Biographical

Aaron Nola PPhillies

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2019 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 26)

IP	ERA	WHIP	SO	W	L	SV	WARP
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Birth Date	6-4-1993
Height	6' 2"
Weight	200 lbs

Age	31 years, 11 months, 10 days
Bats	R
Throws	R

: 1.62015
: 3.32016
: 4.42017
: 6.62018
: 2.92019
proj

WARP Summary

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MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA..
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shown —Click to hide.

YEAR	Team	G	GS	IP	W	L	H	BB	SO	HR	PPF	H/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/9	GB%	BABIP	WHIP	FIP	ERA	cFIP	DRA	DRA-	WARP
2015	PHI	13	13	77.7	6	2	74	19	68	11	93	8.6	2.2	1.3	7.9	0%	.289	1.20	4.06	3.59	91	3.35	78.4	1.6
2016	PHI	20	20	111.0	6	9	116	29	121	10	90	9.4	2.4	0.8	9.8	57%	.334	1.31	3.12	4.78	75	2.74	60.6	3.3
2017	PHI	27	27	168.0	12	11	154	49	184	18	97	8.3	2.6	1.0	9.9	50%	.309	1.21	3.29	3.54	80	3.22	68.5	4.4
2018	PHI	33	33	212.3	17	6	149	58	224	17	94	6.3	2.5	0.7	9.5	52%	.251	0.97	2.97	2.37	76	2.60	58.2	6.6
2019	PHI	34	34	202.3	12	7	176	80	229	27	102	7.8	3.6	1.2	10.2	51%	.295	1.27	3.98	3.87	86	3.46	71.0	5.1
Career		127	127	771.3	53	35	669	235	826	83	96	7.8	2.7	1.0	9.6	52%	.293	1.17	3.43	3.49	81	3.06	66.2	21.0

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shown —Click to hide.

YEAR	Team	Lg	LG	G	GS	IP	W	L	H	BB	SO	HR	PPF	H/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/9	GB%	BABIP	WHIP	FIP	ERA	cFIP	DRA	DRA-
2014	CLR	A+	FSL	7	6	31.3	2	3	24	5	30	4	99	6.9	1.4	1.1	8.6	0%	.244	0.93	3.60	3.16	89	2.81	59.4
2014	REA	AA	EAS	5	5	24.0	2	0	25	5	15	4	105	9.4	1.9	1.5	5.6	0%	.284	1.25	4.89	2.63	108	4.92	104.1
2015	PHI	MLB	NL	13	13	77.7	6	2	74	19	68	11	93	8.6	2.2	1.3	7.9	0%	.289	1.20	4.06	3.59	91	3.35	78.4
2015	REA	AA	EAS	12	12	76.7	7	3	59	9	59	4	100	6.9	1.1	0.5	6.9	0%	.258	0.89	2.88	1.88	81	2.91	63.9
2015	LEH	AAA	INT	6	6	32.7	3	1	38	9	33	3	92	10.5	2.5	0.8	9.1	0%	.365	1.44	3.15	3.58	86	5.00	109.6
2016	PHI	MLB	NL	20	20	111.0	6	9	116	29	121	10	90	9.4	2.4	0.8	9.8	57%	.334	1.31	3.12	4.78	75	2.74	60.6
2017	PHI	MLB	NL	27	27	168.0	12	11	154	49	184	18	97	8.3	2.6	1.0	9.9	50%	.309	1.21	3.29	3.54	80	3.22	68.5
2017	LEH	AAA	INT	2	2	10.3	1	0	6	1	10	0	99	5.2	0.9	0.0	8.7	65%	.231	0.68	1.69	0.87	72	1.89	40.2
2018	PHI	MLB	NL	33	33	212.3	17	6	149	58	224	17	94	6.3	2.5	0.7	9.5	52%	.251	0.97	2.97	2.37	76	2.60	58.2
2019	PHI	MLB	NL	34	34	202.3	12	7	176	80	229	27	102	7.8	3.6	1.2	10.2	51%	.295	1.27	3.98	3.87	86	3.46	71.0

