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2019 Projections (Rest of Season Projections - seasonal age 26)
| PA | AVG | HR | R | RBI | SB | DRC+ | WARP |
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WARP Summary
MLB Statistics
| YEAR | TEAM | AGE | G | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | DRC+ | DRAA | BRR | FRAA | BWARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | WAS | 19 | 139 | 597 | 144 | 26 | 9 | 22 | 56 | 120 | 2 | 18 | 6 | .270 | .340 | .477 | 115 | 10.6 | 5.6 | 11.6 | 4.6 |
| 2013 | WAS | 20 | 118 | 497 | 116 | 24 | 3 | 20 | 61 | 94 | 5 | 11 | 4 | .274 | .368 | .486 | 127 | 15.5 | -0.6 | 4.9 | 3.3 |
| 2014 | WAS | 21 | 100 | 395 | 96 | 10 | 2 | 13 | 38 | 104 | 1 | 2 | 2 | .273 | .344 | .423 | 106 | 2.8 | -1.9 | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| 2015 | WAS | 22 | 153 | 654 | 172 | 38 | 1 | 42 | 124 | 131 | 5 | 6 | 4 | .330 | .460 | .649 | 187 | 68.5 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 9.9 |
| 2016 | WAS | 23 | 147 | 627 | 123 | 24 | 2 | 24 | 108 | 117 | 3 | 21 | 10 | .243 | .373 | .441 | 118 | 14.9 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.4 |
| 2017 | WAS | 24 | 111 | 492 | 134 | 27 | 1 | 29 | 68 | 99 | 1 | 4 | 2 | .319 | .413 | .595 | 147 | 30.2 | -1.3 | -3.4 | 3.5 |
| 2018 | WAS | 25 | 159 | 695 | 137 | 34 | 0 | 34 | 130 | 169 | 6 | 13 | 3 | .249 | .393 | .496 | 126 | 23.8 | -3.2 | -12.1 | 2.5 |
| 2019 | PHI | 26 | 97 | 424 | 92 | 27 | 0 | 17 | 63 | 112 | 3 | 5 | 3 | .258 | .373 | .478 | 113 | 8.9 | -4.0 | 4.1 | 1.7 |
| Career | 1024 | 4381 | 1014 | 210 | 18 | 201 | 648 | 946 | 26 | 80 | 34 | .277 | .386 | .509 | 132 | 175.3 | 2.0 | 16.8 | 29.7 | ||
Statistics for All Levels
'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.Minor league stats are currently shown —Click to hide.
| YEAR | Team | Lg | LG | G | PA | oppAVG | oppOBP | oppSLG | BABIP | BPF | BRAA | repLVL | POS_ADJ | DRC+ | DRC+ SD | FRAA | BRR | DRAA | BWARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | HAG | A | SAL | 72 | 305 | .266 | .338 | .403 | .372 | 107 | 19.6 | 8.8 | -2.2 | 163 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 15.2 | 2.7 |
| 2011 | HAR | AA | EAS | 37 | 147 | .256 | .323 | .389 | .294 | 83 | 2.9 | 4.3 | -1 | 100 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.9 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| 2012 | WAS | MLB | NL | 139 | 597 | .252 | .315 | .400 | .310 | 101 | 16.5 | 16.4 | -1.2 | 115 | 10 | 11.6 | 5.6 | 10.6 | 4.6 |
| 2012 | SYR | AAA | INT | 21 | 84 | .255 | .325 | .378 | .288 | 98 | -0.4 | 2.5 | -0.2 | 89 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.3 | -0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2013 | WAS | MLB | NL | 118 | 497 | .249 | .310 | .384 | .306 | 102 | 21.7 | 13.1 | -3 | 127 | 11 | 4.9 | -0.6 | 15.5 | 3.3 |
| 2013 | POT | A+ | CAR | 2 | 5 | .248 | .298 | .379 | .500 | 114 | 1.7 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 207 | 0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 2013 | HAR | AA | EAS | 2 | 9 | .231 | .303 | .347 | .500 | 105 | 0.9 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 96 | 0 | -0.3 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2014 | WAS | MLB | NL | 100 | 395 | .249 | .310 | .379 | .352 | 101 | 10.1 | 10.2 | -2.3 | 106 | 10 | 0.4 | -1.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2014 | POT | A+ | CAR | 2 | 6 | .281 | .320 | .419 | .667 | 96 | 3 | 0.2 | 0 | 257 | 0 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 2014 | HAR | AA | EAS | 3 | 13 | .265 | .326 | .412 | .500 | 101 | 5.5 | 0.4 | -0.1 | 310 | 0 | -0.3 | -0.2 | 2.8 | 0.3 |
| 2015 | WAS | MLB | NL | 153 | 654 | .251 | .315 | .403 | .369 | 95 | 83.5 | 17.7 | -6 | 187 | 7 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 68.5 | 9.9 |
| 2016 | WAS | MLB | NL | 147 | 627 | .257 | .323 | .416 | .264 | 90 | 30.7 | 17.7 | -6.5 | 118 | 8 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 14.9 | 3.4 |
| 2017 | WAS | MLB | NL | 111 | 492 | .263 | .331 | .442 | .356 | 98 | 39.5 | 14.4 | -5.3 | 147 | 10 | -3.4 | -1.3 | 30.2 | 3.5 |
| 2018 | WAS | MLB | NL | 159 | 695 | .246 | .316 | .400 | .289 | 100 | 40.6 | 19.5 | -3.9 | 126 | 7 | -12.1 | -3.2 | 23.8 | 2.5 |
| 2019 | PHI | MLB | NL | 97 | 424 | .254 | .321 | .428 | .328 | 98 | 14.6 | 12.8 | -4.8 | 113 | 7 | 4.1 | -4.0 | 8.9 | 1.7 |
Statistics For All Levels
Minor league stats are currently shown —Click to hide.| Year | Team | lvl | LG | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | TB | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | ISO | SF | SH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | HAG | A | SAL | 305 | 258 | 49 | 82 | 17 | 1 | 14 | 143 | 46 | 44 | 61 | 19 | 5 | .318 | .423 | .554 | .236 | 0 | 0 |
| 2011 | HAR | AA | EAS | 147 | 129 | 14 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 51 | 12 | 15 | 26 | 7 | 2 | .256 | .329 | .395 | .140 | 2 | 1 |
| 2012 | SYR | AAA | INT | 84 | 74 | 8 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 1 | 1 | .243 | .325 | .365 | .122 | 0 | 1 |
| 2012 | WAS | MLB | NL | 597 | 533 | 98 | 144 | 26 | 9 | 22 | 254 | 59 | 56 | 120 | 18 | 6 | .270 | .340 | .477 | .206 | 3 | 3 |
| 2013 | HAR | AA | EAS | 9 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .286 | .444 | .571 | .286 | 0 | 0 |
| 2013 | WAS | MLB | NL | 497 | 424 | 71 | 116 | 24 | 3 | 20 | 206 | 58 | 61 | 94 | 11 | 4 | .274 | .368 | .486 | .212 | 4 | 3 |
| 2013 | POT | A+ | CAR | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .600 | 1.500 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 |
| 2014 | HAR | AA | EAS | 13 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | .600 | .692 | 1.600 | 1.000 | 0 | |
| 2014 | WAS | MLB | NL | 395 | 352 | 41 | 96 | 10 | 2 | 13 | 149 | 32 | 38 | 104 | 2 | 2 | .273 | .344 | .423 | .151 | 1 | |
| 2014 | POT | A+ | CAR | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .750 | .833 | 1.500 | .750 | 0 | |
| 2015 | WAS | MLB | NL | 654 | 521 | 118 | 172 | 38 | 1 | 42 | 338 | 99 | 124 | 131 | 6 | 4 | .330 | .460 | .649 | .319 | 4 | 0 |
| 2016 | WAS | MLB | NL | 627 | 506 | 84 | 123 | 24 | 2 | 24 | 223 | 86 | 108 | 117 | 21 | 10 | .243 | .373 | .441 | .198 | 10 | 0 |
| 2017 | WAS | MLB | NL | 492 | 420 | 95 | 134 | 27 | 1 | 29 | 250 | 87 | 68 | 99 | 4 | 2 | .319 | .413 | .595 | .276 | 3 | 0 |
| 2018 | WAS | MLB | NL | 695 | 550 | 103 | 137 | 34 | 0 | 34 | 273 | 100 | 130 | 169 | 13 | 3 | .249 | .393 | .496 | .247 | 9 | 0 |
| 2019 | PHI | MLB | NL | 424 | 356 | 56 | 92 | 27 | 0 | 17 | 170 | 69 | 63 | 112 | 5 | 3 | .258 | .373 | .478 | .219 | 2 | 0 |
Plate Discipline
| YEAR | Pits | Zone% | Swing% | Contact% | Z-Swing% | O-Swing% | Z-Contact% | O-Contact% | SwStr% | CSAA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 2306 | 0.4289 | 0.4957 | 0.7437 | 0.7199 | 0.3273 | 0.8497 | 0.5684 | 0.2563 | -0.0004 |
| 2013 | 1945 | 0.4468 | 0.4817 | 0.7545 | 0.7066 | 0.3002 | 0.8420 | 0.5882 | 0.2455 | -0.0054 |
| 2014 | 1520 | 0.4783 | 0.5020 | 0.6999 | 0.7194 | 0.3026 | 0.8011 | 0.4792 | 0.3001 | 0.0034 |
| 2015 | 2619 | 0.4242 | 0.4456 | 0.7284 | 0.6769 | 0.2752 | 0.8231 | 0.5566 | 0.2716 | -0.0082 |
| 2016 | 2468 | 0.4445 | 0.4271 | 0.7676 | 0.6354 | 0.2604 | 0.8379 | 0.6303 | 0.2324 | 0.0000 |
| 2017 | 1947 | 0.4510 | 0.4910 | 0.7301 | 0.6868 | 0.3302 | 0.8242 | 0.5694 | 0.2699 | 0.0000 |
| 2018 | 2870 | 0.4460 | 0.4537 | 0.6828 | 0.6820 | 0.2698 | 0.7526 | 0.5408 | 0.3172 | 0.0000 |
| 2019 | 1726 | 0.4496 | 0.4849 | 0.6619 | 0.7036 | 0.3063 | 0.7656 | 0.4674 | 0.3381 | 0.0000 |
| Career | 17401 | 0.4441 | 0.4689 | 0.7225 | 0.6883 | 0.2935 | 0.8117 | 0.5554 | 0.2775 | -0.0016 |
Injury History — No longer being updated | Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET |
| Date On | Date Off | Transaction | Days | Games | Side | Body Part | Injury | Severity | Surgery Date | Reaggravation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-09-16 | 2014-09-16 | DTD | 0 | 0 | - | General Medical | Illness | - | ||
| 2014-04-26 | 2014-06-30 | 15-DL | 65 | 57 | Left | Thumb | Surgery | Ulnar Collateral Ligament Sliding | 2014-04-29 | - |
| 2014-04-16 | 2014-04-17 | DTD | 1 | 1 | Left | Thigh | Strain | Quadriceps | - | - |
| 2014-04-15 | 2014-04-15 | DTD | 0 | 0 | - | Thigh | Tightness | Quadriceps | - | - |
| 2014-03-14 | 2014-03-15 | Camp | 1 | 0 | - | General Medical | Illness | - | - | |
| 2014-03-02 | 2014-03-04 | Camp | 2 | 0 | - | General Medical | Illness | - | - | |
| 2013-10-23 | 2013-10-23 | Off | 0 | 0 | Left | Knee | Surgery | Bursa | 2013-10-23 | - |
| 2013-09-07 | 2013-09-11 | DTD | 4 | 4 | Left | Hip | Inflammation | - | - | |
| 2013-09-04 | 2013-09-06 | DTD | 2 | 1 | Left | Hip | Soreness | - | - | |
| 2013-08-17 | 2013-08-18 | DTD | 1 | 1 | Left | Arm | Contusion | HBP on Triceps | - | - |
| 2013-08-13 | 2013-08-14 | DTD | 1 | 1 | - | General Medical | Illness | - | - | |
| 2013-08-01 | 2013-08-02 | DTD | 1 | 0 | - | Hip | Spasms | - | - | |
| 2013-07-25 | 2013-07-25 | DTD | 0 | 0 | Left | Knee | Soreness | - | - | |
