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Talk fantasy in Mauricio's BP chat debut.
Mauricio Rubio: Many years later, as he faced the firing squad, Colonel Aureliano Buendía was to remember that distant afternoon when his father took him to discover Bryce (Harper).
Womp womp, let’s get this started.
proffitt9 (Tampa): My Yordano Ventura and Koji Ueharra for his Kris Bryant? Thoughts?
Mauricio Rubio: Assuming this is Dynasty, I like the Kris Bryant side of this trade over 5 years, but in the short term Yordano and Koji's side will bring in more value. Ventura is a ROY candidate and Koji is an elite closer. Both of those guys will provide a lot of value over the next two years. Bryant still has to make it to the show and he likely won't produce at a top tier level right away. I think this starts to pay off by year 3 but you will be coming up short for the first two years in my opinion.
That said, I like the trade overall.
Marcus Stroam (Toronto): Would you put your Dick on the Table and say that I will be a starter for the next 5+ years?
Mauricio Rubio: I'm willing to go there with you. I have a shorty bias but I've learned via conversations with scouts, talent eval guys and smart baseball people that this is a case specific instance where size really doesn't matter.
StrayMWBL (Detroit): Will Lucas Giolito reach Washington sometime in 2015 ?
Mauricio Rubio: I think that's too aggressive. 2017 is what Parks threw on him way back in 2013, I can see that maybe moving up a year but 2015 is hard to see, I think.
Evan (California): First off, great job on the TINO episodes so far. Awesome podcast.
My question is how highly do you value Manny Machado in dynasty leagues? What he did last year was extremely impressive given how young he was. Do you think he could be a top ten asset and the #1 3B down the line? I'd like to think he can improve on those HR by quite a bit in a couple years.
Mauricio Rubio: Once in my dreams Manny Machado gently woke me from an uneasy sleep and cradled me in his arms while cooing me soft pleasantries which generally stated that life will be ok and my hopes will be fulfilled. I think he's going to be fantastic.
Time will be coming soon where he almost has to be the #1 3B. Miggy is going away, mainstays like Zimmerman and Wright will enter decline/secondary phases of their careers. Evan Longoria will challenge Machado but it will be a fun conversation to have.
Trevor Bauer (Binghamton, NY): How do you feel about me?
Mauricio Rubio: I'm torn. I want to see you succeed but your seeming stubbornness is concerning to me. Years from now we might have a different opinion of this episode in your life but I'm worried.
Bubbles (Sunnyvale): First draft of the season tonight. Auction, 12 teams 40 man roster(ottoneu). Beer, liqour, or cocaine?
Mauricio Rubio: Cocaine. Definitely cocaine.
yancyeaton (Fort Myers): 20-team, 3-Keeper H2H League: Is it worth it to burn one of my keeper slots to stash Matt Harvey away until 2015?
I must keep 1 pitcher by rule, and the only other decent arm I have is Teheran.
Mauricio Rubio: If it's down to Teheran or Harvey I would keep Teheran. I don't think he's going to be better than Matt Harvey down the line but he'll be pitching in 2014 while Harvey is healing and rehabbing. With only three keepers you want someone who will provide positive value for your team asap and Teheran will do that.
Andrew (Canada): I can keep one of the following three first basemen (10 team h2h 5x5). Where is the value? Matt Adams at the cost of a 12th round pick? Freddie Freeman at the cost of 7th? Mike Napoli at the cost of a 12th?
Mauricio Rubio: Freeman at the cost of a 7th rounder is very good value in my mind. I would go there.
Steve (New Jersey): How bullish are you on Jose Abreu's fantasy prospects this year? Where do you see him rank in the list of AL 1B?
Mauricio Rubio: I'm cautiously pessimistic on Abreu. Power is real but Cuban stats are wonky as hell and I want to see him in real life before I take any gambles on him. I wouldn't take him before tier 3 guys, too much value at 1B to get that wrong.
Trevor Rosenthal (Missouri): Any chance I could be the #1 closer in fantasy baseball this season?
Mauricio Rubio: Outside chance that could happen if Kimbrel comes back to earth. That's not a sleight on you though, you're a nasty mofo
MerleDixon (Snowy PA): I have received inquiries on King Felix, what type of compensation should I be looking for in return. Picks have been offered, Puig straight up in return for example. Would you take Puig? This is a dynasty team nearing competitiveness. Can draft Tanaka, as I have 4 of the 1st 13 picks in the draft, including #1 overall.
