Biographical

Portrait of Julio Urias

Julio Urias P  

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2019 Projections (Rest of Season Projections - seasonal age 22)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
69.0 3.23 1.29 77 5 3 0 1.2
Birth Date8-12-1996
Height6' 0"
Weight225 lbs
Age22 years, 9 months, 12 days
BatsL
ThrowsL
2015
1.72016
0.12017
0.12018
1.22019
proj
WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA..
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA- WARP
2016 LAN MLB 18 15 77.0 5 2 0 81 31 84 5 90 9.5 3.6 0.6 9.8 45% .358 1.45 3.20 3.39 91 3.42 75.7 1.7
2017 LAN MLB 5 5 23.3 0 2 0 23 14 11 1 90 8.9 5.4 0.4 4.2 43% .293 1.59 4.71 5.40 114 5.35 113.8 0.1
2018 LAN MLB 3 0 4.0 0 0 0 1 0 7 0 94 2.3 0.0 0.0 15.8 50% .167 0.25 -0.38 0.00 51 1.89 42.1 0.1
2019 LAN MLB 9 4 28.3 2 2 2 22 9 32 2 86 7.0 2.9 0.6 10.2 39% .270 1.09 3.03 3.18 90 3.42 73.3 0.6
CareerMLB3524132.7762127541348898.63.70.59.144%.3241.363.323.60943.7180.92.5

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg LG G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA-
2013 GRL A MID 18 18 54.3 2 0 0 44 16 67 5 94 7.3 2.7 0.8 11.1 54% .320 1.10 3.00 2.48 0 0.00 0.0
2014 RCU A+ CAL 25 20 87.7 2 2 0 60 37 109 4 91 6.2 3.8 0.4 11.2 46% .314 1.11 3.34 2.36 80 3.16 69.4
2015 RCU A+ CAL 1 1 4.7 0 0 0 7 0 4 1 101 13.5 0.0 1.9 7.7 29% .375 1.50 4.85 7.71 107 3.55 80.0
2015 TUL AA TEX 13 13 68.3 3 4 0 53 15 74 4 94 7.0 2.0 0.5 9.7 47% .282 1.00 2.59 2.77 77 2.60 56.2
2015 OKL AAA PCL 2 2 4.3 0 1 0 11 6 5 0 90 22.8 12.5 0.0 10.4 42% .579 3.92 5.44 18.69 120 4.07 87.6
2015 DOD Rk AZL 2 2 3.0 0 0 0 2 1 5 0 98 6.0 3.0 0.0 15.0 100% .400 1.00 1.47 0.00 54 0.74 17.2
2016 LAN MLB NL 18 15 77.0 5 2 0 81 31 84 5 90 9.5 3.6 0.6 9.8 45% .358 1.45 3.20 3.39 91 3.42 75.7
2016 OKL AAA PCL 11 7 45.0 5 1 0 31 8 49 2 104 6.2 1.6 0.4 9.8 54% .269 0.87 2.72 1.40 68 2.66 58.3
2017 LAN MLB NL 5 5 23.3 0 2 0 23 14 11 1 90 8.9 5.4 0.4 4.2 43% .293 1.59 4.71 5.40 114 5.35 113.8
2017 OKL AAA PCL 6 6 31.3 3 0 0 20 15 32 1 96 5.7 4.3 0.3 9.2 47% .253 1.12 3.52 2.59 81 2.97 62.5
2018 LAN MLB NL 3 0 4.0 0 0 0 1 0 7 0 94 2.3 0.0 0.0 15.8 50% .167 0.25 -0.38 0.00 51 1.89 42.1
2018 RCU A+ CAL 4 4 7.3 0 0 0 6 4 13 3 109 7.4 4.9 3.7 16.0 46% .300 1.36 7.57 4.91 81 3.36 67.2
2018 OKL AAA PCL 2 0 1.0 0 0 0 2 3 0 0 18.0 27.0 0.0 0.0 40% .400 5.00 12.74 18.00 100 3.03 65.1
2018 DOD Rk AZL 2 2 3.3 0 0 0 2 0 6 0 87 5.4 0.0 0.0 16.2 83% .333 0.60 0.47 2.70 61 1.34 28.9
2019 LAN MLB NL 9 4 28.3 2 2 2 22 9 32 2 86 7.0 2.9 0.6 10.2 39% .270 1.09 3.03 3.18 90 3.42 73.3

Plate Discipline

YEAR Pits Zone% Swing% Contact% Z-Swing% O-Swing% Z-Contact% O-Contact% SwStr%
2016 1414 0.4908 0.4441 0.7373 0.6182 0.2764 0.7995 0.6030 0.2627
2017 414 0.4541 0.4493 0.7742 0.6383 0.2920 0.8000 0.7273 0.2258
2018 58 0.5862 0.5690 0.6061 0.6765 0.4167 0.6957 0.4000 0.3939
2019 464 0.4935 0.4914 0.7105 0.6987 0.2894 0.8000 0.5000 0.2895
Career23500.48720.45740.73530.63910.28520.79710.59960.2647

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2019 LAN $565,000
2018 LAN $550,000
2017 LAN $540,000
2016 LAN $
YearsDescriptionSalary
2 yrPrevious$1,090,000
2019Current$565,000
3 yrPvs + Cur$1,655,000
3 yrTotal$1,655,000

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
1 y 122 dBoras Corp.1 year/$565,000 (2019)

Details
  • 1 year/$565,000 (2019). Re-signed by LA Dodgers 3/19. Placed on restricted list 5/14/19 (arrest). Reinstated 5/21/19.
  • 1 year/$0.55M (2018). Re-signed by LA Dodgers 3/18.
  • 1 year/$0.54M (2017). Re-signed by LA Dodgers 3/17.
  • 1 year (2016). Contract selected by LA Dodgers 5/27/16.
  • Signed by LA Dodgers 8/17/12 as a free agent from Mexico.

2019 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA DRA VORP WARP
90o 5.2 2.8 0 24 11 88.0 60 31 99 5 .256 1.03 2.23 2.46 18.8 2.0
80o 5.1 2.9 0 24 11 81.3 60 31 91 5 .272 1.11 2.57 2.83 16.1 1.8
70o 5 3.1 0 24 11 76.5 60 30 86 5 .283 1.18 2.81 3.1 14.2 1.5
60o 5 3.2 0 24 11 72.5 59 30 81 5 .292 1.23 3.03 3.34 12.4 1.4
50o 4.9 3.3 0 24 11 68.9 59 30 77 5 .301 1.29 3.23 3.56 10.8 1.2
40o 4.8 3.4 0 24 11 65.3 58 30 73 5 .310 1.34 3.43 3.79 9.1 1.0
30o 4.7 3.6 0 24 11 61.6 57 29 69 5 .320 1.41 3.66 4.03 7.4 0.8
20o 4.6 3.7 0 24 11 57.4 56 29 64 5 .331 1.48 3.92 4.32 5.3 0.6
10o 4.5 3.9 0 24 11 51.6 54 28 58 5 .347 1.59 4.30 4.74 2.2 0.2
Weighted Mean4.93.30241168.45829775.2991.273.203.5311.01.2