| 2013-05-27 | 2013-07-01 | 15-DL | 35 | 31 | Left | Knee | Bursitis | - | - | |
| 2013-05-18 | 2013-05-20 | DTD | 2 | 2 | Left | Knee | Contusion | Running Into Wall | - | - |
| 2013-05-14 | 2013-05-15 | DTD | 1 | 1 | - | Face | Laceration | Running Into Outfield Wall and Needed Stitches | - | - |
| 2013-05-11 | 2013-05-12 | DTD | 1 | 1 | Right | Ingrown Nail | Great Toe | - | - | |
| 2013-05-02 | 2013-05-02 | DTD | 0 | 0 | Right | Shoulder | Contusion | Latissimus Dorsi From Running Into Wall | - | - |
| 2013-04-16 | 2013-04-17 | DTD | 1 | 1 | - | General Medical | Illness | - | - | |
| 2013-03-23 | 2013-03-24 | Camp | 1 | 0 | Left | Thumb | Swelling | Jammed By Pitch | - | - |
| 2012-07-28 | 2012-07-29 | DTD | 1 | 1 | - | General Medical | Illness | GI | - | - |
| 2012-07-21 | 2012-07-21 | DTD | 0 | 0 | Left | Ankle | Contusion | - | - | |
| 2012-06-09 | 2012-06-09 | DTD | 0 | 0 | - | Low Back | Soreness | - | - | |
| 2012-05-31 | 2012-06-02 | DTD | 2 | 0 | Right | Foot | Contusion | Foul Ball | - | - |
| 2012-05-12 | 2012-05-12 | DTD | 0 | 0 | Left | Face | Laceration | Bat After Dugout Frustration | - | - |
| 2012-03-07 | 2012-03-14 | Camp | 7 | 0 | Left | Lower Leg | Tightness | Calf | - | - |
| 2011-08-19 | 2011-09-06 | Minors | 18 | 18 | Right | Thigh | Strain | Hamstring | - | - |
| 2011-06-26 | 2011-06-29 | Minors | 3 | 3 | Left | Thumb | Contusion | - | - | |
| 2011-06-18 | 2011-06-21 | Minors | 3 | 2 | Left | Thumb | Sprain | - | - | |
| 2011-06-05 | 2011-06-05 | Minors | 0 | 0 | Left | Knee | Contusion | HBP | - | - |
| 2011-03-21 | 2011-03-28 | Camp | 7 | 0 | Left | Ankle | Sprain | - | - | |
| 2011-03-19 | 2011-03-19 | On-Alr | 0 | 0 | - | General Medical | Illness | - | - |
Compensation
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2019 Preseason Forecast | Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET |
| PCT | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | DRC+ | VORP | FRAA | WARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90o | 289 | 44 | 71 | 15 | 1 | 14 | 44 | 47 | 62 | 5 | 2 | .298 | .415 | .546 | 155 | 27.5 | RF -4 | 2.4 |
| 80o | 274 | 41 | 65 | 14 | 1 | 13 | 41 | 44 | 60 | 5 | 2 | .286 | .404 | .529 | 149 | 23.6 | RF -3 | 2.0 |
| 70o | 264 | 39 | 61 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 39 | 41 | 58 | 5 | 2 | .279 | .394 | .511 | 145 | 20.9 | RF -3 | 1.7 |
| 60o | 255 | 37 | 57 | 12 | 1 | 11 | 36 | 39 | 57 | 4 | 2 | .269 | .384 | .491 | 141 | 18.8 | RF -3 | 1.6 |
| 50o | 246 | 35 | 55 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 35 | 37 | 56 | 4 | 2 | .268 | .382 | .493 | 138 | 16.9 | RF -3 | 1.4 |
| 40o | 237 | 33 | 52 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 33 | 35 | 54 | 4 | 2 | .261 | .374 | .477 | 135 | 15.0 | RF -3 | 1.2 |
| 30o | 228 | 31 | 49 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 31 | 33 | 53 | 4 | 1 | .255 | .367 | .474 | 131 | 13.2 | RF -3 | 1.1 |
| 20o | 218 | 29 | 46 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 31 | 51 | 4 | 1 | .250 | .362 | .462 | 127 | 11.1 | RF -3 | 0.9 |
| 10o | 203 | 26 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 28 | 48 | 3 | 1 | .238 | .347 | .430 | 121 | 8.5 | RF -3 | 0.6 |
| Weighted Mean | 247 | 35 | 56 | 12 | 1 | 11 | 35 | 37 | 56 | 4 | 2 | .272 | .385 | .500 | 138 | 17.1 | RF -3 | 1.4 |
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BP Articles
Click here to see articles tagged with Bryce HarperBP Chats
| Date | Question | Answer |
|---|---|---|
| 2019-06-03 19:00:00 (link to chat) | Saying a certain draftee is the next big thing seems to be overused these days. How can we be certain Andrew Vaughn, the "best hitter in college baseball" will be a surefire big-league success? (Geoffrey from Lombard, IL) | Those who make those kind of grand predictions are doing so just to feed the hot take machine. I wouldn't classify anyone in this draft as "the next best thing" even though some had Adley as the best draft prospect since Bryce Harper. There is a lot of talent, but a lot of risk, with all of the players selected tonight. (Keanan Lamb) |
| 2019-02-14 12:00:00 (link to chat) | The last few chats I have visited included comments from readers about Bryce Harper being overrated. Are you kidding me? (Buddy from Peoria) | So while I don't agree with this, I do think there is an interesting question in what to expect from Harper going forward. What's the baseline production going forward? PECOTA sees a 137 DRC+ and 4.6 WARP, which he's only beat twice in his career, but also feels low as a true talent play. I think they larger issue is we don't know exactly how to rate him at this exact moment. (I'd still back up the Brinks trunk for him mind you, as a 25-year-old 5-win projected player) (Jeffrey Paternostro) |
| 2019-02-14 12:00:00 (link to chat) | What do you predict for the Nats in this next season? What can they do to make it playoffs in the next 3 seasons? (baseballgurl from Philadelphia, PA) | They are in reasonably good shape barring the Phillies actually spending some of their stupid money, or the Mets starting pitching staying healthier than they have since 2015. They could also just sign Bryce Harper. That would help. I wouldn't call them the favorite, but I also don't really see a favorite in that division. They are gonna run into starting pitching depth issues soon though and the farm is pretty barren past Robles/Kieboom. They could flip Garcia for help if need be I suppose. (Jeffrey Paternostro) |
| 2018-12-18 13:00:00 (link to chat) | A lot of people expected free-agent signings to rebound this offseason relative to last offseason due to the superior talent available this time around. It also seems like more teams may be treating the luxury tax like a salary cap. What's your early read on how free-agent signing is shaping up right now? Bryce Harper sure picked a bad time to have his second-worst season by WARP, didn't he? (Alec Denton from Atlanta) | I think it's early to make the call on this free agent class. Let's see how things pick up in January. It hasn't been a drought. Corbin did well for himself. So did Brantley, so did Eovaldi, arguably so did McCutchen, and only Corbin of those four was belle-of-the-ball status. As for Harper, he hit .300/.434/.538 after the break, and his WARP was polluted by terrible defensive numbers that several people smarter than I (e.g., Ben Lindbergh at The Ringer) pointed out may be the product of, well, some self-preservation tactics he took in the outfield last year. I think the suitors will see through that. This isn't like Jonathan Lucroy turning into a pumpkin in his walk year. (Rob Mains) |
| 2018-12-10 16:00:00 (link to chat) | Strictly for long-term fantasy, would you rather have Bryce Harper or Manny Machado? (NOT A GM from FRONT OFFICE) | It's super close. I'll still take Harper for his supreme on-base skills and the chance that he has a 50-plus homer year in him (which is definitely still possible, I think). (Darius Austin) |
| 2018-12-06 20:00:00 (link to chat) | GIVE ME MY DRAFT ALTERNATIVE YOU LINT LICKER (UNION MAN from DRIVING TO YOUR HOUSE) | I'd basically do it like the pre-cap J2 system, where all players became eligible to sign on the first July 2nd after the earlier of their high school graduation or 18th birthday, and remained eligible to sign at any time with no bonus restrictions. If you want to go to college for four years, go to college for four years. If you want to sign out of high school, sign out of high school. If you want to be a one-and-done, do that. The way it's done now doesn't encourage an education, it doesn't help college baseball, and it only serves to restrict draft prices.
I would also allow for an exceptional player rule, similar to what the CHL has for their draft, where a Bryce Harper sort of talent could petition to be entered into an earlier class than they otherwise would be. (Jarrett Seidler) |
| 2018-09-10 14:00:00 (link to chat) | Hi Darius. I'm new to playing dynasty baseball and prospects aren't really my thing. I just joined a league and was almost immediately offered Giancarlo Stanton and Bryce Harper for Drew Waters. That seems crazy to me. What am I missing? Should I accept? I'm afraid Waters might be the next Ronald Acuna and don't want to trade that away for anything. (Jessica from Colorado) | You should hit accept before you finish reading this answer. Waters is an exciting prospect with a ton of tools who could be a star in the majors, and even if that happens it would be an incredible outcome if he can produce like either Stanton or Harper. Getting both of them is ludicrous, and I would expect your other leaguemates to complain vociferously. (Darius Austin) |
| 2018-09-10 14:00:00 (link to chat) | Justin Mason is mad. He's conducting mock 2019 fantasy baseball drafts this weekend.
Which players do you see infiltrating the top 10 picks in 2019 compared to this season's ADP top 10? Jose Ramirez? Aaron Judge? Chris Sale? And who do we see dropping out? Kershaw? Harper? Stanton?
