CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
Click here to log in Click here to subscribe

Chat: Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro

Chat Home

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Monday February 05, 2018 12:00 PM ET chat session with Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro.


Jeffrey is the lead prospect writer for Baseball Prospectus and will answer all of the questions you can possibly have about the BP Top 101 Prospects List for 2018.

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: It's a pretty full queue and I am going to try my best to get all of it throughout this afternoon. So let's go.

sykklone (IA): Kingery or Hiura? Is it close??

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: So this came in before the list got posted on the site. They ended up one spot apart, so yes, it was close. I will suggest that Kingery had his breakout to get to this spot, while Hiura still might have his to come. I think he clearly has more upside than Kingery, but more risk and fewer athletic tools, so he's very bat dependent. Boy, we love the bat though. And I wouldn't be shocked if Hiura is a top 20 prospect or even higher this time next year. Of course, Kingery might be an above-average major league regular at that point.

Kyle (Mississippi ): Who is the best catcher prospect out there that will stick at catcher?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: I think Mejia will stick at catcher. The Indians might disagree with that, and their vote counts a bit more than mine. We discussed this issue in more depth on the podcast, but there is value in getting an extra 25 games a year from him at 3B rather than DH if he can handle the hot corner (and he has the physical tools). Past him it's Kelly, Alfaro, and Ruiz. Alfaro has the most upside in the bat, Kelly's the safest glove, and Ruiz splits the difference.

Shawn miller (F4l backroom ): Royce lewis stick at short?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Maaaaaaaaybe. He has the actions and range for it, but there's gonna be questions about whether he can "make all the throws." The fallback here is probably center rather than second at least. And arm strength isn't the issue here, so if he smooths out the throwing mechanics he could be above-average at the 6.

Dusty (Colorado ): After Bichette and Tatis graduate, is Wander Javier the prospect shortstop with the most offensive upside? Thanks so much Jeffrey!

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Dusty...sure, why not.

SNDestroyU (Illinois): Is there a “Next Big Thing” out there that has the hype like Bryce Harper did when he was in high school? Someone that’s not currently in the Top 101, but will be a fast riser, and can be a high schooler, college guy, international player, or a guy in the minors. If not who will be the guy that rises the most in next years rankings like Acuna did?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Harper was on the cover of Sports Illustrated as an amateur and declared a future perennial MVP candidate at 16. So, no, there is not. We talked about a few breakout candidates on the pod, but if you want a non-101 guy, Khalil Lee, Brandon Marsh (although I am personally lower on him than others), and yeah, Wander Javier. Brusdar Graterol and Chris Rodriguez are the arms that come to mind.

And a note on Acuna: I'm not one for victory-lapping, but we were well ahead of the industry on him, and that is a tribute to the work that David Lee did in the Sally in 2016.

Dusty (Washington): Why is Wander Javier not on the 101?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: He was so close, Dusty. So close he is getting a blurb in the supplemental content we have coming on players that just missed.

Tom (Chicago): Hi- what would you expect out of JP Crawford this season ? Do you think his defense at SS will keep him in the majors all season as long as he is at least mediocre on offense. Thank you

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Sure. If he is a plus defensive shortstop, which we certainly believe him to be, if he hits .260/.350/.350 or thereabouts that is a solid regular. Elvis Andrusy, before the fly ball revolution or whatever. Of course there is more upside in the bat too.

Chris (Baltimore): Where might Shed Long rank? Will he ever crack this list?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: He just missed the just missed group. Probably on the cusp of a Top 150? He's a really fun prospect, but might be more fun than good, and there's some swing and miss there. If he conquers Double-A this year I expect he'd make it in 2019.

edwardarthur (Illinois): For the most part this list follows the BP tradition of emphasizing ceiling over proximity -- e.g., Austin Hays behind a number of further away outfielders. Gleyber over Vlad seems a bit different, so I'd be interested in what were the key reasons?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: I could be convinced on 3-4-5 in just about any order. So I don't think there is nearly the same gap between Gleyber and Vladito that there is between like Hays and Taveras. (I also would bump Hays 25 spots if I was filing today instead of five weeks ago). I think there has been some overreaction to Torres' UCL injury, and if he had stayed healthy and kept hitting he would have either been #1 or not eligible for this list. So I don't think there is THAT much more ceiling for Vladito.

