Portrait of Shelby Miller

Shelby Miller PPirates

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2019 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 28)
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Birth Date10-10-1990
Height6' 3"
Weight225 lbs
Age31 years, 1 months, 19 days
WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA..
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shownClick to hide.
2012 SLN MLB 6 1 13.7 1 0 0 9 4 16 0 94 5.9 2.6 0.0 10.5 0% .273 0.95 1.88 1.32 74 2.68 61.5 0.4
2013 SLN MLB 31 31 173.3 15 9 0 152 57 169 20 100 7.9 3.0 1.0 8.8 0% .280 1.21 3.64 3.06 96 3.54 84.7 3.0
2014 SLN MLB 32 31 183.0 10 9 0 160 73 127 22 103 7.9 3.6 1.1 6.2 0% .256 1.27 4.50 3.74 120 5.39 132.1 -1.2
2015 ATL MLB 33 33 205.3 6 17 0 183 73 171 13 90 8.0 3.2 0.6 7.5 0% .285 1.25 3.47 3.02 99 3.87 90.4 3.0
2016 ARI MLB 20 20 101.0 3 12 0 127 42 70 14 103 11.3 3.7 1.2 6.2 44% .340 1.67 4.90 6.15 117 7.00 154.9 -1.9
2017 ARI MLB 4 4 22.0 2 2 0 20 12 20 1 91 8.2 4.9 0.4 8.2 46% .288 1.45 3.58 4.09 102 4.24 90.2 0.3
2018 ARI MLB 5 4 16.0 0 4 0 24 8 19 5 97 13.5 4.5 2.8 10.7 52% .404 2.00 6.31 10.69 99 4.22 94.2 0.2
2019 TEX MLB 19 8 44.0 1 3 0 58 29 30 8 108 11.9 5.9 1.6 6.1 41% .336 1.98 6.42 8.59 123 9.08 186.3 -1.6

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
2009 QUD A MDW 2 2 3.0 0 0 0 5 2 2 0 98 15.0 6.0 0.0 6.0 0% .417 2.33 4.29 6.00 107 6.70 140.9
2010 QUD A MDW 24 24 104.3 7 5 0 97 33 140 7 104 8.4 2.8 0.6 12.1 0% .352 1.25 2.82 3.62 0 0.00 0.0
2011 PMB A+ FSL 9 9 53.0 2 3 0 40 20 81 2 95 6.8 3.4 0.3 13.8 0% .330 1.13 1.99 2.89 57 2.37 48.4
2011 SFD AA TEX 16 16 86.7 9 3 0 72 33 89 2 109 7.5 3.4 0.2 9.2 0% .308 1.21 2.90 2.70 81 3.30 67.4
2012 SLN MLB NL 6 1 13.7 1 0 0 9 4 16 0 94 5.9 2.6 0.0 10.5 0% .273 0.95 1.88 1.32 74 2.68 61.5
2012 MEM AAA PCL 27 27 136.7 11 10 0 138 50 160 24 92 9.1 3.3 1.6 10.5 0% .322 1.38 4.94 4.74 98 4.18 87.1
2013 SLN MLB NL 31 31 173.3 15 9 0 152 57 169 20 100 7.9 3.0 1.0 8.8 0% .280 1.21 3.64 3.06 96 3.54 84.7
2014 SLN MLB NL 32 31 183.0 10 9 0 160 73 127 22 103 7.9 3.6 1.1 6.2 0% .256 1.27 4.50 3.74 120 5.39 132.1
2015 ATL MLB NL 33 33 205.3 6 17 0 183 73 171 13 90 8.0 3.2 0.6 7.5 0% .285 1.25 3.47 3.02 99 3.87 90.4
2016 ARI MLB NL 20 20 101.0 3 12 0 127 42 70 14 103 11.3 3.7 1.2 6.2 44% .340 1.67 4.90 6.15 117 7.00 154.9
2016 VIS A+ CAL 2 2 12.0 2 0 0 8 1 19 0 103 6.0 0.8 0.0 14.3 46% .308 0.75 0.79 0.75 50 1.45 32.1
2016 RNO AAA PCL 8 8 50.7 5 1 0 55 10 55 4 107 9.8 1.8 0.7 9.8 52% .367 1.28 3.22 3.91 74 3.01 66.5
2017 ARI MLB NL 4 4 22.0 2 2 0 20 12 20 1 91 8.2 4.9 0.4 8.2 46% .288 1.45 3.58 4.09 102 4.24 90.2
2018 ARI MLB NL 5 4 16.0 0 4 0 24 8 19 5 97 13.5 4.5 2.8 10.7 52% .404 2.00 6.31 10.69 99 4.22 94.2
2018 VIS A+ CAL 2 2 11.7 1 0 0 7 0 18 0 94 5.4 0.0 0.0 13.9 46% .292 0.60 0.66 0.77 54 1.58 33.3
2018 WTN AA SOU 2 2 7.7 0 0 0 13 6 10 1 107 15.3 7.0 1.2 11.7 26% .545 2.48 4.80 10.57 101 7.90 166.9
2019 TEX MLB AL 19 8 44.0 1 3 0 58 29 30 8 108 11.9 5.9 1.6 6.1 41% .336 1.98 6.42 8.59 123 9.08 186.3
2019 SAN AAA PCL 5 5 20.7 1 2 0 17 16 20 1 97 7.4 7.0 0.4 8.7 44% .296 1.60 4.95 4.79 100 4.36 89.7
2019 BRB Rk AZL 1 1 3.0 0 0 0 4 2 2 1 116 12.0 6.0 3.0 6.0 50% .333 2.00 9.25 6.00 87 5.21 107.2
2019 BRR Rk AZL 2 2 9.0 0 1 0 4 1 14 0 96 4.0 1.0 0.0 14.0 67% .222 0.56 1.80 2.00 88 3.45 70.9

Plate Discipline

YEAR Pits Zone% Swing% Contact% Z-Swing% O-Swing% Z-Contact% O-Contact% SwStr%
2012 196 0.5867 0.4796 0.7021 0.6783 0.1975 0.7179 0.6250 0.2979
2013 2966 0.5310 0.4693 0.7751 0.6457 0.2696 0.8240 0.6427 0.2249
2014 2785 0.5343 0.4463 0.8262 0.6324 0.2328 0.8735 0.6788 0.1738
2015 3216 0.5454 0.4879 0.7833 0.6619 0.2791 0.8398 0.6225 0.2167
2016 1727 0.5153 0.4673 0.8154 0.6584 0.2640 0.8498 0.7240 0.1846
2017 385 0.5065 0.4494 0.7746 0.6615 0.2316 0.7907 0.7273 0.2254
2018 328 0.4604 0.4665 0.7974 0.6821 0.2825 0.8544 0.6800 0.2026
2019 862 0.5360 0.4455 0.8125 0.6450 0.2150 0.8356 0.7326 0.1875

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-06-25 2014-06-29 DTD 4 4 - Back Tightness -
2013-08-08 2013-08-14 DTD 6 5 Right Elbow Contusion - -
2013-06-18 2013-06-22 DTD 4 4 Right Lower Leg Cramp Calf - -
2013-02-20 2013-03-02 Camp 10 0 Right Shoulder Soreness - -


Year Team Salary
2021 CHN $
2020 MIL $
2019 TEX $2,000,000
2018 ARI $4,900,000
2017 ARI $4,700,000
2016 ARI $4,350,000
2015 ATL $535,000
2014 SLN $521,000
2013 SLN $490,000
8 yrPrevious$17,496,000
8 yrTotal$17,496,000


Service TimeAgentContract Status
6 y 93 dRoc Nation Sports1 year/$875,000 (2021)

  • 1 year (2021). Signed by Chicago Cubs as a free agent 1/19/21 (minor-league contract). Salary of $875,000 in majors. May earn additional $600,000 in performance bonuses. DFA by Chicago Cubs 5/26/21. Released 5/31/21. Signed by Pittsburgh as a free agent 7/1/21 (minor-league contract). Contract selected by Pittsburgh 9/1/21.
  • 1 year (2020). Signed by Milwaukee as a free agent 1/27/20 (minor-league contract). Opted out of 2020 season, placed on restricted list 8/3/20.
  • 1 year/$2M (2019). Signed by Texas as a free agent 1/9/19. Performance bonuses for innings pitched: $100,000 each for 60, 70, 80, 90, 100 IP. $150,000 each for 110, 120, 130, 140, 150, 160, 170 IP. $200,000 for 180 IP. May earn $1.25M in roster bonuses: $150,000 for 60 days on active Major League roster, $250,000 each for 90, 120 days. $300,000 each for 150, 180 days. DFA by Texas 7/1/19. Released 7/4/19.
  • 1 year/$4.9M (2018). Won arbitration with Arizona 2/1/18 ($4.9M-$4.7M). Non-tendered by Arizona 11/30/18.
  • 1 year/$4.7M (2017). Lost arbitration with Arizona 2/3/17 ($5.1M-$4.7M).
  • 1 year/$4.35M (2016). Signed by Arizona 1/15/16 (avoided arbitration).
  • 1 year/$535,000 (2015). Signed by Atlanta 3/2/15. Acquired by Arizona in trade from Atlanta 12/8/15.
  • 1 year/$521,000 (2014). Re-signed by St. Louis 3/14. Acquired by Atlanta in trade from St. Louis 11/17/14.
  • 1 year/$490,000 (2013). Re-signed by St. Louis 3/13.
  • 1 year (2012). Contract purchased by St. Louis 9/4/12.
  • Drafted by St. Louis 2009 (1-19) (Brownwood High, Texas). Signed 8/17/09, $2.875M signing bonus.

