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Chat: Bret Sayre

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Wednesday April 29, 2015 8:00 PM ET chat session with Bret Sayre.


Bret leads our fantasy coverage and is one of the hosts of the TINO and Flags Fly Forever podcasts. Ask him about anything.

Bret Sayre: I'm down. Let's talk some baseball on this balmy Wednesday evening.

rawhide06 (Texas): Who will bounce back after the slow start. Posey, Encarnacion, C.Davis, or Braun?

Bret Sayre: All of them? I guess I'm most concerned about Davis, just because of his contact issues, but if I own any of these four guys, I'm not freaking out.

Matt (Seattle): How do you prefer to build a dynasty roster: surround two or three elite guys with decent players, or a solid all around team with no glaring weaknesses? (Applies to both prospects and normal team)

Bret Sayre: Very much depends on the depth of your league. Might prefer the former in a shallow league, but having a deep team with no weaknesses in a deep league is ideal. Stats are stats, whether they come in the form of superstars or not.

Schmilkus Orangaflop (Yugoslavia): Will Orlando Arcia have any significant fantasy implications in the future or is he Alcides Escobar 2.0? Does he have any chance to develop maybe 12-15 HR power or are we looking at a 5-8 type of guy?

Bret Sayre: I think the power could top out at 10-12, even with the park helping him in Milwaukee, but he has more fantasy potential than Escobar. That said, I don't think he'll contribute as much on the base paths as Escobar, specifically. He's more of a 20-25 steal guy in my book.

steelydanu (Los Angeles): Hi, I own Lucas Giolito on my fantasy minor league roster and I have not heard any information as to if/when he starts pitching this year. Would you have any info??

Bret Sayre: Nothing has been formally announced yet, but I'd expect to see Giolito hit an affiliate (likely Potomac) within the next couple of weeks. He's must watch TV wherever he is.

Number27 (THRILLwaukee): Bret, thanks in advance. In a keeper, I drafted Seager and Bryant. Dynasty 10 teams. Don't see myself giving up on Bryant. I need Closer depth. Should I dangle Seager for a closer or should I hold out for bigger return? I have an offer on him in the form of Brett Cecil. Thanks again!

Bret Sayre: Do not do that. Please do not do that. If I'm trading Corey Seager in a dynasty league right now, I'd better be getting at least a top-75 overall player back.

Alex (Anaheim): Am I crazy to own Alex Guerrero in a 12-team mixed?

Bret Sayre: While he's going well and playing more often than not? Absolutely not. However, don't grow attached to him.

Eric (Cleveland): Clint Frazier seems to be starting slow again and striking out at an alarming rate. Should Cleveland fans be worried? Is Bradley Zimmer possibly the better prospect?

Bret Sayre: No, they should not be worried. Baseball is hard, even for someone with as much natural talent as Frazier. Right now, Zimmer is the better player and better hitter, but he's not the better prospect. It's important to remember that while they're teammates, Frazier is two years younger than Zimmer is.

Graham (richmond, va): i traded Adrian Gonzalez for Edwin encarnacion? Will I end up happy with this?

Bret Sayre: Yea. I'd take Encarnacion over Gonzalez right now, so I'd say you did just fine.

kalimantan (ubud): Gausman or Syndergaard in dynasty?

Bret Sayre: I still want Thor.

Joey (PA): Pls rank these potential Wainright replacement for ROS: Cosart, Hector Santiago, Haren, Locke, Wood, Wandy, Colome & Happ. Thanks!

Bret Sayre: I'd go Cosart, Wood, Santiago, Haren, Happ, Locke, Colome, Wandy.

neph27 (The cmbl): Read some reports that Alex Reyes stuff has ticked up and he's hit 100 on the gun now. Any truth to this and if so what do you make of it?

Bret Sayre: Reyes has always had top shelf stuff, it's just a matter of refinement and learning how to pitch. Early returns are that he's making strides in those areas, so he's definitely someone who is raising their stock at the moment. Just don't get carried away - he's got a long way to go.

