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Chat: Bret Sayre

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Wednesday March 27, 2013 8:00 PM ET chat session with Bret Sayre.


Stop by Bret's inaugural BP chat as you prep for a busy weekend of fantasy drafting.

Bret Sayre: And so it begins. Friends, Romans, Countrymen, lend me your fantasy baseball questions. Or any questions, really. Let's have some fun.

CharlieHodge (MetsNation): What do you think of Ross Detwiler improving on last year's minor breakout? As #5 guy in a strong rotation, do you think he could perform up to the level of a true #3 or even a #2?

Bret Sayre: Not really - I think last year was pretty good representation of what he could be. There's nothing wrong with solid ratios and a strikeout rate which could touch 16%.

Cory (Calgary): In a keeper league, with the following rich pitching available... How would you rank them: Hamels, Weaver, Greinke, Sabathia, Cueto, Gallardo, Lester (note, I'm afraid of Weaver)

Bret Sayre: I'd go Hamels, Sabathia, Greinke, Cueto, Weaver, Gallado, Lester. I'm a little weary of Weaver as well - I know he's a pretty consistent outperformer of his peripherals, just worried one of these drops in velocity will be the one that knocks him over the edge.

Keith (Manchester, CT): Thanks Bret. Please rank in terms of 2013 performance and career? Eric Hosmer, Brandon Belt and Domonic Brown

Bret Sayre: Hosmer, Brown, Belt. Even with the spring he's having, I'm not sold on Belt being any sort of real power threat at the major league level. And I still believe Hosmer will be a stud.

Tim (LA): For your last pitcher in a keeper league, of this group, who would you pick, with an eye to winning this year (always the case but I've got a good chance this year...) Cashner/Tillman/Porcello/Teheran/Cobb/Estrada/Miller

Bret Sayre: For me, it's between Miller and Cobb, and I'd probably go with Miller if there are enough keepers in the league that you'd be realistically considering taking him into next season. He's got the highest upside of the group, and he has a job now. If he's probably not a realistic keeper, I'd take Cobb, as I have him ranked highest for 2013.

Derek (Seattle): Bret, what mid level closer do you like for the year in a keeper league: Wilhelmsen, Holland, Perkins, Romo or Janssen?

Bret Sayre: Of that group, I'd take Wilhelmsen. The risk is that the Mariners are bad and end up trading him at the deadline, but I actually don't think that will happen. Holland and Perkins would be 2nd and 3rd on my list. In fact, I like that ranking you have right there in the question.

Matt (Hartford,CT): Thanks for taking questions Bret. I have Yasiel Puig on my fantasy team. Given that we don't know when he'll get called up, is it worth it to keep him on my bench for later in the year, or should I drop him and pick up someone like Jackie Bradley?

Bret Sayre: If it's a redraft, I'd forget about both guys and grab someone who will help you more this year. Puig needs more minor league time, and there's not much opportunity for him. Bradley is just not that special of an offensive player, and he needs more time too. Plus, he won't have a spot once Ortiz returns. Neither have played at Triple-A, and they both likely need to. If it's a keeper, I want Puig.

Alex (Anaheim): I may be a grown man, but my father always beats me to the late round sleepers. Who might I be overlooking this year?

Bret Sayre: If you can wait another 12 hours or so, I'm posting my 20 favorite endgame sleepers tomorrow. But just to give you a sneak peak, the first guy on the list is the consistently underrated Edwin Jackson.

JP (LA): Evan Gattis worth a flyer in an 11-team NL only 5x5 league? Need to pick up a catcher and only others available are Hundley, McKenry, Laird, Navarro and Maldanado.

Bret Sayre: If those are your options, absolutely. Gattis could put up nice numbers for an NL-only endgame catcher in April before McCann comes back.