Greg (FL): There seem to be a lot of reports about Kolby Allard's fastball backing up last year. Have you heard differently, or can you explain why it doesn't concern you?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't have those reports is the short answer.

JayP (Niagara, ON): True or False: With healthy 2018's, Keston Huira and Jason Groome will be top 10 prospects

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Hiura has a better shot than Groome I think, just because of my general cautiousness with arms. You want a more extended track record for Groome now. He has that kind of talent of course.

Jimmy (Texas): What percent chance would you give Baez to become the #1 SP prospect a year from now? Is the answer you're about to give higher than you thought you'd give?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: He'd be behind Whitley, Sixto, Kopech. I suspect Honeywell, Keller, and Buehler graduate. Kopech could go either way. There's some reliever risk, but maybe 5%. That's pretty high odds relatively speaking, but we've been on him for a while.

Sal (LAD): Dustin May's ranking was a nice surprise. Though he's had good numbers I've read that people believe he isn't going to fill out and might be close to physically maxed out. This ranking implies differently, I guess?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Sure. Despite my attempts to make the Gingergaard nickname stick, he doesn't have Syndergaard's frame. I do think there is more in the tank, but the present stuff is better than he gets credit for, and that's all baked into the ranking. And you could rightly have the same concerns about Triston McKenzie for example.

H.C. (Wyoming): Going to assume Vlad Jr. not being #2 is because of the better defense Torres and Robles provide?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: That's a bit of an oversimplification, but yes we do tend to value up-the-middle defensive tools. I think Robles especially gets underrated on the offensive side because he's a potential gold glove center fielder. This isn't Manny Margot. He can really hit and there's potentially average game power down the line (and we have people on staff that think there might be more than that). Dude hit .320 in Double-A as a 20-year-old and the swing backs up the stats.

Dayman (Philly): Which player inside the top 101 causes the most debate? Why?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: I think the most contentious arguments this year were Chance Adams and Taylor Trammell.

Jeremy (SD): Which player did you fight for but ultimately couldn't get inside the top 101?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: So the nice thing about taking the lead on this list is I can usually squeeze my guys in (see: Arquimedez Gamboa). Would have liked to find room for Yency Almonte, Jose Albertos, and Jhailyn Ortiz.

Sam (Ny): Was David Peterson close

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Yep, and he will be in the supplemental piece.


Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: It was Craig's fault.

Mark Reilly (Sacramento): If time had frozen the pitch before Dustin Fowler hurt his knee, would he gave ranked higher?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: He probably would have gotten enough AB to not be eligible? But yes. Jarrett for one loves him and was arguing him higher even with the knee injury. Without it, he's probably in the 60s somewhere? That's back of the napkin though.

sportz (Beverly Hills Mi): What team had the most prospect that just missed the list..

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Yankees probably throw five more guys on a top 150. Royals had a couple that just missed, as did the Twins.

Avon Barksdale (Bmore): For NL players, who are the top 5 prospects in terms of OBP skillsets?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Robles should have a high BA and get hit by enough pitches to boost the OBP, Senzel has that kind of well-rounded profile as well.
Winker and Crawford are both better in OBP leagues than BA. I'll throw Keston Hiura in here too.

Lawgiver (Kentucky): I'll post the requisite Braves question(s). What kept Austin Riley and Max Fried off the list? How close was Pache? Why do you hate my TEAM?!?!?!

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Austin Riley has just never been my jam, although Javi loves him and Javi knows his shit. Fried looked better in the majors than the minors, but I'd like to see him put together a full healthy season of good pitching at some point. Pache is another guy that probably makes a 150, though I like him less than the industry generally.

