Biographical

Portrait of Matt Harvey

Matt Harvey PReds

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2018 Projections (Rest of Season Projections - seasonal age 29)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
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Birth Date3-27-1989
Height6' 4"
Weight215 lbs
Age29 years, 5 months, 30 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
2014
5.32015
1.82016
-1.62017
1.02018
+proj
WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA..
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR oppTAv PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP TAv WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA- WARP
2012 NYN MLB 10 10 59.3 3 5 0 42 26 70 5 .263 95 6.4 3.9 0.8 10.6 41% .262 .234 1.15 3.33 2.73 95 3.33 76.3 1.3
2013 NYN MLB 26 26 178.3 9 5 0 135 31 191 7 .251 95 6.8 1.6 0.4 9.6 49% .280 .203 0.93 1.97 2.27 63 2.07 49.6 6.2
2015 NYN MLB 29 29 189.3 13 8 0 156 37 188 18 .260 88 7.4 1.8 0.9 8.9 49% .273 .233 1.02 3.07 2.71 85 2.74 63.9 5.3
2016 NYN MLB 17 17 92.7 4 10 0 111 25 76 8 .255 93 10.8 2.4 0.8 7.4 44% .353 .294 1.47 3.50 4.86 94 3.70 82.0 1.8
2017 NYN MLB 19 18 92.7 5 7 0 110 47 67 21 .265 92 10.7 4.6 2.0 6.5 46% .307 .316 1.69 6.39 6.70 123 7.11 151.3 -1.6
2018 CIN 0 23 23 123.0 7 7 0 126 28 105 20 .264 102 9.2 2.0 1.5 7.7 45% .294 .263 1.25 4.33 4.46 105 4.80 107.4 0.7
2018 NYN 0 8 4 27.0 0 2 0 33 9 20 6 .260 90 11.0 3.0 2.0 6.7 43% .310 .344 1.56 5.64 7.00 105 4.33 96.8 0.3
2018 TOT MLB 31 27 150.0 7 9 0 159 37 125 26 .263 100 9.5 2.2 1.6 7.5 45% .297 .279 1.31 4.57 4.92 105 4.72 105.5 1.0
CareerMLB132127762.34144071320371785.259948.42.41.08.546%.294.2551.203.583.79913.6682.314.0

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR oppTAv PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP TAv WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA-
2011 SLU A+ 14 14 76.0 8 2 0 67 24 92 5 .258 107 7.9 2.8 0.6 10.9 51% .335 .215 1.20 2.83 2.37 65 1.75 38.3
2011 BIN AA 12 12 59.7 5 3 0 58 23 64 4 .272 91 8.7 3.5 0.6 9.7 52% .327 .264 1.36 3.44 4.53 82 2.22 48.1
2012 NYN MLB 10 10 59.3 3 5 0 42 26 70 5 .263 95 6.4 3.9 0.8 10.6 41% .262 .234 1.15 3.33 2.73 95 3.33 76.3
2012 BUF AAA 20 20 110.0 7 5 0 97 48 112 9 .252 102 7.9 3.9 0.7 9.2 46% .295 .239 1.32 3.65 3.68 85 2.95 67.1
2013 NYN MLB 26 26 178.3 9 5 0 135 31 191 7 .251 95 6.8 1.6 0.4 9.6 49% .280 .203 0.93 1.97 2.27 63 2.07 49.6
2015 NYN MLB 29 29 189.3 13 8 0 156 37 188 18 .260 88 7.4 1.8 0.9 8.9 49% .273 .233 1.02 3.07 2.71 85 2.74 63.9
2016 NYN MLB 17 17 92.7 4 10 0 111 25 76 8 .255 93 10.8 2.4 0.8 7.4 44% .353 .294 1.47 3.50 4.86 94 3.70 82.0
2017 NYN MLB 19 18 92.7 5 7 0 110 47 67 21 .265 92 10.7 4.6 2.0 6.5 46% .307 .316 1.69 6.39 6.70 123 7.11 151.3
2017 BRO A- 2 2 4.0 0 0 0 2 1 3 0 .266 93 4.5 2.2 0.0 6.8 67% .222 .161 0.75 2.67 2.25 96 3.51 83.8
2017 BIN AA 2 2 7.7 0 0 0 9 2 5 1 .272 104 10.6 2.3 1.2 5.9 33% .308 .297 1.43 4.79 5.87 114 6.23 137.7
2018 CIN MLB 23 23 123.0 7 7 0 126 28 105 20 .264 102 9.2 2.0 1.5 7.7 45% .294 .263 1.25 4.33 4.46 105 4.80 107.4
2018 NYN MLB 8 4 27.0 0 2 0 33 9 20 6 .260 90 11.0 3.0 2.0 6.7 43% .310 .344 1.56 5.64 7.00 105 4.33 96.8

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2012 978 0.5000 0.4796 0.7271 0.6646 0.2945 0.8092 0.5417 0.2729
2013 2692 0.5186 0.4967 0.7210 0.6454 0.3364 0.7980 0.5619 0.2790
2015 2703 0.5246 0.4750 0.7313 0.6206 0.3144 0.8125 0.5545 0.2687
2016 1498 0.5027 0.4967 0.7809 0.6547 0.3369 0.8276 0.6892 0.2191
2017 1677 0.4949 0.4508 0.8095 0.6590 0.2468 0.8574 0.6842 0.1905
2018 2455 0.5360 0.4786 0.7940 0.6664 0.2616 0.8404 0.6577 0.2060
Career120030.51670.48030.75860.64870.30030.82280.61120.2414

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-03-21 2014-09-29 60-DL 192 162 Right Elbow Recovery From Previous Injury Tommy John Surgery 2013-10-22 -
2013-10-22 2013-10-22 Off 0 0 Right Elbow Surgery Tommy John Surgery 2013-10-22 -
2013-08-25 2013-09-30 60-DL 36 35 Right Elbow Sprain Ulnar Collateral Ligament - -
2013-07-09 2013-07-16 DTD 7 5 Right Fingers Blister Index Finger - -
2013-06-08 2013-06-08 DTD 0 0 - Low Back Tightness - -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2018 NYN $5,625,000
2017 NYN $5,125,000
2016 NYN $4,325,000
2015 NYN $614,125
2014 NYN $546,625
2013 NYN $498,750
2012 NYN $
YearsDescriptionSalary
5 yrPrevious$11,109,500
2018Current$5,625,000
6 yrPvs + Cur$16,734,500
6 yrTotal$16,734,500