Sam (College Park): Has Alcantara lost his dynasty value or is there any hope? Don't see where he plays in the future, especially after his latest struggles.

Bret Sayre: Absolutely not. It's been less than four weeks between the majors (where he got inconsistent playing time) and the minors. He's also still 23 years old. Let's take a collective deep breath here.

Bill Clinton (Las Vegas): Hey Bret, thanks for doing this chat. Keep up the good work here at BP. Any reports on if Nick Williams has changed his approach yet? The stats seem to support him being more selective this year versus last year, such as having a 3:1 ratio of balls in play to swinging strikes. Is this just one of those April type of things, or are we seeing Williams finally refining his approach? If he does refine it, what's his true upside?

Bret Sayre: If you're talking pure upside, Williams could be a .300 hitter with 25 homers. Of course, it's unlikely he'll ever get there. The reports haven't been glowing this year, but there is a little bit of progress being shown. If he can continue that, he might actually be a useful fantasy player.

respo22 (NJ): It's too early to really consider rebuilding for next year, but do you think it's better to be first to try and rebuild or better to wait as long as you can?

Bret Sayre: If you really think you have no shot in 2015, it never hurts to put feelers out there and see if the deals are right for you this early. If the league is full of buyers right now (which is often league-dependent and somewhat rare), then you could make out well. Otherwise, just hold on until more teams feel the need to push in--even if you have more competition.

Mikey (TOR): How valuable is Roberto Osuna? Worth stashing in 200-prospect league?

Bret Sayre: I think he's right in that 150 range, so I'd say yes. I think he's likely to end up back in a starting role, and this relief experience may help him transition into that in the future.

Alex (Palm Springs): Traded Abreu preseason for Donaldson, Alex Wood, and Eduardo Rodiguez. Then I sent Donaldson for Longoria, Gio Gonzalez, Leonys Martin, and Bradley Zimmer. So basically turned Abreu into Wood, E-Rod, Longoria, Gio, Martin, and Zimmer. Smart move, or would you rather take quality over quantity here?

Bret Sayre: Impossible to answer without knowing how deep the league is. If it's relatively shallow, I'd take Abreu. If it's deep, and you had lots of holes on your roster, it's pretty good diversification of resources.

Marlon (Earth): Would you rather own Nick Williams or Phil Ervin in a dynasty? How much does Ervn's hot start affect your decision?

Bret Sayre: Nick Williams and it's not close. For the second question, it doesn't. Let's see what happens when he's at a more age-appropriate level.

Bryan (Houston): Correa time soon?

Bret Sayre: I still doubt we see him in 2016, even though I think he could probably handle the transition pretty well in the second half. He's a special talent.

John (Cincinnati): In deeper mixed redraft leagues, how rosterable is Eovaldi right now?

Bret Sayre: He's not, as anything more than a streamer in large parks.

Mike (NY): What do you think of the SAL SS prospects Albies and Mateo?

Bret Sayre: Albies is a really strong all-around prospect, but not likely a huge fantasy guy. Mateo is also a really strong all-around prospect, but he could be a fantasy monster with the speed he has.

Michael (Boston): Does Derek Hill have legit fantasy upside or is it more real-life upside? What's his best case scenario? 40 SB with a .270 average and 10 HR?

Bret Sayre: Nope, the fantasy upside is absolutely legit. 30-plus stolen bases with the possibility of getting to fringe-average power? That's a big deal in this offensive environment.

Stros (Dallas): Top 2 out of this list. L.Martin, Werth, A.Garcia, Moss, Marisnick or Fowler?

Bret Sayre: I'm going to make Mauricio mad with this one, but give me Moss and Fowler.

Michael Westen (Miami): What has a better chance of happening? 1. Bartolo Colon hitting 2 HR's in a single game OR 2. Daniel Vogelbach beating Billy Hamilton in a foot race.