Alan (pomona, ca): Having been through a couple of 101 mills, now, what do you think you've learned about the process and about evaluation?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: I think the hardest thing we have conveying is there isn't a secret sauce or a perfect formula. It's never as rigorously internally consistent as I'd like. These are just the 101 guys we like the best. Live looks are the backbone of what we do, which is why we are going to stand out on guys at times (Matias, Gamboa, Sixto, May, Florial, Taveras). We really like those guys, and we have really strong reports. I think if anything I don't lean on those as much as I should. The industry keeps hiring my staff (three more gone this offseason), so obviously we are doing something right.

martin (Reno): I know Brent Rooker isn't your type of profile, but do you believe he will hit MLB pitching?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Maybe Rooker was actually the most divisive guy during 101 discussion. I don't think he was really in discussion, but there were staff members who thought he was a 101 guy and those that didn't think he was a top ten Twins guy. That's borne out in the Twins list of course. I fall somewhere in the middle. He did exactly what he would have to do to be a "good prospect" given his age/background. 2018 will tell us a lot more.

Entropy (Boulder ): 3 of the guys in the 101 must battle the Shield in a 6-man tag. Who do you select to match up with Rollins, Reigns, and Ambrose?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Vladito is the hot tag here obviously. I'll go with Monte Harrison for the general athleticism, and Seth Romero for...other reasons.

Alan (pomona, ca): If Hiura's arm is no longer a problem, is therethere a chance he could see time in Milwaukee this season? Dude can hit!

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't think he will come QUITE that fast, but there could be parallels here with the Mets and Michael Conforto in 2015 if the opportunity presents itself. If it's a playoff race and Villar is hurt or scuffling in August and Hiura is hitting .330 in Double-A...what would you do?

Phillip (Elsewhere): Can you explain the order of the Braves' pitchers? Even with questions about his fastball, Allard ranks ahead of Soroka (with his excellent command, AND above average stuff), Wright (a 1-1 candidate), and Gohara (the hardest throwing lefty starter in baseball). This is not to mention Wentz and Max Fried. Why this order and those omissions?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Sure. We like Soroka, but he doesn't have anything as good in the arsenal as Allard's curve, and the stuff is just really above-average across the board. That said, they were close enough on the list you could flip them if you like. Wright's arm action worries me more than others I guess, and it's not huge upside. We are less confident Gohara is a starter long term. And I've loved Wentz since his amateur days and he's done nothing to dissuade me in the pros. Fried I covered earlier, but dude had a 6.00 ERA in Double-A. I know don't scout the stat line, but there is high reliever probability there too.

fflakes41 (Super Dynasty League): I've seen Adell and Ramos as just about equal in the eyes of most prospectors, but here they are 23 spots apart. What is it that separates them so much? Who would you rather have in a dynasty league draft?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Yeah, we are higher on Ramos. If you are more concerned about the arm issues, ranking him alongside Ramos is fine. In the BP experts prospect draft I'm doing, Adell went about five spots before Ramos. That feels about right to me. Longer amateur pedigree, similar athletic tools, maybe a bit less delta in Adell's bat now. 23 spots feels bigger than it is at that part of the list and we threw 70/55 on both.

Andrew (DC): What got Seth Romero on this list? Did he raise his stock on or off the field in pro ball, or was he a top-101 caliber guy coming into the draft?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: It was top ten pick stuff. The stuff was still there in the pros. This can go bad, but the makeup concerns here are different than say Delvin Perez I think.

Adrian (Trailer at my moms house): Gore seemed like the cant miss lefty in the draft last year yet you guys have him at 29. Am i crazy to say that McKay will no way be a better pitcher than Gore?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: That's not crazy, and if I did the list again today McKay would be ten spots lower as I said on the pod (he's a weird one to deal with). That said I wouldn't call Gore (or any prep arm in this draft) can't miss, and McKay is a better lefty pitching prospect than he gets credit for, because the stuff isn't overpowering.

Dave (Williamsburg): What was the reasoning for ranking Robles above other consensus top prospects (Vlad Jr, Eloy)?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: I've covered this but just want to reiterate that we love Robles and he was 1 on early drafts.

Jim (Vancouver): Hi Jeffrey, Love the prospect stuff here. It's always top notch and the main reason I subscribe to BP. I'm curious about Nate Pearson. I know he was only a 55/45 OFP/Likely on the Jays list, but I'm wondering how close he was to the top 101 with a guy like Matuella (60/45) at 101.

