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Talk prospects with Jordan.
Jordan Gorosh: We're about 15 minutes from tip-off here, ladies and gents. Plenty of questions in the queue; let's get some more before game time!
Chris (Baltimore): Please rank the following for MLB contributions from 2015-2017. Shipley, Peraza, Harvey.
Jordan Gorosh: I like the order you have here. Shipley could see some big league time as soon as next year. Even though he hasn't been pitching that long, he's polished on the bump. Plus FB, MLB out pitch quality CH, and mlb avg curve. Has a command profile, too. Harvey has more upside, but I don't think he sees the majors before 2017. Long way to go, but the upside is immense.
Chris (Barley): How many MLB at bats for Buxton in 2015?
Jordan Gorosh: Really depends on the severity of the injury, and how quickly he progresses this year. He may not be back for awhile. Assuming health, he should be set to come up after the super two deadline in 2015.
pmitchell60 (NOLA): What is the true recovery timetable on Dylan Bundy? And do you see any other SPs getting an All-Star Break call up and making an impact fantasy-wise (Noah Syndergaard, Tyler Skaggs, Jameson Taillon, etc.)?
Jordan Gorosh: Is there a possibility that Bundy gets some big league innings, probably in a relief role this season? Sure. There's no reason to rush it, really. All depends on how he feels. It's more important that he's healthy in 2015 and beyond. Could make the case that he's the best pitching prospect in the minors.
Chone Figgins (Los Angeles): Joe Panik just called up. What do you expect from him? He never got the love Wong did, but seems he may become a better Wong.
Jordan Gorosh: I do enjoy a good Wong joke. However, Kolten is far more talented than Panik. Wong has the skills to be a first division 2B. Don't believe that's in the cards for Panik.
Juan Pierre (Cooperstown): DJ Peterson continues to mash but the reports on his glove seem dire. If he moves to LF does he progress through the ranks faster? 2015 espresso?
Jordan Gorosh: I'm actually quite a big fan of Peterson's bat. Not sold that he's athletic enough to play the OF, as he may be relegated to 1B. Just what the Mariners need, right? Peterson should be able to hit for average and power, even in that monstrosity of a ballpark.
Eck (Boston): Mookie is getting a lot of love and rightfully so given his play, but at this point he must be overrated. What do you see from him in 2015 if he's an ASB call up as a CF?
Jordan Gorosh: Mookie can hit, but I don't believe he's an elite level prospect. He's more likely a good first division player than a star. I don't think he's capable of playing CF every day. Would be surprised if he's still with Boston after the trade deadline; will be a hot trade commodity.
Not Donald Sterling (Los Angeles): Keep hearing that Julio Urias doesn't have much projection left. Does that really mean a 17yo has little room for improvement left?
Jordan Gorosh: When I see that, I cringe. He doesn't have physical projection, sure. However, the arsenal has room to improve, including the consistency and command profiles. It often bothers me that people think Urias is maxed out as a pitcher at 17. He's just extremely polished, and that's not necessarily a bad thing. In fact, it's an amazing thing. I'm not sure he has ace upside necessarily, but I'm firmly convinced he's top of the rotation material.
jake from state farm (state farm): how do you think the mets farm system will rank this offseason with the graduation of flores, d'arnaud as well as the possible graduation of Syndergaard later this summer
Jordan Gorosh: It's possible that they graduate their top four prospects. While the system may be technically be "down," that's a misnomer. The object is to graduate talent onto the big league team. It's going to take a step back in terms of the farm rankings, but U25 is more important.
MRubio52 (Washington DC): Did you ever get new pants?
Jordan Gorosh: I didn't. I did, however, think it was a good idea to put a BBQ sauce packet from McDonalds in my back pocket and sit down. Good choice. Highly recommended.
Derek (PA): Does Jesse Biddle ever figure out the control issues? It looked like early in the year he was fine, and now he seems to look just like last year. Can he ever be a good MLB pitcher with his control?
Jordan Gorosh: I've always been lower than most on Biddle. The stuff is relatively average, and I'm not a big fan of drop and drive guys in general. Biddle doesn't really have anything that misses major league bats. It's more of a "sum of its parts" type profile, and without a step forward in command, he's a back end starter at best, or even a swing man reliever.
