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Eric Roseberry is a member of the Baseball Prospectus fantasy team and host of the On Baseball Writing podcast.
Eric Roseberry: Alright folks, it's 1:00 here in Indiana so let's get this chat going. I'm happy to answer any of your fantasy, On Baseball Writing, general baseball news, or professional wrestling related questions.
grimoren189 (Houston): What's impressed you most about Garrett so far? Changeup? Command?
Eric Roseberry: His command. During most of his time in the minors he never had a BB/9 under 3.2. Coming in to this season I was excited about Garrett, but you knew there was the chance that he could have some rough outings and walk a handful of guys. The fact that he's only walked two hitters in just over 12 innings is very encouraging. I'm sure he'll have some games where the command isn't as sharp, but he's making a strong case to stay in the rotation the entire season (even when/if Bailey/DeSclafani come back).
Tim Livingston (Tokyo, JP): You only have time to do one of the following activities while in Tokyo: See a baseball game, or go to a big pro wrestling show. Which one do you choose? Hope you're well, my friend!
Eric Roseberry: Oh, this is a tough question. It's like asking two of my favorite children to compete against one another. If I had to pick one, I'd probably check out a pro wrestling show in Tokyo. Don't get me wrong, I love baseball. However, there's something mythical/magical about a big pro-wrestling show in that city.
Ceej (Pittsburgh): Is Rosario someone that has a shot at being up by June and Asdrubal shits to 3rd?
Eric Roseberry: Definitely. Rosario is doing nothing to temper expectations given how well he's started this season. It also won't temper expectations that Keith law just designated him the best prospect in baseball. Just to be sure, I asked resident Mets fan Mike Gianella for his thoughts. "I think there's a 75% chance. He's going to force the issue." There's your authoritative answer.
GJomes (Winner's Circle): Any particular favorites as far as podcast guests you've talked to while off the air?
Eric Roseberry: That's a good question. Off air, no one has been more helpful to this podcast than former BP author R.J. Anderson. He's been incredibly encouraging of the project, and helped connect me with a number of guests. I can't say enough good things about R.J. If you haven't listened to my episode with him you should. If only to hear about his dreams of ghost hunting with Jon Gray.
Billmc (Work): Do you see shelby Miller bouncing back to his previous good form this year?
Eric Roseberry: My guess is that Miller will settle in somewhere between his 2015 and 2016 performance (admittedly, there is a pretty wide gap there). He's had some good stretches in his first two starts of the season. I'm probably a little higher on Miller than his PECOTA projection for this season (144 IP, 4.46 ERA, 1.40 WHIP), but I wouldn't be too far off from those numbers. The early bump to his strikeout rate is nice, but he still needs to get the walk rate down.
Neal (LA): I'm rebuilding in a 30 team roto dynasty. What should I target for a return for Billy Hamilton? I'm think one top 25ish guy and another top 75-100ish. Lots of value in deep roto for those steals.
Eric Roseberry: For now, I'm hanging on to Billy Hamilton unless the deal overwhelms me. As you said, his SB production is incredibly valuable in such a deep league. Also, I don't think we've seen the best of Hamilton at the plate yet. It's been an honor to take the title of "BP writer who is most excited about Billy Hamilton" from George Bissell this season. I was pretty encouraged by the increases to his BB% throughout last season, and he's had some really good at bats in 2017. I really believe the best is still to come from Hamilton.
Michelle (Milwaukee): Side A (sending): Gregory Polanco, Seth Beer (NCAA '18), Austin Beck (HS '17). Side B (sending): Eloy Jimenez, Robert Gsellman, Aaron Nola, J.B. Bukauskus (NCAA '17), Kevin Maitan. Keep forever dynasty league (5x5 + OBP, XBH... + QS, HLD). team A has Ozuna for LF, and really need pitching; Team B is loaded with pitching and needs a LF/UT (otherwise J. Upton). Fair deal? [Obviously we can draft players from HS, college, IFA guys (Ohtani, etc.).]
