Baseball Prospectus

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Statistics For All Levels

Plate Discipline

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 70)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	DRC+	Trend
1	78	Mike Greenwell	1990	121
2	78	Gary Sheffield	1995	170
3	78	Paul Waner	1929	125
4	77	Rusty Staub	1970	136
5	76	Nick Markakis	2010	114
6	76	Jason Heyward	2016	74
7	76	Mark Carreon	1990	122
8	75	Andrew McCutchen	2013	150
9	74	Yasiel Puig	2017	119
10	74	Allie Clark	1949	61
11	74	Floyd Robinson	1962	112
12	73	Al Kaline	1961	142
13	73	Don Mattingly	1987	143
14	73	Enos Slaughter	1942	133
15	73	Tony Gwynn	1986	122
16	72	Tim Raines	1986	128
17	72	Billy Butler	2012	137
18	72	Tommy Henrich	1939	99
19	72	Oscar Gamble	1976	111
20	72	Matt Murton	2008	62
21	72	Harry Rice	1928	105
22	71	Wally Joyner	1988	124
23	71	Rusty Greer	1995	111
24	71	Pablo Sandoval	2013	108
25	71	Christian Yelich	2018	143
26	71	Anthony Rendon	2016	115
27	71	Mike Hargrove	1976	128
28	71	Vladimir Guerrero	2001	134
29	71	Bill Madlock	1977	112
30	71	Lou Skizas	1958	97
31	71	George Brett	1979	140
32	71	Ron Blomberg	1975	104
33	70	Brian Giles	1997	122
34	70	Joe Cunningham	1958	136
35	70	Joe Mauer	2009	160
36	70	Roy Foster	1972	98
37	70	Troy Tulowitzki	2011	139
38	70	Grady Sizemore	2009	112
39	70	Freddie Lindstrom	1932	95
40	70	David Wright	2009	111
41	70	Babe Young	1942	115
42	70	Buster Posey	2013	120
43	70	Terry Crowley	1973	90
44	69	Frankie Frisch	1924	125
45	69	Andre Ethier	2008	125
46	69	Brian McCann	2010	126
47	69	Jack Clark	1982	147
48	69	Logan Morrison	2014	108
49	69	Carlos Quentin	2009	116
50	69	Wade Boggs	1984	120
51	69	Bill Sample	1981	108
52	69	Elijah Dukes	2010	0	DNP
53	69	Hank Aaron	1960	147
54	69	Dustin Pedroia	2010	128
55	69	Billy Williams	1964	146
56	68	Jody Gerut	2004	90
57	68	Anthony Rizzo	2016	139
58	68	Hanley Ramirez	2010	127
59	68	Carl Yastrzemski	1966	115
60	68	Mark Grace	1990	115
61	68	Conor Jackson	2008	117
62	68	Eddie Moore	1925	107
63	68	Kyle Seager	2014	126
64	68	Ryan Zimmerman	2011	111
65	68	Mickey Cochrane	1929	117
66	68	Russell Martin	2009	95
67	68	Roy White	1970	134
68	67	Eric Hosmer	2016	109
69	67	Ted Simmons	1976	116
70	67	Nomar Garciaparra	2000	153
71	67	Sal Bando	1970	131
72	67	Lou Boudreau	1944	128
73	67	J.D. Drew	2002	104
74	67	Joe Lefebvre	1982	71
75	67	Chipper Jones	1998	145
76	67	Alvin Davis	1987	124
77	67	Andy Pafko	1947	104
78	67	Don Baylor	1975	138
79	67	John Olerud	1995	116
80	67	Rickey Henderson	1985	159
81	67	Tony Oliva	1965	132
82	67	Ian Kinsler	2008	129
83	67	Freddie Freeman	2016	146
84	67	Gary Matthews	1977	111
85	67	Terry Puhl	1983	109
86	67	Kevin Seitzer	1988	119
87	66	Tom Tresh	1965	121
88	66	Todd Helton	2000	169
89	66	Chet Lemon	1981	134
90	66	Edwin Encarnacion	2009	96
91	66	Stephen Piscotty	2017	95
92	66	Frank Robinson	1962	172
93	66	Cesar Cedeno	1977	114
94	66	Joe Vosmik	1936	111
95	66	Barney McCosky	1943	0	DNP
96	66	Jeff Bagwell	1994	197
97	66	Len Dykstra	1989	88
98	66	Justin Upton	2014	127
99	66	John Valentin	1993	103
100	66	Minnie Minoso	1952	120

