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2019 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 27)
| PA | AVG | HR | R | RBI | SB | DRC+ | WARP |
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- -0.62016
- 7.52017
- 4.72018
- 3.22019
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WARP Summary
MLB Statistics
| YEAR | TEAM | AGE | G | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | DRC+ | DRAA | BRR | FRAA | BWARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | NYA | 24 | 27 | 95 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 42 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .179 | .263 | .345 | 63 | -4.0 | -0.5 | -3.2 | -0.6 |
| 2017 | NYA | 25 | 155 | 678 | 154 | 24 | 3 | 52 | 127 | 208 | 5 | 9 | 4 | .284 | .422 | .627 | 166 | 58.1 | -0.1 | 4.4 | 7.5 |
| 2018 | NYA | 26 | 112 | 498 | 115 | 22 | 0 | 27 | 76 | 152 | 4 | 6 | 3 | .278 | .392 | .528 | 137 | 23.8 | 1.0 | 12.5 | 4.7 |
| 2019 | NYA | 27 | 102 | 447 | 103 | 18 | 1 | 27 | 64 | 141 | 3 | 3 | 2 | .272 | .381 | .540 | 132 | 20.5 | 0.2 | 8.3 | 3.6 |
| Career | 396 | 1718 | 387 | 66 | 4 | 110 | 276 | 543 | 13 | 18 | 10 | .273 | .394 | .558 | 143 | 98.4 | 0.7 | 22.1 | 15.2 | ||
Statistics for All Levels
'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.Minor league stats are currently shown —Click to hide.
| YEAR | Team | Lg | LG | G | PA | oppAVG | oppOBP | oppSLG | BABIP | BPF | BRAA | repLVL | POS_ADJ | DRC+ | DRC+ SD | FRAA | BRR | DRAA | BWARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | CSC | A | SAL | 65 | 278 | .263 | .332 | .388 | .408 | 100 | 24.1 | 7.9 | -3.2 | 175 | 0 | 2.8 | -2.8 | 17.7 | 2.3 |
| 2014 | TAM | A+ | FSL | 66 | 285 | .258 | .328 | .376 | .377 | 101 | 13.1 | 8.4 | -3.3 | 146 | 0 | 8.3 | 1.8 | 8.7 | 2.4 |
| 2015 | TRN | AA | EAS | 63 | 280 | .263 | .320 | .382 | .345 | 92 | 18.5 | 7.5 | -3.1 | 142 | 0 | 11.1 | 2.6 | 6.7 | 2.7 |
| 2015 | SWB | AAA | INT | 61 | 260 | .258 | .323 | .370 | .289 | 94 | -3.5 | 7.2 | -2.6 | 97 | 0 | 8.3 | -0.2 | -4.7 | 0.8 |
| 2016 | NYA | MLB | AL | 27 | 95 | .256 | .319 | .421 | .282 | 110 | -3.9 | 2.7 | -1 | 63 | 10 | -3.2 | -0.5 | -4.0 | -0.6 |
| 2016 | SWB | AAA | INT | 93 | 410 | .255 | .317 | .381 | .319 | 101 | 17.7 | 11.5 | -4.6 | 141 | 0 | 18.3 | 2.8 | 13.2 | 4.2 |
| 2017 | NYA | MLB | AL | 155 | 678 | .257 | .323 | .430 | .357 | 106 | 54.5 | 19.8 | -7.7 | 166 | 8 | 4.4 | -0.1 | 58.1 | 7.5 |
| 2018 | NYA | MLB | AL | 112 | 498 | .247 | .317 | .418 | .368 | 110 | 23.5 | 14.0 | -5.8 | 137 | 6 | 12.5 | 1.0 | 23.8 | 4.7 |
| 2019 | NYA | MLB | AL | 102 | 447 | .252 | .320 | .443 | .360 | 101 | 26.1 | 13.5 | -5.3 | 132 | 9 | 8.3 | 0.2 | 20.5 | 3.6 |
| 2019 | SWB | AAA | INT | 5 | 19 | .252 | .330 | .415 | .125 | 104 | -1.8 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 67 | 0 | 1.8 | -0.1 | -0.8 | 0.1 |
Statistics For All Levels
Minor league stats are currently shown —Click to hide.| Year | Team | lvl | LG | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | TB | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | ISO | SF | SH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | TAM | A+ | FSL | 285 | 233 | 44 | 66 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 103 | 33 | 50 | 72 | 0 | 0 | .283 | .411 | .442 | .159 | 1 | |
| 2014 | CSC | A | SAL | 278 | 234 | 36 | 78 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 124 | 45 | 39 | 59 | 1 | 0 | .333 | .428 | .530 | .197 | 3 | |
| 2015 | SWB | AAA | INT | 260 | 228 | 27 | 51 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 85 | 28 | 29 | 74 | 6 | 2 | .224 | .308 | .373 | .149 | 3 | 0 |
| 2015 | TRN | AA | EAS | 280 | 250 | 36 | 71 | 16 | 3 | 12 | 129 | 44 | 24 | 70 | 1 | 0 | .284 | .350 | .516 | .232 | 3 | 0 |
| 2016 | NYA | MLB | AL | 95 | 84 | 10 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 10 | 9 | 42 | 0 | 1 | .179 | .263 | .345 | .167 | 1 | 0 |
| 2016 | SWB | AAA | INT | 410 | 352 | 62 | 95 | 18 | 1 | 19 | 172 | 65 | 47 | 98 | 5 | 0 | .270 | .366 | .489 | .219 | 3 | 0 |
| 2017 | NYA | MLB | AL | 678 | 542 | 128 | 154 | 24 | 3 | 52 | 340 | 114 | 127 | 208 | 9 | 4 | .284 | .422 | .627 | .343 | 4 | 0 |
| 2018 | NYA | MLB | AL | 498 | 413 | 77 | 115 | 22 | 0 | 27 | 218 | 67 | 76 | 152 | 6 | 3 | .278 | .392 | .528 | .249 | 5 | 0 |
| 2019 | SWB | AAA | INT | 19 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | .125 | .263 | .313 | .188 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019 | NYA | MLB | AL | 447 | 378 | 75 | 103 | 18 | 1 | 27 | 204 | 55 | 64 | 141 | 3 | 2 | .272 | .381 | .540 | .267 | 1 | 0 |
Plate Discipline
| YEAR | Pits | Zone% | Swing% | Contact% | Z-Swing% | O-Swing% | Z-Contact% | O-Contact% | SwStr% | CSAA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 408 | 0.4363 | 0.4559 | 0.5753 | 0.6180 | 0.3304 | 0.6909 | 0.4079 | 0.4247 | 0.0000 |