Mauricio Rubio: Depends on what you need. I think Felix is a top ten guy in all formats so I would be looking for equivalent value in a stat category in need.
chopper (indy): Did we see the real Martin Prado in the 2nd half or the 1st half of 2013?
Mauricio Rubio: I think we saw the real Martin Prado throughout the entirety of the 2013 season. Prado had an insane second half last year that made up for his struggles over the first half. Over his career his splits aren't as extreme as they were in 2013, so I would suggest that the reliable Prado will post his usual steady diet of numbers in 2014.
Rick (NY): Do you see any value in dynasty for Jesus Montero, or is he a cut-loose guy?
Mauricio Rubio: I want to believe but I just can't get there with him anymore. I think he's toast
Chesty (New Bern,NC): 12 team H2H with R, HR,AVE,RBI,SB,XBH. Thinking of Chris Davis with the 6th pick.
Mauricio Rubio: Might be too early and I think you'll have to live with it if he doesn't come back around for you on the snake. I mean, it's not ridiculous to snag him there but I wouldn't.
Jason (Miami): Does Eric Hosmer build from his 2h last year and parlay it into a real fantasy breakout in '14? Thoughts on HR/Avg.?
Mauricio Rubio: I'm a firm believer in Hosmer for next year. I think .290 and 20-25 is well within range.
DigBaseball (Sunnyvale): Regarding Michael Morse, which is more likely:
1) Morse leads Giants in home runs in 2014
2) Morse is released during the season and never plays in MLB after 2014
Mauricio Rubio: Both of those things are as likely. I think he has a meh season and is just fantasy filler from here on in.
rickwilkins (chi): How worried are you about Giancarlo Stanton's long term health?
Mauricio Rubio: I'm fairly concerned. Stanton has a big and athletic frame, leg issues are a pretty big red flag when it comes to players with his statistical and scouting profile. Those tend to linger around for a while. I still gamble on him this year but in the back of my mind I wonder if he's going to break down again this year.
Joe Maddon (Your heart): Why do you hate St. Pete?
Mauricio Rubio: It's a dead husk that lacks imagination. Love Chris King though
Chris (Phoenix): Under what senario is Chris Carter useless if he hits 30 HR's?
Mauricio Rubio: If he somehow manages to hit .-210 with a Mark Bellhornesque 70 RBIs
Matt (Springfield): Any lingering concerns over Joe Mauer's season-ending concussion? I have him in a keeper OBP league but I'm wondering if at his price (probably high 20s/low 30s depending who else I keep) it's better to cut bait than risk it.
Mauricio Rubio: Somewhat, but at the high 20's I'm willing to gamble that he'll be ok.
Guest (my cubicle): How would you rank Odor, Alcantara and Betts for Dynasty Leagues?
Mauricio Rubio: Alcantara - Odor ---- Mookie. I think it's very close between Arismendy and Odor.
Rick Porcello (DET): Am I criminally underrated?
Mauricio Rubio: Criminally? No, but I think you're a damn fine pitcher.
Rob #'s (NYC): who gets to 90 wins first...Twins, Cubs or Astros, and what year?
Mauricio Rubio: I love this question.
90 wins...I'll say the Astros get there first in 2016.
modofacid (Philly): I'm in a 16 team league auction league $260 budget, 3 keepers. 6x6, normal categories with OPS for hitters and BB for pitchers. I have trout ($6) and Segura ($1). Who would you take as a third keeper: C. Archer ($1), Castellanos ($1), Braun ($62), Moustakas ($1), J. Turner ($1).
Mauricio Rubio: It comes down to Archer v Castellanos for me and I'm leaning Castellanos here. The case against him is that he hasn't had the MLB experience that Archer has, but I lean position players and the SP talent pool is pretty thick. I think you can find more value there than at 3B.
Sean (FrozenTundraOfNJ): What are the chances that Brandon Morrow can regain form and be the fantasy anchor everyone's been waiting for?
Mauricio Rubio: I don't like his chances. I've been waiting on the Morrow train to come in for years and I've been left wanting. Obvious stuff, bad results and injuries thus far.
Matt (Boston): How do you best balance what you believe a players worth and what the pre-draft rankings on the drafting site say? For example you like player X for around pick 175. The site has him ranked at 210. Do you risk drafting him earlier than you might have to or risk losing him?
