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Chat: Jeff Moore

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Monday October 13, 2014 1:00 PM ET chat session with Jeff Moore.


Jeff Moore is part of the BP prospect team, the author of the daily Minor League Update, and the author of recent pieces on Arizona Fall League rosters, draft-pick bias, and the relevance of Aaron Judge's long, long arms. Ask him about anything!

Jeff Moore: Hello everyone, I'm coming to you from outside of a Starbucks in Delray Beach, Florida. Still 84 and sunny here, and we're nearing the time of year when I rub it in to everyone up north that I live down here. It's my reward for not complaining all summer when it's a billion degrees every day. We've got a great queue of questions lined up, but keep 'em coming. They can be prospect-related, about the playoffs, or just life in general. Just don't ask me if something is or is not a sandwich. I simply don't care. I've got a Mocha in hand and Pandora on the radio. Let's get this thing cranked up!

baseballjunkie (SF Bay Area): Jeff, Have we seen the start of the decline for Longoria or can we expect 2015 to be a more typical Longo year?

Jeff Moore: No, he's fine. He's just 28 and in the midst of his prime. It was just a down year. He has just enough swing and miss in his game to keep his average in the .250-.270 range, depending on the luck of the bounce. I'd expect a solid bounce back year from him next year.

Colin (WI): Does Judge earn a second half call up next year if the Yankees are out of the running?

Jeff Moore: It's certainly a possibility. Judge already has a pretty professional approach to hitting. He'll probably start the year in Trenton next year and could go a half-year at each level, which could get him to the majors by August or September, depending on the Yankees needs and his/their success.

Kate (TX): Quelle est votre opinion de l'AFL? Is it significantly helpful, developmentally?

Jeff Moore: I like that we're challenging me with questions in other languages. These chats were getting too easy.

I think the AFL can be used for a number of advantageous reasons. It's a good way to make up for lost time with a guy who missed time during the year. It's a good way to challenge guys who haven't quite reached Double-A yet, as the talent level is pretty good. It's also a good way to get guys ready for a big league look the following seasons. That's why the rosters are so diverse. You could see a teenager like Raul Mondesi facing a guy like Taijuan Walker, who has a decent amount of big league experience. It's a fascinating test.

Coco (Kentucky): What was happening on the day you took your Twitter profile picture?

Jeff Moore: I'm actually surprised I haven't been mocked for this yet. Maybe it's happening behind my back. That is part of one of my engagement photos. I cropped out my fiancÚ, which she wasn't thrilled about, though I don't think she wanted to be a part of my Twitter profile photo.

On a related note, it is completely impossible not to look like an idiot during engagement photos, both while taking them and in the photos themselves. My photographer did a great job, but it's admittedly a pretty douchey photo. The ones of my fiancÚ look fantastic, however so there's a good chance it's just me.

Wally (DC): what do you think Stephen Souza's likely upside is? Do you buy into the late bloomer big league regular, or see a 4th OF type?

Jeff Moore: I buy into the possibility of being a late bloomer, and Souza certainly fits that profile. Just how much blooming he has left remains to be seen. He should definitely do enough to catch on as a 4th OF, but if he has just a little more development in him, he could play every day. Of course, on the Nats, I don't know how or where that's going to happen, so he may and up as a 4th OF just out of circumstance.

bloodmoney (detroit): are you going to throw craps with mark appel or are you going to play it safe and not even walk in the prospect casino ? I say he will be a front line winner eventually.

Jeff Moore: I don't quite get the analogy, but I love craps, so I'll take the bait. Appel is going to be fine, and I'll bet when it's all said and done, we see his strange abomination in the California League as an outlier. That said, I don't think he's a staff ace. I'll bet he settles in as a mid-rotation starter and has a nice long career, which will some how end up being a disappointment to everyone because we are all ridiculous.

John (Chicago): What's the deal with Shelby Miller? Everybody loved him as a prospect, but after 2 seasons of a sub 4 ERA and ERA+ of 111 everybody has cooled on him. Shouldn't people be thrilled with those results before his 24th birthday?

Jeff Moore: See the comment above about us all being ridiculous. I don't know if everybody has cooled on him, but when we have a top pitching prospect, the excitement often gets out of control. I don't know that Miller ever projected as a staff ace because he was so fastball dominant. The arm is there, but he relies on the fastball an awful lot. He's getting away with it, which is great, but he'll probably settle in as a mid-rotation starter. That's a really good thing and people should be excited about that. He was a high-school pitcher taken in the first round. Do you know how many of these don't pan out? He's pitching in a playoff rotation. That's a win for the Cardinals.