(2018 ADP)
1 Mike Trout
2 Jose Altuve
3 Nolan Arenado
4 Trea Turner
5 Clayton Kershaw
6 Bryce Harper
7 Paul Goldschmidt
8 Giancarlo Stanton
9 Charlie Blackmon
10 Mookie Betts (Tom Pringle from UK) | He is. I think it's the lack of sleep. Ramirez is a no-doubter - forget top 10, he's top 5. Judge's injury probably stops him, although I think he and Sale will be borderline. Kershaw will be out, as will Blackmon, and probablg Goldschmidt. Bryce has been really good for a couple of months now and I think a good last three weeks might just keep him in there. (Darius Austin) |
| 2018-07-30 23:00:00 (link to chat) | Who's the last HS batter to make AA the year after his draft? Unrelated question: how good is Jo Adell? (jgaztambide from Jo Adell's basement) | It's really uncommon! Justin Upton did it, he's the most recent one that comes to mind...uh...Eric Chavez...Ken Griffey Jr. dominated San Bernardino just like Adell and forced a AA promotion in his first full season after the draft in 88 too, if you wanna get old skool for a parallel post-draft trajectory. Technically Bryce Harper got drafted out of a JuCo, but by age he probably warrants a nod given particular circumstances? Um...uh...Royce Lewis could theoretically pull it off if he keeps raking and forces the issue next month. I'm sure there are some others, but bottom line is that it's a super rare feat of strength and a testament to the fact that Jo Adell is really, really good: https://twitter.com/vocaljavelins/status/1022322974379073541 (Wilson Karaman) |
| 2018-07-24 20:00:00 (link to chat) | 20-Team Keep Forever Dynasty: Bryce Harper, Carter Kieboom, Rd 1 pick, Rd 2 Pick (2-round draft, 40 picks total) for Juan Soto, Josh Hader, Shohei Ohtani (pitching version). Team getting Harper side is in the bottom 3, team getting Soto side is in top 5, fair deal? (AJ from Phoenix) | Fair, yes. I like the Harper side more despite my love of Juan Soto. (Scooter Hotz) |
| 2018-06-28 13:00:00 (link to chat) | When does Strasburg end a season as the #1 SP? (Nats from DC) | Never? Like Bryce Harper, it's safe to say that Stras has talent, and his floor may be high. But he has to stay healthy, and I just don't see this ever happening for him. He's not a bum, but I'll never pick him to go #1. (Kevin Jebens) |
| 2018-07-26 12:00:00 (link to chat) | I stopped caring about fantasy baseball so I just traded away Bryce Harper to my friend for a bunch of whatever prospects and Jake Lamb. I think that was a steal for one of us. (Jordan from South Dakota) | Are you the same dude? (Bryan Grosnick) |
| 2018-05-17 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Just how good is Juan Soto? (Dylan from Hartford) | Really great, so far. Our prospect team has been out in front of that hype train, but I think he's got a very high ceiling thanks to his hit tool and approach. I'd love to see him as a Christian Yelich type in the bigs ... with a chance to be better ... but I do have a little concern about early-career leg injuries. For sure, he'll make Bryce Harper's impending departure from Washington a bit more palatable. (Bryan Grosnick) |
| 2018-02-05 12:00:00 (link to chat) | Is there a “Next Big Thing†out there that has the hype like Bryce Harper did when he was in high school? Someone that’s not currently in the Top 101, but will be a fast riser, and can be a high schooler, college guy, international player, or a guy in the minors. If not who will be the guy that rises the most in next years rankings like Acuna did? (SNDestroyU from Illinois) | Harper was on the cover of Sports Illustrated as an amateur and declared a future perennial MVP candidate at 16. So, no, there is not. We talked about a few breakout candidates on the pod, but if you want a non-101 guy, Khalil Lee, Brandon Marsh (although I am personally lower on him than others), and yeah, Wander Javier. Brusdar Graterol and Chris Rodriguez are the arms that come to mind.
And a note on Acuna: I'm not one for victory-lapping, but we were well ahead of the industry on him, and that is a tribute to the work that David Lee did in the Sally in 2016. (Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro) |
| 2018-02-23 20:00:00 (link to chat) | i'm in an obp 5x5 league and I had to undergo a rebuild, it netted me cody bellinger and now i'm being asked to give him and 2 top tier(buehler, and one of Espinoza,morejon) pitching prospects for Bryce Harper. am I stupid for still considering it. my top pitchers are snell and reyes and they weren't included. (spotted cow from winnebago, IL) | No, you’re not stupid. Stop considering it though. Bellinger and one of those guys would be close, maybe, but two is a no for me. (Scott Delp) |
| 2017-10-12 20:00:00 (link to chat) | What's the most heartbreaking way the Nationals can lose this game? (cowhitchurch from Austin, TX) | Anything involving Bryce Harper getting injured as the Cubs clinch. (Nick Schaefer) |
| 2017-09-07 20:00:00 (link to chat) | Thanks for the chat. So if new Marlins management (read: Jeter) insists on going through with it, which team has the proper alignment of need, finances and assets to pull off a deal for Stanton? What might that deal look like? (wileecoyote121 from Mamaroneck, NY) | The Angels have the need and the finances but not the assets. The Diamondbacks might be a good match on all three fronts if they don't re-sign J.D. Martinez. The Yankees could always be a player, although if Judge bounces back from his second-half struggles and the rumors about Bryce Harper wanting to play in the Bronx are true, there might be a roster issue. The Red Sox seem to have their outfield situation set for the next few years. The Nats could be a player, especially if they expect to loser Harper. The Brewers are an interesting possibility since they've been stockpiling cash and prospects and might be getting close to cashing them in. And you never know what Jerry Dipoto might do in Seattle. (Scooter Hotz) |
| 2017-08-24 19:00:00 (link to chat) | Greetings, Ben. If you had to hang your hat on one guy becoming a superduperstar, who would it be out of Fernando Tatis, Jr, Forest Whitley, Juan Soto, or Bo Bichette? (Gleyber from Rehab) | Hey Gleyber, hope your elbow's feeling better.
To answer your question, gimme the Dominican Bryce Harper in Juan Soto. That nickname *might* be a bit of an exaggeration, but Little Miggy is doing okay now, I guess. I love Whitley, but pitchers gonna pitcher, and I'm not quite sold on Bichette's real upside just yet. Tatis is right under Soto, but I can't stop thinking about the impact Soto's bat could have in the big leagues. (Ben Diamond) |
| 2017-07-06 12:00:00 (link to chat) | Uh, who has been calling Juan Soto "the Dominican Bryce Harper"? (AJ from Nantucket) | I can't reveal the source for that one, but it was somewhat tongue-in-cheek (Jeffrey Paternostro) |
| 2017-04-28 13:30:00 (link to chat) | Because he is so good at hitting the dang ball, Manfred tells Bryce Harper he can make up 1 stupid silly rule to make baseball fun again. As he is too busy with the aforementioned dongers, he delegates this task to you. What stupid silly rule do you create? (DTH from SF) | I don't really have a silly rule I've been dying to implement, I guess. Mostly I just want at least one 1 pm and one 4 pm (eastern) game every day. (Craig Goldstein) |
| 2017-03-16 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Should the Yankees sign Bryce Harper for 400 million or Manny Machado for 400 million? (Gary from Nome ) | Machado. (Matthew Trueblood) |
| 2017-03-09 20:00:00 (link to chat) | Who are a few deep league prospects that could really emerge and be top prospects in the next 2-3 years and be fantasy studs in there prime. You can include possible breakout prospects, international players, college & high school kids. Any of them hyped like Bryce Harper was in his early high school career? (Cubs Fan 69 from Illinois) | Geez, so we're allowed to mention the entire Israeli national team? It's a tough question to answer from our perspective, because we're not out there every day on the back fields. Oh, lord, to be on the back fields. Tetsuto Yamada has gotten some Mock Draft love in the past, although his approach, height, and lack of position doesn't scream "stardom" to me. We're into Jeren Kendall, as mentioned earlier, and as anyone who's ever listened to us for more than about 20 minutes would suspect, we think J.J. Schwarz, a TTO-based catcher with defensive issues, is exactly our kind of Scoresheet prospect. (Ben Murphy, Ian Lefkowitz and Jared Weiss) |
| 2016-12-15 13:00:00 (link to chat) | I'm sick of losing and sick of seeing my son playing in meaningless games! Who says no to: Frazier, Judge, Mateo, Montgomery, and Adams for my boy Mikey? Assuming Sanchez is untouchable, what else would need to be added (Mike Trout's Dad from Not the Bronx, yet) | I think L.A. says no. The Yankees would have to give up Sanchez and basically clear out the farm. I think Yankees fans should stop thinking about Trout and get ready for Bryce Harper. (Kenny Ducey) |
| 2016-12-22 13:00:00 (link to chat) | What are the chances the Orioles actually re-sign Manny Machado before he hits free agency, and do so while still being able to roster a competitive team? (Alex from B-More) | Nope! I bet Machado hits the open market and takes all the money. (Well, all the money that Bryce Harper doesn't get.) Assuming that the Orioles WERE able to pay top dollar and retain Machado, yes, I do believe they can still roster a competitive team. They still need to figure out how to do something else with their pitching staff, though. (Bryan Grosnick) |
| 2016-09-26 20:00:00 (link to chat) | If you had to pick five under-25 players with the best HOF chances, who would you go with?
(Erik from Duluth,MN) | A few days ago, I would have led this list with Jose Fernandez.
In no particular order: Noah Syndergaard, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Francisco Lindor (Scooter Hotz) |
| 2016-09-07 19:00:00 (link to chat) | Who is the Roman Reigns of baseball and why? (Nick from Over) | I mean, isn't it Bryce Harper? Harper's very good, and so is Reigns, but neither is quite the best. He's popular within a certain sect, but gets booed, largely for what he represents. And they're both super-pushed. (Jarrett Seidler) |
| 2016-08-08 14:00:00 (link to chat) | What's wrong with Bryce Harper? (Kingpin from Grinnell, IA) | Harper seems to be over-swinging and opening himself up too much, at least to my (relatively) untrained eye. It's likely a symptom of pitchers simply not giving him anything too juicy to hit, so he's overcompensating by trying to smash anything that comes remotely close.
His strikeout rate is also *down* this year, so there's that. I wouldn't get too worried. There's way too much talent here for this to persist into next season. He'll make the adjustments. (Nicolas Stellini) |
| 2016-05-17 14:00:00 (link to chat) | In how many seasons of the next 10 (2016–25) do the Yankees finish above .500? (hdruschel from Bahston) | They're gonna be teetering on the edge this year and next, most likely, but you have to imagine that once the ugly contracts start coming off the books that they'll start getting schwifty in free agency again.
