WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA..
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shownClick to hide.
2016 WAS MLB 6 4 21.3 0 1 0 26 12 11 7 86 11.0 5.1 3.0 4.6 42% .271 1.78 8.24 6.75 127 7.03 155.5 -0.4
2017 CHA MLB 7 7 45.3 3 3 0 31 12 34 8 104 6.2 2.4 1.6 6.8 47% .189 0.95 4.93 2.38 108 4.27 90.8 0.7
2018 CHA MLB 32 32 173.3 10 13 0 166 90 125 27 103 8.6 4.7 1.4 6.5 45% .268 1.48 5.59 6.13 125 6.58 147.1 -2.5
2019 CHA MLB 29 29 176.7 14 9 0 131 57 228 24 100 6.7 2.9 1.2 11.6 36% .273 1.06 3.46 3.41 79 2.81 57.6 5.7

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
2012 NAT Rk GCL 1 1 2.0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 84 9.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 0% .333 1.00 2.43 4.50 94 4.32 89.9
2013 AUB A- NYP 3 3 14.0 1 0 0 9 4 14 1 106 5.8 2.6 0.6 9.0 0% .250 0.93 3.30 0.64 93 3.14 68.2
2013 NAT Rk GCL 8 8 22.7 1 1 0 19 10 25 0 98 7.5 4.0 0.0 9.9 0% .322 1.28 2.57 2.78 89 3.65 79.4
2014 HAG A SAL 20 20 98.0 10 2 0 70 28 110 7 101 6.4 2.6 0.6 10.1 0% .263 1.00 3.15 2.20 84 2.37 50.1
2015 POT A+ CAR 13 11 69.7 3 5 0 65 20 86 1 96 8.4 2.6 0.1 11.1 0% .352 1.22 1.95 2.71 63 3.27 71.8
2015 HAR AA EAS 8 8 47.3 4 2 0 48 17 45 2 93 9.1 3.2 0.4 8.6 0% .341 1.37 3.18 3.80 91 5.01 109.8
2016 WAS MLB NL 6 4 21.3 0 1 0 26 12 11 7 86 11.0 5.1 3.0 4.6 42% .271 1.78 8.24 6.75 127 7.03 155.5
2016 HAG A SAL 1 1 7.0 0 0 0 6 0 4 2 103 7.7 0.0 2.6 5.1 36% .200 0.86 5.96 5.14 122 4.83 106.6
2016 HAR AA EAS 14 14 71.0 5 3 0 67 34 72 2 101 8.5 4.3 0.3 9.1 53% .323 1.42 3.30 3.17 91 4.21 93.1
2016 SYR AAA INT 7 7 37.3 1 2 0 31 10 40 3 102 7.5 2.4 0.7 9.6 56% .298 1.10 2.95 2.17 80 3.28 72.4
2017 CHA MLB AL 7 7 45.3 3 3 0 31 12 34 8 104 6.2 2.4 1.6 6.8 47% .189 0.95 4.93 2.38 108 4.27 90.8
2017 CHR AAA INT 24 24 128.7 6 10 0 122 59 134 17 105 8.5 4.1 1.2 9.4 45% .312 1.41 4.44 4.48 102 4.89 104.1
2018 CHA MLB AL 32 32 173.3 10 13 0 166 90 125 27 103 8.6 4.7 1.4 6.5 45% .268 1.48 5.59 6.13 125 6.58 147.1
2019 CHA MLB AL 29 29 176.7 14 9 0 131 57 228 24 100 6.7 2.9 1.2 11.6 36% .273 1.06 3.46 3.41 79 2.81 57.6

Plate Discipline

YEAR Pits Zone% Swing% Contact% Z-Swing% O-Swing% Z-Contact% O-Contact% SwStr%
2016 398 0.5000 0.4497 0.8603 0.6583 0.2412 0.9084 0.7292 0.1397
2017 701 0.4850 0.4907 0.7733 0.6912 0.3019 0.8851 0.5321 0.2267
2018 3005 0.4759 0.4309 0.7861 0.6287 0.2514 0.8587 0.6212 0.2139
2019 2808 0.5167 0.4936 0.6746 0.6747 0.2999 0.7416 0.5135 0.3254

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2013-02-15 2013-04-01 Camp 45 0 Right Elbow Recovery From Surgery Tommy John Surgery 2012-08-31 -
2012-08-15 2012-09-05 Minors 21 10 Right Elbow Surgery Tommy John Surgery 2012-08-31 -


Year Team Salary
2022 CHA $7,450,000
2021 CHA $4,150,000
2020 CHA $627,000
2019 CHA $573,000
2018 CHA $555,000
2017 CHA $
2016 WAS $
4 yrPrevious$5,905,000
5 yrPvs + Cur$13,355,000
5 yrTotal$13,355,000


Service TimeAgentContract Status
4 y 80 dCAA1 year/$7.45M (2022)

  • 1 year/$7.45M (2022). Re-signed by Chicago White Sox 4/1/22 (avoided arbitration, $7.5M-$7.3M).
  • 1 year/$4.15M (2021). Re-signed by Chicago White Sox 1/15/21 (avoided arbitration).
  • 1 year/$627,000 (2020). Re-signed by Chicago White Sox 3/20.
  • 1 year/$573,000 (2019). Re-signed by Chicago White Sox 3/19.
  • 1 year/$555,000 (2018). Re-signed by Chicago White Sox 2/18.
  • 1 year (2017). Acquired by Chicago White Sox in trade from Washington 12/7/16. Re-signed by Chicago White Sox 2/17.
  • 1 year (2016). Contract selected by Washington 6/28/16.
  • Drafted by Washington 2012 (1-16) (Harvard-Westlake HS, Studio City, Calif.). $2.925M signing bonus ($2.125M slot).

2019 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET

90o 25.7 0 0 31 31 166.2 138 67 146 19 .258 1.24 3.73 4.09 -15.0 -1.6
80o 23.8 0 0 30 30 160.1 140 68 141 20 .269 1.30 4.07 4.46 -20.7 -2.2
70o 22.5 0 0 29 29 155.8 142 69 137 20 .276 1.35 4.32 4.73 -24.6 -2.7
60o 21.4 0 0 28 28 152.1 143 70 134 20 .282 1.40 4.53 4.96 -27.7 -3.0
50o 20.4 0 0 28 28 148.7 144 70 131 20 .288 1.44 4.74 5.18 -30.6 -3.3
40o 19.4 0 0 27 27 145.4 145 71 128 20 .294 1.48 4.94 5.4 -33.3 -3.6
30o 18.4 0 0 26 26 141.9 146 71 125 21 .301 1.53 5.16 5.64 -36.1 -3.9
20o 17.2 0 0 26 26 137.8 147 72 121 21 .308 1.58 5.42 5.92 -39.1 -4.3
10o 15.5 0 0 25 25 132.2 148 72 116 21 .319 1.66 5.79 6.32 -43.1 -4.7
Weighted Mean20.5002828148.81437013120.2871.434.725.16-30.3-3.3