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA DRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
20202310706523187139732191244.3031.133.043.406.73.510.50.63.3
20212410706423186139722171244.3051.143.073.436.73.510.50.63.2
2022259705721162123651911144.3091.163.153.526.83.610.60.62.7
2023268605420152112611811144.3041.143.093.466.63.610.70.72.7
2024278605620158120621881144.3081.153.093.466.83.510.70.62.8
2025288605420153117571811144.3111.143.053.416.93.410.70.62.8
2026298605018140108521641144.3091.143.173.546.93.310.50.72.4
202730750451612697481471044.3061.153.193.576.93.410.50.72.1
20283165041151158945133944.3071.173.293.687.03.510.40.71.8

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 65)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 79 Lance McCullers Jr. 2016 3.22
2 76 Brett Cecil 2009 5.69
3 75 Brett Anderson 2010 3.28
4 74 Madison Bumgarner 2012 3.76
5 73 Clayton Kershaw 2010 3.22
6 73 Carlos Martinez 2014 4.13
7 72 Jenrry Mejia 2012 5.63
8 71 Noah Syndergaard 2015 3.60
9 71 Phil Hughes 2008 6.88
10 71 Tyler Skaggs 2014 4.70
11 71 Michael Wacha 2014 3.45
12 70 Patrick Corbin 2012 4.71
13 69 Franklin Morales 2008 6.39
14 69 Luis Severino 2016 6.08
15 69 Giovanni Soto 2013 0.00 DNP
16 68 Clayton Blackburn 2015 0.00 DNP
17 68 Francis Martes 2018 0.00 DNP
18 68 Cody Buckel 2014 0.00 DNP
19 68 Mike Montgomery 2012 0.00 DNP
20 68 Alex Reyes 2017 0.00 DNP
21 67 Jacob Turner 2013 4.19
22 67 Jose Berrios 2016 8.49
23 67 Henry Owens 2015 5.00
24 67 Jack Flaherty 2018 3.46
25 67 Trevor Bauer 2013 5.82
26 66 Allen Webster 2012 0.00 DNP
27 66 Arodys Vizcaino 2013 0.00 DNP
28 66 Yohander Mendez 2017 6.57
29 66 Erasmo Ramirez 2012 3.97
30 66 Taijuan Walker 2015 4.88
31 65 Yovani Gallardo 2008 1.88
32 65 Scott Kazmir 2006 3.67
33 65 Joel Zumaya 2007 4.28
34 65 Chris Volstad 2009 5.66
35 65 Jhoulys Chacin 2010 4.19
36 65 Chad Billingsley 2007 3.43
37 65 Michael Kopech 2018 5.02
38 64 Shelby Miller 2013 3.38
39 64 Alex Sanabia 2011 3.27
40 64 Chance Adams 2017 0.00 DNP
41 64 Francisco Liriano 2006 2.31
42 64 Waite Hoyt 1922 4.25
43 64 Trevor Cahill 2010 3.34
44 63 Michael Pineda 2011 4.00
45 63 Neftali Feliz 2010 2.73
46 63 Lucas Giolito 2017 2.78
47 63 Bob Moose 1970 4.18
48 63 Jaime Garcia 2009 0.00 DNP
49 63 Jonathan Broxton 2006 2.95
50 63 Nick Kingham 2014 0.00 DNP
51 63 Matt Cain 2007 3.78
52 63 Zach Davies 2015 3.71
53 63 Josh Hader 2016 0.00 DNP
54 63 Drew Hutchison 2013 0.00 DNP
55 63 Juan Oramas 2012 0.00 DNP
56 63 Tyler Glasnow 2016 5.01
57 62 Danny Duffy 2011 5.64
58 62 Rick Porcello 2011 5.09
59 62 Boone Whiting 2012 0.00 DNP
60 62 Felix Hernandez 2008 3.81
61 62 Jordan Swagerty 2012 0.00 DNP
62 62 Daniel Norris 2015 4.65
63 62 Moe Drabowsky 1958 5.23
64 62 Jay Jackson 2010 0.00 DNP
65 62 Mat Latos 2010 3.07
66 62 Jesse Biddle 2014 0.00 DNP
67 62 Henderson Alvarez III 2012 5.28
68 62 Alex White 2011 7.36
69 62 Gerrit Cole 2013 3.30
70 62 Manny Banuelos 2013 0.00 DNP
71 62 Robbie Erlin 2013 4.28
72 61 Jose Fernandez 2015 2.92
73 61 Tommy Hunter 2009 4.42
74 61 Trey McNutt 2012 0.00 DNP
75 61 Miguel Castro 2017 3.93
76 61 Keyvius Sampson 2013 0.00 DNP
77 61 Kyle Zimmer 2014 0.00 DNP
78 61 Dana Eveland 2006 8.13
79 61 Nick Tropeano 2013 0.00 DNP
80 61 Bob Miller 1961 4.96
81 61 Jake Buchanan 2012 0.00 DNP
82 61 Grant Holmes 2018 0.00 DNP
83 61 Jameson Taillon 2014 0.00 DNP
84 61 Matt Wisler 2015 4.87
85 60 Aaron Poreda 2009 2.70
86 60 Scott Barnes 2010 0.00 DNP
87 60 Casey Kelly 2012 7.14
88 60 Jon Niese 2009 4.21
89 60 Aaron Sanchez 2015 3.41
90 60 Derek Holland 2009 6.38
91 60 Jordan Walden 2010 2.35
92 59 Bill Stafford 1962 4.01 DNP
93 59 Carl Edwards Jr. 2014 0.00 DNP
94 59 A.J. Cole 2014 0.00 DNP
95 59 Jake McGee 2009 0.00 DNP
96 59 Vin Mazzaro 2009 6.01
97 59 Terry Forster 1974 3.95
98 59 Zack Britton 2010 0.00 DNP
99 59 Zack Wheeler 2012 0.00 DNP
100 59 Ian Krol 2013 3.95