MerleDixon (R.I.P.): Guy in my dynasty league is offering Pujols for trade. My lineup: Rosario(C), Howard(1B), Altuve(2B), Frazier(3B), Desmond(SS), BJ Upton(OF), Adam Jones(OF), De Aza(OF), Cuddyer(OF) SP: Wainwright, Burnett, E. Jackson(CHC), Harvey, Hammel Bench: Carpenter, Rutledge, Puig, Soler, Olt, P: Straily, Hultzen, Cole and Gausman. I have 2 first round picks next year. Thinking of offering the 2 picks and an OF and pitching prospect(have Cole, Hultzen and Gausman) for Pujols. Does that offer get it done? If I get Pujols, what kind of pitchers should I flip him for?

Bret Sayre: This is a perfect time to remind everyone that trading for players with the specific intention of flipping them is a bad, bad idea -- especially in a dynasty league. No, that offer probably doesn't get it done - and if the other owner were to accept it, I'd be happy with Pujols on my team and move on.

DanMizer (Boston): What do you think of the strategy in 10tm NL 5x5 starting 2 catchers of drafting 2nd catcher D'Anaurd which won't hurt categories (1st C-Posey)??

Bret Sayre: I don't mind it, but you should be able to at least grab a backup for the first two months of the season or so. It's very low risk if you're talking about someone likely to only get around 40-50 at bats.

RotoLando (Cloud City): The Guru himself. Welcome. This is a perfect opportunity to explain your undying love for Brian Goodwin, perhaps in the context of what to expect and when to expect it?

Bret Sayre: Thanks! What is there not to love about Brian Goodwin? He can hit for some pop, he's got speed, he knows how to draw a walk, and he has the tools to be able to hit for a good average. He'll need the whole 2013 season in the minors, and he appears to be blocked in Washington (but then again, who isn't), but continued development could make him a top-20 outfielder in the next couple of years.

Adam (Fairport NY): Which injured or struggling players are you thinking are good buy low guys? Specifically, I'm thinking of guys who are expected to make opening day or a week after, like Ortiz, Panda, Lawrie, Halladay and Motte.

Bret Sayre: I'm staying far away from Halladay and Motte, unless I already drafted them (oops!) - but I've been very comfortable taking Ortiz where he's falling in drafts. Lawrie and Panda should be pretty small issues, so I wouldn't worry about taking them either.

Frank (Phillie): How do you rank middle-tier OFs in an OBP league: Choo, Gordon, A. Jackson, Melky, DesJennings.

Bret Sayre: In an OBP league, I'll go Choo, Gordon, A-Jax, Jennings, Melky.

Jim (PA): In a 16-team dynasty/keeper, 7x7 (OBP, XBH, QS, Holds), should I consider trading Ellsbury for Bundy? I'd have Ruiz, EE, Scutaro, Al. Escobar, R. Zimmerman, JUp, Braun, Ad. Jones, and can rotate Quentin, Gomes, Garret Jones for 2 Util. spots and can stream hitters if I want. I also have Teixeira on the DL. My SP are Darvish, Cliff Lee, Doc, the rest are fillers.

Bret Sayre: I'd want another small piece in addition to Bundy if I'm making that trade. That back-end of your lineup is risky - especially if Teixeira's injury ends up being more serious. Bundy is great and all, but he won't help your team very much this year.

Mitchell Rembold (Iowa): Will Marcell Ozuna get his chance? It looks like that will be a pretty crowded outfield with Yelich and Marisnick in the next couple of years.

Bret Sayre: He's going to need to keep proving that he can make contact as he makes his way up the chain. If he does what he's capable of, they'll make a spot for him.

Mitch (Ia): Would you trade Puig and Daniel Murphy for Hellickson in a dynasty? With all the buzz on Puig would it make more sense to just hold on to him and wait on a better offer?

Bret Sayre: That's a pretty good trade, but with PuigMania in full force, I'd see if you can extract more out of either this owner or someone else. Take advantage of it.

Ben (Bakersfield): Hi Bret, who do you keep: Myers/Machado/Profar

Bret Sayre: If forced to pick one, I'd take Profar - unless you need someone who will be playing to start the season, then roll with Machado.