Plate Discipline

YEAR	Pits	Zone%	Swing%	Contact%	Z-Swing%	O-Swing%	Z-Contact%	O-Contact%	SwStr%
2015	1111	0.4689	0.4320	0.7833	0.5662	0.3136	0.8746	0.6378	0.2167
2016	1786	0.5006	0.4155	0.7493	0.5157	0.3150	0.8482	0.5872	0.2507
2017	2669	0.5148	0.4432	0.7346	0.5662	0.3127	0.8213	0.5679	0.2654
2018	3212	0.4978	0.4673	0.7202	0.5872	0.3484	0.8115	0.5676	0.2798
2019	3331	0.4449	0.4407	0.7330	0.5493	0.3537	0.8415	0.5979	0.2670
Career	12109	0.4848	0.4438	0.7370	0.5597	0.3339	0.8331	0.5853	0.2630

Injury History — No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On	Date Off	Transaction	Days	Games	Side	Body Part	Injury	Severity	Surgery Date	Reaggravation
No data available in table

Compensation

Year	Team	Salary
2015	PHI	$
2016	PHI	$517,500
2017	PHI	$544,000
2018	PHI	$573,000
2019	PHI	$4,500,000
2020	PHI	$8,500,000
2021	PHI	$12,250,000
2022	PHI	$15,500,000
2023	PHI	$16,000,000
2024	PHI	$24,571,429
2025	PHI	$24,571,429
2026	PHI	$24,571,429
2027	PHI	$24,571,429
2028	PHI	$24,571,429
2029	PHI	$24,571,429
2030	PHI	$24,571,429

Years	Description	Salary
9 yr	Previous	$82,955,929
2019	Current	$24,571,429
10 yr	Pvs + Cur	$107,527,358
5 yr	Future	$122,857,145
15 yr	Total	$230,384,503

Service Time	Agent	Contract Status
8 y 76 d	Paragon Sports	7 years/$172M (2024-30)

Details

7 years/$172M (2024-30). Re-signed by Philadelphia as a free agent 11/20/23. 24-30: $24,571,429 annually. Assignment bonus: $1M with trade in 2024 or 2025. Award bonuses: $100,000 for Cy Young award ($50,000 for second place in vote, $25,000 for third). $100,000 for WS MVP. $50,000 each for All Star, Gold Glove, LCS MVP. Perks: hotel suite on road trips.
4 years/$45M (2019-22), plus 2023 club option. Signed extension with Philadelphia 2/13/19 (avoided arbitration, $6.75M-$4.5M). $2M signing bonus. 19:$4M, 20:$8M, 21:$11.75M, 22:15M, 23:$16M club option ($4.25M buyout). Philadelphia exercised 2023 option 11/7/22. Philadelphia made $20.325M Qualifying Offer 11/6/23.
1 year/$573,000 (2018). Re-signed by Philadelphia 3/18.
1 year (2017). Re-signed by Philadelphia 3/17.
1 year/$517,500 (2016). Re-signed by Philadelphia 3/16.
1 year (2015). Contract selected by Philadelphia 7/21/15.
Drafted by Philadelphia 2014 (1-7) (LSU). $3,300,900 signing bonus (slot amount).

2019 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET

PCT	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	BABIP	WHIP	ERA	DRA	VORP	WARP
No data available in table
Weighted Mean	?	?	?	?	?	0.0	?	0	0	?	.000	0.00	0.00	?	0.0	0.0

