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Chat: Jeffrey Paternostro

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday June 22, 2018 1:00 PM ET chat session with Jeffrey Paternostro.


Jeffrey is the lead prospect writer at Baseball Prospectus and co-host of the BP Mets podcast, For All You Kids Out There.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'm bored so let's start early and squeeze in before Switzerland/Serbia

John (Harrisonburg): Sheldon Neuse has had a terrible season at AAA so far. Moreover, during his brief stint in AA last year, he showed no power. How much of a prospect is he? Does he project as a starter or is he more of a fringe guy?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Greg, not Craig, Goldstein liked him a fair bit last year, but he's always been more of a fringe dude for me. This is the first time he hasn't really hit though, so giving him some consolidation time given how fast he moved last year seems reasonable. I don't know if there is much more than a second-division reward at the end of the rainbow here though.

Soft Serve (Under the Sea): Nimmo must be zooming up the keeper rankings at this point. Where are you on him going forward?

Jeffrey Paternostro: It feels like I am reassesing my Nimmo view every week. He's qualified on PA now and basically is top five in everything. He's looked better against lefties as the season has worn on (which is the one weakness I saw in the minors that I thought would truly limit him in the pros). He's going to make an all-star game and deserve it. I'll say again I don't think he is *this* good going forward, but this good seems to be better every week.

John (Harrisonburg): What do you think of the report from Susan Slusser with the San Francisco Chronicle that Billy Beane may be departing from the A's after next season?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't know enough about the inner workings of the A's front office to really comment, but it seems like he has been less involved in the day-to-day for a while now.

Boricuan (DR): Congrats on Childish Gambino. I know there was a day on Twitter where the origin was debated, but you are the first person I saw tweet it. Shame Ronald Glover never caught on for Ben.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Thank you. It is good to be appreciated for my hard work in the nicknaming sphere.

cracker73 (Florida): Could you rank the following catcher prospects for long term dynasty purposes: Keibert Ruiz, M.J. Melendez, Sean Murphy, and Ronaldo Hernandez? Thanks.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Melendez and Hernandez have the most offensive upside. Melendez is a slightly better bet to to stick although I imagine both will, then Ruiz, Murphy.

Collin (Austin): Predictions for the G1?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Block A looks like is set up for Okada to run over undefeated, or maybe with one freak loss to a rando. Block B looks tricky, although Jarrett suggested it's set up for an Ibushi/Omega draw on the last night to let Naito through. If it was me I would do that tactic to let like Ishii through, and have Okada beat him to set up Omega/Okada 5 at the dome. Rather not see Okada beat Naito again. You could also have Naito beat Okada there and Naito/Omega could easily main the dome at this point. Generally I am just eager to see how they handle post-title-run Okada and hoping for a decent push in Block B for ZSJ.

accudart1 (Vermont): I always read despite great minor league numbers that Koby Allard is at best a number 3 because of lack of velocity. Do you see that as his ceiling?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Two points that I harp on too much probably. (1) #3 starters are really good. (2) I hate the word ceiling. With that out of the way we do have him as an OFP 60 with a #3 so I guess basically yes, and the velocity is the limiting issue here, yes.

Ben (CA): Is Jo Adell a top 10 prospect by the end of the season?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Earlier.

Seth (NJ): Oneil Cruza future top prospect?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Cruz is one of those weirdos where the OFP/Likely model breaks down a bit for us because the range of outcomes/positions/body types are so wide. I don't expect him to be a Top 50 dude, but he also could absolutely be one in two years if it clicks. "If it clicks" is a dangerous dangerous conditional in this line of work though.

Ben (SC): Thoughts on Yordan Alvarez? He's dominating AA at age 20. Who is the better prospect between him and Kyle Tucker?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Still Tucker, but Yordan has narrowed the gap a bunch. Much of our midseason list discussion so far has revolved around various staff members telling me I am too low on Alvarez.

Ned (Nabisco): Why can't the Reds slide Suarez back to SS to accommodate Senzel?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Nothing is stopping them save for the fact that he probably isn't even playable below average there at this point.

Steve (DC): Will Luis Garcia be the top 2B prospect in 2 years? If not him, who?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Jarrett's liked him more at third this year, but a lot of this is gonna depend on what the Nats look like in two years, or maybe what Carter Kieboom looks like in two years. I'll also suggest that we aren't so high on him that your first question is a likely yes for me. It's more likely to be like Andres Gimenez or Royce Lewis or Wander Javier or someone like that.

Tuti Fruity (Florida): Is Soroka more of a 5? Stuff seems pedestrian.

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's like a 6 and 2 55s, but he commands and mixes everything well so it plays up. #5 starter stuff isn't even that good either.