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
5 y 72 dBoras Corp.1 year/$5.625M (2018)

Details
  • 1 year/$5.625M (2018). Re-signed by NY Mets 1/12/18 (avoided arbitration). Acquired by Cincinnati in trade 5/8/18 after being DFA by NY Mets 5/5/18. As part of the trade, Reds pay Mets $5,788,978 to account for the difference in remaining 2018 salaries between Harvey and Devin Mesoraco.
  • 1 year/$5.125M (2017). Re-signed by NY Mets 1/13/17 (avoided arbitration). Performance bonuses: $25,000 each for 150, 160, 170 innings pitched.
  • 1 year/$4.325M (2016). Re-signed by NY Mets 1/15/16 (avoided arbitration). Performance bonus: $25,000 for 200 innings pitched. Award bonus: $25,000 for Cy Young.
  • 1 year/$614,125 (2015). Re-signed by NY Mets 3/5/15.
  • 1 year/$546,625 (2014). Re-signed by NY Mets 3/3/14 (split contract, $299,250 in minors). Performance bonuses: $10,000 for 2013 All-Star selection (met). $50,000 for fourth place in 2013 Cy Young vote (met).
  • 1 year/$498,750 (2013). Re-signed by NY Mets 3/3/13.
  • 1 year (2012). Contract purchased by NY Mets 7/24/12.
  • Drafted by NY Mets 2010 (1-7) (North Carolina). Signed 8/16/10, $2.525M signing bonus.

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Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv
10 vs L (Multi) .265 .319 .423 .282
11 vs R (Multi) .248 .280 .350 .232
18 Split (Multi) .017 .039 .073 .050
19 LgAvg (Multi) .006 .020 .015 .013
30 vs L (2016) .321 .370 .495 .324
31 vs R (2016) .282 .317 .407 .260
38 Split (2016) .039 .052 .088 .065
39 LgAvg (2016) .003 .018 .013 .012

Definition of multi-year splits

BP Annual Player Comments

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BP Articles

Click here to see articles tagged with Matt Harvey

BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2017-09-21 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thank you for doing this chat Nick. I have to cut one of these three guys (Daniel Norris, Matt Harvey or Matt Strahm) to make my roster legal going into the off season. Who you cutting in preparation for next year? Your thoughts on the two guys you keep for the next year? Thank you!
(MatternK from Point Mugu, CA)
Thanks for your question, MatternK!

It's depressing, but I think I'm cutting Matt Harvey. At this point, I feel like we have to assume that thoracic outlet syndrome surgery is absolutely devastating, and Harvey's pitching since he developed TOS symptoms / post-surgery supports that position.

I've always been a Norris believer and think he could still figure things out, even if it is out of the bullpen. Strahm I don't know quite as well, and the knee injury isn't encouraging but...well, he has a chance to be good and I'm not sure Harvey does anymore. (Nick Schaefer)
2017-05-08 20:00:00 (link to chat)Matt Harvey and Jesse Hahn were teammates at Fitch High School in CT. Who has the highest ceiling now?
(JM from CT)
It's still Harvey for me, but I like what I've seen from Hahn this year. He's healthy, which is nice. (Mark Barry)
2017-05-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)Any thoughts on Matt Harvey? Does he ever become a all star again?
(Jason from ny)
It's getting harder and harder to think he ever returns to his 2015 form. The strikeouts down, walks are up, velocity is down, and the ball is flying out of the park on him. He won't be this bad forever, but if I had to put money on it...I don't think he ever becomes an All Star again. (Eric Roseberry)
2017-04-28 13:30:00 (link to chat)Anything in watching Matt Harvey to think he's not just a 3 now? (starter, not role)
(Sidd from NJ)
He's recovering from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome which we haven't really seen a guy of his stature, at his age do, so I guess the thing to hang your hat on is that there's a longer timetable to recovering fully and he's just working his way through that process. There's so much we don't know. Of course throwing him the day after a hard workout won't help. (Craig Goldstein)
2017-02-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)Any early predictions for a Matt Harvey trade next offseason (asssuming he's healthy and plays well)? I could see him going to Boston for deal around Devers or Texas for deal around Tavares
(Carlos from Westchester)
I think Boston probably holds off on a trade after SaleAPalooza, if only because they seem to fetishize their prospects as much as national writers do. Texas makes some sense actually, since they have prospects and they have the need. I think Harvey's going to have a strong year, though, and I think the Mets will probably get a top 10 prospect for him. I wouldn't count out a rebuilding team like the Phillies trying to take a leap ahead by shedding prospect excess as a result. (Trevor Strunk)
2016-05-26 19:00:00 (link to chat)If the Mets decided to give up on Matt Harvey, at this point, what would it take for the cubs to land him?
(BC from Urbandale)
This is the realm of fantasy, but I'd imagine the Mets would still want at least two top prospects, at least. They're not going to sell low on a cost controlled pitcher with Harvey's ceiling. (Mike Gianella)
2016-05-26 19:00:00 (link to chat)Are you worried about Matt Harvey long term?
(Jason from NY)
I'm not worried about him as a solid major league pitcher long term. I am worried that he is going to be just a mid-tier guy and not the superstar we were all hoping for. Some sigh with relief when a problem is just mechanical but working your way through these problems can take months or years. So I guess I'm somewhat worried, yeah. (Mike Gianella)
2016-05-18 19:00:00 (link to chat)What's your level of concern with Matt Harvey? Is this fallout from the workload last year? Thanks for chatting!
(Truganini from Co)
I'm just happy to be here...#PostGameInterviewStatus...I would say 0.0 on the concern-o-meter. Look at his BABIP. It's currently .373. His career BABIP is like .280...So there's some regression coming there. The strikeouts are still there and by cFIP (our predictive pitching metric at BP) he's at 102, which is right around league average. It really comes down to what you're expectations were coming into the year. If you pegged him as one of the 10-20 best pitchers in the league, it's not happening. (George Bissell)
2016-04-28 13:00:00 (link to chat)Jeff Passan wrote about the upcoming wave of top-tier pitchers hitting free agency post-TJ. Are we all overestimating front offices' willingness to shell out huge dollars for guys with a TJ? And in that context, what is a realistic extension offer for Matt Harvey right now?
(Greg from New York)
Top-level starting pitching is always going to be rare commodity on the market. By the time Harvey gets to FA, there will be a few more test cases for this sort of thing (Strasburg this year might be the best comp). I am struggling to think of a recent starting pitcher extension for a guy into his arb years that wasn't close to market value. Now Harvey would probably be silly to pass up something close to that, but let's be honest, the Mets aren't offering. Reframe it as a potential trade with a negotiating window: Let's say hypothetically it happens this upcoming offseason and Harvey gets back to his 2015 form. 7/159 with a couple options/buyouts? I am bad at this game (Jeffrey Paternostro)
2016-04-21 19:00:00 (link to chat)Buying Matt Harvey? Yasiel Puig or Starling Marte too much?
(Shawn from CT)
It seems to be a mechanical, fixable issue but I worry that it will take another 1-3 starts to fix this. Puig is fair, but I'm not the biggest Puig fan. (Mike Gianella)
2016-04-22 13:00:00 (link to chat)At this point it seems pretty much guaranteed Bryce Harper is going to garner a mammoth contract when he hits free agency. Realistically, where do you think he could sign? How shocked would you be if he *didn't* sign with the Yankees? Or if he stayed with the Nationals?
(Brendan from Hoboken)
I would be pretty surprised if he doesn't sign with the Yankees, frankly. They'll open up their checkbook, they should have a spot open in the outfield alongside Jacoby Ellsbury (yep, he'll still be there) and Aaron Judge, and in the order right behind Ellsbury (still there!) and Judge. He might hit 40 dingers to right field alone.