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BP Annual Player Comments

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BP Articles

Click here to see articles tagged with Lucas Giolito

BP Chats

2020-09-11 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thoughts on Wander Javier, what's his upside?
(Dusty from Colorado)
The year is 2025. He struggled for a while, but now Javier is in the majors, mashing and just giving pitchers fits. As Cleveland keeps tearing it down and reducing the payroll, the AL Central rivalry is between the Twins and White Sox. Chicago's pitching has really developed, and their ace isn't Lucas Giolito but someone who was good but also someone who wouldn't have expected to be a top 5 pitcher in baseball. But as successful as he is, he just can't get Javier out. In every series, whether it's home or away, Javier just pummels White Sox pitching and especially this guy. On the last day of the regular season, Javier hits three home runs off this pitcher, knocking him out of the game and sending the Twins to the playoffs for the third year in a row. As he walks of the mound, a dejected scrum of White Sox fans can't help but ask themselves if the Wanders will ever Cease. (Mike Gianella)
2019-06-14 14:00:00 (link to chat)Is Lucas Giolito an ace?
(Lex from Egypt)
No. Less than one half of one season of excellent performance doth not an ace make, or something. He's good though, or he has been good, and even if he reverts to replacement performance down the stretch this season will really be something impressive, and a good sign for him going forward. (Rob Arthur)
2019-05-20 12:00:00 (link to chat)Is Lucas Giolito for real?
(Kegin from Jacksonville)
Iím not getting sucked in again. Not for a good long while (Jeffrey Paternostro)
2019-02-25 16:00:00 (link to chat)I'm a White Sox fan. Was. I don't know anymore. Talk me off the ledge.
(Redacted from Redacted)
I totally get it after the tease of Machado (and I guess Harper to a lesser extent). But your pain is relative. I'm a Giants fan, I would trade my team for yours in 2019. I get to watch 30-something players break down while the roster is spackled with the likes of Cameron Maybin and Yangervis Solarte. But back to the White Sox. There's still hope for Yoan Moncada, eventually you'll have Michael Kopech, maybe Lucas Giolito comes good, and Luis Robert is coming down the pike. And your team doesn't hate BP. (Jon Hegglund)
2018-12-12 17:00:00 (link to chat)I think this is the year Lucas Giolito becomes the pitcher we all thought he would be. Agree or disagree?
(Billy from St. Charles)
I don't see it. Showed some flashes last year, but still very inconsistent. I predict a future in the bullpen for him at some point. (Mike Gianella)
2018-11-30 13:00:00 (link to chat)What kind of FV would you give Lucas Giolito and Dylan Bundy today? If you had to put them on a present day top 100, where would they be, or would they not make it?
(Wayne from Chestershire)
FV kind of breaks down when we have actual major league performance and projections to look at, but I'd have Bundy as a fringe 4th going forward, so like a 45/50 and Giolito, I mean mavaaaaaaan. Let him sort it out in relief I guess, 4/middle reliever. Neither of those are really top 101 grades. Also, they are pitchers, man. (Jeffrey Paternostro)
2018-09-12 13:00:00 (link to chat)Does Lucas Giolito break out next year?
(Ned from Nabisco)
I was hoping he'd break out this year. I think he'll be better, but a #3 upside might be his new ceiling. (Mark Barry)
2018-09-12 13:00:00 (link to chat)Who has a better career? Mike Soroka or Lucas Giolito?
(Jason from St. Charles)
I'll take Giolito, just based on Soroka's injury history. And his current 60-day-DL status. (Mark Barry)
2018-08-29 19:00:00 (link to chat)Lucas Giolito or Mike Soroka long term? And is this the slam dunk it seemed to be in May?
(Jason from St. Charles)
This is a hard question to answer. Soroka is done for the season and Giolito is surging. I'm leaning Giolito for now because his stuff is back and he's getting good results with it (and I still can't ignore his pedigree). (Eddy Almaguer)
2018-07-30 23:00:00 (link to chat)What happened to Lucas Giolito? I think a lot of expectations were tempered, but how did his numbers fall THIS much?
(Ron from Texarkana)
Well, easiest answer is that Tommy John surgery is (still) a helluva drug. But beyond that, they've tried to overhaul his arm path and slot over the past couple months - he's throwing now from about a half a foot north of where he was at the start of the year, for example, and when you try to make those kinds of fairly dramatic adjustments on the fly against major league hitters sometimes you get your lunch money taken. It's generally just been a bumpy road back from Tommy John for him from the jump, and that does happen sometimes, unfortunately. The elite velo never came back, and both his heater variants lack wiggle. And when you combine unremarkable velo with below-average movement, sprinkle in poor command and stagnant secondaries that don't draw out enough whiffs to offset things...welp, that's how mommies and daddies make 7.66 DRAs. (Wilson Karaman)
2018-05-25 12:15:00 (link to chat)What the heck happened to Lucas Giolito?
(Ned from Florida)
Last year was smoke and mirrors. The stuff hasn't been there for a while now, and never got back to what it was pre-surgery. BP's reports in the minors built in some of the pre-surgery quality with the assumption he could get back there, because it looked like that's where it was progressing, but he never quite did. The curveball still looked nasty and was getting swings and misses in Double-A when I saw him, but the fastball was topping out at 94 even then, and he was spiking the curveball when getting those whiffs, without locating in the zone. It can be dangerous to make firm judgments off of one look like that, but looking back the lack of being able to throw the breaker consistently for strikes should have been a tip off, and the fastball was no longer elite enough to miss bats consistently at the highest level. You have to have something to keep hitters honest with, and right now he doesn't. (Craig Goldstein)
2017-07-12 13:00:00 (link to chat)Any updates on Lucas Giolito? He's put up some pretty awesome starts of late but I've been stuck scouring Twitter for radar readings and the like.
(Rick from South Side)
Giolito has been better of late. Even coming into the season the front office was pretty candid about the extent they were resetting his mechanics and it sounded like it would be a full-year project. Sadly, it seems like his velo is permanently going to be in the 91-95 band rather than the 94-99 it was years ago. That means his success is going to hinge almost entirely on his command of his fastball and curve.

To that end, though, I haven't heard anything like, "Oh he's figured out his command now." I feel like that has been to be something he shows for an extended period of time before we get excited again. Another guy we discussed with Craig on our podcast! (Nick Schaefer)
2017-05-15 17:00:00 (link to chat)Is Lucas Giolito ever going to be an ace, or has that ship sailed? Is he Mark Appel? Or is he a decent #3 or #4 starter?
(eddiecomic from NY)
He could be, but it looks like a long shot to me now. I see him as a #4 with perhaps the possibility that he's a good relief arm instead. (Mike Gianella)
2017-04-05 23:00:00 (link to chat)20-team dynasty league: I'm arguably the best team n the league, but with no farm system prospects are eating at my bench. A rebuilding team sent me an offer: I give Eloy Jimenez, Lucas Giolito, and Mitch Keller, I get back Max Scherzer or Yu Darvish. If it pus me over the top, I have to do it, right? Would you take Max or Yu?
(AJ from Phoenix)
I'd probably do that deal in that context, yeah. First I'd try to counter for a deal that Eloy isn't in - see if you can replace him with a less-important-to-you MLB bat? I know he's on the DL in A ball, but man do I like that kid's swing almost as much as I don't like the thought of moving him (but yes, you probably do that deal if you're all-in, titles in a 20-teamer don't happen that often). I think I narrowly prefer Scherzer.

