|
Join members of our prospect team as they analyze the draft AS SOON AS IT HAPPENS IN REAL LIFE.
Live Draft Chat: Hello all! Welcome to Baseball Prospectus Live Chat! We will have a lot of our prospect team joining us!
Also, Christopher Crawford will be doing a live analysis and writeups that you can follow here. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=29480
Larry (NC): Who is the first player we see from this draft class to the major leagues?
Live Draft Chat: I'll say Zack Burdi, Louisville's closer. Better raw stuff than any college reliever this year, or last. Contending teams have been scouting him heavily and flirting with the idea.
Larry (NC): Who is the first player we see from this draft class to the major leagues?
Live Draft Chat: I'll say Zack Burdi, Louisville's closer. Better raw stuff than any college reliever this year, or last. Contending teams have been scouting him heavily and flirting with the idea.
-AM
Philip (San Diego ): Hear any recent rumors?
Live Draft Chat: I have strong sources suggesting that OF Mickey Moniak is going to the Phillies 1-1. -SG
Kyle (Atlanta): What are the chances Jason Groome really does fall to 40? Seems like a lot of wasted opportunity for a lot of teams to pass up.
Live Draft Chat: I honestly don't see it happening, while he can blow up a draft budget for teams, the talent is too much to pass up IMO. -SG
patrickbrewer93 (San Diego): Who is the likeliest fit at #8 for the Padres at this point? Could they go below slot to make a bigger splash at 24/25? Heard a lot about Quantrill.
Live Draft Chat: Everything on the Padres has been prep talent. But with rumors of Cal, and then with the possible fall of Perez to the mid 20s where they pick they could go any which way. Think thats the floor for Groome if he goes into free fall. GJ
hailstate (Starkvegas, MS): Whats your protection for Dakota Hudson in the draft, and what club do you feel is the best fit for his career?
Live Draft Chat: Hudson could crack the top 10, and he won't get much further than that at lowest. It would be a surprise if any other college righty went off the board higher than him.
A team with a track record of developing starting pitching would be a good fit. He has a chance to miss bats with a fastball, cutter, and slider, even in a starting role. Repeating his delivery and getting more consistent with his control are what needs to come on for him to fill his ceiling as a number three starter. You want to give him the chance to start, but there's a bullpen fallback if he doesn't add more refinement. He's worked as a reliever prior to this season.
-Adam McInturff
Truganini (CO): Riley Pint to the Rockies? I feel like this organization is all in on high fastball usage guys given the altitude's impact on breaking balls. Would you have take Groome if you were the Rockies?
Live Draft Chat: I think it's an interesting choice. I know there are plenty of great bats still out there (was going to shout out Corey Ray, but there we go), but the breaking ball could be a novel kind of weapon for Colorado. Some scouts have put a plus on it, and it's been termed a knuckle-slider. Not saying it can single-handedly solve the Coors problem, but it could have factored in on why the Rockies drafted him. -Will Haines
Truganini (CO): Riley Pint to the Rockies? I feel like this organization is all in on high fastball usage guys given the altitude's impact on breaking balls. Would you have take Groome if you were the Rockies?
Live Draft Chat: The supposed asking price on Jason Groome has gone through the roof right now, but like I suggested earlier it is a tough talent to pass up. -SG
Ian (Oakland): How excited should I be about AJ Puk????
Live Draft Chat: Stoked. I saw Puk upwards of 5 times this season, and wrote him up in a Monday Morning 10 Pack. Polished, but plenty of ceiling left. - WH
To piggy back on Will; 7 Fastball, 7 Slider. Change and ability to throw strikes will determine ceiling. JF
Ian (Oakland): How excited should I be about AJ Puk????
Live Draft Chat: The stuff is LOUD, he looks the part, he has a high floor as a reliever? One thing that always stood out was that he RARELY ever went past 5 innings while his teammates Logan Shore and Alex Faedo routinely went 7+. It could be a durability issue, it could be because his control was so poor that his pitch count killed him by the 5th inning. Not a red flag, but a concern none the less. -SG
Peter (SD): Cal Quantrill? Seems like a reach no?
Live Draft Chat: Not really. The Padres must be comfortable with the medicals and are betting on the stuff returning. Could be an under slot agreement here as well with the two remaining picks this round. - James Fisher
One thing to consider, the recent successes of Jeff Hoffman and Lucas Giolito since they have come off TJ I think played into this. Both of those players could have been 1-1 guys, but fell because of those TJ and health concerns. I think if you could go back to those drafts, those two players would've gone much much higher. -SG
Donald Baseball (Alabama): What type of ceiling do you see from Braxton Garrett?