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: He was close enough to get a mench in the just missed blurbs later this week. Steve loves him for one.

dbeattie (Aus): That’s an aggressive ranking for Sixto. What puts him ahead of guys like Buehler, Keller, Kopech for you?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: 95-102 on the fastball with three different looks to it. Potential 7 breaker, 6 change, 7 command, advanced pitchability. If he was 6'3" he'd be top 5. Jarrett argued hard for him to be written as OFP 80.

Jake (FL): I was surprised to see Austin Hays at 72 after his strong showing in his call-up last year. In comparison to another MLB-ready prospect (J.P. Crawford, 14th), doesn't that feel too low for Hays given his floor?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: I'd have Hays closer to 50 now, but the potential gold glove shortstop is always going to have the floor edge over the probable right fielder.

Ryan (Baltimore): I'm surprised to see Arquimedez Gamboa in this list. Is BP the "high man" on the bat or just that big of a fan of his defense?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Probably a little of both. I liked him last year in the NYPL, and he spent most of this year compromised by a leg injury even when he was on the field. The guy the last month of the season looked like a Top 101 guy. It's a broad base of skills over a single carrying tool, but he's should stick at the 6 and I think the bat's underrated.

Andy (Boulder): What's the thought process behind no Andujar?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Another just missed guy. I'm just not an Andujar guy. I don't love the swing or the throwing at third. He keeps making it work though, and I fully admit I may be too stubborn here.

Rick (Milwaukee): Do you see Keston Hiura making it to Milwaukee with a full-time job by the start of the 2020 season ?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Maybe if he misses a year. I suspect he will be up before then.

Jason (Austin): Who will be #1 on this list this time next year? Robles, considering he probably wont exhaust his eligibility.

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: It would be difficult for anyone behind him to jump Vladito. I would expect everyone ahead of him (and a couple guys close behind him) to graduate.

nate (Virginia): Is Alex Reyes' potential higher than some of the names ahead of him? As in, is his spot on the list a buffer against the TJ surgery? (Although you have him higher than most rankings right now)

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: That's fair. If I knew for sure the stuff would come oh let's say at least 93% of the way back, he'd be top five, maybe higher.

JD Moss (Arlington, VA): Concerned about Acuna's K-rate at all? Buxton Part II?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: So I get the concern I suppose, but it wasn't really that bad in this era for a 19yo who scorched three levels and it went down at each stop. You could argue that he never stayed at a level long enough to have to adjust, but he also, uh, scorched three levels as a 19yo. Acuna swings hard, and there's gonna be Ks, but the tradeoff is worth it. Uncle Jack had him a 60 hit due to the bat speed and barrel control FWIW although he had some concerns about swing-and-miss especially when gearing for power.

John H (Chicago Area): Hi which of the pitching prospects do you feel have the potential to be true # 1 starters ? I realize that may include some lower ranked guys that have the upside, but are further away. Thanks

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Would say the highest ("highest") probability number ones are Reyes, Sixto, Whitley, Buehler, Puk, Kopech, Gore. The further down guys are Cease, Baez, Pint, Groome. Eh, screw it, I'll throw the Jesus Lizard in too.

Eric (Toronto): Hey, just a quick one from me. How dare you?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Toronto hasn't been this upset with us since Mort wrote something nice about Syndergaard.

Becca (Ballston, VA): Thoughts on Ryan McMahon at this point?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Man, I don't know? He was a late add to the 101, and I saw him a bunch this year (and last year). The improvements were clear. He's a high probability major leaguer. He's in the right park for his skill set, and I think he's a better third baseman than he gets credit for (and a worse first baseman weirdly). I just think the platoon and spin issues are going to be a limiting factor here.

Greg P. (Boston): I recognize this isn't a fantasy list, but bat-alone would get Michael Chavis on the top 100, wouldn't it?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Ben Carsleys Fantasy Take: Its true that power is at less of a premium today than it was five years ago, but Chavis still has the ceiling of a decent fantasy third baseman and the floor of a passable fantasy CI. Given his proximity to the majors and (to a lesser degree) his potential future home of Fenway that makes him a borderline top-50 dynasty prospect. He does carry risk thanks to the defensive deficiencies and the injury history, though.