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2019  Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018 There isn't much in the game that depresses the soul more than a young player of immense talent and unbridled potential blowing out before he finds his bearings at the big-league level. Unfortunately, so it went for the left-handed wunderkind, who tore the anterior capsule of his throwing shoulder on a June 10 pitch and went under the knife the following month for a procedure that will likely keep him out of vigorous competition until 2019. It was a devastating and ironic blow for a player whose pitch stress was monitored so acutely throughout his rapid summit of the system. The Dodgers said all the right things about the success of his surgery, but the realistic outcome of such operations remains a glaring unknown. The club will cross its fingers and hope a World Series run and extreme youth will prove a potent enough salve to keep the kid's spirits up until he can start chucking it again in the late summer months of 2018.
2017 Mound so empty, need a centerpiece 20-year-old pitcher and a young lefty Cut minor leaguers down with backdoor freezes Then he’d clear em with his heat, kid is still a baby You talking curveballs, it’s 70 grade You talking stats, check his DRA Switch up his style, he'll throw any pitch Try and touch his change n' he'll make you whiff Look what he's done He's another lefty star boy Look what he's done He's another lefty star boy Tell a hitta "go sit" Legend of July 2012, he's well rested Took a little time, with a stint in the Cal League Now he's in the bigs and the team's lookin savvy Still cannot throw a complete season Might not matter if he's the one 200 innings pitched we can hope to god We don't pray for WARs, we just pray for stars Look what he's done He's another lefty star boy Look what he's done He's another lefty star boy
2016 Torii Hunter was drafted before Urias was born. There, we've now fulfilled our “Urias is young” reference quota, but it's time to stop thinking of him primarily in terms of his age. In a way, all of the “it's amazing what Urias is doing at X level as a Y-year-old” comments undersell how good he's been, especially last season. Urias took some planned time off after midseason cosmetic eye surgery but was flat-out dominant when on the mound, striking out 28 percent of all batters he faced in Tulsa. With three plus pitches, universal respect for his feel for pitching and a tiny bit of projection left in his 19-year-old body, Urias is as close to perfect as a pitching prospect can get; all that's really left for him is to build his innings count. A 2016 debut is a distinct possibility, as is immediate success as at least a mid-rotation arm.
2015 Urias is left-handed, Mexican, a Dodger and might debut while he's still a teenager. Therefore, we are legally, ethically, morally and magically bound to say the name "Fernando." There, we said it. Urias has the pure stuff to be more than a brief, bright flash, with a fastball into the mid-90s and two off-speed pitches that are at least average. He is also, perhaps more importantly, praised for his poise, a quality that will be tested soon, whether in the high minors or the majors, when Urias starts dealing with the best hitters in the world. Nobody is good enough not to have bad stretches, not even the youngest pitcher ever to pitch in the Futures Game.
2014 When some of us were 16 years old, we were sneaking out to drive dad's car, trying to crash a college party. Julio Urias was striking out college-aged hitters and making enough money to buy his dad a car. An international free agent out of Mexico, Urias was given an unthinkable assignment to the Midwest League; he's younger than most high school juniors. More unthinkable: he thrived. The southpaw showed considerable growth throughout the year, raising the bar of his listed height and adding fuel to his fastball. Urias entered the season with velocity reports in the upper 80s, was sitting 91-93 and touching 95 by summer, and spiked to 97 in his final game of the season. The remarkable story of Julio Urias might just earn him the label of the most interesting man in the sport, though if he's ever caught drinking a Dos Equis he's so grounded.

BP Articles

Click here to see articles tagged with Julio Urias

BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2019-05-06 23:45:00 (link to chat)It's early, but if Luis Robert just keeps hitting like this in Double-A too when does he make it to the majors? It feels odd to gauge a player with his tools and pro experience, but with so few reps in the last couple of years.
(nschaef from NYC)
Why, glad you asked, we just 10 Packed him today! https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/49523/monday-morning-ten-pack-may-6-2019/

I am HERE for Julio Urias against Acuna in a 9th inning Save situation. The future is now. (Wilson Karaman)
2019-05-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)Do you even want to hazard a take on the Julio Urías debacle, or leave it to others? If so, do you believe there is a path back to him playing for the Dodgers, let alone a path that creates a safe path forward for the victim of his alleged actions? Chad Moriyama had a few good thoughts on it in this thread on twitter: https://twitter.com/ChadMoriyama/status/1128547148247650304 Guess I'm just trying to grapple with my uncomfortable feeling of being worried about how badly the Dodgers might mangle this situation.
(mevans93308 from California)
Sure, I think we should all be up front in addressing these as best we can, but I will also acknowledge that while I endeavor to educate myself in these areas as best I can, there is always always more I can learn and I am more than receptive to additional POVs that can help me grow in understanding these situations.

I think there is a path to him coming back, but it involves Julio Urias actually addressing the issues at hand. It involves him understanding what he's done and why it happens, and the situation it puts both him and the women he's involved with, in. Part of the problem with Addison Russell's return has been that he's never really acknowledged what he's done or shown any remorse except for the difficulty it has cause _him_ personally. There's been no ownership of his behavior and the damage he's caused others and how his stress levels at the time or whatever he might claim aren't exculpatory in any way. Julio Urias needs to own his actions and the repercussions they've caused and work to make sure he never enacts them or anything like them again, even when he's frustrated or under stress or anything else. Once that work and understanding is visible to those around him and hopefully the public, then there's a path forward.

The hard part is that we have to take the words of the org in terms of "those around him" and orgs don't really get the benefit of the doubt on these issues anymore because they haven't earned it. (Craig Goldstein)
2019-03-14 15:00:00 (link to chat)Both Julio Urias & Alex Reyes can be considered important RP’s in fantasy land right? With both possibly starting as the season progresses? You’d figure solid WHIP/ERA/K9 await anyone who owns them
(Youth served from CA)
You certainly would think, barring injury. (Nathan Bishop)
2019-03-11 16:00:00 (link to chat)Why can’t we have nice things? Julio Urias should be in the Dodgers starting rotation?
(Chi-town from Illinois)
The Dodgers have so many great options and they'll keep doing what they've been doing the last few years, which is to be careful with all of them. Urias might have had the most cautious treatment of all so I wouldn't count on a lot of innings, but I do expect them to be very good, as I do for virtually all of their starters. (Darius Austin)
2018-09-10 14:00:00 (link to chat)Julio Urias was just called up by the Dodgers. Will he pitch meaningful innings for them the rest of the way?
(Bojangles Horséfly III from Parts Unknown)
The Dodgers will probably do what they've always done with Urias, which is treat him incredibly cautiously. He'll get some bullpen innings and if the early appearances go well, I wouldn't be surprised if he gets used in a big spot or two. (Darius Austin)
2018-01-23 23:00:00 (link to chat)In a 15 team league with 30+ rounds (4 years to keep) would you draft Julio Urias about where you might have drafted Alex Reyes in 2017...later? earlier?
(Chris from Baltimore)
Urias is an exceedingly difficult player to value right now. It's very likely he misses the vast majority if not all of 2018, and while his youth is an asset for recovery purposes, his injury is a scary one in terms of regaining full functionality and effectiveness. I don't really have context for where Reyes was getting drafted after news of his injury broke, and it's tough to say where in the context of your draft is appropriate without knowing more about how many people in total are kept, etc. But broadly I'd peg him about 2 rounds earlier than I'd be looking at a standard-issue injury stash, just because the ceiling is still ostensibly there. Just know that he's a LONG play - this year's likely a full donut, and you'll be lucky if he generates positive value in 2019, either.