Frank (CA): What do you think of Matt Olson? His batting average seems to be slowly climbing, and the OBP and SLG is definetely there. Next Adam Dunn? Or can he raise his BA as he grows like Gallo has?
Jordan Gorosh: I think it's a long swing and he's in the cal league, so I'm not too excited.
NatsGM (Washington DC): Handful of questions for you... How was the BP Event in DC as a whole? Do you have a favorite part or story from the weekend?
Also, what are your thoughts on Nick Castellanos season thus far and what do you see as his future slash line?
Finally, do you have a sleeper or two currently in the Detroit system?
Thanks-
Jordan Gorosh: I loved the event. It was truly excellent. I got to meet some outstanding people, including some members of the BP staff that I hadn't yet met in person. It was a great time, and I really appreciate you sponsoring the after party!
Castellanos' season, while unimpressive on paper, has made me more confident that he's going to be a damn good hitter. At the beginning of the year, he was swinging at everything, and only going to RCF with authority, as is his comfort zone. Then, pitchers adjusted, stopped throwing him strikes that he could handle, and he struggled. Since, he's readjusted, and started hitting the ball with authority to left and LCF. It's a game of adjustments, and Nick's showing that he can make them. I can see some .295/.350/.475 slash lines in his future. Kid can really hit.
Ace (PA): Could you describe your scouting process at a minor league game?
Jordan Gorosh: Absolutely. Depending on traffic, I try to get there for BP. The problem is that I work from home, and often have "real job" things to do until about 5:00, so unless it's a weekend game, I get there about 45 minutes before game time. I sit behind home plate, and typically have a camera with me. I often watch the first 4-5 innings from behind home plate. Then, I get up and walk around for 2-3 innings, often trying to film hitters/pitchers from open and closed angles. Behind home is the best place to view a game, but getting multiple angles often helps you see things that you miss from behind the screen.
padremurph (Los Angeles): Any updates on Franchy Cordero out of Eugene? He seems to be playing a little better in the first week.
Jordan Gorosh: Franchy has a gorgeous swing, but unfortunately, the approach left quite a bit to be desired. To be fair, he was overmatched in the MWL. He'll try again next year, and the talent is certainly there for him to succeed. He's really raw, and it was an aggressive assignment.
Harper Time? (Chucktown): How good can Kris Bryant be? Could possibly acquire Harper for him in a standard dynasty league. Is the fact that he could be 3B and healthy reason enough to keep him? Still expect Harper to be a monster and how much better than Bryant?
Jordan Gorosh: Harper is in my top 5 in fantasy, even with the injury concerns. Bret Sayre recently ranked Bryant at 65 in his top 500. The gap is pretty substantial.
Michael (TX): What are your thoughts on Teoscar Hernandez? He seems to be killing it in High A and could be a 5 tool prospect to man CF for years.
Jordan Gorosh: I wouldn't go that far. Hernandez may be a bit underrated in a system full of guys with huge upside. However, he's more of a second division guy or extra OF for me. Ron Shah has an eye-witness report on him right here: https://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=23529&mode=print#hitreport82
Paul (DC): Buxton's wrist injury. A career limiting catastrophe? A blip in the road? Somewhere in between?
Please let me know how far out on the ledge I should be stepping.
Jordan Gorosh: Wrist injuries are never good. However, it's better than a leg injury. Without being privy to the medical information, it's hard to make a judgment. However, his talent is still so prodigious, I don't believe this hurts him in a developmental sense, and he's still the best prospect in the minor leagues.
FantasyFrodo (Washington): Who's the better of these three prospects: Marco Gonzales, Jesse Winker, and Jose Berrios.
Does Gonzales get the edge over Berrios simply because he's more MLB ready?
Jordan Gorosh: Berrios has the most upside, but MLB time table comes into play here. I'd go Gonzales, Berrios, Winker. Gonzales' change up is one of the best in all of baseball, and will be an out pitch and bat misser at the big league level. Winker can hit, but I just wasn't blown away by the tools package. He's more of a 1st division guy with a solid average/plus hit tool and 4 other average ones than an impact star.