Mauricio Rubio: When you're at the bottom of the draft pool in the later rounds I think the rankings matter less and your personal valuations on a player's positive stats matter more.
In terms of rankings by sites those are good guides but I firmly believe they are tools to get the process started rather than the end result. So I mean, if you like the guy that the site has at 210 but you think he will provide value for your team that's greater than what else is out there, pull the trigger.
Iron Man (36th Chamber): Why is the sky blue? Also, why is water wet? Finally, why did Judas rat to the Romans while Jesus slept?
Mauricio Rubio: Ghostface Killah needs more recognition.
Beattie (RI): Could you possibly provide "tiered" rankings based on OBP leagues? I know PFM can essentially do that. But I find PECOTA is often a little bit off from common sense. Plus why are we still using AVG? It is 2014.
Mauricio Rubio: We're using average because fantasy takes time to change overall. Most people play in average leagues and again it's about providing something of value for the most common leagues.
I'm working on tiered rankings for OBP leagues as well, and I do prefer those leagues to the standard ones, but I'm fine with AVG. It's ok for what it is from a fantasy baseball perspective.
Sandy (Minnesota): Realistic expectations for Justin Verlander in 2014?
Mauricio Rubio: 210~ Innings of SP2-3 baseball. Mid 3 ERA, good K rates, a few clunkers mixed in but overall still a very good pitcher.
Businessman (St. Louis): If I am selling Wacha($1) in a Dynasty league($70 cap with yearly $1 increment salary), who kind of hitter would you be asking for? I can aim higher than Jason Heyward($5), right?
Mauricio Rubio: You certainly can but I think Heyward will provide a valuable season next year. I don't think that's an insulting offer but always see if you can do better.
Kingpin (Grinnell, IA): Standard 5x5 NL-only keeper league with 8 teams & $260 salary cap - at 1B I have Freeman for $33, Belt $18, and Adams at $5. Which 2 do I keep? I assume Adams, but then which of Belt & Freeman?
Mauricio Rubio: That's expensive for Freeman. I would lean Belt and Adams because Belt might provide more positive dollar value than Freeman would.
Mark Bellhorn (Your dreams): What the fuck did I ever do to you?
Mauricio Rubio: Nothing, I loved your 27 HR 56 RBI season.
Rob #'s (NYC): What do you think is the appropriate punishment for throwing out a player who is dead or has been retired for two years at an auction draft? (or for repeatedly throwing out players who have already been drafted)
1 - half full beer can smash to the forehead
2 - forced consumption of at least 5 moonshine soaked cherries
3 - $20 bucks in the lap dance jar for later
Mauricio Rubio: 5 moonshine soaked cherries man. That's a major party foul.
Ben (Your heart): Be honest. If it comes down to it and you have to save me or Craig in Arizona, who would you pick? Remember that I'm younger and more flexible.
Mauricio Rubio: This is a difficult question to answer. #Craig owns a special place in my heart but your athletic profile suggests that you would be more useful in a desert situation further down the road. When the time comes I will assign each of you heads or tails and flip a coin.
The side I'm rooting for most will be saved
Drew (Florida): Verlander for $1 or Shelby Miller for a $1? It looks like a no brainer, but is it? Really? Your thoughts.
Mauricio Rubio: I'd go with Verlander for a dollar but I tend to favor starters who have shown the ability to throw 200 innings consistently here. Shelby has serious upside but I'm comfortable picking Verlander here.
Kauffman (New Jersey): Lots of talk about Baltimore adding a starter or two before the season starts. If that happens, is Gausman a reliever in Baltimore or a starter in AAA??
Mauricio Rubio: I'm going to answer this and Gila Monster from MA here together.
I think they want Gausman to start so I would bet he goes and starts in AAA, but that comes with the caveat that Baltimore will expect to be in contention and may believe that Gausman in the 'pen is better than Gausman at AAA.
We can expect some more growing pains from Gausman in 2014. I think he figures things out as the year goes along and finishes strongly if he's in the rotation.
MerleDixon (Snowy PA): Thanks for the chat. Almost done with a complete rebuild on a dynasty team I took over last year. Needs are a 3B,OF/DH and always SP. I have picks 1,3,12 and 13. Tanaka is who I'm set on taking at 1. How do you rank these guys: Tanaka, Sano, Bryant, Polanco, Syndergaard, Stephenson, Taillon, Castellanos. Expecting to compete next year.
