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Chat: Mike Gianella

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Tuesday September 18, 2018 7:00 PM ET chat session with Mike Gianella.


Mike is the lead fantasy writer at Baseball Prospectus and co-host of the fantasy podcast, Flags Fly Forever.

Mike Gianella: 13 days of fantasy baseball left! It's the most exciting time of the year! I love exclamation points! Here's another one!

Dusty (Colorado): Can I get an update on your thoughts on Wander Javier and his upside?

Mike Gianella: Javier was shut down in May and I think I did one of these last in June or July. so it's the same old song. the injury doesn't impact his upside at all. Javier could be better than Royce Lewis. If everything breaks right for the Twins, they're going to have a hell of middle infield.

Charlene (Wisconsin ): I recently looked at what Carlos Rincon did in High A this year. 220 WRC+, .491 ISO, .818 SLG, and a .513 WOBA. I know it was only 131 PA, but WOW!. Any chance he's a guy trending up in prospect circles?

Mike Gianella: He's getting noticed; he was profiled a few weeks ago by Eddy Almaguer in our FAAB Deep League Report. The walk rate is what made me sit up and take notice; even when he wasn't hitting at A-ball he had a decent .331 OBP. It's only 131 at bats but I'm somewhat more interested than I was before.

rk7878 (Phoenix): What are you hearing about Neidert of Miami?

Mike Gianella: Same as always. Somehow getting by with a below average fastball but now that he's doing it at AA there are more believers he could be a capable back-end starter in the majors.

Antonio Cabello (NY): Am I a top 100 fantasy prospect yet? If not, when will I be?

Mike Gianella: Not yet. I'd like to see how you recover from your shoulder injury and if the power is still there before even considering it.

Denyi Reyes (Boston): I was dominant this year. How far off a top 100 am I?

Mike Gianella: You have a command profile so I'd have to see some success in the upper minors before considering it.

Carlos Rincon (LA): Am I fake or for real?

Mike Gianella: I think you're legit, but the strikeouts are always going to be there.

Drew Waters (Atlanta): I think I'm a top 50 or so prospect for dynasty league purposes. Agree?

Mike Gianella: As a prospect, that sounds about right. Maybe toward the bottom of the top 50, but sure, why not?

Roy (Bay): How would you rank Adalberto Mondesi in a dynasty format?

Mike Gianella: (shakes 8-ball) ask again later.

Man, I'm dammed no matter what I say. The ceiling is Top 50, the floor is 200-250. You can split the difference and rank Mondesi at 150 but that just means you're not invested. I love the tools and think he could steal 50 but I don't have any faith in that .290 average and think pitchers will adjust in 2019. I'm going to say 125.

Vinny (TN): Who do you think the next starter is to make the Aaron Nola type jump to the elites?

Mike Gianella: Great question. Nola wasn't exactly chopped liver in 2017, so if you're using him as a comp then you're looking for that kind of pitcher - someone who would o from being very good to top shelf. Zack Wheeler and Mike Foltynewicz are the names that jump off the page. Wheeler was great in the second half and looks like he harnessed his off-speed offerings. Folty could take a step forward with more control.

Jon (Richmond): Nimmo has pretty good numbers this year, what do you think of him in a keeper/dynasty format?

Mike Gianella: He's a solid player whose fantasy stats might not play up to his real life abilities, especially in Roto formats. I'm not sold on him ever hitting more than 20-25 homers and while I think the AVG could improve I kind of see Nimmo is a mid-tier OF in deeper mixed formats.

Troy (sd): I was just offered Brendan Rodgers for Adalberto Mondesi in a dynasty league. I have to say no right?

Mike Gianella: I'd pass. I like Rodgers but Mondesi has shown enough in speed alone that you can't do that.

zac gallen (miami florida): do you think i can be ace?

Mike Gianella: I doubt it.

Darren (nyc): Is Adalberto Mondesi a top 50 player in redraft leagues next season?

Mike Gianella: Could he earn it? Sure. Will I pay it? No. There's too much bust in the boom/bust here to pay that price. I'd rather be wrong at that price and let someone else take the risk.

Rich (New Jersey): Hi Mike, in a 16 Team Dynasty League I have one 4 year contract and two 3 year contracts left, who would you keep, Jo Adell, Drew Waters, Luis Urias, Chris Paddack. Who would you sign to the 4yr? Thanks

Mike Gianella: I'd drop Waters. Adell gets the 4-year.

Buddy (Peoria, IL): Does Royce Lewis see significant time in the majors next year?

Mike Gianella: No. He turns 20 in June. He could certainly hold his own if he was promoted mid-year but unless there's a big breakout I'd bet against anything more than a September call up, at best. Given what happened to Buxton, the Twins will hold onto the service time unless they're contending.

Sam (NY): Sooo Jeff McNeil. Looks like at least a 2.5/3.0 WAR guy, right?

Mike Gianella: Sounds reasonable. Could even be a 3.0-3.5. Reminds me of Cesar Hernandez in that everyone will write McNeil off because he isn't a big time power or speed threat but the guy can play ball.

rk7878 (WATERLOO): What is the time frame for Daz Cameron being the starting CF for the tigers

Mike Gianella: He'll be up at some point in 2019.

Antonio Cabello (NY): I will be a top ____ prospect by the end of the 2019 season.

Mike Gianella: 45

Miguel Vargas (Los Angeles): I had an incredible 140 PA run in rookie ball this year and started popping up on prospect radars. Then I had a disastrous 89 PA at A-ball. So... am I a legit prospect or not?

