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Chat: Bryan Grosnick

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Thursday July 26, 2018 12:00 PM ET chat session with Bryan Grosnick.


Bryan is an author of Baseball Prospectus, and our lead Transaction Analysis writer.

Bryan Grosnick: Hey there, folks. Hope you've got plenty of trade deadline questions for me today!

peterd (Pennsylvania ): What do you think on Jeff McNeil? Also, who do you see as the next Juan Soto?

Bryan Grosnick: I like McNeil as something like a fifth infielder in the majors ... he still projects as something of a platoon guy, but he can at least stand at most of the important infield positions, and we shouldn't completely write off his MiLB numbers. He's displayed enough pop and hit in Double-A and Triple-A that we have to look at him in the bigs and try and see if he's a guy who plays up (or down) to his level.

Dusty (Colorado): Can you give me a quick outlook on Twins superstar prospect Wander Javier, his timeline, upside, and profile?

Bryan Grosnick: Absolutely not.

(I'll refer you back to Scooter Hotz's comment from two days ago: the TL;DR is that his injury will keep him out until next year, and he's wildly talented and wildly untested. Wait and see.)

Dusty (Colorado): What's the Twins trade market for Wander Javier? Certainly they wouldn't dare trade him, right?

Bryan Grosnick: Given that he's injured and very untested, I'd be extremely surprised that they'd want to deal him now. However, I think that if Minnesota finds themselves in a situation where they could land a high-end starting pitcher or a solid bat, they should certainly be open to a move.

Dan (Hawaii): How good is Bobby Witt Jr? player comp?

Bryan Grosnick: I am certainly not an amateur scout, but Witt has the bloodline and the raw talent to be an early first rounder next year. That having been said, the correct answers are "we don't know yet" and "probably not Bobby Witt Sr."

Luke (NY): Don't mean to be the irrational, hypothetical trade guy but I think this could make sense: Mets get: Anjudar, Sheffield, Florial, Abreu/Perez/Medina/Losaiga Yankees get: Degrom, Frazier/Flores/Cabrera What do you think?

Bryan Grosnick: Looking at this from a Mets perspective, I think that this is a combination of talent and breadth, with three high-end prospects, that could make a deal work. Would I make that deal if I were the Mets? Probably not ... but maybe I'm too close to deGrom after years of watching him. From a Yankees perspective, it's a no-brainer, which makes me worried that it may not be enough of a return. But you're closer than most, I think.

kane (NY): Hey Bryan! I'm holding on to 2nd place in my 8-team H2H league, but my team has taken a beating with Strasburg, Thor, Yu and Snell, Correa, and Doolittle on the 10-day DL. In terms of pitchers, I like Snell as a keeper for next year and Yu probably has no value. Should I look into trading Stras or Thor? I've lost 3 of 4 with these recent injuries and need to start getting some wins.

Bryan Grosnick: That's a super strong pitching group, but I guess that's par for the course with an eight-teamer. If Strasburg or Thor are potential keepers for next year (I don't know your league), then I hang onto them ... they're awfully good. If you really need to bring back offense, and you could get a similar caliber player, then sure. Otherwise, hang on.

Ferns (PA): Why do I get irrationally angry at EVERY move the Phillies make or don't make?

Bryan Grosnick: Are you a fan of the Phillies? Because if so, then that answers your question. We tend to get agitated about our favorite teams. Then there's the not-so-recent history of the team making some questionable moves in the Amaro era. But I'd guess that you're feeling impatient as this team is finally showing signs of life, and you'd like to see them shoot up the standings. Take eep breaths, and cross your fingers for Machado this offseason.

Mike (NY): Should the Mets explore trading Lugo or Gsellman at this point? Given the returns being thrown around for controllable relievers, have to think they could each net a top 100 guy, no?

Bryan Grosnick: They might be able to net a top-100 guy, but that would assume that the Mets' front office values a top-100 prospect more than they do a cost-controlled reliever. Given the team's weird focus on salary, keeping around tenured players, and the fact that each guy *probably* isn't as good as a pure reliever as the Adam Cimbers and Brad Hands of the world ... I'd bet their asking price is too high and won't find a deal.

Steve (London): Which prospects in the latest BP top 50 could you see getting moved at the deadline?

Bryan Grosnick: This is a fun one! So many of the Top 50 guys are on teams that are out of contention, or are so good that they're unlikely to be moved period. I feel like Keston Hiura is the big one, if the Brewers can find a starting pitcher at the deGrom level, but that seems a bit unlikely for me. I guess I'll go with Yordan Alvarez, especially if the Astros think they might upgrade at 1B over the winter.