I also think he fits the city of New York incredibly well. You need a guy with his attitude (sort of like Matt Harvey). He'll welcome the attention, and become a mega star. Don't see where else he would go other than New York if he decided to leave Washington. (Kenny Ducey)
2016-03-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)Im trying to explore potential Matt Harvey trades for this offseason. I dont think the Mets will trade him within the NL, and I think it looks like the Rangers and Red sox make the most sense. Do either/both of these trades make sense: Harvey for Gallo, Tate & Martin Harvey for Moncada, Kopech & Travis
(Alex from New York)
My wheelhouse is, in fact, fictional Matt Harvey trades. I sincerely doubt the Mets have any interest in moving him either this (current) offseason or during this year. Too good, too young. Do the trades you projected make sense? Well ... sure, I suppose. The deal with Boston would be a huge win for the Mets in my opinion (Moncada's the game's #3 prospect here at BP). The Rangers I'd imagine would go nuts over the deal you proposed, but on the Mets side, I'd stay away. Gallo has great potential, but worries me, and pitchers are pitchers: never to be trusted. (Bryan Grosnick)
2015-10-22 14:00:00 (link to chat)On your answer to Danny's question, who do you think could honestly afford the asking price for Matt Harvey? He's a top 5 pitcher in baseball when healthy, with three years of under market-market value control remaining? The Mets are a team whose window will clearly be open for that entire time frame, so they're pretty clearly going to ask for an astronomical package. Do you honestly think there would be anyone out there willing to meet it?
(Steve0 from VT)
If the asking price is as high as you describe, no. I think it'll be lower. I think Harvey's going to cost $34 million or more over the next three years, and with the QO tamping down the top of the market in free agency, that's not as cheap as it once was, relative to FA options. I think the Mets can patch one of their key positional holes by dealing Harvey, though, and I think they'll do it. (Matthew Trueblood)
2015-10-06 19:30:00 (link to chat)Which of these two teams is Matt Harvey pitching for next year?
(Prospect Lover from New Yawk)
I don't think Alderson can sell a Harvey to the Yankees trade, even if they probably could put together a reasonably compettive deal. Mets and Cubs have been talking a bunch and that's an interesting fit. - JP (AL Wild Card Game Chat)
2015-05-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)In my Yahoo league I am building for next year and thereafter. My roster is Russell Martin, Kendrys Morales, Josh Harrison, Brock Holt, Brett Gardner, Dexter Fowler, Gregory Polanco, Coco Crisp, Carlos Ruiz, Travis Snider, Kyle (and Corey) Seager, Jason Heyward, Carlos Correa, Desmond Jennings, Javier Baez, Matt Harvey, Carlos Martinez, Jimmy Nelson, Edinson Volquez, Jonathan Paplebon, Chris Heston, Noah Syndergaard, Lucas Giolito, Julio Urias, Jose Berrios, Matt Cain and Sean Doolittle. 8 keepers allowed. Comments? Suggestions?
(TimLandry from Montreal Quebec Canada)
Keep Matt Harvey eight times. (Christopher Crawford)
2015-03-06 14:00:00 (link to chat)I am feeling...things after watching Matt Harvey. Wonderful Things!
(Matt from Cambridge)
Go with those feelings. Go with them. (Christopher Crawford)
2014-09-29 14:00:00 (link to chat)Neither New York team (I am not partial to one over the other) has a clear path to return to relevance. The Mets have superb young pitching, but lack any depth of hitting talent- after Duda and Murphy, what is there? As for the Yankees, I can't see them as anything other than Oakland-East, in the absence of any upcoming talent. Where is the Jeter in this system? What do you suggest?
(BeplerP from New York, NY)
I can't remember who said this, it may have been Ben Lindbergh, but the Yankees have a fairly simple path to returning to relevance: sign all of the good players. I think Hanley Ramirez is Bronx-bound this offseason, as is one of the better starting pitchers on the market. They'll need more from Brian McCann than they got this year, but a turnaround doesn't seem THAT unlikely. Provided Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda stay healthy in 2015, they'll contend.