Live Draft Chat: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VratSapBF4
I saw Garrett at the USA Baseball National High School Invitational, where he probably began his ascent into the upper-echelons of the draft this year. He dueled Zach Hess, a pitching prospect from Liberty Christian (VA) and showed polish and a full mix of stuff. He stayed strong down the stretch this spring, and scouts see the ceiling of a mid-rotation left-handed starter. He doesn't have the size of the other top prep lefty in this class, Jason Groome, and he doesn't have the velocity of the two high school arms drafted so far (Pint, Ian Anderson). That said, he's got a very high floor and looks like he can hit the ground running in professional baseball. He looks like a reliable regular starting pitcher, with a solid-average mix of stuff he fills the zone with.
StumptownDave (Portland, Or.): Any thoughts on where T.J. Zeuch is going to land?
Live Draft Chat: I would be surprised if he went before the late teens. Think that he could go in the 20s as well. I haven't seen him as good as some, but he's a XXL frame with late-developing control over a fastball that gets to the mid-90s and an at-least average breaking ball. I think there are some other college arms to come off the board before Zeuch, though. At least for me.
-Adam McInturff
Truganini (CO): What team is the worst at developing pitchers? The Indians system has a lot of hype, but the pitchers they have taken in the top 90 since 2002 have combined for only 3.2 WAR in an Indians uniform (excluding the 6.1 WAR they got from trading Pomeranz/White for Ubaldo). The list is depressing: Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Solcum, Adam Miller, Jeremy Sowers, Justin Hoyman, Scott Lewis, David Huff, Steven Wright (traded for Lars Anderson), Trey Haley, Alex White, Drew Pomeranz, Dillon Howard, Mitch Brown, Dace Kime...are you as depressed as I am yet? No? How about the fact only Sowers and Huff had at least 1 career WAR for the Indians, making them probably the 2nd or 3rd best in a group of 14 picks.
Live Draft Chat: I wouldn't say there are specific teams that you know are bad at developing pitchers but there are some concerns. Seeems like Baltimore has had some recent bad luck with Dylan Bundy, Hunter Harvey, and Kevin Gausman just to name a few. Obviously Colorado has had its own troubles with Tyler Anderson, Tyler Matzek, Mike Nikorak (at least right now), Drew Pomeranz, Christian Friedrich, and Peter Tago. -SG
PompeyCanuck (Ottawa): With Collins going to the White Sox, will he join the big club this week? or next week?
Live Draft Chat: Collins' bat could move very quickly, but catchers take longer in general--and presumably you want to run him out there at catcher if he's your first pick, where his offensive upside gives him the most value. He'll need time to see if he'll hack it defensively behind the dish at the big league level.
If he's really mashing, maybe they move him off. The bat has some special moments in terms of its easy power.
Brad Rays (Chattanooga): Please tell me Kyle Lewis reaches the Rays at 13.....
Live Draft Chat: Close, but not cigar.
Wally (DC): What's your prediction for the best guy that falls to the back of the first round (and signs)
Live Draft Chat: If Buddy Reed hits it is definitely him. Besides him I think Joey Wentz could be a DUDE down the road. Hasn't been pitching that long (was actually a really good hitting prospect earlier in life) but has loads of potential. Checks a lot of boxes in what you want to see out of your 1st rounder. -SG
nkunke1 (Baton Rouge): I know there are price tag concerns with Groome, but does that necessarily imply signability concerns as well? How far would he have to drop for him not to sign and play a year of JUCO instead?
Live Draft Chat: There are some other questions concerning his readiness for professional baseball. Something that could trip teams up--presuming Groome keeps falling--is that they weren't that prepared for Groome to fall to them.
It's too early to say he has fallen completely. We will have to get past the teams with numerous picks between 20-40 to make sure this is fully a 'draft day free-fall' and not a Daz Cameron-esque situation where someone is trying to walk him to one of their other picks later tonight for big money.
-Adam McInturff
BoSox Bobby (Boston): Good timing, saying to wait on Groome and then he immediately gets picked.
Where do you see him ranking alongside Boston's other top prospects?