(Note: this is not a Bryce Harper comment. But, you know, Bryce Harper. I eagerly anticipate you all getting angry at me on Twitter.) Plus, they actually have real minor league talent now. (Nicolas Stellini) |
| 2016-05-19 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Should the Yankees change their facial hair policy so they can get Bryce Harper? (Becky from With The Good Hair) | so - here's a little secret - the Yankees are sort of lenient with their policy. A lot of their players go days without shaving, showing up with scruff. So I'm not entirely sure they're going to come down hard on Bryce if he forgets his razor on a short road trip. I will say I don't mind the rule. I'm all for making baseball fun again, and embracing personality, but it's almost like an office dress code, in a sense. Why is it so wrong to make sure everyone looks neat and clean? That's all. You can still flip your bat, and celebrate, and stuff.
They'll get Bryce regardless of whether or not they change their policy. (Kenny Ducey) |
| 2016-05-12 13:00:00 (link to chat) | First of all, this is just a for fun question. If the Nationals were going to try and trade Harper, which teams have the horses to land him? Cubs? Giants? Dodgers?
For the Cubs example, who all would it take to get Harper? (BC from Urbandale) | I just tried to trade Mike Trout, now I gotta try and trade Bryce Harper? FUN FOR WHO? FUN FOR WHO???
I'd want Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, an early viewing of Episode VIII, and a dune buggy that shoots fire. (Christopher Crawford) |
| 2016-04-21 19:00:00 (link to chat) | Which season would you take:
1. 2010 Josh Hamilton
2. 2012 Josh Hamilton - only 16th player in MLB history to hit 4 HR's in a game
3. 2016 Bryce Harper
4. 2016 Mike Trout (Kristen from Canada) | That's a really cool/intriguing question. I would rank them Harper, Trout, 2010 Hamilton, and 2012 Hamilton. There's a gap between the latter version of Hamilton and everyone else and I thought long and hard about flipping Trout and the 2010 Hamilton. I forgot how amazing he was on offense that year. (Mike Gianella) |
| 2016-04-22 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Do you think the Yankees making the playoffs or Bryce Harper hitting 60 home runs this season is more likely (Sam from NJ) | If you said 55 I think I'd say Harper. Hear me out - this is a hot take - I don't think the Yankees are that bad. They're not contact-oriented, which causes dry spells like this one, but they'll have a two-week stretch soon where they do nothing but score runs. They're incredibly streaky. Good bullpen, sneakily OK rotation, streaky offense, They might make the playoffs the same way they did last season. (Kenny Ducey) |
| 2016-04-22 13:00:00 (link to chat) | At this point it seems pretty much guaranteed Bryce Harper is going to garner a mammoth contract when he hits free agency. Realistically, where do you think he could sign? How shocked would you be if he *didn't* sign with the Yankees? Or if he stayed with the Nationals? (Brendan from Hoboken) | I would be pretty surprised if he doesn't sign with the Yankees, frankly. They'll open up their checkbook, they should have a spot open in the outfield alongside Jacoby Ellsbury (yep, he'll still be there) and Aaron Judge, and in the order right behind Ellsbury (still there!) and Judge. He might hit 40 dingers to right field alone.
I also think he fits the city of New York incredibly well. You need a guy with his attitude (sort of like Matt Harvey). He'll welcome the attention, and become a mega star. Don't see where else he would go other than New York if he decided to leave Washington. (Kenny Ducey) |
| 2016-02-23 13:00:00 (link to chat) | My buddy made this trade in fantasy (with a couple draft picks as well):
Bryce Harper and Max Scherzer
for
Chris Sale, Miguel Sano, Kyle Schwarber and Noah Syndergaard
Is he crazy?
(Tommy from Chicago) | If he got the quartet, he won that trade in a friggin' runaway. Unless I don't understand fantasy baseball, which is totally possible. (Matthew Trueblood) |
| 2016-01-14 20:00:00 (link to chat) | Standard 5x5 NL-only keeper league; $260 salary cap; keeper salaries increase by $2, $4, $8, $16. I have Arenado $15, Duda $9, Kang $3, Odubel $5, Inciarte $5, Corbin $3, Nola $5. Would I be crazy to keep Bryce Harper at $44? (Other options would be Cesar Hernandez $5, Realmuto $5, Piscotty $5, Heyward $28.) (Kingpin from Grinnell, IA) | It's not crazy depending on the inflation, and judging by the other prices in your league inflation is goin to be high. I'd keep him over those other guys. (Mike Gianella) |
| 2015-09-09 13:00:00 (link to chat) | who's your NL MVP this year? (BC from urbandale) | It's Bryce Harper and it's not even close. (Christopher Crawford) |
| 2015-08-13 20:00:00 (link to chat) | Really sweating here, Greg. I was offered Kris Bryant and Byron Buxton for my Bryce Harper. Standard 16 team dynasty with OPS thrown on. Don't have any glaring needs. What do you think about this deal? (PJ Skizzip from New York, New York) | Harper is an absolute monster at present where Bryant is merely great, but I'll go with the duo to spread out the risk some. If they can stay healthy and approach expectations, Buxton and Bryant would be a pretty lethal pair, with coverage of all categories. (Greg Wellemeyer) |
| 2015-07-23 17:00:00 (link to chat) | Hey what's good Mike. I'm in a 6x6 dynasty (OPS and QS). I was offered Kris Bryant and Byron Buxton for my Bryce Harper and one of Jesse Winker/Sean Manaea. How close is this deal to being favorable for me, and which one of the two guys should I include? Thanks in advance man! (JT Smooth from Loveboat Cap'n) | Love your handle.
Wow, that's a pretty solid offer. I'd include Manaea if you're going to make the deal. I think if you included him that's fair, and it really depends on how much faith you have in the two guys you're getting. You take a short-term hit the next couple of years with Harper, but I think Buxton has a $30-35 value ceiling and you eventually win this trade. (Mike Gianella) |
| 2015-07-16 20:00:00 (link to chat) | Do you think Mike Trout is actually the best player in the MLB right now? If so why? (Mandy from Rhode Island ) | Hey Mandy! YES...He's second in WAR behind Bryce Harper, but I think by the end of the season he will pass Harper. From a fantasy standpoint, Harper has put together a vintage Ted Williams season so far...I still think given the fact that Trout has been this good every single year, he gets the edge in drafts next year. I'm excited to see what Harper does in the second half... (George Bissell) |
| 2015-07-16 20:00:00 (link to chat) | I'm holding onto the #1 spot for dear life. Should I trade Bryce Harper for Goldschmidt if I need points in the stolen bases category? (childgrambino from Richmond, VA) | I'm a firm believer in a superstitious way that it's really bad karma to trade away someone having a breakout season like Harper. I'm confident that he's going to continue to hit and you just don't trade away a guy like that even for Goldy. I would look to make another deal to get SB's, I keep Harper. If you're going to win a title, he's going to carry you there. (George Bissell) |
| 2015-06-30 19:00:00 (link to chat) | % chance game:
What % chance does Jose Fernandez have of winning a Cy Young?
Bryce Harper winning 2 or more MVPs?
Worldwide amateur draft by 2020?
Kris Bryant hitting 300 homers?
You going 24 hours without tweeting?
(Davin from Da burgh) | 30%. 70%. 10%. 90%. 0%. (Mike Gianella) |
| 2015-06-22 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Agent Moore:
This mission, should you choose to accept it, involves pitching to Bryce Harper with the bases loaded, 2 outs, and with a 1-run lead. Your goal is to end the threat. Please explain how you are going to achieve this result. (Tom Cruise from Mission Impossible) | I'd probably let the message with my task explode near me and kill me before a line drive to the brain does. (Jeff Moore) |
| 2015-06-02 18:00:00 (link to chat) | How would you rank Joey Gallo, Bryce Harper and Giancarlo Stanton in terms of raw power? Does your ranking change if it is in-game power? (Frank Underwood from White House) | This is extremely fun. In terms of raw it might be Stanton Harper Gallo with Harper and Gallo fighting it out for the #2 spot. If it's in game the grade doesn't change but the gap between the players grows for all three. (Mauricio Rubio) |
| 2015-05-05 15:00:00 (link to chat) | Any worry about Bryce Harper's K #s? 34 K's so far. Obviously he's walking more as well, but are the strikeouts concerning? (grimoren189 from TX) | His strikeout percentage is also slightly higher than it was even last year. It's a little concerning for his AVG, though it's still early in the season and as you mentioned his walks are way up. (Nick Shlain) |
| 2015-04-07 14:00:00 (link to chat) | What should we expect from Michael Taylor this first month? Leading off in a decent lineup, and supposedly had decent pop and speed. Could he be a possible surprise star this year? (LucasDad from Monticello, MN) | I think that surprise start is going a bit far, but given that the only healthy member of the starting outfield is Bryce Harper, aka "plays with reckless abandon, I'd say that there's a non-zero chance that he sticks beyond a single month. The power spike that he enjoyed at AA last season is a long-shot to be replicated in the majors, but if he retains some of that improvement then he could be a surprise. But the double-jump in levels has me bracing expectation. (Doug Thorburn) |
| 2015-02-26 20:00:00 (link to chat) | Have the 4th pick in a starter dynasty draft. Would you hesitate to pick Bryce Harper there?
Also, should I draft myself? (Jeremy Hellickson from A Sad Place) | I wouldn't hesitate if you want him, but I have him ranked fifth. And absolutely not. (Bret Sayre) |
| 2015-02-04 19:00:00 (link to chat) | Who do you think are going to be the best players out of the last couple groups of prospects? Bryant, Baez, Russell, Correa, Bogaerts, Harper, etc...Do you have a personal top prospect list coming out? (Scott from Chucktown) | I'm still firmly convinced that Bryce Harper is going to be a player who wins multiple MVP's. Troutca came through at the same time, but that's obviously not an unfair answer. Not to belittle any of the other guys, because all of those names are the stars of tomorrow, but Harper possesses generational upside.