Tom (TX): Has Luke Jackson learned to throw more strikes this year and become the #2 starter we all thought he could be?
Jordan Gorosh: I don't think the upside is quite #2, however, he's one of the most underrated pitchers in the minors. The profile is more of a mid rotation guy for me, but the stuff is really good. He could have two plus pitches and an average one (FB, CH, CB respectively), and reports on the make up are extremely good. While his ceiling isn't quite as high as some of the big names on the minor league pitching radar nowadays, 190-200 innings with a 3.75 ERA is nothing to scoff at.
Paul (DC): Obligatory Javier Baez 'what the hell?' question.
Jordan Gorosh: Baez is a high risk, high reward profile. Of course, you're currently seeing the low end of the spectrum, but there's no reason to lose hope. Baez has franchise altering power, and assuming the hit tool can play average, he's going to be extremely valuable. There are certainly some questions about his approach, but I think the realistic slash line looks similar to Nelson Cruz. On the left side of the infield, that's outstanding.
Nick (Windsor): Hey Jordan, i was combing through some minor league stats this morning, i was very surprised to see D.J. Davis has only 7 stolen bases on the season. I know he has really struggled with the bat but this seems very low for someone that is supposed to have 70+ speed. Have you seen or heard anything on Davis this season?
Jordan Gorosh: I have actually seen Davis in person, and came away even more underwhelmed than other's reports indicate. He had virtually no approach at the plate, and poor awareness on the basepaths. His routes were decent in CF, although having big time speed doesn't hurt. I wouldn't bet on the tools actualizing in his particular case. I'd take Anthony Gose over him, who I don't think will ever hit, and that's not saying much.
Sam (ATL): Thoughts on Corey Seager? Any Chance he sticks at SS?
Jordan Gorosh: Seager is a large man. Like, he might be bigger than Carlos Correa. However, I do think there's a 50/50 shot he sticks at SS for 5+ years. He's someone who may jump into the top 15 prospects in the game by the middle of next year. He can flat out rake, the power is coming, and he's fluid in the field. I'm not sure how long he's going to stay there, but I do believe he makes his MLB debut at short.
Graham (Richmond, VA): How far back will Correa's injury push his big league debut? Does this push either Addison Russell or Francisco Lindor above him in terms of best SS prospect?
Jordan Gorosh: In terms of talent, he could play SS in the major leagues today. I'm sure of it. There are some who would take Lindor over Correa, but I don't think that has anything to do with the injury as much as Lindor himself. Russell is a downright impressive prospect, but he's a tier behind each of the other two.
Graham (Richmond, VA): Who are your personal top 5 prospects based on potential big league production 2015-17?
Jordan Gorosh: Buxton, Correa, Taveras, Lindor, Walker.
Chipper Jones' Chunky Friend (Rockford, IL): Nice start for Odrisamer Despaigne last night. Does he have enough to be successful in MLB?
Jordan Gorosh: It's a back end profile without any bat missing stuff. He's going to have to rely on sequencing and command. Last night, he threw an absurd amount of breaking stuff, although none of it is really all that special. He's a glorified junk baller who could have success logging a bunch of innings.
Harry (Decatur): Thanks for the chat, Jordan! It looks like Sean Manaea is struggling really badly (terrible WHIP around 1.700) especially away from the pitcher's paradise of Wilmington (5.00 ERA overall, 6.50 on the road). Is he missing the command of all his pitches, or just the non-fastballs?
Jordan Gorosh: Manaea is having trouble putting it all together, but I wouldn't pay attention to the stat line here. It's about development. Right now, there are two Sean Manaeas. One who is 89-92 with no command, a flat breaker, not much plane, and a lagging change. There's another who is 91-94 with an unhittable ghost FB, a crackling breaker, and a developing CH. Lately, the bad Manaea has been toeing the rubber, but the upside is still that of one of the best lefties in the game; the stuff can be downright filthy.
edwardarthur (Illinois): What do you make of Justin Nicolino's year in AA? The results are good, but <4 K/9, even with <1 BB/9, strikes me as worrisome for whether he's a big-league starter....
