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Chat: Jeffrey Paternostro

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday October 04, 2019 2:15 PM ET chat session with Jeffrey Paternostro.


Jeffrey Paternostro is Baseball Prospectus' Lead Prospect Writer and co-host of BP's new prospect podcast: Three-Quarters Delivery.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Today's tea is a Frisco Cocktail, which is not tea, but if you are all caught up on Five and Dive, seems appropriate.

Lougle (Long Island): Do you think Nolan Jones can make the jump next year and produce offensively at the MLB level for Cleveland? If not what do you need to see from him to get there?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He's very boom or bust, something reflected in Ricky's recent eyewitness of him in the AFL. It's going to be a question of how much of the raw power he can get into play against advanced minors arms given the swing and approach. My main concern is still his having to move off third. Puts an awful lot of pressure on the bat.

The Colonel (Pasadena, CA): What do you make of Sam Hilliard?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'm not shocked he went off for a month playing his home games at Coors. He's got real game power and he's more quick-twitch than you'd think. I still question if the swing plays long term against major league arms, at least as an everyday guy, but given that he is legit athletic enough to fake center field, there's a major league role for him.

Marcus (Long Island): If Zack Wheeler accepts the QO, and the Mets prefer the spend the $16MM elsewhere, would that contract have any trade value and if so, how much?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Sure, although not a ton given his injury history and the sole year of control. Mets would probably be better off using it to leverage a 3 or 4 year deal at a lower AAV. But frankly they should be fine getting him on the QO.

The Fonz (Milwaukee): This just in...the Dodgers are good. Ayyyyyyy!

Jeffrey Paternostro: I picked them to win the World Series in our staff predictions. So far, so good.

Sam (Brentwood): What's your take on Joe Ryan? Shane Bieber-esque? Also, what's the ceiling on the Giants' Seth Corry? Thx!

Jeffrey Paternostro: The slider would have to jump for Ryan like it did for Bieber, but he isn't dissimilar from prospect Shane Bieber, so like 3/4 starter. As for Corry he's a lefty with a good curveball so he's got a real shot. It's not a traditional starter's profile in some ways, but we are also moving past that in baseball, so he could be a very good 150 inning bulk guy for someone.

Bob prince (Pittsburgh): Kevin Newman or Trent Grisham -so do you like better?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I was never deeply into either as prospects. Newman has the higher floor, Grisham the higher ceiling. So it depends on what you want to weight (which is the subject of an upcoming Three-Quarters Delivery podcast by the way / flashes the Mick Foley cheap plug Thumbs Up)

Buddy (Peoria, IL): Hoping the Yankees deal Clint Frazier to a team that will play him everyday next year.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Same, same

Riley (NJ): Sad question: what is the % chance Brodie trades Ronny Mauricio this season? I think it is close to 50%

Jeffrey Paternostro: I suspect they will try to foist Vientos or Gimenez off first, but maybe 1 in 4 or so. BVW definitely has a weird splash move in him this offseason, what form it takes, I do not even want to hazard a guess.

Yuri (Israel): Finally, Friday and a non-Craig BP chat. Anyway, which team do you think is the biggest "sleeper" in this year's playoffs?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I kind of think the Twins might just win the whole thing? I didn't pick them but I wouldn't be shocked.

uncasf1 (Raleigh NC): Will Anthony Alford be the starting CF in Toronto next year or is he likely a AAAA player? Thanks.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Man, I liked him a lot in New Hampshire, three injuries or so ago, I think the tools might be just sapped now.

Vic (Baltimore): Do you expect Lux to be a Top 30 MI as soon as next year?

Jeffrey Paternostro: The average middle infielder posted between a .740 and .760 OPS this year, give or take. Yeah, I think he can beat that. I'd smash the over with the caveat that major league baseball is very hard and adjustment times vary.