As for the Mets, it all comes down to how much they want to spend on free agents. David Wright should bounce back, and I like Dilson Herrera a lot. If Matt Harvey comes back healthy, there's a lot to like here, too. (Daniel Rathman)
2014-08-08 13:00:00 (link to chat)10-team league where you keep 7 guys. I'm thinking about going super young and keeping: Harper, Taveras, Machado, Billy Hamilton, Matt Harvey, Kris Bryant, CarGo. Any chance my 2015 team doesn't suck ass?
(Bobby from Chicago)
Yeah there's a chance, but there's a *ton* of risk that you have in those guys. Good long term bets on all of them, but you should focus your draft on 2015 talent and not worry about future bets too much if this is going to be your strategy. (Craig Goldstein)
2014-07-25 14:00:00 (link to chat)Do you think that Matt Harvey's superior mechanics and the fact that his problem was probably in pitch usage allow him to hit the ground running as opposed to other TJ/Inverted W guys like Wainwright(who took a year) and Strasburg(who still isn't the same)?
(jason from NY)
It really depends on the specific aspects of his physical progress. His mechanics are a buffer, but they also allow him to produce the crazy velocities that simultaneously up the risk. I do think that he has the ingredients for a smooth rehab, and his mechanics should allow for superior repetition and consistency of movement. Mechanical volatility is more of a health problem than many people realize.

On the jukebox: Rage Against the Machine, "People of the Sun" (Doug Thorburn)
2014-07-25 14:00:00 (link to chat)Thoughts on Zach Wheeler? Do you see him as having front of the rotation potential?
(Frank from Olympia)
Wheeler has quietly stepped it up over the past several weeks. He has front-of-the-rotation stuff and the mechanical baselines to reach ceiling, and though Matt Harvey may have created some unfair comparisons/expectations, I think that Wheeler can develop into a good #2 with time and improvement. (Doug Thorburn)
2014-07-03 19:00:00 (link to chat)Redraft keeper league, 12 teams, h2h, $280 budget, 25 players. I'm pushing for playoffs and have Matt Harvey for $3 sitting on the DL (max inflation is $5). I could use some more pitching or outfield help, but I don't want to just hand him away. What types of players should I be targeting? I've been offered Homer Bailey for him, but have been hesitant to pull the trigger, despite my secret/not-secret love for Bailey.
(Steve from Los Angeles)
You can do better than Bailey. I'm still targeting a top 50 overall guy (prospects included). Springer, Yellich, Jordan Zimmerman if you're into it. (Mauricio Rubio)
2014-04-21 13:00:00 (link to chat)Rafael Montero plus X = Joc Peterson. What is X, and shouldn't the Mets and Dodgers try to make this happen?
(Rob from Parts Unknown)
Prospect for prospect trades don't happen because prospects are volatile commodities and neither side wants to be the side that trades away the star. When teams trade away a prospect for a veteran, they at least know what they're getting back. You an argue that they gave up too much, but rarely does the team getting the veteran end up with nothing. In a prospect for prospect trade, that's a possibility and no one wants to be that GM.

That said, Montero and Pederson are similar levels of prospects, so I'm not sure why you'd need another piece. The reason it won't happen is because trading away pitching depth is about the dumbest thing anyone could ever do. Matt Harvey is still injured right? You could give me the top 10 pitching prospects in baseball in my farm system and I wouldn't trade one of them away before they got to the majors. (Jeff Moore)
2014-04-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)Does(Did) Matt Harvey have the best mechanics in the mlb to you? Does that offer more of a chance that he fully gets back to where he was before the surgery?
(Jason from NY)
Love Harvey's mechanics - he was one of the 5 A's in the SP Guide. That helps to increase his odds of a full recovery, though it should be noted that his injury may have been exacerbated by the uptick in velocity that came along with his improvement in the categories of mechanical power. It will be interesting to see if he eases off the gas pedal a bit when he returns. (Doug Thorburn)
2014-02-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)Everything I read suggests it best to be patient on Gausman. I have the opportunity to acquire him and Matt Harvey in a deal for Wil Myers and a 1st round pick in minor league draft. Thumbs up? For context, I am not really trying to win this year and I have Buxton, Polanco, Dahl, Soler coming up the ranks but Kyle Zimmer is my only arm I can dream on.
(aaronayoung from DC)
I guess if you're looking for the future, then go ahead. I don't like giving up seasons, but if it's already set that you're unlikely to compete in 2014, then you might as well build up 2015 & beyond (Paul Sporer)
2014-02-28 14:00:00 (link to chat)Very deep 20-team dynasty league: I need MLB-ready pitching. I was offered Felix Hernandez and two bench bats (Likely Ackley and R Weeks) for Archie Bradley, Matt Harvey, and Marcus Stroman. I know you're not Sayre, Sporer, etc. But from the pitching expert side, do Harvey's TJ recovery, Bradley's control, and Stroman's size give you reason to part for the King?
(Jonah from Redwood)
It really depends on your team makeup and whether you have a good shot at 2014 contention or built for the long haul. I am optimistic about Harvey's return from injury, and he can be the King's equal if he comes all the way back. Interestingly, though, they are only about 3 yrs apart in age (Felix is just 27). Bradley and Stroman add considerable upside to the deal, and I would probably hold on to the young arms in a dynasty league - esp one with 20 teams, given that you need to have some extremes in order to prevail. But if you have a very strong team for 2014 that could age its way out of contention, then you may have to pull the trigger. (Doug Thorburn)
2014-02-06 13:00:00 (link to chat)Can you explain Pecota comps? A guy like Sonny Gray is compared to Travis Wood and Matt Harvey (#1 comp). Wood... multiple pitches.... Sonny Gray... not so much. Is it just statistics? I'm a newbie. Thanks!
(Jesse from NY)
we don't have pitch types in our comps...yet. I think this is a big thing we can do. But it is stats, body type etc. (Harry Pavlidis)
2014-01-29 19:00:00 (link to chat)Welcome Ben, I'll start you off with a curveball: Let's say every draft eligible prospect from 2010 to 2014 was eligible for this year's draft. Just based on pre-draft scouting reports and without the benefit of hindsight, how would the first 10 picks of the draft unfold?
(baseballjunkie from cali, where it's already Spring)
This is an amazingly difficult question to answer, and also quite fun. It's probably better suited for an article than for a fantasy chat answer, but since I was able to access this question ahead of time, here's what I came up with after about 30 min of research. I'll note that since I'm not familiar enough with 2014 prospects yet, I've restricted your search to 2010-2013 draftees. I'll go with:

1. Bryce Harper 2. Manny Machado 3. Gerrit Cole 4. Dylan Bundy 5. Anthony Rendon 6. Jameson Taillon 7. Bubba Starling
8. Byron Buxton 9. Carlos Correa 10. Archie Bradley

Toughest omissions for me were Francisco Lindor, Trevor Bauer, Kevin Gausman, Kris Bryant and Mark Appel. If Luc Giolito had been healthy for his senior year, he'd probably have made it on this list. Obviously that's not how we'd rank them now, and it's funny that guys like Chris Sale, Jose Fernandez, Matt Harvey and Javier Baez are left in the dust. Bubba Starling sticks out like a sore thumb, and Buxton was underrated. This exercise also reinforces how loaded the 2011 draft was. Last year's pales in comparison. (Ben Carsley)
2014-01-29 19:00:00 (link to chat)What do you see in prospects Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero of the Mets? How will they fair in an up and coming rotation that already has an ace in Matt Harvey and a young stud in Dan Wheeler? Will the Mets have the best starting rotation in the NL East in the next couple of years?
(Eric R. from North Carolina)
Matt Harvey > Zack Wheeler > Noah Syndergaard > Rafael Montero >>> Dan Wheeler (Ben Carsley)
2014-02-03 13:00:00 (link to chat)20-team, 3-Keeper H2H League: Is it worth it to burn one of my keeper slots to stash Matt Harvey away until 2015? I must keep 1 pitcher by rule, and the only other decent arm I have is Teheran.
(yancyeaton from Fort Myers)
If it's down to Teheran or Harvey I would keep Teheran. I don't think he's going to be better than Matt Harvey down the line but he'll be pitching in 2014 while Harvey is healing and rehabbing. With only three keepers you want someone who will provide positive value for your team asap and Teheran will do that. (Mauricio Rubio)
2014-02-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)There's a rumor the Mets plan to have Flores take reps at SS, dare I dream?
(anon from CA)
I wrote a whole article on this last week and got wholly ripped for saying I think it's a great idea. I don't know how much they'll do it, but I hope he plays there some.

Look, Flores will be a terrible major league shortstop, largely because he was a terrible minor league shortstop and now hasn't played the position in a few years. The Mets 2014 season, however, is basically 162 games of auditioning for 2015 when Matt Harvey returns. They need to see what they have in players like Ike Davis, Lucas Duda and Flores. Flores needs to get 400 at-bats this season. He'll get some at third, second and first, but as long as Davis, Duda, Murphy and others are still in town, he won't play there regularly. I think its worth dealing with some bad defense if it means getting him the AB's he needs to find out if he's an everyday hitter. If they can get him those at-bats somewhere else, then by all means do it. But I dont see it. You can't play him there every day because the pitchers will revolt, but 1-2 says per week at SS while also working him in at other positions seems like a good idea to me.

The Mets are going to be bad this year regardless. They might as well find out what they have in Flores to see if they can count on him for next year. (Jeff Moore)
2014-01-21 18:00:00 (link to chat)I have Matt Harvey in a dynasty league and am not sure what to do. 14 team 24 man starting roster and 5 person bench, no DL spots, $280 salary cap. He would cost me $10 to keep this year, with a $5 increase every year. Also if I decided to keep him, I have to sign him to a specified contract link this offseason and keep him exactly that many years. My pitching is weak at the moment, but we haven't had our auction for this year yet.
(Brad from Santa Barbara)
Hi Brad

A lot of that answer depends on your league. I agree it's really tough to make a commitment to a $15 starting pitcher coming off of a major injury, even with the $280 salary. I would probably throw him back as tough as that is. You're obviously not going to keep him at $10 for this year only, and keeping him at $15 just for a healthy 2015 that might be an adjustment year isn't worth it. I don't have to tell you that three years for $20 is folly. (Mike Gianella)
2014-01-21 18:00:00 (link to chat)If I decide to sell on Matt Harvey, what return should I "settle" for? If a team is middle of the road, maybe go prospect route and ask for Baez? MLB route and ask for who? Or just stay the course and wait a year for his return?
(AJ from Phoenix)
You're not going to get Javier Baez for an injured Matt Harvey in any of the leagues I play in. It seems like a bad time to trade Harvey. Teams are going to try to undercut you, and if they don't it's hard to know if you're really selling at a good time or if he'll bounce all the way back. I'd say if you can get 80% of his MLB value on a two-year keeper guy do it, but otherwise hold on tight. (Mike Gianella)
2014-01-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)A few mets questions here, and good ones at that. Travis d'Arnaud: still on track to be an all star catcher? Is it possible Matt Harvey can come back throwing HARDER than before? And how soon do we see Dominic Smith in the top 100? Thanks!
(MetsFaithful5 from Syracuse )
The ceiling still remains at that level for d'Arnaud, but at some point you have to wonder if injuries aren't going to keep him from achieving that level. He's going to be a very good player, but the All-Star projection may not materialize because of the lack of durability.

I've always been a firm believer that TJ surgery survivors throwing harder after surgery is a myth.