M (NY): Vanilla 5x5 league (no keepers), just dealt Prado and Votto for Harper and Austin Jackson. My new 3B is Pedro Alvarez. Did I do ok?

Bret Sayre: Seems like a pretty even trade to me. Harper is a small downgrade from Votto and A-Jax is a small upgrade from Prado.

Billy (Beantown): How would you rank the following young SPs in terms of 2013 breakout potential: Hellickson, Harvey, Lynn, Niese, Parker?

Bret Sayre: If you want a ranking by odds of becoming a top-25 pitcher, I'd rank them Harvey, Lynn, Hellickson, Parker, Niese. Harvey has monster upside.

Joe (Detroit): How do you feel about drafting Bundy to a major league roster for 2013 in a 5 year keeper league (standard 12 team) What do you see as his fair auction value in that kind of keeper format knowing that he may have a limited impact (if any) for this year.

Bret Sayre: I wouldn't throw more than a dollar or two on him in a 12 teamer. Though if by 5 year keeper, you mean you keep everyone on your roster for 5 years, I might bump that to $3-5 - just don't grab too many prospects.

Tomahawk Nation (Florida): How many more starts will David Price make in Tampa?

Bret Sayre: 77 regular season starts, 83 including the post season. Then the Rays deal him after the 2014 season.

Pedro (Punxatawny): How do you rank young SPs for this year only: Scherzer, Sale, Latos, Moore, Medlen?

Bret Sayre: Scherzer, Sale, Moore, Latos, gap, Medlen. Very close among those first four.

Paulie (Punxatawny): Do V-Mart or Napoli offer enough upside to warrant drafting in the middle rounds when I could wait 'til very late and grab Lucroy or Doumit?

Bret Sayre: Personally, I think Napoli might, but I'm waiting as long as possible to take a catcher in shallow one-catcher leagues for that exact reason. If Doumit's there at the end, that's cool with me.

Jonny (Johnsonville): How do you rank Votto, Prince, Kemp, and McCutchen in an OBP league?

Bret Sayre: Kemp, Votto, Prince, Cutch.

TexasLeaguer (Milwaukee): In general, for drafting minor leaguers how would you balance high ceilings versus more of a sure thing but lower ceiling? Or would you give more weight to guys further along in development.

Bret Sayre: Depends on the size of the league. If it's a shallower (less than 16 teams) league, I'd be shooting for upside almost every time. If it's a deeper format, I'd mix a couple of safe guys in.

Bryce Liesemer (Calgary, Alberta, Canada): Whats your opinion on Brandon Maurer? Draftable in a 12 or 14 team H2H category mixed leagues? What about dynasty value? Would you take a flier on him over guys like Worley, Griffin, Kendrick? Thanks!

Bret Sayre: I wouldn't be drafting Maurer in 12 or 14 team mixed leagues. Dynasty leagues, sure, and I'd rather have him in that format than Kendrick or Worley.

Chris (Buffalo): When would you guess Profar passes zobrist as far as starting on my dynasty team? What potential do A Russell and A Sanchez have?

Bret Sayre: Mid-2014. Profar is major league ready and I like him to start contributing immediately once he gets the call. Russell could be a 25 HR shortstop with a solid average and Sanchez could be a 200 K starter with a solid ERA -- long way to go for both of them though.

Donald Loria (Milwaukee): Will the following staff be sufficient in a 12 team league: Gio, Bumgardner, Moore, AJ Burnett, Milone?

Bret Sayre: More depth would be nice, but that top four is very solid.

Wendy (Washington): AGonz is going relatively cheap in auctions...think he's relatively safe for 25/100 with a good OBP?

Bret Sayre: Yes, think he's safe for that. He's been a very good value in a lot of places this preseason.

sbnbaseball (Dodger Stadium): Bret - Ray here....MOAR PUIG. That is all.

Bret Sayre: MOAR PUIG. It's only an 11 hour drive for me to get to Chattanooga..

Chris (Toronto): Drop Starling Marte for Domonic Brown? Too close to call? Or drop Marte for Matt Cerpenter? (Espinosa and Rutledge are my 2B)? Thanks.

