Portrait of Aaron Nola

Aaron Nola PPhillies

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2019 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 26)
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Birth Date6-4-1993
Height6' 2"
Weight195 lbs
Age26 years, 5 months, 14 days
WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA..
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shownClick to hide.
2015 PHI MLB 13 13 77.7 6 2 0 74 19 68 11 93 8.6 2.2 1.3 7.9 0% .289 1.20 4.06 3.59 91 3.35 78.4 1.6
2016 PHI MLB 20 20 111.0 6 9 0 116 29 121 10 90 9.4 2.4 0.8 9.8 57% .334 1.31 3.12 4.78 75 2.74 60.6 3.3
2017 PHI MLB 27 27 168.0 12 11 0 154 49 184 18 97 8.3 2.6 1.0 9.9 50% .309 1.21 3.29 3.54 80 3.22 68.5 4.4
2018 PHI MLB 33 33 212.3 17 6 0 149 58 224 17 94 6.3 2.5 0.7 9.5 52% .251 0.97 2.97 2.37 76 2.60 58.2 6.6
2019 PHI MLB 34 34 202.3 12 7 0 176 80 229 27 102 7.8 3.6 1.2 10.2 51% .295 1.27 3.98 3.87 86 3.46 71.0 5.1

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
2014 CLR A+ FSL 7 6 31.3 2 3 0 24 5 30 4 99 6.9 1.4 1.1 8.6 0% .244 0.93 3.60 3.16 89 2.81 59.4
2014 REA AA EAS 5 5 24.0 2 0 0 25 5 15 4 105 9.4 1.9 1.5 5.6 0% .284 1.25 4.89 2.63 108 4.92 104.1
2015 PHI MLB NL 13 13 77.7 6 2 0 74 19 68 11 93 8.6 2.2 1.3 7.9 0% .289 1.20 4.06 3.59 91 3.35 78.4
2015 REA AA EAS 12 12 76.7 7 3 0 59 9 59 4 100 6.9 1.1 0.5 6.9 0% .258 0.89 2.88 1.88 81 2.91 63.9
2015 LEH AAA INT 6 6 32.7 3 1 0 38 9 33 3 92 10.5 2.5 0.8 9.1 0% .365 1.44 3.15 3.58 86 5.00 109.6
2016 PHI MLB NL 20 20 111.0 6 9 0 116 29 121 10 90 9.4 2.4 0.8 9.8 57% .334 1.31 3.12 4.78 75 2.74 60.6
2017 PHI MLB NL 27 27 168.0 12 11 0 154 49 184 18 97 8.3 2.6 1.0 9.9 50% .309 1.21 3.29 3.54 80 3.22 68.5
2017 LEH AAA INT 2 2 10.3 1 0 0 6 1 10 0 99 5.2 0.9 0.0 8.7 65% .231 0.68 1.69 0.87 72 1.89 40.2
2018 PHI MLB NL 33 33 212.3 17 6 0 149 58 224 17 94 6.3 2.5 0.7 9.5 52% .251 0.97 2.97 2.37 76 2.60 58.2
2019 PHI MLB NL 34 34 202.3 12 7 0 176 80 229 27 102 7.8 3.6 1.2 10.2 51% .295 1.27 3.98 3.87 86 3.46 71.0

Plate Discipline

YEAR Pits Zone% Swing% Contact% Z-Swing% O-Swing% Z-Contact% O-Contact% SwStr%
2015 1111 0.4689 0.4320 0.7833 0.5662 0.3136 0.8746 0.6378 0.2167
2016 1786 0.5006 0.4155 0.7493 0.5157 0.3150 0.8482 0.5872 0.2507
2017 2669 0.5148 0.4432 0.7346 0.5662 0.3127 0.8213 0.5679 0.2654
2018 3212 0.4978 0.4673 0.7202 0.5872 0.3484 0.8115 0.5676 0.2798
2019 3331 0.4449 0.4407 0.7330 0.5493 0.3537 0.8415 0.5979 0.2670

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation


Year Team Salary
2023 PHI $4,250,000
2022 PHI $15,500,000
2021 PHI $12,250,000
2020 PHI $8,500,000
2019 PHI $4,500,000
2018 PHI $573,000
2017 PHI $544,000
2016 PHI $517,500
2015 PHI $
3 yrPrevious$1,634,500
4 yrPvs + Cur$6,134,500
4 yrFuture$40,500,000
8 yrTotal$46,634,500


Service TimeAgentContract Status
3 y 76 dParagon Sports4 years/$45M (2019-22), 2023 option

  • 4 years/$45M (2019-22), plus 2023 club option. Signed extension with Philadelphia 2/13/19 (avoided arbitration, $6.75M-$4.5M). $2M signing bonus. 19:$4M, 20:$8M, 21:$11.75M, 22:15M, 23:$16M club option ($4.25M buyout).
  • 1 year/$0.573M (2018). Re-signed by Philadelphia 3/18.
  • 1 year (2017). Re-signed by Philadelphia 3/17.
  • 1 year/$0.5175M (2016). Re-signed by Philadelphia 3/16.
  • 1 year (2015). Contract selected by Philadelphia 7/21/15.
  • Drafted by Philadelphia 2014 (1-7) (LSU). $3.3009M signing bonus (slot amount).