I don't think I'll be releasing a top prospect list of my own (although I do keep one updated), but I'm going to be chatting every month, and I typically discuss guys I'm higher or lower on than the consensus. Therefore, you can get a good flavor of where those guys would rank on a hypothetical list. (Jordan Gorosh) |
| 2015-01-15 18:00:00 (link to chat) | Thanks Mark. Take a stab at what you think a peak Bryce Harper season looks like. (Bob from Ohio) | Harper is so insanely talented that it is difficult to conceptualize what he could do in a peak season if everything comes together. He has enough talent, assuming health, that he could put up seasons that rank among some of the best in the history of the game. We could see a .280-.290 average, 35-40+ home runs and other gaudy numbers that are tough to come by in the current environment of the game. It's tough to determine that a player could legitimately put up numbers like that, but he has the talent to do it. (Mark Anderson) |
| 2015-02-13 19:00:00 (link to chat) | Thanks for the chat, Mike! What are your thoughts on taking Clayton Kershaw in say the Top 5? SP seems deep, and you can build a nice staff later in the draft. The other thing is, in order to keep your advantage in SP cats by taking Kershaw, don't you have to take another pitcher earlier than you'd think, which again puts you behind the curve for hitting cats? By that I mean you don't want to take Kershaw 1st rd, then not another pitcher until 10th/11th rd as that might be just as good as someone who takes pitchers in say 4th and 7th/8th rds, and you've lost the advantage Kershaw gives you, while also losing out a potentially elite hitter in the 1st rd. (Shawn from Cubicle) | I had a long discussion about this today on Twitter with Ray Guilfoyle of Fake Teams and Dan Strafford of Sirius XM. I think it's OK to do, but given the variability at the bottom of the SP pool, you have a greater likelihood of getting a Johnny Cueto or Corey Kluber type relatively late (like last year) as opposed to getting a great hitter late. If Kershaw tanks, that's 1/9th of your rotation going down in flames, versus if a Bryce Harper tanks that's 1/14th of your offense. My preference is to start taking pitchers in the 6th round or later. I'll pounce earlier on an arm I like if he falls, but generally speaking I hate taking a pitcher in the top five. I would have taken Pedro #1 during his prime without hesitation, but that's as crazy an exception to a rule as you are going to get. (Mike Gianella) |
| 2015-01-28 19:00:00 (link to chat) | Hey Mau, hopefully I'll still be alive by the time you get to this-- where does Bryce Harper rank overall as a dynasty asset? Do you think the SB numbers come back this year? Thanks man (Alex from New York, New York) | Hope you are indeed alive my man. I still think he's a top 5 dynasty asset. I don't count on the stolen bases to be there this year. He was never particularly good at stealing bases efficiently so I worry about him getting the stop sign more than any loss of athleticism.
He's still very good and very young. (Mauricio Rubio) |
| 2014-12-18 15:00:00 (link to chat) | 20 team dynasty. Both teams have had 3 straight losing seasons. Team 1 gives Giolito and Kris Bryant. Team 2 gives Bryce Harper. Which do you like better? (Justin from Bridgeport) | Ugh. That seems fair to be honest. I'd probably roll with Harper and take the now value but it depends on a bit on roster construction/timetable to competition. (Craig Goldstein) |
| 2014-12-18 15:00:00 (link to chat) | Does Bryce Harper produce MVP discussion worthy numbers this year? (rangerfans2 from Fort Worth) | Sure why not. I thought he would last year and I likely will think so every year for the foreseeable future. (Craig Goldstein) |
| 2014-12-11 18:00:00 (link to chat) | Thoughts on Yoan Moncada? Hearing he's getting Bryce Harper hype. When is he supposed to sign? This winter? Sometime after the season starts? Have you heard anything about him as a player? Thanks Mark in advance. These chats are awesome man. (Chuck from Miami) | Moncada is a tremendously talented player that is almost universally loved across the international scouting community. He should sign this winter and will need a pretty typical minor league developmental path. I'm not prepared to put him the same level as someone of Bryce Harper's ability and potential, but that could simply be a relative unfamiliarity on my part. I'm excited to see what he can do when he signs and will be looking for opportunities to see him in person next summer. (Mark Anderson) |
| 2014-10-09 15:00:00 (link to chat) | Jordan, Oh man, have we just seen a preview of what a healthy Bryce Harper is capable of doing? Please rank the Viva Las Vegas trio for most career homers, Harper, Bryant and Gallo. (Cal Guy from Cal) | I absolutely love Bryce Harper. I love watching him play, I love the way he swings the bat. He's already got a head start on both of those guys. I think Harper could be a generational talent, and the only reason he doesn't get more love, outside of 'attitude' concerns, is because some guy named Mike Trout has overshadowed him. (Jordan Gorosh) |
| 2014-08-25 13:00:00 (link to chat) | No one wants to be the guy that sells low on Bryce Harper, right? That being said, what is he worth in a dynasty league?? (Genie's Army from Everywhere) | Yep, nobody does. That being said if you can get $25-30 worth of in-his-prime talent for him you have to consider it. The dynasty factor does pump up his value though. This year is kind of the exception to the rule with Harper: even in his down years, he has been putting up earnings in the low $20s. If he's healthy, that's his floor. And he's 21 years old. I'd be really reluctant to move Harper unless somebody offered late first round/early round talent in a deeper dynasty. (Mike Gianella) |
| 2014-09-05 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Which player would you want on your team for 1) Next Year 2) Their Entire Career ? Bryce Harper, Oscar Taveras, or Kris Bryant (JasonPennini from Denver) | 1) Harper... he's done enough at the MLB level that I have the most confidence in what he'll produce next year. Injuries aside, his baseline looks like .275 with 25 homers and double-digit SB's, which is very valuable in fantasy. 2) Bryant. 43 HR's in 138 games at AA-AAA, plus 34 doubles and 86 walks. He looks like a short-list, elite slugger, and those are gold in today's offensive environment. (Cory Schwartz) |
| 2014-08-19 14:00:00 (link to chat) | The latest installment of What Scouts Are Saying had quite the statement on Bryce Harper. Have you heard anything personally about his makeup? I see a guy with great eye black who plays hard, speaks his mind, and makes his team better every time he's on the field. Hard to argue with that or say he's a "distraction." (Mr. Ambulance Driver from DC) | I haven't. And personally, Bryce Harper is one of my favorite players. (CJ Wittmann) |
| 2014-08-15 14:00:00 (link to chat) | It's ridiculous that everybody was talking about sending Bryce Harper down to Triple-A. he should be sent to Double-A, right? (Matthew V. from Washington) | I think when Harper was rehabing in Double-A he was still the youngest guy on the team, which should tell you something and that something is, no send him to Single-A! The Nationals think, and likely not without cause, that Harper is one of the three best outfielders they have in their organization. I agree with them. We've all been spoiled by Mike Trout. [shakes fist] TROUT! But players don't do what he's done. Everyone looks at young players like Harper and Bogaerts and thinks, 'what's wrong with them?' But nothing is wrong with them. Playing in the majors is really hard and players don't step into the majors and become perennial MVP candidates (heck, even Trout didn't do that). Harper has had some injury issues and I still think that is the only thing that will hold him back from an outstanding career. But, sure, send him down and play some inferior player in his place in the middle of a pennant race! (Matthew Kory) |
| 2014-08-15 14:00:00 (link to chat) | Hey Matthew, thanks for the chat! Just wanted to know which of these players would you keep (I can keep only 9 and am in re-build mode):
Mesoraco, Zunino, Trumbo, Kipnis, Rollins, Bogaerts, Addison Russell, Castellanos, Marte, Yelich, Kris Bryant, Bryce Harper and Joc Pederson (Dan from Toronto) | I'm not a fantasy guy, but it's fun! I'm just not an expert. So I'd ask Mike Gianella (@MikeGianella on the twitters) or one of our fine prospect guys here at BP.
One guy I wouldn't get rid of though (no matter what Mike says) is Bryce Harper. (Matthew Kory) |
| 2014-08-08 13:00:00 (link to chat) | I'm in a 12 team keeper league. each team gets to keep 7 players for next season. who do you think i should keep from this list: George Springer, Bryce Harper, Chris Sale, Justin Upton, Byron Buxton, Addison Russell, Taijuan Walker, Lucas Giolito, Francisco Lindor, Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausmann, Carlos Correa, Miguel Sano, Zach Wheeler. Thanks. (childgrambino from Richmond, VA) | Harper, Sale, Upton, Walker, Gausman, Wheeler and Springer. 12 team leagues, you keep guys who are contributing. Having this many prospects in this shallow a league is bananas. Drop a bunch. (Craig Goldstein) |
| 2014-08-08 13:00:00 (link to chat) | I turned down his Jonathan LuCroy and Bryce Harper for my Mike Trout. I can keep any of those guys forever. I think I might've picked with my heart instead of my head. What do you think? (JC from CoMo) | I'm not sure you ever have to justify keeping Mike Trout. Besides, haven't you heard Harper is going to minors? (Craig Goldstein) |
| 2014-07-08 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Is Bryce Harper simply going to end up like Stanton with a bit less power and a bit more speed complete with injury concerns? Not like that is a bad player or anything... (Dylan from Boston) | You mean like Stanton this year, complete with a .305/.402/.559 slash and on pace for 35+ bombs? Is that all Bryce Harper is going to end up being? That's a ridiculous player, and that's still what Bryce Harper is capable of. The guy is still just the rough equivalent of a college junior, playing his third full season in the Major Leagues. As my Grandmother used to say...."Patience is a virtue." (Mark Anderson) |
| 2014-07-09 15:00:00 (link to chat) | What do you expect from Bryce Harper the rest of the year? (JasonPennini from Denver) | The all star break is a blessing for him. He's really pressing. Watch him take pitches. He'll let it go by and then look towards the ump hoping the call goes his way even on pitches that arent close. I expect solid but not elite stats. Think 2012. Dude just has to stay healthy. (Ryan Parker) |
| 2014-06-26 14:00:00 (link to chat) | In a standard 10 team H2H dynasty league, would you deal Rizzo and Bryant for Harper? Have Belt and Hosmer too. No chance of winning this year. Been hesitant to accept the offer. (USA!!! from USA!!!) | Nope, I wouldn't. Rizzo has finally taken a step forward, and Bryant is going to be an impact guy as soon as next year. I love Bryce Harper. Love him. However, he's shown some injury concerns and trading two potential studs for a slightly-better stud doesn't quite hit the mark for me. (J.P. Breen) |
| 2014-05-29 19:30:00 (link to chat) | Is now the time to consider dealing CarGo or is it a bad time? I'm tired of watching him get a booboo on his finger or foul a ball off of his leg or something silly and miss 3 games. What if he actually has something serious happen? I know dealing him hurt is not a good idea but are you still a believer? I just can't call him elite when he can't stay in the lineup. Would you deal him for Bryce Harper while he's out? (Chris from Columbia, MO) | You're tired of an elite talent who gets hurt, and your solution is to trade for Bryce Harper? Also, last year was the first time CarGo failed to reach 500 PA since 2010. Don't let narrative sink your team. (Ben Carsley) |
| 2014-05-28 14:15:00 (link to chat) | Do you think that Bryce Harper will ever see 600 ABs in a season given his tendency to run into walls and such? (JohnnyFive from WA) | Yes. Maybe less often than we'd like, but barring catastrophe, he has many seasons ahead of him, and in some of those seasons the walls will cooperate. (Ben Lindbergh) |
| 2014-04-24 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Are you concerned with Bryce Harper? Has he been over-hyped? (bigups52 from DC) | Not really, not really. He's a great player, I just think Trout has raised the expectation bar. He's still just 21. If it were just him, we'd be marveling over his numbers at these ages, but Trout makes it look like he's "struggling" when he very much isn't (Paul Sporer) |
| 2014-04-21 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Christian Yelich sure can hit, but where's the homerun power? (Luc from Atlanta) | We're giving up on Yelich's power already? He's 22 and has 79 major league games to his credit. Please repeat after me: not every prospect is Bryce Harper.