| 2017 | 2986 | 0.4253 | 0.4109 | 0.6496 | 0.6362 | 0.2442 | 0.7970 | 0.3652 | 0.3504 | 0.0000 |
| 2018 | 2103 | 0.4560 | 0.4056 | 0.6401 | 0.6236 | 0.2229 | 0.7659 | 0.3451 | 0.3599 | 0.0000 |
| 2019 | 1900 | 0.4474 | 0.4179 | 0.6310 | 0.6459 | 0.2333 | 0.7632 | 0.3347 | 0.3690 | 0.0000 |
| Career | 7397 | 0.4403 | 0.4137 | 0.6380 | 0.6341 | 0.2401 | 0.7736 | 0.3540 | 0.3620 | 0.0000 |
Injury History — No longer being updated | Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET |
| Date On | Date Off | Transaction | Days | Games | Side | Body Part | Injury | Severity | Surgery Date | Reaggravation |
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Compensation
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2019 Preseason Forecast | Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET |
| PCT | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | DRC+ | VORP | FRAA | WARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90o | 47 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 1 | 0 | .289 | .413 | .579 | 155 | 4.8 | RF 0 | 0.0 | ||
| 80o | 32 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | .269 | .387 | .538 | 149 | 2.9 | RF 0 | 0.0 | ||
| 70o | 20 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | .294 | .400 | .529 | 145 | 1.8 | RF 0 | 0.0 | ||
| 60o | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .222 | .364 | .556 | 141 | 0.9 | RF 0 | 0.0 | ||
| 50o | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 137 | 0.1 | RF 0 | 0.0 | ||
| Weighted Mean | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 138 | 0.2 | RF 0 | 0.0 |
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BP Articles
Click here to see articles tagged with Aaron JudgeBP Chats
| Date | Question | Answer |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-05-15 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Hi Jesse!
Not sure if I'm overreacting due to lack of an update on his injury, but I'm considering shopping Judge around in a deep dynasty points league. How do you feel about trading him for Gore and Luciano? (Doc Antel from Oklahoma) | The injuries are piling up for Aaron Judge over the past few years. I completely understand the frustration for a dynasty owner. He should be fully recovered by the time baseball resumes, whenever that may be. This is the latest article on his recovery: https://nypost.com/2020/05/05/yankees-aaron-judge-getting-ct-scan-in-couple-more-weeks/
(I hate citing the New York Post for anything . . .) I think an offer of MacKenzie Gore and Marco Luciano for Judge in a deep dynasty points league is fair. Of course, it never hurts to try to squeeze a bit more (maybe a pick or prospect), and it does depend on your contention window. Though, baseball may not happen in 2020, and losing a year of Judge's prime is devastating for dynasty owners. I would strongly consider moving Judge for that package, especially with a kicker. (Jesse Roche) |
| 2020-03-13 13:00:00 (link to chat) | How much are we discounting someone like Aaron Judge in a redraft league? Sounds like the season will be at least a month delayed, but he also has the risk of going for surgery. If he does get surgery, how long would he be out for? (Ajax from Boston) | Sorry, lost Internet for a few minutes.
Judge was diagnosed with a stress fracture in his first rib. He is set to undergo a CT scan next week to determine if surgery is necessary. He says he is feeling great and ahead of schedule. I am not a medical professional so take this with a grain of salt, but, absent surgery, it sounds like it should take him 3 weeks to recovery, which means he likely will now be ready for Opening Day. If you look up recovery time for rib removal surgery, you get a bunch of plastic surgery links (I guess that is a thing) that claim recovery time is six weeks. I would wager if he undergoes surgery, he would be out until May/June. The suspended season clouds his redraft valuation (which had fallen around 100 overall), but, obviously, it is a good thing for his value. I would still ding him some, but I would definitely consider him in the 60-75 range, if not earlier. (Jesse Roche) |
| 2020-03-13 13:00:00 (link to chat) | I was wondering if, because of a shortened schedule, you had any tactics or perhaps changes to your draft plans in roto leagues. I.e. less games to pitch so go heavier on stud sps, or would you rather beef up your offense because effective streaming wont eat into innings limitations? (spotted cow from Rockford) | Great question, and I will go into more detail regarding the impact of the suspended season next week on the debut episode of the Five-Tool Fantasy Baseball Podcast presented by Fantrax.