2019 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET

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BP Annual Player Comments

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BP Articles

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BP Chats

2019-10-04 14:15:00 (link to chat)How are the Mets going to solve their crowded roster? In particular j.d. Davis the bat seems to work -the glove not so much. Will he get regular playing time?
(Mel queen from Cincinnat)
He should play 3 to 4 times a week, 400-500 PA a year. Stay away from the Mike Soroka's and Aaron Nola's of the world. (Jeffrey Paternostro)
2019-05-29 13:00:00 (link to chat)Can a whole season be an anomaly for so many guys? So many starting pitchers still look off. We've read about the baseballs being a bit different, but why doesn't a guy like Scherzer ever experience the same troubles Aaron Nola is seeming to have?
(Ron from texarkana)
Yeah, there can be single-season anomalies, sure. I think Scherzer generally has better pure stuff and can live in the zone a bit better than Nola. This is borne out in their HR/FB rates, imo, as Nola does a better job of keeping the ball on the ground, generally (they're very close this year), but Scherzer has done a better job of keeping the ball in the park. Which goes back to the article I linked to before about HRs explaining so much of ERA- (Craig Goldstein)
2018-09-18 19:00:00 (link to chat)Who do you think the next starter is to make the Aaron Nola type jump to the elites?
(Vinny from TN)
Great question. Nola wasn't exactly chopped liver in 2017, so if you're using him as a comp then you're looking for that kind of pitcher - someone who would o from being very good to top shelf. Zack Wheeler and Mike Foltynewicz are the names that jump off the page. Wheeler was great in the second half and looks like he harnessed his off-speed offerings. Folty could take a step forward with more control. (Mike Gianella)
2018-01-31 14:00:00 (link to chat)With the "live" ball era in full bloom it has become harder to find difference making starting pitchers. Outside of the icons we all know of do you have any breakout candiates which could become difference making pitchers. ----Away from the 4 plus eras thanks
(steve from wisconsin)
I *love* Aaron Nola. I think he's going to have a huge year. Jon Gray too. And Dinelson Lamet as a deeper option. (Mark Barry)
2017-04-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)Side A (sending): Gregory Polanco, Seth Beer (NCAA '18), Austin Beck (HS '17). Side B (sending): Eloy Jimenez, Robert Gsellman, Aaron Nola, J.B. Bukauskus (NCAA '17), Kevin Maitan. Keep forever dynasty league (5x5 + OBP, XBH... + QS, HLD). team A has Ozuna for LF, and really need pitching; Team B is loaded with pitching and needs a LF/UT (otherwise J. Upton). Fair deal? [Obviously we can draft players from HS, college, IFA guys (Ohtani, etc.).]
(Michelle from Milwaukee)
I like the deal for Side A if they're looking for pitching. I'm generally higher on Nola and Gsellman than most, and I would feel confident that you're going to get something productive out of at least one of the two. All told, I think it's a pretty fair deal. Most NCAA and HS players are so far away from producing at the major-league level, and there's so much that can happen during their development. You need to consider the impact of those players, but in terms of major league returns I feel good about it for Side A.

Now let me talk to Side B. In the short term, I'm not starting Polanco over Upton unless I really need steals. I know Upton has injury concerns, but he looked more like the player we expected him to be as last season went on. Upton gains even more value given that this is an OBP league. If your plan is to use Upton now and have Polanco for later I could see that, but don't sell him short in the present. (Eric Roseberry)
2017-03-29 14:00:00 (link to chat)Aaron Nola gets rave reviews everywhere but gets rocked everywhere he pitches... even this spring.. what gives?
(Terry from Philly)
The easy answer here is injury and bad luck, though that's not exactly satisfying. I think those have a lot to do with his struggles, particularly as a low innings count magnifies a few bad games, and his underlying skills look incredible. I think he has the makeup and the stuff to succeed of course, but just handwaving the bad results away is problematic.

