Join J.P. for his inaugural chat at BP.
J.P. Breen: The U.S. moves to the Round of 16. It's been a good morning. The only thing that could make it better is a Baseball Prospectus chat.
Let's do this thing.
pmitchell60 (NOLA): Help on a trade proposed: Give George Springer for Dustin Pedroia? 10-team/12 Keeper Standard league....and generally what 2Bs would you target in dynasty leagues?
J.P. Breen: I'm not making this trade. I'm worried about Pedroia. He's on the wrong side of thirty, the homers have declined as his fly-ball rate has declined, and he's not running this year. I wouldn't feel comfortable giving up a top-tier talent like Springer for that profile.
In dynasty leagues, I'd be very interested in Jason Kipnis right now, as his price is likely lower than it should be.
Jeb (Iowa): How good can Tyler Glasnow be? He has been unreal the last couple of weeks.
J.P. Breen: He's obviously legit and could be a #2 starter if everything comes together with the command. As the BP scouting report read over the winter, his stuff is too overwhelming for hitters in High-A. It will be a big test to see if his control/command is good enough to handle the higher levels. He has the chance to be really, really good, though.
BeerTheDeer (Milwaukee): If the Brewers do make the move to bring up Jimmy Nelson and move Marco Estrada to the bullpen, they are going to need to clear room in the pen. Who are potential trade partners who could take one of their many pen lefties and what could we expect in return for say Tom Gorzelanny?
J.P. Breen: I'm not sure it's a foregone conclusion that Nelson replaces Estrada in the Brewers' bullpen, but Milwaukee is in a good spot w/ their plethora of lefties. Gorz, Will Smith, and Zach Duke can all handle righties and lefties -- with varying levels of dominance -- so they're not weighing their bullpen down w/ LOOGYs. If the Brewers do end up moving someone like Gorz, though, it would be for a lower-tier prospect or perhaps a utility guy. Nothing exciting.
Bob (Dallas): Has the long term outlook on Manny Machado changed? Is there still a future star in there? What's a peak slash line look like?
J.P. Breen: I still believe in Machado. He's not even 22 and has plenty of time to become an above-average force at third base. I'm perhaps not the best at projecting future slash lines, but I see seasons in which he hits .290-.300 with 20+ homers -- especially in that ballpark. It just may not happen for another couple seasons.
Brewmann04 (new york): Who is the top pitching Prospect behind Jimmy Nelson and the top Hitting prospect
J.P. Breen: I'm assuming this references the Brewers' minor-league system. The Brewers' top pitching prospect behind Nelson is Devin Williams, who could legitimately flirt with the Top 101 Prospects next winter. As far as position prospects are concerned, it's perhaps more difficult to pin that down. Tyrone Taylor and Orlando Arcia are guys who could be starters at the major-league level if the bats progress enough, but Monte Harrison might have something to say about that before the year is done. It's also been nice to see Clint Coulter rebound a bit.
Darius (Des Moines): What are the top three farm systems? Both depth and talent wise.
J.P. Breen: Woof. Tough question. I'm going to go with Chicago, Minnesota, Houston (in that order). I'm still considering Springer and Singleton as "prospects" of sorts because they're so fresh in the bigs.
Darius (Des Moines): What are the top three farm systems? Both depth and talent wise.
J.P. Breen: Aw man. I feel like I just answered this question...
Sweet Lou (Pittsburgh): Hi JP,
What would it take in prospects for the Pirates to pry David Price away? and do you see the Bucs pulling that trigger given their present place in the standings?
J.P. Breen: I don't see Pittsburgh making this move whatsoever, but they'd probably work something surrounding Glasnow and Josh Bell. I'm not even sure Tampa would want to make such a deal, as they're not close enough to the bigs. If I'm TB and Pittsburgh came calling, I'd demand Gregory Polanco and stick to it.
cxtorpey (Baltimore): Team is bombing...looking to upgrade my keepers in a 5x5 with 5 keepers. Currently have Bogaerts, Tulo, McCutchen, Cargo as definites; can keep either of hosmer/fielder/altuve. Should I upgrade and package for Chris Sale, or a better hitter?
J.P. Breen: Sorry to hear you've had a tough year. My TDGX team, run by our benevolent boss Bret, is going through the same deal. If you can acquire Sale, I'm all about that. He's one of the rare arms that can anchor a dynasty pitching staff.
Shawnykid23 (CT): Thanks for the chat JP! Better ROS at C-Brian McCann or Wilin Rosario?
J.P. Breen: Give me Wilin Rosario. He was a Top-5 fantasy catcher last year, and I'm still a believer.
Shawnykid23 (CT): Is it still worth stashing Oscar Taveras in a 10 tm re-draft, or is his only path to being called back-up an injury?
J.P. Breen: In a re-draft league that shallow, I'd move on from Taveras. You need impact, and I'm not sure Taveras is a lock to provide that this year. I adore Taveras. I think he shines next year, though.
Graham (Richmond, VA): Who are your personal top 5 prospects, based on potential production in 2015-17?