Eric Roseberry: I like the deal for Side A if they're looking for pitching. I'm generally higher on Nola and Gsellman than most, and I would feel confident that you're going to get something productive out of at least one of the two. All told, I think it's a pretty fair deal. Most NCAA and HS players are so far away from producing at the major-league level, and there's so much that can happen during their development. You need to consider the impact of those players, but in terms of major league returns I feel good about it for Side A.
Now let me talk to Side B. In the short term, I'm not starting Polanco over Upton unless I really need steals. I know Upton has injury concerns, but he looked more like the player we expected him to be as last season went on. Upton gains even more value given that this is an OBP league. If your plan is to use Upton now and have Polanco for later I could see that, but don't sell him short in the present.
Josh (Evanston): 20 team dynasty league with 25-man MLB and 25-man MiLB rosters. We're allowed to draft HS/NCAA kids for our farm system, I have the best team on paper by a country mile, and a tendency to win most of my deal (maybe I'm lucky, maybe I play with 19 rubes, maybe it's Maybeline). I have an absolutely filthy SP staff (Kluber, Thor, Strasburg, Verlander, Carrasco, Hamels, Nola, Matz, Giolito, Estrada). My potential trade begins with my offer of Nola, Matz, and a 2018 Rd 1 prospect pick for Seth Beer (OF, Clemson, 2018 class), Austin Beck (OF, HS, 2017) and either Mark Melancon or Evan Gattis. Trade partner is demanding 2 SPs for Beer or 3 for Beer + another player, and wants one of the 2-3 SPs to be Carrasco or better. This guy's biggest need is SP and I think my offer is more than fair. He thinks it's only fair I pay $1.20 on the $1.00 for once (for justice) and says no deal unless I bleed a bit... Who's being unreasonable?
Eric Roseberry: You're right that your starting rotation is filthy for a 20-team dynasty. I'm not sure either side is being unreasonable as much as it's a realistic demand given the league context. No one really has any incentive to try and do a fair deal with you right now (especially if they're potentially helping you prolong your reign). Given your position, you might simply have to expect to overpay some in any deal given the way teams are likely to work with you.
Again, I don't think either of you are unreasonable, but if 1) you have the best roster and 2) you generally win trades, it's going to be hard for you to get what looks like an even exchange on paper.
Craig (San Bernadino, CA): Dinelson Lamet is off to a good start, please tell me he's in the Padres rotation mid-season.
Eric Roseberry: I don't see any reason why he can't be. It's fairly obvious that a number of starters in the Padres rotation are just eating innings at this point, and in no way are they long term solutions. I spoke with Padres writer Joe Lanek about this, and he felt like the prospects of seeing Lamet in the majors this season were high.
Jquinton82 (NY): Reports of Otani want to come stateside for next season.... chances it happens are...?
Eric Roseberry: If his recent public comments are any indication, I'd say the chances are pretty high. He seems determined to get to the majors sooner rather than later. Personally, I'd place the chances somewhere near 70-80 percent. It's far from a done deal, but if he wants to be here (and owners definitely want him hear) it's going to happen sooner rather than later.
Colin (DC): What are the odds that Glasnow becomes a pen arm? 50% at this point? Greater?
Eric Roseberry: I think it's far too soon to make that conclusion. Jonathan Mayo recently did a poll of MLB GMs who still saw Glasnow as a top-three pitching prospect. The Pirates are going to give him every opportunity to stick as a starter, and it's unlikely (to me) they would make that move in the next 2-3 years. I know his start against Cincinnati was brutal the other night, but the stuff is there. The control issues are still a major problem, but he's shown the ability to be an effective starter in the high-minors.
bb10kbb10k (Erie, PA): Rank'em for potential near-future upside to fill an OF4/Util spot in a 6x6 forever dynasty league (OPS): Heyward, Haniger, Carlos Gomez, Kiermaier.
Eric Roseberry: It's hard not to be excited about Haniger after his start to the season. For the short-term give me Haniger Gomez, Kiermaier, Heyward. I know he's had a brutal start, but I think Gomez still has the highest upside of anyone in this group. No one else has quite the power/speed combo that he can bring to the table if he's playing well (that's becoming an increasingly bigger if at this point). I might be the last person aboard the good ship Carlos Gomez in the end.
