|
Jarrett is a member of our prospect team, and contributor to BP Mets.
Jarrett Seidler: Howdy all! Pretty much anything's on the table this evening, already have a lot of good questions in so we'll probably be here for a bit. You're much more likely to get a good answer if it's a topic I'm familiar with, so MLB, Mets, prospects that I've seen, West Wing, obscure pro wrestling...
Sam (NJ): #1 prospect in 2018, 2019 and 2020?
Jarrett Seidler: 2018: Victor Robles
2019: Eloy Jimenez
2020: Jason Groome
Nick (Over): Who is the Roman Reigns of baseball and why?
Jarrett Seidler: I mean, isn't it Bryce Harper? Harper's very good, and so is Reigns, but neither is quite the best. He's popular within a certain sect, but gets booed, largely for what he represents. And they're both super-pushed.
Alberto (Brooklyn): How many big leaguers did the Mets draft this year? Who, outside of Dunn and Alonso?
Jarrett Seidler: History tells us probably about 5, but trying to identify *which* right now is not fun. Let's throw a shot in the dark and go with Tiberi, Viall, and Planck, but realistically like 15 or 20 of those dudes have a shot.
Seth (CT): BEST Prospect nobody is talking about?
Jarrett Seidler: Is Rafael Devers too good for this? He got off to an awful start, but his 2016 is now like a dead ringer for his 2015, and he's still young and still in a horrible place to hit. Yet, it seems like he's lost in the shuffle.
Paul (DC): Is Chris Devenski's future with the Stros in the bullpen or as a starter?
Jarrett Seidler: Not all that familiar, so I asked someone who is and got a very quick "reliever" answer.
Weston (Orange Plains): Better chance of HOF- Jay Bruce or Dilson Herrera?
Jarrett Seidler: Bruce and it's not even close. Dude has 237 homers at age 29, and while I don't love what he is right now -- he might even just be done -- there's a realistic path to 500 homers there. Dilson Herrera does not have that realistic a path to career milestones.
Gio (Seaside): Have heard some pretty glowing things about Alonso prior to his injury. Are you buying into this hype?
Jarrett Seidler: I don't think Alonso's stock has changed that much from the draft. Is there really that much difference in quality of pitching from the SEC to the New York-Penn League? He's cool, and you always prefer a guy to hit well than not so well, but first base profiles are tough (more on Dom Smith later), and I'm not in love with the swing.
Bryan G (Michigan): Hey there, Jarrett. Who has been your favorite Met to watch this season? (MLB only!)
Jarrett Seidler: Hey, boss! It's Noah Syndergaard.
Paul (DC): Owning an 8 and 1 record with a 4.61 ERA in relief, can we safely award the Stros' Michael Feliz with this year's Win Vulture award?
Jarrett Seidler: Mychal Givens is 8-1 with a 3.52 ERA, so not that far behind. But yeah, looking like it.
Al (NY): Judge and Conforto ROS? ROC (career)?
Jarrett Seidler: Conforto for both, because he's done it in the majors. My co-host Jeffrey Paternostro had a very good article last week for BP Mets positing what Conforto would look like if still a prospect, and it's a heck of a lot better than Judge has ever looked.
Brad (NJ): Jarrett, How high do you see Alonso ranking in the mets top 10 prospects? What kind of future do you put on him?
Jarrett Seidler: For me, at the very back of the list or off it. I think he's got a shot to be a good regular. But, again, first base profiles are really tough.
Samoan Joseph (California): Hi Jarrett,
If you were in charge of a front office and could hire 3 people from BP or Fangraphs who would you hire??
Jarrett Seidler: This feels like stepping on a land mine. Both sites have some incredible, incredible talent, especially with stats and player development. Seriously, the stuff that, like, the BP Stats team does blows my mind. Can I hire like Harry Pavlidis, Jonathan Judge, and Eric Longenhagen to run stats and scouting stuff and then empower them to hire like 10 or 15 more people?
(Sorry Craig.)
Craig (NYC): What kind of potential does Andres Gimenez have? Future top prospect?
Jarrett Seidler: A few Andres Gimenez questions tonight. Unfortunately, Gimenez is in a huge blind spot for public prospect analysis -- the international complex leagues. I can try to give you an answer based on looking up YouTubes, or I can tell you that Ben Badler from Baseball America knows way more about this stuff than I do and is really high on him. The latter is probably more valuable information to you.
Fred (New Jersey): Hypothetically, if Andres Gimenez had been allowed to re-enter the IFA pool this summer (after most of the season was competed), how much money would he have gotten?