Bret Sayre: Definitely Vogelbach beating Hamilton in a foot race. All it takes is an injury.

Eric (Miami): Traded jbats, kluber and uhera for mccutchen, perdroia, goo. Thinking I lost the trade. ??

Bret Sayre: I'm thinking this is wonderful #BatSignalSpelling. Good luck with goo though.

Jon (Mil.): Saw in the minor league update today at BP that Bradley Zimmer "could" eventually be an everyday guy. It kind of bummed be out, because I saw him as someone that could potentially be a monster if he bulks up a bit and has 25/25 upside. Which side are you on?

Bret Sayre: I'm very much on the side that he does not have that kind of upside. He's a good college bat playing in High-A in his first full season, he should be hitting like this.

Dylan (RI): Singleton is once again is in AAA hitting .254/.375/.534 with 4 HR and 5 doubles. Any change he get another shot if Carter continues to struggle. The lesser of the strikeouts evil.

Bret Sayre: Absolutely. May not come at the expense of Carter, but I see Singleton getting another shot this summer--especially if he keeps his head above water in Triple-A.

Schmilkus Orangaflop (Yugoslavia): Thoughts on Devon Travis' hot start to the year? Could he be a top 5 2B this season? Is 15/15 with a .280 AVG reasonable to expect or am I off? Is the guy for real?

Bret Sayre: Do you guys remember when Brian Roberts hit .379/.459/.726 with 8 homers and 10 steals in April of 2005? Travis can hit enough to be a major league regular, but top five second baseman he is not--even with this hot start. That's rich in both the average and power for me.

Albert (Ridgewood): How much fantasy upside does Nomar Mazara have? 30 HR's and a .260 AVG? Do you think he'll be a top 10 prospect by season's end?

Bret Sayre: I was actually having this exact conversation with Ben, Craig and Mau randomly a few weeks ago. I think he is very close to a top-10 prospect, but not quite there. Also, that sells him short in the upside department. He could hit .280-plus at peak, with that power to boot, if it really clicks.

Kolten (Seattle): What are your thoughts on Jimmy Paredes? Rather own him or Adam Lind in a shallow re-draft? Thanks!

Bret Sayre: I think myself, JP Breen and the rest of the Adam Lind Admiration Society need to have a word with you privately. Paredes is a flavor of the week. Don't get attached.

Mike (Maine): I stashed Ivan Nova in a 12-team dynasty this year. Yay me, or does he lack enough upside?

Bret Sayre: The latter. There are better options out there to stash.

Tommy (St. Louis): Please tell me that the high rookie-draft pick I spent on Jung-Ho Kang was not in vain.

Bret Sayre: It probably was.

Dan (Montana): Do you find all around profiles of guys like Brett Phillips, Derek Fisher, and Teoscar Hernandez (yes, I just realized that these are all Houston outfielders....) more attractive or less in H2H leagues? All seem like potential 15/15 or 20/20 players, but I can't tell if that's better or worse than a 10/30 or 30/10 guy.

Bret Sayre: I prefer those types of players in all leagues, but sure, they get a slight bump up in H2H.

Silverback38 (VA): Who is the better Dynasty 2B, Addison Russell or Devon Travis?

Bret Sayre: Oh come on. Really?

Keith (Manchester, CT): Thanks Bret. Could you rank these prospect starters? Brent Honeywell, Sean Newcomb and Rob Kaminsky

Bret Sayre: I'd go Honeywell, Kaminsky, Newcomb.

Matt (Cambridge): Does a healthy Jeff Hoffman rank 1B to Giolito 1A in terms of pure ceiling and stuff in the minors? I heard strong strong reports today saying he was sitting 95-97 and hitting 98 with the devastating curve. I saw him on the Cape, so I could be bias.

Bret Sayre: Bold prediction: Hoffman is a top-three pitching prospect at the end of the 2015 season. He's super, super legit.