Brandon (Chicago): If you could get one baseball player on loan to play with the Pacers during the playoffs, who would you choose?
Eric Roseberry: This is a great question, and I can kill two "fandom" birds with one stone to answer it. Amir Garrett. He's not that far removed from playing high level basketball at St. John's, so if a worst case scenario occurred he could fill in if he had to. If this move would take him off of the Reds during the Pacers playoff run I might have a different answer. However, the Pacers "playoff run" isn't going to be more than a week anyway.
delatopia (The 415): Any great baseball fiction out there that most fans may not have heard of? It seems like most of the good stuff is centered on the minor leagues and the inherent struggles with trying to rise to the top of your profession, with the possible exception of Henry Wiggen's books with the Mammoths (Yankees). Many good literature also uses baseball merely as a vessel or metaphor for other themes, rendering the sport itself secondary. Just wonder if you have any feelings about this topic.
Eric Roseberry: I'll be honest, I don't know that I've read any baseball fiction since Matt Christopher. I'm assuming you've already read his seminal work "The Kid Who Only Hit Homers." While I might not be much help in this area, Patrick Dubuque recently did an entire chat on baseball books. I'd check it out. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=1398
Pat (Brooklyn ): Cup of coffee for Dom Smith this year, compete for starting gig next spring?
Eric Roseberry: If I'm not sure about the answer to a question, I go get the answer for you from a trusted source. I just talked with BP Mets Editor in Chief Kate Feldman who expected nothing more than a September call-up for Smith this season. However, she definitely sees him competing for a spot in 2018. Speaking of the BP local sites, they're doing some great work and you should go check them out!
Enhancement Talent (Parts Unknown): Who should be the first few picks in one's upcoming pro wrestling fantasy league?
Eric Roseberry: Let's get this out of the way early. Yes, I do play in a WWE fantasy league that is created and tracked by a group of some of the best baseball fans on the internet. One day when this is a huge think they'll probably do a 30 for 30 about how fantasy pro-wrestling got started. I can't wait to see that once this hits the big time. As to your question, in our format you have to place a priority on wrestlers who are going to appear often on TV, and that are likely to be in main event programs. My top 5 off of my head would be Roman Reigns, Kevin Owens, Finn Balor, Braun Stroman, and A.J. Styles (in no particular order).
NatsGM (DC): Are there a couple of players we should try to steal in fantasy leagues now? And who main events WrestleMania 2018?
Eric Roseberry: Two good questions. First, I recently snatched up Yulieski Gurriel in one of the BP fantasy leagues. Maybe I'm just trying to earn brownie points with Bret Sayre, but I also believe he's going to still provide some nice value this season. I know there are still a ton of question marks with Buxton, but you could probably get him as cheap as you ever will right now. Also, it's possible you could get someone to sell pretty low on Jose Bautista right now. As for Wrestlemania...I think we're looking at Lesnar vs. Reigns as a main event.
Peter (Champaign): What's your routine with reading all the great daily baseball content online? Do you bunch it in the morning, at lunch, before bed? I find it difficult to keep up with all of it.
Eric Roseberry: I wish I had a good answer to this question because I feel the same way. Typically I have a two hour block in the morning before work when I can do most of my reading/writing for the day. I have a pretty organized list in Feedly broken down by sites I enjoy, general baseball news, and my favorite writers in particular. I can catch most of the general news through podcasts, MLB Network, etc. so I really focus on authors I like or pieces that particularly interest me. At night I'm usually watching/listening to the Reds and then flipping between west coast games before bed. One of the other reasons I like Feedly is it bumps articles to the top that readers have particularly liked. Oh yeah, before you do any of that you should read everything up at BP on a given day.
Ryan (Montreal): Very un-sexy question, but in a 15 team dynasty league, do I drop Brad Miller for Mitch Moreland? Miller is my backup SS (Diaz) and also my backup 1B (Encarnacion).