Jarrett Seidler: This is an Andres Gimenez question I can at least take a better swing at. A lot more teams blew the IFA cap this year, and his stock is clearly up, but there seems to be a ceiling right around $4m for what teams will pay for "normal" teenage J2 types. So let's guess $3-4m. This is a total guess.
Nick (NY): Andres Giminez - should I own him in my dynasty league? Can he be a top 10 prospect down the line?
Jarrett Seidler: Let's finish out the trinity of Andres Gimenez questions. I know very little about fantasy at this point. There's absolutely that kind of elite upside based on his reports, but he's at least a couple years away from actualizing it, and a zillion things can happen between the DSL and the top of the prospect lists, let alone the majors. Excited to see him show up stateside, though.
JP (Rural CT): Hi Jarrett, better chance of starting a hypothetical Game 163 for the Mets: Michael Conforto or Alejandro de Aza?
Jarrett Seidler: Hi Jeffrey! It's de Aza, right? Pretty good chance they're facing Bumgarner, and Conforto doesn't start against lefties, and I can see Collins playing for defense.
I want to cry reading that paragraph back.
Greg (NY): Can we agree Fuku disappointing? What's your favorite food spot at Citi?
Jarrett Seidler: You just asked a vegetarian to review fried chicken. Shake Shack or Mama's.
Al (NY): How do I download your podcasts to my iPhone?
Jarrett Seidler: I think we should be available by searching "For All You Kids Out There" in the stock Podcasts app. I personally use a third-party app called Downcast.
Steve (Chicago): Vlad Guerrero JR a furutre top 10 prospect?
Jarrett Seidler: I don't think we had eyes on Vlad Jr. this year, so I know about as much as you. He's got a chance, but like Andres Gimenez, there's quite a lot between here and there.
Greg (Peoples): What's going on with Aaron Judge?
Jarrett Seidler: Judge has a ton of swing and miss in his game, and has always had some trouble adjusting to new pitching. Combine that with a Voros's Law level sample size, and you can get this. I still like him long-term.
Mike (NY): So who do you take J.P. Crawford or Amed Rosario and do you have a guy who could really rise in prospect ranks next year?
Jarrett Seidler: Crawford. I'll be a homer and take Thomas Szapucki for the second part. I guess this begins the Thomas Szapucki portion of the chat.
Craig (Queens): I know you saw Szapucki in person - how high are you on him and what do you think his OFP is?
Jarrett Seidler: Very high. I hate using OFP, but he's got a chance to be a top of the rotation arm, so I guess that's a 65 or so? I'm stipulating this that the risk is super-super-duper high -- he's yet to pitch anything resembling a full season, he ended the season with back problems, he's yet to pitch in a full-season league...
Henry (Hawthorne): I've seen a lot of peoples' takes on Szapucki. Some say he has upside and stuff to be in the front of an MLB rotation. Others say he's better suited for the pen. What do you think
Jarrett Seidler: On *skill*, he's absolutely a starter for me. It's a starter's group of pitches, it's a starter's body, it's a starter's delivery.
Whether or not he can throw 200 innings in the majors, man, you almost have to flip a coin on these guys at this point.
Gare (SNY): Hey Jarrett, love your work
Rank these Mets prospect starters: Szapucki, Dunn, Flexen, Molina, Gsellman, Kay, Merandy, Humphreys
Jarrett Seidler: Szapucki, Dunn, Gsellman, Molina, Flexen, Kay, Merandy, Humphreys. Szapucki is clearly at the top for me, Dunn and Gsellman are clearly the next two for me but I'm not totally sure of the order, and then the rest is what kinda looks right but I don't feel strongly about.
Eric (NY): The Cyclones were pretty loaded with talent this yr with Dunn, Szapucki, Alonso, The Gonzalez's, Lindsay, Sanchez and Carpio. How would you rate those guys and how many do you think are possible future (or current) top 100 global types?
Jarrett Seidler: More rankings! Szapucki, Dunn, Lindsay, Carpio, Sanchez, Alonso, Harol, Merandy sound about right? The Mets do like to have a good Brooklyn team...
Greg (Fordham): Hypothetical: If there was a 20 year old pitching prospect in A-ball, and I told you he would have an identical career to Steven Matz, where would he rank on your top 100?
Jarrett Seidler: I think the actual answer is about where Steven Matz ranked last year, around the bottom of the top 10. But you're giving me clairvoyance on how the guy pitched in the high minors and his first year in the majors, and what he looks like at 25. So I'd put him at 9 or whatever, look like an idiot at the time the list came out, and then look like a genius five years down, I think?