Live Draft Chat: Yeah, I feel like I hit 'Submit Answer' right as Groome's name came across...
I love Groome in Boston's system, which has both depth and impact. I don't think he ranks ahead of Moncada or Benintendi right now, though I would give him the nod over Devers. I think you would have to think long and hard about Groome vs. Anderson Espinoza, though Groome would probably win out with many evaluators over Michael Kopech.
Moncada, Benintendi, Groome, Espinoza, Kopech is how I would line it up. And that's a great five.
BoSox Bobby (Boston): Good timing, saying to wait on Groome and then he immediately gets picked.
Where do you see him ranking alongside Boston's other top prospects?
Live Draft Chat: Depending on who graduates, maybe 3rd/4th. Which is embarrassingly rich for them. -SG
gatorgolf24 (Florida): Rays - Rutherford or Lopez?
Live Draft Chat: Neither--they just drafted Josh Lowe, the projectable, pro-framed 3B from a Georgia HS. He has big left-handed raw power and a strong arm. He's going to get even bigger across his upper-half, and the ceiling of a solid everyday contributor at the hot corner kept him in the conversation to go in the teens all Spring. #13 overall is a little earlier than I was expecting--though Gavin Lux seemed to be the consensus pick here, and frankly I think Lowe is more what you expect going this early in the draft in terms of his body and tools.
-Adam McInturff
Chad (Tacoma): is Kyle Lewis the Mariners top prospect right now?
Live Draft Chat: I think so. Edwin Diaz moved to the 'pen a little quicker than some expected, though I saw a guy who would have better value in the 'pen at the Futures Game last year. He's got more athleticism and speed than Alex Jackson, and a higher overall ceiling than Drew Jackson and Tyler O'Neil.
Wally (DC): Given how the Board is shaking out, who do the Yanks pop?
Live Draft Chat: Will Craig will be there for the taking if that's really who they want.
Wally (DC): Given how the Board is shaking out, who do the Yanks pop?
Live Draft Chat: Tough to pass up Dakota Hudson, although I think Eric Lauer and Forrest Whitley could also be in play. -SG
AkronRubberDuck (Ohio): How does Benson impact the Indians' system?
Live Draft Chat: Hes unfortunately the third best OF prospect in his own organization, but thats just because the two guys above him are really good. -SG
AkronRubberDuck (Ohio): How does Benson impact the Indians' system?
Live Draft Chat: I've been very vocal this year about how impressive the depth in Cleveland's system is, in terms of how many lesser-known guys seem to do something that catches your eye every night at the affiliates of theirs that I frequently see (Lynchburg, Akron).
Benson joins Bradley Zimmer and Clint Frazier as another big-name outfield prospect in the Tribe's system. I think the depth affords Cleveland the opportunity to be more comfortable putting their first of three early picks on a risk/reward player.
-Adam McInturff
AstrosFan (Texas): Thoughts on Whitley to Houston at #17? Was there lots of talk about him being an option for the Astros?
Live Draft Chat: The industry consensus was a college arm at #17 but Whitley was always linked to them because of the Texas connection. Whitley's stuff isn't far off from Pint and at times showed more pitchability.
James Fisher
Hank (Kansas): Who are some big league starters that remind you of Justin Dunn? Do you think he could be a starter?
Live Draft Chat: In terms of size, pretty close to Tim Hudson. In regards to stuff maybe Carlos Carrasco? Has to get bigger and add weight to stay in the rotation long-term. -SG
Hank (Kansas): Who are some big league starters that remind you of Justin Dunn? Do you think he could be a starter?
Live Draft Chat: The Mets just took Justin Dunn at 19, with Blake Rutherford (who they reportedly had a deal with) selected ahead of them.
I do think Dunn has a chance to start, even though there isn't tons of track record--he moved into the BC Eagles' rotation in the middle of the year, after working as a closer prior. He has a fairly clean operation mechanically, with the athleticism to shore up some aspects of his delivery that can detract from his command presently. He has shown the control of his slider and developing changeup that he will begin his pro career as a starter, and might not just be a guy who has to throw his fastball in hitter's counts. I do think he can start, and his size, arm-speed, stuff, and athleticism have some Yordano Ventura in them, to me.
-Adam McInturff
John (Texas): A lot of college arms still on the board, are they that bad? Or is it a case of the other positions are that much better?