J.P. Breen: Great question. It's really difficult to question what Kris Bryant could bring to the table next year. He's been mashing and has overwhelmed the opposition. I'd probably go Baez, Bryant, Buxton, Correa, and Syndergaard. It's a very flexible list, obviously. I'm also not sure we should be ignoring what Archie Bradley and Dylan Bundy are capable of, though.
hamsterjockey (DC): Does Ben Zobrist get traded by the deadline and if he does, how does it impact his fantasy value?
J.P. Breen: I don't think he does. It's merely a gut feeling, but I think the Rays will move David Price and avoid moving anything else too big.
TheWildPitch (New York): Who is Jake Bauers and why is he tearing apart a league much older than him?
J.P. Breen: Jack Bauer will pretty much dominate whatever league in which he plays. Er, what? Jake Bauers. Right. Different guy. He's a 7th-round draft pick from a year ago, a high-school first baseman. I haven't seen him play, but he's reportedly a guy with an advanced approach and a good feel for hitting. However, he's limited to first base and doesn't have the power profile to carry first base. His advanced approach is currently on display in Low-A, though, and as an 18-year-old, that's legit.
Zeus (Greece): In a 5x5 roto league, what is the best strategy for moving up the ladder in WHIP?
J.P. Breen: In a simple sense, it's about acquiring better pitchers. If you're not able to acquire much via the trade market, though, you're wise to look at the reliever market and claim guys who pitch often and limit baserunners. Essentially, the second-tier relievers that everyone largely ignores because they don't accumulate saves. If you can, sacrifice those high-strikeout guys who have lofty WHIPs and acquire someone less exciting like Doug Fister, Tim Hudson, Jason Hammel, etc. The guys that people overlook because of the low Ks.
Tino (NY): What do you think about Joey Votto ROS?
J.P. Breen: As he's said himself, if he's healthy, he's among the top hitters in baseball. It's a question about his health going forward, in my mind, not his overall skill. If an owner is panicking, I'd be willing to acquire him.
Stephen (Jersey): Would you rather have Votto or VMart ROS?
J.P. Breen: The health puts a huge caveat here. I'm going to go with Votto, but fully recognize the possibility that his power doesn't fully show up over the summer. I'm nervous about the pick. I also don't like that V-Mart is almost solely a UTIL guy, which limits my roster flexibility. That's a pet peeve of mine when creating a roster.
Dru Hill (A Dragon): What are your thoughts on me?
J.P. Breen: Hey Craig. I feel like you're oft-forgotten, but for probably good reason. I'll put a solid 35 on you and continue on my way. I also consider it a significant strike against you that Sisqo became a thing because of you.
hamsterjockey (DC): Need a second baseman and steals. Would you do Votto for Gordon?
J.P. Breen: Nope. Not a chance. Gordon is essentially a platoon guy at second base. The steals are great and he's on the strong side of the platoon, but I'm not moving Votto for a guy who could eventually lose playing time to Alex Guerrero - ya know, once his ear fuses itself back together.
Badgernoonan (Chicago): How concerned should the Brewers be about Ryan Braun? He hasn't been bad, but he's looked really rough of late, he's been swinging at everything, and I'd wager that thumb is really bugging him. Would adding a decent backup corner OF help the Brewers more than most just for the ability to rest him more in the 2nd half?
J.P. Breen: In my opinion, Braun's thumb has been a bigger issue than the team is letting on. He's having huge troubles pulling the baseball and he's starting his swing earlier than normal to compensate. The concerning aspect is that the thumb issue doesn't project to get better throughout the year. Adding another corner outfield bat is probably wise. It doesn't need to be a stud, though. It could be a solid platoon OF who can handle right-handed pitching. Someone like a David DeJesus of Tampa might make sense.
Larry (Ca ): Keeper league: wheeler or odorizzi?
J.P. Breen: Wheeler. All day.
Ron (Milwaukee): Would you rather have Michael Gonzalez or Yuniesky Betancourt play at 1B?
J.P. Breen: Give me Yuni B. Look at it: http://onmilwaukee.com/images/articles/br/brewersyunibhitting/brewersyunibhitting_fullsize_story2.jpg?20130510101356
He was also hitting .141/.139/.155 in 18 games for Orix in Japan this year. I'm pretty sure he got sent down to the minors in Japan, too, which is hilarious.
Ryan (Glendale): Thanks for the chat! Any prospects with combined hit/power tools to dream on not named Taveras?
J.P. Breen: Plenty of them, Ryan! Kris Bryant is setting the minor leagues ablaze at the moment. If you want to dig a bit deeper, pay attention to what David Dahl is doing for Class-A Asheville in the Rockies org. He'll be making some noise on midseason prospect lists.
Pat (Florida): What's going on with Pedro Alvarez? K/BB rates are at their best, but ISO is down and BABIP is still lowish. Is he having a down year? I can't tell...
J.P. Breen: He's not mashing righties as much as he was a year ago. From the dozen-or-so games I've watched of Alvarez this year, I think he's essentially trading contact for power. His contact rate and strikeout rate have improved, but he's sacrificed power in the process. In some ways, I think he's still learning and adjusting to big-league pitching.