BTW, just saw the Lindor GS, and I'd like formally submit legislation to add him to my security council of players where I will pause whatever I'm doing to watch an at-bat. (Wilson Karaman)
2017-04-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)What do you see from Lucas Giolito this year?
(Buddy from Peoria, IL)
I expect him to be in the White Sox rotation at some point this season. Beyond that, you're guess is as good as mine. During his time in Triple A last season, he looked better as the season went on. I'd expect a similar pattern with his time at the major league level. His rough first outing for Charlotte probably didn't do much to diminish concerns about him. It's looking more and more likely like he'll settle into the role of a mid-rotation starter (if the control gets figured out). Worst case scenario Giolito has the stuff to be a solid bullpen piece in the future. (Eric Roseberry)
2017-04-11 19:00:00 (link to chat)With the White Sox basically rebuilding Lucas Giolito what are your expectations for his 2017?
(Kevin from Chicago)
Hahn certainly made it sound like they were overhauling him from the ground up. If he doesn't make the rotation in September, I suspect something has gone horribly wrong, but there's reason to let him dominate AAA for a while even if it goes well, and there are potentially several dudes ahead of him in line in the AAA rotation. (Nick Schaefer)
2017-03-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)Lucas Giolito didn't get a swinging strike and his fastball was sitting 92 in his most recent outing. What in the world is going on?
(Bob G. from D.C. )
I briefly considered just reprinting my Giolito spiel in front of the White Sox list as well, but that might have been a bit too lazy even for me. Beats me, but this happens sometime even outside an obvious injury. Pitchers, man. And really Giolito wasn't THAT much better a prospect as an amateur or minor leaguer than Archie Bradley, just played in affiliates closer to the critical mass of public evaluators. Pitchers, man.

(It's also March 17th and he could show up fine in Charlotte in three weeks) (Jeffrey Paternostro)
2017-03-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)Who would you rather roster, Anderson Espinoza or Lucas Giolito? Giolito has really lost his luster. Can ChiW turn him around?
(Johnny Walker Black from NJ)
This is well within the fudge factor for me, but Don Cooper has worked miracles with less, and the lead time with Espinoza may be significant and we could be having this same conversation about him in 2019. (Jeffrey Paternostro)
2017-01-06 13:00:00 (link to chat)hi jeff, 2 questions for you... 1)Lucas Giolito or Gleyber Torres, who you take first and why? what will their numbers look like once they hit the bigs? 2)Zach Collins of the CWS, is he actually that good or will he end up being a backup catcher or transform to 1b? what you think he can do at the major league level? thanks
(troykocur from Grand Coulee, Saskatchewan, Canada)
1. Close enough here I might take the bat? There's a lot of volatility around Giolito right now, though I think a change of scenery could help.
2. It is way more likely he is a 1B than backup C. I think he probably has to catch to have a real major league career, but the bat is legit so (Jeffrey Paternostro)
2016-08-18 13:00:00 (link to chat)Does Lucas Giolito get called back up in September? Thanks
(Matt from Buffalo)
I don't know for sure, but I'd be surprised if he's thrown his last big league pitch in 2016. He was outstanding last night, by the way. (Christopher Crawford)
2016-06-09 19:00:00 (link to chat)Cal Quantrill? Seems like a reach no?
(Peter from SD)
Not really. The Padres must be comfortable with the medicals and are betting on the stuff returning. Could be an under slot agreement here as well with the two remaining picks this round. - James Fisher One thing to consider, the recent successes of Jeff Hoffman and Lucas Giolito since they have come off TJ I think played into this. Both of those players could have been 1-1 guys, but fell because of those TJ and health concerns. I think if you could go back to those drafts, those two players would've gone much much higher. -SG (Live Draft Chat)
2016-06-13 23:00:00 (link to chat)Sonny Gray or Lucas Giolito in dynasty format? How close is it?
(Doug from Miami)
I'd want Giolito. He's been tinkering with his delivery this spring, but don't let the *just ok* numbers fool you. It's not a blowout, and Gray's appears to be actively trying to adjust away from his four-seam and change over his past couple starts. That might work, it might not.

Early John Holt and one of my favorite riddims. Yes, have some.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jx85wGIuCcU (Wilson Karaman)
2016-06-21 20:00:00 (link to chat)Cody Reed (the Reds one) was just promoted & made his debut. Seemed like an OK start but decent amount of K's so what do you think we should expect going forward this year & into the future? Ceiling #2 fantasy starter?
(David from Atlantis)
I think Reed's ceiling is a number 1 fantasy starter, but like most pitchers with that ceiling, he's unlikely to reach it. I like him. He's a big lefty who throws really hard and has a potentially plus slider. If he can keeps the walks down and maybe develop a third pitch to use against righties, he could really be something.