Jordan Gorosh: He's an interesting case, but ultimately, I believe in Miami's ability to develop pitching. He's going to be able to get righties out, especially with his excellent CH, and the command profile is really good. I understand it's difficult to work off a fastball that is below major league average, but if he can locate it, and use his CH frequently, there's no reason he can't be a back end starter a the major league level.
Bob (Grand Rapids): Has Dan Vogelbachs lack of power to this point this year hurt your expectations of him at all
Jordan Gorosh: Dan Vogelbach's limited athleticism, first base profile at best, and nowhere to play on the big league roster hurt my expectations.
Harry (Decatur): Thanks for chatting, Jordan! Before the year started, the BPro prospect list had Joey Gallo 95th and Mookie Betts unranked, but the Oliver Projection System had them both in the top 15. Similar story with Jesse Winker too. Should we just be scouting the stat lines, at least for position players?
Jordan Gorosh: No.
Ryan (SC): Can you ever have too much leg kick?
Jordan Gorosh: I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more leg kick.
The Truth (Caverns of Greatness): With the idiotic demotion of KG, especially when he was pitching very well and the mishandling of many 1st rd arms(by rushing them or poorly developing them altogether), how can anyone really be head-over-heels infatuated with Hunter Harvey in Baltimore? He's got the stuff, but there's something fundamentally wrong when the Orioles rotation doesn't contain 1 first-round arm in it's rotation.
Jordan Gorosh: Give me talent over situation and organization. The cream rises to the top. Even though, yes, I do agree that Baltimore has made some questionable decisions regarding plenty of their top pitchers, I'm not inclined to think Harvey is going to bust because he's in Baltimore. If Harvey doesn't work out, it's not likely to be because of the organization he plays for.
Clutchlings (Ontario): Depdending on the other parts of the package, would you include Daniel Norris in a deal for Samardzija ?
Jordan Gorosh: Absolutely. I'd let them pick any three guys they wanted other than Stroman.
dianagram (VORGville): Catching prospects ... timetable to bigs and realistic role: Swihart, Gary Sanchez, Alfaro ...
Thanks!
Jordan Gorosh: I don't believe Gary Sanchez is a catcher. 1B profile, and that dings him significantly. Swihart very well could be Boston's starting C in 2015. You could see Alfaro in 2016; he's taken a step forward with the glove.
Cris E (St Paul, MN): Since his suspension the Twins have been playing Eddie Rosario in CF as well as 2b. Have you heard any word on how he's looked? Clearly he'll never be Hicks or Buxton with the glove, but will he be good enough to take over the placeholder role in MN until Buxton is ready? Santana is fun to watch, but he's no CF either.
Jordan Gorosh: He's an OF all the way, but I'm not even a huge fan of the bat. It's kind of a tweener profile, and he may be relegated to a utility role.
Norris (Chicago): There have been glowing reports and not so glowing on Michael Lorenzen. His strikeouts don't seem to match the natural stuff; also there are reports of a curveball coming along. What have you seen/heard?
Jordan Gorosh: I've heard some excellent things about Lorenzen. He's new to starting, and was a two way player in college, so the fact he's even having success at the AA level is exciting. I don't believe he has bat missing stuff quite yet, but he's a supreme athlete with some feel for pitching. The profile is more of a mid rotation to good #4 type, but I like him quite a bit.
JoeRandom (San Jose): Any player you fought hard for to be included in the #BPtop50, but were vetoed?
Jordan Gorosh: Nope, but I fought for Clint Frazier to stay in the top 50, despite the struggles so far in the first 60 games. Spoiler: he's staying in.
John (Toronto): When do you think Archie Bradley gets the call and what do you project he will become?
Jordan Gorosh: It's all about fastball command for Bradley, as it usually is for guys with big, power stuff, but he has all of the ingredients to become a top of the rotation arm. The CH needs to take a step forward as well, but the velocity is easy, and he has a big time hammer. I like the profile, and see him as a good number 2 starter for quite some time.
Greg (Boston): Brady Aiken sneak into your top 50?
Jordan Gorosh: We didn't rank any recent draftees. However, he's got a good shot this offseason.
Chris (Washington, DC): What are your thoughts on Peter O'Brien? I have read very little about him, which is surprising considering his 25 home runs this season. Why isn't he getting the same prospect love as power hitters like Bryant and Gallo?