Mauricio Rubio: Sano, Bryant, Tanaka, Stephenson , Polanco, Syndergard Castellanos and it's crowded after Sano and Bryant.
Ned (Springfield): Could you please rank the following for a Dynasty Lg Prospect Draft: Tanaka, Frazier, Gray, Giolito and Abreu
Mauricio Rubio: Giolito Tanaka Fraizer Gray and Abreu
Atlanta Braves (Atlanta): Will be let our players run this year? I feel like Upton/Heyward could be top talent if we actually let them try to flirt with he 15-20 SB mark.
The difference between Upton and Harper seems to be that Harper will run.
Mauricio Rubio: Well, that and HArper can hit 40+ HR's. As to whether they will run? Past history says no, so that's a trend I see continuing.
pat (phx): Hola mi llamo Patricio,
Yo no tengo grande brazos pero tengo grande huevos.
Por favor, dime que el segunda base para el comercio en la dinastia? Sr. Rendon, el Sr. Profar o el Sr. Gyorko.
Gracias!
Mauricio Rubio: Pues yo prefiero a Profar - Rendon y lluego Gyorko
Kyle (Florida): Why does Delino Deshields Jr. not get much love in anyones rankings? His play screams tools and he has a very advanced approach to the game of baseball.
Mauricio Rubio: I think Delino has some makeup concerns and is perceived as not getting enough out of his talents. He's a two tool guy but he has a lot working against him.
Gila Monster (MA): Is pitching so deep this year that you would be willing to wait late on it?
Mauricio Rubio: Somewhat. I wouldn't wait too long on it and I'm someone who prefers to have a true SP1 on my roster but I think if you develop a plan of attack that involves waiting and getting mid rotation value with a high value offense you'll be ok waiting on starters.
nictaclacta (Glendale): Thank you for spending your time with us. As an investor, I favor growth stocks. Is my investment in Julio Urias growing? Or, has he reached the 6 foot height level yet?
Again, thanks.
Mauricio Rubio: I don't know anything about investment trading but Urias is 17, there's still more growth potential there and he might make it to the majors as a teenager if everything breaks right.
Matt (Boston): Could you easily justify taking Tulo or HanRam in the first round?
Mauricio Rubio: Yes, moreso Hanley than Tulowitzki. Hanley, if healthy, provides elite production in five categories. Tulowitzki does it in 4 but he's not stealing bases anymore.
Injury is the obvious concern but you can certainly justify it in the back half of the first round.
Andrew (St. Louis): Would you ever consider keeping a closer in a standard mixed 14 team league? I could have Uehara for under $5 next year...
Mauricio Rubio: Depends on the situation. Uehara is definitely an interesting case and I'd be tempted to keep him for 5 next year as well.
I think it's fine.
Ryan (Toledo): Keep two: Darvish $30, Cashner $3, Verlander $35, Zimmerman $10, Salazar $3, Jimenez $3, Lee $29.
Mauricio Rubio: Cashner, Darvish, and I assume you mean Jordan Zimmermann here.
Keith (Brooklyn): Who do you think will be a high-impact rookie pitcher in 2014? I don't expect another Harvey or Fernandez. But a guy we'll look back on and should have seen coming.
Mauricio Rubio: I've seen this question a lot.
We're currently looking at Yordano Ventura coming, that's my pick for a high value fantasy guy who will make a lot of noise in 2014.
Gerrit Cole showed up in the playoffs, he's going to be a MFer next year. Ditto Sonny Gray.
Dylan (NYC): Do you think Chase Headley is bit of a sleeper? Power upset,good OBP, and I seem to think SD is underrated as a team?
Mauricio Rubio: Yes I do. He had an awful season last year but I think he enjoys a nice bounce back year in 2014 and pairs it with the solid secondary skills he's always showcased to produce a good fantasy year.
SD is underrated in a way, but Buster Onley did pick them to make the playoffs so there's some noise around that team.
Brandon (Springfield MO): I'm in a 20 team points league with a one SP per day maximum. Basically every SP or possible SP is owned. SPs go very early in our minor league draft. Without listing who all is available do you have any sleepers for the back half of the draft who could be low floor SPs? Staying a SP is a must because even 4th and 5th starters with secure jobs have lots of value. Thanks
Mauricio Rubio: Guys like Wei-Yin Chen are the go to guys here. Dan Staily is another guy to look for here, and I would take a gamble on (gulp) Edwin Jackson considering the league setup.