Jim (Massapequa): Do you think Gavin Cecchini could play either CF or 3B?
Jarrett Seidler: CF seems like a stretch, he's an average runner. 3B, probably, but that's one of those positions that involves quick twitch and reactions and sometimes you just don't know for sure until a dude goes there.
Joffrey (Kings landing): What's a realistic projection for Dunn? What about 75th percentile/optimistic projection? Where will he be on top 100s?
Jarrett Seidler: Realistic: high impact reliever or 3rd/4th starter.
75th percentile: number two starter.
We haven't really started the official team top 10 process yet, let alone the top 100 lists, so I don't really know where Dunn will rank. I would guess towards the back of the 101 or off it. Ask me again in four months, heh.
Tommy (Bay Ridge): How much should we believe in Phil Evans having figured something out in AA?
Jarrett Seidler: I like Phil Evans, but this totally came out of nowhere and is pretty much all some extra singles, right? It gives him a shot at the majors in a utility role, I suppose.
bwallacewells (Boston): Jose Reyes has changed his approach some and the surface-level stats suggests he's become at least somewhat more effective--more strikeouts, more walks, more power. How much faith do you have that what we're seeing is for real? And how likely do you think it is that we see Reyes in a Mets uniform in 2017?
Jarrett Seidler: As a player, Reyes only had a really bad season in 2015 -- he'd been decent in 2014 and outright good before that -- and there were a lot of injury excuses. There might be some Kevin Long magic here.
There's about a 95 percent chance Reyes is in a Mets uniform next year, and the 5 percent involves off-the-field stuff. They have a team option for the league minimum and his on-field contribution is clearly worth more than that.
Irvin (Trenton): Have you gotten a chance to see Des Lindsay play? I haven't seen firsthand but have heard great things--can you weigh in? Is this a guy that we could bee seeing on top 100s midseason next year?
Jarrett Seidler: I have. He still looked somewhat compromised by the leg injuries when I saw him, but I love the approach and swing. We don't do a midseason top 101, but I wouldn't be staggeringly shocked if he was on next year's midseason top 50...if he can stay healthy.
Jerry (Long Island): Did you get a chance to see Dez Lindsay? How good can he be?
Jarrett Seidler: Lindsay definitely has a chance to be a good starting outfielder. Dunno if the CF part will stick.
Dan (Bronx): Jarrett! Tell me everything you have to say about Dom Smith! If you say something good, don't worry, I wont tell Jeff.
Jarrett Seidler: I feel like I may be the last prospect guy on the planet without a strong Dom Smith opinion these days.
Dom Smith absolutely has a chance to be a good major league first baseman. It's a tough profile because the floor is that he's a Triple-A dude, because teams usually don't carry first base only backups and he doesn't project anywhere else. The difference between the 20th best 1B in baseball and the 40th best 1B in baseball is slim on talent, but huge on what the career looks like, and that's not the case for like the 20th best SS or C or CF vs. the 40th best.
Mike (NY): So where do you think Victor Robles starts next year in the minors and do you see another Robles guy coming up from rookie ball and SS-A?
Jarrett Seidler: Love me some Victor Robles. The injury might mean he spends a couple months in High-A next year, but the Nats are aggressive and if he looks good enough in spring, he could get a Double-A assignment.
I don't think anyone exploded quite as much this year as Robles did last year. It's really, really, really hard for an short-season guy to jump from off the map to a global top 30 prospect. Maybe Triston McKenzie or Szapucki?
Jeff (Penn): Anything on Anthony Kay? Think he gets TJ this offseason or what?
Jarrett Seidler: I'm not sure I've heard a single thing on Kay since he signed. No idea what the health situation is there.
Lemon Lyman (NYC): Which prospect are you most proud you got right, and which did you completely whiff on?
Jarrett Seidler: Of recent guys, I really believed in Lindor's bat and defense and I feel really good about him turning out to be a superstar and not just a glove and singles dude. I also thought Addison Russell profiled best at second base. Whoops.
Mike (NY): Is Francisco Lindor better than you ever imagine he would be and who do you pick, Lindor, Correa, Bogaerts, Russell, or Seager?
Jarrett Seidler: I guess let's go Lindor, Seager, Correa, Bogaerts, Russell, but there's literally no wrong answer here and I could be convinced of these in nearly any order.
MW (Upstate NY): Hey Jarrett, do you think Juan Soto is next year's Eloy Jimenez?
Jarrett Seidler: Didn't get a chance to see him. Have heard some excellent things. Certainly could be.
Devin (Albany): How much should we be buying into Dom Smith's surge over the past few months?