Yes, Yelich's power hasn't kicked in yet. That also happens when your organization rushes you to the majors. He's doing a damn good job of holding his own despite getting just 49 games in the high minors. Power is usually the last tool to develop, especially on young guys who are still filling out their frame. Yelich is a bit of a string bean. He'll fill out. Plus that home park doesn't help. He won't be a big time power guy but he's got 15 a season in there somewhere. (Jeff Moore) |
| 2014-03-04 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Do you want 1/2 of Mike Trout's or Bryce Harper's estate in 2034? (Timmy from Scottsdale) | Trout, but Harper's will be plenty. (Harry Pavlidis) |
| 2014-03-14 09:00:00 (link to chat) | 11th pick in a 14-team redraft 5X5 league with OBP instead of AVG. Who are some of your preferred guys to target in the late 1st/early 2nd round? (AJ from AZ) | Hmm. Well it obviously depends on who gets taken earlier, but I like Tulo if he's still there. It's a weird spot because it's too early to start getting cute. I generally would just go with value. Bryce Harper is another obvious play there if he's not gone. I don't see anyone that low in the ADP rankings (say 20 or below) that jumps out as a "wow" move there. I do like David Wright/Freddie Freeman better than sexier guys like Jason Kipnis or Yasiel Puig, but I think all of them are probably stretches there anyway. (Mike Gianella) |
| 2014-03-14 09:00:00 (link to chat) | Made a bit of a blockbuster in a 10-team dynasty league. Traded Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth, David Robertson, Glen Perkins, Zach Greinke, plus prospects (farm roster) Joey Gallo and Eddie Butler. Got back Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez, Homer Bailey, and prospects Xander Bogaerts and Billy Hamilton. I like the trade for me as I can play Xander and Billy right away, but I have my concerns over Harper breaking out. What do you think? (Sara from Tacoma) | Hi Sara:
Wow, that is a blockbuster! In a league that size, I like that trade for you in the here and now. You got four potential impact players and a strong pitcher in Bailey for two potential impact guys in Harper and Werth with two closers and Greinke. A lot depends on what happens with Gallo and Butler, but if you're playing for this year (and flags fly forever, as we like to say around here) you did well. (Mike Gianella) |
| 2014-03-14 09:00:00 (link to chat) | Thoughts on grabbing Baez in a 12 team ML redraft league? What round would you take the gamble in? (hardball from San Diego) | In a redraft? Eh, I'd take him pretty late if I took him at all. 20th? I don't know. As I mentioned earlier, I'm not a big fan of this play in mixed. Seems like a 1-in-10 chance you wind up with this year's version of Bryce Harper in 2012 and a 9-in-10 chance you wind up with Oscar Taveras v.2013. (Mike Gianella) |
| 2014-02-13 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Is this the Bryce Harper breakout season? (Alan from Jacksonville) | This is like the Heyward question. Harper had a 133 OPS+ as a 20-year-old and we want moremoremore. I blame Mike Trout. Anyway, I think Harper will improve, just not by a huge leap because he's already so good. To put it another way: Miguel Cabrera didn't post an OPS+ better than Harper's 2013 figure until he was 22. (R.J. Anderson) |
| 2014-02-13 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Is Mike Trout or Bryce Harper better at snowboarding? (Bub from Ft. Lauderdale) | Harper's recklessness would probably cost him, so Trout. (R.J. Anderson) |
| 2014-02-13 13:00:00 (link to chat) | In 2025, do you want one-half of the estate of Mike Trout or Bryce Harper? (Robbie from San Francisco) | Harper because he seems more likely to own a pet wolf. (R.J. Anderson) |
| 2014-01-29 19:00:00 (link to chat) | Hey Ben, I'm picking third in an inaugural dynasty league draft. I'm thinking of picking Goldshmidt since I assume Trout-Cabrera will go 1-2, but I want an experts opinion (aidanh21 from LA) | We talked about this a bit in Episode 3 of TINO, but I think Goldschmidt at 3 is a fine choice. Personally I'd lean Bryce Harper, as there's legit 50-homer upside there and he's still like 12 years old, but no one would blame you for taking Goldy. McCutchen also deserves some consideration, but I think I'd have him fifth. You could also consider taking Grady Sizemore. (Ben Carsley) |
| 2014-01-29 19:00:00 (link to chat) | Welcome Ben, I'll start you off with a curveball: Let's say every draft eligible prospect from 2010 to 2014 was eligible for this year's draft. Just based on pre-draft scouting reports and without the benefit of hindsight, how would the first 10 picks of the draft unfold? (baseballjunkie from cali, where it's already Spring) | This is an amazingly difficult question to answer, and also quite fun. It's probably better suited for an article than for a fantasy chat answer, but since I was able to access this question ahead of time, here's what I came up with after about 30 min of research. I'll note that since I'm not familiar enough with 2014 prospects yet, I've restricted your search to 2010-2013 draftees. I'll go with:
1. Bryce Harper 2. Manny Machado 3. Gerrit Cole 4. Dylan Bundy 5. Anthony Rendon 6. Jameson Taillon 7. Bubba Starling 8. Byron Buxton 9. Carlos Correa 10. Archie Bradley Toughest omissions for me were Francisco Lindor, Trevor Bauer, Kevin Gausman, Kris Bryant and Mark Appel. If Luc Giolito had been healthy for his senior year, he'd probably have made it on this list. Obviously that's not how we'd rank them now, and it's funny that guys like Chris Sale, Jose Fernandez, Matt Harvey and Javier Baez are left in the dust. Bubba Starling sticks out like a sore thumb, and Buxton was underrated. This exercise also reinforces how loaded the 2011 draft was. Last year's pales in comparison. (Ben Carsley) |
| 2014-01-29 19:00:00 (link to chat) | Predictions for the healthy, big as a house Bryce Harper in 2014? (Nat Man from DC) | I don't think he has his "omg" year yet, but I think he gets closer. Let's go .280/.370/.510 with 27 bombs and 15 steals. That, by the way, is a monster. (Ben Carsley) |
| 2014-01-29 19:00:00 (link to chat) | I traded Bryce Harper for Robinson Cano and Justin Upton in a dynasty league. I had a need at 2B, so this deal was a slam dunk right? Or at least until Harper hits 50 bombs (CharlieWerner from Manayunk PA) | Probably a slam drunk for the next two or three years and the cause of much internal turmoil on your part from 2017 on. But that's fine. (Ben Carsley) |
| 2014-01-23 12:00:00 (link to chat) | Imagine that there was something out there that was as effective at improving player performance as people *think* steroids are. Something like, if you listen to Lose Yourself just before a game, you become Barry Bonds in 2001. If you don't, you're just a regular old player. And this thing was 100 percent effective; it's an outside aid that makes players way better than they really are. Middle infielders hitting 45 homers again, Bryce Harper hitting 82 homers, records all fall, historical numbers all get skewed. And it's totally harmless. In other words, it's steroids but without the health effects or the legal issues. Would MLB outlaw it? (Sam from Bay Area) | The problem with steroids so we've been told is that they're unhealthy. They shrink your balls and kill children and make you AAAAAAANGRY SMASH SMASH and all bad things. That's the justification for outlawing them, not the effect they have on the game (assuming there is an effect, which I think there is, though not a super huge one). So MLB would have to some sort of after-the-fact justification to outlaw this new harmless substance/song. I think they would is the answer I am giving, but it would be fun to watch them jump through and set on fire all the logical hoops they'd have to to do it. (Matthew Kory) |
| 2014-01-21 18:00:00 (link to chat) | If you had to draft one players contract (other than Mike Trout) in fantasy (i'm in a real life salary w/salary cap who would it be if you had FIP, K%, Shutdowns, IP and HR, wOBA, Net SB, and PA? (Steve from Manitoba) | I think I'd still go with Bryce Harper. He's younger than Trout and despite being "disappointing" relative to Trout has put up some amazing numbers for a player his age. Harper is the non-Trout guy to build around right now. (Mike Gianella) |
| 2013-11-12 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Hi Sam
Thanks for the chat always enjoy your truth and a Analysis. Real quick if u were starting a fantasy baseball team who would be top 5-10 guys u would build around?? (Mike from Ri) | 1. Mike Trout
2. Bryce Harper 3. Andrew McCutchen 4. Miguel Cabrera 5. Robinson Cano But those are boring answers. If you want to know which players I might target at some point in a draft or auction, I seem to like Harper, Choo, Yan Gomes, Nelson Cruz, and Kyle Seager a bit more than the average person. This chat is off to a slow start! (Sam Miller) |
| 2013-10-23 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Fantasy Keeper League, you can only keep 3 of the following players. Who do you keep? Bryce Harper, Yasiel Puig, Hanley Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Fernandez, Felix Hernandez and Adam Wainwright (Jason from Philly) | I'd lean Hanley, Harper, and Felix. Although you can probably make a case for Fernandez. (R.J. Anderson) |
| 2013-09-10 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Do you think OT makes the Cards team out of spring training and what kind of performance do you expect from him in 2014? (Cal Guy from Cali) | OT = Oscar Tavares. I do think he'll make the team out of spring training, but how will he perform? I think we're all spoiled by Mike Trout and Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. I know I am. But most guys aren't in the big leagues at 20 or 21 let alone performing like an All Star, so I'll clamp down expectations a bit and say he holds his spot, but he'll need a season or two to really get going. (Matthew Kory) |
| 2013-05-15 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Who's putting together the prettiest graphs so far? (Tyler Drenon from The Doubleday) | I loved the hex heat maps the Washington Post did for the PITCHf/x parts of the Bryce Harper feature. I've seen some new stuff recently, but being a doofus I can't think of where. On that note, Dan Brooks and I hope to improve the stuff on the BrooksBaseball.net site in the near future. We're doing some back-end stuff to make that possible. (Harry Pavlidis) |
| 2013-04-30 12:00:00 (link to chat) | What do you think of a Felix hernandez/wil myers/Oscar taveras for Bryce Harper trade? (adrian from washington dc) | That's a lot of talent changing hands. It depends on your team but while the best player is Harper (especially in a keeper league) it's not like you can really lose either way. (R.J. Anderson) |
| 2013-04-10 20:00:00 (link to chat) | What is Pujols' value in a keeper league? Is he still a top 10 value for the next 3 years or should I be concerned about the Anahiem park factors and declining numbers and looks to move him for younger players? (TheCoupons from FL) | There are two conflicting factors when it comes to a player like Albert Pujols. The first is that he is going to decline as he gets older, and the decline has already started. The other side of the coin is that elite players like Pujols are at such a high level to begin with that their declines still can lead to some pretty strong numbers even if they're not elite. My guess is that Pujols can earn in the Top 10 but Top 20-25 might be a safer bet for his Age 33-35 seasons. If you can move Pujols for a Giancarlo Stanton or a Bryce Harper do it, but in recent years more fantasy players gravitate toward the younger stars and this is obviously easier said than done. (Mike Gianella) |
| 2013-04-10 20:00:00 (link to chat) | I have Miguel Cabrera. What would constitute a good value trade if I was to offload him? Or would I be a complete idiot for doing so... (gavstone from UK) | One-for-one or multiplayer? One-for-one you don't want to move Cabrera unless it's a dynasty league and you can get a Bryce Harper or Mike Trout in return. In a multiplayer deal, a lot depends on where your holes are and how deep your free agent pool is. In an AL-only, I could see taking back 2-3 players if you're filling dead spots and saddling your opponent with those dead spots. In a mixed league, it's difficult to trade Cabrera since the replacement level talent in the free agent pool is going to be close to the players you get back. (Mike Gianella) |
| 2013-04-01 12:45:00 (link to chat) | How many home runs will Bryce Harper hit this year?? (Jason Pennini from Denver) | At least 324, we KNOW that. (Joking aside, 30-33ish, IMO) -Paul Sporer (Baseball Prospectus Staff) |
| 2013-04-04 11:00:00 (link to chat) | Who are your favorite MLB players? (Brian from Boston) | My favorite player is Derek Jeter. He's number one for me. After Jeter, I love watching Elvis, Brandon Phillips, Miguel Cabrera swing a bat, Drew Stubbs in the outfield, Bryce Harper doing anything. I could probably list a bunch. (Jason Parks) |
| 2013-03-20 11:00:00 (link to chat) | Thoughts on Bryce Harper for this year? How high up would you draft him? Thanks (ganz1080 from CT) | I took him 16th overall in a mock draft earlier this winter, and while I probably won't be that ambitious in a "real" draft, I do think he can be a top-20 player. More realistically let's say he hits .280 with 25 HR, 85 RBI and 20 SB... very similar to Jayson Heyward or Yoenis Cespedes. (Cory Schwartz) |
| 2013-03-28 13:00:00 (link to chat) | I try to understand the PECOTA approach since a few weeks now and with all my drafts in the books I wondered when I compare the PECOTA list with the draft tools offered on the web how potential new-comers (prospects) always fall short on the PECOTA list. Anybody who can help me to understand this better? Any comment would be appreciated.