Take it back, sister. I've loved this tune since I heard it on my grandma's hi-fi: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvD0iVr-0JQ (Wilson Karaman)
2017-08-16 13:00:00 (link to chat)Mark, Dodgers have a crowded starting rotation. Is Buehler going to be part of the rotation next season?
(Cal Guy from Cal)
I wouldn't be surprised to see Buehler make his debut out of the pen this season for the Dodgers. I think the rotational depth they have will likely just make it easier for them to be super careful with him next year, although that didn't end up helping with Julio Urias :(

I don't see him making an impact out of the rotation next year, but he could see a start here and there. (Mark Barry)
2017-05-15 17:00:00 (link to chat)If Julio Urias was still prospect eligible would you have him as your #1 pitching prospect? If not, who would be your top 3 pitchers in MiLB?
(Clown from Outside your window)
Without a doubt. (Mike Gianella)
2017-03-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)2017 Anderson Espinoza or 2015 Julio Urias?
(Alex from CA)
I've never been quite as high on Urias' upside at least as others, but pretty easily him. (Jeffrey Paternostro)
2017-02-06 23:00:00 (link to chat)Who has the better 2017, Julio Urias or Alex Reyes?
(seddrah from Seattle)
Gimme Urias. What this kid has done/will do at such a tender age is absurd. I think the command and game management will both be more advanced in 2017, and I think Reyes may struggle some at the outset of his career as he refines his own command and gains greater consistency in his delivery. These are two of the most wonderful arms in the entire world. (Wilson Karaman)
2017-02-21 13:00:00 (link to chat)Pitching sleepers/breakouts for this year? If possible, geared to points leagues?
(chrispetersen15 from IA)
I'll give you a few deeper late-round mixed options: Garrett Richards, Robert Gsellman, Jharel Cotton and Zach Davies.
As far as "breakouts" go that's a broad term. Starters that I like better than the consensus: Julio Urias, Marcus Stroman, Jon Gray, James Paxton (is so obvious it's painful), and Frankie Liriano. I'm probably forgetting someone...Oh. Draft Rich Hill... (George Bissell)
2017-02-16 20:00:00 (link to chat)What to make of the Alex Reyes TJS? Are the Cards cooked?
(Marty from tampa)
It'll definitely be a harder road for the Cardinals now, but this stuff happens. There's been no proven mechanical or physical factors that contribute towards Tommy John, other than the sheer fact that pitchers throw baseballs very hard. It's part of the risk calculus, and sometimes the talent outweighs that.

I will say that the year I saw Alex Reyes in Double-A was also the year I saw Julio Urias, and I walked away thinking that Reyes was the better prospect. If you'd told me I could trade highly-rated prospect x, y, z for him, I probably would have. I hope for all of baseball that he comes back with his stuff intact, because baseball's better with a talent like Reyes. (Kate Morrison)
2017-02-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)Julio Urias or Steven Matz? 2017 and going forward
(Rex from Chicago)
I actually made this exact trade in my dynasty league last year, selling Urias for Matz in order to make a push for 2016. (It worked, just barely.) There's a lot of uncertainty surrounding both, but I think as a team I think I take Matz in the short term, who's been more hurt but has also had more playing time in which to be hurt. In the long term, your guess is sadly as good as mine. The odds say they probably both get badly hurt. Sorry. (Patrick Dubuque)
2016-12-01 19:00:00 (link to chat)Does Julio Urias really have Ace upside in fantasy?
(Tom from Wyoming)
He has the upside to be sure. But very few get there. (Mike Gianella)
2016-12-05 20:00:00 (link to chat)Help me settle an argument I have with my husband, who makes a bigger impact to the Dodgers over the next three seasons, Jose De Leon or Julio Urias? Do both have have 200k a year stuff?
(Tammy from Cali)
This will be in my column tomorrow, but only 15 starters struck out 200 or more batters last year. That number has never been higher than 18 in a single-season over the last decade. Nobody does it anymore. To settle the argument, it's Urias. I have serious reservations about De Leon. He's older, the command isn't great, he doesn't have premium fastball velocity (92 mph last year), and he's right-handed. Look, I'm biased. Urias is probably my favorite pitcher in the game. I'm fascinated by him. The velocity is effortless, his curve is nasty and he has the best (possibly illegal) pickoff move we've seen in awhile. He's just special. (George Bissell)
2016-09-08 19:00:00 (link to chat)Just curious as of now who is your favorite player and why? Do you suggest always having him on your fantasy baseball team ?
(Wally from FL)
That's an extremely difficult question. It's a tie between Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez among hitters right now. Julio Urias or Marcus Stroman among pitchers. I'll go with someone a bit more obscure for the purposes of this question. The pitcher that I think about on a daily basis is Ben Rowen. He's a submarine pitcher that's now with the Brewers. He's fascinating to me. The other two obscure pitchers I'm obsessed with are Eddie Gamboa, a 31-year-old knuckleballer with the Rays and Robby Scott, a Red Sox lefty who throws from different arm slots to right and left handed batters. It's surreal. (George Bissell)
2016-09-23 12:30:00 (link to chat) What are your thoughts on Julio Urias for next year. Innings, whip, era. Will he begin the year in the starting rotation?
(Dandies3 from Pa)
I think he'll be good, but more than that, I'm sort of struck by how quickly Urias got Not That Young. He's still young! But he's 20, which is an age baseball players sometimes are. I remember somebody (I think Adam Davidson) saying on a podcast that having kids is a way that grownups have of tracking the passage of time; you don't notice yourself going from 40 to 45, but you notice your kid going from 5 to 10, and by noticing you keep perspective on your life and what you're doing with it. Urias is what I think of as the sundial of my career here at BP. When I got here, he wasn't somebody we'd ever heard of. Then he became one of the all-time great "can you believe how young this guy is" fun facts. Now he's 20. Time passed. (Sam Miller)
2016-07-05 19:00:00 (link to chat)Anderson Espinoza - #1 Pitching Prospect in 2018?
(Sam from TX)
This kind of question is really frustrating - he could be! He couldn't be! It's two years down the line and if I had a crystal ball, I'd be making a heck of a lot more money.