Jordan Gorosh: Because he doesn't really have a position and has a long, leveraged swing. Probably a bench bat or platoon masher.
Craig (CT): who is next years top HS player? Top pick in the 2015 draft?
Jordan Gorosh: Daz Cameron, Brendan Rodgers, Gregory Veliz come to mind. However, I do like Kyle Tucker quite a bit..
Steve (Phoenix): Any thoughts on Diamondbacks prospect Andrew Velazquez? Looks like he's had a great season. I know he's repeating a level, but he's still young for the league. The speed profile really stands out between the stolen bases and the triples.
Jordan Gorosh: He's not a burner, but is quick. I have plus times on him. I like the profile as a 2nd division SS or utility guy. He's a grinder, and his approach is advanced for a kid his age. He doesn't give away at bats, and plays the game hard. I wouldn't bet against him reaching the big leagues in some capacity, even though the profile isn't ultra sexy.
maikel franco (not philly): what's wrong with me and when will I make an mlb impact?
Jordan Gorosh: You don't have great barrel control, and are likely a first baseman. The approach leaves a lot to be desired. Even after the 30 homer year last year, I was never really sold on Franco as a prospect, and he's going to have to make quite a few adjustments to be an every day big leaguer; especially since he's so bat-dependent.
Norris (Chicago): Alberto Tirado is the classic whippy armed short season starter that has control issues....now he has been demoted to short season. How do you view him now?
Jordan Gorosh: About the same as I looked at him before the season started. The potential is there for a mid rotation starter, or even a tick better. However, he's struggled to locate in the zone at all, and the velocity is down a tick. His mechanics are out of whack, and he's really struggling to repeat. I'm a fan of the demotion; he needs to work on quite a few things.
Zack (Windsor): Josh Turley. Org guy or is there some upside there?
Jordan Gorosh: Org guy. LOOGY at best, but it's a fun profile. He's 86-89 and throws everything but the kitchen sink at you. FB, CB, SL, CH. He's also throwing a knuckler between 15-25% of the time. It's hard, too, like 76-80.
Graham (Richmond, VA): What's your opinion on Noah Syndergaard? Potential ace?
Jordan Gorosh: I don't think he ends up an ace, but like Thor quite a bit. He's in my top 3 for pitching prospects, and has the chance to throw upwards of 200 innings at a very high level, year in and year out.
Joe (Boston): Thanks for the chat! What type of offensive numbers can we expect from Blake Swihart? The Professor seems to be a big fan of him - what are your thoughts?
Jordan Gorosh: Lot of Swihart questions, so I'll try to knock em out. I like Swihart quite a bit, but he's a first division catcher, not a star, or even an impact guy. The reason he's ranked so high are because of his above average defensive prowess, great makeup, and proximity to the bigs. He has a chance to be a solid average hitter with solid average power and good D as a catcher. That's an excellent profile, but not a super high ceiling one.
Steve (Philly): What leagues/areas do you normally scout around? That way I can ask more on prospects you're familiar with.
Jordan Gorosh: I live in Chicago, and typically view midwest league games. I also took a trip to Florida this winter to watch the Tigers prospects play on the backfields, where I saw a low level Houston guys, and high level Washington/Toronto players, among others.
Mark (Oakland): Can you make the argument that with Singleton's promotion, Matt Olson is the best 1st base prospect in baseball?
Jordan Gorosh: I would advise against doing that.
arismendy alcantara (fuggin iowa): when am I going to replace Darwin barney and his Mendoza line in Chicago?
Jordan Gorosh: I'd guess within the next month. He's got some approach issues to iron out in his own right, but the super two deadline has passed, and it's time to see what you can do at the big league level. From what I understand, it's a bit crowded in the middle infield.
SK (Boston): Amed Rosario or Franklin Barreto?
Jordan Gorosh: Rosario. He's going to stick at SS, whereas Barreto is a CF long term. I like both guys quite a bit, but the early reports on Rosario are excellent.
Will (Dallas): Who's the prospect that's moved the most since beginning of the year and why is is Joey Gallo?