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BP Annual Player Comments

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BP Articles

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BP Chats

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Date	Question	Answer
2020-09-16 13:00:00 (link to chat)	Craig, are the Phillies in as distinct a situation as I suspect? Their rebuild seems to lack the prospects and farm system that they had tried to create years ago by trading Cole Hamels, Ken Giles, and the rest of the former core. That has left them top heavy with great, but pricy, free agents and trades but little depth. Is it WEIRD that they haven't seen much more than Aaron Nola and Alec Bohm and maybe Rhys Hoksins emerge as future pieces? Because the Marlins look like they've lapped the Phillies. (definitely not a BP writer who likes the Phillies from uh philadelphia but)	I think that's pretty fair. Matt Winkelman had a good thread on this recently, but it's something of a byproduct of missing on the draft as badly as they have. Hoskins was a great development, and Bohm looks like a win. Spencer Howard, too. But you're looking at maybe role players out of a first-overall pick in Moniak and a top-10 selection in Haseley. It's hard to create the type of perpetual motion machine that teams want when they're not hitting on those picks as at least everyday guys. My biggest problem with Philly is that they lack depth at the major-league level. Farm systems are great, but only if they produce the depth I'm talking about or can be used to acquire it. The pitching beyond Nola and Eflin is concerning (though I'm hopeful for Howard long term), the top-end names you mention are great but there is a gaping hole if Realmuto leaves and no real plan to replace him in house (Marchan is up but probably a bit away). It is a team built for now but struggling in the here and now. That's always going to be a tough team to swallow. (Craig Goldstein)
2020-04-03 13:00:00 (link to chat)	What do you think of my 14 team 5 x 5 pitching staff? (8 pitchers per team) Enough to compete? Nola, Erod, Ryu, Maeda, Odorizzi, Chirinos, Gausman, Hand, W. Smith (Goat & Soda from Sarajevo)	I think it is competitive, but it is probably below average in a 14-team league. You do not have a SP1. Instead, you have a SP2 (Aaron Nola), two SP3 (Eduardo Rodriguez & Hyun-Jin Ryu), two SP4 (Kenta Maeda & Jake Odorizzi), and two SP5 (Yonny Chirinos & Kevin Gausman). You will probably need some overperformance to keep pace with the top teams in the league. You also may be struggling for saves as Hand is a potential midseason trade candidate (he could lose his role) and Smith is technically not a closer at the moment, though I do expect him to receive 10+ saves. (Jesse Roche)
2019-10-04 14:15:00 (link to chat)	How are the Mets going to solve their crowded roster? In particular j.d. Davis the bat seems to work -the glove not so much. Will he get regular playing time? (Mel queen from Cincinnat)	He should play 3 to 4 times a week, 400-500 PA a year. Stay away from the Mike Soroka's and Aaron Nola's of the world. (Jeffrey Paternostro)
2019-05-29 13:00:00 (link to chat)	Can a whole season be an anomaly for so many guys? So many starting pitchers still look off. We've read about the baseballs being a bit different, but why doesn't a guy like Scherzer ever experience the same troubles Aaron Nola is seeming to have? (Ron from texarkana)	Yeah, there can be single-season anomalies, sure. I think Scherzer generally has better pure stuff and can live in the zone a bit better than Nola. This is borne out in their HR/FB rates, imo, as Nola does a better job of keeping the ball on the ground, generally (they're very close this year), but Scherzer has done a better job of keeping the ball in the park. Which goes back to the article I linked to before about HRs explaining so much of ERA- (Craig Goldstein)
2018-09-18 19:00:00 (link to chat)	Who do you think the next starter is to make the Aaron Nola type jump to the elites? (Vinny from TN)	Great question. Nola wasn't exactly chopped liver in 2017, so if you're using him as a comp then you're looking for that kind of pitcher - someone who would o from being very good to top shelf. Zack Wheeler and Mike Foltynewicz are the names that jump off the page. Wheeler was great in the second half and looks like he harnessed his off-speed offerings. Folty could take a step forward with more control. (Mike Gianella)

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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC

Aaron Nola has thrown 28,364 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2015 and 2025, all of them occuring in Spring Training. In 2025, he has relied primarily on his Curve (78mph) and Fourseam Fastball (91mph), also mixing in a Sinker (90mph), Change (84mph) and Cutter (86mph). He also rarely throws a Slider (82mph).