Live Draft Chat: I wouldn't go with bad. This is just a case of teams going with ceiling over floor and most college pitchers are higher floor guys rather than higher ceiling guys.
James Fisher
Wally (DC): I feel suspicious of pitchers > than 6'5". It just seems like so many can't get it all together to Be effective at the major league level. There must have been a bunch of studies on pitcher height, right? Is that just an ignorant feeling on my part, or is there some data about the number of drafter pitchers 6'6" or higher and the % that become successful?
Live Draft Chat: Speaking of pitchers taller than 6'5, 6'7" T.J. Zeuch taken 21st by Toronto.
A while back Kevin Goldstein did a study on this (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8122)
In terms of more recent research I would read this SABR study from 2010.
http://sabr.org/research/does-pitcher-s-height-matter
-SG
Zeuch? (Pittsburgh): Would you guys put any college arms still remaining at 22 above TJ Zeuch?
Live Draft Chat: I have Dakota Hudson above Zeuch on my list, Jordan Sheffield too. I think an argument could be made for Robert Tyler being on par with Zeuch, if not above because he has a secondary pitch that can miss bats right now, even if it isn't a breaking ball.
-Adam McInturff
I would throw Cody Sedlock into consideration as well.
James Fisher
Danny (Denver): Any names at all that could be around at 67 for KC?
Live Draft Chat: Seems to be rather early to start guessing guys considering where we are in the draft right now. -SG
Logan (SD): Who is Hudson Sanchez? Should I be excited about him?
Live Draft Chat: Hudson Sanchez is a Texas high schooler who has excited area scouts since as early as this time last year. Less known on the national scene, Sanchez still did get some exposure last summer on the circuit, playing for the Rangers Area Code team in Long Beach.
He's a young hitter for the class, which is a positive. He's currently a shortstop, though his 6-foot-2 frame already carries some muscular width and profiles better at 3B. It's enthusing, though, he's agile enough to play SS now, and he should be able to stay on the left side of the infield.
He has strength in his swing now with doubles power in games, and flashes of raw power in BP.The hope is he will continue to get bigger and stronger, and add loft to his swing with professional coaching. Sanchez likely wasn't the 20-something best player on everyone's board, but San Diego isn't alone in admiring the raw tools of an everyday third baseman--and might discount Sanchez to allocate money elsewhere in a draft with many picks.
-Adam McInturff
Timmy (Chicago): Can you explain why Harold Reynolds is part of this MLB Draft coverage? What is he adding?
Live Draft Chat: I love this question. Can't tell you for sure, but every great broadcast needs some comic relief - intentional or not. -WH
Truganini (Co): Did the Cardinals just get the steal of the draft?
Live Draft Chat: Not sure that "Steal of the draft" the night of the draft, is a thing. But the Cardinals definitely took the best player on the board, regardless of issues. Perez was a top ten player by every ranking, and the fact he has no college commitment means his leverage is low and Cardinals won't have to go very overslot, if at all.
kufflerj (Philly): Now that Rutherford and Perez are - alas - off the board, what overslot guy should a Phillies fan be hoping for in round 2? Did taking Moniak backfire?
Live Draft Chat: I highly doubted either of them were going to be there at 42, just too talented and too much of an opportunity for teams to pass. A lot of these HS players are still on the board so a lot of guys are still in consideration such as Taylor Trammel, Drew Mendoza, and Bo Bichette. -SG
Ron (Texarkana): Does Kevin Maitan go 1:1 if eligible tonight? Is he that far ahead of everyone else being drafted?
Live Draft Chat: I think he's at least in the conversation. Predicting 1:1 is tough to do (as we've seen) and there's still so much volatility despite the upside. Anyways, I'd take him with the top pick, but no one should trust me with that responsibility. -WH
MonkeyEpoxy (TX): is Carl Ragans gonna pitchability himself to awesomeness?
Live Draft Chat: It's enthusing to see a tall-bodied high schooler able to stay in his delivery enough for 'right now' strikes. I think there's a chance the stuff can take a tick up here. Very young frame with lots of physical growth remaining.
-Adam McInturff
I talked about Cole Ragans earlier this year here. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=29031 -SG
Mark (Springfield): What's a Dylan Carlson?
Live Draft Chat: Very projectable frame with natural size and chance for power. Type of guy who has a lot of hitting tools and checks boxes on the 'hitting checklist' scouts' have. Carlson has a good base of power and frame to build from, and the Cardinals were higher on him than the consensus given the player they see with a few years of projection. It's important to mention he's very young for the class, an enthusing sign given that he's an upside/projection draft.