Really, though, while TINSTAPP is overblown these days, some small part of it rings true. He's the highest ranked pitcher that should still be eligible in 2018...but you never know. It's a long way from 18 in low-A to the major leagues (Julio Urias aside). (Kate Morrison)
2016-06-15 20:00:00 (link to chat)What type of pitcher does Julio Urias become? Does he really have ace potential? 200k a year kinda guy in the future?
(Kyle from FL)
Yes he does. He's 19, when you break away from 19 being just a number think about what you were doing at 19. He was in the MWL when he was 16, which is utterly insane. He has ace potential, and the Dodgers are doing that they believe is the best way to build him up. His stuff is too good to not be considered ace level, it is just a matter of building up the innings to get to that point. (Grant Jones)
2016-06-16 21:00:00 (link to chat)Contreras called up, I just traded Buster Posey for Julio Urias in my dynasty league. Did I jump the gun? Prospects carry crazy value in my league.
(Greg from Toledo)
You absolutely jumped the gun. Sorry. (Bret Sayre)
2016-04-12 18:00:00 (link to chat)Higher ceiling, floor, and who would you take: 18 year old Julio Urias or 18 year old Anderson Espinoza?
(Alex from CA)
I gotta go Urias on all three. Love Espinoza, but Urias a slightly different level. That's the first negative thing I've ever said about Anderson Espinoza and I'm heartbroken. (Christopher Crawford)
2016-03-09 19:00:00 (link to chat)Please rank: Giolito, Urias, Snell, Manaea, A. Espinoza. Who will be up first? Thanks.
(CJ from OAK)
For just this year I'd go Lucas Giolito, Blake Snell, Julio Urias, Manaea and Espinoza. My guess is Snell is up first. (Mike Gianella)
2016-02-23 13:00:00 (link to chat)How does Anderson Espinoza now compare to Julio Urias 2 years ago?
(Alex from Austin)
Probably has a nicer iPhone. (Matthew Trueblood)
2016-01-29 11:00:00 (link to chat)I know you mentioned "difference between reasonable minds", but I have to ask about your thoughts on Julio Urias and Steven Matz. Which one do you like more?
(Matt from Fresno, CA)
My list had Urias higher but I found the argument for Matz extremely convincing. (Top 101 Chat with Craig Goldstein)
2016-01-14 20:00:00 (link to chat)Working to ID 12 Keepers in 5x5. Last pitching slot comes down to 2 rookies, Giolito or Urias. Whomever I choice I can keep for 2 years without penalty except use up 1 roster spot...Thanks
(Littleron from WV)
If it's only two years I want Lucas Giolito, even though I think Julio Urias has the higher ceiling and would be the play in dynasty. (Mike Gianella)
2015-11-18 13:00:00 (link to chat)Have you heard anything about Julio Urias since the end of last season, when he had several bad starts in a row? I haven't heard anything, so just hoping there was no injury there. And when do you think we'll see him called up?
(Albertkly from New York)
No injury as far as I know, just struggled in arguably the toughest league for young pitchers to pitch in. I think he helps the Dodgers in 2016, joins the rotation in 2017. (Christopher Crawford)
2015-10-22 14:00:00 (link to chat)What are your thoughts on Lucas Giolitto and Julio Urias?
(James from New Jersey)
Hey, those are some sexy pitching prospects! I don't know. Have only seen Giolito live, and then only briefly, in the 2014 Futures Game. They look like the two best pitching prospects in baseball. I'd prefer Urias, for whatever that's worth to you. (Matthew Trueblood)
2015-09-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)Long term who do you think has more upside as a starter in the majors Lucas Giolitto or Julio Urias?
(Mike from Flordia)
Both have high ceilings, Giolito's is probably a little higher. If you're asking who I would feel more confident in achieving that upside it's Giolito. Urias is so unusual that I haven't a clue how his career is going to play out. (R.J. Anderson)
2015-09-21 20:30:00 (link to chat)Which breakout specs are you ... selling?
(majortom from space)
Do they have to be breakout specs? Guys I'd be testing the waters on, who are generally regarded as high-end fantasy prospects, are Julio Urias, Tyler Glasnow, and Hunter Harvey (if you can get anything for him at this point). I'd sell almost any breakout spec if people are too amped up on them (like Robles). (Bret Sayre)
2015-08-13 20:00:00 (link to chat)Greg, in that same league would you rather have $25 Chris Archer and $3 Gibson or $6 Julio Urias and $1 Alex Bregman?
(Matthew from Twin Cities)
Archer side. I like Urias and Bregan both but always go for the established major leaguers unless it's cost prohibitive. (Greg Wellemeyer)
2015-07-06 13:00:00 (link to chat)JP Crawford - the number 1 prospect to start next season?
(Jeremy from Philly)
Lucas Giolito isn't getting promoted anytime soon. Neither is Julio Urias. (Jeff Moore)
2015-06-15 19:00:00 (link to chat)Would the Dodgers trade Julio Urias or Cory Seager for Hamels?
(Benny from Franklintown)
No. (Brendan Gawlowski)
2015-05-26 19:00:00 (link to chat)Is there another MiLB ace-in-waiting, beyond Giolito?
(Ron from Texarkana)
Julio Urias if he shows the endurance and Dylan Bundy if he can ever stay healthy. That's pretty much it; ace is such a tough thing to project. Some other "aces" will certainly emerge from the minors, but trying to figure it out based on the numbers/scouting is a guessing game. (Mike Gianella)
2015-05-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)In my Yahoo league I am building for next year and thereafter. My roster is Russell Martin, Kendrys Morales, Josh Harrison, Brock Holt, Brett Gardner, Dexter Fowler, Gregory Polanco, Coco Crisp, Carlos Ruiz, Travis Snider, Kyle (and Corey) Seager, Jason Heyward, Carlos Correa, Desmond Jennings, Javier Baez, Matt Harvey, Carlos Martinez, Jimmy Nelson, Edinson Volquez, Jonathan Paplebon, Chris Heston, Noah Syndergaard, Lucas Giolito, Julio Urias, Jose Berrios, Matt Cain and Sean Doolittle. 8 keepers allowed. Comments? Suggestions?
(TimLandry from Montreal Quebec Canada)
Keep Matt Harvey eight times. (Christopher Crawford)
2015-05-05 15:00:00 (link to chat)Hi Nick, Are there any pitchers in the minors who project to be true #1 starters?
(Cal Guy from Cal)
Hi, sure there are. Lucas Giolito and Dylan Bundy are easy choices and I'd also include Julio Urias from the Dodgers system, though some people might disagree with me there. (Nick Shlain)
2015-04-29 20:00:00 (link to chat)Some prospects like trout, harper Jose Fernandez and Kris Bryant spoil us to the fact that most players are on a more regular trajectory which includes an adjustment period. Which players in the minor leagues may be headed towards immediate fantasy stardom. Specifically interested in Carlos correa and Julio urias and their chances to be big time contributors early.
(prospies from usa)
I could see Corey Seager and Julio Urias playing at pretty high levels immediately. (Bret Sayre)
2015-04-07 14:00:00 (link to chat)How do you feel about Julio Urias's future? A potential ace?
(Dennis from LA)
I am big on Urias, but honestly the range of possible outcomes is all over the place. He made major adjustments last season, both physically and mechanically, and his addition of power both raised the roof of his upside and simultaneously lengthened his development track. I don't expect to see him in the bigs until late 2016, and he could undergo major changes before that happens. (Doug Thorburn)
2015-02-18 19:00:00 (link to chat)"Molly Knight ‏@molly_knight 5m5 minutes ago I wonder if this Jansen news is the first domino to fall that propels Julio Urias to the bullpen this summer." What do you think?
(Jason from Malibu)
I'd like to see Urias throw more innings next season. Not that he couldn't handle big league hitters out of the bullpen, but I imagine the Dodgers would prefer to stretch him out this year. (Brendan Gawlowski)
2014-12-11 18:00:00 (link to chat)Julio Urias still seems to be climbing the prospect rankings but everyone always notes that he doesn't have much projection left. What's that mean and why not pop a precocious 18-year old in the rotation to avoid 'wasting' his bullets in the minors if he already is what he is?
(Brad from Colorado)
Urias is a challenge for me. I agree that there's not a lot of projection left. Without that projection, and with just some polishing steps left, that suggests whatever role you project for him is a role he could essentially fill in the big leagues right this minute. I don't see a top of the rotation arm when I superimpose him on big league lineups, but I do see a really good #3 and possibly a #2; that's a helluva player. With someone like Urias, I typically end up the low man on the totem pole, just like I have been with Dylan Bundy in the past. This is one area of my own known bias that I continually evaluate and Urias -- if he dominates and shoves his way to the front of the rotation -- may be the guy that really convinces me to start coming off this stance. (Mark Anderson)
2014-11-04 18:00:00 (link to chat)Zachary Bird snuck into the top 10 in 2013. The Dodgers have had a boost to their farm system since then. He had a strong finish to the 2014 season with a reported spike in velo into the upper 90s. Does he ever break into the Dodgers rotation?
(Donovan from Socal)
Bird is going to be an interesting case. I'm liked what I heard toward the end of the season and there is certainly major league potential in the arm, but he's still a ways away for me. Outside of Julio Urias, it's not as though the Dodgers are flush with top-flight arms that project to stay in the starting rotation, so he may get ample opportunity to prove himself capable and get a true shot. (Mark Anderson)
2014-10-31 13:00:00 (link to chat)Be honest: Will Julio Urias be a starter in the majors by the time he's 20? 19?
(vegetto712 from Orlando)
Yes, probably. Urias is not a highly projectable prospect. He's advanced for his age. It's the same aspect that we talk about with Michael De Leon. There is not a lot of growth left, so why waste bullets at the lower levels? Sure, you can always learn on the mental side, but that can also be learned anywhere if the tools are ready. (Tucker Blair)
2014-10-23 14:00:00 (link to chat)I keep hearing Julio Urias doesn't have much projection left in him. Recognizing he hasn't faced serious bats yet, would you waste more than a half season of bullets in AA if you were Friedman? What's left to work on?
(ted from Chicago)
It has to do with the fact that Urias is already strong in areas where most young pitchers have holes - such as his mechanical repetition, change-up maturity, and ability to hold runners. But the kid is still growing, still adding velocity, and still refining his craft. It's all relative, but I think that Urias needs to learn how his repertoire evolves against more advanced hitters while at the same time honing the physical aspects of his development. (Doug Thorburn)
2014-07-28 19:00:00 (link to chat)How come every picture I see of Julio Urias his left eye is close?
(scott from az)
Because you're wearing an eyepatch. (Matt Sussman)
2014-07-22 15:00:00 (link to chat)Dahl ? Future? Also does giolito deserve to be best pitching prospect?
(joe from navy)
Dahl could be a five tool contributor at the big league level. Really good head on his shoulders. Eager to learn. No makeup concerns whatsoever. He's a guy who can impact the game in a lot of ways, and should be a first division big leaguer.