Jon egeland (Athens oho): Seth beer- dbacks traded for Him while already having Cretan walker. Would you think beer is a core pece going forward and how optimistic are you on his prospects

Jeffrey Paternostro: Walker had a fine, good-CJ-Cron type season. He's also already 28. If Beer hits you make room for him. I'm not as bullish on Beer as some others on staff, but I think he has more upside than 2019 Christian Walker.

Stubby Clapp (St. Louis): Can Logan Webb, Tony Gonsolin or Jose Urquidy be anything more than a #5?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'd bet on Gonsolin first here, while noting that the Dodgers are going to use him in weird ways. Urquidy next, as the Astros tend to do well with these kind of arms. Logan Webb might just be a #5.

Mary (CT): Who would be your 2020 Mets prospect breakout pick?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Junior Santos. Could see Josh Wolf doing a SWR in Columbia as well.

Man, Carlos Correa is hitting seventh in this lineup. Maybe I should have picked the Astros.

nyshogun (Maryland): Hello, I am in a Dynasty league. I need SP and I am having to choose with the following SP's.. LHP: Nick Lodolo RHP: Alek Manoah RHP: Daniel Espino Matthew Allan, RHP Jackson Rutledge, RHP Would you please rank them with who has the best Stuff and highest upside?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Manoah is the best combination of present stuff and upside. You could squint and argue Espino and Allan have more ceiling, and all three have non-zero reliever risk.

Buddy (Peoria, IL): Anything at all for Tigers fans to look forward to next year?

Jeffrey Paternostro: If Casey Mize is healthy, there is that.

Nate (NY): Mets obviously seem to have a busy offseason ahead. Thinking about what moves they may make, it seems like at least one of Dom, Conforto, Nimmo or JD gets moved, but I am having trouble figuring out the value they would each have in a trade. For each of them, what kind of prospect are they worth (i.e, JD is worth a back-end top 100 type, Nimmo top 75 type, etc.) Is it possible that the way the market is now valuing team control, that these guys may be more valuable than they would've been a few years ago?

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's an interesting thought exercise (and the Mets shouldn't trade any of these dudes other than Dom probably). Public defensive metrics hate Davis (and the eye test checks out), but there's a wide range of "hates" here, that places him on a continuum from "good enough regular to live with the glove" to "Lucas Duda in right field." I don't know what the internal metrics for teams are going to say beyond you should probably be able to generate this type of player from your own system. Nimmo is a bit of a sell-low given the neck issue. Conforto makes the most "sense," as the Mets have shopped him a bunch, he's unlikely to extend for less than market, and he only has two years of control left. Again, if the Mets look at the 2019 roster and decide to move any of these guys rather than supplementing, there are larger issues. But, The Metsssss.

Casey Mize (Detroit): Maybe I'm better off being hurt?

Jeffrey Paternostro: We are talking about you a fair bit on Episode 4 of Three-Quarters Delivery. I would really prefer you weren't because I don't like seeing dudes get hurt, and also it makes ranking you a giant pain.

Rudy (Dayton): What do you make of mark vientos at this point?

Jeffrey Paternostro: You can project a lot of whatever you want onto Vientos at this point given the age and skill set. Functionally he won a bunch of industry and team awards because no one really performed at full-season levels in the Mets system (Well, Harol), and there's PR value in fluffing a recent high draft pick. That sounds cynical, but I'm a cynical dude when it comes to the Mets (and have killed that Frisco cocktail), and he's a perfectly cromulent prospect. We've OFP'd him as a 55 for the last couple years, and hey, that's useful major league piece and something like the 150th best prospect in baseball +/- 50 spots. I question if he sticks at third long term as an average glove, and there's some stiffness in the swing, but positive markers in 2019 overall.

Buddy (Peoria, IL): Drew Pomeranz may have just resurrected his career.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Speaking of being cynical about the Mets, this is exactly the arm they overpay in free agency on like 11/20 to "fix" their bullpen.

Buddy (Peoria, IL): I wish I had a cool name like Seth Beer. Maybe Luke Booze? Nick Ale? Trey Lager?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Just call me Jeff Frisco.