Felix (Monmouth): I recently dealt Berrios for Juan Soto in a keep forever league. Make me feel good about it as I had Berrios for a long time and I'm saddened.

Jeffrey Paternostro: You made the right call.

Keith (Everglades): Is Jacob Nix a 3?

Jeffrey Paternostro: You'd like to see (A) a full healthy season, and (B) him miss some more bats, in that order of importance. But #3 starter is definitely in play.

Andrew (Boston): The top 10 current prospects Mike Rizzo has traded away are the ____th best top 10 in baseball. A list for you to choose from: Jesus Luzardo, Sheldon Neuse, Dane Dunning, Taylor Hearn, Blake Perkins, Kelvin Gutierrez, Yohanse Morel, Tyler Watson, McKenzie Mills, Pedro Avila, Max Schrock, and Travis Ott.

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's a decent top three in Jesus Lizard, Dunning, Hearn, but it drops off pretty quickly. Bottom five, better than the Mariners and the Giants off the top of my head. Rizzo gets a bit underrated as a GM still I think.

waks (brooklyn): Monte Harrison has a 38.3% K rate and a 8.3% walk rate. That's not good. Any chance that hit tool improves?

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's not what you want. Double-A is an important proving ground for these profiles for a reason. I'm not giving up on the tools, but stock is down for now.

dave (bama): Do you think Nicky Lopez can be an average regular for the Royals, and if so, how soon?

Jeffrey Paternostro: We had a spirited discussion on Lopez last offseason in the context of the Royals list and he definitely had his backers. With the way he's hit at Double-A he may just be awaiting a Whit Merrifield deal.

Tom (LI): Worse use of VAR yesterday - Rebic yellow for getting pushed, or Otamendi not red for launching the ball at Rakitic's head while he was on the ground?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'm not a huge fan of using VAR to adjudicate cards after the fact generally, but Otamendi's should have been handled at the time for sure. Man, Argentina has been a mess but somehow still mostly control their own destiny.

Sean99 (Orland Park): Can Freddy Peralta make it work?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I generally feel like these profiles kill it once or twice around the league and then it goes pear-shaped. But this profile is also an outlier generally.

Rich (New York): Met fan here. What team should I be hoping the Mets deal Familia to in terms of best possible return?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So the Herrera deal is the model here, but Herrera also doesn't have lingering shoulder issues and was better for longer before a 2017 blip. The Mets are probably better off getting the best single piece they can get and also eating some money. I doubt they will do either. I'm also not entirely sure Familia's meds won't get flagged by another team.

Jon (Westchester): Ronnie Mauricio, Stanley Consuerga, Mark Vientos, Luis Sanchez, Shervyen Newton all playing on short season teams. Safe to say, there is some hope for this system when you look at the lower levels? Any thoughts on these guys and other names I might be missing (I guess add Adrian Hernandez in the DSL, hopefully not for long) at the lower levels that you like?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Junior Santos in the DSL is another name I've gotten buzz on. Newton and Consuegra are the most interesting to me past the seven-figure guys, and you could make a case Newton is a better prospect than Mauricio right now. The thing is most teams have interesting teenagers in the lower levels, and the Mets have in the recent past as well. Better athletes this time around at least.

Nicky (Detroit): Michel Baez still worth getting excited about?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Sure, although the buzz and secondaries are down a bit this year. And the back injury hasn't helped.

Nonnie (Texas): Is there another gear in Nomar Mazara?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think so. He's already shown capacity to make adjustments and he just turned 23 which is insane since I have definitely been writing about him for a decade.

Eric (San Francisco): So blast from the past, I saw Grant Desme in the news for signing with an independent league team. Did the priesthood thing not pan out? I saw he was also the baseball coach at Ave Maria, too.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yeah, we might actually be writing something on this because I am curious as well.

Desean (Hansens garage ): What kinda numbers could vlad realistically put up in his prime?

Jeffrey Paternostro: https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/31483/miguel-cabrera

Kurt (New Lenox): I dealt Adonis Medina for Dylan Covey. Should I be arrested for robbery?

Jeffrey Paternostro: It could definitely work out for you but think you may have sold low and bought high.

Kevin Kelsey (Frito Lay): I dealt Blake Snell for Aaron Judge and I'm starting to have buyers remorse. Make me feel better.

Jeffrey Paternostro: You did fine. Generally want the stability of the bat (granted without knowing the vagaries of your league), and Judge is an elite offensive dude.

Tommy (NY): Keston Hiura looks like a stud. Can he keep it up? How would you rank him if he sticks at 2B?

Jeffrey Paternostro: We are assuming he sticks at second base at this point, and he's very high on our midseason list.

Keith (Vestibule ): What kinda stuff does pablo lopez have?