JayP (Niagara, ON): How long until people are saying, "Well why wasn't Nate Pearson on the list to begin with?".

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Jay, based on the chat queue it has definitely already started.

David (New York): Was Mark Vientos strongly considered? Is he a breakout candidate to jump high onto next year’s list?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Strongly is a bit strong, but sure he was on the long list. And yeah, I wouldn't be shocked if he hits his way onto next year's.

JayP (Niagara, ON): Franklyn Kilome is back, all the way up at 68?? He disappeared from the radar, and the stat line looked decent, but this seems aggressive. What was so encouraging about the revival?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: He was 74 on last year's list. 95 the year before. We've never really been off him.

Mike (Ontario): Why was Mickey Moniak on the MLB Pipeline list but not this one?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: I can't speak to other lists, but we had 30+ staff looks at him between Jarrett, Greg, and me, and he was never really in consideration. Jarrett and I both wrote longer form pieces about the why this year.

PL (Boston): What do we make of Austin Meadows? Can he still be a 20-20 player in the Majors?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: There's a few guys on this list that just felt like dart throws. I don't like the process to be like that, but it happens sometimes. I really don't know. I struggled with him at midseason too. The injuries are an issue, but a separate issue from his Triple-A struggles. Well, maybe they are. I think the upside is still there, but man I'd like to see a healthy consolidation season where he mashes in Indy.

Mark (Cleveland ): Is Gabriel Arias picking up buzz or is be too far away?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: He's buzzy, tough to stand out as a young middle infielder in the Padres system.

Shane (Atlanta): How much separation is there between Wentz and Sorotka? Does Wentz have a higher ceiling, but lower floor?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: There really isn't a ton and I think that's a fair description. Although guys with Soroka's profile can blow up in rather spectacular ways against major league bats.

sportz (Beverly Hills Mi): No mention of Alex Faedo Jake rogers Matt Manning..thoughts on why

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Faedo was close, but had a down junior year (there's a reason he lasted to 18th after being a 1.1 candidate) and has some recent health issues. Rogers is a "good" prospect but wasn't really in contention for 101. I had two looks at Manning this Summer, and they were frankly awful. I asked around and got better reports, but not so good that it made me have second thoughts about not ranking him.

Tom (College Park): I know he’s been injured, but was Hunter Harvey considered? Did you get any looks at him? What does his stuff look like?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: It looks like Hunter Harvey always looks in his Brigadoonesque appearances. Jarrett has postulated the Orioles are a good spot for him given what they got out of Dylan Bundy, but he needs to have Dylan Bundy's 2017 innings count first.

Josh (Oregon): Will a 2017 draft pick make the majors in 2018? Who will it be?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: I mentioned Hiura as a possibility. There isn't really another college bat that profiles as a super-quick mover. You can argue JBB, Pearson, or Peterson if you made them relievers, but their orgs aren't going to do that. There's probably a third round college reliever I am forgetting. Oh, Wyatt Mills. Somebody like that.

Stone Garrett (FL): I assume Josh Naylor just missed the cut?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: I see what you did there.

Jason (Dallas): Is it all about the floor with Magneuris?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: I guess. I think he'll hit enough, but yeah the speed/glove is carrying the profile. Weirdly he is now the third best "center field" prospect in his org, so I guess we'll see how that plays out.

Paddy (Ireland): You guys seem low on Austin Hays, what do you expect from him this year if in fact he is in the opening day outfield for the O's?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Oh, ~15% better than league average hitter, power over hit, solid corner D, what is that nowadays, Matt Joyce? Corey Dickerson?

Eric (Vegas): Who else was considered for #69?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: I think the other candidates in that range would have been Heliot Ramos, Kilome, Alcantara, Seth Romero, maybe Seuly Matias

Phil (Adelphia): Mark Vientos or Nick Pratto?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: I think Pratto is the better prospect at present, but I'd take Vientos on a personal pref list.