Neugebauer (Mishicot, WI): Has the Brewers minor league development been undervalued by the prospect media industry in recent years? I find it hard to believe the contributions by Davis, Gennett, Peralta, Thornburg and Henderson over the past 1-2 years is not at least around league average in terms of player development (if not better).
J.P. Breen: I don't think so. Out of the guys you mentioned, where's the impact talent? Where are the guys that Milwaukee could build around for their future? Prospect ranking and prospect "hype" is all about finding impact talent and finding superstars. The Brewers have done a nice job developing guys into role players or average major leaguers, which is incredibly valuable, but the impact has been lacking. That's why their ranking has remained low.
That's also why the Brewers took Medeiros, Gatewood, and Harrison in the '14 Draft. They recognize that their impact core will be drying up over the next three-to-five years. They need to know where their next core will come from after Braun, Gomez, Lucroy, etc. age or move on in free agency. I think you've started to see the Brewers' organization prioritize impact ceiling, and they'll likely continue to do so in the future.
Mark (Phoenix): What's your take on Jake Lamb?
J.P. Breen: There are holes in the swing, and I'm not convinced he'll hit for a high average at the big-league level. The power is real, though. At some point, the consistent production matters, too. A guy who does nothing but hit, and hit for power, will get a chance at the big-league level. I'd just temper expectations a bit from his minor-league performance.
USA!!! (USA!!!): In a standard 10 team H2H dynasty league, would you deal Rizzo and Bryant for Harper? Have Belt and Hosmer too. No chance of winning this year. Been hesitant to accept the offer.
J.P. Breen: Nope, I wouldn't. Rizzo has finally taken a step forward, and Bryant is going to be an impact guy as soon as next year. I love Bryce Harper. Love him. However, he's shown some injury concerns and trading two potential studs for a slightly-better stud doesn't quite hit the mark for me.
USA!!! (USA!!!): In a 12 team standard roto dynasty league, would you trade Baez, Bauer, and Stroman for Longo and D. Gordon. Really need the SB's but already have A-Ram and Lawrie. Is Longo really worth all that?
J.P. Breen: Why don't you ask harder questions? Goodness. My immediate reaction is no, as I'm not sold that Dee Gordon is more than a platoon bat going forward. A productive one, to be sure, but still a platoon bat. However, I'm waffling a bit, as I think Bauer has huge question marks and is far from a sure thing. If you're "going for it" this year, I can see the move. I really can. Longo is a beast. It would just be hard to give up on Baez for me -- as previously stated, he's a top-5 fantasy prospect for me, and still should be for you.
TheWildPitch (New York): Trio of Brewers prospects looking good. Cravy, Williams, and Wagner. Any info on them?
J.P. Breen: Rocking more Brewers' prospect questions! Y'all know where my heart lies. Williams is the best prospect of the bunch. Potential back-end rotation guy, or even a set-up reliever. Tyler Wagner is a potential fifth starter if everything develops, but overall, unexciting. Cravy relies heavily on deception. Talking to a couple scouts, I haven't heard anyone who believes he's anything more than a potential middle reliever in the long run.
John (CT): Hunter Harvey has taken the prospect chatter by storm this year. He seems to have all the pitching tools, emotional maturity etc to be a top five frontline starter.
What's your take?
J.P. Breen: Love Hunter Harvey. The Orioles have a stellar trio in Gausman, Bundy, and Harvey. With Gausman in the big leagues, I still like Bundy more than Harvey. I think people will start to realize that as he works back from TJ surgery. Harvey is a potential stud, though. A 2/3 starter with maybe a bit more in the tank, if you dream.
childgrambino (Richmond, VA): Fantasy-wise, who do you like more: Mookie Betts or Arismendy Alcantara?
J.P. Breen: I'll take Alcantara, but I don't feel great about it. I think both have 20-steal potential, but I think Alcantara will hit for more power and is a better bet to play middle infield, which ups his fantasy value to me. Mookie Betts is obviously no joke, though. Can flat-out hit the baseball and has a great idea of what he's doing at the plate.
Tywin Lannister (The privy): Welcome! What are your thoughts on Jay Bruce going forward? Are his decreasing FB% and increasing GB% a blip on the radar or time to run away?
J.P. Breen: He's hitting .284/.341/.556 with a .896 OPS in the month of June. If he's available in your league, go get him before people start to notice.
hamsterjockey (DC): Who has the better career, Marcus Semien or Micah Johnson?
J.P. Breen: Blech. Real baseball? I guess, Semien. Fantasy baseball? Johnson. The steals will help him carry some value. Just wish he could hit.
Chris (Baltimore): Has Lewis Brinson made enough improvements to warrant consideration for the top 50? How does his ceiling compare with Dahl, Tapia, Frazier, etc?
J.P. Breen: Nah. Not for me, at least. Still has significant questions about his approach and how it will translate at the upper levels. He's a tick below guys like Dahl and Tapia for me. Frazier is a tick below that, and maybe Brinson fits there. I'm not sure.