2019 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET

90o 0 3.8 0 9 9 49.6 38 18 49 4 .262 1.13 3.04 3.05 1.0 0.1
80o 0 3.7 0 8 8 44.3 37 17 43 4 .275 1.21 3.40 3.42 -0.8 -0.1
70o 0 3.5 0 7 7 40.5 35 16 40 4 .286 1.27 3.66 3.7 -2.0 -0.2
60o 0 3.3 0 7 7 37.4 34 16 37 4 .294 1.33 3.88 3.93 -2.7 -0.3
50o 0 3.2 0 6 6 34.6 33 15 34 4 .302 1.38 4.10 4.16 -3.4 -0.4
40o 0 3 0 6 6 31.8 31 14 31 4 .310 1.44 4.32 4.38 -3.8 -0.4
30o 0 2.9 0 5 5 28.9 30 14 28 3 .319 1.49 4.55 4.63 -4.3 -0.5
20o 0 2.6 0 5 5 25.6 27 13 25 3 .329 1.57 4.84 4.92 -4.6 -0.5
10o 0 2.3 0 4 4 21.1 24 11 21 3 .343 1.67 5.23 5.33 -4.7 -0.5
Weighted Mean03.106634.03215334.3001.374.074.13-3.2-0.3

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BP Annual Player Comments

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BP Articles

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BP Chats

2019-05-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hi Mark. Dynasty question for you. I've been building my team for several years hoping to finally contend this year but I've now lost my three best pitchers (Eovaldi, Rodon, Shoemaker). I do still have Chris Bassitt and Shelby Miller though. Do you think I can turn it around and win big in 2019?
(Elton from Pacific Northwest)
Hey Elton, I don't want to be the bearer of bad news, but if you have to rely on Shelby Miller as a rotation option, I think you might be in trouble. Sorry. (Mark Barry)
2018-08-29 19:00:00 (link to chat)Shelby Miller a late Target next year too? I'm banking on him in my dynasty
(Wishy Washy from Finland)
He's a flier in leagues, but I wouldn't put that much hope into him. (Eddy Almaguer)
2017-03-09 20:00:00 (link to chat)TTO, Which of these would you bite on in a BL 18-20 team league as comeback potential for 2017: Wacha, Shelby Miller, Zack Wheeler, Luis Severino, Alex Wood? Any other once good/promising young SP that you see as a reasonable high variance target?
(jtwalsh from Northport NY)

Ian: Shelby Miller is probably where I'd start since his velocity is ticking back up and he was basically fine (if overrated) before his velo dipped; I'd probably put Severino next. We do tend to like this category of player and I have hope for all of them. Part of the departure from our Mock Draft pick (Wheeler ahead of all the others) is that Miller looks good in Spring Training and Wheeler seems actively hurt, which we'd like to avoid.
Ben: Yeah, these guys are totally my jam. I think I'd probably say Wheeler until Ian corrects me just because he seems like he had a bunch of talent before and I was thinking he was going to recover. Caveats apply wherein I am not as up to speed on the Spring Training happenings, so as with all things, trust Ian. (Ben Murphy, Ian Lefkowitz and Jared Weiss)
2017-02-21 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thoughts on Shelby Miller ? Can't be as bad as last year can he be ?
(Noel from Atlanta)
I mean, he could. I'm not drafting Miller in any fantasy context. There are too many other options I like. (George Bissell)
2016-04-21 19:00:00 (link to chat)What's Shelby Miller's value look like now? I'm starting to fear this is worse than just a SSS blip and am thinking about jumping ship.
(Will from Gainesville)
It slips because I'm a little worried that he's going to wind up on the DL. He seems healthy based on the velocity but I don't know why he is having problems keeping upright with his delivery. I have my own shares of Miller and am hoping this isn't a control/command issue that will linger. I think you have to knock Miller down a tier at this point in a redraft. (Mike Gianella)
2016-03-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)The D-Backs decision to trade Inciarte was means they really need Yasmany Tomas to not suck this year for that move to work. What is your take on Tomas? Will he improve, or is he just the 2nd coming of Damian Viciedo?
(Q-Ball from Chicago)
Calling anyone the second Dayan Viciedo is fightin' words, where I come from. I've never been high on Tomas, but the Diamondbacks need to have Shelby Miller not suck this year for that deal to pay off. It's a lot easier for the Snakes to find a new corner outfielder than to find a consistent No. 2 starter, that's why they dealt Inciarte. (Bryan Grosnick)
2016-03-09 19:00:00 (link to chat)Mike, I need big time help here. I'm so lost on who to keep. I've made a couple bad moves that just seem to keep snowballing after drafting yoan last year and trying to send him down to my minor leagues (the guys with the top 2 waiver spots wouldn't budge and still won't). 12 team H2H points league... Which 8 do I keep??? Yoan, schwarber, Carlos Gomez, Franco, Carpenter, A Jones, Pujols, Quintana, Samardjzia, sonny Gray, Cueto, Shelby Miller, Teheran. Thank you sooo much!!!
(Clark from Corn Maze)
Yoan Moncada, Kyle Schwarber, Gomez, Maikel Franco, Matt Carpenter, Sonny Cray, Johnny Cueto, and Adam Jones. (Mike Gianella)
2015-11-18 13:00:00 (link to chat)What is Shelby Miller's value? Is he worth Dansby Swanson?
(Matt from Virginia)
i assume this is a fantasy question. I'd rather have Swanson. In real life? Nope. (Christopher Crawford)
2015-10-19 19:00:00 (link to chat)In your Tout Wars season. If you made 1 draft mistake, what was it? And if you made 1 in season mistake, what was it?
(JoelNick11 from Indiana)
My big auction mistake was purchasing Ryu for $11, not because of the injury news (which was positive the morning of the auction) but because it hindered me later and kept me away from pitchers like DeSclafani, who I liked, and other cheap pitchers who would have been better to speculate on than the $11 Ryu. It also kept me from buying some slightly more expensive fliers on the hitters side. Based on when I purchased him, the timing was bad.