Giolito has the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the minor leagues. I'm cool with him as the best P prospect, but I'd actually argue it's Julio Urias. (Jordan Gorosh)
2014-07-01 13:00:00 (link to chat)What are your thoughts on Tony Kemp? He's been great and was impressive when I saw him against Julio Urias in May. First-division 2B potential?
(Dustin Nosler from Stockton, Calif.)
Tony Kemp can hit. Plus hit tool going forward, with good speed and surprisingly good feel for 2nd base. First-division may be a stretch- he doesn't have power and he'll need to be a 6+ hitter or 7 with his small stature. He basically needs to be Altuve. How many Altuve's are there? I wrote him with second-divsion potential with a really good chance to become a utility guy that plays LF, CF, and 2B. Here's the report: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_bat.php?reportid=90 (Chris Rodriguez)
2014-07-01 13:00:00 (link to chat)I assume you have seen Julio Urias a good amount? What are your thoughts on him?
(Shawnykid23 from CT)
He's my spirit animal. Here's my report.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_pit.php?reportid=152 (Chris Rodriguez)
2014-07-11 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hypothetical Trade: The Rockies send Tulowitzki to the Dodgers for Joc Pederson and Julio Urias. Who says no? The Dodger can move HanRam to 3rd this(where he should be),aquire a SS for next year, they can afford him, and the Rockies get 2 top 20 prospects to add to their hoard. Smart in-division trade?
(Hypothetical Trades from Everywhere)
Rockies say no. I think they're inclined to say no to almost anything, and Urias plus Pederson isn't an overwhelming enough package. (Ben Lindbergh)
2014-06-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)Since he's about the same age as a high school draftee, I'm curious where you think Julio Urias would have gone in this year's draft? 1:1?
(jclarkin316 from Columbia)
He would have been in the discussion for 1:1 for sure. I saw something comparing Urias to Aiken and that particular scout preferred Aiken, though it was close. Both are extremely polished for their age. The Marlins wanted the velo in Kolek, so I don't know if he would've gone there either but he would have been in the discussion among the first few picks and would probably have gone top 5. (Jeff Moore)
2014-06-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)Keep hearing that Julio Urias doesn't have much projection left. Does that really mean a 17yo has little room for improvement left?
(Not Donald Sterling from Los Angeles)
When I see that, I cringe. He doesn't have physical projection, sure. However, the arsenal has room to improve, including the consistency and command profiles. It often bothers me that people think Urias is maxed out as a pitcher at 17. He's just extremely polished, and that's not necessarily a bad thing. In fact, it's an amazing thing. I'm not sure he has ace upside necessarily, but I'm firmly convinced he's top of the rotation material. (Jordan Gorosh)
2014-06-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)I feel like I'm looking at a rerun of Zach Wheeler while I watch Archie Bradley progress. Do you see Archies' MLB early career mirroring Wheelers'? Will Julio Urias be up any sooner than 2017? How about jos Pederson, does LA make any space for him by 2016? Thanks for the Chat! Always appreciate your insights!
(Dragonbreath from Gurnee, IL)
That's not a bad comparison in that they are both blue-chippers (similarly sized, too) with control issues as they come up. I don't think Bradley will be instantly good upon arrival because of his control, but he'll have flashes of brilliance. Urias will take a while for sure, but Pederson can't waste away in AAA that long. If they can't really find room at any pt this year, then they have to look to trade him to fill other holes. It'd just be a massive waste for him to sit two more seasons in AAA (Paul Sporer)
2014-05-13 11:00:00 (link to chat)Assuming health, what is Julio Urias' floor?
(trigger1583 from CA)
#3 starter (Jason Parks)
2014-05-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)What's the ceiling for Raimel Tapia based on his tools? Does he have best OF prospect in the game upside? (Assuming that when he's close, Buxton is already in MLB).
(Shawnykid23 from CT)
It's too early to put that on him, though I guess by the time he's in the upper minors, that's certainly a possibility. Remember, and I said the same thing about Julio Urias in another chat, that just because a player is having success at a young age doesn't raise his ceiling. His ceiling is based on his future tools, not what he's doing at a young age, as impressive as it may be. Just because Urias is pitching in A-ball at 17 doesn't make him a future ace. His stuff says number 2 starter. Same with Tapia. Just because he's young doesn't make him the best. Of course, his hit tool could make him the best, so there's that. (Jeff Moore)
2014-05-02 14:00:00 (link to chat)Any concerns with Julio Urias's slow start?
(Scott from AZ)
Urias has nothing but time on his hands, and the fact that he is still growing means that he will fall out of his delivery on occasion as his physical profile continues to change. I'm not concerned at all. (Doug Thorburn)
2014-04-16 19:00:00 (link to chat)I just traded Nolan Arenado, Julio Urias and Brian Goodwin for David Wright in a 16 team, 40 man roster, 5x5 league. I am middle division team with a surplus of good prospects. Thoughts on the deal?
(Gravybill from New York, NY)
I think you gave up a lot, but if you think you can compete in the next two seasons, this is fine. I like Arenado more than most and used to like Goodwin more than most, though his star is fading in my eyes. Urias will be quite good, but not irreplaceable. (Ben Carsley)
2014-04-17 12:00:00 (link to chat)What is the general consensus on Julio Urias? What he's doing at his age is impressive, but what exactly is his long term upside? Is he a front of the rotation starter, or will his potential be limited due to his size? Do you think his production at his age is sort of masking some of his flaws in his long term upside? Thanks in advance for the help. Absolutely love these chats.
(Marlon from CA)
Thanks, Marlon, I love doing these chats. It's a privilege. As far as Urias goes, what he's doing at his age is very impressive. I haven't seen him pitch so I'm just going off the numbers, and right now the numbers aren't great. He's 17 and in High-A though, and that is very impressive. That means he's farther along developmentally than all of his age group. I'm sorry I'm not answering the specifics of your question, they are better left to one of the BP prospect team, but when you see a guy pitch as well as Urias (i.e. miss bats) at his age and at this level, it bears watching. (Or is it bares watching? Pretty sure it's bears...) (Matthew Kory)
2014-04-21 13:00:00 (link to chat)Who would you rather have in a dynasty league, Hunter Harvey or Julio Urias? And why?
(Clarke H. from NY)
Hard to believe the answer is an 17-year-old when it comes to keepers in fantasy, but he's probably closer to the majors than is Harvey, and when it comes to keeper leagues, that's always a huge factor. That said, Harvey has the higher ceiling. It's important to remember with Urias that just because he's doing what he's doing at an incredibly young age, it doesn't raise his ceiling. Urias projects as a number two while Harvey could be an ace. The floor is higher on Urias because he's closer to the majors. It's your call on what you want. (Jeff Moore)
2014-04-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)Julio Urias is often pegged as not having much projection left. Why is that? Sure, he's odd in that he's young playing full season ball, but how many 17 year olds haven't been able to get between 'high school' and the big leagues? I feel like the prospect evaluators are being short-sighted or lazy with that label. Thoughts?
(brentdaily from boulder)
Most of the questions about projection with Urias center on his physical projection. There's not much room for change in the body, unless it goes in the wrong direction (which wouldn't be good for anyone). Without that physical projection, it is difficult to project an uptick in the raw stuff. His secondary pitches already show impressive polish for his age, and when that happens, you have to legitimately question where the big step forward is going to come from.