RatedRookie (Atlanta): Do you believe, as I do, that Carlos Correa can play his way onto the big league roster in 2015? Why or why not?

Jeff Moore: Had he not gotten hurt and finished up the season, I'd be right there with you. As it is, I think it's still a possibility but will depend on his recovery. He should start the year in Double-A, which puts him on the cusp and if he's healthy and gets right back to raking, then sure, get him up there. I wouldn't put anything past Carlos Correa, but I do want to see him healthy and back on the field before I predict that he'll be in the majors by next season.

Boyd (Washington D.C.): What one or two minor league stats are the best indicators of future success for a hitter in MLB? What about a minor league pitcher?

Jeff Moore: Using stats as indicators is tricky. As I pointed out in my article about Aaron Judge, I think they can be a guideline to help us understand what we're seeing along with scouting reports. Using just stats is ludicrous (though that's not necessarily what you're insinuating). That said, one of the go-to stats I use for both hitters and pitchers is K/BB ratio.

Side note, when I write the word ludicrous, to this day I still spell it the like the rapper and rely on spell check to fix it, mostly out of nostalgic stubbornness.

Ben (New York, New York ): Where does Jorge Soler fit into the cubs future? How do you project him going forward?

Jeff Moore: Right smack in the middle of their lineup. That's where he's going to fit to start the season. If Bryant develops as expected and Baez makes the necessary adjustment, they'll slide him down a little, but for now, he's going to protect Rizzo this season and probably do a damn good job of it.

JD (New York): You've seen a lot of Dilson Herrera, both toward the beginning of the year and as he's made adjustments during its course. The swing isn't orthodox but at this point it clearly works. To what degree is Herrera's lack of quick-twitch athleticism going to limit his upside going forward? Some people have casually compared him to Dustin Pedroia back when Pedroia was similarly valued as a minor league player, but it seems to me that the latter guy (even back then) had much better athleticism in the batter's box. I'm still not convinced Herrera is even a league-average second baseman (although one more good year should win me over). Your thoughts?

Jeff Moore: Herrera was one of the most interesting prospects I saw this season because of the improvement he made from March to September. I saw him in spring training and noted that he was a good athlete still learning how to play baseball. I actually like his athleticism very much. His swing had issues though. I saw him early in the season and it was better but still inconsistent, though he was barreling the ball up pretty well. The next time St. Lucie came to town a few months later, the swing was much more refined and consistent and he hit everything in sight hard. Obviously, he kept getting better, torched Double-A and made it to the majors. If he continues to make improvements, he can be an everyday second baseman. If not, I think he falls into a utility role (I think he'd make a solid outfielder). I'm not convinced that he's an everyday 2B either, but I'm a lot closer to being convinced of it than I was this time last year. Another solid month or two in Triple-A will do it for me. I think he's earned shot to prove he can't do it, at the very least.

Wethy (Chicago): If Kyle Schwarber is able to stick at catcher (seems like a big If), what's a reasonable timeline for him breaking into the majors? How much does Schwarber at catcher improve his value over say a LF? Love the chats, Wethy

Jeff Moore: In the spectrum of "will Schwarber catch or not," I'm further to the side of "yes he will" than most. He's not a butcher back there, and there are worse defensive catchers in the majors right now. That said, I wouldn't want him back there every day for the sake of my pitching staff. He's not going to earn them a ton of extra strikes. If he can/does catch, it greatly increases his value over LF. It's not even close. It would, however, slow down his development. He'll need at least another full year of catching reps and I don't think the Cubs want to make him wait that long. He's not the same kind of impact hitter as many of the Cubs other hitting prospects, but he's a high floor guy that should be a big league regular even in LF and should be ready soon.

If I had to wager, I'd bet he catches some in the majors, but never on a regular basis. He could be used the way the Indians used Carlos Santana the past few years where he caught once or twice a week and played the field the rest of the time.

RatedRookie (Atlanta): How has Brandon Finnegan's postseason usefulness impacted his future role with the Royals? Do you think his long-term future is out of the rotation or the bullpen?

Jeff Moore: I think the Royals have to give him every chance to be a starter. What he's doing this fall is great, and it fits the Royals need right now, so it works. But if they keep him in the bullpen next year just because he's good at it, they're cutting off their nose to spite their face. Most pitching prospects would excel in a bullpen role, perhaps not to this extent, but they would be good at it. I think he goes back to the minors and works towards being a starter. He can always go back to relieving if it doesn't work.