Dan (Beach Bum): Transactions are overrated. Prove me wrong.

Bryan Grosnick: It gives teams who are out of contention even more chance to be hopeful for the future. For fans of teams who've been awful this season (see the Padres and Francisco Mejia), that can be something truly nice amidst a sea of Travis Jankowski appearances.

Austin (Texas): Which current closers do you think will get dealt? Which will close for their new team?

Bryan Grosnick: Joakim Soria seems to be a guy who could easily get dealt, and will absolutely not close for his new team. Kirby Yates is a guy who's a little less likely to get dealt, but could close for a new team ... but only under certain situations. I'm not sure any other current closer gets moved.

Greg (Florida ): Give me a name in the National League 17 or 18-year-old who will become the next 19-20 year old to make a huge splash like Soto has for Nationals?

Bryan Grosnick: [file not found]

Squids (Pacific Northwest): I traded away Gary Sanchez for Alex Kiriloff in a Dynasty League. Was that a good move.... I mean transaction?

Bryan Grosnick: No. Just ... no.

Jordan (South Dakota): I stopped caring about fantasy baseball so I just traded away Bryce Harper to my friend for a bunch of whatever prospects and Jake Lamb. I think that was a steal for one of us.

Bryan Grosnick: Are you the same dude?

Elton (Washington State): How do you feel about tanking in a dynasty league setting?

Bryan Grosnick: Don't love it, and you should probably ask those other two folks whose questions I just posted.

Paul Sporer (Austin): What's the deal with the Wander Javier questions? This guy must be good.

Bryan Grosnick: Hey Paul! Here's the thing: nobody knows. But Dusty is super here for him!

Roger (New York): Is Tony Kemp a player you could see the Astros moving? Would he become a full time player? Would he succeed?

Bryan Grosnick: Absolutely I do, and I'm not sure he'd be a full-timer on most teams. I wasn't super high on him when I wrote him up for this year's Baseball Prospectus Annual, but I love how he's reaching base this season. He could be a fun fit for the Royals if Whit Merrifield moves on, and could definitely start for the Marlins. Regardless, I enjoy watching him play because of his combo of skills.

Bailey (MD): I dropped Ronny Mauricio this year and one of the smartest owners in the league picked him up. On a scale of 1-10, how much will I regret this in 2023?

Bryan Grosnick: 1. You will forget about this because there are many, many, many more things you'll have the opportunity to regret in five years. Also, it's hardly a sure thing that Mauricio will pan out. Don't worry!

Rob Mains (The Track): Boy, do I love triathlons! Do you love triathlons?

Bryan Grosnick: Rob, who is one of my favorite writers here at BP, is taunting me, I think. I'm currently training for my third Ironman 70.3 race, and I am constantly hungry and tired. So to answer the question ... yes, I do. (But the bike will destroy me.)

Ronny Mauricio (Mets): I will pan out.

Bryan Grosnick: <_<


Greg (Florida ): Do you see Verdugo starting the season as a starter for the Dodgers next year? Will he developed power down the line?

Bryan Grosnick: I can see it! Unfortunately, I think he's getting Clint Frazier-ed in L.A., where there's just too much talent ahead of him to get regular PT despite being ready for it. The Dodgers already have Bellinger, Taylor, Kemp, and Puig ready to roll, so I think there's actually a more likely chance that he starts the season as a starter for a different team.

As for power development, well, sure! Especially if he stays with the Dodgers ... they've got a knack for unlocking that. I wouldn't bet on him becoming a 25-homer player, but I'd give it 10-20 percent odds.

Gaut (Nurse's Office): Thank you for participating in this chat.

Bryan Grosnick: Thank you all for participating! These are fun!

duhbear (VT): A trade of Archer and Ramos for Robles, Garcia, and Fedde makes a lot of sense. Right?

Bryan Grosnick: This is an interesting one. I do not think the Rays would trade Archer unless they could bring back a Robles-caliber talent in return ... he's just too valuable, and the Rays are all about value. But I think they might want a second piece that's better than Garcia or Fedde to make the deal, given how inexpensive Archer is. I'd expect them to demand Kieboom as well.

Greg (NY ): Will we ever see Dominic Smith again? I heard they’re trying to convert him to an outfielder. Any chance there’s success?

Bryan Grosnick: Yeah. He'll be the starting first baseman for the Rays in 2020. But no, I think any conversion to the outfield is doomed to fail, if not as spectacularly as the Lucas Duda / Todd Hundley / Daniel Murphy experiments.