First, we do not necessarily know it will be a shortened season, though it is very likely. If it is, I am less likely to target prospects in redraft formats as what was previously a potential May/June promotion now may be a July/August promotion, and just two months of production is not worth a stash in most cases. The delay benefits currently injured players like Justin Verlander, Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Clevinger, Aaron Judge, and the like. I would take more shots at guys like that who may still have the injury stigma depressing their value. It does also benefit players on innings limits like Jesus Luzardo, and it may actually mean we see top pitching prospects like MacKenzie Gore earlier in the season than anticipated. I imagine most roto leagues will adjust innings limitations to account for a shortened season, or at least they should. (Jesse Roche) |
| 2020-02-21 13:00:00 (link to chat) | In a 16 team points keeper league: Wander Franco for Aaron Judge, who says no? (Adrienne from The 305) | The Franco owner. Franco is a future points league God. (Jesse Roche) |
| 2019-05-03 13:00:00 (link to chat) | You get to pick five MLB players to help you fight your way out of a zombie apocalypse. Who you taking? (Alonzo Mourning from Miami) | Aaron Judge (Brienne)
Keone Kela (The Hound) Rougned Odor (Arya Stark) Cody Bellinger (Gendry) Justin Turner (Tormund, duh) (Craig Goldstein) |
| 2019-04-19 18:00:00 (link to chat) | Points league, forever keeper, H2H... -1 for strikeouts. Am I crazy to not accept his Aaron Judge for my Wander Franco yet? (Barry from New York) | I went with this one first to highlight the idea that every decision like this comes with a lot of context. Your contention window, your basic philosophy regarding prospects and your roster composition before and after are all considerations in any fantasy deal. Having said that, Franco just turned 18 less than 2 months ago and he is in full-season ball already. Though he has gotten off to a 'slow' start, he is by no means overmatched. He has a chance to be very special and I'd hold him unless dealing him made the difference between a championship and just another finish... (Scott Delp) |
| 2019-04-10 21:00:00 (link to chat) | If you had to pick four MLB players to fight your way out of a zombie-infested warehouse who you picking? (The Yeehaw Agenda from The Wild West) | So one obvious answer is Yasiel Puig. Most likely to take on 7 zombies by himself, for sure.
Next up: Give me Aaron Judge because just the prospect of him entering a fray carries serious gravity. Madison Bumgarner because if you told me he had done this before I wouldn't be THAT shocked. And finally, Mookie Betts, because we have yet to see something he isn't good at. I don't know how that would manifest in a zombie warehouse. Maybe he would just distract them and dazzle them with some heretofore unknown talent until everyone escaped. (Zach Crizer) |
| 2018-09-10 14:00:00 (link to chat) | Justin Mason is mad. He's conducting mock 2019 fantasy baseball drafts this weekend.
Which players do you see infiltrating the top 10 picks in 2019 compared to this season's ADP top 10? Jose Ramirez? Aaron Judge? Chris Sale? And who do we see dropping out? Kershaw? Harper? Stanton?
(2018 ADP)
1 Mike Trout
2 Jose Altuve
3 Nolan Arenado
4 Trea Turner
5 Clayton Kershaw
6 Bryce Harper
7 Paul Goldschmidt
8 Giancarlo Stanton
9 Charlie Blackmon
10 Mookie Betts (Tom Pringle from UK) | He is. I think it's the lack of sleep. Ramirez is a no-doubter - forget top 10, he's top 5. Judge's injury probably stops him, although I think he and Sale will be borderline. Kershaw will be out, as will Blackmon, and probablg Goldschmidt. Bryce has been really good for a couple of months now and I think a good last three weeks might just keep him in there. (Darius Austin) |
| 2018-06-22 13:00:00 (link to chat) | I dealt Blake Snell for Aaron Judge and I'm starting to have buyers remorse. Make me feel better. (Kevin Kelsey from Frito Lay) | You did fine. Generally want the stability of the bat (granted without knowing the vagaries of your league), and Judge is an elite offensive dude. (Jeffrey Paternostro) |
| 2017-09-14 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Aaron Judge had a monster first half, and hit the skids after the ASG. Gary Sanchez was mediocre in the first half, then went on a tear after the ASG.
How much of that do you think is rookie talent? How much of that should Yankee fans expect in the future from the dynamic duo? (Eoin Higgins from The Berkshires) | I think Sanchez may be a better pure hitter in the long run, but Judge is always going to be flashier and hit more dingers. Just by virtue of how big he is, there's always going to be more holes in Judge's swing. He's going to strike out, and he'll be streaky. That's just how it works. That being said, Judge is still going to settle in rather nicely as a well above-average hitter with monster OBP skills. Rumor on the street is that he was dealing with a shoulder thing for a while this year, so that'll partially explain his woes. They're both exceptional young talents to build around. (Nicolas Stellini) |
| 2017-08-28 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Who in your humble opinion is the greatest 3 True Outcomes player of all time? And who is the greatest playing today? (Paul from DC) | I always always always want to say Jack Cust here. And I'm sure there are purer versions out there -- Wily Mo Pena maybe? Wladimir Balentein? -- but Cust's 2007,where he walked over 20 percent of the time, struck out over 30, and had about a quarter of his hits as home runs is pretty remarkable. He should've never declined, in a just world.
The best today? That's kind of tough -- I would've said Nick Williams, but he doesn't walk enough and his major league output has been kind of different. Joey Gallo is tempting, but he also isn't a big, big walker. Probably, it's Aaron Judge, who's flirting with Cust's 20/30 bb/k rate and has about 25 percent of his hits as HR. (Trevor Strunk) |
| 2017-08-28 13:00:00 (link to chat) | What prospect(s) would you be targeting in a fantasy league? Whether its buy high or buy low, who are your guys? (kjesanis from RI) | Hmmm, I always look top 20 if it's a full redraft. If you fall in love with someone down the list, that's fine, but try not to pay out for anything that isn't highly ranked. Prospects in fantasy are basically good for two things: one, sometimes they hit and become productive players; and two, more often than not, they never turn out but they serve as good trade pieces for late season runs. Top 20 guys are likely to do both.
The other piece of advice I have is don't buy high, especially on pitchers. Prospects have incredible variance, and owners value them extremely. I'd rather trade for an Aaron Judge type than a Victor Robles type, since the actual price you pay is gonna be less for the latter, but not usually by much. If you're buying low, buy at positions of need that are high on the defensive spectrum. And keep an eye on home runs, on base, and hit tools. It might seem obvious, but you can lose the forest for the trees and forget that fantasy doesn't need well rounded players, but good fantasy players (Trevor Strunk) |
| 2017-06-20 13:00:00 (link to chat) | What would you do with Tyler Glasnow? (Teb Dos from Iowa) | Let him get his confidence and, more importantly, his command back in Indianapolis. ALl the stuff in the world doesn't help if you're walking five guys per nine. I don't know why he stayed up so long; it's not like he did something to make you think he turned a corner. Watching him perform has been painful. There's a theory that it takes really tall guys (he's 6'8") longer to get their body to move all in sync. I don't know whether that's borne out by anything, but it's an explanation. (And before you say "Aaron Judge," Judge is a year older) (Rob Mains) |
| 2017-07-12 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Aaron Judge was magnificent at the home run derby (Abaseballnut from Illinois ) | https://frinkiac.com/meme/S07E10/556088.jpg?b64lines=ICJJIFRISU5LIEhPTUVSIEdFVFMKIFNUVVBJREVSIEVWRVJZIFlFQVIuIgogVEhBVCdTIE5PVCBBIFFVRVNUSU9OLAogUFJPRkVTU09SLg== (Nick Schaefer) |
| 2017-06-13 12:00:00 (link to chat) | In February 2016, I was debating between Bradley Zimmer and Aaron Judge in a prospect draft. I went Zimmer.