Kingpin (Grinnell, IA): With info coming out now, at such an odd time, that the Cards are unhappy with Taveras's fitness, what is going on? Oscar-Matheny seems like a repeat of Rasmus-LaRussa where the club & manager just keep finding nits to pick until the relationship is irrepairable.

Jeff Moore: I don't understand at all why a GM would say that when he did. I don't care if Taveras blew up to look like Matt Adams' twin. If he's so fat that he can't play (clearly not the case) then keep him off the post-season roster. I'm not saying Mozeliak wasn't right that Taveras needs to get in shape. In fact, I have no idea. But why say it? Then the media runs with it because there aren't enough story lines for everyone to cover in the postseason and it blows up in their face. I just don't get what good can come from it.

RatedRookie (Atlanta): Is DJ Peterson the answer at 1B for the Mariners? Is he up for good at some point in 2015?

Jeff Moore: Yeah, he's probably not too far away. He's done nothing but hit at every stop. Whether or not he can handle 3B, he's not pushing Seager off and they have a gaping hole at 1B, so that does seem like the logical move. Sometimes these decisions are really complicated, but sometimes they are really simple. This one seems like the latter.

Shawnykid23 (CT): Who do prefer out of Rafael Devers and Manuel Margot?

Jeff Moore: The reports on Margot are very strong, but I haven't seen him in person. I did see Devers, and he's a stud. He's going to hit a ton. If he was a high school senior this year in the states he'd be a possible number one overall pick. I don't know if he'll outgrow 3B or not because who the heck knows how a teenager's body is going to grow, but even if he ends up at 1B, he'll hit enough for it. SO i guess I prefer Devers just because I've seen him, but that's not fair to Margot, who gets rave reviews too.

Festivus313 (Pittsburgh): Austin Barnes has hit at every level with great K/BB rates. I know that he was a bit old for some levels but do you think he has a chance to be an average regular in the majors?

Jeff Moore: Barnes is a favorite of mine, not because he's so good but because he does two things that I love in prospects. I love guys who walk more than they strike out and I love guys who offer positional versatility. He has just enough pop to be a big league bat, though not one who necessarily plays every day. But now that he's seeing time at 2B and 3B, he has become an incredibly valuable guy to a big league roster. He can definitely be a super-utility guy, and having a guy like that who can also catch is huge for a team. I'd want him on my roster/bench and I'd use him a lot.

RatedRookie (Atlanta): Bubba Starling, lost forever? That's 80-grade name, even if nothing else comes together for him.

Jeff Moore: I'm sure the Chiefs could use a wide receiver.

Chuck (Dayton ): What is a fair MLB comp. for Addison Russell?

Jeff Moore: I don't know that there is one, at least not with active major leaguers. The shortstop position is pretty crummy right now. Luckily the shortstop prospect position is stacked. He's going to be very good, let's just leave it at that.

Rex (Chicago): thanks for doing the chat. did their performance in summer season change your opinion on any hitters from the 2014 amateur draft?

Jeff Moore: No, nor should it. There's very little a young player can do in such a short period of time that will change our opinion of him. There may be incremental changes (he's a little better or worse at X than I thought), but in general, we know what these guys can/can't do. If a guy comes out and, say, hits 10 home runs after we thought he had no power, then perhaps, but that rarely happens. And any major struggles are generally not a concern until they happen again the following year. Your draft year, especially for high school players, is usually just about getting acclimated.

JG (Chicago): If Kris Bryant busts, it's because...

Jeff Moore: The world is over and we're all dead. I don't see any scenario in which Kris Bryant "busts," at least if your definition of busting is to flame out completely and have a terrible major league career. Is there a chance he doesn't become a role 7 perennial all-star? Sure, and if he doesn't it will be because the strike outs get to be too much for him. But even if that happens he should be a solid regular for a decade. For a guy with such a high ceiling, he also has a pretty high floor, which is what makes him one of the top 2-3 prospects in the game.

Jesse (Oregon): I saw your review on Brady Lail a while back and I was pleasantly surprised at how positive it was. Is he one of the better "sleepers" in the Yankee org?

Jeff Moore: Yeah, I'd say he qualifies as a solid sleeper, I was pleasantly surprised too. I'd like to see him miss a few more bats, but there's something there for sure.

maxpowers (chicago): Miami said he isn't being moved, but what is a realistic package from the Cubs for Stanton?