Jarrett Seidler: Tim Finnegan (who is an up-and-coming name to know in the community) did some digging and found that he was starting to pull the ball for power. That's probably the key here, so a bit? I don't think the concerns or upside is substantially different, but he's closer to being the upside.
Ryan (Chicago): What can you tell us about Isaac Paredes? He's a player that i know very little about, but for him to be called up to South Bend for the playoffs is very interesting.
Jarrett Seidler: Not much that you don't already know. He was a six-figure bonus guy and obviously the Cubs think highly of him. Suspect Mauricio Rubio is the guy to ask on this one.
fightingmoose (Manitoba, Canada): With a stacked Red Sox system with limited playing time, do you think Swihart gets moved in the offseason to a different club and starts a regular catching gig? I was really hoping that he would stick behind the plate. As it stands, he won't even have catcher eligibility in my fantasy league next year.
Jarrett Seidler: The outfield trial didn't go so well, did it? Sandy Leon can't possibly be this good, but he's probably seized the Red Sox catching job for awhile, and Christian Vazquez is still around. He seems like a prime candidate for a change of scenery, and it wouldn't shock me if he's a prime post-hype sleeper.
Catcher development patterns are weird.
Mike (NY): Think we will ever see another Mike Trout in our lifetimes?
Jarrett Seidler: There may never be another player who is as good as young as Trout has been. Probably not.
We don't appreciate how historic Trout has been nearly enough. Part of that is the Angels and part of that is awards and part of that is his personality and who knows what else. But this is something you will probably never see again.
Robert (St lucie): You buying into the idea that Nido can be an everyday C?
Jarrett Seidler: Tomas Nido time! Yeah, he's got a shot. That's going to be an interesting 40-man decision for the Mets this offseason.
Rich (NJ): Tomas Nido had a breakout campaign in St Lucie? Should we be buying in? Is he legit?
Jarrett Seidler: I think so, though I'll stipulate that I don't see the FSL. He's always projected as a very good defender, which means the hitting bar isn't that high. Thomas Desmidt had a pretty strong report on him this year.
Earl (NJ): Of the big 3 NL east SS prospects, which would you most like to build a team around? Are they all top 10 guys at this point?
Jarrett Seidler: Crawford. I like Rosario a lot, and Swanson's already holding his own in the majors, but it's Crawford.
Ades (mi): What do you make of these new Mets pitchers, Gsellman and Lugo? Both seem to be effective w good stuff.
Jarrett Seidler: I wrote Gsellman up for an upcoming BP Mets piece that should be up before the week is out, but the short version is that I think he's got a pretty good shot to be a mid-rotation guy with a 2 upside.
I like Lugo a lot. I have less faith that what he can do is repeatable over 30 starts just because he's never really pulled it off. But what he's profiling at right now probably is something like a 4. That leads into our next question pretty well...
Jared (Queens): Mets seem to have a bunch of these middle-back of rotation pitchers: Montero, Gsellman, Lugo and Ynoa. Specifically, Lugo and Gsellman have looked the best and have each shown at least one (with potential for another) plus offspeed offering to pair with above verage fastballs. Just from the eye test (and statcast in Lugo's case), these guys look like middle of the rotation starters. Is it possible that coming up in a Mets farm with flaming throwing, ace-level prospects has caused these guys to be overlooked. If they were in, say the Marlins or Orioles orgs, would we have been hearing about them a little more. Furthermore, do you see any of those 4 guys having a career in an MLB rotation, and where in the rotation? Thanks Jarrett, I know that's a lengthy one.
BTW-love the podcasts with you and Jeff
Jarrett Seidler: So Gsellman and Lugo didn't look like their major league versions as prospects. The velocity has jumped rather significantly, and held over full starts. In Gsellman's case, the slider went from nonexistent to a work-in-progress to a major league plus pitch. I'm planning on addressing this *next* week for BP Mets, but I think the real question is how to handle that the majority of Mets pitching prospects seem to come up with extra velocity and magic new pitches over the minor league reports. They're maximizing nearly everyone. Except Rafael Montero for whatever reason.
Gsellman or Ynoa might've gotten a little more hype in another organization, I guess.
Greg (San Francisco): Looking ahead to 2017, the A's appear to have 3/5 of their rotation, assuming health, locked in for before the trading deadline: Sonny Gray, Sean Manaea, and Kendall Graveman. Out of Jesse Hahn, Chris Bassitt, Henderson Alvarez, Daniel Mengden, Jharel Cotton, Raul Alcantara, Dillon Overton, and Frankie Montas, who can round out the rotation, who is more of a 4A player, and who just won't every be healthy enough again (looking at you, Jesse Hahn and Henderson Alvarez!)?