Kevin (DC): Thanks for the chat! Did Swihart make the top 25? What type of offensive ceiling does he bring to the table? How does he stack up with Alfaro, G. Sanchez, and the other top catching prospects?
J.P. Breen: C'mon Kevin. You know I can't give away company secrets. I'll tell you this: the BP prospect team likes Swihart quite a bit. His offensive ceiling isn't nearly as high as Alfaro, but he's almost a sure bet to be an everyday catcher. Austin Hedges is still a guy to keep in that discussion, too.
Drew (Rochester): Was Rymer Liriano in the mix for top 50? Are you a believer in his power/speed combination?
J.P. Breen: I don't think so. Too many questions about the hit tool. I'm a believer in the power and the speed ... just worried the holes in his swing will limit how much he can access that power. Definitely has 20/20 potential at the big-league level if everything goes perfectly, though. Too many people forgot about him after he was out due to surgery last year.
Mark (WI): Keith Law just recently said that Scooter is a "utility/bench" player at best. Do you think Scooter can start full time down the road?
J.P. Breen: Yes, I do. There are mixed opinions on Scooter. Most everyone believes in the hit tool, but some question his ability to handle second base defensively in the long-term. I had a scout swear to me a couple years ago that Scooter would hit 12-to-15 homers a year once he got comfortable in the bigs. He's shown flashes of that power this year. The only concern I have with Scooter long-term is his ability to consistently handle lefties. If he can hold his own there, he can start everyday for Milwaukee.
Tim (Arkansas): Better Hall of Famer: Jack Morris or Zack Morris?
J.P. Breen: Dude. Are you just going to lob pitches over the plate so I can knock them over the park? Zack Morris. First ballot. Beautiful hair.
Chris (Baltimore): Is Trevor Story reestablishing himself as a top 100 prospect? He's hitting over .330 with a lot of extra base hits and 20 stolen bases. Will he be a top 5 shortstop prospect by the end of the year?
J.P. Breen: Not for me. I need to see it sustained for a longer period of time, and in particular, I need to see it happen after he reaches Double-A. Reports on his swing and approach from last year worries me. I want to see it work for a longer period of time and against more advanced pitching.
joe (baltimore): harvey hunter vs lucas giolito < who has higher upside and why? thanks
J.P. Breen: Lucas Giolito because he's a damn beast. I'm unsure if I can use stronger language than that on BP, so I'll stray away from it. But he's a bad mf-er. When scouts say you have the potential to be a legitimate ace, that's massive. He could develop into a top-5 starter in the bigs if everything goes well. I can't say the same about Harvey.
Josh (Virginia): Is Renato Nunez legit? He has been destroying the Cal League recently. Will he be top 100 by the end of the season?
J.P. Breen: There's legit power in the swing, but the approach isn't pretty. He's also limited defensively. I don't think he'll make the top-100 unless something huge happens from now until the end of the year.
Nathaniel (wisconsin): Percentage chance the Brewers find any improvement to make at the deadline?
J.P. Breen: 95%. Mark Attanasio will make sure the Brewers make a move, even if it's for a utility guy or a middle reliever. Something will happen.
Myrick (Charleston, SC): Everything you know about Jorge Polanco?
J.P. Breen: I'm not sure that's a question, but I'll accept the invitation to dance. I like Jorge Polanco. There's very little chance that he's up in the big leagues to stay this year, but he has a good approach at the plate and is likely to hit for a pretty good average at the big-league level. Little power, maybe will steal 15-to-20 bags in his best years, could be a solid defender up the middle. Good bet to eventually be a big leaguer. I know I just acquired him in my 20-team dynasty league. But, ya know, there are obvious limitations to his overall game.
WickedCurve26 (Atlanta, GA): Jorge Polanco just got called up. Worth dropping Nick Franklin for?
J.P. Breen: Depends on the type of league, I guess. Polanco almost certainly won't be up for long this year.
BigMac25 (Montreal): 20 team dynasty league and my only SS are Cozart and Rutledge. Should I trade Joc Pederson and Matt Joyce for Jean Segura?
J.P. Breen: No. I agree that shortstop is an issue on your roster, but Joc Pederson is too much for Segura. Segura will have the steals. He needs to prove he can actually keep the baseball off the ground, if he's going to be anything more than a slap hitter w/ a solid-average glove at shortstop. I thought he'd bounce back from his poor second half in 2013. I've been disappointed.
To be clear, I still like Segura well-enough in dynasty leagues. Pederson is just too much to give.
Mike (Minneapolis ): Thanks for the chat!! Do you think Oswaldo Arcia will ever solve major league pitching??
J.P. Breen: I adore Oswaldo Arcia. Yes. One of my personal favorites.
markwilkins07 (KC): What are the odds my royals will panic trade for a playoff spot this year? How bad do you think thats going to be?