Jeff Moore: Considering they got Addison Russell and Billy McKinney for Shark and Hammel, I'd say the price for Stanton would be just about everyone in their farm system, Wrigley Field, and the cast of The League. If I'm the Marlins I don't even consider it without Bryant, which the Cubs won't do, so there ends your talks right there.

Jay (Madison): Where does D. Bundy start next year (AA?). Thoughts on his stuff this year. How concerned are you?

Jeff Moore: Yeah, Double-A seems about right. I know we say the recovery time from Tommy John is 12 months, but developmentally it's about two years. That year a pitcher returns to action isn't the same. They're either still getting their stuff back or on a severe pitch/innings limit. We also have to remember that despite that late season call up in 2012, Bundy still needed time in the minors. Then he lost all of 2013 and part of 2014 and spent the rest of the year still getting his stuff back. When it's all said and done, TJ will have set him back two years. Luckily, he was only 20 when he had it and he's still not yet 22. He'll start in Double-A, should be much closer to his old self, and could be in the majors by the summer. I'm not terribly concerned.

John (Chicago): Would you rather start a franchise with Mike Trout or with the Cubs top 5 prospects?

Jeff Moore: This isn't even close. You could give me the entire Cubs farm system (which is admittedly quite good) and I'd still take Trout. These are prospects. I love Bryant, Russell, Almora and the rest as much as anyone, but they are prospects. Stuff could happen. Bryant could be no better than slightly above average. Russell could be just average. Almora could still bust out. Stuff happens all the time.

I'll take the guy on a Hall of Fame trajectory who should have 3 MVP's before age 22 and hasn't even hit his prime yet, and I'll sleep just fine at night. You could offer me the top 10 prospects in the game and I'd probably still start my team with Trout and figure out the rest.

JG (Chicago): Kris Bryant has consistently posted exceptionally low contact rates in the upper minors and hasn't exactly been the most patient hitter (46-47% swing rates in AA/AAA). While it's understood that a lack of contact can be forgiven with the right power and the right patience, a lot of us don't get much of a look at how Bryant works counts and recognizes pitches. Does he have the strike-zone discipline and pitch recognition to pair with his power for concerns about contact rate to be minimal? What kinds of pitches is he swinging at so relatively often? Does he chase? Get fooled?

Jeff Moore: I haven't seen enough of Bryant since he's become a pro to accurately answer what kinds of pitches he's swinging and missing at, but I will say this: his strike out rates are high and that is a concern, but as I mentioned in the Judge article, at least a portion of those strike outs have to be because he's a patient hitter who draws a ton of walks. We don't have pitch fx data for the minors to tell us what his swing and miss rate is, and I'll bet it's higher than average, but the tradeoff is massive power, so it's ok with me. As long as it's not Javy Baez extreme it'll be ok, and the fact that he draws a ton of walks tells me it's significantly better. Deep counts lead to strike outs, but they also lead to a lot more times on base and fewer outs, so I'll take it.

I don't think he'll be a .320 hitter like he has been in the minors, but even if he hits .260 it could easily be a .260/.360/.550 line, which would be fantastic, even if it comes with 150 strike outs.

Rico (Idaho): Did you see this breakout coming from Mookie Betts? What is your outlook on his career?

Jeff Moore: No one could have seen this coming. I mean, the guy batted .400 for about a two month stretch. You can't predict that. That said, the signs were there. He's always had a good hit tool and good production, and I've already made my feelings clear about K/BB rate being a good indicator of future success. His was fantastic. It's not shocking he's turned into a very good player. I think he'll be an everyday player somewhere for somebody. I don't know what the Red Sox plan is because he's not unseating Pedroia and they have like 72 outfielders, but he should be in someones lineup everyday this year.

tx (tx): What is your opinion of cold pizza?

Jeff Moore: Microwaves are a thing right? Don't be lazy.

Alphonso (Chicago): Cubs could offer a better deal than a lot of other teams for Stanton IMO. Castro, Valbuena, Edwards, and Vogelbach for Stanton. 2 Proven MLB players, 1 an All Star on a Team friendly contract and 2 good minor league guys with upside.

Jeff Moore: Yes, the Cubs could offer a better package than almost anybody, but that doesn't even come close to getting it done. If Bryant isn't in the mix, I don't do it without Russell and Soler, and that's just the start of the discussion. I'd ask for McKinney too just because I really like his game.

Mark (Oakland): What is Matt Olson's best-case MLB scenario?