Jarrett Seidler: I'm mostly going to have to go off colleagues' reports, because I don't get any Oakland affiliates out here on the east coast. Seems to me like Mengden, Overton, and Alcantara have the best shots to be MLB starters, whereas Montas and Cotton might be better prospects but also probably profile best in relief. That may be completely wrong, though.
Hard not to feel for Henderson Alvarez given how his last couple years have went.
Jorge (Detroit): Am I crazy in think the Mets legitimately go 20-25 deep with "good" prospects. I know they arent top heavy but it seems to me the system is very very deep right now. Thoughts?
Jarrett Seidler: I don't think it's *quite* that deep. Like, the Yankees go much deeper for guys that project to really help in the majors. But there are guys that won't make the system top ten but are still pretty good prospects, sure.
Glenn (Ann Arbor): Big prospect guy here- am trying to get a feel for the best players in each teams' farm system. Seeing as you cover the Mets, I'm sure you know a fair deal about Rosario and Smith (Mets seemingly two best prospects). Can you tell me your outlook on what kind of players they are along with a realistic and optimistic projection? I'd really, really appreciate it. Thanks!
Jarrett Seidler: Rosario is a potential five-tool superstar shortstop and his realistic projection isn't all that far below that. Smith is a potential very good first baseman who will put up a high average and chip in some power, and a realistic projection is probably closer to league-average.
Geoff (OC): Which of the big 3 NL east SS prospects would you like to build a team around and why?
Jarrett Seidler: I think I already answered basically the same question, but this one asked why. Crawford's reasonable floor is a potential Gold Glove shortstop who puts up a pretty decent OBP, and he's got a good feel for hitting, incredible athleticism, and more raw power than you'd think, so there's more upside. Rosario's got the upside, but the floor is much lower, and Swanson has a floor that's close to Crawford's, but without the upside.
fightingmoose (Manitoba, Canada): Which of the following catching prospects has the highest offensive ceiling in your opinion? F. Mejia, J. Nottingham, or A. Hedges? I've heard nothing to suggest Mejia or Hedges will be moved off the catching position but are you worried Nottingham may be at some point? Has Nottingham improved defensively this year?
Jarrett Seidler: Gotta be Mejia, right? That's some breakout season. There's been concern about Nottingham catching for awhile now, and I haven't heard much to indicate a vast improvement. But I also haven't had eyes on him this year.
Beach Bum (Ocean City): Both Brett Honeywell and Chance Adams pitched at AA level this year. Any chance we'll see them in the majors next year? What is a realistic expectation for both?
Jarrett Seidler: I did see Chance Adams, though I kept getting bumped off his starts towards the end of the year by his schedule being jumbled and me having a real job. I think both Adams and Honeywell have reasonable mid-rotation upside.
Once you're in Double-A as a pitcher of note, you're only one injury or doubleheader or whatnot from getting a call-up, so yeah, they both have a shot.
andwoo (DC): Ricardo Cespedes really seemed to have a great last 30 games or so. What's the best case for his development, and at this stage, the most likely?
Thanks!
Jarrett Seidler: That's a weird, incredibly singles heavy stat-line. Jeffrey was very high on his bat coming into the season and I haven't heard much to move me from that. You can squint and see a regular outfielder in four or five years.
Brad (NJ): What do you think of Tyler O'Neill he seems to be underrated. He has hit for power and this year average and power in pitchers leagues. What are your thoughts on him?
Jarrett Seidler: Weirdly haven't heard much on him. Obviously with that profile Double-A is a significant test, and he passed.
greg (NY): Would you let Bruce go after the season? If not, do you have to get rid of Collins to manage the outfield properly?
Jarrett Seidler: I would, but I also never would've made the trade to begin with. I do think if you keep Bruce, it has to be as the 1B, right?
Ernie (SI): Assuming the Mets resign Cespedes, how do you see the Mets OF situation playing out going into next season?
Jarrett Seidler: Cespedes/Lagares/Conforto, Bruce at first or released, and Granderson either as an active fourth or traded.
steaka (NYC): Got a guess on a JP Crawford ETA?
Jarrett Seidler: Assuming the CBA doesn't make major changes to service time, either late-April or June of next year. I suspect most teams would've had him up already, but wins don't matter in 2016 to Philly's front office.
Gavin (Chelsea): What does Champ Stuart need to do to become Billy Hamilton?