Brandon (Springfield MO): Who bounces back Josh Johnson of Yovanni Gallardo?
Mauricio Rubio: I believe in Yovani Gallardo more than Josh Johnson. He's a safer bet to hit 180 innings than Josh Johnson is.
Danny Salazar (Cleveland ): Is my split-change one of the sexiest pitches you've ever seen?
Mauricio Rubio: It's up there. I have an extreme changeup fetish and the split is one of my favorites. Koji's is the only one that could challenge yours, I think.
RMR (Chicago): If Billy Hamilton gets 600 PA, he allows you to ignore SB throughout the remainder of your lineup. In a 12-team, 5x5, what round should I target him in?
Mauricio Rubio: Someone will grab him earlier than he should be drafted. I wouldn't touch him until at least the 11th round, but he'll likely be gone long before then.
Chris (Phoenix): Does Brett Lawrie take a positive step forward or more of the same and will take longer for a big breakout season?
Mauricio Rubio: I think he takes a small, incremental, but positive step forward this year. I believe in Lawrie despite the red flags.
Gary (Cincinnati): My league is a 10 team h2h 5x5 with five outfield slots. I can keep Billy Hamilton at the cost of a 12th round pick in this years draft. What is a realistic expectation for him assuming he hits at the top of that lineup and plays everyday in CF?
Mauricio Rubio: pairing up with the other Billy Hamilton question, Vince Coleman-esque batting average with 70 Steals if he plays everyday? I don't even know if the steals are low or too high, he's the weirdest guy to project because if he got on at a .340 clip and got the green light he'd be an absolute monster.
We don't know if he can hit enough to boast a good OBP though, so 70 seems about right
The Zoo (SF): The Baby Giraffe has escaped! Can Brandon Belt be a .300/25/100 performer in that ballpark?
Mauricio Rubio: It'll be tough, but he also gets to hit in Coors and Chase so the 25/100 side is possible. I think he's going to be closer to the .280 range though.
Adrian (Miami): Is Prince Fielder worth keeping at $38 this year?
Mauricio Rubio: I don't think so, 1B is deep enough to get better value and spend the money elsewhere. He'd have to put up 38 dollars worth of stats which is tough to do.
Speak of The Devil (SD): What do you make of Tyson Ross and Birch Smith?
Ross was unhittable last season with one of the highest SwgStr% and lowest Contact%, but his track record is checkered.
Mauricio Rubio: Ross's biggest issue is staying healthy. This is like a Morrow comment but if he can give you 180 innings he'll be impressive all year. He has to get there though and I'm not comfortable with gambling there.
Birch Smith is interesting and I like him. Huge K% and really good stuff. He has to work on his command but he's a very interesting pitcher.
Jon (Dallas): I've got a staff right now of Scherzer, Iwakuma, Masterson, Cingrani, Archer and Salazar for $26 ($260 max). I want one more guy (GS limit is 200): what tier/level guy should I be going with? Is it worth going for a Hamels/Greinke/Gio caliber guy? It's a 5x5 roto league
Mauricio Rubio: I'm impressed with the staff for the dollars. Let's assume you have 30-40 starts left before you hit your cap, you'll have the equity to play with your financial flexibility a bit more than most other teams I think when it comes to pitching so getting a guy like Hamels won't kill you from a dollars perspective. I would go for those guys.
justarobert (Santa Clara): At first base, Allen Craig or Victor Martinez? It is perhaps a closer call than I expected. (Linear-weights-like points, 18 teams, modified keeper league; both players have essentially the same keeper cost. Moss is next in line.)
Mauricio Rubio: I would lean Allen Craig here, especially at first base.
Aaron Hicks (Minnesota): Do I break out this year?
Mauricio Rubio: I don't think I'm ready to enter into that type of a relationship with you.
Matt (MA): What are you thinking on Shelby Miller?
He obviously had a great season last year and was a top prospect. But he struggled late in the season, had a missing persons report out on him in the playoffs, and threw his fastball way too much.
Mauricio Rubio: He's got great upside still, but he was missing in the WS due to a shoulder issue and that raises a red flag for me. I think he's got a lot of obvious potential and this is a very important year for him.
Keith (Brooklyn): I know Spring Training rarely means much, but are there any guys we should keep a close eye on? To see if they are returning from injury well/keeping gains in control/breaking camp?