With Smith, it all depends on the bat. He could force his way into that discussion next winter by posting impressive numbers with the scouting reports to back it up in 2014. (Mark Anderson)
2013-12-10 18:00:00 (link to chat)Any SPs you think will breakout in 2014?
(Shawnykid23 from CT)
I have been down on him for years, but I think this might be the year that Jeff Samardzija puts it all together and finally becomes a solid #2 at the very least. If he gets the innings, Danny Salazar is another guy I really like; he could strike out a batter an inning with some pretty nice overall numbers. Zack Wheeler is another candidate. This is a guy where you should ignore the peripherals (FIP, FRA, etc.) and look at the ability. Wheeler is a potential stud. Maybe I'm a year off on him, but keep in mind that some scouts liked him better than Matt Harvey when he came up. That doesn't mean that Wheeler will be 2013 Harvey good (that's silly), but he could be a pretty fine pitcher in his own right. (Mike Gianella)
2013-12-20 14:00:00 (link to chat)Two questions actually... 1) Does Matt Harvey's profile (arsenal and mechanical profile) suggest that following a [successful] TJS surgery, he can repeat or put up a comparable line in a future season? 2) Harvey's teammate Zack Wheeler has oft been compared to Harvey (sometimes favorably!). I've noticed that his strengths seem to be a better arsenal than Harvey, but less command/control than Harvey. Is this something you see him improving, or is Harvey just that much better that Wheeler will never match his "older brother?"
(Sara from Tacoma)
1) Asking anyone to put up a line like Harvey's 2013 is a tall order, but he has all of the mechanical and stuff baselines to rediscover the magic if he comes back to 100% following TJS. He kept getting better throughout his development, which bodes extremely well for his ability to come back and make any necessary adjustments. 2) Wheeler has a bright future, but he is not in Harvey's class IMO. I prefer Harvey's stuff as well as his mechanics, and a lack of repetition is what often separates the what from the chaff in the bigs.

On the jukebox: Led Zeppelin, "Bring It On Home" (Doug Thorburn)
2013-11-22 14:00:00 (link to chat)The easiness of my mechanics help my fastball explode on hitters right? Do you think they might also land me on Dr. Andrews' table along with Matt Harvey?
(Zack Wheeler from Georgia)
Actually, your mechanics aren't really that "easy." There's a bit too much up-down with balance during the lift phase, and your arm action has a lot of extra movement during the "pick-up" phase prior to initiation of rotation. There are also times when your timing is off and you suffer from elbow-drag, and THAT could potentially land you on Dr. Andrews table. But your prognosis will not be the same as Harvey, who had all-around solid mechanics yet serves as an example of the multitude of variables that contribute to the injury equation.