Bret Sayre: No and no. Don't bail on Marte - he has more upside than any of those guys for fantasy.

Donald Loria (Milwaukee): As a last round bat for my Util/Bench in a deep league, would you prefer Colvin, Carter, EYJr, or Alonso. Who has more upside overall??

Bret Sayre: Most upside is probably Carter, but I'd feel very comfortable rolling with Alonso. Underrated bat.

DetroitDale (Florida (eternal spring)): What real team has a better 5 man fantasy rotation than Detroit's (assuming pro cello doesn't get traded?

Bret Sayre: Maybe just Washington.

sbnbaseball (Foley's): Got this offer in an NL only redraft: My Latos for Bailey and Motte. Already have two closers-League and Putz. I worry Motte's injury is more serious.

Bret Sayre: I'd hold off for now - with two closers, you should be in good shape anyway, and the Motte situation is one I'm trying to avoid when possible.

sbnbaseball (New Jersey): One more offer I received today in an NL keeper: my Rutledge ($10 S1) for Lance Lynn ($4 S1)?

Bret Sayre: Yes. But I'm a known Rutledge non-believer.

Jay (CA): Gerrit Cole, Heredia, and Anibal Sanchez for Braun in real MLB salary league, good deal? I still have some decent pitching prospects left, and I figure with Goldschmidt, Miggy, McCutchen, and Braun I am set offensively.

Bret Sayre: Yes, I'd make that deal. It's only pitching, after all.

Cody (Cincinnati): What do you see for Anthony Rendon in 2014? A) Nats starting 2B B) Nats starting elsewhere C) Some other team starting 3B (due to trade)

Bret Sayre: Realistically, I see him playing 3B for another organization. The Nats are clearly contenders and could use him a great trade chip. Plus, there's just too much downside to putting a guy who has a history of ankle problems at 2B - even though they could really use him there.

one down (one to go): Tim McCarver is retiring (after this year, alas). How do we get rid of Joe Buck? Lock him in a room with William Shatner and Newt Gingrich ponderously repeating shopworn chiches until Buck's head explodes?

Bret Sayre: The mute button.

Donald Loria (Milwaukee): In a deep (20 team x 25 spots), H2H dynasty league, my SP staff is Cain, Weaver, Greinke, Scherzer, Darvish, Zimmerman. But, no sig. prospects. Should I look to get younger with trades, or ride out the 2-3 year window I have to contend??

Bret Sayre: Ride it out and build your prospects through taking high-upside players in the draft. Don't diminish your team to avoid a rebuilding process down the road. Embrace the future rebuilding process and push all in.

Ben (Bakersfield): Just saw your comment on Marte v Brown. in a redraft league, you would take Marte over Brown?

Bret Sayre: Yes.

Wilma (West Chester): What's your preference on the middle-round speed options who won't kill your OBP: Aoki, Victorino, Gardner, De Aza, Pagan?

Bret Sayre: They're all pretty interchangeable, but I'd prefer Gardner or Pagan, whoever you can get later in your draft, based on their values.

Sam (San Jose): Follow up to OBP question: Do you move Votto over Kemp if offensive Ks is a category?

Bret Sayre: It makes them pretty much a dead heat.

Anna (Arizona): Gee, Maurer or arrietta?

Bret Sayre: Gee.

Chesty (New Bern,NC): Bret,we don't get this chance with you to ask straight questions.I am thinking of picking Nunez as bench security until Headley or Hanley return.Not much to pick from drafted last week.Thanks again

Bret Sayre: I'm always on Twitter (@dynastyguru), and answer plenty of questions there. Not sure what the question is, but I like Nunez for the beginning of the season.

stewbies (Rochester, NY): 14 team 5 x 5 snake draft, we each keep 4 players, so our draft starts basically in the fifth round. I have Trout, Braun, Cespedes and Darvish. I have 3 picks at numbers at the beginning of round 2. While I normally wait on closers, I'm thinking of taking Kimbrel or Chapman with one of the picks so I can then wait on additional closers until much later in the draft. Good or bad idea? Also, would you consider an OF like Cruz or Jennings, or go for infielders since I already have 3 OF's? The infielders I expect to be available include Lawrie, Rizzo, Freeman, Altuve, Davis and Hosmer. Thanks.