I liken this back to Dylan Bundy when he was first hitting pro ball; I had questions about where the big step forward was going to come from, and while everyone seemed to be screaming future ace, I was left wondering if we weren't looking at more of a 2/3 type. The same holds true in many respects with Urias; the arsenal, body and command are so advanced for his age, how much can we really project him to improve up on those traits. When that's the case, you have to be careful about getting carried away with the future role.

In the end, I don't think it is getting carried away to say Urias has a #2 ceiling and a likely role in the middle of an MLB rotation. (Mark Anderson)
2014-03-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)What is the scouting report on Julio Urias from a mechanics perspective? Is it his mechanics that makes people think he could be ready for the big leagues as a teenager or something else? Thanks!
(cje0113 from Illinois)
He grades out quite well mechanically (per Doug Thorburn in our SP Guide this year), but he also has fantastic stuff. Throw in his left-handedness AND age and it's just bananas the upside this guy has. From a fantasy angle, I'm still taking the closer studs like Taillon, Syndergaard, Gray, Stephenson, and even Butler ahead of him, but I definitely like this youngster. (Paul Sporer)
2014-03-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)I picked up Julio Urias in the 35th round of a 15 team league. I'll be able to keep him at a 4 round penalty per year through 2017. Did I do the right thing? Was also considering Clint Frazier with that same pick.
(Vic from Baltimore)
Without knowing everyone that was available, it's OK. It's just a matter of when he can get there and start delivering. But a 31 and 27 as you wait isn't egregious (Paul Sporer)
2014-03-04 13:00:00 (link to chat)Can Julio Urias sustain a heavy work load with that frame?
(Dragonbreath from Gurtnee, IL)
his frame isn't close to mature, keep that in mind. So if you have doubts remember to project it forward. (Harry Pavlidis)
2014-02-03 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thank you for spending your time with us. As an investor, I favor growth stocks. Is my investment in Julio Urias growing? Or, has he reached the 6 foot height level yet? Again, thanks.
(nictaclacta from Glendale)
I don't know anything about investment trading but Urias is 17, there's still more growth potential there and he might make it to the majors as a teenager if everything breaks right. (Mauricio Rubio)
2014-01-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)What is a likely ETA for Julio Urias? Ceiling? Floor?
(SJLedet from Alexandria, La)
Urias is a freak, and it's hard to figure out how to project freaks. He could race through the minor leagues and reach the LA in 2014, but I'm not sure that's what is best for his development. Residing somewhere in reality, I think he makes his debut in 2015. He could be a #2 starter and as far as his floor goes, I think you're looking at a back of the rotation arm. The big question that must be answered is just how much projection he has in his body/stuff...there are scouts that rightfully question whether he can really get THAT much better, and if that holds true, he comes in closer to his floor than his ceiling. (Mark Anderson)
2013-12-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)Vegas over/under number of number 2 or better starters from this group: Lewis Thorpe, Julio Urias, Hunter Harvey, Edwin Diaz, Alex Reyes, Jesse Hahn, Steven Matz, Adalberto Mejia.
(huggirl from Joisey)
From that group, one pitcher will develop into a number two starter (or better). I was tempted to say 0. (Jason Parks)
2013-12-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)Trying to temper my expections of Julio Urias but he evokes #bathnight. What is a realistic ETA and is he more likely a mid-rotation starter than what I want to believe?
(Marco from LA)
He's a stud. No doubt. Here's my concern--if you can really call it a major concern. How much better does he get? He's taller than his listed height, but by no means a physical specimen. The stuff is very good now (91-93 T 95); 50/55 CB/CH with a chance to be 6/6. That's great stuff, but its not special stuff. The pitchability makes the overall package even more appealing, as does the advanced development, but I don't see a frontline ceiling.