regards Udo (bechtudo from Knoxville, TN) | I reached out to a colleague at BP for an answer here (as it's a bit left of my comfort zone). Here's what he said:
"In general, I think a lot of this is due to overly high expectations from rookie players by most, and the fact that a good projection is going to take into account a statistical expectation, not a "best case" (or even "above average") scenario. It's easy to remember the Amazing Mike Trout season, and Bryce Harper's very good season. But entering 2012, I thought catchers Mesoraco and Lavarnway would do quite well. Many thought guys like Yonder Alonso, Chris Parmelee, and (especially) Jesus Montero would do well. And even guys like Nieuwenhuis, Pastornicky, and Lombardozzi had reasonably adequate expectations from many. The really deceptive aspect of projecting rookies is that if they aren't good, they often get demoted, so their struggles aren't showcased, while the ones who do well get to keep playing and everyone notices, so there's a perception bias with regards to how well rookies actually did." Hope that helps! (Nick Faleris) |
| 2013-03-28 13:00:00 (link to chat) | HS Soph Chris Andritsos looks like a monster prospect- what do you know about him and are we looking at the beginnings of Bryce Harper II? (Nick from The Woodlands) | Very good prospect; not Bryce Harper. (Nick Faleris) |
| 2013-03-19 13:00:00 (link to chat) | What do you think are the most interesting story lines heading into the season? (Frahm from The Hills) | Mike Trout is always an amazing storyline. PECOTA has him taking a sizable step back yet still being (I think) the fifth best player in baseball by WARP. That's how nuts he was last season. Can he do it, or realistically, some large portion of it, again? I can't wait to find out.
The other one is obvious too, but I think Bryce Harper is going to get serious MVP consideration this season. Can Justin Verlander do it again? Are the Yankees finally done? Can the Dodgers add more talent (and payroll) at the deadline? Can the Dodgers win or are they some bloated mess? (I'm rooting for both.) Will the Astros lose 110? 120? 206? (Matthew Kory) |
| 2013-03-12 13:00:00 (link to chat) | J. Upton, Bryce Harper, or Jason Heyward for 2013?
They are all risky guys with huge upside. (Gila Monster from Massachusetts) | I don't think Upton is all that risky. His 2012 was considered a "bad" year, if that's your downside, sign me up ALL day! He didn't meet expectations obviously, but he still played 150 games and produced. For the record, I like all three OFs. (Paul Sporer) |
| 2013-02-27 20:00:00 (link to chat) | My current keepers are Pujols, Granderson, Wright, Teixeria, Hamilton and Machado in a 12 team H2H 6 man keeper league. Should I be looking to get younger, perhaps targeting a Bryce Harper or Giancarlo Stanton? Or am I safe playing with these players on the wrong side of 30? (TheCoupons from FL) | Cory Schwartz of MLB Network coined a saying I emphatically agree with: "Flags Fly Forever". Your goal - first and foremost - is to win. Obviously, if you can get a Harper or a Stanton via trade, I like them better than anyone you have an your squad...with the possible exception of Pujols depending on your format. However, that's a pretty strong core that you have in a six-man keeper. Play to win now. (Mike Gianella) |
| 2013-02-27 20:00:00 (link to chat) | Who ends up having the better career, Machado or Bogaerts? Bundy or Cole? Taveras or anyone on this year's BP 101? (cal guy from cal) | Bogaerts, Cole, and Taveras for me, though with the first two it's close and there are a lot of different trajectories. Taveras is starting to look like someone really special. I don't think he's going to be quite as good as Bryce Harper, but a number of scouting experts are starting to put them in the same paragraph, which is saying something. (Mike Gianella) |
| 2013-02-12 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Early AL/NL ROY, Cy Young, MVP and any darkhorses you think are really going to break out this year? (Greg36 from Tacoma) | Is it darkhorse enough to say Max Scherzer could make a run at the AL Cy this year? He K/9'd 11.1 last season as a starter! That's crazy good. For the AL MVP I'll throw my inconsiderable weight behind Mike Trout. That's a pretty thick limb to step out on right there, but hey, he's the best player in the AL so it's one I don't mind standing on for a while. I'm thinking Bryce Harper is going to explode (in a good baseball-y way) this season. He's so talented I wonder if when he cuts himself shaving that talent drips down the drain. If so he probably doesn't care. More where that came from. That doesn't entirely answer your question but I must get more coffee so that's how that goes. (Matthew Kory) |
| 2013-02-08 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Dude, do you think the Nats will be better or worse than last year? We might get a full season of Strasburg, Denard Span is a nice addition, and Bryce Harper could get even better, which is sooo metal. But then again I feel like the whole infield could regress, as could Gio. What do you think? (RTG from Grey Cubicle, DC) | I was as shocked as anyone by Gio's performance last year. I predicted regression, and dude just absolutely dismantled the NL. So hell, you got me when it comes to Gio.
Harper will continue to get better for a LONG time, which is almost scary. 200+ innings from Strasburg, plus you've got Matt Purke lurking back there too... plus there aren't many holes in the lineup. I like them a LOT and wouldn't be surprised to see them not just win the NL East but go deep into the playoffs. (Ian Miller) |
| 2013-01-07 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Super-Deep Dynasty league with auction draft... $500 budgets for 25 roster spots. If there's one player you want to build you team around (maybe 3-4 players if you're feeling generous!), who are they/is he? (Steve from Dallas) | If starting from scratch, I'd absolutely love to build around Mike Trout or Bryce Harper, so will everyone else though. I'd probably try to nab a pair of high upside prospects/youngsters who have yet to breakout in the bigs such as Jurickson Profar, Manny Machado, or Gerrit Cole. Buying in on a young player coming off a disappointing year such as Eric Hosmer would also make a lot of sense. (Josh Shepardson) |
| 2012-11-08 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Since someone brought the MASN thing up, how much longer will we have to wait until we see a deal?
Part 2 - this is taking way too long to resolve, is this just a little bit of business as usual, or are the Orioles/Angelos really being divisive on this issue? (comish4lif from Alexandria, VA) | No, this one is a tough, tough deal. The Nationals have the right to do what's called a "reset" on their end of the MASN deal every five years. Word is, the Nats are seeking $100 million, mostly because of their ability to be competitive in the standings this year, and therefore, increased interest. The problem is, the Orioles also get a "reset". See my article from June. Here's a snippet:
Currently, the Nats pull in $29 million in the D.C. market that is eighth in terms of Designated Market Area (2,360,180 television homes) and are looking for a sizeable bump in rights fees as part of a clause in their agreement that allows for what is called a "reset." In that arrangement, the Nationals can opt to get a bump in the fee in the middle of the broadcast agreement, and it's here that things get messy. The Nationals point to the deals that the Rangers, Angels, and Padres are getting; the increased ratings bump this year due to better play on the field; Stephen Strasburg's return; and the excitement around the Bryce Harper call-up. Put it all together, and the Nationals would like to see $100 million annually, or a $71 million annual bump for the next five years. The problem is that these "resets" are tied to the Orioles as a partner in the MASN framework. In other words, if the Nationals get a reset, so do the Orioles, and you can do the math: if the Nats get $100 million, the Orioles will want the same, and now MASN has to kick out $200 million annually. On the other side of the coin, MASN isn't really seeing things the same way as the Nationals. Fine, the Nationals want a bump, but the increase should be more like $35 million based on how ratings have been in the past and their low attendance. As of Saturday, the Nationals were averaging 29,482 per game, ranking 15th out of the 30 clubs in terms of attendance. The Nats pulled in a 24,877 for the 2011 season, 22,568 in 2010, and 22,715 for 2009 by average attendance. (Maury Brown) |
| 2012-10-23 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Bryce Harper's incredible first year wasn't given that much attention. Do you see .280, 30+hrs, .365 OBP, and 25 SB for him next year? (rangerfans2 from Fort Worth, TX) | I don't think he hits 30+ bombs yet, but it will happen soon. Maybe it happens. I don't know. I think he's an easy 20-20 type, but like any player, he will need to make the next adjustment after pitchers adjust to him. (Jason Parks) |
| 2012-09-20 13:00:00 (link to chat) | In your notes you frequently use the term "near elite" I understand that is there due to the obvious rarity of truly elite tools/pitches. What are some of the tools/pitches you've seen that you'd call truly elite? (Klochner from MN) | Bill Hamilton's speed; Mike Trout's hit tool/speed tool/baseball tool; Neftali Feliz's fastball; everything Justin Verlander does; everything Miguel Cabrera does with the bat; Profar's instincts; Bryce Harper's raw power, etc. (Jason Parks) |
| 2012-09-20 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Would you rather be hit with a baseball bat by Bryce Harper or Oscar Tavares? And why? (Mark from Boston) | Taveras. I think he has a tender side. Harper would beat my arms off, boil my bones, and design a faux energy necklace out of my remains. (Jason Parks) |
| 2012-08-23 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Bryce Harper is hitting .186 since the AS break. I can't help but have a little Trout-envy every time I see Harper flail at an off-speed pitch out of the zone. Does he need more time in AAA or is it best to just let him work it out during a pennant race? (TimV from DC) | Harper's swing issues need to be worked out by facing major league pitching. Trout is ruining prospect development for the entire world. It's normal for teenagers to struggle against quality major league pitching, especially when the book on their swing has been written and passed around to other teams. He's going to be fine. (Jason Parks) |
| 2012-08-30 13:30:00 (link to chat) | is Bryce Harper a lock for NL ROY? Will Wilin Rosario get a serious look? His home-road splits show no Coors advantage. (gerrybraun from sandiego) | I don't think Harper is a lock. Until his two-homer game, Harper had been hitting poorly for some time. If he has a month-long hot streak, the award will probably be his to lose, but if he limps to the finish line, it won't be. As of today, the NL's most valuable position player has been Todd Frazier, who I wrote about in an article that went up on the site during this chat. (That's some impressive multi-tasking.) If Frazier keeps hitting, and more importantly, keeps playing after Votto's return, I think he'd have my vote. Rosario will get some consideration, but I don't think he'll win it. The power is impressive (as Jason Wojciechowski--yeah, I spelled that without looking it up--pointed out today, offense is up all over at catcher), but a sub-.300 OBP at Coors might, and probably should, hold him back a bit. (Ben Lindbergh) |
| 2012-08-14 14:00:00 (link to chat) | Machado, Machado, Machado... We know this probably will not keep up for the rest of the year. Were do you see his numbers ending up? (Booker T from dancing) | It's always good, I find, to start a chat off by saying, in effect, I can't answer that. But that's the big mystery, right? Let's start at the beginning. He's hitting .375/.375/1.125 with three homers in four games. We know that won't last. We also know he's 19 years old and that baseball at the major league level is 99.99999% of the time too hard for 19 year olds. The only other 19 year old in baseball this year is Bryce Harper. After starting off well he's hit .183/.273/.261 since the All Star break. So if I had to guess, and it sounds like I do, I'd peg Machado for something in that neighborhood. Major League Baseball is really really hard. (Matthew Kory) |
| 2012-08-14 14:00:00 (link to chat) | Someone is going to have to ask it: what do you think about The Rangers calling up Jurickson Profar? (captnamerca from Dunedin, FL) | I think my favorite part about this season has been seeing Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and now Manny Machado. In the Lineup Card that is coming out today or tomorrow I advocated (semi-seriously) for the Red Sox to bring up Xander Bogaerts. So I'd love to see Profar up. Why not? Is he worse than Michael Young?