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's not eye-popping, but boy does he have his fans, and boy do they like to message me. It's low 90s, good change, command and control, groundball type.

Florence (Blitzburgh): As a Phillies fan, how concerned should I be about Sixto's elbow?

Jeffrey Paternostro: As a Sixto fan, I am cautiously optimistic.

Edith (Barcelona): Will Austin Riley be ranked high? I was excited until he got hurt.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yes, I have finally been won over.

Jason (Crystal Lake): Shane Baz only had 1 k in his debut. Should I be concerned?

Jeffrey Paternostro: You should not.

Gary (Tampa): We had Juan Soto who was last years Ronald Acuna, who was the previous years Victor Robles. Who is the next meteoric riser this year?

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's pretty clearly Jo Adell.

Horace (Mariano's ): Andres gimenez moving up the rankings, haven't heard much

Jeffrey Paternostro: Sure. He's likely never going to be a break out guy, but body's a little better, more pop, better reports on the glove.

Ricky (18 and life): I can't wait for Carlos Rodon to put it all together.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'm right there with you still buddy

Mike (NY): Acuna, soto, or vlad now??

Jeffrey Paternostro: So like Soto has a 2% chance of winning the NL MVP this year or something. I'll take that guy at the moment.

Matt (Freehold ): Thanks for taking the time to chat Jeff. To what extent is Gavin Lux's improvement this year for real, or a Cal League mirage?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Wilson saw him recently and liked what he saw, but it sounds like the underlying tools haven't really changed. Balanced skill set, nothing plus though, and more a solid hand up the middle than a star.

Sean99 (Orland Park): An owner in my league only looks at stats when assessing minor leaguers. How dangerous is that? He dropped Dustin May. Should I grab him?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So I have so many questions here, but first it's a 3.83 ERA and a K per inning in the Cal League even before we get into the stuff.

Anyway, yes, free the Gingergaard. The stuff has jumped and there could be even more coming.

roxfan12 (Florida): The Jesus Lizard keeps rising in the ranks. Could he be a 2019 guy or do you still see 2020? # 3 with upside?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Gonna come down to team need and how much the A's want to manipulate his service time. I expect he will be ready at some point in 2019. #3 with upside seems fair.

Yano #1 (Osaka): Who is the best wrestler on the planet and why is it Toru Yano?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I really wish WWE had just let Nakamura run with the Yano gimmick as like a main event level heel gimmick. Most of their fanbase has seriously said "do an irony' at some point in the last two years anyway.

Slippery Pete (Texas): Griffin Canning: is he approaching the upper echelon of pitching prospects, or do you worry about the walks?

Jeffrey Paternostro: This was always in the tank if he could stay healthy. Gonna need to see it for a bit longer before he's a Tier 1 arm, but on his way.

rushingbaseball (Chicago): Can cedric mullins be a first division regular?

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's not impossible, but a bit too rich for my blood at present.

Bobby Bradley's 40-time (MA): Can you elaborate on Dustin May's stuff jumping? Any positives with the changeup?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Velocity has jumped and he's found a tighter breaking ball that's worked for him. Change is still a work in progress, to put it politely.

Enrique (The Ranch): How would you rank the following for dynasty fantasy purposes: Cavan Biggio, Esteury Ruiz, Oneil Cruz, Shed Long, Ke'Bryan Hayes. Thanks in advance.

Jeffrey Paternostro: What a weird hodgepodge. Probably Shed/Hayes/Biggio/Cruz/Ruiz

Barry Bannon (SWFC): Here's hoping a new contract is in the works... Thoughts on whats up with Amed Rosario? Improvements coming, or more struggles to come?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I fear they are going to have sell someone and I suspect it might be Banners over Forestieri. Rosario's issues have stuck out more in part because of the quick transitions of dudes like Soto, Acuna and (especially) Gleyber. That's not to say he's been good, or even able to sustain the flashes of adequacy, but it puts it in starker relief. It's also a bit unfair since his bat was always significantly rawer than those dudes, and the Alcides Escobar season was always a decent possibility for 2018.

Robbie (Philly): I saw you just commented on Adonis Medina. What's his potential ceiling?

Jeffrey Paternostro: The reports have the stuff a little down this year. We had him as a 6/5 last year. I don't see a reason to move off that too much, but the risk factor is up.

Ryan (Montreal): Jonathan Arauz has stunk it up since his promotion. Is it just a case of adapting to the new level of competition or have we seen his best?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'm kinda off on Arauz right now.

Ryan (Montreal): Is Anthony Alford hurt?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So without looking this up or doing any research, going to guess 'yes.'

Preston (Portland): Who is a good arm to target in a dynasty league? I have lots of assets but need to invest wisely.