Lance (Lance Island): Who is the 420th best prospect in baseball?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: So, Next ten in a good system, fringe top ten in a worse one. High probability I'd just pick Carlos Tocci.

Jason (Dallas): Is your rating on McKay solely as a pitcher or does the two-way give him a bump?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: He's ranked as a LHP/1B. I prefer him as a pitcher. I don't know exactly how to handle the hitting part of it. Even if he's lets say pre-2017 Eric Hosmer with the bat. He's getting two starts in the field a week maybe? And that's probably not a good enough hitter as a 1b/DH to justify giving up the pitching even if he is a 3/4 starter. So that's 200 at-bats? Is that moving the needle a ton? I honestly don't know. And I don't know how it effects his pitching or vice versa.

Tony (Work): Thoughts behind Alcantara's ranking? Seems a lot of people don't think he'll stick as a starter in the big leagues.

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: If he's 'just' a good late inning reliever (and I think it's closer stuff in that eventuality), I'm find ranking him 70. I've said the same thing about Josh Hader at 19 last year, which is I think a bit more extreme example of this. I think his struggles this year in Springfield got a little overblown because of the park, but there's command and change issues, as you see in a lot of arms in that range.

Alex (GA): Safe to say you aren't as high on the Atlanta rebuild as most based on the rankings?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: I think we ranked nine Braves last year? Seven this year, they will be still in the top 2-3 orgs even after losing an entire IFA class. I suppose it is possible to be higher on them than us, sure.

AJ (Boston): Where do Carter Kieboom and Juan Soto rank if they stayed healthy and kept producing last season?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: I had Soto around Eloy when that came up on the podcast. Kieboom probably jumps to the top of the "Good A-ball guys" tier (Trammell, Sanchez, Jones)

Tom (San Antonio): Is Mitchell White potentially a big riser this year ?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: "Pitcher with good stuff that finally stays healthy for a year" is one of the cohorts you look at for big risers. Now he actually has to stay healthy, mind you.

Hector (Carolina): Pretend McKay gave up hitting and became solely a pitching prospect. Is he a better prospect than David Peterson?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Yeah. More pitches, more polish, better command projection.

Matt (Arizona): Vlad and Senzel aside, is there a single 3B prospect you’d take over Nolan Gorman?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: I assume this is a weird auto correct for Jones? I ranked McMahon and Burger higher (although we can argue over whether they are actually third basemen). II wouldn't take him over Mountcastle (same). I'd probably take Welker too, although Jones has more upside in the bat. Third base prospects are weird, because the present ones may not stick, and the good third base prospects are often playing shortstop in the minors. FWIW, Jones might end up in the former category himself.

Carl (Philadelphia): Where is Jaime Barria?????

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: We had Barria as a safeish number four/five starter. That's usually not a 101 guy.

Matt (Arizona): No, Nolan Gorman is the prep third baseman who might go first overall.

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: If I'm honest I don't start looking at that stuff until March at the earliest.

@MRSUGARPENIS (Twitter): Who was #9 on the Phillies list?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Read the list

Charlie (DC): Which Rockies infield prospects have the best chance of making a top 100 someday? Garrett Hampson? Colton Welker? Ryan Vilade?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Welker and Vilade both have decent shots. Welker the edge because of what he's already done. Hampson is more of a grindy 45 type. He does have a pretty vocal advocate in the room in Wilson though.

Brian (Mke): Thoughts on Luis Robert? What does he need to show this year to move up the rankings?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: If he's close to the player in the Sally or Carolina League that he's been touted as, I suspect he will move up quickly. He was another dart throw for us as we discussed in the White Sox list and elsewhere. It's not impossible he's top ten at midseason.

Otilio G. (Atlanta): Can you give us 3 guys on the back half of the list you could see moving into the top 25 for next year's list?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Other than Robert, I'll throw in Heliot Ramos, Taylor Trammell, and the Jesus Lizard.