I actually saw him pitch last year in Wilmington against Lucas Giolito. Like all of the scouts sitting around me, I was there to see Giolito, but by the third inning, I was wondering who this guy pitching for the Blue Rocks was. I had never heard of him, but he was consistently hitting 97s and 98s on the scout's guns and making hitters look silly with that slider. SUre enough, by the end of the year, he had gone from unknown to # 47 on the BP Top 101 Prospects list. (Scooter Hotz)
2016-05-12 13:00:00 (link to chat)What do you make of the struggles of Lucas Giolito early this season? Adjusting to the double A hitters?
(jdc1989 from MO)
Yeah, I think that's probably fair, that and he's just a little off with his command. Not a lot, but just a little. He's still showing the stuff that suggests he's the best pitching prospect in baseball. (Christopher Crawford)
2016-05-31 19:00:00 (link to chat)How far away is Lucas Giolito for the Nats? What does he need to accomplish before making the leap to the bigs?
(muwasser from Washington, DC)
Giolito is refining his command at this point and all signs point to a late season call up for the stretch run. You would like to see some more consistency with the breaking ball but when it's on it's one of the best pitches in the minor leagues. (James Fisher)
2016-04-28 13:00:00 (link to chat)I get not scouting the stat lines, but as the best pitching prospect in baseball, I can't help but want more Ks from Lucas Giolito. Is he known to be "working on something"? Do you think he has big leagueitis and is bored in the minors?
(Shawn from Office)
And speaking of which, yeah Giolito's season is a bit odd. He's never *really* dominated a full-season level to the same degree as some of the other top tier arms on our 101. You are hanging your hat statistically on a half season in the Carolina league. But as you said, don't scout the stats. More concerning to me is Adam McInturff's report from this month. He still struggles commanding the curve, and his and other reports have had the velo down a tick or two. Again, any number of things could be going on, and it is three starts in the EL in April. But it warrants further watching I think. Pitchers, man. (Jeffrey Paternostro)
2016-03-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)Using your incredibly crazy and awesome metrics, who do you feel will be the best new SP in MLB, this season?
(Ron from Texarkana)
I'm going to go with Lucas Giolito. I don't need metrics for that, to be fair. I've seen his curveball, via MiLB.tv, rip a hole in the fabric of time and space. (Harry Pavlidis)
2016-03-09 19:00:00 (link to chat)Please rank: Giolito, Urias, Snell, Manaea, A. Espinoza. Who will be up first? Thanks.
(CJ from OAK)
For just this year I'd go Lucas Giolito, Blake Snell, Julio Urias, Manaea and Espinoza. My guess is Snell is up first. (Mike Gianella)
2016-01-14 20:00:00 (link to chat)Working to ID 12 Keepers in 5x5. Last pitching slot comes down to 2 rookies, Giolito or Urias. Whomever I choice I can keep for 2 years without penalty except use up 1 roster spot...Thanks
(Littleron from WV)
If it's only two years I want Lucas Giolito, even though I think Julio Urias has the higher ceiling and would be the play in dynasty. (Mike Gianella)
2016-01-14 20:00:00 (link to chat)I have Lucas Giolito in contract year at $15 NL only league. Do I keep him at that price and only enjoy this partial year or buy him 1 extra year for $20,or 2 years at $25? Thank you!
(Dewey from Charleston)
What's your cap? In a $260 league that sounds like too much, I'm risk averse, and I don't like the idea of risking $20 on a pitcher who hasn't even pitched in the majors. So I'd go $15 but that assumes a $260 cap. (Mike Gianella)
2015-12-15 14:00:00 (link to chat)Is Lucas Giolito going to be everything we all wanted Stephen Strasburg to be? Strasburg hasn't (yet) taken the leap to transcedent talent - could Giolito be that good?
(Shawn from Cubicle)
I feel like Strasburg has been a lot better than given credit for, but, yes. Giolito is the best pitching prospect in baseball. It isn't that close. (Christopher Crawford)
2015-11-18 13:00:00 (link to chat)Curious as to what minor league level GMs start forecasting MLB players. When a player produces at AA, do GMs no longer sign a free agent or a trade to block that player? At what level are they comfortable that a prospect can produce at the MLB level?
(Gary from Beantown)
Great question. Of course you have to keep in mind that GM's are still going by talent and not stats, but once they start producing at the upper-levels, I think they start taking these things into consideration. If I feel like Lucas Giolito is my best pitching prospect, and I see him dominating in Double-A, I take that into consideration for my rotation next year. Maybe that's Captain Obvious, but yeah, Double-A and up. (Christopher Crawford)
2015-09-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thanks for the chat! I have three candidates for long-term extensions next year in an NL-only, 12-team, 8-category Ultra league. How many years would you add (or not) to each? Kris Bryant, now 15 Corey Seager, now 5 Lucas Giolito, now 5
(gerrybraun from san diego)
So, I don't have a clue how extensions work in leagues but I'd want all three of these guys on my team for as long as possible. So...yes? (Christopher Crawford)
2015-07-23 17:00:00 (link to chat)Points league 20 keeper forever. Addison Russell or Lucas Giolito?
(Bob from Usa)
It's close because in real life I like Giolito's ceiling better but I still have to go with the hitter. Lean Russell. (Mike Gianella)
2015-07-30 13:00:00 (link to chat)Better MLB Career? Noah Syndergaard or Lucas Giolito?
(agetting from Queens)
Career? I'm going to go Giolito. I think this one is close, but Giolito seems, to me anyway, to have a better feel for the game which helps with the back half of a guys' career. Granted, things can change immensely in just a few months, so you can't go wrong with either.