It didn't hurt me, but trading Addison Russell and Jeremy Hellickson for Shelby Miller was awful, particularly because I was gunning for wins. Never trade for pitcher wins. It almost never works out. (Tout Wars Champ Mike Gianella)
2015-10-19 19:00:00 (link to chat)Who of these do you have confidence in as they all seem to have their issues, even in dynasty leagues. Shelby Miller (any offense support); Teheran ( more of his own failure than run support); Taijuan Walker (will new management continue to tinker with his form causing him to veer further and further away from his once astronomical hype); Zach Wheeler (didn't have great control before surgery, post surgery = ?)
(Kory from Las Vegas)
Miller bugs me a little bit not so much because of lack of support but because his fastball seemed to lose some movement Post All-Star. He was still throwing hard but didn't have the same kind of results. Teheran looked better Post All-Star and I think will bounce back to a degree. I still like Walker a lot but to your point it's hard to know if the new regime in Seattle will just leave him alone. Wheeler is a total wild card given that TJ recovery paths aren't all alike. (Tout Wars Champ Mike Gianella)
2015-10-22 14:00:00 (link to chat)Regardless of what happens the rest of this series, tough to be disappointed by '15 CHC campaign. What optimizations, in terms of diversifying lineup & improving D, do you see front office making? Adding SP is a no-brainer.
(Matt from Chicago)
This is going to be a capital-F Fun winter for the Cubs and Cubs fans. The defining characteristic of the organization right now is modularity. You can rearrange three dozen pieces into a thousand different set-ups for next season. With their prospect depth, the young guys established on the big-league team and the questions surrounding them, things could break so many different ways. I'll note a couple things I think are inevitable:
1. Dexter Fowler will be given the qualifying offer, and then the Cubs will very politely stop taking his calls. He was great for them, an absolutely perfect fit that catalyzed their season before it even began, but now they need other things in center field. Namely, they need a defensive anchor, someone who can shore up the outfield defense even if the team decides to go into next season with the big bats of Schwarber and Soler in the corners.
2. There will be some consolidation of multiple useful assets into a single, closer to elite one. The model I'm using in my head is the Cardinals' trade for Jason Heyward last November. They had a good player (Shelby Miller) for whom they no longer had room, and a really valuable pop-up pitching prospect (Tyrell Jenkins) who was due to land on the 40-man roster or be made available in the Rule 5 Draft, but whom they couldn't squeeze onto their own 40-man. For future reference, the Cubs' most notable Jenkins types-not only in that they will need to go onto the 40-man roster this year, but in that the Cubs will have a hard time keeping them-for this winter are Jeimer Candelario and Dan Vogelbach. The thing they need to look for in their trade target is well-roundedness. (Matthew Trueblood)
2015-07-23 17:00:00 (link to chat)I'm in a 20 team dynasty league and I'd really like to add a starter (pretty thin behind Sale and Gray). This is my offense: C Grandal, 1B Duda, 2B Dozier, 3B Arenado, SS Miller, LF Byrd, CF Cain, RF Granderson, bench Baez, Alcantara, Cesar Hernandez, Burns, Carter, Eugenio Suarez. Minors roster: Mazara, Nick Williams, Olivera, Barreto, Berrios. Based on those names, who would you try to trade for a starter, and what kind of guy would you target? I'm in 2nd this year but would really like to keep those prospects if possible. I'm not sure who to shop and just wondering if you had any thoughts. Thanks Mike!
(Nathan from Indiana)
I would try to trade Byrd or Grandy for a starter and I'd target a third tier guy. Try to push for someone like Shelby Miller, who has slumped somewhat but should still have some value down the stretch. And, yes, avoid moving those prospects unless someone is dumping and trading you two upgrades to your active lineup! (Mike Gianella)
2015-07-02 15:00:00 (link to chat)Hey Doug, Pursuing both Degrom and Shelby Miller in a dynasty league. I respect your pitcher mechanic evaluation so I was wondering if you could share some thoughts on these two - trying to see who is a better bet to stay healthy over the next few years. Thanks!
(Dave from Boston)
Pitchers who throw hard are naturally at an increased risk, so Miller and deGrom both get warning flags despite relatively sound deliveries. Miller was a much different pitcher mechanically last season and has gotten himself back on track this year (watch his head-butt during the follow-through, much more tame), but that inconsistency gives me pause. deGrom has shown more of a steady line of improvement, so I would lean that direction. (Doug Thorburn)
2015-07-02 15:00:00 (link to chat)Who's mechanics have taken the biggest step forward/jump back this year from the 2015 SP Guide?
(Shawn from Cubicle)
I will have to give this one more thought in order to have a better answer, particularly on the jump back side, but I have been impressed with the continued improvement of Trevor Bauer's stability and repetition as well as Shelby Miller's ability to shed the inconsistencies of 2014. Both pitchers still have work to do, but they are both young/advanced enough to endure the growing pains at the highest level without harming their long-term development. (Doug Thorburn)
2015-06-30 19:00:00 (link to chat)I have Fernandez coming back. Who would you drop Bauer or Shelby Miller?
(Amy from Boston)
I'd drop Miller in a keeper and Bauer in a re-draft. (Mike Gianella)
2015-02-04 19:00:00 (link to chat)Who do you like best for the long haul? Michael Pineda, Danny Duffy or Shelby Miller.
(Gmurphsiu02 from St Paul)
I can't, in good conscience, put Pineda over either of these guys. He keeps teasing and showing flashes, but then pulls the rug out from under. It's frustrating.

I'll very hesitantly take Miller>Duffy. I think the Braves can refine his mechs a bit, and get his CB back to a strike out pitch. Duffy has yet to do it for a full season yet, but I do think he has slightly higher upside, lower floor. (Jordan Gorosh)
2015-03-23 13:00:00 (link to chat)Expectations for Heaney this year?
(Anaheim Mike from Cali)
I think he'll be good enough to keep his job when Richards comes back. I don't know why this comp, because it doesn't work at any kind of detailed or literal level, but I sort of like Shelby Miller's career as a rough guide for Heaney's season. A few dominant outings, league average or better, but higher start-to-start volatility than most pitchers, even young pitchers. (Sam Miller)
2015-01-28 19:00:00 (link to chat)Mauricio, who in the AL is this year's Corey Kluber?? Thanks a bunch, I really appreciate your opinion!!
(Billy from Rotoworld)
Gavin Floyd.

Joking aside, wouldn't surprise me if Shelby Miller took all sorts of steps forward. (Mauricio Rubio)
2015-01-12 13:00:00 (link to chat)Would you be willing to rank T. Walker, Shelby Miller, Odorizzi, and deGromm for fantasy purposes?
(John from Chicago)
Sure. deGromm, Walker, Odorizzi, Miller. How's that? (Matthew Kory)
2014-11-18 13:00:00 (link to chat)What is the health status of Brandon Beachy and how does the Shelby Miller trade effect his 2015 season? Also how does it look for of Patrick Corbin and Tony Cingrani healthwise for 2015? Thanks for the chat, and all the knowledge, you pass along!
(Dragonbreath from Gurnee, IL.)
I haven't seen much recent new on the health statuses of Beachy and Medlen, but I wouldn't consider the acquisition of Miller as any sort of reflection on those. I'd imagine the Braves were more concerned with maximizing their return on Heyward a year away from his free agency. There is room for both Beachy and Medlen in the rotation if they are healthy. One thing to keep an eye out: I saw reports this morning that the Braves are courting Jon Lester, or at least having him in for a visit. It's hard to say if this will have any bearing on his decision, but I believe Lester lives in Georgia during the offseason.

I'd expect Cingrani to be ready to roll on Opening Day-whether it's as a starter remains to be seen-and Corbin to return around June. (Daniel Rathman)
2014-11-18 13:00:00 (link to chat)DO you think the move to Atlanta will have any effect on Shelby Miller? What do you project for him in 2015?
(John from PA)
I don't necessarily see a major difference in the venue change, John, but I still like Miller and think he can be a good mid-rotation arm. (Daniel Rathman)
2014-11-18 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thanks for the chat Daniel. Is the off season one of the rare places where we get a glimpse that front offices known something we don't. For example what do the Cardinals know about Shelby Miller that made him expendable or do they just see better things for Heyward? Why do the Red Sox want Sandoval over Headley? Martin signing gave us a glimpse that teams might start to be valuing catcher defense and framing.
(Matt from Cambridge)
Sure thing, Matt-thanks for participating. That's an interesting way of viewing the offseason, and I do think we can see the Martin deal as an indication of that, although it's worth noting that value metrics that don't include catcher framing like him at something close to the price the Jays paid. It's easier to see more general trends like that than to discern specific reasons why a team lets a player go. There's certainly a degree of asymmetric information in any trade, and it may end up benefiting the Cardinals here, but I don't think we can claim to have learned anything in particular about the Cardinals' impression of Miller from this trade. (Daniel Rathman)
2014-10-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)What's the deal with Shelby Miller? Everybody loved him as a prospect, but after 2 seasons of a sub 4 ERA and ERA+ of 111 everybody has cooled on him. Shouldn't people be thrilled with those results before his 24th birthday?
(John from Chicago)
See the comment above about us all being ridiculous. I don't know if everybody has cooled on him, but when we have a top pitching prospect, the excitement often gets out of control. I don't know that Miller ever projected as a staff ace because he was so fastball dominant. The arm is there, but he relies on the fastball an awful lot. He's getting away with it, which is great, but he'll probably settle in as a mid-rotation starter. That's a really good thing and people should be excited about that. He was a high-school pitcher taken in the first round. Do you know how many of these don't pan out? He's pitching in a playoff rotation. That's a win for the Cardinals. (Jeff Moore)
2014-08-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)What happened to Shelby Miller? Top 10 prospect in 2012, great rookies year in 2013, and hot garbage in 2014?
(Not Shelby from STL)
Doug Thornburn had a good piece about this earlier this year. He has had issues with command in the zone, particularly fastball command. Combine this with Miller's earlier problems with lefties - particularly with his off speed stuff - and this is what you get. There is a lot that needs to be fixed here, and really it wasn't so much a great rookie year as 10-12 dynamite starts to start 2013 before he put up a 3.89 (I think) the rest of the way. (Mike Gianella)
2014-08-21 13:00:00 (link to chat)Does Shelby Miller still project to a top 20 pitcher? Was last year the fluke or this year?
(John from Chicago)
No (did he ever??). I felt last year was the fluke. (Harry Pavlidis)
2014-08-08 13:00:00 (link to chat)I have Segura, Wilin Rosario and Shelby Miller in a keeper league where they'll be cheap next year. Should I have any confidence that one or more of them will rebound? And would you hold on to any of them over Danny Duffy or Drew Pomeranz for the same price?
(Sjcolmus from Baltimore)
I like Duffy going forward. Would drop Rosario for him, and while I'm not optimistic on Segura, I'm hopeful he can rebound a bit. Pomeranz isn't very good. (Craig Goldstein)
2014-07-25 14:00:00 (link to chat)Shelby Miller. Uff. What's going on with him? Can he regain his #2 status or is he just broken?
(Harry from The Lou)
Please see my article today for answers: (Doug Thorburn)
2014-06-11 12:00:00 (link to chat)If they could, should St. Louis trade Shelby Miller, Matt Adams and Carlos Martinez for Paul Goldschmidt? (Goldy's just 26 and only makes a bit over $40M for the next 5 years. At 5 WAR per year he'd generate $100M in surplus value.) Thanks for chatting, Matthew!
(Mo Zeliak from Slightly Hot Seat)
It's always fun to chat. I appreciate that you guys take time out of your busy days to talk baseball with me. I really do. Many thanks for that.