Jarrett Seidler: Champ is an 80 runner, but he isn't Billy Hamilton fast, because Billy Hamilton is borderline off the 20-80 scale. And he's a long way from even hitting Hamilton's empty .260.
Stuart should also probably be on the Mets expanded roster right now, because he absolutely could be Terrance Gore right now, and the Mets are using guys like Ty Kelly and Gsellman to pinch-run.
Greg (Albany): How good is Rosario at this point? Top 10 prospect? 4 WAR guy?
Jarrett Seidler: He's got a shot at the top 10, although again, that's a long way from being finalized. I don't think he'd put up a 4 WARP in 2017, but stranger things have happened.
Phil (Glenbrook): What a second half for Philly Evans. What does this mean for his prospect status and his potential ML outlook?
Jarrett Seidler: He's went from being someone that the Mets weren't prioritizing to get playing time in the minors to *having* a potential MLB outlook. That's a big deal.
Hamilton (Brooklyn): You buying this revitalized Jose Reyes?
Jarrett Seidler: Yep, I think he's probably something like an average or slightly above player still. And I'm still ambivalent at best about his presence on the team.
greg (NY): Can we talk about why James Loney is still starting games? Wilmer Flores is almost as good against righties at this point.
Jarrett Seidler: Terry Collins loves veterans. One of the problems with employing James Loney is that your manager can keep justifying James Loney because he's still hitting .270 or whatever with a reputation as a good glove even when he's significantly sub-replacement.
There's no excuse for Loney to see another start this year. If you're that set on starting a lefty there, Bruce has 1B experience and relieves the OF logjam, and Kelly Johnson is also a better player.
This is the only Wilmer Flores question, so I'll throw this in: I think this might be the emergence we've been waiting years for. Finally. Hopefully. I love the dude. Maybe it's wishcasting.
Tina (Tempe): Is it possible that we're all sleeping on Nimmo? Has some pretty good tools and great makeup. Wouldn't surprise me to see him as an OBP, high effort driven CF
Jarrett Seidler: If the Mets trusted him at all in CF, he'd be playing there over guys like de Aza and Granderson. Even when he was playing, they were playing dudes like that in CF over him.
I like Nimmo. I think Nimmo deserves a shot to be a regular player. I have utterly no idea how he fits on the 2017 Mets, and I don't think going back to Vegas does him a lot of good. They were obviously close to moving him at the deadline, and he could be an offseason trade chip.
Devin (Albany): I absolutely love Tim Finnegan's work so I'm glad you mentioned him......I was also wondering what you think about the Mets prospect depth. Seems to me that in the past a guy like Matt Reynolds or Josh Edgin (i.e. backup or reliever close to majors) would easily profile around 15ish or so but I cant see a guy like that on a current Mets list higher than around 30 or so.
Jarrett Seidler: At the time that Reynolds was in that mix, he wasn't projecting to be a fringe utility guy, he was projecting to be a potential starting SS. Edgin, I don't know if he was really ever that high in the system.
It's absolutely deeper than when it was digging out of the dregs of those late Omar drafts, because the Alderson regime has prioritized depth in both the draft and IFA. I just don't know that it's unusually deep compared to the crowd.
Dave (Manhattan): Aside from Szapucki who surprised you the most (in a good way) in the Mets system this yr?
Jarrett Seidler: My answer to a similar question on the podcast was Seth Lugo. Lugo was a borderline bizarre 40-man add that projected to be something like a middle reliever if all went right, and all of a sudden we're talking about him like he might stick in a rotation or be an impact late-inning arm.
Richie (Newark): If cabrera manages to stay healthy all next yr and plays ok again do you see any way the Mets bring Rosario up? I half wanna see him start as the OD ss (with say cabrera/reyes at 3b) just for the defensive upgrade alone.
Jarrett Seidler: Cabrera has a lot of experience at 2B and skills that should match well with 3B, so yeah, I think Rosario could bump him over if Rosario has a big camp and/or early part of the season. Raise the odds if Collins isn't next year's manager.
Jubbs (EST): Can you say a few words about David Paulino? do you think he can be a 60 role player?
Jarrett Seidler: The two month suspension was really bizarre. Did the reason ever come out?
Brendan Gawlowski had a report in this week's Ten Pack that would peg him around there or a little lower.
Bill (Bayonne): Speaking of Ynoa, he was talked of as a "Warthen slider" bump guy before the season. Are there any hints of that emerging yet in his major league outings?
Jarrett Seidler: It's been his primary offspeed offering out of the MLB pen. It isn't quite the automatic plus pitch that it's been for other guys, but it has potential to get there.