Jordan Gorosh: Joey Gallo is certainly the prospect who has made it move the most half way through the season. I'll give you that. He's actualizing his enormous raw power in the form of in game power, and that's hugely important. The approach has taken a step forward, and he's simplified his swing. I'm not sold that he'll stick in the infield, but even in RF, he's got a monster profile. However, he's going to have to make adjustments, and may have some trouble with arm side pitching at the highest level.
I also dislike the comparisons to Adam Dunn. I get the ultimate upside is that level, but let's not forget, Adam Dunn has a chance to hit 500+ home runs in his career; and I'd bet against Gallo ever reaching that many bombs, even with his improvement.
Zack (Windsor): Kevin Ziomek. Everytime I check the box scores for West Michigan, he seems to strike out alot of guys, limit the hits but the walks seem to be high from game to game. Is this an example of a guy whos stuff is just to good for the league? What do you ultimately see him as, and what does his repetoire consist of?
Jordan Gorosh: Like most of the WM rotation, he is too good for the league. However, I've soured a bit on him since the beginning of the year. His fastball velocity is too often 88-89 instead of 90-91, and the mechanics can get out of whack. He has trouble repeating his arm slot, and the breaking ball isn't a true out pitch. At peak, he may have three big league average pitches, but it's going to hinge on fastball command.
robarge00 (vermont): Who see's the majors first, Sims or Stewart?
Jordan Gorosh: Stewart. The ultimate upside is higher, he's more polished, and I don't think he runs into much trouble until he hits the major leagues.
John (Toronto): What have you seen out of Tijuan Walker and where would you rank him out of all the pitching prospects? Also, what would be the reason he hasn't gotten the call up yet since it seems he's healthy and was almost assured a rotation spot out of spring training?
Jordan Gorosh: I love Taijuan Walker. He's got all of the ingredients to be an ace. His cutter can be an elite pitch, not to mention his plus, plus fastball and potential plus CB. The advent of the CH is going to determine whether or not he's one of the games best, or just really good. I think he'll be up soon, though.
David (Malibu): I know you've seen Kane County some this year. How optimistic should Cub fans be on Tseng, Blackburn, Torrez, and Underwood?
Jordan Gorosh: Tseng is the best pitching prospect in the Cubs organization, above Pierce Johnson for me. He features a 91-94 MPH fastball with plus command projection, and two solid average secondary offerings in a true curveball and change up. He's extremely polished for a 19 year old kid, and could be a low 3, high 4 type.
Blackburn I've seen a few times, and have come away underwhelmed. The FB works mostly in the 89-91 range, and I don't see much velo projection left, as the arm isn't very quick. The pitch flattens when it's elevated, and he's more of a sinker baller He has a curve that projects to be around average, but it's not a bat misser. The delivery is simple and repeatable, but he looks to be more of a command/control back of the rotation guy.
Shawnykid23 (CT): Which side of the JP Crawford vs. Tim Anderson debate to you fall on?
Jordan Gorosh: I really, really like Anderson. He's got strong wrists and hands, plus bat speed, and outstanding athleticism. But, he's really raw. I don't believe he's going to stick at SS; in fact, he may not even be a SS as soon as next season. The actions aren't that of a SS, and he'll likely be a CF long term.
Crawford's upside isn't quite as high, but he can hit, and the approach is advanced. Anderson is late to the game as a baseball prospect, and Crawford has had many more reps throughout his life. Crawford looks to be able to stick at SS, with smooth hands and good athleticism in his own right, and for that reason, I'd rather have him.
Steve (Los Angeles): Everything I read about Lucas Giolito makes him seem like the next Nolan Ryan. I know the risk is high with TJ on the resume, but if it all clicks, how high is this ceiling really? Are there any current comps or is his ceiling higher than what we're seeing in the big leagues right now?
Jordan Gorosh: I've had a scout tell me that Giolito's floor is out of baseball in five years due to arm problems, and his ceiling is Cooperstown. Do with that what you will.
SK (Boston): Good to see Vaughn Bryan holding his own in the MWL. I know Parks loves him and had him as the #10 prospect in the STL organization. What are your thoughts on him?
Jordan Gorosh: Bryan is an explosive athlete, although really raw at both the plate, and in the field as well. The Cardinals are working him in at RF, although I do believe he has the tools to handle CF long term. He can really run. He's a bit slappy from the left side at the plate, and it does concern me that's where most of his at bats are going to come from. However, he may grow into a bit of power, and with plus, plus athleticism, could blossom into a starting CF down the line.