As for that deal, wow, that's a lot of talent to give up. I'll put it this way: if I were the Diamondbacks, I'd make that deal two times.

And now, sadly, it's time for me to go. I have a podcast to do and an article to write and a sunny day to enjoy. I will be in Seattle this weekend with Jason Parks, Joe Hamrahi, Geoff Young, and Harry Pavlidis and I hope to see you there! Should be a blast.

Have a great week everyone and thanks for spending some time here at BP! (Matthew Kory)
2014-05-02 14:00:00 (link to chat)What do you make of Shelby Miller this year?
(Jason from STL)
A couple of questions on Shelbias T. Miller today. Miller's biggest issue is balance, with a big drop in his center of gravity after max lift, and the problem has leaked into his delivery after foot strike this season. His foundation does not look as stable as it was last season, with a tendency to drop even further after foot strike due to extra flex in the knees, and he has been exaggerating his spine flexion to further complicate his release point. The net result is a lower, inconsistent release point, and it appears that he needs to work on conditioning his lower half in order to get back into form.

On the jukebox: Guns n' Roses, "My Michelle" (Doug Thorburn)
2014-05-02 14:00:00 (link to chat)I'd be interested to hear if you've taken a look at Shelby Miller recently. He's not missing bats and not looking comfortable on the mound. Hidden injury? What's changed since his dominant 1st half last year? Or is the lack of a well-developed 2nd pitch and the league is catching up? any input on Shelby would be appreciated. Oh, and thank Bret for talking me into dealing Miller for Rendon via Bat Signal. Love it.
(Chris Moore from Columbia, MO)
See previous response, but I'm glad that you mentioned the repertoire. I do think that he needs to refine his change-up in order to reach ceiling, as his current 2-pitch approach is easy for MLB batters to exploit once they've seen what he brings to the table.

... and the Bat Signal is awesome. The BP fantasy team is absolutely shoving it this year. (Doug Thorburn)
2014-04-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)Dynasty forever Keeper (W,K,ERA,WHIP). Who do you want: Shelby Miller or Chris Archer? Is it even close?
(bb10kbb10k from Erie, PA)
Gimme Miller, and it's not particularly close. (Doug Thorburn)
2014-04-03 19:30:00 (link to chat)I've got Yu Darvish in my keeper league, and need to pick my starters for the week. Should I throw out Shelby Miller this week and wait and see on how Darvish comes back from his injury?
(Desmond from Dayton, Ohio)
I wouldn't hesitate with a stud like Darvish. You have him for a reason. Play him. (Craig Goldstein)
2014-04-03 19:30:00 (link to chat)Shelby Miller has been experimenting with a cut fastball this spring, and a little bit at the end of last year. Have any reports on the value of the pitch, and general prediction on his numbers this year?
(Clive from Newark)
I haven't seen much on the cut fastball, to be honest. I personally don't think he needs it but if he can use it I don't see an issue. I really like Miller to have a strong year. I think he ends the season below a 3.30 ERA and a strikeout rate above 22% (Craig Goldstein)
2014-03-12 14:00:00 (link to chat)Am I alright with a fantasy pitching staff anchored by Scherzer, Cain, Shelby Miller, Andrew Cashner, RA Dickey, Drew Smyly and Tyson Ross?
(Lou from washington)
I have no idea. How big is your league? I like a lot of those pitchers. If you're in a 20-team NL-only league, well done! (Except for the three AL guys.) (Ben Lindbergh)
2014-03-12 14:00:00 (link to chat)What kind of year can I expect from Shelby Miller? Does he take the next step forward and what's an innings projection?
(Teddy from Orlando)
I'm not really optimistic about Miller taking another step forward unless he really refines a third pitch that can get lefties out. He outperformed his peripherals somewhat last season, and from what I've heard, he was one of the hardest-hit pitchers in baseball according to HITf/x. I think he was probably lucky to have as much success as he did, and I wouldn't expect a non-fluky 3 ERA (again, unless he improves his arsenal, which is certainly possible). (Ben Lindbergh)
2014-02-28 14:00:00 (link to chat)It's raining here too, but the ski slopes are really hoping it turns to snow. Please rank the following pitchers in order of expected career value: Archer, Cole, Sonny Gray, Wacha, Shelby Miller, Teheran, Zack Wheeler. I expect that one or more of them will be available for my first round pick in my Strat-O-Matic league rookie draft tomorrow.
(Rex Little from Big Bear CA)
Interesting list. Gimme Cole, (gap), Teheran, (gap), Miller, Gray, Wacha, Wheeler (all very close), Archer (Doug Thorburn)
2014-02-28 14:00:00 (link to chat)Soothe my concerns over Shelby Miller's regression at the end of last year. I wanna love him, but it's been a rollercoaster with him.
(Rammstein from Germany)
I chalk it up to his tiring down the stretch, despite his comments that he was physically fine at the end of the year. He does need to refine his change-up in order to have another option against left-handed bats, but I expect continued progression from Miller.

Awesome name, by the way, been awhile since I listened to Rammstein. (Doug Thorburn)
2014-02-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)Despite the inherent costs of starting the arbitration clock earlier, shouldn't the immediate success of top NL fireballing pitching prospects last year like Gerrit Cole, Jose Fernandez, Shelby Miller, Michael Wacha and even lower ceiling guys like Tony Cingrani and Alex Wood made it more likely that Archie Bradley, Noah Syndergaard and maybe even guys like Matt Wisler and James Taillon come up to help their clubs as early as possible?
(Scott from LA)
Maybe, but remember everyone's developmental cycles are different. Kevin Gausman seemed like a good bet to succeed right out of the gates, instead he allowed more hits than innings pitched. So it's really a case-by-case thing.

Plus, with the exception of Jose Fernandez, all those pitchers were on quality teams. If I'm the Mets I'm not eager to cost myself more money later on for two months of a guy who, let's face it, isn't the difference between the postseason and the golf course. (R.J. Anderson)
2014-02-03 13:00:00 (link to chat)Verlander for $1 or Shelby Miller for a $1? It looks like a no brainer, but is it? Really? Your thoughts.
(Drew from Florida)
I'd go with Verlander for a dollar but I tend to favor starters who have shown the ability to throw 200 innings consistently here. Shelby has serious upside but I'm comfortable picking Verlander here. (Mauricio Rubio)
2014-02-03 13:00:00 (link to chat)What are you thinking on Shelby Miller? He obviously had a great season last year and was a top prospect. But he struggled late in the season, had a missing persons report out on him in the playoffs, and threw his fastball way too much.
(Matt from MA)
He's got great upside still, but he was missing in the WS due to a shoulder issue and that raises a red flag for me. I think he's got a lot of obvious potential and this is a very important year for him. (Mauricio Rubio)
2014-01-21 18:00:00 (link to chat)Shelby Miller had a huge 2013, but disappeared in the playoffs. While he's mostly a two-pitch pitcher, could we expect a repeat in 2014? Progression or Regression?
(Sara from Tacoma)
Hi Sara:

I think the Cardinals were just being cautious with Miller given the workload and his lack of experience as a reliever and I think he'll be fine. I see him as a solid option despite the two-pitch limitation; it just might mean that he's a #2 long term and not an ace. But that's till pretty good. Maybe some slight regression, but only because a 3.06 ERA is hard to maintain for nearly any pitcher. (Mike Gianella)
2014-01-21 18:00:00 (link to chat)Shelby Miller had a huge 2013, but disappeared in the playoffs. While he's mostly a two-pitch pitcher, could we expect a repeat in 2014? Progression or Regression?
(Sara from Tacoma)
Hi Sara:

I think the Cardinals were just being cautious with Miller given the workload and his lack of experience as a reliever and I think he'll be fine. I see him as a solid option despite the two-pitch limitation; it just might mean that he's a #2 long term and not an ace. But that's till pretty good. Maybe some slight regression, but only because a 3.06 ERA is hard to maintain for nearly any pitcher. (Mike Gianella)
2014-01-21 18:00:00 (link to chat)Dynasty League: Shelby Miller (and push for this year), or two of the following: Stephenson, Butler, Syndergard (long shot he makes it to me), Appel, Stroman and play for next season via the draft? Team could go either way.
(AJ from Phoenix)
I disagree with you on Syndergaard; I like him a lot. In a dynasty, I'd take the futures and go with Stephenson and Syndergaard and hope you can dump one or more if you wind up contending. (Mike Gianella)
2014-01-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Dynasty team in contending position this year. Homer Bailey or Shelby Miller? Weird playoff absence and whispers of injury re: Shelby make me nervous for 2014 though he's seemingly the obvious long-term choice of the two. Thanks!
(Rob from Alaska)
Bailey easily even without paying mind to the playoff stuff with Miller. (Paul Sporer)
2013-12-10 18:00:00 (link to chat)Dynasty league (no limits or costs): Matt Moore, Jameson Taillon, Ryan Cook, and picks first 2 rounds in prospect draft, for Taijuan Walker, Shelby Miller, Yordano Ventura, and Joakim Soria. I assume you'd take Walker side, but I am selling a bit low on Moore considering the potential should he find his command?
(Slevin from Brooklyn)
Hey Slevin:

Hmm. I have to think about this one which means that the offer is probably in the ballpark in both directions. A lot depends on what is available in your prospect draft and what you think you can land with those 2 picks. Even in dynasty leagues, I generally like taking the proven commodity over the uncertainty, so from that standpoint I like Matt Moore better than any of the other pitchers in the deal. However, I have to assume that there isn't anything wrong with Shelby Miller and he certainly put up enough innings last year to be considered a Major League asset as well. With that in mind, I like Taijuan Walker and Yordano Ventura better than Jameson Taillon in that deal, and Joakim Soria has a better chance of closing than Ryan Cook in 2014. Again, much depends on what those picks will net at the minor league auction. Since it's dynasty, I'm assuming those picks will get you players who are talented but very far away. If you think you're going to compete this year, you probably want the Walker package. (Mike Gianella)
2013-12-10 18:00:00 (link to chat)Dynasty trade: Shelby Miller, David Robertson, and Brian Wilson for David Price. Fair?
(Sam from Fort Worth)
Hi Sam

David Price is better than Shelby Miller, although I don't know by how much. As of right now, it looks like David Robertson will close. Brian Wilson won't close, but should provide solid value in middle relief. If your league uses holds, I think that's way too much to give up for Price. If it doesn't, I think that's still a little too much to give up for Price, and the deeper the league, the more you're giving up in terms of the potential closer. (Mike Gianella)
2013-12-20 14:00:00 (link to chat)Have the Cards really soured on Shelby Miller or is the story made up ? What's the next step for him ?
(Spirou from Montreal)
I think that a lot is being made of his tiring down the stretch, and the magnifying glass of the postseason has blown the story to unreasonable proportions. He should be a key cog in the rotation in 2014, and only the Cards insane pitching depth would generate any questions to the contrary. He does need to develop a third pitch to attack lefties, as his change-up is still in the early stages and he was basically a two-pitch guy last year with the fastball and curve.

On the jukebox: Pink Floyd, "Hey You" (Doug Thorburn)
2013-11-19 13:00:00 (link to chat)if you had Buxton in a dynasty league and were offered Shelby Miller and Jose Bautista, what would your response look like?
(Biscotty from SJ)
If I was a contending team, that answer would probably look like Y-E-S. It's tough to trade Buxton, but even he has his price. (Bret Sayre)
2013-11-22 14:00:00 (link to chat)Is Shelby Miller essentially a one pitch pitcher or do you see enough to project improvement upon his 2013 campaign?
(Steve from Houston)
He's definitely a 2-pitch guy, as both the fastball and curve work in the rotation, but his ultimate value could hinge on the development of a changeup. His tiring down the stretch is not entirely shocking for a 23-year old, and I think that too much is being made of his supposed demise at the end of the season - the microscope of the postseason can overpower the big picture sometimes. He is in a great org to oversee his development, and I have high hopes for 2014. (Doug Thorburn)
2013-10-28 18:00:00 (link to chat)Hi Mike. Why hasn't Shelby Miller pitched this off-season? Obviously Mike Matheny has lots of options at his disposal but is there something specific going on with Miller such as a hidden injury or an attitude problem?
(mmcduffe from Ottawa)
I don't have the answer, but I've heard a few theories. One theory is that Miller is gassed, and his 12% strikeout rate in September is a sign of this. Miller has become the in-case-of-emergency-break glass guy. Matheny's use of his pen has been a bit of a mystery to me. I get that he has Carlos Martinez and Trevor Rosenthal as a very strong 1-2 punch, but there have been games where he seems to be going to the well with lesser relievers. Miller and Edward Mujica don't seem to belong on the roster, and Matheny's non-usage of them is a little odd. (Mike Gianella)
2013-10-28 18:00:00 (link to chat)For 2014 only, if the price were the same, would you take Wacha or Shelby?
(lester bangs from springfield)
Hi Lester:

At this moment, I'd take Michael Wacha. As I noted in the last question, I don't know if Shelby Miller is hurt or not. If Miller is healthy, this is a spring training call but I think I'd lean Miller. Wacha's lack of strong multiple secondary offerings is going to bit him over the course of a full season and while he should still be good he's not going to be this awesome. However, both Miller and Wacha should be very good options assuming they're both 100%. (Mike Gianella)
2013-11-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)Shelby Miller had a great rookie season but do you see him as a future #1? Seems like he got by with just a great fastball. What do you expect for the future?
(Jim from Baton Rouge)
I think #2, but have stopped being surprised when Cardinals arms outperform expectations. The curve has shown plus in the past and I think that's where it falls, long term. (Nick J. Faleris)
2013-10-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)Shelby Miller experienced a bit of regression at the end of the year. Can we chalk this up to simply tiring down the stretch in his first full year, or is there something else at play?
(SenatorsGuy from Montana)
I think he got a little tired but I also imagine the league adjusted to him. Seems like his counter move was to bring in the cutter, but it also coincides with his struggles .... so many tea leaves to read here. Could be a good topic for further analysis. (Harry Pavlidis)
2013-07-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)Who are some good SPs who you think should be doing better/worse to target/dump in a trade?
(Shawnykid23 from CT)
I think that the big trio of Hamels, Cain, and Price are good targets - Hamels has righted his delivery, Cain is just a minor tweak away from fixing his issues, and Price has looked better in his return. But those are easy answers. Parker has really turned it around from his early-season struggles, as well.

I would beware of Corbin and Iwakuma - I really like both pitchers, but they are playing a bit over their heads, and some correction is likely due. Travis Wood is not this good, and is due for a big correction. I am a big fan of Shelby Miller, but his 2-pitch repertoire could get exposed as teams get multiple looks - he is dead in the water on days when he forgets to pack his fastball command.