J.P. Breen: Ha, I see you're from KC, Mark. I wouldn't fret. I don't think they're going to back up the truck and make a rash trade this year. And to be fair, while I personally wouldn't have made the Myers-Shields trade, I don't think it was nearly as bad as people made it out to be at the time.
hamsterjockey (DC): Is trading Joey Votto for Dee Gordon straight up giving too much? I need 2B help (have Zobrist) and I need stolen bases. My 1B is Rizzo and my 1B/3B is filled by VMart
J.P. Breen: Yeah, that's too much.
TJ (Fremont, CA): The Reds leftfielder in 2015 is _____.
J.P. Breen: not currently on the 25-man roster
Jape82 (Ottawa, ON): Are you a believer in Dee Gordon? Has his approach/skill set improved enough to explain the start he's had or is this just an example of small sample size? Can you see him being their everyday 2B still three years from now?
J.P. Breen: I briefly touched on Dee Gordon here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=23920
And, no, I see Dee Gordon as a platoon bat.
Matt (Chicago): Given the unpredictability of adjustment to the major-league level I know it's tough to say but how soon do you think the core of offensive talent that CHC has (Rizzo, Castro, Baez, Bryant, Alcantara) is functioning as an offensive juggernaut?
J.P. Breen: I'll say 2016. I like what they're putting together on the North Side.
childgrambino (Richmond, VA): which 7 of these guys do i keep for next year: buxton, addison russell, correa, sano, justin upton, chris sale, bundy, tijuan walker, lucas giolito, arismendy alcantara. thanks.
J.P. Breen: I want all of them, haha. That's quite a list from which to choose!
Put me down for: Upton, Sale, Bundy, Giolito, Buxton, Russell, and Alcantara. Correa's major injury should slow his timeline. Sano and Walker are obviously attractive, but some guys aren't going to make the cut. Fortunately, I'm not sure there are any definite wrong answers in this case. It's just about personal preference and how much you value current production versus future production.
Matt P (Baltimore): Chris Taylor is having a strong year on paper. Is he a top 100 prospect at this point?
J.P. Breen: Nope. Doesn't mean he's a bad player, either. Just means his upside is too limited to crack the top-100. Many useful big leaguers won't make the top-100 prospects.
childgrambino (Richmond, VA): Are you with Sports Illustrated in that the Astros will be World Series caliber in 2017?
J.P. Breen: That's putting the cart before the horse, in my opinion. I think the Astros are building a quality base of talent that should be ready to contribute in a meaningful way by 2017. It's just too much to predict "World Series caliber-ness" that far in advance. Astros fans should be encouraged about the future, though, and that's what is ultimately important in Houston.
Ned Yost (Kansas City): How did Soup pitch?
J.P. Breen: Soup pitched great. He really did. He pitched great.
Side note: Ned Yost is the man. Maybe not the best manager, but he's the man.
gerrybraun (san diego): Does Arodys Vizcaino look like a future Cubs closer?
J.P. Breen: The "closer tag" is a fickle beast. He looks like a back-end option in the bullpen, though. That's for sure.
RatedRookie (Atlanta): I watching the video for Thong Song. This chat is inspirational!
J.P. Breen: Let this be on the record: I don't support this.
Tino (NY): J.D. Martinez or Alex Gordon ROS?
J.P. Breen: Alex Gordon, and at the end of the season, I'm not so sure that it's even close.
Shawn (Cubicle): Can you help us make sense of Zack Wheeler?
J.P. Breen: Zack Wheeler has gotten a lot of play because his peripherals look great. He's striking out guys, his ground-ball rate is solid, and he's carrying a 3.28 FIP. That's led to many - including myself - call him a "buy low" candidate. However, he needs to figure out how to handle lefties. He has a 12.4% walk rate against lefties, and they're hitting .295/.384/.418 on the season. Until he can corral opposite-handed pitching, his overall numbers won't be as attractive as his peripherals.
childgrambino (Richmond, VA): where do you stand on the idea of anchoring your dynasty staff with two former prospects with TJ on their resume (Giolito, Bundy)? Do you think they are at more risk for already having the surgery or is their upside just too tempting to ignore?
J.P. Breen: The risk is there, as you've said, but the upside is immense. I have no problems with it. A year from now, I think people will have forgotten about the recent TJ surgery and will be clamoring to get them on their pitching staff. If you're not worried about competing right now, I have no problem with it. I said it before, and I'll say it again. Giolito is a bad mf-er.
nathaniel (wisconsin): Wiggins or Parker?
J.P. Breen: We were going along nice and smoothly. I answered some baseball questions, a couple misguided questions about Dru Hill, Zack Morris, and Sisqo, and some fantasy baseball questions. Now, you come in here with an NBA question? You're breaking my heart.
I'll say Jabari Parker -- but what do I know? I'm a Timberwolves fan and have largely lost the will to live.
Alex (Anaheim): Does Pete O'Brien project as a major league bat?
J.P. Breen: Not as a starting-caliber bat, no. Not for me.
CarolinaCubbie (Greensboro): What team do you think is most likely to go after Samardzija and what would a package for him look like?