Greg (Florida ): Does peter Allonzo have a chance to beat the Mets starting first baseman next year? And what happened to Dominic Smith?

Bryan Grosnick: I do think Alonso has a chance to *be* the Mets starting first baseman next year ... but not until May or June. I think that the Mets will try hard to let either Frazier, Bruce, or even Conforto get first crack at the position, because they're all under contract. It'll take another year of battering the ball for the front office to give Alonso a fair shake.

For the second part, see above.

Jerry Seinfeld (New York): What's the deal with Peter Alonso? He seems to hit a lot of home runs, but the Mets wont call him up?

Bryan Grosnick: I laughed at this. As my colleagues Jarrett and Jeff have said many times on For All You Kids Out There, the Mets are extremely wasteful with major-league playing time, throwing it away on guys like Jose Reyes and Adrian Gonzalez and others. Alonso needs a chance to either succeed or fail at the MLB level, now that he's proven that he's well above the minor leagues.

Michael M (Florida): Would Hiura, Burnes, Erceg & Phillips for DeGrom and A Cabrera be fair?

Bryan Grosnick: Fair? Yes, probably. As good as deGrom is, I think a top-five hitting prospect like Hiura makes the base for a very solid return. Burnes and Erceg are very solid supporting pieces, and Brett Phillips is a fine fourth piece. But it's awfully hard to find a pitcher as good and as reliable as deGrom, even if he is a pitcher and therefore doomed to become injured. I might prefer this deal over the Yankees one proposed earlier, simply because I like Hiura more than Andujar.

Greg (Ohio): Should the Reds trade Joey Votto? How many teams do you think he'd accept a trade to?

Bryan Grosnick: This might be an unpopular opinion, but I vote that the Reds keep Joey Votto until retirement. There's a psychic benefit to keeping a guy for his entire career, especially when it's a Hall-of-Fame caliber career. I'm not sure any return would be worth the lost opportunity of Votto being "Mr. Reds" for the first half of the 21st century.

I'd bet he'd take a trade to the Jays, but I'm not in his head, so I can't be sure. Other than that, he'd probably like to play for teams that are solid contenders, and I'd *love* to see him in pinstripes as a full heel.

Craig Goldstein (BP): Alright Bryan, you've done a fantastic job in this chat. I'm going to have to ask that you make sure to answer every Wander Javier question. Thanks

Bryan Grosnick: Ugh, fine.

Dusty (Colorado): Potentially, could Wander Javier be the type of player to make an all-star game? He seems to be very toolsy!


Dusty (Colorado): Is Wander Javier basically Juan Soto but potentially a SS?

Bryan Grosnick: I think you have him confused with Fernando Tatis Jr.

Dusty (Colorado): Wander Javier? In or out? LAST CHANCE!

Bryan Grosnick: Wait, is this really the last one? I'm out!

Gerald (Grinding): All this talk of Wander Javier, when we should be talking about WANDER FRANCO!


Rob (Nevada): Is Wander Franco the next superstar a la Soto to move fast?

Bryan Grosnick: My friends, please stop comping dudes to Soto! If we could predict which 19-year-olds would be able to hit for a .320 True Average in the majors, we'd all be rich and not hanging out in this chat.

Greg (NY ): What can you tell me about Sierra who just got called up by the Marlins? Seems like he needs more time in the minors and not ready for prime time. What’s his long-term outlook ?

Bryan Grosnick: I really, really like Sierra's secondary skills with his speed and his defense, but his offense hasn't come around yet. As far as long-term outlook goes, he could top out as a do-it-all fifth outfielder with no bat, or his hit tool could come around and he could be something of an Ender Inciarte type. There's a broad range of outcomes, almost all dependent on his bat coming alive.

Dusty (Colorado): Why are you a Wander Javier hater? Did you wander into the wrong part of town once and have a bad time? You seem to be criminally low on him compared to the rest of the industry!

Bryan Grosnick: THUS

Wander Franco (TB): Thank you for your support Gerald, but I am no Wander Javier.

Bryan Grosnick: ENDS

Rob Mains (The Track): Can you tell me more about TAV, particularly how Wander Javier ranks in TAV compared to his contemporaries and upside.

Bryan Grosnick: MY

Greg (Colorado): Who is the next Juan Soto?

Bryan Grosnick: CHAT

Bryan Grosnick: Seriously though, thank you all for all the questions and your time! Be on the look out for more Transaction Analysis on the site from a terrific team of writers, and check out the DFA Podcast. Happy deadline!

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