Oh, and never trust Francisco Liriano. His slider is taxing and he throws it 36% of the time. (Doug Thorburn)
2013-06-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)Shelby Miller or Jose Fernandez? If you're building a staff from scratch, who would you take?
(Lamp from Dallas)
Miller, but can't go wrong either way there. (Jason Cole)
2013-06-04 13:00:00 (link to chat)The next Shelby Miller is ________?
(Luke from Jacksonville)
Chris Archer (Paul Sporer)
2013-05-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)Is Shelby Miller really this good? People seemed to be wavering on that potential ace label this offseason, pushing him back to a #2 type. Has he proved those doubters wrong, yet?
(Daniel from Missoula)
In a nutshell: pretty much. Maybe not an ace. But there's nothing wrong with a very solid no. 2 starter. Over the offseason, Jason Parks had him as a "high-no. 2 starter" and I'd say he's still on line for that. There were some concerns early last season when he struggled, but Miller was able to lock back in and looked just fine during the second half. (Jason Cole)
2013-05-10 14:00:00 (link to chat)Probably a question best for a fantasy chat, but In a 20-team dynasty league: Giancarlo Stanton, Clayton Kershaw, and Patrick Corbin for Yu Darvish, Shelby Miller, Craig Kimbrel, Neftali Feliz, and Byron Buxton. Assuming the trade benefits the needs of both teams, which side would you rather have?
(Dr. Mike from Milwaukee)
Kershaw and Darvish are nearly a wash (maybe a slight edge to Kershaw), and it's hard to bank on Feliz, so it comes down to Giancarlo-Corbin for Miller-Kimbrel-Buxton. I love Kimbrel, but closers are risky business from a dynasty standpoint, and though I prefer Miller to Corbin by a decent measure, I don't think that Buxton bridges the gap to Giancarlo. I feel that prospects are extremely overvalued in dynasty formats, especially when compared to players like Stanton - Stanton is young enough to still qualify as a prospect and already one of the best players in the game, and his future will be even brighter once he escapes the island of misfit toys in Miami.

On the jukebox: Lagwagon, "Bury the Hatchet" (Doug Thorburn)
2013-04-25 12:30:00 (link to chat)With the sky high expectations, who do you see as being the answer to the St Louis closing situation long term?
(Scott from LA)
I don't know whether you mean long term as in "the rest of this season" or long term as in "for years to come," but either way, I'd probably say Trevor Rosenthal is the likeliest candidate. Not that he couldn't be a successful starter, but Shelby Miller looks great in that role already, and it can be hard for managers to unlearn what they've learned when they see a young pitcher dominate out of the bullpen. (Ben Lindbergh)
2013-04-25 12:30:00 (link to chat)thinking about offering the Matt Harvey owner Shelby Miller and Angel Pagan in a 12-team mixer. thoughts?
(Anthony from nyc)
Can a trade be both sell high and buy high? Both Harvey and Miller have looked great, but Harvey's looked a bit better. If we're talking just for this season, I don't have a problem with that offer. (Ben Lindbergh)
2013-04-16 20:00:00 (link to chat)You mentioned Taijuan Walker as being #1. Is he worthy of a grab this season in a keeper league? Can only hold 3 arms. i own Jose Fernandez and Shelby Miller as well.
(Erik from NY)
Yes, definitely worth a grab in a keeper league. He may be gone if you wait too long. (Bret Sayre)
2013-04-04 11:00:00 (link to chat)Bigger Impact this year and long-term- Shelby Miller or Jose Fernandez?
(Shawn from My Office)
Fernandez. I expect him to log more innings, make more starts, etc (Jason Parks)
2013-04-04 11:00:00 (link to chat)I have a question about actual velocity v. effective velocity in pitchers. Specifically in regards to scouting prospects. Whether it's arm extension, deception, etc, it seems like some prospects' heaters don't measure up with the velocity readings. For example, Shelby Miller consistently sits 91-93, but hitters seem to swing through it likes it's 95-98, while a prospect like Joe Kelly can hit the high 90s but batter's rarely swing through it. I also feel like this would be a good idea for an article about scouting effective FB velo in amateurs. Thanks, as always, for your work. Loving BP more than ever since you took over the prospect side!
(johnorpheus from st. louis)
In the minor leagues, velocity is king. At the major league level, every hitter can square velocity, so movement and location take a larger slice of the grade. Extension is very important; releasing the ball closer to the plate really makes that heater jump on the heaters as it has more punch than the gun might suggest. But movement is the big separator here. A little late life can throw the ball under or away from the barrel. Lots of things go into a good fastball, from extension, to deception, to plane, to movement, to velocity, to command, and the best ones can bring it all. (Jason Parks)
2013-04-04 11:00:00 (link to chat)I don't know that I've seen any post-spring commentary from you on Teheran. I know it's only spring, so stats aside, what are your/scouts' takes on his stuff and command? Could this be similar to Shelby Miller's struggles last year before returning to form?
(DF from Wilmington, NC)
He was excellent this winter, and I know the Braves really believe in the kid, He's added some movement to the fastball by throwing more two-seamers, and even though the curve isn't a wipeout offering, it has improved and he will also mix in a slider. I don't think his struggles were similar to Miller, who arrived in camp a bit out of shape and was overly reliant on his fastball at the expense of his secondary arsenal. (Jason Parks)
2013-04-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)Shelby Miller was masterful the other night. How quickly can this guy be REALLY good?
(Brian from STL)
Hey Brian, like any young pitcher, it's a matter of getting reps and gaining consistency. I don't know how quickly he'll get there, but the ride will be fun to watch. (Geoff Young)
2013-04-12 14:00:00 (link to chat)What do you think of Shelby Miller so far this year?
(Steve G. from STL)
I really like what I see from Miller, and am optimistic that he can translate his success from the second half of '12 into a continued growth pattern in '13. His mechanics were sound in his first start, and harnessing his timing will be a key facet of his performance, meanwhile the development of his secondary stuff will likely determine his staying power in the St. Louis rotation.

On the jukebox: Rage Against the Machine, "Ashes in the Fall" (Doug Thorburn)
2013-03-20 11:00:00 (link to chat)Another top fantasy writer, Eric Karabell thinks that Trevor Rosenthal may end up as the 8th inning guy this year and then becomes a starter next year, ala Adam Wainwright next year. Your thoughts? I've thought about taking him late in a keeper league.
(Eric from CO)
Eric knows his stuff and I wouldn't rule that out. Rosenthal has a big-time arm and even if he's not Shelby Miller, he's a pretty good prospect in his own right, too. That path makes sense, given the makeup of the Cards' staff this year. (Cory Schwartz)
2013-03-21 13:00:00 (link to chat)For my NL only team, I have several guy that I intend to keep. It is a 4x4 league, is this staff enough for me to survive? Greinke, Lincecum, Cahill, Beachy (not sure who to fill-in with), Shelby Miller, O'Flaherty, andCishek and plan on drafting Rosenthal & Fujikawa.
(Garcia from Rehabbing)
I'm wary of Lincecum, based on the things I've read this spring, and with Beachy coming off of Tommy John and Greinke dealing with minor elbow trouble, I'd look to add at least one more proven starter. (Daniel Rathman)
2013-02-27 20:00:00 (link to chat)Hey Mike, My keeper deadline is tomorrow, and I've got to decide between keeinng a $6 Shelby Miller for 3 years, or a $25 Yu for 3 years. What do you recommend? I would be left with either $134 or $153 of a $260 budget for 14 postitions? Thanks for the chat!
(Ed from Left Coast)
Hi Ed on the Left Coast. It depends on your league's inflation factor, but I think I'd lean Miller. Unless you're in one of those old school 4x4 leagues, Yu Darvish at $25 isn't any kind of great bargain. Miller could be and perhaps more importantly could turn into a dump chip for you mid-season. You've got a better chance of turning a profit out of Miller and a better chance of grabbing a potential ace like Darvish at auction. (Mike Gianella)
2013-02-19 13:00:00 (link to chat)Where does Trevor Rosenthal's future lie, in both the short term and long-term... the rotation or the bullpen?
(Jefferey Loria from Atlanta Renegadin')
In the short term, bullpen, I think--I'd expect Shelby Miller to lock up a rotation spot, which wouldn't really leave room for Rosenthal unless Garcia can't go. In the long term, I think he's certainly capable of starting, and probably will, but he might look so dominant in relief (as he did last October) that Matheny gets used to the idea of having him there and grooms him as Motte's successor. (Ben Lindbergh)
2013-03-01 13:00:00 (link to chat)Do you see any of the top pitching prospects a future injury risks, specifically Walker, Cole, Fernandez, Wheeler and Bundy?
(cal guy from cal)
We are fortunate to be witnessing a renaissance of young talent on the mound. I typically have many reservations about the mechanics of young pitchers, but the mechanical profile of every pitcher that you mentioned is incredibly advanced for his age. There are a couple of risky guys out there - Tyler Skaggs stands out as an inefficient pitcher - but the majority of the other top prospects are well ahead of the standard development curve. I haven't been able to say that for years, but beyond the five that you mentioned, I have also been impressed by Shelby Miller and Kyle Zimmer, among others.

My pet player is Jose (J.O.) Berrios. He had the best mechanics in the 2012 draft, in my opinion, and the #32 overall pick exemplifies the change of approach that we are seeing in Minnesota. I am very high on his future, and would buy Berrios stock if he were a publicly-traded commodity.