J.P. Breen: Samardzija is going to be an attractive asset on the trade market. The Blue Jays, Braves, Angels, Royals, Giants, and even a team like the Orioles could come calling. I'm not the best at putting together potential trade packages, but I have to imagine any package will center around a pitching prospect that's relatively close to the majors -- which is why I largely think the Angels have no shot to acquire either Samardzija or David Price. I literally have no idea what they could offer that anyone would care about.
If the Royals are willing to part with Kyle Zimmer, they'll have a chance to acquire Price/Samardzija, depending on the remainder of the package.
childgrambino (Richmond, VA): Do you think Gallo will make enough contact in the Bigs for his 80 tool power to play? Is he more Giancarlo Stanton or Adam Dunn?
J.P. Breen: Probably split the difference, but I do like the improvements Gallo has made this year. Scouts are becoming more convinced that he's a viable third baseman, too, which is huge. Right now, I'm seeing something like .240-to-.255 with 30+ homers as being a reasonable explanation. If he continues to improve, though ... help us all.
mattyjames1 (Regina): 12 team points blah blah blah. We get 6 keepers, should I be hanging onto Singleton when I have Springer, Cespedes, Polanco, Baez, Heaney, and JoFer :( ?
I'm debating dumping him for Adam Dunn at 1B who I obviously wouldn't keep.
J.P. Breen: If we're talking ROS, I have no problem hanging on to Singleton over Dunn -- that way, you can make your keeper selection later in the year when you have more information available. I also don't think it's a foregone conclusion that Singleton performs worse than Dunn throughout the remainder of the year.
And yeah ... Jose Fernandez. :(
chri521 (NYC): Jean Segura is just E-Cab in disguise isn't he? He so teased us with his H1-13!
J.P. Breen: Nah, I don't think it's that easy. I like what Jean Segura brings to the table. He just needs to learn to utilize it better.
R.J. (Palo Alto): It would be a colossal waste of time for the Rays to demand Polanco from the Pirates. What's a more realistic trade scenario involving Price? Joc Pederson plus a low-level pitcher? Piscotty & Marco Gonzalez? Thanks.
J.P. Breen: Of course it would would be a waste of time for the Pirates. They wouldn't make that deal.
I don't think either of those are good enough offers for someone like David Price. You have to realize that he's not a one-year rental. James Shields netted Wil Myers PLUS. David Price is better than James Shields. Whatever the Rays get in return for Price, it's going to be a haul.
BeerTheDeer (Milwaukee): Oswaldo Arcia or Orlando Arcia? GO!
J.P. Breen: Oswaldo. I like that Orlando can play a legitimate shortstop, but the bat is still a question mark. I think Oswaldo Arcia can hit major-league pitching and be a 20+ homer guy. The defense is a question mark, but I'll take the stick.
Jim (Houston): What are your thoughts on Domingo Santana?
J.P. Breen: People forget about him too much. Fantasy owners and Astros fans will have to take the bad with the good when watching Santana at the major-league level, but his power potential is legit and I think he'll hit enough for it to be usable power. If everything goes right, and I recognize that it rarely does, I do think the Nelson Cruz comparison is apt. If I dream, I could see a .250-.265 batting average and 25+ homers.
Josh (Pittsburgh): 5x5 Dynasty league can keep as long as you want. Trade Cargo and Fielder(not being kept) for Harper?
J.P. Breen: Size of the league matters in this case, but you should be getting more than Harper in return in dynasty formats. Again, I'm a believer in Harper. You just might be underestimating what Carlos Gonzalez can do when healthy -- and you have to realize that Harper has a health caveat too. Harper is the best option of the three in dynasty formats. I'm just not sure it's a massive gap between them.
The Dude (Office): Are you worried about Big Game James at all? He's getting hit a little harder and the K's have disappeared.
J.P. Breen: I'm not sure that "worried" is the right word, but it's time to be realistic about his future expected performance. He's 32 years old and has pitched more than 200 innings for each of the past seven years, and he's on pace to make it eight-consecutive years. There's a lot of wear on the arm. His swinging-strike rate is dropping, which is why the strikeouts have gone away. It has nothing to do w/ his velocity, which has remained consistent. I'm not too concerned because the walk rate has correspondingly dropped, and I think the home runs will eventually subside because of his home park.
He's just not an elite option anymore, which is not to say he's not a useful fantasy pitcher or a useful #2 starter for the Royals.
And, The Dude, I commend you for being in the office today. Someone had to keep the country running while the US advanced to the Round of 16. I imagine that many of your co-workers mysteriously got "sick" today. Convenient timing. Hope you were able to find time to watch the game during your lunch break at the office.
ganz1080 (CT): all things equal, trade away machado to get homer bailey? non-keeper league
J.P. Breen: Sure. I wouldn't have a problem with that. Don't have strong feelings either way, though.
Shawnykid23 (CT): Who are few guys you'd be buying/selling right now?
J.P. Breen: I guess I don't necessarily keep a list like this lying around, but off the top of my head...