Mike Gianella: Probably. You're just 18, so the "disastrous" A-ball stint isn't a hindrance.

Carl (Baltimore): Pick a prospect: Blake Rutherford or Carlos Rincon?

Mike Gianella: Rincon

Carl (Baltimore): Pick a prospect, part 2: Zac Gallen or Connor Wong?

Mike Gianella: Gallen

nschaef (NYC): Fill in the blank: Pete Alonso is ____% of Rhys Hoskins.

Mike Gianella: 65? He obviously could be higher (80/85?) but I'm reluctant to put an aggressive grade on a hitter who did most of his damage in Vegas.

Gerald (Canada): Do you like prospects? Baseball prospects, to be clear.

Mike Gianella: I do.

Wait, there are other prospects?

JT (Mets): How long until Dom Smith for Ryne Stanek happens?

Mike Gianella: June 17, 2022.

bob (pa): How good can Ian Anderson be? Is he a potential #1 in your mind? Does Wil Smith have the stuff and the opportunity to be the Giants closer again next year? Thx

Mike Gianella: He could be. That's the ceiling. Smith has the stuff to close, sure. I don't see him as a top shelf guy, though, and the Giants might want to get their money's worth from Melancon.

Mike (Albany): Which Met has watched "How High" the most times, and how has that impacted their particular level of Metsiness?

Mike Gianella: It's clearly Gsellman. deGrom cut his hair after realizing that this move was "just for teens" and Gsellman shook his head and muttered something about "the man"

Charlie (San jose): How high does mondesi go in drafts next year?

Mike Gianella: He's going to go in the top 75 in redrafts.

Ch4351 (Santa Clara ): Not that the season is about over, why have been your biggest fantasy takeaways from the season?

Mike Gianella: 1) steals are at even more of a premium than usual. 2) don't pay for mid-tier starters...innings and opportunities for wins/QS are dropping. 3) tanking is making it difficult to buy guys like Vlad Jr. and Eloy in redraft formats.

Charlene (Wisconsin): I recently looked at what Carlos Rincon did in High A this year. 220 WRC+, .491 ISO, .818 SLG, and a .513 WOBA. I know it was only 131 PA, but WOW!. Any chance he's a guy trending up in prospect circles?

Mike Gianella: deja vu

Charlene (Wisconsin ): That Eddy Almaguer link didnt go to a Rincon article

Mike Gianella: i didn't realize it would have linked to anything. But here you go: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/article/42497/tales-from-the-deep-dynasty-faab-report-for-week-23/

Carl (St Louis): Has Michal Chavis put behind his PED concerns with the sample size from this year? Power looks legitimate.

Mike Gianella: Who knows? My grand PED theory is in the testing era the power benefit isn't nearly as large as it was when McGwire and Sosa were (*allegedly*) juicing. So, yeah, the power is probably legit.

Ch4351 (Santa clara): Thanks for all the content and knowledge you’ve dropped this year! What is your favorite piece or series you wrote this year?

Mike Gianella: I enjoyed the piece I did last Friday that sounded like letters from an old timey soldier.

Ronald Acuña (ATL): Am I the best player ever?

Mike Gianella: Not yet.

Dearns (Wigan, UK): Who do I keep in my dynasty league at the end of the year? Michael Conforto or Mallex Smith?

Mike Gianella: Conforto.

Troy (Kansas City): Can Thomas Szapuck bounce back from injury and be an impact starter?

Mike Gianella: He could. I'd like to see him throw an inning post surgery before venturing an opinion on this. Zach wheeler did it after that kind of layoff but comps like this are bad.

Mark (Ohio): Francisco Morales really seemed to come into his own at the end of the season, does he have the upside to be a top starter?

Mike Gianella: Lot of upside. I like the size and feel he could grow into the frame. The slider is great and he tops out at 97 MPH on the heater. He could get there, so from an "upside" standpoint, sure.

Accudart (VT): Muncy, Aguilar...for Scoresheet, can they duplicate? Margot and Brinson, keepers if rebuilding..same format, thanks

Mike Gianella: Aguilar, sure. Feel like Muncy would have to play out of his mind for a second consecutive year. I'd say yes to Brinson on a rebuild.

jgaztambide (Louisville): On a scale of 1-10, how would you describe your level of excitement for Wander S Franco: 1 Behind the scenes extras on the Dowton Abbey DVD 5 finding you had more left over Thai food in the fridge than you thought 10 the first time you saw *that* scene with Denise Richards in cult classic Wild Things

Mike Gianella: I've never seen Downton Abbey or Wild things. I'll go with a 7.

Frank (Oregon): What do you see in the future for St Louis Elehuris Montero? Seems to have a good year for a teenager in full season.

Mike Gianella: He'll probably hit a bunch of home runs and struggle with batting average and strikeouts iven his current approach. He's young, as you point out, and could be more than that.

Joe (TBD): Earlier this year I traded away a starting pitcher on a Sunday so someone could stream him, and then got him to trade him back to me later that day. Essentially I rented a player to another team and decided their matchup for a small amount of value. Is this OK?

Mike Gianella: if it's legal in your rules, yeah, but your commissioner should fix that loophole for 2019.

Mets Fan (Yemen): Thoughts on Ronny Mauricio? Is he a potential top 100 guy?

Mike Gianella: Born in 2001? My first thought is I feel like I'm 1000 years old.

He can hit from both sides, puts the ball in the air, and could grow into some power. Future won't be at short if he fills out.

Mike Gianella: Thanks to everyone for joining the chat. Lots of great questions. Good luck in all your races/playoffs!

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