Aaron (Nj): Who is Michael conforto. What kind of player will he be in 2017 and beyond? I have no clue what to make of him at this point
Jarrett Seidler: I think Michael Conforto is an above-average MLB COF that needs a manager that's going to play him for 150 games and stop messing around. I don't see any indication Terry Collins is that manager.
As of right now, he probably needs to be a CF to have a MLB regular role breaking camp on the 2017 Mets, and even at that Collins would platoon him with Lagares. It's turning into a bad situation and at some point you start wondering what happened that we don't know about.
Steve (Philly): Ok so here's a Wilmer question for you: I love what Wilmer's shown and I like that he's even started to hit righties. He obv has a major league role.....that being said, he still cant field and I'm not even sure what role he's have on the Mets next season. What do you see from him going forward?
Jarrett Seidler: He's a very good 1B, fine at 2B and 3B, and he can play a 30 shortstop in an emergency. Given that versatility and the injury concerns of, well, everyone else in the Met infield, I'm fine with letting him be the fifth infielder that's essentially a regular without a designated position. The 2017 Mets probably have 130 starts coming for that dude.
Terry (Teaneck): Jarrett, great chat man, thanks for going so long- I love all this Mets talk. What do you think happens to Luis Carpio next year? Paez and Woodmansee seem like Colombia MIF. You think Carpio goes to PSL. On the topic of Carpio, is he a first division regular? Does a strong first half next year put him on midseason top 100s?
Jarrett Seidler: Really have to see what the arm and fielding looks like coming back from the injury. Paternostro loved him to a disgusting level in Kingsport and would yell at me if I don't give him first division upside.
I suspect Carpio opens as Columbia's shortstop or second baseman. Woodmansee and Paez are the types of guys where they could get an early start on getting reps at other positions for a potential future utility home, or one of them could get bumped to PSL.
Allan (The Vault): What kind of trade Value does grandy have? Could we trade him, eat 1-3mil and get an OK prospect back?
Jarrett Seidler: I think that's in the ballpark. Granderson's owed $15 million next year, and for all the kvetching about his RBI, he's still been a league-average hitter adding some defensive value in a corner or able to fake CF. He'd probably beat 1 year/$12 million on the market, right?
Paul (NY): "Seth Lugo: Gm 1 NLDS starter"?
Jarrett Seidler: The NLDS starts on a Friday, which means that the Game 162 starter from Sunday can swing back on full rest. So they should be able to avoid that unless there's a Monday play-in game to the WCG.
He could more plausibly end up starting the Wild Card Game, though. You could have a scenario where Colon or Syndergaard starts Game 161 on Saturday, the other starts 162 on Sunday, and your option is Lugo or, say, Syndergaard on three days' rest for the first time in his career.
Frank (NY): I see you mentioned Devers. What else would have to be added to either side to make a Wheeler/Devers swap? Is it even remotely possible? I keep thinking the Mets should target him bc they need a 3B of the future, and RSox have no space
Jarrett Seidler: I don't think Wheeler, coming off a Tommy John rehab with extensive complications, has a whole lot of trade value right now. Nor do I think the Red Sox are worrying about where Devers is playing yet to the point of a sell-low. I mean, Devers could be their future 1B with Hanley at DH, Moncada could end up in the OF or at 1B himself, people could get hurt or traded, etc.
Gabe (Ohio): Best mets prospect that nobody is talking about?
Jarrett Seidler: I would've said Desmond Lindsay coming into the chat, but y'all sure did have a lot of Desmond Lindsay questions.
Marcos Molina has missed the entire year with TJS, but that's a special arm if healthy, and he could be healthy in 2017.
Ted (NJ): Spitballing off the top of your head - which 10 players would you have as the Mets top 10 now (forget specific order)?
Jarrett Seidler: Man, we do like dozens of hours of research and discussion to come up with these lists.
I'm pretty confident that Rosario, Szapucki, Smith, and Dunn will be on the list, though they might not be the top four. Then pick six from, in no order other than current assignment: Cecchini, Nimmo, Gsellman, Lugo, Becerra, Nido, Molina, Carpio, Ali Sanchez, Alonso, Gimenez, and five other guys I can't think of right now. There are still a heck of a lot of names in contention for a team top 10.
Amy (Wayne County): Is Thomas Nido a starting C?
Jarrett Seidler: He's definitely got a shot. Long way from PSL to the majors though.
fightingmoose (Manitoba, Canada): Since you're a Mets guy, is Marcos Molina a top 200 prospect? Seems pitchers who go through tommy john surgery get lost in the prospect ranks sometimes.