Bret Sayre: If they are there at around 90th overall, which it sounds like is the range of your first few picks, that's fine to take one of the elite guys. But I doubt they make it to you.

Carlester (The Present): Thanks for the chat Bret. Huge fan of your work. AL keeper league, $260, with some inflation for hitters. $24 for Hosmer too rich?

Bret Sayre: Thanks! That sounds like a pretty good number to me - like him to have a solid bounce back season this year.

Mitchell Rembold (IA): Happ or Maurer for this year?

Bret Sayre: Maurer, but Happ just became a very interesting guy in deep leagues, especially AL-only.

Ron (Reisterstown): Thoughts on Everth Cabrera vs. Bonifacio as a late speed option at MI?

Bret Sayre: Bonifacio, and not particularly close.

TexasLeaguer (Milwaukee): 12 team AL only (5x5) I have Hosmer in extend year. How long would you extend him, current salary is $1. Standard $5/per year extension.

Bret Sayre: I'd extend him at $16 for 3 more years. I believe.

straymond (toronto): Not a question. Just a comment. Thanks so so much for bringing a dynasty perspective to BP!

Bret Sayre: Thanks! Glad you're enjoying it.

sbnbaseball (New Jersey): So, Lynn over Rutledge in 12 team NL only? sell me on Lynn.

Bret Sayre: His best quality is that he's not Rutledge. I kid, I kid. He could win 16+ and strike out 180+ again. He's built to throw a lot of innings and last year was the transition year.

Halo Fan (SoCal): How would you rank David Dahl, Gregory Polanco, and Alen Hanson in a dynasty league that uses OBP, SLG, HR, RBI, SB+Runs, and a negative category for Total Errors Committed?

Bret Sayre: Hanson, Polanco, Dahl. Dahl has lots of potential, but need to see him hit in full season ball before I get more excited.

DrSeth (Tempe, AZ): So I did a list draft on mlb.com league and somehow got CSantana, Napoli and Vmart all in consecutive picks in the middle and Grandal near the end. I immediately traded Napoli for Kipnis to address a minor need at 2B (have walker). A few hours later I got offered Granderson for Cespedes and then Tex/Bourjos for Ryan Flippin Braun. Is this just the nature of public leagues or was Napoli for Kipnis extra stupid on my part? I really don't understand. (Other weakness is 3B but that is kind of thin at the moment.)

Bret Sayre: People will make dumb trade offers, that's just the nature of the game. I like the Napoli for Kipnis trade though.

Jose (San Juan): Rank me some late 1B options: Laroche, Morales, Morneau, Berkman, Swisher?

Bret Sayre: LaRoche, Morneau, Swisher, Morales, Berkman.

Jim (PA): Thanks. Also in that same 16-teamer, how close is Halladay for Uggla and Singleton?

Bret Sayre: I'd grab whatever cents on the dollar I could for Halladay at this point. I'm not optimistic.

Thad (Peoria): Who are some sleeper or late round 2Bs you like this season?

Bret Sayre: 2B has just about no upside late in drafts, so they're all boring options like Jeff Keppinger and Daniel Murphy. Grab one before the bottom falls out of the position.

Mitchell Rembold (IA): What to do with Romero in a very deep dynasty?

Bret Sayre: Hold for now and hope that the scenery in Dunedin is just the antidote he needs to cure his terribleness.

NeighborhoodCelebrity (Indy): I'm looking for some late power in an OPS league. Any not-so-obvious lottery ticket type guys that might be worth grabbing? Parmelee, Smoak, Berkman still there. Thanks in advance....love your stuff.

Bret Sayre: Thanks! I'd go Berkman and hope for the best. He could post really nice numbers while he stays healthy.