I'm selling: Jesse Chavez, Chase Whitley, Lonnie Chisenhall, Gordon Beckham
I'm buying: Kole Calhoun, Ian Kennedy, Joey Votto, Michael Brantley, Will Smith
Cris E (St Paul, MN): Lots of wild experiments in MIN this year. Danny Santana learning CF in the bigs, now Jorge Polanco getting a call up from high A. Is this as unusual as it seems?
J.P. Breen: I don't think so. The Twins are not going to compete this year. They need a short-term answer in CF until Buxton is ready, and Santana is not a long-term answer anywhere. He's likely a utility guy, which is how they're treating him at the moment. I don't think the Jorge Polanco promotion will be for too long. It surprised the mess outta me, but I think it's just a reflection on how much they like him and is a convenient move given the current 40-man roster construction.
Jayson (Tampa): Thoughts on Jeremy Hellickson once he comes off the DL?
J.P. Breen: Blah. I'm mostly apathetic. The profile isn't overly attractive. I'll be interested to see what his velocity is like when he returns. He's a fly-ball, home-run prone pitcher without the requisite strikeouts. He'll always walk a fine line. When he can consistently induce weak contact and limit his BABIP, he'll find success. When he doesn't, he'll get bombed like he did in 2013. It's just not anything I'm going to get excited about.
TheWildPitch (NY): Could you provide some info on some more unknown prospects? Sebastian Elizade, Luis Lugo, and Matt Milroy?
J.P. Breen: Man, you're getting out of my depth on these ones. These are beautiful questions for the BP Prospect Team, as they're far smarter than me and have seen these guys play. I'll be catching more minor-league games this summer, now that grad school is done for the summer. In fact, I'll be checking out Kane County tonight.
Zim (Telluride): Given J.D. Martinez's recent hot streak, what's a range of names that I should to get if I am trying to "sell high?"
J.P. Breen: Completely depends on your roster construction, what past trades have looked like in your league, and whether it's a dynasty or re-draft league. My apologies on being obtuse, but it's too difficult to offer concrete help on something like this, unless I had more context and info. If I'm an opposing fantasy owner, I'm not paying much for J.D. Martinez whatsoever. I might kick the tires and hope the price is low, but I'm not giving up much.
Phil23 (Las Vegas): Connor Gillispie not on your list of selling?
J.P. Breen: Nah. I don't really care much about Conor Gillaspie. If someone in your fantasy league wants to give up something legitimate for Gillaspie, though, you should do that. He's not very good.
Also, the name Conor isn't high on my wish list. Either spell it as Connor, or don't do it at all.
Frank (Houston): Can you tell us when the midseason top 50 will be released to the public?
J.P. Breen: That's up to people paid more than me, brother. It's gonna be sweet, though. I completely understand why you're itching for it to be released. The BP Prospect Team is putting together a killer Top 50 with great profiles. I'm looking forward to seeing the final product myself.
Hank (Austin): Need a short-term speed boost until Lawrie comes back -- thoughts on James Jones as a pure SB play?
J.P. Breen: I can dig it.
Jurgen Klinsmann (Brazil): What's your outlook on Trevor May and Alex Meyer for this season? Who gets the call first and how do each of them do in MLB?
J.P. Breen: I'm not huge on Trevor May, but he's certainly become more interesting. I'm all about Alex Meyer, though. I think he's a potential #2 starter if he can sustain his improved command. I acquired him a couple months ago in my 20-team dynasty league and am looking forward to reaping the benefits as soon as 2015. I think he's legit. On the flip side, I'm not convinced Trevor May is anything more than a back-end option.
Bob (Dallas): Dan Vogelbach. Matt Adams 2.0? Thoughts on Big Dan?
J.P. Breen: I'm not sure where Dan is going to play on the diamond, or if he can play a defensive role on the diamond, but the dude can mash. Guys with his power will get every chance to find a defensive home.
Chewbacca (Hoth): Hi J.P.! Please rank these guys ROS - Zobrist, Howie Kendrick, Pedroia, Kinsler
J.P. Breen: Kinsler, Pedroia, Zobrist, Kendrick
You can maybe flip Zobrist and Pedroia. Kinsler is definitely #1 for me and Kendrick is #4. The other two are changeable.
PJ (Boston): Rank these guys: Brock Holt, CJ Cron and Steve Pearce
J.P. Breen: Cron, Holt, Pearce. I'd watch to see if Cron is traded for an arm this summer, though. That would potentially change things.
rookie319s (saint louis): What's Tyrone Taylors upside? Thanks!
J.P. Breen: Tyrone Taylor is more of a doubles guy, but he could be a potential 15/20 guy in Miller Park for the Brewers. He still has a way to go with the bat, but he profiles as someone who can legitimately stay in center field. He's raw and learning how to translate his tools to on-field production, but I like him. He's athletic and is showing that he can adjust midseason.
hamsterjockey (DC): Who ends up with more saves by seasons end, Neil Ramirez or Hector Rondon?
J.P. Breen: Thought I answered this one, but perhaps I missed hitting "submit" because we're pushing three hours. I still think Rondon holds onto the closer's role for the majority of the season. The Cubs have no reason to panic and remove him from the ninth inning.