If you twisted my arm, I'd say Nola is probably homer prone his whole career. The Phillies took him at 4 knowing he was a fast riser who has a ceiling as a 2 and a floor of a 4, which is a pretty savvy way to lock in value on a team that's desperate for talent. That said, that kind of player has deficiencies, and I think the longball is gonna be Nola's, talent notwithstanding. (Trevor Strunk)
2016-03-21 13:00:00 (link to chat)What kind of ceiling do you see for Aaron Nola?
(Nate from Indiana)
Nola's an interesting case, because he's got the command and the breaking ball already, so either he's going to miss bats (in which case he could be a No. 2) or not (in which case he'd still probably be a back-end starter). I think he's sort of in Chris Sale territory with the delivery at this point, where it's still scary-looking, but he's got the flexibility and athleticism to pull it off, so if he hasn't gotten hurt yet, I guess we're going to stop being scared. (Michael Baumann)
2016-03-09 19:00:00 (link to chat)Which group sucks less? Anthony Alford, Rusney Castillo, Manuel Margot, Brett Phillips, Nick Williams,Spencer Adams, Mark Appel, Dylan Cease, Josh Hader, James Kapeielian, Triston McKenzie,Vince Velasquez or Blake Swihart, Jon Singleton, Dansby Swanson, Alex Jackson, Clayton Blackburn,Tyrell Jenkins, Rob Kaminsky, Zach Lee, Keuy Mella, Justin Nicolino, Aaron Nola, Tyler Jay. God these teams are awful.
(Clark from The 19th Hole)
The first group, but you're right, but they're both bad. (Mike Gianella)
2016-03-09 19:00:00 (link to chat)What players outside the top 200 are you targeting for a potential flyer?
(Truganini from CO)
To name a few: Will Myers, Josh Reddick, Aaron Nola, Rich Hill, Jayson Werth, Ben Paulsen, and Jerad Eickhoff. (Mike Gianella)
2015-07-28 18:00:00 (link to chat)Could you rank these guys for future careers? Steven Matz, Carlos Rodon, Eduardo Rodriguez, Aaron Nola, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Vincent Velasquez. Any of these guys worry you and/or are they all in the same tier?
(ColeWhittier from Pasadena)
This is a tremendous and fun group of arms. Nola, Gonzalez, Rodon, Velasquez, E-Rod, Matz. The one who still scares me the most is Rodon. There's a good chance he doesn't fulfill his insane upside because of the command issues stemming from his delivery. While Matz and E-Rod are a tier below for me they are both very valuable arms that could be middle rotation stalwarts. (Mauricio Rubio)
2015-07-06 13:00:00 (link to chat)Lots of fast risers on this list. Who are some of your best bets for continuing their ascent to the top of this list or to the majors this season? Is it high tool types such as Manuel Margot or Nick Williams or more polished types like an Aaron Nola?
(LoyalRoyal from Kansas, USA)
I can't imagine Nola goes a whole lot further up, mainly because he'll probably be in the majors before the season is out. This could easily be his last list.

Margot is a candidate to rise, as is his fellow organization-mate Rafael Devers. That guy may have the best hit tool/power combo on this list. Williams has also made great strides this season, showing a rare improvement in his approach and patience and even converting me. I've been one of the most outspoken guys against Williams in the past simply because we almost never see this kind of change from a guy this far into his development, but far be it for me to ignore it when it happens and kudos to Williams for figuring it out, at least to some extent. I'm in. (Jeff Moore)
2015-06-16 20:00:00 (link to chat)Thoughts on Aaron Nola's upside? Any changes in your thoughts of him with the good start to the season?
(Jackman from Cheers)
It appears I was too low on him, though his contextual factors are disastrous. Seems like a real life No. 3 starter and fantasy No. 4/5 guy to me. (Ben Carsley)
2015-05-22 13:00:00 (link to chat)How soon does Aaron Nola get called up to the bigs?
(Kingpin from Grinnell, IA)
He could be up right now, and maybe even last year (although he threw a lot last season and that wouldn't have made much sense considering the Phillies were not competing). It's not going to be long, I would imagine. He was one of the more advanced arms when selected last year, and the stuff is honestly better than some give credit. I think he can be a mid-rotation guy that has 3 above-average to plus pitches. How many pitchers in the minors have an arsenal like that, along with plus command? The answer is "Not Many". I am really excited to watch him pitch in the majors. (Tucker Blair)
2015-05-22 13:00:00 (link to chat)I'm in an NL Only League and can only hold on to one, Zach Lee or Aaron Nola. Who do I keep for the rest of this season?
(TylerDurden from Paper St.)
Aaron Nola, and I don't have a damn clue about Fantasy. And our Fantasy team can attest to that. (Tucker Blair)
2015-04-29 20:00:00 (link to chat)Could Aaron Nola be up by the ASB? He is as advanced as they come and is doing Nola things with a 18/2 K:BB rate in AA with a good 2.55 ERA. Nobody could be blocking him by the trade deadline as I iamgine Hamels and Harang are gone.
(Charles from NYC)
I think we see Nola in August, but he'd probably be ready in another month or so (if he's not now). (Bret Sayre)
2015-01-08 12:00:00 (link to chat)Will Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez and/or Aaron Nola be able to claim a spot in the Phillies rotation? Will either of them be league-average in that ballpark?
(Kingpin from Grinnell, IA)
I think Nola breaks with the team. Gonzalez has a shot too, but Nola was probably MLB-ready when he was drafted.