As to how he'll do, I have no idea, but everything I've read on him says he's a shockingly good talent. I can't wait. So yeah, I'm all for it. (Matthew Kory) |
| 2012-06-21 13:00:00 (link to chat) | When it's all set and done what do you think people will say of the careers of Mike Trout and Bryce Harper? (Mike from Utica, NY) | That they were special talents that gave baseball a spark when it needed it. (Jason Parks) |
| 2012-05-21 14:00:00 (link to chat) | Mike trout has hit the ground running, Matt Moore has been inconsistent yet solid overall, and Bryce Harper has been treading water. What can we expect from the Big 3 for the rest of the season: Regression? Improvement? More of the same? (Michael from Dover AF Base) | Trout: Keep it going; Moore: Slow but steady improvement; Harper: Ups and downs all year, but no breakout in 2012. (Kevin Goldstein) |
| 2012-05-31 14:00:00 (link to chat) | If you owned Bryce Harper in a keeper league, would you ever deal him? (Anthony from Long Island) | Not for a million dollars. (Jason Wojciechowski) |
| 2012-05-15 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Standard 5x5 scoring, 8-team, NL-only keeper league. $260 annual auction budget, 8 keepers per team. I'm currently in 1st place on the strength of my offense. My Bryce Harper (likely to be kept at $16 next year, $20 in 2014, & $28 in 2015) for Kershaw (who cannot be kept after this season). I have Braun, CarGo, and Stanton as other OF. Do I make the deal? (Kingpin from Grinnell, IA) | Yes, go for the title, as long as an impact SP will help the team. You're in 1st, don't sweat keepers for next year. (Paul Sporer) |
| 2012-05-07 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Does a big year from B.J. Upton in any way change the Rays plans for 2013 and beyond? He's not quite the Carl Crawford type, expected to pull in a huge deal, and the team that wanted him in center the most the last few seasons now has Bryce Harper in tow. (Marc from The Internet) | If anything, a big year decreases his likelihood of returning. The Rays have tried extending Upton multiple times, dating back to his days in the minors. If it was going to happen, it would've happened by now. If Upton does have a big year, I could see a team falling in love with him as the M's did with Adrian Beltre back in the day. People have been predicting a breakout season for Upton long enough that it might only take one big year to convince someone he's made the leap.
As for the Rays outfield situation, I'd still anticipate Brandon Guyer being the benefactor. That could and likely will change between now and next opening day, but that's just how the depth chart is set up right now. There are some around the league who think Guyer could become an everyday player. (R.J. Anderson) |
| 2012-04-23 14:00:00 (link to chat) | I love the Daily Hit List, at least now that the Nats are near the top. If they don't start hitting, though, I don't see that as sustainable. It appears that the Nats are trying to get Tyler Moore to play LF so he can provide some of the needed pop. Assuming that some of that translates as it has every time he has moved up, would it make sense to have him learn LF in the bigs so that we no longer have to see Xavier Nady or even Roger Bernadina? (HalfStreet from Fairfax VA) | Thanks! The Hit List is fun to write, so I'm glad you're enjoying it. I understand we are endeavoring to add comments soon so that should make it even more interactive.
I agree the Nats will need some more offense if they want to make the next level, proverbially speaking. My guess though is that any additional offensive boost will come in trade. Unless you think Bryce Harper can play in the majors now. I'm dubious of that, but I'd bow to Kevin Goldstein if he has a different answer. (Matthew Kory) |
| 2012-04-27 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Hey Professor P, thanks for throwing the quick chat...what are things you looking forward to see before All-Star break, albeit harassed by tweets asking about prospect ETA everyday? (Not Billy Beane from Fantasyland) | I want to see more of the 2011 draft arms, like Bradley, Bundy, Fernandez. I want to see how Bryce Harper responds to struggle. It might be the best thing for him (longterm). The best players respond to struggle and adjust. Does Harper have this characteristic? I can't wait to find out. (Jason Parks) |
| 2012-05-01 13:00:00 (link to chat) | What's your take on Harper's promotion? I read a couple of columns saying Washington is rushing him, and even though he's 19 I didn't expect that reaction. (Alex from Anaheim) | The Nats' development staff know a lot more than you or I or the media do about what motivates Bryce Harper and how he's likely to respond. If they felt this would retard his development, they wouldn't have done it. I like what KG usually says about this, i.e., promotions tend to occur due to reasons that are beyond both the player's and team's control, mainly injury. The Nats didn't choose the time; the time chose them. But obviously they think he (a) makes the team better right now; and (b) won't lose any sleep or get down on himself if he struggles. I'd be very surprised if they're wrong about that. (Ken Funck) |
| 2012-05-01 13:00:00 (link to chat) | As long as Bryce competes, doesn't look completely overmatched - I see no reason for him not to remain with the Nats - agree/disagree? And how does a crowd boo a 19-yr old player making his debut? Let him give you a reason. Or is it because he hustles? (Mike from Chi-town) | Agree.
I'm not going to try and channel the thought process of chuckleheads who boo teenagers on the most exciting day of their (and their family's) lives. It makes me nauseous, and I fear the possibility of residual effects. My only comment is that we live an a fantastical time where information and opinions about anything in the world can be found for free. The downside of this is people know and have opinions about more things than ever before, including teenage baseball players. Thirty years ago the casual fan wouldn't have known enough about Bryce Harper to even think about booing him. I guess that's the price we have to pay -- that, and political talk radio. (Ken Funck) |
| 2012-04-12 14:00:00 (link to chat) | Hey Derek, thanks for the chat. Many people know I am better performer in the second half of season career-wise. Would you mind name more players you consider worth monitoring or even prospects who could have a big showing? (Adam Laroche from National Capital) | Sorry, Adam, but I don't buy the whole first-half/second-half thing for most players. As far as prospects that could be recalled and make an impact go, there are a lot of guys that could fit the bill. To name a few: Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Trevor Bauer, Joe Benson, Joe Wieland, Robbie Erlin, Leonys Martin, Tyler Skaggs, Jacob Turner, Brad Peacock, Jarrod Parker, Nolan Arenado, Danny Hultzen, and Brett Jackson. (Derek Carty) |
| 2012-04-13 13:00:00 (link to chat) | With Mike Morse on the shelf for 6-8 weeks, should the Nats consider accelerating Bryce Harper's timetable? (BD from DC) | I don't think they should push him forward too much. He's got a lot to learn about playing center field, and still has adjustments to make to upper-level pitching; let's not forget he hit just .256/.329/.395 after being promoted to Double-A last year, and he's just 6-for-27 with two walks at Triple-A thus far. When he starts mashing down there, it's worth revisiting the situation, but until then, I'd keep him down. It's not like the Nats are struggling yet. (Jay Jaffe) |
| 2012-04-04 13:00:00 (link to chat) | I'm currently unemployed and living at home until June. The silver lining is Bryce Harper being sent to AAA-Syracuse. What should I look for when I watch him, and are there any other guys I should be watching closely? (Dave from Syracuse) | Triple-A will present a challenge to Harper because those arms have experience and can manipulate a baseball. He needs to face a lot of breaking stuff in order to prepare for the highest level. It will be good to fail a little, and then recover and take the next step forward. When watching Harper at that level, watch how he adjusts to the off-speed stuff. Can he shorten his swing with two strikes? Can he keep his hands back when fooled? Can he fight off quality until he works himself into a mistake? He won't be in Triple-A for very long. (Jason Parks) |
| 2012-04-04 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Is unrealistic to suggest that Bryce Harper is the best prospect, in terms of ceiling only, in the history of baseball? (Josh from Toronto) | Its very realistic to suggest that. (Jason Parks) |
| 2012-04-04 13:00:00 (link to chat) | independent of results, best prospect you've ever seen? (kramer from anytown) | Clayton Kershaw in the minors was pretty stupid good. On the offensive side, I'd have to say Bryce Harper. I'd like to say someone unique, but he has two 80 tools as a teenager and he can bring them into games. It's not normal in any way. He's the best. (Jason Parks) |
| 2012-02-14 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Will Bryce Harper be my valentine?: How many ABs does the wunderkind get this season in the MLB? What does he do with those ABs (proj.)? (Francois from Toronto) | Harper is obviously a phenominal talent, but I'm not convinced he's major league ready yet. He hasn't played at Triple-A and put up sub-par numbers at Double-A. The Nats keep saying they want him to break camp with the team, but I'll believe it when I see it. And if he does, I'm keeping my expectations in check. I can't imagine I'm outbidding anyone for his services this year. (Derek Carty) |
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