TheBox (wisconsin): Clint Coulter has really had a nice year so far in Wisconsin. I believe he is young for the level...are you a believer or not and if so, where might his bat get him ranked?
Jordan Gorosh: The swing is a bit long, and he's struggled to catch up to premium velocity, but he's got a good approach, and certainly some pop in the bat. It's going to be a struggle for him to stick behind the dish, although he has made strides forward. I don't know what other positions they may attempt to play him, but the bat is the carrying tool here, and he could end up a plus hitter with plus power if everything comes together.
OrioleDog (MD): The current Gausman demotion is just roster management. He's back for Friday's DH and has four turns prior to ASB, regardless of whether he stayed on the 25-man this past week. Assuming KG graduates, is Harvey or Bundy O's #1 prospect this year?
Jordan Gorosh: I understand the Gausman demotion was done to create a space on the roster. That doesn't change the way he's been handled, and the way that other Orioles pitchers have been handled in the last five years.
Bundy, assuming he's still eligible, is two tiers above Harvey. That's not a knock on Harvey.
SK (Boston): What has happened to Erik Johnson?
Jordan Gorosh: FB velo has dropped and the SL has lost some bite. He's working in the high 80s, which is really difficult for a RHP to do. I'm a fan of Johnson as a back end starter, assuming the velocity comes back.
Graham (Richmond, VA): Could Brady Aiken really be the best LHP prospect currently?
Jordan Gorosh: It's close, but Urias is a step above. Each are outstanding, but Urias is a bit more proven at this point.
Jon (Kansas City): What are your thoughts on Adalberto Mondesi's hitting?
Jordan Gorosh: Considering he's the age of plenty of GCL players, and is currently flashing a plus, plus glove in A+, I'm not too concerned. He has a decent approach, although it isn't showing up in the walk column quite yet. The bat may take a bit longer to manifest, as the glove is clearly the carrying tool.
John (CT): Garin Cecchini is still considered a top Bosox prospect but he is having a very dull season in Triple A. Is this an adjustment period?
Jordan Gorosh: Yeah, it's a bit of an adjustment period. Not sold that he sticks at 3B in an every day capacity, and that hinders his ability to be a true impact level talent. The OBP skills are certainly evident, but he's shown the ability to make adjustments, and will be a major league contributor.
Russ (Minnesota): What kind of Potential does Nick Gordon have?
Jordan Gorosh: Nick Gordon looks to be an every day SS at the major league level, and I actually had a scout compare his skillset to that of Steven Drew. He's a consummate pro with good makeup, chops to stick at SS, with the ability to play the position at a plus level, and may end up with a solid average hit tool and average big league power. He's likely a "50/55's across the board" type, as opposed to anything impact.
Shawn (Cubicle): You can give any prospect in the minors the 1 tool that will make all of his other tools play up- who is the player and what is the tool?
Jordan Gorosh: It's the hit tool. The hit tool allows all of the other tools to play and manifest.
Graham (Richmond, VA): I know it can't be exact, but if you had to guess, what percentage of the BP midseason 50 list will become All-Stars?
Jordan Gorosh: Probably somewhere between 98% and 100%.
SK (Boston): Think Rangel Ravelo will ever start hitting for power? If he does, is he one of the best 1B prospects in the minors?
Jordan Gorosh: I doubt it. There's some raw there, but it's likely more of a fringy power game. At his absolute peak, he's Yonder Alonso. Not really much to write home about.
Cal Guy (Cal): Jordan, Do you think the Twins will just move Sano to 1B rather than risk reinjuring his arm by playing him at 3B?
Jordan Gorosh: Absolutely not. Throwing from 3B and being a pitcher are two completely different situations. If Sano moves off 3B, it's not because of an arm issue. Plenty of scouts think he's got the chops to stick there, especially after last year's improvement. His offense may make up for some of his defensive deficiencies.
Chris (Colorado): Tapia or Dahl long term?