A few months later, I was feeling great, thinking it was becoming clear I made the right choice.
This past offseason, Zimmer got exposed with his Ks.
And now, I realized I passed up on a 40 HR hitter.
All this to say prospects are fickle, man. (Sam from Arizona) | Indeed. Of course Judge was exposed in the majors with his strikeout issue and now look at him (no, I'm not predicting an insane rebound for Zimmer). These things happen, and it is important to remember that neither of these guys are set in stone as they are now. They're going to be different guys over the next few years. Remember when Randal Grichuk was the next superstar in 2015? He got optioned to High-A this year. Things change. (Craig Goldstein) |
| 2017-06-13 12:00:00 (link to chat) | I love what Aaron Judge is doing, but man, I have been hearing some scorching hot takes on him. Already declared better than Giancarlo Stanton? Named a top 5 slugger OF ALL TIME on FS1? Feels like a slap in the face to Stanton given that we've seen power like this before.
Should we whoop out the dictionary and look up the term "Recency Bias"? (Fernando from Miami) | Probably, yes. But this is the way that baseball coverage and analysis is going these days. I don't mean to group Rob Parker into that, because he's just a hot take machine in desperate need of new parts, but even so, the drive for #content means making a *very* big deal about anything that could be made a big deal of. So yeah, you get Aaron Judge and is utterly incredible start to this season. It's remarkable, it is fun, and he's just a fascinating guy to watch, so we get this churn around him as a content generator and it froths up into these stupid takes from time to time.
But no one wants to be the heavy on this stuff. Being a wet towel isn't fun. I don't want to tell you to not enjoy Aaron Judge because, hell, you *should* enjoy him. Maybe enjoy him as much as you can now, because this is probably not the baseline for production going forward. (I still like Aaron Judge and always have) (Craig Goldstein) |
| 2017-06-13 12:00:00 (link to chat) | Kyle Schwarber and Addison Russell aren't really this bad are they? I like when they play well more than when they don't play well (Swagger Leslie from Hell ) | No, they're not this bad, but Schwarber is a good reminder of the Aaron Judge hype train situation. As is Greg Bird a bit. Obviously injuries play a part in both situations, but these guys aren't concrete, finished products just because they're crushing for a while. (Craig Goldstein) |
| 2017-06-13 12:00:00 (link to chat) | Michael Chavis is the next Aaron Judge, right? (mattymatty2000 from Portland) | hahahahahahaha (Craig Goldstein) |
| 2017-05-25 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Will Vince and co. totally botch Shinsuke's run? Also, who baseball's king of strong style? Miguel Sano? Giancarlo Stanton? Aaron Judge? Kyle Schwarber? (Punchoutpappy from First in Flight) | How Vince will handle Shinsuke's run is one of the great concerns of my life right now. His match against Dolph at Backlash didn't do anything to ease my concerns. Ultimately, I have to believe his star power will keep him from being completely wasted, but...I understand why you're worried.
Who's baseball's king of strong style? Sano. Why is that my answer to that question? Sometimes your heart just knows. (Eric Roseberry) |
| 2017-05-04 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Remember a year ago when Bradley Zimmer was seen as a much safer option than Aaron Judge?
Prospects, man. (Peter from NYY) | I will say that we have been more conservative w/r/t Zimmer than most, but yeah, I shouldn't have tuned out Jarrett droning in my ear about how we were too low on Judge. (Jeffrey Paternostro) |
| 2017-04-28 13:30:00 (link to chat) | Traded Aaron Judge for Adam Eaton. Judge cant keep up a 45% HR/FB, right? Tell me I didn't screw up too bad... (Dynasty from Leaguer) | Obviously he cannot. He can still be pretty good though. I love Eaton and think that's a fine deal, depending on the categories. (Craig Goldstein) |
| 2017-03-17 13:00:00 (link to chat) | I know that you've said that if Conforto were still prospect eligible, you'd view him in a similar light as Benintendi. While I don't necessarily disagree with you (I've watched a ton of Conforto), I don't know if the majority of the industry is *quite* that high on him. So, excluding yourself, about where do you think most of the industry would've slotted Conforto on top 100s this offseason? Would he be viewed as a similar caliber prospect as Clint Frazier? or more like Aaron Judge? Better? Worse? (Larry G from Brooklyn) | Can't really speak for the rest of the industry, but I wasn't as high on him as a prospect as other places, nor was BP at the time. There's enough major league at-bats now too where the apples to apples comparison is harder. I will say I think it would be hard for me to get him below Frazier on a Top 25-and-under list or whatever. Not impossible, as Frazier has a bit more upside, but that might also just be because we haven't seen him fail yet. (Jeffrey Paternostro) |
| 2017-03-16 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Aaron Judge or Michael Conforto and why? (Jay from Left) | Conforto. Judge's frame is scary good AND scary bad. (Matthew Trueblood) |
| 2017-03-16 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Who will produce more WAR at peak, Clint Frazier or Aaron Judge? (Bob from Camden ) | Frazier. I'm shorting Judge stock all the way. (He could use it anyway.) (Matthew Trueblood) |