On the jukebox: Aerosmith and Run DMC, "Walk This Way" (Doug Thorburn)
2013-10-30 12:00:00 (link to chat)What is the story with Royals SP John Lamb - anything left there or is he now the other side of the TJ surgery story?
(Dave from Boulder)
Hard to say. His results haven't been impressive and that includes his time in the Arizona Fall League. TJ surgery as much as it's old hat to fans and analysts, isn't a sure thing. That's a big part of the reason it's so sad to lose guys like Matt Harvey and Stephen Strasburg to TJS. We lose a year (or more) of their career, yes, and that's awful for all involved, but what happens when they step back on a mound? We don't know. We can guess, and often that guess is correct, but sometimes it's wrong. Hopefully that's not the case with Lamb. We'll see. (Matthew Kory)
2013-09-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)Matt Harvey... For dynasty purposes, good time to buy or sell?
(Sara from Tacoma)
The time to buy would've been RIGHT at the injury, but the buying period is still upon as most feel he's just delaying inevitable by forgoing surgery. I'm chief among them so I certainly wouldn't buy without a discount. (Paul Sporer)
2013-09-27 13:00:00 (link to chat)By 2015, Noah Syndergaard will be _____ than Zack Wheeler and ______ than Matt Harvey?
(Peter from NY)
I'll go worse and better, but that's misleading. I think Wheeler's time in MLB this year will give him a leg up throughout 2014 and into 2015; an advantage Syndergaard could overcome by the end of 2015, thereby surpassing Wheeler at that point. With Harvey, I'm still convinced he goes under the knife so if we assume Syndergaard is on the mound in the big leagues at the end of 2014 and Harvey is rehabbing, then I'd have to say he's "better" at that point, but now I'm just playing with words and probably getting myself in trouble. Let's just say that's a tremendous rotation. (Mark Anderson)
2013-09-04 13:00:00 (link to chat)I'm scared that Matt Harvey might already have hit his peak and will never be this good again, can you make me feel better?
(kbrown22 from NY)
Syndergaard is a very good prospect with a very impressive #rig. He's not Harvey and he's not ready, but he's a reason to be excited about the future. (Jason Parks)
2013-09-11 13:00:00 (link to chat)Will the mets ever win another world series? Thanks
(Sd from Queens)
I don't think my crystal ball is quite that good. I will say that I'm rooting like hell for a Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Noah Syndergaard 1-2-3 rotation punch in a couple years. Let's hope Harvey comes back 100% and the other two stay healthy, because how fun would that be? (Jason Cole)
2013-08-12 14:00:00 (link to chat)How much do starting pitchers save up in velocity? I look at guys like Jose Fernandez and Matt Harvey and they just air it out and I wonder how they can throw 7 innings like that.
(Brady Childs from Aunt's house in Louisiana)
It really depends on the pitcher. Some "save" it for specific situations, and others build strength throughout the game. Fernandez and Harvey rarely lose their mechanics in the effort to light up radar guns, and they each have excellent mechanical efficiency that takes the kinetic toll off of their throwing arms. The high velo has less to do with them airing it out and more to do with the ease with which they can create velo. (Doug Thorburn)
2013-08-27 13:00:00 (link to chat)Does Matt Harvey's partial UCL tear put a new wrinkle into the Kershaw Vs. Harvey CYA debate?
(jlarsen from Chicago, IL)
I think Kershaw had the edge to begin with. And yes, I suspect voters will (a) use counting stats and (b) ding Harvey for not finishing the season (Harry Pavlidis)
2013-08-27 13:00:00 (link to chat)The likelihood that Matt Harvey comes back as good in 2015(assuming he has TJS) or better? He averages 95.6 on his fastball.. That's a big strength.. But if he came back throwing 92-93.. Might not be able to get those pitches by better hitters. I know Strasuburgs velocity isn't quite as high as it was Before.. But I just hope he comes back as strong and maybe even better.
(MetsFaithful5 from The Big Apple)
Those kind of velocity drops can be death if command goes with it. If command stays the same, or even improves, no worries. (Harry Pavlidis)
2013-08-27 13:00:00 (link to chat)I know this may not be your expertise, but I'm bored at work and will ask anyway. With Matt Harvey as the latest of flamethrowers going down with elbow problems, is there a point where there becomes such a thing as having too much fastball velocity? It seems like the human arm just isn't designed to throw 99 mph, particularly as a starting pitcher. Would teams be better served to look for and value the best 94-96 guys (who, just anecdotally, feel to me like they hold up better) with the best life/movement and invest their resources there?
(sitrick2 from Minneapolis, MN)
guys who don't throw hard get hurt, too. I say look for velocity, command and makeup. Put them together as best you can. (Harry Pavlidis)
2013-07-19 13:00:00 (link to chat)Truly, there can be no better taunt to one's opponent after a particularly invigorating victory in fantasy than "You just got LITT up!," correct?
(Louis Litt from Pearson, Darby & Associates)
Obviously strong! I'm sure Harvey would take Matt Harvey very early so his team name could be Harvey, Spectre, and Associates. (Paul Sporer)
2013-07-19 13:00:00 (link to chat)Office Dynasty League: Harvey offered me R. Zimmerman, Braun, Cueto, and X for my Miggy and Matt Harvey. I want out of the doghouse, but I want to win this league... any good move here?
(Mike Ross from Harvey's Dog House)
LOL, if helping with his cases doesn't work, then trade him Harvey. Play to his vanity. Focus on Rachel, though. Just as a general rule. (Paul Sporer)
2013-07-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)Do you think Matt Harvey's success is sustainable, or will he become more hittable as he loses velocity to advancing age?
(Ken from New York)
Harvey has excellent release point extension, and this will serve him well even as his velocity degrades with age. He has an excellent mix of pitches that will also allow him to age gracefully, and the deep release point acts to disguise his stuff until late in the flight path. His change-up has been particularly tough to hit this season, and he has command of two distinct breaking balls. Buy, buy, buy! (Doug Thorburn)
2013-07-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)Is there any pitcher in baseball for whom you would trade Matt Harvey (taking cost into consideration)?
(Marc from Brooklyn)
Considering cost? Nope. Guy is crazy good. (Doug Thorburn)
2013-06-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)I've been offered straight up Stephen Strasberg for my Matt Harvey. 8 teams keeper league, keepers for up to three years (no cost). Pull the trigger on this?
(jrbdmb from New Jersey)
This reminds me a little bit of the Profar/Taveras where you're just better off keeping and living or dying with your guy instead of making the move and then regretting it if it doesn't work out. That's another reason Profar/Tav will never happen. (Paul Sporer)
2013-06-18 13:00:00 (link to chat)Is Corey Kluber throwing a curve or a changeup? I'm confused.
(Klubes from Cleveland)
confusion is a natural state. In unrelated news, Matt Harvey just hit 100 on the Turner Field "gun" (Harry Pavlidis)
2013-05-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)Matt Harvey has had great success with the high fastball. Do you think he is at risk of losing some of his luster as his velo drops with age, or does he have the assortment of pitches to be a sustained ace?
(Melville from New York, NY)
WHAT DO YOU MEAN HE WILL LOSE VELO AS HE AGES WHERE DO YOU GET THESE IDEAS. Oh. Right. Ahem. Sorry. High fastballs in particular are dangerous as speed declines, yes. But his stuff his nasty. Three good secondary pitches and the odds are he'll add another pitch or two as he ages (cutter and/or sinker). He seems to have the pitchability and the competitive drive to adapt. He'll have to prove over time that he can do more than power past guys, but ain't no harm in doing that while he can. (Harry Pavlidis)
2013-04-25 12:30:00 (link to chat)thinking about offering the Matt Harvey owner Shelby Miller and Angel Pagan in a 12-team mixer. thoughts?
(Anthony from nyc)
Can a trade be both sell high and buy high? Both Harvey and Miller have looked great, but Harvey's looked a bit better. If we're talking just for this season, I don't have a problem with that offer. (Ben Lindbergh)
2013-04-16 20:00:00 (link to chat)Would you rather have Matt Harvey or Jordan Zimmerman longterm in a keeper league?
(Joe from Seattle)
Harvey. (Bret Sayre)
2013-04-18 14:00:00 (link to chat)Which players have been the biggest surprise for you in the early going? Do you think those players will continue to do well, or is an early-season fluke?
(Mike from Michigan)
Jean Segura has probably been the most pleasant surprise, and while I don't expect him to maintain a .380s batting average, it sure looks like the Brewers have found a long-term solution at shortstop. On the pitching side, Matt Harvey and Jose Fernandez have been immensely impressive-more than anyone could really have expected, especially for Fernandez, who is only 20. I'm looking forward to seeing if he can keep it going against a better offense in a tough park tonight. (Daniel Rathman)
2013-04-12 14:00:00 (link to chat)A lot of recent raves about Matt Harvey. both for his stuff and his mechanics. What do you see for him?
(Frank from Denver)
I really like the mechanics, and I love the stuff. He has a great combination of natural arm strength and excellent torque to hit the high 90's. I really like his delivery, with above-average grades across the board on his Mechanics Report Card. Nothing stands out as elite, mechanically, but nearly every element is plus. He is a gem.