Jeff Moore: Not to hedge, but name every left-handed hitting three-true outcome hitter of the past five years and that's the possible range for Olson. Three true outcome guys are difficult to predict because they generally strike out a lot. Guys who have their best season in the California League are hard to predict because how much of their success is due to them and how much is due to the hitting environments? I have no idea what to do with Olson right now, but I don want to see him back it up with a good year in Double-A. A ton of A's prospects have really struggled when they've move from Stockton to Midland. If he backs it up, I'll jump on board. 117 walks always gets my attention.

Also, in full disclosure, I haven't seen Olson in person but I'll get a look at him in the AFL at the end of the month. I'll have a much stronger opinion of him then.

ithmus (New York): What is the outlook for Roman Quinn at this point? The Achilles injury was terrifying, but it appears he's back on track.

Jeff Moore: He's done being a SS, both because it was a work in progress and because he's on the same developmental track as JP Crawford. He's a CF for now, where his top-end speed should play well. I didn't see him after he switched positions, but I'll get a look at the defense in the AFL in a few weeks.

I don't know if he's going to hit though. He embraces the small ball/speed game, so that's good, but there are some holes in his swing(s). He doesnt have much power but he doesnt get the bat knocked out of his hand either. Speed is awesome, but he has to get on base to make it play. He's also not a very good base stealer/runner for a guy who is so fast. He makes all kinds of mistakes. The package is nice but he still has a long way to go.

Brendon K (Vancouver): What are your thoughts on Pompey? Given that Pillar/Gose are only other options, is there any reason for the jays to not allow for him to take the starting CF 2015 spit and run with it?

Jeff Moore: I'm a big fan of Pompey, probably as high on him as just about anyone was at the start of the year, but even I was shocked he got all the way to the big leagues this year. I mean, he tore through their system this year. Perhaps that was partly due to the fact that the Blue Jays knew they had an opening at CF coming next year and wanted to see if Pompey could be the guy to fill it. He's certainly a better option than Pillar/Gose. That said, I'd like to see him get some time in Triple-A next year. His RH swing is still a work in progress (though he has cleaned it up nicely). They could use guys to keep it warm until mid-summer for Pompey, but I won't be shocked if he makes the club out of spring training. They've already shown they're comfortable being aggressive with him.

I think he could be a similar player to Shane Victorino in his prime.

CubbieJoe (IL): What was up with Addison Russell's low walk rate in Tennessee?

Jeff Moore: Small sample, trying to impress a new team/make up for games missed due to injury. I don't know what is up with it, but I'm not worried about it. His plate discipline is fine.

RatedRookie (Atlanta): Here's to hoping the Nationals allow Giolito to unleash his full arsenal next season. Think he finishes the 2015 season in Double-A and pitches for the Nationals sometime in 2016, let's say, June?

Jeff Moore: I love the way the Nationals have handled Giolito. The FB/CB combo is the best in the minors, but he basically shelved the CB for a large part of the year in order to work on his change up. I dont know how much of that was at the order of the Nats or his own doing, but regardless, he appeared to embrace it wholeheartedly and it worked. His change up is getting better, which could make things unfair. They may take the leash off the CB next year, but I'll bet he keeps working on the CHG at the same time. I wouldn't be shocked if he got to Double-A by the end of next year but I could also see the Nats keeping him in High-A ball all season then allowing him to move quickly in 2016. They've nailed it so far, so I trust what they're doing, and the prospect and the organization seem to be very much on the same page, which is always good.

Jesse (Oregon): Were you able to catch any of the Yankee instructs? Any thoughts on Jorge Mateo, Luis Torrens, and any of the recent July 2 signees?

Jeff Moore: No unfortunately. Tampa is four hours away and its one of the worst drives around. Driving through central Florida is brutal. The drive from SE Florida to Tampa actually involves a stop at a place called Yeehaw Junction and a gas station that serves pasta. I'm not kidding.

Of course, if any or all of those July 2 guys come stateside next year, either for spring training or on the GCL roster, I'm going to suck it up and make a trip. Can't miss all that talent. I may even stop off for a fill up/ravioli.

Pete (witness protection): The Brewers' draft strategy seemed to be to overdraft Medeiros in order to sign two more over-slot picks, but then they picked high-risk guys who are old for their draft class with both of those. Isn't that just a complete failure to learn from history? When employing that strategy don't you have to go young?