On the jukebox: Pink Floyd, "Sheep" (Doug Thorburn)
2013-02-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Name a couple of SP which fall outside the top 75 that could end up inside the top 50 this year.
(The Piranha from Amazon River)
Ricky Romero, Shelby Miller, a healthy Scott Baker, Alex Cobb, Marco Estrada (Paul Sporer)
2013-01-22 13:00:00 (link to chat)How do you feel the Cardinals rotation shakes out? At what point for Shelby Miller and Trevor Rosenthal get their chance?
(Tommy from Btown)
It comes down to whether the Cardinals re-sign Lohse (doubtful by all accounts), Jaime Garcia's health, and their evaluation of Rosenthal as a starter. I think Rosenthal could spend the season in the pen, and I wouldn't be shocked if Miller is in the rotation come October. (R.J. Anderson)
2013-01-16 13:30:00 (link to chat)Mark, thanks for answering so many of my questions. Your insight is valued greatly.... Do you think Trevor Rosenthal finds a home in the STL rotation? Are they ready to let lohse go and insert rosenthal or does Shelby miller have the inside track there?
(Kai from SLO)
My pleasure, Kai. Thanks for coming out and asking so many questions!

I think Rosenthal could succeed in the Cardinals rotation but I'm not sure they are prepared to go that route. His dominance in the bullpen was ridiculous and extremely appealing. With other options like Shelby Miller -- who ultimately has a higher upside than Rosenthal -- they may be inclined to push Miller into that spot instead of Rosenthal. Honestly, I'd have a hard time faulting them for that. (Mark Anderson)
2012-12-28 13:00:00 (link to chat)Cardinals still need a shortstop and have tons of young starting pitching. Rangers still need starting pitching and have an abundance of young shortstops. Shelby Miller, Matt Adams & Tyrell Jenkins for Jurickson Profar. Why wouldn't John Mozeliak and Jon Daniels be talking?
(Don from Missouri)
Hi Don, thanks for the question. My personal opinion is that it's impossible to "have an abundance of shortstops," but such a trade would be fun. I'm not even sure how I'd evaluate it other than to note that I'd hate to give up Profar. Then again, Mozeliak probably feels the same way about his guys. Hmmm... now I totally want this to happen. (Geoff Young)
2012-12-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)Proposition: Trevor Rosenthal has passed Shelby Miller as the top pitching prospect in the ridiculously pitching-rich Cardinals farm system. Completely crazy, arguable but probably not, or likely to be true?
(Bill from New Mexico)
It's not completely crazy, but I disagree with the statement. I still prefer Miller because I think he's a safer bet to be a major league starter. (Jason Parks)
2012-11-29 13:00:00 (link to chat)I know there is little to no chance (and even that is an exaggeration) that Texas would trade Profar. But if the Cardinals would be willing to include Shelby Miller & Trevor Rosenthal, would that at least pique the Rangers’ interest?
(Kingpin from Grinnell, IA)
Thanks for the question, Kingpin. Guessing a lot of threes being hoisted in your gyms recently. I always think you should be willing to at least listen, because you never know what value the other club paces on your and their players. There are guys who you believe you would never consider moving, but a good professional relationship with the other side usually provides some element of reality. Keep in mind that about 90% of deals discussed never get to the finish line anyway. (Dan Evans)
2012-10-30 13:00:00 (link to chat)With the Cardinals' inevitable loss of Kyle Lohse, do you see them being active in the free agent sp market? Besides Wainwright, Shelby Miller, maybe Garcia, Carpenter and Westbrook, they are a bit light. I think Kelly or Rosenthal could replace Lynn. Thank you.
(Chopper from Indy)
Hi Chopper. I'm not sure what the Cardinals might be thinking, but if I ran things, I'd wouldn't be looking to replace Lohse's 2012 performance. Adam Wainwright should improve a year removed from surgery and Chris Carpenter should give the team more than three starts. I'd be targeting guys to slot in behind those two, guys who maybe are on level with what Lohse was when he came to St. Louis. Specifically, I'd be looking at Joe Blanton, Edwin Jackson, Shaun Marcum, and Anibal Sanchez. If I wanted to gamble, I might make a play for Scott Baker. But this all says more about my process than the Cardinals', so take it with a grain of salt. (Geoff Young)
2012-10-23 13:00:00 (link to chat)Do you think Shelby Miller's pure stuff is good enough for him to have a chance of developing into a true ace?
(Roy Munson from 1978 Iowa State bowling champ)
Nope. It takes more than just stuff. Being an ace is about putting it all together and being consistent with the high-end results over an extended period of time. You dont flash being an ace. You either are an ace or you aren't an ace. It's not a casual label. Aces are bred from their own history. (Jason Parks)
2012-10-04 14:00:00 (link to chat)Thanks for the chat. Should I be excited about either of these two young SP's heading into next year - Shelby Miller and Wily Peralta?
(Rockford from Treeline)
You're welcome, Rockford, thanks for stopping by.

You should be excited about both of them. I'm a huge fan of Shelby Miller, and he showed last night that he's ready to do big things at the major-league level; he'll be among the favorites for Rookie of the Year honors. Peralta has a lower ceiling and is a bit less polished in terms of command and control, but as the Brewers shore up their pitching staff, he should have plenty of opportunities to contribute in 2013. (Daniel Rathman)
2012-10-04 14:00:00 (link to chat)With all the breakout seasons from several rookies this year, what rookies do you see potential big seasons from next year?
(Rockford from Treeline)
You mentioned Shelby Miller and Wily Peralta earlier. Among pitchers, I think we'll see a much better showing from Tyler Skaggs and Casey Kelly in the National League, and I'm certainly looking forward to seeing Dylan Bundy in the AL. At the plate, I'll go with Jurickson Profar, Wil Myers, and perhaps toward the end of the year, a cameo from Billy Hamilton. (Daniel Rathman)
2012-09-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)Do you still see Julio Teheran as a top 20 talent? Teheran or Shelby Miller for the long haul?
(iorg34 from Jalalabad)
Not without a better breaking ball. Give me Miller. #Texan (Jason Parks)
2012-10-08 13:00:00 (link to chat)Does any team have more potential impact talent hitting the majors next year than the Cardinals—with OSCAR, Kolten Wong, and Shelby Miller?
(Billy from Ocean)
Nope, and I'm interested to see how the Cardinals work Taveras in next year -- if they do so at all. Jon Jay established himself this year and I wouldn't be surprised if the Cards let Taveras crush PCL pitching until an injury or September roster expansion opens up an opportunity for him in St. Louis. (Bradley Ankrom)
2012-09-05 14:00:00 (link to chat)Dynasty league fantasy player here, if you wanted a pitcher who is currently in the minors to build you rotation around who would you take?
(MBErickson from KC)
Dylan Bundy is probably the popular answer here, but the name that jumps to mind immediately is Taijuan Walker. He has world-class stuff and a great pitcher's park. If you're looking for someone closer to the majors, Shelby Miller might be the guy. (Daniel Rathman)
2012-08-23 13:00:00 (link to chat)Shelby Miller, back on track as a good number 2?
(Robert Niemeier from New Mexico)
It's possible. That's the ceiling. If Miller wants it, it's very possible. He has the combo of size, strength, and stuff to develop into a very good major league starter. You want to see the secs and approach get more consistent and focused, but the total package could be very, very good. (Jason Parks)
2012-08-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)Is there trouble brewing with Shelby Miller? What is ETA now?
(Hammer from FC)
There were reports earlier in the year about Miller's stuff declining, and in the past there have been some makeup concerns. I can't speak much to either, though if the rumors about the Cardinals' willingness to trade Miller are true-and let's be fair here: they didn't-then it does make me wonder what they know that we don't. My guess would be that, regardless of team, Miller will make his big-league debut in 2013. (R.J. Anderson)
2012-07-03 14:00:00 (link to chat)I'm looking to stash a player in the minors that isn't expected to produce at the MLB level until late 2012/early 2013. Who are the guys you would consider?
(patvijay from Chicago)
Definitely start with the list I gave in question 3. You could add Travis D'Arnaud, Shelby Miller, Gary Brown, Nolan Arenado. It sounds like you might be in a shallower league, though, so if most of these guys are available and you're just grabbing one, I'd probably have to go with Wil Myers. (Derek Carty)
2012-06-21 13:00:00 (link to chat)Word is that Shelby Miller just got ordered not to shake his catchers off any more, i.e., just throw what they tell him to. Any read on what that means and why? Presumably there's a connection to his disappointing season so far, but what is it?
(Bill from New Mexico)
It might suggest that Miller follows his own beat. He was throwing too many FBs early in the season because it felt more comfortable to him. I can't speak to any specific developmental issue or makeup concern, but I have heard whispers that he hasn't always been an ideal student. You can't believe everything you hear, especially when it comes from other teams, but Miller hasn't been overly impressive this season, and it started when he arrived in camp. (Jason Parks)
2012-06-12 13:00:00 (link to chat)How much stock do you put in production fall off for starting pitchers such as Shelby Miller, Jacob Turner and Manny Banuelos once they reach high level minors? Could it be that it takes a couple of years at higher levels for some guys, or does this affect their previous profiles a 1 or 2 starters?
(Oldwell89 from NC)
A lot of stock, but if the scouting reports stay good then I calm down a bit.