Mike (Nevada): Who is the best pure reliever prospect in the minors (as in, someone presently a minor league reliever)? Would you consider a pure reliever for the 101 like Kimbrel and Reed were years ago?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: If Burdi was healthy he, well may have graduated, but he'd be considered. I like Jimmie Sherfy, but he is what he is at this point. I would never say never, but it's a tough road to hoe when like Michael Kopech could be the best reliever in baseball this year or something

Carlos4Lyf (SWFC): Clint Frazier ranked 53 on the 2016 list, between Honeywell and Adames; and jumped a few spots ahead them on the 2017 list. Given what he did in the minors, would he rank similarly to them again this year if eligible?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Guessing he'd be closer to Brinson/Tucker/Soto. He's another guy that's been divisive internally though.

I am dreading the 5th round tie at this point, for the record.

Matt (Albuquerque): What are the chances Keibert Ruiz jumps into the top-ten in the next year or two?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: We aren't opposed to pushing a catcher hard (and we got pushback that Ruiz was still too low even after bumping him a bunch from early drafts). And you could argue he is a similar place Mejia was coming off 2016. So I guess I am sort of talking myself into this as a possibility.

a.j. (dallas): Mountcastle and Burger but not Andujar. What separates these 3B to rank them this way?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: We like the bats more, and don't see Andujar as a sure shot third baseman to make up the difference is the short answer. The slightly longer answer is functionally the difference between 60 and 105 isn't all that significant.

PKIII (SC): Dynasty League Draft - which of these top 101 players do you take with first pick? Luis Robert, Keston Hiura, Royce Lewis, Hunter Greene, Mackenzie Gore, Jo Addell

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Oooooh, If you want surety I'd go Hiura, but I'd be sorely temped by Adell or Robert. Less interested in the pitchers.

Sean (Los Angeles): In your opinion who is the most exciting Oakland Athletics prospect?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Austin Beck will not be boring, however it plays out.

Josh (Chicago): You guys are higher on Jake Burger than any other publication out there. Is that you trust the bat to become really good? Or that his defense will become passable enough to stay at 3B? Or (likely) a combination of the two? Thanks!

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: A large portion of our staff is partial to big beefy boys that hit the ball hard. The double stack fits that bill well.

Ryan (Montreal): What is it about Matuella that got him on this list? Is his stuff back?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: 95-97 particularly effective two-seam, potential plus change and average curve when I saw him. Granted that didn't always show up start to start, but if it had he would have been much higher.

Henry (Paris): Wander Franco just missed ?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: I've decided to err on the side of not ranking this year's J2 guys generally or on the 101. There's just no new info in most cases and it's too much apples to oranges based on the way we do things.

Aaron (Rochester): How close was Yordan Alvarez to making the 101???

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: He was in consideration. Another just missed the just missed.

Jacob (DC): Do prospects with boring names like Ian Anderson get overlooked? What do you expect of Ian Anderson?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: I haven't been able to say Heliot Ramos without hearing the "Stelio Kantos" song from American Dad in my head for months. You might be onto something. I like Ian Anderson, but have him a bit behind the other Braves arms because he's been used lightly and needs a bit more refinement than the names ahead of him. Could be a bit of a cold weather prep arm bias.

Mike (Boston): When does the dynasty 101 come out?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: That is a question for the fantasy team, but I'd assume in the next week or two. Usually drops at the end of the positional previews I think.

Jason (Milwaukee): What is it about Corbin Burnes that got him ranked so highly? Think he gets a sniff in Milwaukee in September?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Fastball velocity popped a bit this year. Slider and change took a step forward. I'd expect to see him at some point in 2018. But a lot of that depends on where they are in the race and what arms they add in the interim.

Greg Ramos (Oakland): Do you think that Franklin Barreto is likely to move off SS?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: I think he's a better fit at second or center, but the Athletics generally tend to be more liberal in what they want out of their shortstop gloves.

Kole (St. Paul): What does Akil Baddoo have to do to be top 50 next year?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: The power he showed in short-season is real and it continues to show up in games in full season. That gets him most of the way there I think. He wasn't all that far off the 101 this year.

Chansen8895 (San Jose, CA): Any thoughts on Jhailyn Ortiz from a 101 perspective? or is he just a better fantasy profile.

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Hey another just missed guy. We should have more thoughts on him soon, but the general idea that he is a better fantasy prospect than actual prospect is fair.