Mauricio Rubio: Mike Olt is my de facto pick for "guy to watch in spring training". The Cubs offense is a damn mess and I don't think they can stomach playing Darwin Barney and Luis Valbuena for all that much longer. I think they would love Olt to win the job out of spring.
APJ74137 (Tulsa): 17 team keeper, with 5 roster spots for minor leaguers. Thinking about offering a cheap Uehara for Jon Singleton and David Dahl. Thoughts?
Mauricio Rubio: I'm a worshiper at the Church of Dahl, so I like it.
Charles (Boston): Looking at the Yahoo rankings, are there any stand-out guys that they have way too high or too low? Porcello was one stand out for me.
Mauricio Rubio: I think they do a fine job of ranking players but I do have a few disagreements with their lists. I strongly recommend that people make their own lists by aggregating as much information as they can. I do think they have Ian Desmond a bit too low, I think Donaldson and Machado are as well, but again, it's a simple difference of opinion and player eval.
seabass77 (Milwaukee): 20 team keeper league. 5x5. Have Jansen and Holland as closers. Normally I would buy 7 starters but I'm thinking of buying 1 set up guy even though our league does not count holds. I'm looking for a guy that has 70 innings of awesome WHIP/ERA to offset a failed starter. Anyone who will sniff saves will be bought in my league. Who can I get that won't be getting saves but will be an awesome relief ace?
Mauricio Rubio: Tyler Clippard, Ryan Cook, Pedro strop, Junichi Tazawa are my first four go to guys. Tyler Clippard is a bit scary but the man puts up Scot Shields level production.
Jacob S (Huntsville, AL): So is this the year Travis Snider finally has a breakout season?
Mauricio Rubio: You know, I think it might finally be Snider time.
Captain Curious (Bathroom): MFK: Bret, Ben, Craig
Mauricio Rubio: M - Bret
F - Craig and Ben
K - Myself.
seabass77 (milwaukee): 20 team keeper league. 5x5. runs is the fifth category. I have Brad Miller @ $10. Keep or throw back and buy for lower?
Mauricio Rubio: Inflation is a mother. I would try to buy back for lower.
ClaytonThompson (Columbia, MO): Prospect starting pitcher you'd be targeting in a draft?
Mauricio Rubio: I'm highly targeting Taijuan Walker and Yordano Ventura. I think both of those guys have high value seasons.
Sosa's Sommelier (Chicago): Who starts for the two Leagues in the 2017 all star game? Probably too long an answer for a chat. How about same question, but only the 25 and under players?
Mauricio Rubio: I've been thinking about this one, and it'll have to be an article, sorry. But I would like to think that both Baez and Buxton are starting on those teams.
rsambrook (Granite Bay): Can Cory Kluber repeat his moderate success from a year ago, or do you see some regression?
Mauricio Rubio: I see more regression than repetition. I don't think he falls off a cliff but I'm bearish on him.
Matt Wisler (San Diego ): Am I the most underrated SP prospect in the minors?
Mauricio Rubio: I don't like the term underrated, but I do find you intriguing. You're kinda funky and you miss bats, I dig that combo.
cdgoldstein ( dc): In the mfk scenario, who was a tenderer lover? Me or Ben?
Mauricio Rubio: You kept trying to look me in the eyes which was weird, so I guess you.
Josh (Montreal): We say a lot of unexpected "step forwards" from some guys in 2013.
Ubaldo,Liriano,Kazmir,Masterson,Lackey,Kluber come to mind. In a different sense. Bucholz comes to mind. Most of these guys are available later on in the draft.
How do you evaluate these guys in the draft? Are these just the guys you have to bet on maintaining gains/staying healthy?
Mauricio Rubio: Different categories for each guy. Ubaldo, Masterson, Kluber and Lackey belong in the "keeping the gains" section while Liriano (to some extent) Kazmir and Buchholz are injury concerns. I tend to value the "keeping gains" guys more than the injury risks because you need to pitch to accrue stats, but in each bin there are guys that I'm comfortable taking late or dropping a dollar on.
Buchholz is the one I would value the most out of this group, and oddly enough Ubaldo is a guy I would stay away from.
You just have to Keep in mind what type of value you expect in each case and understand the gambles.
Guest (my cubicle): Keep Erasmo or Straily?
Mauricio Rubio: Straily, but cost would change the answer, I think.