If you ask PECOTA, I think it gives Syndergaard a huge (5+ wins) edge in WARP through 2024 though, and Nate Silver (not to mention BP's stat team who maintains the PECOTA system) is probably smarter than me! (Jeff Long)
2015-07-13 14:30:00 (link to chat)Scouts (and what we read) often grade on traditional tools. Arm, glove, hit, power, command, repeat delivery, etc. What guys in future game or in general have impressed you with other qualities: toughness, work ethic, baseball IQ, hand/eye, ability to take instruction into games, etc. often I'd bet these things are the difference in a guy reaching his potential. In Pittsburgh, Tabata would be an example of not having these qualities causing him to fail.
(davin from Pittsburgh)
Lucas Giolito is that guy for me. I love his mentality on the mound, and he gets "angry" in a good way when something doesn't go according to plan. He's also a smart player.
He looked pretty good in that first inning, touching 96 a few times. Giolito is going to be special. - Tucker Blair (Futures Game Chat)
2015-07-06 13:00:00 (link to chat)JP Crawford - the number 1 prospect to start next season?
(Jeremy from Philly)
Lucas Giolito isn't getting promoted anytime soon. Neither is Julio Urias. (Jeff Moore)
2015-06-18 13:00:00 (link to chat)Assuming that all of the prospects that have been called up this year exhaust their prospect status, what would be your updated top 5 at the moment?
(AA from FL)
I don't have a list because I'm not a prospect guy. If I did make one I'd probably have some combination of Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito, Corey Seager, Miguel Sano, and J.P. Crawford. (R.J. Anderson)
2015-06-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)top of your head...top 5 offensive and top 5 pitching prospects left in the minors?
(Brian from MI)
ahhh I won't be able to do that to any satisfaction. So I'll punt and just say guys like Reynaldo Lopez, Lucas Giolito and Alex Reyes are some of my favorite guys pitching in the minors. (Harry Pavlidis)
2015-06-22 13:00:00 (link to chat)Can Alex Reyes rival Lucas Giolito in terms of pure stuff? Can anyone in the minor leagues, when healthy, rival Giolito, or is he really in a league of his own?
(Mark from Virginia)
Yes, amazingly enough. I said after seeing him earlier this season that Reyes' has the best stuff of any pitcher in the minors besides Giolito. Now, his stuff isn't nearly close to being as refined as Giolito and he's not anywhere near that level of pitcher yet. But the fastball/curveball combination is as close as they'll come. I'll still take Giolito's because the fastball command is leaps and bounds better, but the easy velocity is just as impressive and the curveball needs new adjectives in order to properly describe it. (Jeff Moore)
2015-06-22 13:00:00 (link to chat)JP Crawford the top Prospect once Seager is called up?
(Greg from Chi Town)
Lucas Giolito says hello. (Jeff Moore)
2015-06-22 13:00:00 (link to chat)If he came up right now, based on his stuff, could Lucas Giolito be a top 100 SP?
(Shawn from Cubicle)
Oh my goodness yes. There are only 150 starting pitchers in the big leagues, so on pure stuff alone he'd certainly be better than 50 of them. Look at the crap the Phillies and Rockies are trotting out there. (Jeff Moore)
2015-05-26 19:00:00 (link to chat)If you had to choose one SP for long-term success, who would you want on your team: Carlos Rodon or Lucas Giolito?
(Matt from Virginia)
Giolito. Rodon is going to be really good, but I see him more as a solid #2 down the road. Giolito can be an ace with all sorts of #swagger (Mike Gianella)
2015-05-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hello, I'm in a fantasy keeper NL only 5x5 league. I have Lucas Giolito in the wings for a probable 2016 appearance. Are there any other NL pitching prospects would you consider with #1/ace labels?
(steelydanu from Burbank, CA)
Off the top of the head, Urias and Glasnow. (Christopher Crawford)
2015-05-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)In my Yahoo league I am building for next year and thereafter. My roster is Russell Martin, Kendrys Morales, Josh Harrison, Brock Holt, Brett Gardner, Dexter Fowler, Gregory Polanco, Coco Crisp, Carlos Ruiz, Travis Snider, Kyle (and Corey) Seager, Jason Heyward, Carlos Correa, Desmond Jennings, Javier Baez, Matt Harvey, Carlos Martinez, Jimmy Nelson, Edinson Volquez, Jonathan Paplebon, Chris Heston, Noah Syndergaard, Lucas Giolito, Julio Urias, Jose Berrios, Matt Cain and Sean Doolittle. 8 keepers allowed. Comments? Suggestions?
(TimLandry from Montreal Quebec Canada)
Keep Matt Harvey eight times. (Christopher Crawford)
2015-04-30 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hello, I have Lucas Giolito on my Minor roster. I have not heard anything on him in terms of making starts this year. Is WAS really being that conservative with him?
(steelydanu from Los Angeles)
he's in extended ST, he'll be up in full season ball this upcoming week, per reports from MASN. (Harry Pavlidis)
2015-05-05 15:00:00 (link to chat)Hi Nick, Are there any pitchers in the minors who project to be true #1 starters?
(Cal Guy from Cal)
Hi, sure there are. Lucas Giolito and Dylan Bundy are easy choices and I'd also include Julio Urias from the Dodgers system, though some people might disagree with me there. (Nick Shlain)
2015-04-16 17:00:00 (link to chat)Both short-term and long-term, who would be the better starter to own- Carlos Rodon or Lucas Giolito?
(Ron from Texarkana)
Hmmm. I'd lean Rodon, although Giolito seems like the guy with the higher floor. I just dig that Rodon ceiling, and it's not hard to see him as a Top 10 guy when he breaks. (Mike Gianella)
2015-04-29 20:00:00 (link to chat)Hi, I own Lucas Giolito on my fantasy minor league roster and I have not heard any information as to if/when he starts pitching this year. Would you have any info??
(steelydanu from Los Angeles)
Nothing has been formally announced yet, but I'd expect to see Giolito hit an affiliate (likely Potomac) within the next couple of weeks. He's must watch TV wherever he is. (Bret Sayre)
2015-04-13 15:00:00 (link to chat)Hi Sahadev, Who would you rather have for an entire career, a healthy Lucas Giolito or a healthy Jeff Hoffman?
(Cal Guy from C)
Giolito. We know what he's like after his return from surgery, and that's pretty damn special. Hoffman can be great, from what I've heard, but there are those who are convinced Giolito is destined to be a Cy contender year in and year out. (Sahadev Sharma)
2015-02-04 19:00:00 (link to chat)If Lucas Giolito absolutely blows away the competition in the minors this year, what are the chances he finds himself in the mix for a rotation spot with the Nats next season? They have several SP on the final year of their deals.
(Chad from OKC)
He's a 20 year old who has 136 career low minors innings and a gigantic ceiling. I don't see the rush. They can manage with their myriad of internal candidates. (Jordan Gorosh)
2015-01-15 18:00:00 (link to chat)Better Curveball: Lucas Giolito or a healthy Jeff Hoffman?
(Dylan from RI)
Give me Giolito. Complete filth. (Mark Anderson)
2014-12-16 19:00:00 (link to chat)Hi Chris, Let's give Lucas Giolito a grade of 100 as a pitching prospect. Does anyone rate higher or if not, how closely would the next few prospects rate compared to Giolito?
(Cal Guy from Cal)
Giolito definitely has the highest upside of any pitcher in the minors. He can round into a true force to be reckoned with. A power pitcher with both the stuff and mentality to make the elusive "no. 1" tag a reality. I wouldn't have anyone higher, but arms like Syndergaard, Urias, Bundy, Gray, etc. aren't too far behind when factoring everything in. (Top 10s Chat With Chris Mellen)
2015-01-21 15:00:00 (link to chat)From what you've seen, has Lucas Giolito improved upon his near 20-grade momentum or is it still near the bottom of the scale?
(Shawnykid23 from CT)
Yes! I was very pleased with what I saw from Giolito in 2014, specifically with his improved momentum. I wrote about it here: (Doug Thorburn)
2015-01-21 15:00:00 (link to chat)In most articles I have read, it dounded like Lucas Giolito had above average mechanics but was near-glacial in his time to the plate. Did he make any improvement on that this season? What grade would you give him overall?
(Sara from Tacoma)
Please see above response.