-Adam McInturff
We Drafted the Next Mike Trout (TINSTAPPland ): I like getting new players under the age of 21. Why do people get so hung up on picks the night of the draft?
Live Draft Chat: I can't presume to answer for the entirety of baseball and its fans, but I would venture to say it is opinion validation. People want evidence that their team/rooting interests are accurate, for good or bad, and the draft is a bit of a raw target. If their team's GM/front office is bad in one's mind, any pick they make is deemed to be evidence of being cheap or poor evaluators. If they root for a great team/front office, the draft shows their savvy and superior abilities.
Truth is that the only real assessment that can be made of a draft in real time is aggressiveness and ambition; that is to say, did a team take a subjectively aggressive approach, yes/no? I think this is a fair assessment to make, but it isn't a final judgment by any means. Every team is more than likely to draft a major leaguer in the next 3 days and we'll know who did the best job of that in a couple of years. By that time, enough scouts and executives will have moved around that holding any one person's feet to the fire will be moot. - ah
Frank (Denver): So, Denver with another power arm...do they have it figured out now?
Live Draft Chat: You could argue that Colorado took the two best FB's in the draft with Riley Pint and Robert Tyler. Both of them can run it up there WITH PLUS MOVEMENT. Both guys have size and present FB velo, neither of which you can teach. While Tyler is more than likely a reliever he could be a quick riser. -SG
Bulldog Rockie (ColorAthens): What is the highest outcome for Robert Tyler? What's his floor?
Live Draft Chat: Highest outcome? Slider turns into a avg-abv avg pitch and becomes a 2/3 guy. In terms of size and stuff he is almost a carbon copy of Michael Wacha when he came out of the draft. Both were massive dudes with FB/CH combo and lacking a BB.
More than likely Tyler's floor is a late-inning reliever, and one that will be pretty damn good. -SG
Bulldog Rockie (ColorAthens): What is the highest outcome for Robert Tyler? What's his floor?
Live Draft Chat: I'm admittedly higher on Robert Tyler than most. When he's throwing strikes--and he pounded the zone, at least early in the Spring--his plus fastball and hard splitter both can miss bats. A quick aside, in Tyler's favor: I often wonder why so many 60s are put on changeups from right-handed starters who throw in the low-90s. Unless it is really a nasty fader, or really a "bugs bunny", as the saying goes, even well-sold changeups don't miss a lot of bats without velocity at the MLB level. Luckily, Tyler throws plenty hard, and as such I think his polished split-like changeup gives him another 60 pitch.
The knock on Tyler is his ability to spin a breaking ball, and if that will even get to average. As an underclassman and on the Cape, it was a below-average pitch. Another question is how much his demonstrations of control this year were for real, and how those will hold up pitching every fifth day. So long as he can throw plenty of strikes with his FB and CH while getting ahead of hitters, I think that he still can profile as a big league starter. Michael Wacha is a guy I see him similarly to, in that they're both tall, angular college righties with velocity, and the knock on both was the curveball. Wacha made some strides with his breaker in pro ball, and while he's probably a better athlete (with a cleaner arm action) than Tyler, I still personally wouldn't rule out Tyler being able to make it work as a starter.
The upside for me is a #3 or #4 guy who can strike hitters out. I suppose the floor is an inconsistent starter, though you have to think his fastball and changeup would play up as a two-pitch mix in a 'pen role so long as he's able to maintain his blow-by velocity.
-Adam McInturff
Jeb (Iowa): What do you think of the Will Craig pick for the Pirates? I like it, I think they're gonna pick a high upside guy at 41
Live Draft Chat: Sorry we got to this late, but that's exactly what they did! Lodolo's stuff took a step forward this spring (as I heard/was reported--I didn't see him this spring), and he's no doubt a 100% projection prep guy. I'm not sure how many people outside the area saw him going where he did. There's a lot to dream on with the extra-lanky 6-foot-6 southpaw. I thought he lacked strength over the summer, but as I mentioned, it could be that he put some of those durability concerns to rest.
-Adam McInturff
Tom (Phoenix): We are right at the 50th pick. Which teams have you really liked so far?