Juan (San Jose): How do you rank Heyward, Hamilton, Holliday and AGonz in an OBP league?

Bret Sayre: Heyward, AGonz, Hamilton, Holliday.

Thad (Peoria): I have Lonnie Chisenhall as my only 3B and am wondering whether to roll the dice with Mark Reynolds to back him up. Are there any undervalued 3Bs you like this season?

Bret Sayre: You should be fine with Chisenhall - and if you're going to take another flier to back him up, go with someone like Josh Donaldson, who could be very solid this year.

Halo Fan (SoCal): So you wouldn't be concerned about Alen Hanson's 40 errors last season in a league with errors as a negative category?

Bret Sayre: Not at all. It's Low-A and he likely won't have to worry about playing SS in the majors.

softyelectric (dekalb): Saw question ranking Medlen - why lower? Is it risk or (lack of) upside? Do you see a legitimate scenario where he puts up ace-ish numbers? Reassure me and my life choices.

Bret Sayre: I don't - he's a good pitcher, but he had a great run against inferior competition. He doesn't have the skills to be a fantasy ace, and I don't think he's a top-25 pitcher.

ganz1080 (Ct): Can you rank these outfielders in a league that counts avg and OBP. De Aza, Aoki, markakis, pagan, torii hunter. Thanks!

Bret Sayre: Aoki, Markakis, Pagan, De Aza, Hunter.

Erik (Saratoga NY): took over a team in a dyansty league, 3 keeper bats, 3 arms. went young in hopes of finding studs. How do you Rank: Hosmer, Myers, Tavares, Machado, Profar over ther next few years?

Bret Sayre: Hosmer, Profar, Taveras, Machado, Myers. Hosmer gets the nod because of 2013 value.

Tom (Tinseltown): How do you rank Lester, Morrow, Kennedy, Samardjia, Fister, Peavy?

Bret Sayre: Morrow, Peavy, Lester, Samardzija, Fister, Kennedy. The top four are very close.

JP (Roanoke): Temporary 3B to replace Headley in deep league: Francisco, Callaspo, Donaldson, or Dominguez? Thanks.

Bret Sayre: Donaldson, but Francisco is also a good option if you need the most amount of power possible.

Thad (Peoria): Do you see Andrelton Simmons or Jean Segura having a potential top 10 SS season?

Bret Sayre: Segura, maybe. Simmons, no.

Thad (Peoria): Who are setup guys you could see taking over the 9th this season? Do you think Trevor Rosenthal is a smart stash or do you think Boggs does fine?

Bret Sayre: Fujikawa, Benoit and Rosenthal are the top three I've been targeting. And yes, I really like Rosenthal as a stash, he could be a potential dominant bullpen arm and I think they'll go to him eventually if the injury to Motte ends up being particularly serious.

Cody (Cincinnati): Similar to the Rendon question, will Mike Olt get a shot in Texas as a 1B (over Moreland), OF or as a 3B elsewhere?

Bret Sayre: Same as Rendon - 3B elsewhere. Texas has some holes and having Olt as a trade chip could really help fill it.

Dobbs (Delaware): How would you rank these for a dynasty league: Xander Bogaerts, Yasuil Puig, Christian Yellich, Taijuan Walker, Tyler Skaggs

Bret Sayre: Bogaerts, Yelich, Walker, Skaggs, Puig.

Schiraldi (Baltimore): In a deep OBP auction league and trying to talk myself into waiting past the Alvarez/Moustakas tier and saving a few bucks by going in on Lonnie Chisenhall. With all the usual caveats about spring stats, he's walked 7 times and struck out 8 so far. How big a gap do you see from Chiz to Alvarez/Moustakas.

Bret Sayre: Definitely a gap - but a much bigger one from Moose to Chisenhall than from Alvarez to Chisenhall. Think Moustakas could have a very, very nice season this year.

Bret Sayre: Thanks everyone for all the questions. Good luck to everyone drafting this weekend!

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