Frank (Houston): What is your prediction for when George Springer will be called up? There seems to be a lot of difference of opinion over whether he'll be an All Star or strike out too much. What do you think?
Mauricio Rubio: Lotta Springer questions as well. I think he gets called up this year and will strike out so damn much. I think he avoids the Bret Jackson path but there's a lot of swing and miss in his game.
contori66 (Indiana): 16 team dynasty league. Granderson at $11 or Prado at $22? Prado has 2b, 3b & OF eligibility. I'm ok at 2b and 3b.
Mauricio Rubio: If you're ok at 2B and 3B I'll take Granderson at $11.
Rob #'s (NYC): How much of "finding" prospects is exactly that? At the upper levels, players with say the same exact skill sets are separated by two things, injuries and willpower. And willpower is one of the hardest things in the world to judge on a 18-21 year old. Do you think scouts to general managers get too much credit?
Mauricio Rubio: I actually think that scouts/GMs don't get enough credit here. We've seen a few teams like the Cardinals, Rays, and Pirates really nail the drafting and development process. I think they are examples of well run organizations that do a good job of identifying talent.
I also think it's difficult to find guys with the same skill sets at the upper levels who will make it.
James (NYC): Hi Mauricio..
Enjoying what you guys are doing. I am in a 16 team dynasty league with a 50 player minor league system. I usually just go for best talent but always end up with more pitchers than hitters somehow. Do you have a preferred breakdown in such a deep format?
My rational is that pitchers are more volatile so you need more of them around. I also hate trading hitters for pitchers in most cases so I don't want to keep hitters in my system to only trade them for pitchers.
Mauricio Rubio: That's a deep system.
I would lean bats in most formats but I would double down on that in your minor league systems. If it's auction I would allocate about 30% of your cap to pitchers. 70/30 is a pretty typical split, I think.
Stringer Bell (MD): In a keeper league where players kept go up by 4 rounds from where they were drafted year after year (21-round draft) what prospect would you target this season? Is this year too soon to take Buxton just to keep him at -4 next year?
Where would you take Profar?
Mauricio Rubio: I think it might be too soon to take Buxton inside the top ten rounds in this format. I would likely target a guy like Oscar Taveras here, someone who is close to contributing soon.
Gonna wrap this up in 10 minutes.
Jon (NYC): Do you think Addison Russell makes it up this year? If so when?
Mauricio Rubio: I have him pegged for making it up next year for good, but this year isn't out of the question.
Shawnykid23 (CT): Any reason to hold on to the Eraser in a 10 team dynasty? Or has the sparkle gone away?
Mauricio Rubio: Sure, there's enough reason to hold onto him. Some of the gloss has rubbed off his prospect sparkle and he needs that changeup to earn a rotation spot, but in a dynasty format I would still hang on to hope.
Gila Monster (MA): Thanks for doing such a long chat and answering a bunch of questions.
What do you see from Smyly from the rotation in 2014? He was obviously dominated in the bullpen, but I don't like to see the lack of a changeup from a starter even though he is a lefty.
Mauricio Rubio: I agree, but again I'm a CH enthusiast.
He has the stuff to to miss bats so I would expect a smaller workload in terms of innings with solid to good peripheral stats. He'll be a really nice mid rotation guy this year, I think.
Dan (Boston): Is it risky having 4 OFs locked up going into the draft: Heyward ($11), Granderson ($7), Werth ($7), Yelich ($1)? $260 budget for auction draft.
Mauricio Rubio: I would personally toss Granderson back and see if you can get help at a different position but Heyward Werth and Yellich will provide good value at the dollars.
Jon (NYC): Re: Addison Russell.
do you think he comes up early enough this year to lose his rookie eligibility or is 130 ABs too high a threshold for him?
Mauricio Rubio: Interesting question, I'll say that his rookie eligibility is safe.
Russ (San Diego): 14 team standard roto keeper league. $260 Auction budget with +$4 inflation per year, no limit on years. Wheeler $5 and Shelby $5 for Carlos Gomez $9. Who wins and is it close? Thanks Mauricio.
Mauricio Rubio: I'll say the Wheeler Shelby side but it's very close.
John (Chicago): I think I am voting for you in the Republican primary in 25 months.
Mauricio Rubio: I am NOT Marco Rubio.
Mauricio Rubio: I think we're ready to get out of here, thanks for all the questions and if I didn't answer yours I'm very sorry but there were so many damn good ones.
Until next time!
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