On the jukebox: Michael Jackson, "Smooth Criminal" (Doug Thorburn)
2013-03-20 11:00:00 (link to chat)in a 20teams 5SP slots league where QS is a factor, am I shaky going into season w/ Homer Bailey, Matt Harvey, Kris Medlen, Andy Pettitte and Rick Porcello as rotation?
(Jim from Seattle)
Yes. (Cory Schwartz)
2013-03-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)Z, thanks for the chat. From what players are you expecting nice breakouts in 2013?
(Jon KK from Elkhart, IN)
I picked Salvador Perez in our Lineup Card on breakout players, but this list should give you a pretty good idea of some of the candidates.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19600

I also like Matt Harvey very much unless you count last year as a breakout or think top prospects can't "break out." (Zachary Levine)
2013-03-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thanks for the chat! Could you rank these following players on chances of a breakout season: Kyle Seager, Brandon Belt, Todd Frazier, Ben Revere, Matt Harvey, and Mike Moustakas?
(Derek from Kansas City)
Harvey
Belt
Moustakas
Revere
Seager
Frazier (Zachary Levine)
2013-03-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)Would you rather have S.Santos or M.Harvey? Santos seemingly now has the leg up on closing in Toronto, but I would like to acquire another starting pitcher.
(Jimmy from PA)
Harvey. This is a no-brainer. You can find saves on the waiver wire, while Matt Harvey is a valuable asset. (Harry Pavlidis)
2013-03-01 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hi Doug, thanks for the chat. You mentioned Jordan Zimmermann and Jarrod Parker as the breakout candidates. What do you think of Matt Harvey and Kris Medlen? Their 2012 season primed in the second half, do you see sustainable success? Please also include Homer Bailey in the conversation if you can.
(Mounting Point from Fantasyland)
Huge fan of Harvey. His mechanics are very advanced, with solid grades across the board, and his stuff is beyond legit. I probably should have mentioned him among the breakout guys.

Medlen has a strong delivery that he repeats exceedingly well, though I can't call him a breakout candidate, for the simple reason that I can't imagine him doing better in 2013 than what he showed us while he was on the mound in 2012. He does have some minor inefficiencies with torque and posture that could be improved, but he just has to regress, right? (Doug Thorburn)
2013-03-01 13:00:00 (link to chat)Who do you take for a dynasty league, Jose Fernandez or Matt Harvey?
(Bill Compton from Bon Temps)
Harvey, because he is already doing it in the majors. Too much can happen between what Fernandez is now and what he will be when he is making an impact on your team's bottom line. But I admit that I think that dynasty leaguers tend to over-rate very young players who are years from knowing whether their skills can translate to the majors.

On the jukebox: Rage Against the Machine, "Ashes in the Fall" (Doug Thorburn)
2013-02-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Jealous that a guy in my dynasty points league just got Craig, Austin Jackson and Matt Harvey for Stanton and JR Graham. Tell me who won that, so I can cover my sour grapes with taunts for the loser.
(captnamerca from FL)
I'd still take the Craig side and not just because of my known love of his game. It's a fair trade so I'm not sure you can crush anyone. The guy getting Stanton paid the premium that a stud like that costs in a league where you get to keep him forever. (Paul Sporer)
2013-01-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)Which of these young starters has the best year in 2013: AJ Griffin, Matt Harvey, Drew Smyly, and Jose Quintana?
(Paul from DC)
I like Matt Harvey by a wide margin. He's easily got the best stuff of the bunch, and his debut was electric. Quintana/Smyly/Griffin are back of the rotation types and they lack the sizzle of Harvey. (Josh Shepardson)
2012-12-28 13:00:00 (link to chat)What can I expect from Matt Harvey next season? He really held his own during his rookie campaign.
(Derek from New York)
Howdy Derek. It's another small sample, but I like the fact that Harvey's K/9 increased on joining the big club. That being said, he's facing the best hitters in the world now, and they will adjust. My guess is that he may hit a bump or two in the road but that ultimately he has enough ability to miss bats that he'll be just fine. There's a lot to like. (Geoff Young)
2012-12-28 13:00:00 (link to chat)Keeper League question: I was offered Yoenis Cespedes for Matt Harvey, Archie Bradley and George Springer. Should I pull the trigger?
(Brett from Toronto)
I'm the wrong person to ask on account of my undying affection for Cespedes. I'd probably do it. Harvey and Bradley could be awfully good, but Cespedes is already there. (Geoff Young)
2012-09-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)Matt Harvey is pitching lights out for the Mets. Is he pitching over his head until the rest of the league reads his scouting report or is his production to date fairly indicative of his future value?
(Paul from DC)
He will fall back a bit, but he's a very good pitcher that has all the necessary components to find a home as a 2/3 starter. (Jason Parks)
2012-05-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)I have most of my FAAB budgeted in my keeper league for late-season prospect call ups. Guys like Hultzen, Bauer, Skaggs, and Arenado are all taken already. Who's a good bet to be called up that's not on everyone's radar (that's worth a sizable bid)?
(Don H. from Oak Park)
I'm assuming you can't bid on guys in-season until they're recalled? Anthony Rizzo, Jed Gyorko, Julio Teheran are pretty good bets for call-ups this year. Maybe Andrelton Simmons if Pastornicky fails. Leonys Martin could be up at some point late, especially if we see some Texas injuries (Hamilton and Cruz are bound to go down at some point). Wil Myers could get a September call-up. Matt Harvey could too. (Derek Carty)
2012-04-19 14:00:00 (link to chat)What are the chances the Mets trade David Wright after his exceptional start to the season, coupled with the fact the Mets look better than expected
(Alex Arthur from Tufts University)
Multiple questions about David Wright, so I'll chime in on this one. I do think the Mets should cash him in, because -- despite the solid start -- this is not a contending team this season, and it probably won't be until Zack Wheeler and Matt Harvey are anchoring the rotation.

One tricky issue, though, might be finding a landing spot. Most of the contending teams are set at third base, and while there's sure to be a market for a player like Wright -- especially considering that his 2013 club option makes him more than a rental -- the market might not have quite as much demand as Sandy Alderson would want to be working with. (Daniel Rathman)
2012-04-03 12:00:00 (link to chat)Do you project either Zack Wheeler or Matt Harvey to be a legitimate ace of a pitching staff (for instance Lincecum level production)?
(Tim from Florida)
Tim, I'm not sure that "Lincecum level production" is a fair barometer... I'll be thrilled if both guys take the ball every fifth day in New York. If they do, we'll be happy with the results in the long run. (Paul DePodesta)


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