Gonzalez needs to be fully stretched out as a starter right? That takes time so AAA seems likely. I think Nola will be better than league average and Gonzalez might be a notch below. (Jeff Long)
2014-10-31 13:00:00 (link to chat)Tyler Kolek or Aaron Nola
(Scott from AZ)
Aaron Nola. Give me the guy that is close to the majors and has a mid-rotation ceiling that is easy to envision him obtaining it. Kolek is a good talent, but that's a long way from forming. (Tucker Blair)
2014-09-10 12:00:00 (link to chat)SP Aaron Nola seems to me to be low to mid rotation starter ala Mike Leake, is that fair or is there more upside?
(Phillyguy from Iowa)
I think that is fair. Nola is a major league pitcher, no doubt about it. However, he realistic role is more of that caliber.

I do think it is important to note that he logged a ton of innings this year, and he was still able to hold his ground at AA. He's a very talented pitcher, and I think we may be underselling him at times. I loved this selection for the Phillies. Excellent pickup for them. (Tucker Blair)
2014-08-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)I should probably risk the Atlanta rush hour on Friday and drive up to the Gwinnett stadium to see Carlos Rodon strike out AAA-Braves, right? I'm not sure I've ever seen a grade-80 slider.
(RatedRookie from Atlanta)
I love seeing prospects so I'm the wrong guy to ask. I live 20 minutes from Trenton and am very tempted to go see Aaron Nola on Friday. (Mike Gianella)
2014-09-03 14:00:00 (link to chat)Aaron Nola seems to be pretty much a Mike Leake style pitcher solid but never will be great. Agree or disagree?
(mdotmorris22 from Minnesota)
Nola could miss more bats than Leake, and I believe his ceiling is a bit higher. He's got plenty of pitchability, funk, and gall. I'm a big fan, and he should be in the Phillies rotation in '15. (Jordan Gorosh)
2014-08-04 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hi Jeff. Who do you think will be the first 2014 draftee to appear in the major leagues? Rodon? Nova? somebody else?
(wade from st. louis)
Either Aaron Nola or Branden Finnegan. The Phillies and Royals seem pretty hell-bent on getting something out of those guys quickly, perhaps before the general managers who drafted them no longer work for the team. (Jeff Moore)
2014-06-05 14:00:00 (link to chat)Which players drafted today could we see up in the Majors before the end of the season?
(Sheila from Daly City, CA)
Most likel options would be Nick Burdi, Nick Howard, Aaron Nola, maybe Brandon Finnegan.

Nick Gordon going fifth overall to the Twins. (Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris)
2014-05-30 12:00:00 (link to chat)What am I missing on Aaron Nola? I haven't heard/seen anything on him going very high, but he seems to have a complete package with #2 upside, or am I overestimating him?
(Kingpin from Grinnell, IA)
I think he's closer to a really good #3 than a #2, but I don't think you're missing anything. He throws out of a low slot, doesn't have great size, and is right handed. It's a non-traditional profile that carries job security risk if you're a decision maker in charge of investing 3/4/5 million dollars in a player. I think it's as simple as that. (Pre-Draft Chat with Nick J. Faleris)
2014-06-16 13:00:00 (link to chat)If you had to pick one guy out of this years draft to have the best combination of MLB impact and ETA, who would you choose and why?
(Ben from Baltimore)
Aaron Nola is the best combination of the two. He's not just a safe pick, but has some ceiling too, but should also move quickly. (Jeff Moore)
2013-11-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)What are your thoughts on two 2014 draft guys who did not pitch this summer: Aaron Nola and Mike Cederoth?
(Mario66 from Pittsburgh )
Potential first rounders. Cederoth is a BIG arm -- will sit mid- to upper-90s and carry it late, touching triple digits. Will flash a plus breaker but generally the secondaries lag. Nola is a weighty FB guy that creates a tough angle out of a low slot. CH is ahead of the breaking ball. Both might wind up in the pen but will be given the opportunity to start. (Nick J. Faleris)
2013-01-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)Who is the #2 guy for 2014 (assuming Rodon is 1), Jeff Hoffman?
(Daniel from Cambridge)
Sure, along with other super early candidates, like Alex Jackson (Rancho Bernardo HS, Calif.), Derek Fisher (UVA), Aaron Nola (LSU), and Nick Gordon (Olympia HS, Fla.)? (Nick Faleris)

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