Jarrett Seidler: Geez, we haven't even sketched out the top 101 yet, let alone down to 200. I suspect he'd be somewhere on there, but I don't really know exactly what the level of the 200th best prospect is.
Florida Woman (Gainesville): Talk to me about Tim Tebow, future Mets star.
Jarrett Seidler: So while we were chatting, Adam Rubin of ESPN New York speculated that the Mets may be seriously interested in signing Tebow.
It'd sell some tickets for the minor league affiliates, and the Mets do own affiliates at levels he could plausibly play at in Port St. Lucie, Florida (not that far from Tebow Country) and Brooklyn.
brad (NJ): Do you watch "The Last Ship"? I just started getting into it. GREAT SHOW!!!! Up there with Walking Dead for best show on TV IMO.
Jarrett Seidler: I don't, though the Wikipedia article looks interesting.
Between baseball and other sports and life commitments, sometimes it feels like a miracle to watch the handful of TV shows I can actually fit in these days. Alan Sepinwall has commented that we're in an era where there's just too much good TV to watch, which is exacerbated by Netflix and Hulu and HBO GO and so on making the great shows from eras past just a click away.
Tommy Dreamer (The Arena): What is your favorite Souther Ocean County eatery?
Jarrett Seidler: I think there's a Surf Taco somewhere down there.
Kevin (NY): Who is the sixth best org in baseball
Jarrett Seidler: I believe the Blue Jays and Red Sox are currently tied for the sixth best record in baseball.
JP (CT): Sketch out a path to BARTOLO getting to 300 wins.
Jarrett Seidler: He'll end the season in the low-to-mid 230s. He's basically been averaging 14 per since his return. Could he plausibly keep doing this for five more years? Maybe a little bit worse but six? Moyer was effective through age 47, and we're only talking about Bart going a year or two more.
He's certainly said he's planning on retiring after next year, though.
fightingmoose (Manitoba, Canada): Will anybody be able to stop the Red Sox hitting machine of a lineup? Do you see Michael Kopech as more of a starting pitcher or reliever profile?
Jarrett Seidler: They've gotta get into the dance first, no?
I have no idea what to make of Kopech. Almost nobody has sustained this level of velocity as a starter, and there isn't a lot else there yet, but he's young and has some of the makings. To the level you care about them, there have been significant off-field incidents too. But if he sticks, man, that could be something special.
Alex (Long island): Who's a better catching prospect- Thomas Nido or Ali Sanchez. Is either a top 10 MLB C prospect?
Jarrett Seidler: Despite Nido's breakout season, I think the answer is still Ali Sanchez. You hear glowing, glowing things both externally and internally about Sanchez on both offense and defense.
I don't think either would crack a positional top 10, though again, I haven't yet sketched it out.
Rachel (Foxboro): Do you think Rafael Montero can be a successful MLB reliever?
Jarrett Seidler: Montero hasn't yet seen the velocity or command bump you'd hope for in relief. I've got no idea what he is moving forward at this point, honestly. He's the one guy that the Mets clearly haven't gotten everything out of.
andwoo (DC): Besides Gimenez and Guerrero, were there any other DSL names that you heard positive things about this year?
Jarrett Seidler: Raul Beracierta has had just a touch of hype, and there were like a half-dozen other guys that signed for six figures down there this year. I would caution that DSL statistics aren't the most meaningful and it isn't exactly the same competitive environment you'd get in full-season A-ball. Case in point: the Mets run 2 DSL teams and shuffle guys back and forth freely.
Dangerous Danny Davis (Parts Unknown): The West Wing, huh?
It's on my queue. Sell us on it.
Jarrett Seidler: We'll wrap up with the least baseball related question: The West Wing is my favorite television show ever. It has one of the best and deepest casts ever. The acting is great. The writing is great. The plotting is great. It presents an optimistic view of politics that we could all use these days. Watch it on Netflix ASAP.
I do a weeklyish West Wing rewatch podcast called The Crackpots and These Women with a bunch of friends who are also (mostly) baseball writers, which you can find on Twitter at @tcatwpodcast, or on iTunes and those sorts of places, if you're so inclined.
Jarrett Seidler: Thanks for the great questions everyone. To think, I was worried I wasn't going to get enough material to have a full chat!
If you somehow made it this far, you can follow me on Twitter @jaseidler for more thoughts on the Mets and MILB and whatever else. I'll also have my weekly column (on Robert Gsellman) up at BP Mets within the next day or so, a new prospect write-up in next week's Ten Pack, and Jeffrey and I should be back this weekend with another episode of our podcast For All You Kids Out There. Thanks again!
|