| 2017-03-16 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Does Aaron Judge become a consistent 3-4 win player? (Kim from Dallas) | No. Wow. LOT of Aaron Judge interest. Not gonna be any kind of outfielder for long. Not gonna stay healthy enough to tap into his full power often enough. (Matthew Trueblood) |
| 2017-02-14 12:00:00 (link to chat) | Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas for Gleyber Torress, Jorge Mateo, Aaron Judge and Greg Bird. Who says no? (Jeffrey from KC) | Me, so I don't have to rewrite more stuff for the Futures Guide. Also, the Yankees. (The Top 101 Prospect Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro) |
| 2017-02-21 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Hate to say it, but it looks like at least (maybe both) one of Aaron Judge or Luis Severino will be a total bust. As a Yankee fan, I am tired of seeing this happen over and over again to Yankee prospects. Should I temper my expectations with their current farm? Yankee prospects are always so hyped and then let me down. (Henry from QUeens) | I disagree with this on Judge. He's always going to have contact issues, but if he can minimize those to an acceptable level, I think he will at least be able to hit for power. It's not a superstar type of profile, but he can be a useful outfielder with some value. I'm not as optimistic on Severino after seeing him a bunch in Triple-A. (George Bissell) |
| 2017-01-06 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Would you say its more likely than not that at least one of Aaron Judge or Clint Frazier is a bust? (Jared from Long Island) | So how are we defining bust, not even a Role 5 major league starter? I think it would be more likely than not, but not significantly so. (Jeffrey Paternostro) |
| 2016-12-15 13:00:00 (link to chat) | What do you suppose the odds of Aaron Judge being a bust are? Being an above average regular? (ColeWhittier from Pasadena, CA) | I will tell you what, I think odds of a bust are greater than an above-average regular. He is really struggling to make contact, and I'm a bit concerned. (Kenny Ducey) |
| 2016-12-02 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Bat only -- do you like Hunter Renfroe or Aaron Judge better? (ColeWhittier from Pasadena, CA) | Probably Judge. I'm a little leery of Renfroe's lack of a track record outside of El Paso, although I don't think there is a huge offensive tools gap here and Renfroe might end up with more hit. (Jeffrey Paternostro) |
| 2016-12-05 20:00:00 (link to chat) | Is it apparently clear that the Yankees wont commit to any long term big contracts to get ready for Harper and Machado? (David from NY) | There's zero guarantee that Harper, Machado or any of the other potential names in that free agent class actually reach the open market, but I think the signing of Matt Holliday to a short-term deal revealed a lot about what Cashman is planning to do. The big question is how their prospect haul pans out. We have a pretty good idea that Gary Sanchez is a core performer. Are Gleyber Torres and Clint Frazier too? What about guys like Greg Bird, Aaron Judge, etc...Tons of variables to consider, but you have to love the position the Yankees have put themselves in long-term. (George Bissell) |
| 2016-11-22 20:00:00 (link to chat) | Is Aaron Judge going to be Jon Singleton 2.0? I know it's likely way too early to tell but the contact issues scare the crap out of me. (Bobby from Albany) | I mentioned this exact thing on the podcast this week, but I'm uncomfortable giving Jon Singleton as a comp for anyone given his personal issues. There's probably a lot there that we don't know, and even with what we do, it has to have hurt his development.
I still believe in Judge. (Jarrett Seidler) |
| 2016-11-22 20:00:00 (link to chat) | Aaron Judge or Michael Conforto and why?
(Glenn from Riverbrook) | I think I got this last chat too. It's still Conforto because he's been way better at the same levels and isn't particularly outclassed in tools. (Jarrett Seidler) |
| 2016-09-29 13:00:00 (link to chat) | How much does Hunter Renfroe's explosive start make you forget about his extreme AAA home/road splits and his 22/115 bb/k rate? Do you like him better than Aaron Judge? (The Chicken from San Diego, CA) | It's nice to see, but let's not go crazy. The sample size is extremely small. That being said, you're seeing what kind of talent he has. He and Margot both should be starting in San Diego to begin 2017. (Christopher Crawford) |
| 2016-09-29 13:00:00 (link to chat) | How much does Hunter Renfroe's explosive start make you forget about his extreme AAA home/road splits and his 22/115 bb/k rate? Do you like him better than Aaron Judge? (The Chicken from San Diego, CA) | It's nice to see, but let's not go crazy. The sample size is extremely small. That being said, you're seeing what kind of talent he has. He and Margot both should be starting in San Diego to begin 2017. (Christopher Crawford) |
| 2016-09-19 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Do you think A.J. Reed or Aaron Judge will be good major league bats? Or have they gone the way of Jon Singleton? (ColeWhittier from Pasadena, CA) | Judge strikes me more as a Gallo than a Singleton, which truthfully doesn't make me any more sure of what he's capable of. I think I'm always more willing to believe in giant people who can hit baseballs a mile than I should be, but I'd say Judge is unlikely to hit a Singleton styled floor. He'd slay, for instance, in the NPB.