Jeff Moore: In general, I'm not a huge fan of any draft strategy that isn't "draft the best player available." I don't like the whole "reach for your first pick so you can over-spend on your next one." The only time you should reach for a player is if you truly believe he's the best player available. The Cubs selection of Schwarber at 4 was considered a reach at the time, but had nothing to do with money. They thought he was the best guy available. I'm not a fan of trying to manipulate the slotting system (I'm also not a fan of the slotting system, but that's a different argument). Just take the best player available.

Pelecos (Granville): If I was to go on a minor league road trip over the summer starting in Chicago and ending up in Charleston, what are the must see parks/teams in that vicinity?

Jeff Moore: I wish I could be more of a help. I don't travel in that area much, but you should pass a ton of stadiums. In my experience, even old, crummy minor league stadiums are fun. If you are driving anywhere near a park, stop and take in a game. The new parks are nice because of the amenities, but the old ones are fun because of the history. There are very few minor league stadiums I've been to that I wish I hadn't gone to. If you're unsure, check out who's playing. That's usually the best deciding factor.

Sounds like a fun trip.

Bud (AZ): What kind of value would Dan Vogelbach hold in a trade to an American League team? Could he be a primary piece for an average or better everyday player or starting pitcher?

Jeff Moore: He has more value to an AL team than to the Cubs. Even if he improves his defense, he's not going to unseat Rizzo, who seems firmly entrenched now. He probably wouldn't get too much right now just by himself, but if he has some success in Double-A, he could really increase his value. It's awfully tough to be more than a 3 win player as a DH, but he could get to that point. If they wanted to re-acquire a guy like Jason Hammel, Vogelbach might get it done straight up if he has a good season this year.

Festivus313 (Pittsburgh): Where does Frederis Parra go to start 2015?

Jeff Moore: You're guess is as good as mine. I still have yet to hear a good answer as to why he didn't get out of the GCL this year. From a talent standpoint, he's ready for full-season ball next year. Heck, I think he was ready this year. The Cardinals know what they're doing, so I assume they have their reasons and I assume they have something to do with getting acclimated to life in the states. Despite being 19, this was his first time stateside. If he's being held back, it has to be for a non-baseball reason. Assuming he can handle it off the field, he has to go to the Midwest League for a challenge next season, and even that shouldn't be too much of a hurdle for him.

I really like Parra.

YourVanCs (Vancouver): I saw your blurb on Roberto Osuna after his first AFL appearance. Did anyone you know actually get eyes on him? Curious if guys were barreling him up or a bit unlucky? Also wonder if he was working on (ie throwing specifically) one particular pitch.

Jeff Moore: None of our guys are out there yet, unfortunately, but that will be remedied soon. We have at least one person heading out next week, I believe, and then there's an army of us heading out the last week in October. You'll hear all about it if you follow us on Twitter. You may actually get some baseball information out of it instead of just nonsense about sandwiches. Any questions I get about specific AFL'ers, I'm going to make a note of and try to answer somewhere once I get out there to see the guys in question.

JSappington (IL): Jeff, obviously the teams that perform the best during the regular season don't always win the WS. It's also obvious that whatever team wins the WS had some sort of luck involved. What variables would you contribute to the "luck" factor that can come into effect with such SSS?

Jeff Moore: In the post-season, it's just about execution. Does a guy make the pitch or not? Does he hit the pitcher's mistake or not? It's that simple in October because the talent levels are so even and the sample sizes are so small. This is why we put managerial decisions under such a microscope in October. In general, managerial decisions get overblown during the regular season, but when one pitch can make the difference between going home or advancing, the guy throwing that pitch makes a big difference. This is why it made no sense that Matt Williams was comfortable having his entire season come down to Aaron Barrett when Tyler Clippard was available. This is why letting Hunter Strickland continue to face lefties who can hit fastballs makes no sense. This is why giving up an out in the second inning with you two hitter is a bad idea. No one has any idea how a decision will turn out, but the manager has to put his team in the best position for the dice to come up in his favor. Luck matters, but you have to make sure that the odds are on your side as well.

cracker73 (Florida): What are your thoughts on Wil Myers? Does he still project to be a good MLB hitter?

Jeff Moore: Sure looks like the league got a book on him, doesn't it? He was hurt, so I'm not writing him off yet, the league has adjusted. It's his turn to adjust back. This happens with every player. They come up, and their success is largely based on their talent level. Then the league figures out how to attack them. The league adjusts. Their career trajectory depends completely on their ability to adjust back. He's still just as talented as he ever was. Can he adjust to what the league has figured out about him? Some can, some can't. We'll see.

Jeff Moore: Ok everyone, the questions are starting to dwindle so we're going to wrap it up. Thanks for all the participation!

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