Live Draft Chat: I think it is easy to see what a few teams are doing. Braves draft really stands out because even with the insane pitching stable they have, they still went with three high upside pitchers. Textbook "don't draft to need". Cardinals are also killing it, with Perez falling to them and being able to nab Hudson. -Grant Jones
Tom (Phoenix): We are right at the 50th pick. Which teams have you really liked so far?
Live Draft Chat: Man, tough to beat what the Braves have done in getting all these arms. After that, like what the Reds, Cardinals, and A's have done.
Rob (Alaska ): Nobody wants Nolan Jones?
Live Draft Chat: Indians just took him. Great get if they can sign him, not sure they will save much money with Benson based on bonus demand rumors. -GJ
Infrancoeurgible (Down and Away ): Do the Rockies still have a reputation of only drafting a certain... "type" of player or has that not been true for a while?
Live Draft Chat: I could argue in 2015 that they were in the drivers seat, they were going to be happy with whichever SS they got.
Before that they've tried polished college arms (Christian Friedrich, Eddie Butler, Tyler Anderson, Jon Gray), projectable HS arms (Peter Tago, Tyler Matzek, Ryan Castellani, Ryan Warner) with more misses than hits. So I don't think they have a reputation of drafting just certain types of players. -Steve Givarz
Aaron Bair (WV): Thanks for the chat. What are some of the drafts that stand out so far
Live Draft Chat: Similar to the question above, coincidentally. Almost like 50 is a round number, or something...
I won't re-mention the ones just touched on. I'll add the A's, White Sox, Reds, and Rockies to that list. I like a lot of these drafts for the same reason. The numerous picks and shifting of prep players on the board probably has created a situation where an unexpected surplus of college players are available to clubs that value performance.
A's--Puk was the top guy on my board, and I am a fan of both Daulton Jefferies and Logan Shore. The A's have three big league pitchers in this mix, and it isn't crazy to think they could have three starting pitchers at that.
White Sox--I think they got two really safe bets to provide value at the big league level in Collins and Burdi. Alec Hansen had 1/1 talk because of his natural size and stuff entering the Spring, but the control was so bad he's been an afterthought of late. Chicago has a great reputation developing starting pitching internally. Collins has a big league bat and Burdi has the stuff to be the first player from this class to reach the big leagues in a relief role. What if they get Hansen to click and throw strikes, too?
Reds--Senzel and Okey are both very high-floor players, both very polished players with a good chance to contribute at the big league level. Trammell is a guy I saw a lot over the summer and as an underclassman, and I've been a fan of his for a few years now. Good blend of safety and upside so far for the Reds.
Rockies--Riley Pint has as high a ceiling as any player in this class. I'm high on Robert Tyler as well and think he could remain a starter. Ben Bowden is a physical lefty with big league pitches. The Rockies all-out assault on pitching in the Draft continues, and they've gotten some arms I've liked a lot from both the prep and college ranks the last two years.
-Adam McInturff
Hurtado (Left): Where would Michael Jack Schmidt's mustache go in this draft?
Live Draft Chat: Well behind Mitchell Kranson from Cal, I would hope: http://image.cdnllnwnl.xosnetwork.com/pics33/400/UB/UBNZPYGRAQLWGHH.20151029180443.jpg
(I actually wrote up Kranson earlier this spring, he can hit a little: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28712 ) - WK
John (Nashville): Why did Bryan Reynolds fall so far?
Live Draft Chat: I'm not sure. I get questioning the overall impact of the tools, in terms of how high his ceiling really is. That said, I would never have believed you if you told me that Anfernee Grier, Buddy Reed, JB Woodman, and Ryan Boldt--all college outfielders--would go off the board before Reynolds.
I think Reynolds will be one of those well-rounded players that thrives in that system (SFG), perhaps moreso than he would in others. Great fit, great talent relative to the spot.
-Adam McInturff
BeardMan (New York): Who are some of the biggest value picks so far, in your opinion?
Live Draft Chat: Reynolds to the Giants, Groome to Red Sox, Rutherford to Yankees. They will be tough to sign but those are awesome picks for where they were slotted. Perez to Cardinals, along with Hudson. Braves didn't get "value picks" per say but spread out money perfectly and reportedly had all three of their first picks in their top 20, so they must be ecstatic. -Grant Jones
BeardMan (New York): Who are some of the biggest value picks so far, in your opinion?
Live Draft Chat: Nolan Jones--CLE
Bryan Reynolds--SFG
Dakota Hudson--STL
-Adam McInturff
BeardMan (New York): Who are some of the biggest value picks so far, in your opinion?