Basil (Killeen): Has Rafael Devers' slow start slowed down the love train for him or is this not indicative of his potential?

Bret Sayre: Nope. He's an 18-year old hitting .286 in full-season ball. There's nothing wrong with this.

Brandon Drury (Arizona): Am I ownable in 180-prospect dynasty leagues?

Bret Sayre: You're ownable in 80-prospect dynasty leagues.

John (Seattle): Is D.J. Peterson ever going to hit enough to be a top-12 fantasy first baseman?

Bret Sayre: It's close, but I'll say no. And that's if things work out well.

John (Vermont): Saw that Ben Badler said something along the lines of him not picking too many other pitching prospects over Marcos Molina on twitter, which kind of blew me away because I didn't think he had that much upside. Do you agree with Badler there?

Bret Sayre: Molina doesn't have ace upside, but he is a very good pitching prospect. He could be a top-20 pitching prospect by year's end if he handles the aggressive promotion well, but I wouldn't make that statement now.

Mike (VA beach): Would you give up 2 years of Kemp and 3 years of Chapman to get 8 years of Kris Bryant in dynasty league?

Bret Sayre: No question. Yes.

Daniel (NM): What is the potential fantasy profile for Wilmer Difo?

Bret Sayre: In terms of upside, a .290 hitter who can hit 10-12 homers and steal 25-30 bases. Even a compressed version of that is still a playable middle infielder in most leagues.

Cody (El Galloville): Is Albert Pujols done? Is it possible he's not rosterable in 12 tm mixed?

Bret Sayre: This is what I get for chatting during April, isn't it?

Southcoast57 (Texas): Is David Phelps for real? He has looked good as a starter against the Mets and Phili but he's not striking out many batters (nor is he walking many batters). Also, I am looking at De La Rosa who is striking out alot of batters and not walking many. Looks like he is using his changeup more and FB less. Do you like either pitcher going forward in a NL only 4x4, 13 team league? THanks,

Bret Sayre: I mean, no, he's not for real like this, but him and JLDR are both worth owning in that deep of a league. Phelps just may not be able to hold a rotation spot for that long with Alvarez on the way back and Fernandez eventually coming.

JT Smooth (Loveboat Cap'n): I hate to make you answer this, but such is life in deep leagues: drop 33 year old Aaron Hill for 33 year old Alexei Ramirez for my MI slot in a 6x6 OPS dynasty?

Bret Sayre: I hate to break it to you, but if Alexei Ramirez was available on your waiver wire, you're not in a deep league.

Charles (NYC): Could Aaron Nola be up by the ASB? He is as advanced as they come and is doing Nola things with a 18/2 K:BB rate in AA with a good 2.55 ERA. Nobody could be blocking him by the trade deadline as I iamgine Hamels and Harang are gone.

Bret Sayre: I think we see Nola in August, but he'd probably be ready in another month or so (if he's not now).

Wood (Miami): Plawecki, Realmuto, or Swihart (if he comes up this year)

Bret Sayre: Just for this year? Give me Realmuto.

Peter (Delaware): Addison Reed...Hold, Sell, or Drop?

Bret Sayre: Until he's no longer the closer, hold.

jonraypyle (Texas): Pre season traded Correa for Mookie and Roogie in my AL only. Based on your dynasty rankings Mookie and Correa were close and I needed help at MI. Love Mookie so far but am already feeling sellers remorse. Did I make a boo boo?

Bret Sayre: Nothing wrong with that trade at all.

Silverback38 (VA): Who has the bigger upside: Dylan Baker, Blake Snell, or Branden Kline?

Bret Sayre: Snell has the biggest upside.

One More (Question): Better stat to add to evaluate players. (I use wOBA, K%, BB/K% and Contact now.) wRC+, SwStrk, or BABIP?

Bret Sayre: Why choose one when you can look at them all? Every stat tells a story.

