicks. I don't love Santana and I don't see a clear path to playing time for Trayce.

DDriesen (NYC): Follow up on your Rangers question - what do you think Desmond's arrival does to the start date of Nomar Mazara? Really want to keep him in my 5x5, but not sure if it is worth it for just 2016-17 if he is out most of this year. Thoughts?

Brendan Gawlowski: Not sure if the bat is quite ready for prime time yet, but it's not hard to imagine him being a very good player as soon as 2017.

Negan (Washington DC): Dillion Tate, Jeff Hoffman, Sean Newcomb, Jake Thompson. Who's an SP1 in 3-4 years?

Brendan Gawlowski: Probably none of them. Thompson the safest choice.

Gabe (Detroit): What is the top 5 in a redo of 2014 draft? In order preferrably

Brendan Gawlowski: Rodon, Schwarber, Nola, Conforto, Turner. There's a good case for Brad Zimmer in there too.

Big jumps for Reed and Honeywell.

P.G. (Houston): Who's the next Altuve?

Brendan Gawlowski: Like with Jamie Moyer, you can't really make a Jose Altuve comp.

CharJaco (Oak): What do you see L. Martin ceiling and floor being this year in Seattle?

Brendan Gawlowski: Celing: Gold Glove caliber defender in center and enough bat to play 130 games.
Floor: Above average defense, unplayable against lefties.

Leonard (None of Your Business): Mr. Gawlowski. Got some names that are so so far away from the show might be pointless to ask about them. Jose Pujols, Miguel Flames, & Julio Martinez. Was it stupid to even ask about these guys?

Brendan Gawlowski: Not stupid at all! I haven't seen any of those personally - I'm in the PNW, which isn't conducive to seeing a ton of guys each here - although people I trust speak well of Jose Pujols. Tucker Blair threw a 50/55 on his hit/power, and I don't make a habit of dismissing what he has to say.

oldbopper (New Britain, CT): I have always seen Jose Altuve as a mini Dustin Pedroia, if that is possible.

Brendan Gawlowski: Fun question: who embellishes more when they list their height?

Skills wise, they're pretty different players. Excellent second basemen, but they ply their crafts very differently.

Gary (Oregon): What do you think of Dom smith? How do you project him?

Brendan Gawlowski: Want to see him hit in a fair ballpark, but unless his feel for the barrel is special, I have a hard time seeing him as a first division regular.

Grayson (Tallahassee): Over his career, how many seasons will syndergaard be a top 5 pitcher in the MLB?

Brendan Gawlowski: I'll say twice.

Chris (Baltimore): How early (pick overall) is too early for Posey in a 15 team (2 catcher) league 5 x5?

Brendan Gawlowski: Personally, I never liked drafting catchers early. Second round isn't out of the question though.

CharJaco (Oak): Urias/Glasnow/Snell please rank. Who is up first? Thanks

Brendan Gawlowski: I like your order; Urias and Glasnow should debut this season, so who comes first is more about circumstance than proximity.

Pitbull (Hotel Room): Im a business guy, but highly interested in the Propsect Team app process- what "absolutes" should be included on the resume?

Brendan Gawlowski: Evaluating ability, familiarity with the 20-80 scale and scouting terminology, and availability to go to fields regularly are huge.

oldbopper (New Britain, CT): The Red Sox turned Big Papi into a full time DH at age 26. No other team has taken this course. Sano or Schwarber, in the AL of course, seem to actually lose value if they are put on the field. Does it seem reasonable to make this move?

Brendan Gawlowski: I could see both ending up there eventually.

Brian (Wis): Some are predicting a break out of sorts for gausman. how do you feel about him? 3.5 ERA, 1.30 WhIP, 8 K/9 doable?

Brendan Gawlowski: He's certainly got the stuff to do better than that. Given Baltimore's development history with pitchers, it's hard to be optimistic though.

CharJaco (Oak): Do you have a draft strategy for H2H points leagues?

Brendan Gawlowski: Only played roto and H2H. Sorry.

oldbopper (New Britain, CT): Please expound on the differences between Pedroia and Altuve. Great defense, steal bases, and hit with much more power than one would think. I see many similarities.

Brendan Gawlowski: Pedroia sees a lot more pitches, takes more walks, swings harder, has more raw power, and at his peak was a better defender. Altuve can square anything up, is faster, and runs more often.

Calvin (Pitt): Jacob DeGrom or Gerrit Cole?

Brendan Gawlowski: Can't go wrong, but I'll take Cole.

The icat (Seattle): Settle this debate: if humanity ever discovered a living dinosaur in which state would it be found: Indiana or the other 49?

Brendan Gawlowski: The smart money is on Indiana.

CharJaco (Oak): Who wins in Seattle? Paxton or Karns? Also, who gets the lion share of saves? Thanks

Brendan Gawlowski: As long as they're healthy, both will get plenty of chances; whoever throws better over the next few weeks (this is NOT the same as who has more strikeouts/lower ERA) probably gets the nod. I'll guess Karns.

And Cishek. Everything coming out of the org suggests he'll have every chance to hold the job.

Big Cat (Chicago): Big G - Who do you see having a chance at being the next Trout/Harper out the current top 100 prospects. Heck I'll draft Vlad Guerrero Jr if i have too.