Reed is harder -- I have a real problem with 1B only prospects, even when they look like special bats, and so Reed always worried me. I can only box score scout in the time here, but it seems like it's a decent enough bet that he'll figure something out. But will it be enough to be a good-enough first baseman in the AL West? Ehhhhhhh (Trevor Strunk) |
| 2016-09-07 19:00:00 (link to chat) | What's going on with Aaron Judge? (Greg from Peoples) | Judge has a ton of swing and miss in his game, and has always had some trouble adjusting to new pitching. Combine that with a Voros's Law level sample size, and you can get this. I still like him long-term. (Jarrett Seidler) |
| 2016-08-25 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Aaron Judge or Michael Conforto? How many WAR do you see each averaging over 2017-2020? (Frank from GA) | Not answering in strict WAR, but that's still a tough question. I keep almost just typing Conforto and then coming up with points in Judge's favor. A big reason behind the pro-Judge stuff is playing in that park, and how many more short-porch hooks I think he can drive out of there. (Adam McInturff) |
| 2016-08-25 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Feels like a lot of these Yankee prospects are being overhyped. Aaron Judge I dont think will ever be much better than the average regular. And I really dont understand why Jorge Mateo is ranked so high. I get it, hes fast but that's really it (Reese from GA) | Not speaking specifically to either player when I say this, but remember two things:
1. Players from teams like the Yankees will always have very hyped prospects, moreso than the aggregate. In the internet age, remember how much name-recognition can drive public opinion on players. That's why it is so important to have prospect watchers actually get out to games and evaluate these guys live like we do our best to provide our readers here at Baseball Prospectus. 2. Remember how much any shortstop prospect's value is also inflated. Simply by playing shortstop or catcher--let alone playing those positions in the minor league system of a large-market team--a guy is going to get talked about with an above-average level of buzz. (Adam McInturff) |
| 2016-08-17 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Aaron Judge or Michael Conforto? (Asher from CP) | I mean, I too wish to be excited about Judge. But PECOTA still projects a better RoS True Average for Conforto (.275) over Judge (.270), and Conforto in his "bad" 2016 campaign has still been an above league-average hitter. If the Mets keep screwing with sending MC up and down, anything could happen. But unless you're talking about the rest of this particular season, I'd rather have Conforto. (Bryan Grosnick) |
| 2016-08-01 16:00:00 (link to chat) | Does Aaron Judge get the call after a hot streak now that Beltran is gone? (Kenny Graves from Newburgh, NY) | He hasn't played in about a month because of a knee injury, so I suspect the Yankees will be cautious with him the rest of this year now that they have committed to not playing for this year. (Mike Gianella) |
| 2016-06-27 20:00:00 (link to chat) | Thoughts on Aaron Judge and his MLB potential? (Jason from NY) | I haven't seen Aaron Judge in person since his AFL stint a couple of years ago but I am confident in saying that his power will always play. He has continued to make adjustments with his swing and has improved his pitch recognition but there will always be swing and miss in his game. I think a realistic projection at the ML level would be .240ish with 25 homers annually. (James Fisher) |
| 2016-05-17 14:00:00 (link to chat) | Thoughts on Aaron Judge? (Jen from California) | I'm one of the lower guys on Judge. I spent most of last summer watching him and the rest of Double-A Trenton play, and I think he's unquestionably a major league outfielder, but he gets beat very easily on breaking stuff on the outer half of the plate. The strikeout rate was really ugly at one point this year but it's been coming down, so that's a good sign. There's still some development to be done here but he's always going to have pretty substantial strikeout numbers in the bigs. (Nicolas Stellini) |
| 2016-05-04 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Is an Aaron Judge callup coming any time soon? (Alex from Anaheim) | Hopefully! I want to watch that guy play! (But I wouldn't be surprised, and please hold your eye rolls, if it's not until late June, so as to avoid any risk of him being a Super Two.) (Matthew Trueblood) |
| 2016-04-22 13:00:00 (link to chat) | At this point it seems pretty much guaranteed Bryce Harper is going to garner a mammoth contract when he hits free agency. Realistically, where do you think he could sign? How shocked would you be if he *didn't* sign with the Yankees? Or if he stayed with the Nationals? (Brendan from Hoboken) | I would be pretty surprised if he doesn't sign with the Yankees, frankly. They'll open up their checkbook, they should have a spot open in the outfield alongside Jacoby Ellsbury (yep, he'll still be there) and Aaron Judge, and in the order right behind Ellsbury (still there!) and Judge. He might hit 40 dingers to right field alone.
I also think he fits the city of New York incredibly well. You need a guy with his attitude (sort of like Matt Harvey). He'll welcome the attention, and become a mega star. Don't see where else he would go other than New York if he decided to leave Washington. (Kenny Ducey) |
| 2016-03-28 13:00:00 (link to chat) | What's in the Yankees future? Any hope, or too old? (Glen from Alexandria, VA) | I think the Yankees actually are going to move to something we haven't seen in years now that 'da Cash-man' is more firmly holding the reins. For one, we've seen them invest way more in their scouting and player development. Secondly, we're seeing the club value pitching and defense from team-controlled players than I can remember in recent years.
After seeing Boston and the Cubs have success as major-market clubs who still utilized resources into scouting and homegrown players, I do think the Yankees will ultimately follow suit. Jorge Mateo, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, James Kaprelian and others give them a stronger and more potentially-impactful core of prospects than they've had before. It might not be totally evident this year, specifically, but I think by 2020 we're going to see a Yankees team that will be a far cry from the 'buy 'em all' clubs we've seen in the past. (Adam McInturff) |
| 2016-01-29 11:00:00 (link to chat) | What is the biggest difference between Aaron Judge and Hunter Renfroe to cause such a disparity in the rankings? (padremurph from Los Angeles) | More power, and more playable power for Judge. (Top 101 Chat with Craig Goldstein) |
| 2015-10-22 14:00:00 (link to chat) | Hi Matt, I was just wondering if you could list who each team's Michael Conforto is and when you expect them to be called up. (M.Zaun from NumbahOne) | M is referring to this Tweet of mine from July (https://twitter.com/MATrueblood/status/618124092940550144), in which I defended the prospect team's decision not to rank Conforto among the top 50 prospects in baseball by explaining what I understood to be his limitations. He's grown beyond some of those. He's a better player than many on the BP staff, and certainly than I, thought he would be.