I think he could be a #2/3 starter, and sooner than people realize. I wouldn't be shocked if he reaches the majors as an 18-year-old. He's a no doubt top 50 prospect in baseball, and I might go #1 in the Dodgers system with him. Not sure yet. (Jason Parks)
2013-12-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)Jason, could you rank these pitchers by upside? Aaron Sanchez, Tyler Glasnow, and Julio Urias. Thanks.
(cracker73 from Florida)
Sanchez, Urias, Glasnow (Jason Parks)
2013-12-20 14:00:00 (link to chat)Out of all the top pitching prospects out there at the moment, are there any that truly excite you to see how they progress next year?
(Lucas Punkari from Airdrie, Alberta)
Julio Urias, whom I wrote about today for Raising Aces. He is incredibly advanced for his age, yet he still has some growth and maturation ahead in terms of physical development, refinement of his arsenal, and honing his mechanics. (Doug Thorburn)
2013-12-20 14:00:00 (link to chat)Thanks for the chat, Doug. I find your pitching insights very interesting. I feel a little guilty that all I can do is ask selfish fantasy questions, but which do you see reaching their potential: Mark Appel, Jonathan Gray, or perhaps Julio Urias?
(Mr. Beef from Chicago)
No guilt necessary, Mr. Beef - I'm a huge fan of the fantasy game.

Your question is a good one, as these are three VERY different pitchers. Appel is most likely to reach his potential, because he is almost there already. He has a very high floor, but I feel that his ceiling is limited (he lives in a small room). I think that Gray has the most upside of the group, and he doesn't have too big of a hill to climb in order to get there. Urias might have the greatest potential in theory, given his age and right-now stuff (and left-handedness), but he also has the longest distance to go before reaching ceiling, and I think that he will need some refinement of his breaking ball in order to approach Gray's ultimate potential. But Urias' change-up is sick.

Oh, and how many times in one chat can I make a reference to climbing mountains and hills in order to reach a ceiling? I need to come up with some new phrases, or perhaps find an indoor mountain to climb.

On the jukebox: Rage Against the Machine, "Know Your Enemy" (Doug Thorburn)
2013-11-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)Who do you prefer out of two young foreign arms in Julio Urias and Lewis Thorpe? Both quick movers or more so the first than the second?
(Big Tex from San Antoine)
Urias. Even more advanced. (Jason Parks)
2013-11-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)At jury duty wondering if I should pull a Cusack (#RunawayJury). Which prospects have you seen whose mechanics were exceptional given their age/stuff/advancement?
(AJ from Phoenix)
I can't say "exceptional" but I can say what I like (I'm an analyst, not a scout) and there are plenty of guys I simply haven't seen yet. That said, Julio Urias pops to mind, no one that young should be in the MWL let alone pitch as well as he did. Taijuan Walker has that amazingly easy power. So does Aaron Sanchez, nice and balanced. Marcus Stroman has amazing arm speed and athleticism in his delivery. (Harry Pavlidis)
2013-11-22 14:00:00 (link to chat)Do you have anything new on Julio Urias? Is it realistic for him to make it to the majors as a teenager?
(sitdancer from TPMD)
Urias still has a ways to go, but his combination of youth and advanced learning curve could put him in Dodger Stadium before his 20th birthday. He is an incredible specimen of the pitching order, and I will deep-diving the Urias situation in an upcoming Raising Aces column, coming to a website near you. (Doug Thorburn)
2013-10-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)Tyler Glasnow or Julio Urias?
(Brett from St. Louis)
Urias. (Jason Parks)
2013-09-27 13:00:00 (link to chat)Help, Mark. Do you believe that Julio Urias is worth holding onto in a dynasty league with 10 Minor slots? Thanks
(nictaclacta from Glendale)
Our top notch fantasy team would be better suited for this, but given that I think Urias is a fantastic prospect and easily a Top 100 guy, I'd say you should hold onto him. (Mark Anderson)
2013-09-04 13:00:00 (link to chat)I saw somewhere that Dodgers officials are saying Julio Urias could be in LA as early as age 18. Given how agreesive they were with Puig, does this seem possible? Could he have a role 7 ceiling?
(Shawnykid23 from CT)
I don't think it has anything to do with Puig; player specific.

But yes, I think he could pitch in the majors as an 18-year-old. Some marketing and PR advantages built in with Urias. but the overall profile could justify such an aggressive developmental plan. (Jason Parks)
2013-08-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Jason, I know they are extremely young & far away from the show but any thoughts on Tyler Glasnow, Luiz Gohara & Julio Urias? Are all 3 possibly role 7 pitchers as there ceilings?
(kiper90 from Rochester, NY)
Like you said, they're all a long way away with serious risk (especially Gohara), but very good ceilings. Urias has been really exciting this year. Flirting mid-90s in every start from the left side with a feel for pitching and a very advanced changeup. (Jason Cole)
2013-08-08 17:30:00 (link to chat)I know they are extremely young & far away from the show but any thoughts on Julio Urias & Luiz Gohara & what there ceilings maybe?
(kiper90 from Rochester)
Julio Urias' numbers look terrific for a 16-year-old. He has an ace's ceiling, but he could be a #4-5. He's a long way off. Gohara's in rookie ball. Impressive for a 17-year-old, but he's in rookie ball. The Magic 8-ball says ask again later. (Mike Gianella)
2013-07-29 11:00:00 (link to chat)Thoughts on 16 yo Julio Urias and his ultimate upside?
(Gary from Long Beach)
Julio Urias has a frontline starter ceiling. (Zach Mortimer)
2013-07-19 13:00:00 (link to chat)Happy Friday, Paul. Excited about the prospect of your pitching website. Recently added Julio Urias and Luiz Gohara as long-term investments for dynasty league with ten slots for minors. Any possibility of either tracking Felix Hernandez?
(nictaclacta from Phoenix)
Waaaaaaaaaay early for that, but the fun of prospects is dreaming big. You have a looooooooong wait ahead of you, but plenty of dreaming! (Paul Sporer)
2013-07-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)Where does Julio Urias rank among the minor league pitcher talent pool?
(teaaker from Seattle)
Urias is just 16, and there is so such a large gap between what he is and what he will become that it is pure guesswork to compare him to 20-year old contemporaries. So I would not personally rank him just yet, and would defer to Jason Parks and our killer BP prospect team for an apt comparison, as I have yet to see Urias pitch for myself. - http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19492 (Doug Thorburn)
2013-06-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)Jason, After seeing you rank Julio Urias at 41, I'm going to prescribe you some pills to treat your extreme case of Shiny New Toy Syndrome. Urias has been impressive in a small sample size in LoA, but last year Kyle Crick was arguably more impressive over a full season in LoA, with a higher K/9 and not giving up a single earned run in June. I know Urias is just 16, but it's almost as if Crick (and other US teenagers) are being penalized for being born in the US and therefore not eligible to succeed as early as some of their international counterparts. Also, the pills have been know to treat syphilis too, in case that means anything to you.
(Your Doctor from NY)
I'm not interested in the debate over LA signees and Rule 4 signees. Urias is on the list because his talent puts him on the list. I'm not some blogger using Google to compare players. I talk to people in the game, and if the reports on Urias weren't legit, I wouldn't have ranked him where I did. He's a 16-year-old 6'1'' lefty who is missing more than a bat an inning at the full-season level. If you don't think that's a legit prospect, you might need to invest in some pills of your own. (Jason Parks on the Midseason Top 50 Prospects)


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