It also makes me happy to hear that the "glacial" tag is catching on. (Doug Thorburn)
2015-01-05 15:00:00 (link to chat)Ignoring control and command, who has the best raw stuff in the minors? I would guess Lucas Giolito, but after seeing Kyle Crick has 4 potential plus pitches, he has to be close to the top, no?
(The Dude from Office)
I guess if we just ignore command and control then yes, Crick is in Giolito's class, but that's like saying I'd basically be Mike Trout if only I had more talent. Sure, Crick's arm is lightening, but there's a huge gap between where he is right now and where he'll need to be in order to be a starter. His control is getting worse and he can't even stay in the game long enough to throw 100 innings in a season because of how many pitches he throws. (Jeff Moore)
2015-01-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)Lucas Giolito. ETA of June 2017?
(Sara from Tacoma)
I think 2017 is what Mellen hung on him in our write-up. That seems reasonable, though end of 2016 isn't out of the question given quality of stuff. (NL West Top 10s With Nick Faleris)
2014-11-04 18:00:00 (link to chat)Is next year the year Lucas Giolito take off?
(Mike from Utica)
I would argue Giolito has already taken off and the 2015 season will represent something more than that where Giolito announces to the world that he may be the best prospect in baseball. (Mark Anderson)
2014-10-09 15:00:00 (link to chat)Predict the MLB debuts of (1) Lucas Giolito; (2) Carlos Correa; and (3) Carlos Rodon. Also, comment on whose 2015 MLB debut excites you most.
(RatedRookie from Atlanta)
Giolito- late 2016/early 2017. Correa- up in the air due to injury, but potential Sept 2015 or early 2016. Rodon- May/June of 2015. (Jordan Gorosh)
2014-09-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)My league is cutting our farm system down from 5 to 2 (don't ask...) Addison Russell is 1 keeper for sure, would you keep Lucas Giolito or Archie Bradley in the other spot?
(Shawnykid23 from CT)
I'd find a new league. Who has TWO spots. That seems cruel. Honestly I'm generally in favor of taking the closer to the majors prospects but the recent reports on Bradley haven't been overwhelmingly positive. I don't always worry about negative reactions (see: Syndergaard this year) but I am a bit concerned about Bradley. I think it's him by a hair, right now, but by mid-season next year I probably have a different answer. (Craig Goldstein)
2014-08-29 12:00:00 (link to chat)The Nats shut Lucas Giolito down after 98IP this season (similar to their handling of Strasburg et al.) How many innings and at what level will he conclude his 2015 season?
(RatedRookie from Atlanta)
I know some teams like to use the 10 percent rule. I don't know offhand if the Nats are one of those teams, but ~110 innings between Potomac/Harrisburg? (R.J. Anderson)
2014-08-06 16:30:00 (link to chat)Lucas Giolito - Buy or Sell?
(Chris from Washington DC)
Neither. Human slavery is a black mark on world history, but yes, Lucas Giolito is really really really really good. (Cespedes Family BBQ)
2014-08-06 16:30:00 (link to chat)What brand of adult diaper do you recommend geared more toward comfort than functionality when viewing Lucas Giolito for the first time in person?
(Tomsegal from NYC)
We haven't been adults long enough to know anything about adult diapers. This is probably a better question for Jason Parks. (Cespedes Family BBQ)
2014-08-19 14:00:00 (link to chat)At this time next year is the Lucas Giolito hype train (rightfully) out of control?
(Shawnykid23 from CT)
I will be driving this off of the rails. Giolito is the best arm in the minors. (CJ Wittmann)
2014-08-08 13:00:00 (link to chat)I'm in a 12 team keeper league. each team gets to keep 7 players for next season. who do you think i should keep from this list: George Springer, Bryce Harper, Chris Sale, Justin Upton, Byron Buxton, Addison Russell, Taijuan Walker, Lucas Giolito, Francisco Lindor, Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausmann, Carlos Correa, Miguel Sano, Zach Wheeler. Thanks.
(childgrambino from Richmond, VA)
Harper, Sale, Upton, Walker, Gausman, Wheeler and Springer. 12 team leagues, you keep guys who are contributing. Having this many prospects in this shallow a league is bananas. Drop a bunch. (Craig Goldstein)
2014-08-08 13:00:00 (link to chat)One waiver transaction left in a keep-forever, 16-keeper league and looking to acquire one more SP/SP prospect: Lucas Giolito, Archie Bradley, Dylan Bundy, or deGrom.
(RatedRookie from Atlanta)
Giolito (Craig Goldstein)
2014-07-31 19:30:00 (link to chat)Please rank these pitchers in terms of best fantasy career prospects: Taijuan Walker, C.J. Edwards, Lucas Giolito, Hunter Harvey, James Paxton, Kohl Stewart, Carlos Rodon. Thanks.
(graham from Richmond, VA)
Hmm. Let's go Walker, Rodon, Giolito, Harvey, Stewart, Paxton, Edwards (Ben Carsley)
2014-07-24 19:00:00 (link to chat)Does Lucas Giolito already having gone through TJS scare you a bit? Can he still be a top of the rotation guy in say, 6-7 years, or does the surgery limit his MLB potential?
(Ron from Texarkana)
Oh he's scary as hell. The lofty heights his stock has reached stand atop a precipitous pedestal that can be toppled at any time. There's a lot of questions he has to answer in the coming years and he is very, very far away. I think 6-7 years is a responsible time frame, and I think the surgery doesn't quite limit his potential, but there's risk. (Mauricio Rubio)
2014-07-22 15:00:00 (link to chat)Who threw the best breaking ball you've seen all year?
(Fart Garfunkel from Poopsylvania)
I was sitting on the side for the futures game, but this guy Lucas Giolito has a pretty good one. Hunter Harvey's had big time depth.

Full game observance: Jake Thompson's SL is really nasty. Alex Reyes' flashed 6+. (Jordan Gorosh)
2014-07-07 11:00:00 (link to chat)Is there a good reason to keep Lucas Giolito in Low A any longer?
(newsense from DC)
I would keep him there all season. Training wheels off next year. (Jason Parks on the Top 50)
2014-06-26 14:00:00 (link to chat)harvey hunter vs lucas giolito < who has higher upside and why? thanks
(joe from baltimore)
Lucas Giolito because he's a damn beast. I'm unsure if I can use stronger language than that on BP, so I'll stray away from it. But he's a bad mf-er. When scouts say you have the potential to be a legitimate ace, that's massive. He could develop into a top-5 starter in the bigs if everything goes well. I can't say the same about Harvey. (J.P. Breen)
2014-06-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)Everything I read about Lucas Giolito makes him seem like the next Nolan Ryan. I know the risk is high with TJ on the resume, but if it all clicks, how high is this ceiling really? Are there any current comps or is his ceiling higher than what we're seeing in the big leagues right now?
(Steve from Los Angeles)
I've had a scout tell me that Giolito's floor is out of baseball in five years due to arm problems, and his ceiling is Cooperstown. Do with that what you will. (Jordan Gorosh)
2014-05-13 11:00:00 (link to chat)Lucas Giolito. Barring setbacks (read: injuries), it's looking like he's living up to his no-shit 1:1 caliber ceiling, no?
(AJ from Phoenix)
It's possible. That's a lofty ceiling, but he has all the ingredients to make it happen if he can refine and execute. (Jason Parks)
2014-04-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)Are you concerned at all about Lucas Giolito's mechanics (mainly momentum) keeping him from reaching his ace ceiling?
(Shawnykid23 from CT)
That is exactly my trepidation. His mechanics are pretty solid outside of the ridiculously slow pace to the plate, and his torque is insane. Therein lies the concern, as he is heavily relying on his upper-half and brute arm strength to create power, and the slow delivery opens up a wide window for timing errors - he will also need a very different pace and timing pattern from the stretch, will throws a wrinkle in his development. He might have the functional strength and flexibility to endure despite the risk factors, and his stuff is so sick that I think that he will be successful regardless, but I think that he will need to make some adjustments in order to hit his theoretical ceiling. Keep in mind that said ceiling is in the stratosphere. (Doug Thorburn)
2014-03-03 13:00:00 (link to chat)If Lucas Giolito blows hitters away in Low/High A (which seems likely), couldn't he hit AA before an innings limit this year, and then be up in the MLB at the end of 2015?
(Shawnykid23 from CT)
I think its best if he stays in Low-A for the full-season. This is a winning lottery ticket, so just let him ease into the innings at the full-season level and work on his fastball command. In 2015, take off the training wheels and let him destroy the world at his own pace. (Jason Parks on the Completed Prospect Rankings)
2014-02-28 14:00:00 (link to chat)Who are some minor league arms with fastballs too good to ignore...like Robert Stephenson?
(Chris from Baltimore)
Jonathan Gray, Yordano Ventura, Lucas Giolito, Noah Syndergaard, Alex Meyer ... I am big on Kyle Zimmer's fastball, which only loses deception when he ratchets down the momentum in his delivery, resulting in lesser depth at release point and poor command. It's an 8 when he lines up the gears. (Doug Thorburn)
2014-02-28 14:00:00 (link to chat)What's a reasonable ETA for Lucas Giolito assuming he has no setbacks?
(guest from chicago)
Prof Parks and crew put 2016 on his ETA, so that's as good a bet as any. But there are so many variables here that really anything can happen, and we just don't have enough information from in-game performance to understand where he is and what he needs to do in order to ascend to the highest level. (Doug Thorburn)
2014-02-18 14:00:00 (link to chat)If you were to guess who the top position player prospect and top pitching prospect are a year from now, who would you pick?
(nubber from tx)
Byron Buxton and Lucas Giolito. The dream is real. (Ronit Shah)
2014-02-06 13:00:00 (link to chat)Lucas Giolito have a chance to make a start in the majors in 2015?
(StrayMWBL from Detroit)
yea, I'd say so. But not even a 50/50 chance--that outlook could get rosier once he finishes a full season of pro ball (Harry Pavlidis)
2014-02-03 13:00:00 (link to chat)Will Lucas Giolito reach Washington sometime in 2015 ?
(StrayMWBL from Detroit)
I think that's too aggressive. 2017 is what Parks threw on him way back in 2013, I can see that maybe moving up a year but 2015 is hard to see, I think. (Mauricio Rubio)
2014-02-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)Is Lucas Giolito being talked about enough? This is a guy who could have two elite pitches. How many pitchers in the the majors can even boast that?
(Shawn from CT)
He is in the (hypothetical) BP hallways. We love him here. If there wasn't the injury history, he'd be a no-doubter, but frankly, TJ doesn't scare me the way it once did, once the player is back healthy and throwing. (Jeff Moore)
2014-02-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)Who would you rather own in a Dynasty League, Lucas Giolito or Clint Frazier? Who do you think reaches the bigs first?
(Guest from my cubicle)
I could see Giolito moving fast once he hits full-season ball, but both are still too far away to put that exact of a timetable on them. I'd take Giolito though for the upside. (Jeff Moore)
2014-01-21 18:00:00 (link to chat)At the 1-3 pick in my dynasty draft, Buxton and one of A. Bradley and Tanaka are off he board. I'm looking at Baez, Giolito, Bryant, Correa, and J. Gray. Who do you take? Why? How would you rank them? (Reference: I pick 1-3, and 1-6 due to trades; one of the picks in between mine would be Abreu and one of Baez/Correa (in that order)). Thanks!
(AJ from Phoenix)
Hi AJ.