Live Draft Chat: The Yankees grabbing Rutherford at 18 was a very nice get there, he was my favorite bat this spring. The Cards with both Perez and Hudson where they got them, Cleveland grabbing Jones as late as they did was excellent value. Assuming they sign him, the Sox stealing Groome at 12 is a huge coup. - WK
Bones (North Dakota): What do you think of the Dodgers draft so far?
Live Draft Chat: Okay if unspectacular. Lux is a solid grab at 20, not a ton of high-end up-the-middle talent in this class, and he's a good glove there. Smith fits in with their org ethos of developing excellent receivers and framers, though it's more of a backup catcher profile with below-average offense. Sheffield's a boom-or-but type, poor command, on the small side. Wicked FB-SL combo though, high-leverage potential (and very good potential in that role) if he can't hack it as a starter.
Hoof Hearted (Booze Cruise): How's this crop relative to other drafts? Is it deep in terms of projectability or more top-heavy?
Live Draft Chat: I think overall, the 2016 class will have some value throughout--though won't be the most superstar-laden, either.
In terms of how talent is dispersed (top-heavy vs. depth), I think there's 55 or 60-grade depth, depending on how some of the prep arms turn out. When one of the strengths of a draft class is high school pitching--a demographic that usually will fall in the Draft--there's a chance for potentially high-ceiling talent outside of the first 30 picks.
Justus Sheffield, Robert Tyler, Dakota Hudson, and Alec Hansen are college arms who could have big league futures, all drafted outside the top 30 picks.
Joey Wentz, Kevin Gowdy, and Kyle Muller are high-upside prep arms also outside the earliest picks.
-Adam McInturff
GoTribe06 (Lynchburg): Based on analysis I've seen, it seems that Jones will reach the majors before Benson. True or false?
Live Draft Chat: I think they're both longer-track development guys. It doesn't mean I don't really like both--I do, and together, they're even better--but I don't think one is a fast track guy and one isn't. There's a chance that Nolan Jones needs to acclimate to 3B, which he has the tools to do, but that could take time. Cold-weather prep hitters can sometimes take time to get used to the professional grind and better velocity.
It's great to think about a scenario in which both of these guys get production out of their plus raw tools. Both would be solid regulars, Benson the chance to maybe be more.
-Adam McInturff
Manner (CAL): Can you tell me more about Puckett? Reliever?
Live Draft Chat: Wrote up Puckett earlier this spring, I like him for a durable back-end projection. The fastball and change work well together, and he shows advanced pitchability with a decent command profile. I got multiple reports of better consistency later in the spring, which led to him creeping up draft boards as a "safer" college righty: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28565
-WK
Friday Night Starter (Backfields): Who are the most intriguing players still available heading into day two?
Live Draft Chat: I had my Brett Cumberland answer all queued up until the Braves swooped in just now. Some guys from my list: Andrew Calica can play, solid all-around game, heard Ben Baird outplayed Delvin Perez at a scouting showcase pre-draft and is a solid up-the-middle HS bat, Brian Serven, backstop from ASU is a field general with stellar defensive chops...somewhat surprised Colby Woodmansee's still kicking around, same with Bryson Brigman from San Diego. I liked Zac Gallen as a solid arm, Jeremy Martinez from USC can hit...-WK
BirdDawggie (Georgia): Who are the high school kids that could really wow us if it goes right?
Live Draft Chat: Not to play coy, but the ones taken at the top of the draft were taken there for a reason. I agree with Crawford that Groome has the highest upside of anyone in this draft class, prep or college. Here's his Day One analysis: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=29480
Birdos (STL): Did the Cardinals just have the best day one?
Live Draft Chat: Probably as good a claim as anyone, yeah. Perez, Hudson, and Jones were all tremendous values for where they popped 'em, and while Carlson was one of the reachier below-slot guys he's got exactly the kind of profile that St. Louis excels at developing. - WK
Live Draft Chat: Alright, our dudes and dudettes, that's a wrap for Day One. Thanks for exploring the Draft Day space with us.
1) Be sure to check Chris Crawford's pick-by-pick analysis here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=29480
2) Come back and hang out with Wilson Karaman for a late night chat on Monday here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=1345
3) Be excellent to each other
Love,
The Baseball Prospectus Prospect Team <3
|