That said, keep Conforto in perspective, folks. If you gave us another crack at that midseason 50 list, he'd probably make it, but he wouldn't be above, for instance, Aaron Judge (13th) or Nick Williams (21st). Even Stephen Piscotty (40th, and maybe also rated too low; his power developed so very late in his overall developmental arc) has a case for being above Conforto. Still, M's snark isn't unfounded. (Matthew Trueblood) |
| 2015-10-07 14:00:00 (link to chat) | I'm a sad Yankees fan today. What do you think about us in 2016? How do we work Greg Bird in the lineup with a healthy Tex, plus A Rod at DH? What about Aaron Judge in the outfield rotation? Does Rob Refsnyder start at 2B? Do we hit the free agent market or make any trades? (Howard from Bottom of a bottle) | I think a lot of the older guys performing this year was unexpected and not something I'd bank on in 2016. So yeah, get Bird in there somehow (is Tex gonna be healthy?) and Judge should be ready as well. (Sahadev Sharma) |
| 2015-08-12 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Have you recieved any reports on Yankees outfield prospect Carlos Vidal? (Julian from Los Angeles) | He's your typical Yankee outfield prospect (outside of Aaron Judge) -- tons of athleticism, questions about how those tools will transfer over. He's performed very well this year though, so there's a chance he's a regular. Several years from contributing though. (Christopher Crawford) |
| 2015-07-16 20:00:00 (link to chat) | Which of the following do you foresee having the most impact (if any) come September and into next year: Mazara, Conforto, JP Crawford, Trea Turner and Aaron Judge? (rpo from CHI) | Nomar Mazara and it's not even close for me. He's a potential superstar. He's been discussed internally among BP staff (as a prospect we like) more than almost anyone not named Schwarber in the last six months. (George Bissell) |
| 2015-07-15 13:00:00 (link to chat) | If Aaron Judge running as fast as he could ran into Tony Kemp, how far would Kemp fly? (Vince from Saratoga) | I believe if that were to happen we'd have a superhero the likes of which we've never seen. Or villain if you hate the Astros and Yankees, which I know many of you do. (Christopher Crawford) |
| 2015-06-22 13:00:00 (link to chat) | News out of Yankee camp is that Aaron Judge has been promoted to AAA. Good move? Is he actually ready for a September Call-up? (John from New York) | He might be. The gap between AA and AAA isn't that large. He's pretty much ready to go at this point. It'll depend on the Yankees situation in the standings and their needs, but yeah, it's not a stretch. And given how many prospects have been called up at this point, why not? (Jeff Moore) |
| 2015-06-15 19:00:00 (link to chat) | The Yanks finally gave Mason Williams a call up. What potential does Aaron Judge have of being an average everyday player? (Dan from Lawrence, KS) | I like him as New York's future right fielder, possibly as early as next season. (Brendan Gawlowski) |
| 2015-05-13 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Better career: Judge or Bird? (Alex from Anaheim) | Aaron Judge is the better player, with all due respect to Bird. (Christopher Crawford) |
| 2015-05-13 13:00:00 (link to chat) | How far away is Aaron Judge? Have the Yankees given any indication? (Mike F from NYC) | I mean they haven't told me directly, but based on how he's performing in Double-A/his advanced skill-set I think you should see him up in the spring of 2016. (Christopher Crawford) |
| 2015-05-05 15:00:00 (link to chat) | Thoughts on Aaron Judge so far this season? Still early, but from a stat watcher's perspective, the BB% looks a little down. Looks like he's hitting the ball well though. Hear anything on him and his future overall upside? Thanks for doing this chat Nick. Awesome stuff here at BP! (Al from Bardonia) | BP's own Al Skorupa saw Judge play in April. Still hitting line drives everywhere: https://twitter.com/alskor/status/593503326030811137
Thanks for the question (Nick Shlain) |
| 2015-04-16 17:00:00 (link to chat) | Thoughts on prospects who are in systems where the major league club is more likely to sign/trade for a vet or star than give shots to rookies unless studs?
ie- LA gives Joc a chance, but likely not A Guererro , Wsh with guys like Roark, Cole, T Jordan.
Should we de-value those prospects or just hope for trades? (Keith Osik from Squatting) | You have to devalue them somewhat, yes. A guy like Aaron Judge or Greg Bird also gets knocked down given the Yankees history with young players as well. (Mike Gianella) |
| 2015-03-12 15:00:00 (link to chat) | Which Yankee prospect is more likely to be called up prior to September: Greg Bird or Aaron Judge? (Alex from Anaheim) | Bird by a feather, as he's reached AA. Judge is the better overall prospect. (Andrew Koo) |
| 2015-02-26 20:00:00 (link to chat) | Does Aaron Judge make it to the MLB this year? Do you think he will be exposed in AA? How good can he be? Give me the full rundown on Judge. (Chris from NY) | He could be a 30-plus homer outfielder, who will most definitely not be in the majors this year. He's a big guy, but has less swing-and-miss than you'd think a guy his size would have. So we're not talking about a .230 hitter here, maybe more in the .250 to .260 range. (Bret Sayre) |
| 2015-02-25 14:00:00 (link to chat) | Rank the following prospects for a dynasty league: Josh Bell, Jose Peraza, Steven Matz, Henry Owens, Aaron Judge, Raimel Tapia, and Braden Shipley (Mitch from Mitchville) | Owens
Shipley Matz (The three arms are the safest tier and it's basically a pick'em depending on which weaknesses bother you the least) Tapia Judge Peraza Bell (now a 1B) On Judge - saw quite a bit of him. I think his tools are so strong and what he does well he does WELL ENOUGH that it will overcome hit tool questions. I'm probably one of the low guys on Judge around here. Pretty funny to me, because two years ago I was arguing with people he was a big league regular where everyone questioned him. Big, stiff, long swing and he's just so big he doesn't really have great control of the bat head or barrel because he's too big to have that kind of fine motor control. Doesn't see breaking or soft well, but a selective hitter anyway. I feel like the problems I saw aren't big issues yet but will get exposed in Double-A. I still really like him and think he's a big league regular. He will also be a very fun player to watch. AVG may be a bigger issue than many anticipate, but it's not going to stop him from being a valuable MLB OF. (Al Skorupa) |
| 2015-02-04 19:00:00 (link to chat) | Other than maybe some different names at the back end, would there be any significant ranking differences between the BP 101 and your personal 101? (Shawnykid23 from CT) | I can't really speak to that since the BP 101 isn't officially released yet. But, in general, some guys I'm higher on than other lists are: Tyler Glasnow, Reese McGuire, Aaron Judge, Manuel Margot, Brandon Drury, Nomar Mazara, ad Jorge Mateo. Guys I'm a bit lower on: Aaron Sanchez, Nick Williams, Josh Bell, Matt Olson, Hunter Harvey, Tyrone Taylor, Luis Severino, Brandon Nimmo. Hope that helps. (Jordan Gorosh) |
| 2015-01-05 15:00:00 (link to chat) | Hello Jeffery, who'd you like in the AFL this Fall? (Chris from California ) | Aaron Judge was very impressive. He was even better than when I saw him during the year, and I liked him then. The AFL was my first look at Trevor Story and I was more impressed than I expected to be. That guy is going to be a big league second baseman.