The order might be different from a pure prospect perspective, but I'd go Javier Baez, Carlos Correa, Kris Bryant, Jonathan Gray, and Lucas Giolito. While Correa could wind up being a better baseball player than Baez, Baez's power tool is ridiculous and from a purely offensive standpoint (read fantasy) he has the higher ceiling. Correa's pretty damn good too, though, and I anticipate a power spike this year in the minors. His raw numbers don't look great, but he was an 18-year-old at Quad Cities. I'm impressed. Bryant's great too, but you're asking me to rank him against two amazing prospects. Gray and Giolito go behind the hitters just because I have a bias toward hitters when it comes to prospects in fantasy. I'll go Gray because Giolito had the TJ. He should be fine, and it's entirely possible that I'll flip these two if someone on BP's great scouting team comes back with a positive review on him in spring training. (Mike Gianella)
2014-01-17 10:00:00 (link to chat)Are you as high on Lucas Giolito as others?
(Sagar from Chicago)
I'm not sure. (Jason Parks)
2014-01-06 13:00:00 (link to chat)Jonathan Gray or Lucas Giolito - who has the better career?
(Sagar from Chicago)
Giolito. (Jeff Moore)
2014-01-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)I have 3 top picks in the 1st round of my upcoming draft. In a vaccum, which 3 would you take for a 18 keeper league and in which order? Tanaka, Lucas Giolito, Clint Frazier, Jonathan Gray, Jose Abreu, Rougund Odor, Rymer Lirano, or Mark Appel?
(vegetto712 from Florida)
From a prospect perspective, your top three there are Giolito, Gray and Appel. (Mark Anderson)
2014-01-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)With my first round pick in our prospect draft, I'm eying a pitcher. Archie Bradley, Masahiro Tanaka, Jonathan Gray, Mark Appel, Noah Syndergaard, Lucas Giolito, and Robert Stephenson are all still on the board. Which 2 or 3 are on your shortlist, and who do you pick & why? Thanks for the chat!
(Sara from Tacoma)
Oh man that's fun agonizing at the same time. Bradley/Giolito are my top two. Tanaka is probably my third because he'll pitch in the majors so soon. It depends on your team's timetable. If you're contending sooner, Bradley. If you can wait (because of depth or because you're bad) go with Giolito. (Craig Goldstein)
2013-12-20 14:00:00 (link to chat)What are your views on Lucas Giolito? Can he be better than Stephen Strasburg?
(Mlbeastmode from St. Louis)
The hype on Giolito is skyrocketing right now, but I am not yet on board, and he has a long way to go before gaining Strasburg comps. Don't get me wrong, I dig the stuff, but he has an extremely slow delivery into foot strike, after which he just explodes with unheard-of ferocity. I don't think that he uses his lower half well enough to maintain efficiency and high workloads at the highest level, and the short-ish stride is also working against him.

On the jukebox: Lagwagon, "Bury the Hatchet" (Doug Thorburn)
2013-11-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)Ignoring injury risk and proximity to minors,does Lucas Giolito have the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the minors?
(Shawnykid23 from CT)
Yes. No doubt. (Jason Parks)
2013-11-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)Are Archie Bradley and Lucas Giolito two of the top minor league pitchers from a potential standpoint?
(Chopper from Indy)
Both have tremendous ceilings. Giolito is a ways off and Bradley did well for a 20 year old in AA but needs to take a step forward to stay on the fast track. (Harry Pavlidis)
2013-11-19 13:00:00 (link to chat)Ignoring risk and proximity to majors, does Lucas Giolito have the highest ceiling of any minor league pitcher? If not him, who would it be?
(The Dude from Cubicle)
Yes. No one else can touch his upside. (Bret Sayre)
2013-11-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Mark, in you opinion, what level of contribution will Lucas Giolito, Mark Appel, Kyle Zimmer be making in 2015? Never too early to plan. Thanks.
(nictaclacta from Glendale)
Appel should be in the Astros rotation from day one. Zimmer has a good chance to spend half of that season in the big leagues. Giolito may not be there yet. (Mark Anderson)
2013-11-22 14:00:00 (link to chat)Lucas Giolito... just how high up is his ceiling?
(Sara from Tacoma)
I am lower on Giolito than most, but his raw stuff certainly raises his ceiling. His delivery is painfully slow, which limits release distance and opens up the window of timing for the rotational elements to fall out of sequence. His balance/posture are better than they were in high school, which is a big plus in general, but his curveball trajectory may have suffered as a result - it's another double-edged sword of pitching mechanics.