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2019		Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018		The only way Betts could’ve improved upon his 2016 season was by winning the AL MVP award. By that insane standard his 2017 season was a letdown, but by any conventional metric it was excellent. Once again, Betts excelled on the bases and in the field. FRAA pegs him as one of the very best defenders in the game, and given how effortlessly he plays Fenway’s notorious right field, it’s tough to disagree. Where Betts took a small step back was at the plate. His lower average seems to largely be a function of BABIP—he actually hit the ball harder than in 2016—but the power drop-off is harder to explain away. Still, Betts finished in the top 15 in baseball in BWARP, and he didn’t turn 25 until October. He is still very clearly the best player on the Red Sox and one of the best players in baseball, and the Win Dance Repeat movement he helped start is one of the game’s elite celebrations. Someone just needs to tell him that Salt Bae is a terrible meme.
2017		Ask someone what makes Betts special on a Monday and you may hear about his hit tool after he goes 3-for-4 with a walk. On Wednesday, they’ll marvel at his power and how he generates it with lightning-quick wrists. On Friday, you’ll hear about Betts’ glove, which truly shines in Fenway’s spacious right field. On Sunday, it will all be about his speed and efficiency on the bases. Ask Frank Thomas about Betts’ best tools, and he’ll smile, look you straight in the eyes and say “hardware.” It’s tough to blame him; Betts’ abilities defy explanation. He would’ve won the AL MVP if players named for fish were outlawed. He only just turned 24. We’re just getting started.
2016		Baseball isn't supposed to be this easy. Betts has gone from a breakout prospect in Greenville to a first-division starter in two years, and he appears to be on the cusp of something altogether more. The then-22-year-old almost joined the 20/20 club in his first full campaign, showing off more power than most thought he possessed. He displayed the skills needed to be a plus-plus defender in center, despite very little outfield experience. He also got better in the second half, demonstrating that he knows how to adjust, and he did all this with the quiet confidence and selective aggressiveness that define many of the game's best players. Rather than go a few months without dominating a sphere-hurling sport, Betts spent his offseason participating in the PBA's World Series of Bowling, proving that he's always hunting quality strikes. Whether you prefer Betts or Xander Bogaerts is a question of taste, but there's no doubt that this is what a franchise cornerstone looks like in today's game.
2015		There must be something Betts can't do on a baseball diamond—pitch, catch, groundskeeping—but he hasn't revealed his limitations yet. Betts was unfathomably good in Portland and Pawtucket in 2014, forcing his way to the big leagues despite starting the year with no experience above High-A. He hit for more power than he had previously shown, successfully stole bases at a high clip at every level and maintained his patient approach in the majors. Betts even handled a move from second base to center field, spent some time in right field, then without skipping a beat moved back to second base when Dustin Pedroia was injured. He is a potential franchise cornerstone because he has no weaknesses, and he plays with an understated swagger that tells you he knows how good he is. This is going to be a really, really fun career to watch.
2014		Betts began 2013 in a more-passive-than-patient funk, but once things clicked and he started swinging at the right offerings, all he did was hit. Following a promotion to High-A, Betts batted .341 with power and patience while striking out�wait for it�17 times in 211 plate appearances, or just 8 percent of the time. Did we mention he's just 20, and did this after a promotion? He was also successful on 90 percent of the 42 steals he attempted and played a quality keystone, all of which likely means he'll begin 2014 at Double-A in his age-21 season. The question is whether the 156-pound Betts continues to hit for power, but the bat speed is there thanks to his wrists, and his eye and approach are points in his favor.

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