And don't call me Jeffrey. That's it. You get one. (Jeff Moore) |
| 2014-10-31 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Does Aaron Judge look the part of the middle of the order hitter in the Yankee lineup or too many questions still? (Chris from Phoenix) | I had to leave the AFL for a wedding, so I did not get a chance to watch him. However, judging by the texts I received from the rest of our guys at the AFL, he looked terrific. The power is asinine. There are always going to be questions about a guy of that size being able to shorten his swing enough, but Judge has proven many wrong so far. Wouldn't shock me to see him becoming the Yankees' next dude. (Tucker Blair) |
| 2014-10-13 13:00:00 (link to chat) | What one or two minor league stats are the best indicators of future success for a hitter in MLB? What about a minor league pitcher? (Boyd from Washington D.C.) | Using stats as indicators is tricky. As I pointed out in my article about Aaron Judge, I think they can be a guideline to help us understand what we're seeing along with scouting reports. Using just stats is ludicrous (though that's not necessarily what you're insinuating). That said, one of the go-to stats I use for both hitters and pitchers is K/BB ratio.
Side note, when I write the word ludicrous, to this day I still spell it the like the rapper and rely on spell check to fix it, mostly out of nostalgic stubbornness. (Jeff Moore) |
| 2014-09-10 12:00:00 (link to chat) | Do you project Aaron Judge as a major league starter? (Alex from Anaheim) | Judge definitely has the ability.
He's a guy that I think we really cannot truly state on that before we see him against Double-A competition. He has a few quirks at the plate that could be exposed, such as his ability to pull the hands in. Also, his ability to stay back on the good off-speed. His raw power is plus-plus and it's a sexy package. I'll be seeing a lot of him next year, and am very excited. (Tucker Blair) |
| 2014-09-03 14:00:00 (link to chat) | How good do you think Aaron Judge will be? (Lewis from Connecticut) | I'm starting to come around. The reports about the hit tool are extremely encouraging, which surprised me. Yet, he's going to have to adjust in AA/AAA, and again in the majors. He's a good athlete for his size, but I always worry about mammoth position players as every day guys. It's very hard to control the zone at 6'7, and even though the hit tool has improved, it's still got a decent ways to go in order to work at the major league level. (Jordan Gorosh) |
| 2014-08-21 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Do you have high hopes for Aaron Judge? (Alex from Anaheim) | That's one for the prospect guys--minor league OFers are usually off my radar :) Check out this report for more http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_bat.php?reportid=160 (Harry Pavlidis) |
| 2014-08-08 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Craig, in a points based league that penalizes K's, would Tapia leapfrog guys like, Lewis Brinson, Nick Williams, and Aaron Judge? (MP from Kentucky) | Brinson yes, Judge is close, but Williams is still in front for me. (Craig Goldstein) |
| 2014-08-08 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Do you think Aaron Judge will be a power bat for the Yankees at some point? (Alex from Anaheim) | Absolutely. I'm all in on Aaron Judge. (Craig Goldstein) |
| 2014-08-08 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Ranking highest upside, bat only... Aaron Judge, Rio Ruiz, Lewis Brinson, Renato Nunez, Dalton Pompey, and Franklin Barreto? (MP from Kentucky) | Pure upside: Brinson, Judge, Pompey, Ruiz, Barreto, Nunez (Craig Goldstein) |
| 2014-08-04 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Is Aaron Judge's plate discipline this season for real? He seemed like a massive swing-and-miss risk coming into the season but he's been walking prodigiously. Is it more that pitchers are trying to work around him, or is he just being really patient? (NStellini from New Jersey) | It was assumed that Judge would have big time strike out numbers because tall hitters tend to have a hole in their swing that they can't do anything about. That hole is still there and will probably get exploited at higher levels, but his approach limits it as much as is possible. He has a small-mans approach in a really huge body. He's patient and tries to hit line drives back up the middle and to the gaps. It's a great approach, and while it would limit most people's power, he's so big and strong that he'll still run into his fair share of home runs. I was impressed. (Jeff Moore) |
| 2014-07-22 15:00:00 (link to chat) | Jordan, gun to your head (pretend, of course), which of these bats has the best chance to win an MVP in 5-7 years: Raimel Tapia, Dalton Pompey, Austin Meadows, Aaron Judge, or Rio Ruiz. (Matt from KY) | None of them have an MVP ceiling. But, Tapia could mash his way to one, I guess. (Jordan Gorosh) |
| 2014-07-08 13:00:00 (link to chat) | Thanks for answering more questions. Aaron Judge has put solid numbers, albeit has an older player in A ball. Does his improved contact enhance his prospect rankings. How Do you see him project to the the major league level when that time comes. (J from Youngstown) | The swing and miss has still been prevalent, and I think you'll see it come back to life in a big way at Double-A. Despite the appearance of lower strikeout rates, I have still had numerous scouts indicate he's struggled with some stuff in the zone because he's got a longer swing. I want to see how he adjusts to improved arms before I really marry myself to a projection for him, but he's more solid player than star. (Mark Anderson) |
| 2014-04-15 13:00:00 (link to chat) | What are your thoughts on Aaron Judge? (Chris from Phoenix) | Exceptionally large man with serious thunder in the bat. I don't believe he will hit MLB-caliber pitching enough for the power to manifest at full potential, but then again, he could be a serviceable MLB player without all of his power coming out in game action. (Mark Anderson) |
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