On the jukebox: Megadeth, "Hanger 18" (Doug Thorburn)
2013-10-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hoping you can answer my question. I know that when looking at these pitchers right now they are incomparable, however it looks like Lucas Giolito, Lance McCullers, Tyler Kolek, Kohl Stewart are top RH pitchers in next few years. Who has the higher ceiling, floor? Thanks!
(Jonathan Mayo from Pittsburgh)
Giolito has the highest ceiling; actually, you can argue that he might have one of the highest ceilings in the minors. After Giolito, give me Stewart. You can make a case that Stewart has the highest floor because of his body type and current polish. But McCullers' floor is a high-end bullpen arm, so don't sleep on him. People are mixed about McCullers' long-term role, with some projecting a #2 starter and others seeing a late-innings arm. Either way, there is impact there. (Jason Parks)
2013-09-04 13:00:00 (link to chat)Would you think I am crazy to say that Lucas Giolito is the 3rd best starting pitching prospect behind Bradley and Walker. I've saw Syndergaard, Taillon, and Giolito in person and he had the best present and future arsenal of the three.
(Mike from Utica, NY)
He has electric stuff; no doubt. But unless we are just ranking players based on pure ceiling, I don't see the case at this point to rank Giolito ahead of guys like Taillon or Syndergaard. He could (and should) get there, but let's take it easy and respect some of the developmental progress and production from the older cars before we start losing our virginity in the backseat of the new model. (Jason Parks)
2013-09-04 13:00:00 (link to chat)Is Lucas Giolito a top 5 pitching prospect this time next year?
(Liam from Dallas)
Very possible. Delivery isn't the cleanest thing on the planet, but the raw stuff is sex (Jason Parks)
2013-09-11 13:00:00 (link to chat)Lucas Giolito: Any concerns about his elbow now or is he right back on track to being a #1 starter?
(Chad from OKC)
Well, I wouldn't say any guy with Giolito's lack of experience is "on track to being a #1 starter" yet. He's a long way from reaching Verlander/Kershaw status. But on track to being an elite prospect? Sure. Reports were great and the velocity is already reaching elite levels. Even had a couple triple-digit velo whispers from scouts here and there (touching, not sitting). No-doubt candidate to bust out big in 2014. (Jason Cole)
2013-08-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Is Lucas Giolito one of the top 3 pitching prospects in baseball a year from now?
(Liam from Dallas)
I'll say that no, he's not. Has that kind of potential, but coming off the injury and in his first full season ball, we may not see a total breakout until 2015. (Jason Cole)
2013-08-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Who is your favorite starting pitcher prospect out of the group? (Most likely to stick at SP taken into account) Mike Foltynewicz, Tyler Glasnow, Eddie Butler, Aaron Sanchez, and Lucas Giolito?
(Fish72292 from New Hampshire)
That's a tough list, especially since we're comparing upper-level pitchers (Folty and Butler) with complex-league pitchers (Giolito). I like all of those guys. I'd probably go Butler though, because we're talking ceiling + probability of big leagues with the Double-A guy. Highest ceiling of the group? Probably Giolito. Which makes it a tough one to answer. (Jason Cole)
2013-08-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Have you seen/heard any on Lucas Giolito? Surface stats would appear to show that stuff is there but the command (usually last to come back (along with velo)) has yet to return? Still the vaulted ceiling?
(AJ from Phoenix)
Answer to the last question: yes, but it's not easy to accurately judge when a guy is just coming back like he is. I haven't heard anything too in-depth, but I did get an early report that said that he was already showing the serious velocity, and that's really all I needed to know at that point. His walk rate is down in the last few starts. Also keep in mind that this is basically Giolito's first actual pro experience, so there's also likely to be some growing pains there. But from everything I've heard, it has been positive and encouraging. (Jason Cole)
2013-07-29 11:00:00 (link to chat)Please rank in order of ceiling: Carlos Martinez, Kevin Gausman, Jameson Taillon, Robert Stephenson, Noah Syndergaard, Lucas Giolito.
(AJ from Phoenix)
On ceiling alone: Gausman, Giolito, Taillon, Syndergaard, Martinez, Stephenson. (Zach Mortimer)
2013-06-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)Are any of these arm prospects going to make an impact in 2 years for fantasy owners?: Roberto Osuna, Lucas Giolito, Heath Hembree, Matt Wisler, or Blake Snell?
(Hector from Santa Ana)
I'd bet on Wisler of that group. Hembree should be a major leaguer, but we'll see if he's doing anything of fantasy import. (Paul Sporer)
2013-05-16 13:00:00 (link to chat)When all is said and done, will Max Fried end up the better pitcher than Lucas Giolito?
(Asking For a Friend from Chicago)
Probably not. Giolito could be a dangerous individual. (Jason Parks)
2013-03-20 11:00:00 (link to chat)What do you think of Josh Willingham this year? Will he continue his success from last year or drop off severely? Is he worth giving up Lucas Giolito for in a long-term dynasty league?
(bdonenfeld from Laguna Beach, CA)
Career-highs almost across the board last year at the age of 33, with no meaningful changes in his metrics, in a great pitchers' park? Not a good bet to repeat. I'm not opposed to dealing Giolito if you think you can improve your chances of winning now by doing so, especially given the gap between what Giolito is now and what he may someday become, but try to aim higher than Willingham, at least to start out. (Cory Schwartz)
2013-03-12 13:00:00 (link to chat)Paul, In a dynasty league who would you target 1st between Lucas Giolito, David Dahl or Javier Baez ? Thanks
(Joey from Madison, WI)
Baez for me. Giolito intrigues me, but let's wait and see on him, so I'd even go Dahl over him for now. (Paul Sporer)
2013-03-12 13:00:00 (link to chat)Enjoying SP Guide--great material. 5x5 ten team dynasty: 15 keeper and 10 minors. Spent couple years prospecting: who are the gold nuggets and who are the fool's gold? Jose Fernandez, Jameson Taillon, Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman, Kyle Zimmer, Max Fried, Lucas Giolito. Thank you
(nictaclacta from phoenix)
You've got lots of potential gold. If I **knew** who was fool's gold out of that, I'd have a much different job. I can tell you who I love from that group and it's Fernandez. I've always been a Taillon guy. Very excited to see full seasons out of Gausman and Zimmer. Btw, no mention of Bundy isn't because of any dislike, but rather bc he speaks for himself. He looks like a future star. (Paul Sporer)
2013-02-25 11:00:00 (link to chat)Does Lucas Giolito have Ace potential? If so, how scary of 1-2 punch would Strasburg & Giolito be?
(The Dude from DC)
He might. He has crazy upside. (Jason Parks on the Top 101 Prospects)
2013-02-26 14:00:00 (link to chat)In your opinion, looking way down the road, which of the BP 101 prospect hitters and pitchers end up having the best careers?
(cal guy from cal)
I'll go with Oscar Taveras and, taking a gamble on his recovery from elbow surgery, Lucas Giolito. (Daniel Rathman)
2013-01-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)How do you value someone like Lucas Giolito, who will have basically taken a year off when he comes back and was so raw? Do you dock him for time missed, or just delay his time to the majors?
(ttt from Manhattan)
This is a question each organization figures out using a different formula, and even then it varies player to player depending on body type, injury specifics, muscular/skeletal structure, track record and health history. For Giolito, he was a big body with big stuff (including two potential plus to plus-plus pitches) and even a little physical projection remaining. Considering where the Nats were drafting, it was a very big score landing such a high upside talent. From a pure ranking standpoint outside of the draft, if your any org other than Washington, you simply wait and see what he looks like before determining his value as a potential trade target. (Nick Faleris)

BP Roundtables

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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC

Lucas Giolito has thrown 14,040 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2016 and 2022, all of them occuring in Spring Training. In 2022, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (93mph), Change (81mph) and Slider (85mph). He also rarely throws a Curve (80mph).