Steve (Chicago): I’m having a hard time figuring out Ozuna. Is this the type of production we can continue to expect, particularly with HRs and RBI’s? In a dynasty league, would you trade him for Jesse Chavez if they both have the same price?
J.P. Breen: I'm not a believer in Jesse Chavez. I do think that Ozuna is someone you can reasonably sell. He's young enough and has performed enough to have legitimate value, but I'm not sure he hits for enough average to matter down the road. He hits too many ground balls and has a questionable approach, not to mention he struggles to reach .300 with the OBP, which could eventually remove him from the everyday role in the outfield. I have no problem selling on Ozuna. I'd just look for something better than Chavez.
joe (houston): Myself along with all of Astros fans are hoping this Appel debacle is only temporary, please talk us off the ledge.
J.P. Breen: Appel is a strange cat and there are legitimate concerns with how he shows the baseball for too long, which makes him too hittable, but I wonder if there's an injury that's lingering beneath the surface. I think it would be unwise to write him off, though. Too much talent. He just has some legitimate question marks -- which I understand is frustrating from such a high draft pick.
Bill (Boston): Do you like Derek Norris or Mike Zunino better long term for fantasy?
J.P. Breen: Norris.
Kenny (Milwaukee): Derek Norris or Wilson Ramos ROS?
J.P. Breen: I'll stick with Norris, but it's probably close. I like what Norris can do w/ his counting stats in Oakland. They're a juggernaut this year.
DrDaley (The Pharmacy): Thoughts on Josh Harrison, keep playing regularly?
J.P. Breen: I'm pretty apathetic about it. He may be able to put together a decent batting average with some BABIP help, but he's still not going to do much in other categories. Put it this way, unless I were in a really deep league, I wouldn't be picking him up off the waiver wire.
J. Hendry (hangin' out): So the Cubs have the #1 farm system right now? Jeeez, where would they rank if Baez & Almora didn't suck this year, and C. J. Edwards and Soler weren't injured?
J.P. Breen: I'm including Baez. I'm not writing him off. I think Baez is a stud.
John (Frederick): Thoughts on James Jones in Seattle? Looks like he is second to only Hamilton in steals over the last month.
J.P. Breen: James Jones is interesting because he should be able to post a decent enough average and is batting high in the Mariners' batting order, which is facilitating stolen bases and runs. I beat myself up over missing him on the waiver wire because I didn't offer enough FAAB. He's a lower-end option, but if you're looking for steals, you could do much, much worse. Hell, you could be suffering through The Emilio Bonifacio Experience. You're likely bordering on seeking professional help.
RatedRookie (Atlanta): Does Garrett Richards have ace upside? Does he seem to be reaching that ceiling?
J.P. Breen: Nah. He's not an ace for me. I like him and own him in a couple leagues, but calling him a potential ace goes way too far. I'm excited about the steps forward he made this year, and his transformation shows that we may be too quick in dismissing top prospects when they struggle for a year or two. Some guys need some time to adjust. There's nothing wrong with that.
Alex (DC): 16 Team Dynasty h2h with QS, OPS, and SV/HD
Posey+Werth+Meyer (or Nelson) for Correa+Pederson+Medlen+Franklin - who wins this one?
J.P. Breen: I'm going with the Posey side, and I really prefer the Posey side if Meyer is involved.
Chris (also from KC): How can a guy who can't either get healthy or stay healthy (Zimmer) headline a package for Price or Shark? If you're Dayton Moore don't you have to do that (and then the pundits decry it)?
J.P. Breen: There's risk there, and yeah, I'd do that if I were Dayton Moore. It'd be Zimmer plus other pieces. He's just someone who could potentially help a big-league rotation as soon as next year, if he can get healthy. You're 100% correct, though, that the health would be a major issue in any trade. It would likely lead to the secondary pieces being valuable as well.
RatedRookie (Atlanta): I'm in a league that is "dynasty" by default (16-keepers, keep-forever) in which most of the other managers play as if it is a redraft league. Given that, if I offered Oscar Taveras for Trevor Rosenthal, it would be refused. Crazy, right?
J.P. Breen: This makes me sad. However, it also means you should be able to clean up in a couple years.
Guy (Work): Kane County huh? Schwarber sure seems to be the real deal. You think there's any chance he sticks behind the plate?
J.P. Breen: No, but I'm looking forward to watching him mash tonight. I'll probably take a picture or two and send them to Bret, especially if he crushes a homer or two.
Jason (Atlanta): Do you think Andrelton Simmons will eventually hit for average?
J.P. Breen: There's a chance, but I don't really like the approach. I wouldn't bet on it. Good thing he's a wizard with the glove, which more than makes up for it.
Raptor (The A): Speaking of selling? Pedroia & Wright??
J.P. Breen: I'd be willing to sell either of those players. Absolutely.
Thanks everyone for the chat. It was my first at BP, but certainly not my last, and I appreciate that y'all brought the #want this afternoon. We'll do it again. You can count on it.
J.P. Breen: Thanks again.