Cactus jack (Phoenix): With Alex Thomas kristian Robinson Corbin Carroll and jeferson the dbacks future outfield looks crowded . How do you see it shaking out?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Maaaan this is very much a 2022 problem I think. Robinson has the most upside here, but I love me some Alek Thomas. The swing is very aesthetically pleasing.

Crag (Bp): I hate that I’m even asking this question, but who would the Astros actually want from the Mets for AJ hinch?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I know this isn't Craig, because we all know it is Crig now. Anyway, the most Mets move is taking their bench coach actually for real this time, and then Carlos Beltran goes there as bench coach.

Crag (Bp): I hate that I’m even asking this question, but who would the Astros actually want from the Mets for AJ hinch?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I know this isn't Craig, because we all know it is Crig now. Anyway, the most Mets move is taking their bench coach actually for real this time, and then Carlos Beltran goes there as bench coach.

bob (philly): I picked up Sonny Gray for a buck in a 23 player $260 NL only keeper league so he obviously made me very happy----and I can keep him for another 3-4 years at a very reasonable price if he pitches well. Do you expect some regression this year (tough park) or do you think he can duplicate or even exceed what he did this year? Thx

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't think he will repeat this season per se, given the run environment/park factor you mention, but he does seem to be thriving there so I would have no problem running him back again.

Philosophical question: Were we right when we ranked Tyler Glasnow as the 15th or whatever best prospect in baseball before the 2017 season?

Freddy "Boom Boom" Washington (Brooklyn): I have a feeling the Yanks playoff starters are going to get clobbered.

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's a risk. It's a remarkably fun series on a number of levels, even given the participation of the at times self-serious Yankees. The Twins staff past Berrios isn't amazing either so I am here for the dingers.

CubbieBear (Chi-Town): Zac Gallen had a terrific AAA season particularly in light of the hitting explosion in the PCL (league Era 5.56!). He had a far test of ML this year although limited innings. Where do you think his skill set settles in next year and beyond for AZ?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He's a solid number three starter for me.

Lt. Commander Data (Space): The Cubs have to land a starting pitcher this offseason. Any guesses on who it will be?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Consulting Sportrac the most Cubs free agent pitcher feels like Ryu.

NGBags11 (Upstate): How reckless would it be to trade Chris Paddack for Jo Adell in a dynasty format? What do you see as fair value in terms of major league talent for a prospect like Adell?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Craig will tell you to always trade the arm for the bat. Paddack has significant major league success already, but if he's *only* this good (and given the durability risks) I'd go for it. I suspect Adell is going to check in again as the second best prospect in baseball and he's a close-to-ready bat. There aren't many arms with <2 years of high end major league performance I wouldn't deal for him.

Buddy (Peoria, IL): I know he screwed up, and I know it wasn't the first time, but I still feel bad for Acuna.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Look, you gotta bust those in the playoffs. I generally think a lot of this is eyewash for 162, but leverage is leverage. It's not the end of the world, and it's an easy sell for dudes that don't want to ask Mark Melancon hard questions or whatever, but it's a bad look.

markusjone (Stockholm): Does Don Smith and/or JD Davis have any trade value the Mets could capitalise on since they don’t really fit on the current roster?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Dom for a decent cost-controlled reliever feels like a nailed-on winter meetings deal.

Jeff (Chicago ): Andres Gimenez stock rebounding from hot start in AFL? Do you have any reports/do they reflect the bettered performance?

Jeffrey Paternostro: We should have an Andres Gimenez AFL update for you next week. I am not particularly optimistic myself.

Mel queen (Cincinnat): How are the Mets going to solve their crowded roster? In particular j.d. Davis the bat seems to work -the glove not so much. Will he get regular playing time?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He should play 3 to 4 times a week, 400-500 PA a year. Stay away from the Mike Soroka's and Aaron Nola's of the world.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Back to podcast editing for me. Feel free to check out our library of pods on the BP Prospect Network feed, now on iTunes, Stitcher, et. al.

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