That's all, thanks for the questions. (Sam Miller)
2012-05-21 14:00:00 (link to chat)I remember a tweet you posted about Shelby Miller's velocity being way down in s spring start VS Washington. Has his good fastball returned? How do you think he's handling the jump to AAA?
(steve from CA)
His stuff has slowly and steadily returned and he's improved with every start. All system are go. (Kevin Goldstein)
2012-06-04 13:00:00 (link to chat)How much stock do you put in a player being "bored" in the minors, and it affecting his performance. See: Keith Law's recent comments regarding Shelby Miller.
(Jake from Chicago)
I didn't see what Keith Law said re Miller, but I'm sure players get bored if they don't feel challenged. I've been bored at jobs before. Not this one, of course. (Bradley Ankrom)
2012-03-29 13:00:00 (link to chat)Would you rather sign Oswalt or bring Shelby Miller up to relpace Carpenter if you were the Cards?
(EricJ from SF)
Miller isn't ready in my mind. (Kevin Goldstein)
2012-02-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)Gerrit Cole over Shelby Miller. First time I've seen someone do that. Could you give me a one sentence explanation? Thanks
(Ryan from GR)
Way more stuff. (Kevin Goldstein)
2012-01-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)What makes Shelby Miller's 92-94 so much harder to hit than everybody else's?
(Martin from Houston)
He has excellent extension, so the 92-94 looks more like 94-96; he throws it downhill on a steep plane and it features good late life. The combo makes it a monster pitch that is difficult to square up. (Jason Parks)
2012-01-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)Piggybacking off of the Shelby Miller question: Does Neil Ramirez's fastball behave the same way?
(MonkeyEpoxy from College Station)
It does. Ramirez has excellent extension on the pitch and creates good plane to the plate. Add the velo and the movement and the pitch becomes more than just its radar gun reading. (Jason Parks)
2011-12-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hey Jason. I like Shelby Miller.
(Kevin from Texas)
Hey Kevin. I like Shelby Miller as well. (Jason Parks)
2011-12-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Would you put these in order of highest ceiling to lowest: Gerrit Cole, Teheran, Shelby Miller, Jarrod Parker, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Tyler Skaggs. Thanks!
(Jeff from WDC)
Cole, Miller, Teheran, Wheeler, Parker, Skaggs,Harvey (Jason Parks)
2011-12-02 14:00:00 (link to chat)Will Shelby Miller make any starts for St. Louis in '12? I heard both Westbrook and Lohse have full no-trade clauses, so do Cards fans then need to hope for a Westbrook injury to get Miller called up?
(GBSimons from Boise, ID)
If the over/under on big league starts for Miller in 2012 is 0.5, I'm betting heavy on the over. (Kevin Goldstein)
2011-10-31 13:00:00 (link to chat)Any chance the Cardinals could steal Joe Maddon from the Rays--and would it be a good fit? One year left on his deal, and he's an admitted Cardinals fan...
(Andy from Chicago)
It seems like anything is possible this winter, and if the Cards are willing to trade Shelby Miller in compensation, perhaps the Rays would think about it--Maddon is signed through the end of next season. However, as creative as Maddon has been with the Rays, are we sure he's the right fit for the Cardinals? With the lineup aging, I'm not sure that this team's window is going to be open that much longer. (Steven Goldman)
2011-07-29 13:00:00 (link to chat)Matt Moore is to Shelby Miller as Albert Pujols is to _______.
(Matt from Saranac Lake, NY)
Someone really good but nowhere as good as Albert Pujols. (Kevin Goldstein)
2011-07-21 16:00:00 (link to chat)Hey Jason, with Drew going down for the year I'm left with Chipper (DL) and Peralta for my SS/3B who are some available pick ups to see me through?
(Brian from Rhode Island)
I lost Drew too and was immediately offered Ryan Theriot and Tyler Skaggs for Shelby Miller. Um, no. I'm not sure you're going to find anyone better than Peralta on the pickup pile; Peralta is hitting .351 over the last 20 or so games with 12 runs and 11 RBI. (Jason Collette)
2011-07-21 16:00:00 (link to chat)In a dynasty league where I'm likely to make the playoffs, would you move Pineda for Cliff Lee? How do you weigh the present against the future in such a situation?
(doog7642 from MN)
As my good friend Cory Schwartz says, Flags Fly Forever. I know I crapped on trading Shelby Miller earlier, but Ryan Theriot is not winning me a flag. Cliff Lee brings home the bacon....I do that deal. (Jason Collette)
2011-06-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)Is Shelby Miller the best pitching prospect in baseball right now? Seems like he's pushing up his timetable with every start.
(Mike from STL)
Yes. I think Miller is the best arm in the game right now. (Jason Parks)
2011-05-18 13:00:00 (link to chat)Aside from Harper, Trout, Montero & Brown, and with Hosmer, Hellockson, Chaoman & Teheran now in the majors, who occupies the remaining spots in the Top 10 at this point.
(commish from nyc)
While I should defer to Kevin Goldstein on this question, I'd have to say Mike Moustakas is right there with those guys. That's five. Then let's say John Lamb, Jameson Taillon, Matt Moore and Shelby Miller. (John Perrotto)
2011-02-28 13:00:00 (link to chat)You, Law, and BA all have Shelby Miller in the top 15 or so of your lists, however, you're the only one to exclude Zack Cox. To be clear, I'm not accusing you of hating the Cardinals, but I was wondering what you think accounts for the difference in opinion (besides talking to different scouts). What do you see that they don't?
(Cardinals645 from Santa Barbara, Ca)
I don't hate the Cardinals, but yes, I am definitely NOT a Cox fan. Bad-bodied player with a line drive swing. Just don't like that combination. (Kevin Goldstein)
2011-02-22 13:00:00 (link to chat)In brief: How will Shelby Miller and Carlos Matias break my heart?
(Andy from Chicago)
Miller probably won't break your heart unless he gets hurt; he's really good. Carlos Martinez (Matias) could break your heart by changing his name every six weeks during the season. His arm is special, but a lot could go wrong as he attempts to harness it. (Jason Parks)
2011-02-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Given Shelby Miller's numbers on the PECOTA cards Vs Teheran's in K/BB department 2.08 to 1.68 wouldn't he be the better of the two?
(Jquinton82 from NY)
PECOTA appears to think so, but you have to think about relative competence of scouts versus projection systems for players so young. PECOTA has something to add, and Shelby Miller is undoubtedly a promising pitcher, but Teheran has done nothing but wow scouts for the last 18 months or so. (Tommy Bennett)
2010-11-09 14:00:00 (link to chat)Shelby Miller ceiling is ___________? In terms of pitching prospects, I would rather have __________ over him?
(Ben254 from St. Louis)
No. 2 starter, kind of a Matt Cain type?; very few. (Kevin Goldstein)
2010-08-20 15:30:00 (link to chat)Do you see Shelby Miller as a one-level a year guy?
(iorg34 from Mudville)
Yes. Outstanding young arm and stuff, but still quite raw. (Kevin Goldstein)
2010-08-17 14:45:00 (link to chat)How good will Shelby Miller be? How good CAN he be?
(Cards Fanatic from Quad Cities)
He has the chance to be the best baseball player named Shelby of all time. (Eric Seidman)
2010-08-17 14:45:00 (link to chat)Cards Fanatic (Quad Cities): How good will Shelby Miller be? How good CAN he be? Eric Seidman: He has the chance to be the best baseball player named Shelby of all time. ================== John Shelby on line 1 for you, Eric.
(dianagramr from NYC)
You're disqualified. Last names don't count. (Eric Seidman)
2010-07-01 14:00:00 (link to chat)Any consideration for Shelby Miller for number 11? The K's are unreal but he seems like he's still trying to harness his control, what are you hearing?
(Shae from Mizzou)
I've seen him, and that's him exactly. The stuff is very, VERY good. (Kevin Goldstein)

BP Roundtables

DateRoundtable NameComment
2010-04-05 09:30:00Season Opener RoundtableJust got a press release from the Cardinals affiliate here that top prospect Shelby Miller is their opening-day starter. I think I have my weekend planned out now. (Colin Wyers)

PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

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