Tommy (Maryland): Is someone like Gilbert Lara worth holding onto in a 180 prospect league? I have him based on the upside alone but am unsure if I should drop him for a guy like Refsnyder, Jenkins, or Baldino based on proximity to the majors.

Bret Sayre: He's borderline, but I'd hang onto him. He's a long way away, but he has a ton of upside.

prospies (usa): Some prospects like trout, harper Jose Fernandez and Kris Bryant spoil us to the fact that most players are on a more regular trajectory which includes an adjustment period. Which players in the minor leagues may be headed towards immediate fantasy stardom. Specifically interested in Carlos correa and Julio urias and their chances to be big time contributors early.

Bret Sayre: I could see Corey Seager and Julio Urias playing at pretty high levels immediately.

Ralph (Camden ): So do you think Realmuto will be decent? Any predicted stats?

Bret Sayre: Decent enough. Maybe 7-8 homers and 7-8 steals with an OK average. That passes for half-decent among catchers these days.

Don Slaught (sent from my iPhone): In a deep 12 team keeper league, should i pick up Marco Gonzales? Does he have the highest upside in the short term of the available pitchers? Gausman is available too...

Bret Sayre: I wouldn't. Gonzalez may have the best chance of running with that rotation spot in the long-run, but he doesn't really have shallow mixed upside.

Bill (NJ): Is Andrew Miller going to keep the Yankees closing job rest of season (I shouldn't expect any saves from Betances on my roster anymore, right?)

Bret Sayre: The way Miller is pitching, I wouldn't be expecting much more than a handful of saves from Betances.

David (Texas): Does Mazara have higher upside than Gallo, even with the 80 power dingers? Is a .240, 40 homer third baseman > .280, 30 homer right fielder?

Bret Sayre: It's actually pretty close. The problem is that if Gallo hits 50, there's a sizable difference. So I'd still take his pure upside.

Gila Monster (Boston): Is Vogelbach #legit? Small sample, but he has cut down on the strikeouts,still walking, and killing the ball with Schwaber. Odd player type we don't see too often. Best comp?

Bret Sayre: You bet he is, but not because of his hot start. He can flat out hit. It's really not that weird of a player type. In any other system, he'd be a really good first base prospect, but since the Cubs have Anthony Rizzo, he's viewed a little differently. Outside of the glove, which he's admitted far worse with, how much worse of a prospect is he than Eric Hosmer was at the same stage?

Danny (OK): Someone is dying for some prospects, and also happens to have George Springer on his team. I can offer him Brad Zimmer, Brett Phillips, Derek Fisher, Matt Wisler, D.J. Peterson, Derek Hill, and some other top-90 MLB OF's like Crawford and Fowler. Which of those guys should I give him for Springer?

Bret Sayre: I'd trade Zimmer while his value is hot. You'd probably have to give up less overall that way.

Kyle Schwarber (Tennessee ): I'm trying to prove all the haters wrong just for your Bret. It is all for you.

Bret Sayre: We're in this together, Kyle. You and me.

Alex (Austin): Can Oswaldo Arcia be a poor man's Mark Trumbo this season? If not, how long until he is?

Bret Sayre: He could be a regular Mark Trumbo later this season. The power is real and the contact issues are as well.

Robert (Lexington): Who do you think the Saints take at 13 in the draft tomorrow?

Bret Sayre: Brendan Rodgers. Because he's the answer to all draft questions.

What? (Brooklyn): Most confusing promotion: Bubba Starling was promoted to AA, despite a 32% K-rate as A+....Just trade him to an NFL team somehow or admit he is a worse Drew Stubbs.

Bret Sayre: I mean, at some point you need to get him to the major league level, given his pedigree and athleticism, and see if anything sticks. Giving up on him before that stage is just wasteful.

Bret Sayre: Thanks for the questions, everyone. Let's do this again soon. Now it's time to finish the Stash List (coming out tomorrow!) I'm not beyond a plug here.

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