John (Orlando): Where would you put Dansby Swanson if he was magically still eligible?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Hoo boy. Man, it looked bad. Like forgot how to hit bad. I've been fairly resistant to moving guys like Meadows and Crawford, but they also had longer pro track records as hitters than Swanson. Barreto range maybe? That feels too steep, though.

Ryan (Montreal): I've read varying reports on Jordan Hicks. Can you tell us what the BP team thinks of him? Thanks.

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Okay, lightning round time:

Just missed the 101, might have best non-Reyes in the Cards org, but higher reliever probability

Chad (OKC): For fantasy purposes, would the ranked order for the OF trio of Ramos,Adell,Robert change at all?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Not really, although you could argue Robert at 1.

James (Colorado): Was MJ Melendez considered?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: He was not

Will (Pennsylvania ): Was Landon Leach considered?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: No, although it's a profile I kinda like

brendonkuhn (Vancouver): Nate Pearson, was he closing to make the top 100?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Very!

Paul W (Charlotte): Where will Griffin Conine be on next year’s list?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: The scant amateur reports I do pay attention to this early are mixed. I wouldn't even hazard a guess until he is in a pro system. So much can change in the Spring.

Paul Meison (Miami): Thanks for the chat. You guys seem pretty high on Ronald Guzman. He seems like a high floor, low ceiling guy, which seems to buck your trend on 'toolsy guys'. What am I missing on Guzman?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't think much. We think he'll hit enough to be a solid regular. Not much more to it than that. 80-150 or so can be more heavily pref based.

GoGoWazoo (Denver): Did McMahon's defensive profile, likely that he lands at 1B or a corner, lead to him ranking so low? Bat seems legit.

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Somewhat, but I think I am lower on the bat as well. He looked lost against same-side pitching at times, and the parks he played in were very friendly. Bat is certainly legit though.

Mike (South Dakota): Was Wil Crowe considered?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: There were some other Nats on our long list, he was not one of them.

John (NYC): Odds Desmond Lindsay makes next year’s top 50?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: I am not off the Lindsay bandwagon, but I'm eyeing the next stop.

Ryan (Montreal): Were Kaprielian and Braxton Garrett on the just missed list?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Kaprelian was closer than Garrett. Neither actually made the just missed list.

Cameron (The John): What grade would you put on Luis Urias's hit/OBP tool, and who on the list do you feel will has better one?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't really grade OBP. He's a plus hitter with a good approach, may not have enough power to keep MLB pitchers honest. It's probably the best hit tool outside the top 50.

Ryan (Montreal): Is the Seuly Matias ranking based on his tools, or did they start to show up more in games last year?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: More the former than the latter, but the tools are quite real.

David (NH): MJ Melendez or Will Smith?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Smith on proximity/floor, but if you told me you preferred Melendez's upside, sure.

Lois (LI): Ty Bashlor. Thoughts?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: If the command jump is real, he arguably should be the eighth inning guy out of camp.

Kyle (Philly): Mickey Moniak not on the 101??? Why does everything bad happen to Philly sports teams?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Trust the process I guess.

Nate (Boston): I know you don't follow the draft, but will the Mets draft Conine?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: I wouldn't be shocked, but he's less of a "Mets pick" than some other guys that should be around at 6, as much as anyone has any feel for that in February.

Mike (Canada): Can Luis Robert rocket up this year with his hit tool. Robert or Royce Lewis for dynasty leagues?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't actually have a strong take either way here.

Ryan (Montreal): Is Delvin Perez gonna hit enough to make this list in the future?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: The 2017 reports were bad, man.

Chad (OKC): What are the chances Hans Crouse can stick as a SP? Is the control or lack of a third reliable pitch the biggest obstacle?

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: The people that really like Hans Crouse REALLY REALLY LIKE HANS CROUSE. I fall in the "those are some large obstacles at present" camp.

Top 101 with Jeffrey Paternostro: Okay, did my best to cut through the queue, but you guys are voracious. List season is mostly done. Down to org rankings and Futures Guide Edits. As always, thanks for reading/subscribing.

Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Customer Service  |  Newsletter  |  Masthead  |  Contact Us