Brendan Gawlowski: I'll phrase it differently, since I don't feel comfortable projecting anyone to be Harper or Trout-level good. But given how many HOF'ers are in the league at any one time (I think I've read an essay that suggested the number is around 20-30, roughly), there almost have to be a couple of future HOF'ers on the top 100. Who is most likely to make it? I'll take Buxton.

Ben (NYC): How much longer can Mertesacker hang on for the Gunners?

Brendan Gawlowski: Another two or three years in some capacity? I actually think his positioning and anticipation are criminally underrated by announcers who grab the low hanging "he's slow" fruit.

Jason (Washington DC): Could you see the Yankees resigning Teixera after this season to a one year deal. This could make an Arod, Bird, Teix triplet to handle DH and 1B next year when Bird returns.

Brendan Gawlowski: I don't think that makes a ton of sense for them.

Viktor (MD): What do you think of Amir Garrett?

Brendan Gawlowski: I like him, and he's another guy I want to put eyes on next week. I like athletes, I like players who succeed despite coming to baseball late (particularly pitchers, since he should have a relatively fresh arm), and I'm excited that he's in an organization that has such a good history of churning out productive big leaguers.

Brian (Wis): Would you prefer Anthony Alford or Francis Martes on a dynasty team. who has more upside and is either a better bet than the other to reach it?

Brendan Gawlowski: Given my last anser, you probably won't be shocked that I love Anthony Alford. I'd bet on the OF.

David (Atlantis): Do you have any Low Minor prospects you are high on that aren't really known but you think that by this time next year may have some buzz?

Brendan Gawlowski: From the NWL, Jake Brentz, Luis Liberato, Enyel De Los Santos, Mac Marshall, Yeyson Yrizarri. If I had to take a deeeep dive, Zack Nehrir, Lane Thomas, and Carlos Hernandez. Eloy Jimenez and Justin Steele probably don't count because Cubs, but I liked them too. Colin Young wants me to say Brett Kennedy.

Mike (New Jersey): Who should I take in the 1st round? Nick Williams, Lewis Brinson, Andrew Benintendi, Victor Robles. Who should I take in the 1st round? (Feel like Williams has a higher ceiling than Brinson)

Brendan Gawlowski: I'd take Williams.

Bill (New Mexico): Which "Artie Reyes" was it that you mentioned being impressed by at Tacoma, in your response to an earlier question? Reyes is a common baseball name. Did you mean Reyes The Lesser in the Cardinals system (Alex = Greater, Arturo = Lesser), or is there another Artie out there (at Tacoma or elsewhere) that I don't know about?

Brendan Gawlowski: Arturo; I wasn't aware that people called Alex Reyes 'Artie.'

Brian (Wis.): Do you have some youngish players in mind you see taking a step forward this year due to playing time increases, a more stable role, etc?

Brendan Gawlowski: I probably shouldn't take this as my opportunity to say that I'm the last guy in the world who still thinks Nick Franklin can play, but too late.

CharJaco (Oak): Who are your top five SP prospects? Who would you go all in on?

Brendan Gawlowski: Giolito, Urias, Berrios, Reyes, Matz, when's healthy. Tempted to sneak De Leon in there.

Peyman (AZ): Who's a good comp for Michael Conforto?

Brendan Gawlowski: I'm not a big fan of (read: not good at) making comps. It's tough to find a player who achieves approximate value using the same skills in a similar way. No one's jumping off the page at me for Conforto. Sorry for punting.

Joe (Chi Town): Will Jorge Soler be traded? Or will he be stuck in outfield purgatory for all of eternity?

Brendan Gawlowski: I love the idea of the Cubs wielding depth. Not only is it great injury insurance, but I think we're going to see Maddon give each guy plenty of days off as a way to keep them fresh. Remember how they skipped BP a lot just to keep people off their feet? I think that's only the start of a new way of treating and managing fatigue, both in Chicago and around the league.

Having said all that, he's probably already packing his bags.

Steve (Kentucky): Is this the year Wil Myers 'breakout' comes? I've been patiently waiting!

Brendan Gawlowski: I wouldn't expect a breakout so much as hope for health and a return to 2013 form.

Tony (Boston): Do you see Joc Pederson turning it around? Or is the best we can hope for something in between his two halves.

Brendan Gawlowski: I've heard he re-worked his swing a little bit in an effort to make more contact, but realistically, the overall product is probably somewhere between the two extremes. Still has some value even when he's in a rut though.

Jimmy (TX): Who would you guess gets the most PAs among the Brewers OF: Braun, then in descending order - Santana, Broxton, Reed, R Liriano, Neiwenheiss, Phillips, Player X?

Brendan Gawlowski: Man that's a soggy list. Not that there aren't good players, but so many developmental variables to consider. I would put Santana first, and push Phillips and Kirk towards the back of the list.

jdawdy0 (San Francisco): Your take on Kaprielian?

Brendan Gawlowski: Following, but in the end, you're kind of praying that either the velocity or the command tick up if you want more than a backend guy. Not the safest bet out there.

Andy (CT): Is it or me or did Garrett Richards seem very 'unlucky' last year?

Brendan Gawlowski: I'll confess to only watching him once or twice last year. I like him as a good No. 3.

Sal (PA): Who has a better career when it's all said and done Eduardo Rodriguez or Lance McCullers?

Brendan Gawlowski: Like both, will go with Eduardo.

Brendan Gawlowski: Plane descending towards Houston so I have to wrap it up. Thanks so much for stopping by this afternoon, I had a lot of fun, and barely noticed how cramped this plane is.

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