Jordan Gorosh: Give me Dahl. I think the pure hit tool edge may go to Tapia, just in terms of getting bat to ball, but Dahl's approach is more sound, and I think his power may play more. Dahl also is more likely to stick in the center of the diamond defensively. I think his tools play better at the highest level.
Mario66 (Pittsburgh): Can Kennys Vargas be a big league regular, or is he another data point with Calvin Pickering, Kyle Blanks and Walter Young against Very Large Men?
Jordan Gorosh: I'd wager against Vargas working out, but you didn't include Steven Moya (worlds largest human) and Juan Duran. Very upsetting.
BZ (The Road): Will ChiChi Gonzalez make the top 50 list?
Jordan Gorosh: Spoiler: yes. Chi-Chi is a BP favorite, because he's got pitching aptitude, and the ability to throw three pitches for strikes. He's got a low 90s FB that he can run, cut, and sink, and the slider misses bats. The CH looks to be major league average. It's an excellent profile, and one that should be in Texas sooner rather than later.
Zack (Windsor): I read the splits you showed on Jake Thompson the other day. Dominant against righties with the FB/SL and you say he needs to work on tne change to become effective vs lefties. How would you rate all of his pitches? Whats his ceiling? ETA?
Jordan Gorosh: He's absolutely destroying RHB, and that's not a surprise, the SL is too good for low minors hitters, and the CB is nothing to sneeze at as well. I actually posted an eye witness scouting report on Thompson here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=23504
As you can see, I like him quite a bit.
jlarsen (Suburbia): What changes have to be implemented for a MLB-sanctioned "World Draft" to occur and will New York's upcoming pissing on the CBA rules be the catalyst for ramping up these changes?
Jordan Gorosh: I don't think it's plausible. Among various other hurdles, scouts are already stretched thin enough as it is. No way for cross checkers and GMs to fly all over the world, especially with so many pop up guys during their draft years.
Barry (Tampa): How long can Andrew Toles be held out of game action just because his manager didn't think he hustled enough? I see no report of an injury, and it just seems like he's been on the bench for a month and wasting valuable developmental time over something petty.
Jordan Gorosh: I believe it had to do something with a "Willy Mays Hayes" type catch. However, the organization believes they're teaching him a lesson. To be fair, he's a long shot type prospect anyway.
Ryan (Colorado): Adalberto Mondesi - a top 5 ss ever?
Jordan Gorosh: He will be one of the top 5 Adalberto's of all time #adalberto
Graham (Richmond, VA): Which team will have the best starting rotation in 2017?
Jordan Gorosh: At this rate, any team with five healthy pitchers.
Harry (Decatur): Assuming each team inks their draftees (top 10 rounds anyway), what are the current elite farm systems? With the struggles of Almora & Baez, and the injuries to Edwards & Soler, are the Cubs top 5 anymore...or more like 7-10 range? Thanks, Jordan!
Jordan Gorosh: Cubs are still firmly elite, as long as Bryant and Baez are in the system. Twins, Pirates, and Astros systems are also elite, and filled with talent. Plenty of depth in all three of those.
SK (Boston): Is Raul A. Mondesi overrated? I understand he's always been young for his level, but the stats have underwhelmed for a few years now.
Jordan Gorosh: When you're thinking of looking at statistics for a 19 year old in High-A to determine their big league future, don't.
Okay, guys, I've got a few more before I'm going to run.
bubbledachimp (dc): kris bryant legit 80 power? His oppo stroke is amazing.
Jordan Gorosh: 80 is a stretch, but I don't think 70 is out of the question. I think he's going to be a special bat at the major league level. Whether or not he plays 3B, he's got impact level talent.
bzalaski (Madison, WI): How would you rank Aaron Sanchez, Jose Berrios, Lucas Sims, ChiChi Gonzales, & Marco Gonzales as prospects?
Jordan Gorosh: Chi Chi, Gonzales, Sanchez, Berrios, Sims. I've been the low man on Sanchez for quite some time. I don't think the command profile ever comes around, and he's never gotten outs past the 5th inning. In fact, he hasn't even thrown 100 innings in a season yet. It's hard to project how someone is going to turn a lineup over when they've never pitched tired.
Jordan Gorosh: All right everyone. Thanks so much for chatting with me. Hope to do this again soon!
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