Jeffrey Paternostro: If you just want the best dynasty arm, target Forrest Whitley or Sixto. If you want a guy that might be undervalued at present, target Paddock or Cease. If you have some time and don't mind risk, MacKenzie Gore or Graterol. If you want safe value, well, don't invest in pitching prospects, but Keller or McKenzie.

Ken (March of Dimes): Is Gohara finished?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think he's a really good late inning guy for someone, but I have sort of always thought that.

Vance (Tampa Bay): Is Soto a top 20 outfielder for the next few years?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Is the '0' a typo?

Kenny (Dallas): Will Franklin Perez fall off lists?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Honestly depends on how he looks, if and when he comes back. He's certainly in danger of it. Previous rankings might be enough inertia to keep him on for 2019 though.

Ryan (Montreal): My apologies. The Alford question was supposed to read more like "Could an injury possibly explain why he's been so awful?"

Jeffrey Paternostro: Haha, I was just making a quip about his durability. You'd like to think so, but also the sheer length and breadth of his injury history can whittle away the athletic tools over time.

Ryan (Montreal): Have you heard much about the lower level Bahamanian kids - Kristian Robinson, Trent Deveaux, Jazz Chisholm? Thanks.

Jeffrey Paternostro: We are getting big Robinson reports, and I've been pretty impressed with Chisholm this year. DBacks system is getting fun it not good.

Chris (MI): Do you have any faith Adalberto Mondesi will finally put it all together and be a productive big leaguer?

Jeffrey Paternostro: HOW THE HELL IS HE STILL ONLY 22

Anyway, not really.

Jason (Crystal Lake): Shane Baz only had 1 k in his debut. Should I be concerned?

Jeffrey Paternostro: No

Butch (Bronx): Clint Frazier worth getting excited about again?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Think he just needs to play. Think we've gotten both too high and too low on him over the last 18 months or so.

Fred (Elm Street): Is Ryan McKenna for real or just putting up fake minor numbers?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Man the reports previous to this year were not good. I liked him okay in the Penn. Let's see how Double-A treats him in the second half.

Barry Bannon (SWFC): So long term, has Rosario fallen below mid tier guys like Segura, or lower tier guys like Semien?

Jeffrey Paternostro: So this is an interesting question I will pose another way: Where would Rosario rank on a midseason 50? We've seen real issues with the swing against major league pitching, but we've also see the tools flash. I think the point at where I start really questioning who I'd rather have long term is around Brendan Rodgers, which drops him about 20 spots from his prospect height. That feels roughly about right.

Kam (Chi-Town): Should we be worried about Michael Kopech? Can he still be a bonafide SP1?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I made a comp during list discussion that was wildly unfair and that Craig will kill me if I repeat here. Suffice to say, yes you should be a little worried.

coopr1248 (Chicago): any reason to roster hudson potts in leagues with 300 or so prospects

Jeffrey Paternostro: I mean he's probably top 300? But you can also find a sexier name I'd bet.

Ricky (18 and life): Say Jeff Hoffman got dealt to the Cardinals, are you intrigued again? Or is he finished?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Best change of scenery options go something like:

1. White Sox
2. Cardinals
3. Yankees
4. Padres

I said this last week, but I feel like he pops up as a good reliever somewhere in two years.

Bobby Bradley's 40-time (MA): How good is Corbin Martin? Possible to be in the '19 Top 101 discussion?

Jeffrey Paternostro: These dudes tend to be in discussion in like the 80-150 tier and I tend to not love them. But he's also basically having the Corbin Burnes season and Burnes made it.

earpbartman (WC): Is it worth holding onto Nate Pearson for speculative purposes or move onto some other high ceiling high risk SP prospect who's actually playing?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think he is worth holding onto, but it's a weird injury, so I wouldn't fault you for moving on to like I dunno Franklin Morales.

Kyle (TB): For Dynasty - Jesus Sanchez or Jo Adell going forward?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I've made up my mind
Don't need to think it over
If I'm wrong I am right
Don't need to look no further

Ben (NH): Carter Kieboom - the top SS prospect next year?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't know if he's a shortstop next year. Probably Lewis or Bichette anyway.

Ryan (Montreal): Does Tom Murphy keep the catching gig in Colorado? What do you think his peak season looks like?

Jeffrey Paternostro: They don't really have anyone behind him at the moment so I guess. Also I know the Age 27 peak has kinda been debunked but also dude is already 27.

Kevin (Channahon): Is Luis Castillo the reds closer by 2020?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He may have to beat out Amir Garrett.

Jeffrey Paternostro: And I totally spaced through the first half of Serbia/Switzerland. No Cup games next Friday at least and we'll be back then.

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