Eric Roseberry: I like Miller's positional flexibility, and I'm confident he'll get things going eventually. However, if you're only worried about having a backup first baseman (and you can cover SS another way) then I'd go with Moreland.
NJM Punk (NJ): Who will have a better big league career: Shinsuke or Otani?
Eric Roseberry: Oh my goodness. This easily the most difficult question I've had to answer in this chat. The hype for Otani is huge, but I still can't imagine that an MLB team is going to use him as a two-way player. I expect him to have a very successful MLB career, but it's possible he never climbs in to the top-10 players in the game at any point in time (I know this is blasphemous to some). The only doubt I have with Shinsuke is that he's not going to be booked properly. However, he's already a star, and I have think he has a higher ceiling in this scenario.
Buddy (Peoria, IL): What do you see from Lucas Giolito this year?
Eric Roseberry: I expect him to be in the White Sox rotation at some point this season. Beyond that, you're guess is as good as mine. During his time in Triple A last season, he looked better as the season went on. I'd expect a similar pattern with his time at the major league level. His rough first outing for Charlotte probably didn't do much to diminish concerns about him. It's looking more and more likely like he'll settle into the role of a mid-rotation starter (if the control gets figured out). Worst case scenario Giolito has the stuff to be a solid bullpen piece in the future.
Ceej (Pittsburgh): The Rays slow roast their prospects, but does Honeywell make any impact this year?
Eric Roseberry: I wouldn't expect anything more than a September call-up. As you mentioned, Tampa usually takes their time with these things, and he spent half of last season in high A ball. If he pitches well the call to Triple A could come quicker than expected, but I wouldn't plan on any significant major league impact this season.
Harriet Birdstrom (Bama): I think Francisco Mejia will start for the Indians at catcher next year. Do you?
Eric Roseberry: Hmm. I think Mejia will make the majors in 2018, but I don't know how early that will happen. How he adjusts to handling Double and Triple A pitching will go a long way toward answering that question. Cleveland doesn't seem like they're going to rush him (service time issues and all), so I wouldn't expect to see him as the Opening Day catcher next season.
Accudart (Vermont): Luis Urias doesn't get much love..lack of power and older prospect? Do you see him becoming a top 30 prospect next year?
Eric Roseberry: I doubt you'll see Urias climb into top 30 consideration in a prospect list. He's gotten off to a bit of a slow start this season, and there really isn't a high ceiling tool in his profile. There are a few things he seems to do adequately well, but that's not typically the type of profile that makes someone a highly regarded prospect.
Ryan (Montreal): Will Foltyniewicz (sp?) ever figure it out? He gave us glimpses last year, but has already been used out of the bullpen this year. Is that where he eventually ends up?
Eric Roseberry: It's true that Foltynewicz's major league performances have been less than inspiring. However, I think it's much too early to give up on him as a productive starter. Given the options the Braves have available this season, it wouldn't surprise me if you see him used out of the pen at times this year (to keep his innings down). The long term plan is to have him as a regular in the rotation, and given that he's made fewer than 30 major league starts at this point...patience is still the key.
dianagram (VORGville): Any recent favorite fantasy team names?
Eric Roseberry: Delusions of Granderson is at the top of the list among owners I play against.
Ryan (Montreal): What is your opinion on streaming catchers all year? I have zero options there and am considering just playing the hot hand whenever I can.
Eric Roseberry: Depends on how your deep your league is. If you're in a shallow one catcher league, then you can probably still find someone who's going to be a solid regular options (compared to other available catchers). In deeper leagues, I don't think it's a bad idea as long as it's not so deep you could get shut out completely from the position.
Eric Roseberry: Well folks, we're about to hit the two hour mark and I've got a few kids to pick up from school. Thank you so much for participating today. I really enjoyed it! Don't forget, each week I'll have The Buyer's Guide available at BP on Monday mornings. Also, if you haven't checked out the On Baseball Writing podcast yet please do! Last thing, you can follow me on Twitter @ericroseberry. Everyone have a great day, and don't forget...the Reds are in first.
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