Portrait of Adrian Gonzalez

Adrian Gonzalez 1BMets

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2018 Projections (Rest of Season Projections - seasonal age 36)
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Birth Date5-8-1982
Height6' 2"
Weight215 lbs
Age35 years, 9 months, 14 days
WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

2004 TEX 22 16 44 42 7 10 3 0 1 16 2 6 0 0 0 7 0 0 .238 .273 .381 .227 -1.1 0.1 -0.1
2005 TEX 23 43 162 150 17 34 7 1 6 61 10 37 0 2 0 17 0 0 .227 .272 .407 .230 -3.5 -0.8 -0.4
2006 SDN 24 156 631 570 83 173 38 1 24 285 52 113 3 5 1 82 0 1 .304 .362 .500 .304 30.7 7.9 3.8
2007 SDN 25 161 720 646 101 182 46 3 30 324 65 140 3 6 0 100 0 0 .282 .347 .502 .305 46.1 7.6 5.3
2008 SDN 26 162 700 616 103 172 32 1 36 314 74 142 7 3 0 119 0 0 .279 .361 .510 .301 36.9 1.5 3.9
2009 SDN 27 160 681 552 90 153 27 2 40 304 119 109 5 4 1 99 1 1 .277 .407 .551 .341 63.3 14.6 7.9
2010 SDN 28 160 692 591 87 176 33 0 31 302 93 114 2 4 2 101 0 0 .298 .393 .511 .340 58.2 12.2 7.4
2011 BOS 29 159 715 630 108 213 45 3 27 345 74 119 6 5 0 117 1 0 .338 .410 .548 .313 36.5 8.2 4.8
2012 BOS 30 123 527 484 63 145 37 0 15 227 31 81 5 7 0 86 0 0 .300 .343 .469 .286 19.0 10.6 3.1
2012 LAN 30 36 157 145 12 43 10 1 3 64 11 29 0 1 0 22 2 0 .297 .344 .441 .288 3.3 2.8 0.6
2013 LAN 31 157 641 583 69 171 32 0 22 269 47 98 1 10 0 100 1 0 .293 .342 .461 .293 22.6 -3.4 2.1
2014 LAN 32 159 660 591 83 163 41 0 27 285 56 112 2 11 116 1 1 .276 .335 .482 .301 26.0 10.1 4.0
2015 LAN 33 156 643 571 76 157 33 0 28 274 62 107 6 3 0 90 0 1 .275 .350 .480 .302 30.8 10.9 4.5
2016 LAN 34 156 633 568 69 162 31 0 18 247 55 117 4 6 0 90 0 2 .285 .349 .435 .293 28.1 -1.2 2.8
2017 LAN 35 71 252 231 14 56 17 0 3 82 16 43 0 4 0 30 0 1 .242 .287 .355 .230 -6.9 -2.5 -0.9

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
2000 UTI A- 0 36 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .391 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2001 KNC A 127 584 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .346 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2002 PME AA 138 573 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .311 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2003 CAR AA 36 152 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .369 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2003 FRI AA 45 187 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .322 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2003 ABQ AAA 39 154 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .257 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2004 TEX MLB 16 44 .227 .272 .338 .442 .262 .257 107 -1.6 1.3 -0.8 0.1 0.0 -1.1 -0.1 -1.1 -0.1
2004 OKL AAA 123 508 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .340 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2005 TEX MLB 43 162 .230 .255 .318 .398 .253 .257 107 -5.2 4.7 -2.9 -0.8 -0.0 -3.5 -0.4 -3.5 -0.4
2005 OKL AAA 84 368 .302 .276 .347 .443 .273 .350 90 2.5 1.6 -1 5.5 -1.5 1.6 0.7 1.6 0.7
2006 SDN MLB 156 631 .304 .268 .333 .427 .264 .340 86 30.8 19.0 -12.2 7.9 -7.0 30.7 3.8 30.7 3.8
2007 SDN MLB 161 720 .305 .269 .334 .426 .260 .315 89 35.6 21.4 -13.7 7.6 2.9 46.1 5.3 46.1 5.3
2008 SDN MLB 162 700 .301 .265 .330 .414 .262 .308 89 30.6 20.2 -12.9 1.5 -0.9 36.9 3.9 36.9 3.9
2009 SDN MLB 160 681 .341 .254 .324 .407 .258 .278 87 58.4 19.6 -12.5 14.6 -2.2 63.3 7.9 63.3 7.9
2010 SDN MLB 160 692 .340 .252 .319 .394 .263 .322 85 56.4 19.1 -12.2 12.2 -5.0 58.2 7.4 58.2 7.4
2011 BOS MLB 159 715 .313 .256 .319 .407 .262 .380 109 37.6 19.3 -12.3 8.2 -8.1 36.5 4.8 36.5 4.8
2012 BOS MLB 123 527 .286 .255 .317 .412 .262 .329 105 13.7 14.4 -8.8 10.6 -0.4 19.0 3.1 19.0 3.1
2012 LAN MLB 36 157 .288 .255 .315 .399 .259 .351 95 4.4 4.3 -2.8 2.8 -2.7 3.3 0.6 3.3 0.6
2013 LAN MLB 157 641 .293 .253 .313 .397 .258 .315 100 20.2 16.9 -10.7 -3.4 -3.8 22.6 2.1 22.6 2.1
2013 MEX int 3 14 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .400 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2014 LAN MLB 159 660 .301 .254 .314 .389 .262 .294 97 25.1 17.0 -10.9 10.1 -5.3 26.0 4.0 26.0 4.0
2015 LAN MLB 156 643 .302 .258 .321 .412 .268 .294 94 26.6 17.3 -11 10.9 -2.1 30.8 4.5 30.8 4.5
2016 LAN MLB 156 633 .293 .256 .322 .413 .264 .328 92 21.3 17.9 -11.4 -1.2 0.3 28.1 2.8 28.1 2.8
2017 LAN MLB 71 252 .230 .256 .322 .425 .265 .280 91 -7.9 7.4 -4.5 -2.5 -1.8 -6.9 -0.9 -6.9 -0.9
2017 RCU A+ 6 27 .212 .273 .333 .421 .274 .227 106 -1.3 0.7 -0.5 0.6 -0.1 -1.1 -0.1 -1.1 -0.1
2017 OKL AAA 5 17 .285 .300 .361 .514 .292 .231 110 0.5 0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.0 0.7 0.0 0.7 0.0

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
2000 UTI A- 36 7 9 3 0 0 3 7 6 0 0 .310 .444 .414 .103 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0
2001 KNC A 584 86 161 37 1 17 103 57 83 5 5 .312 .386 .486 .174 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0
2002 PME AA 573 70 135 34 1 17 96 54 112 6 3 .266 .346 .437 .171 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0
2003 FRI AA 187 16 49 6 2 3 17 11 27 0 0 .283 .330 .393 .110 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0
2003 CAR AA 152 15 42 9 1 1 16 14 25 1 1 .307 .371 .409 .102 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0
2003 ABQ AAA 154 17 30 5 1 1 18 14 25 1 0 .216 .288 .288 .072 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0
2004 TEX MLB 44 7 10 3 0 1 7 2 6 0 0 .238 .273 .381 .143 .227 -1.1 0.1 -0.1
2004 OKL AAA 508 61 139 28 3 12 88 39 73 1 1 .304 .365 .457 .153 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0
2005 OKL AAA 368 61 111 17 1 18 65 32 44 0 0 .338 .404 .561 .223 .302 1.6 5.5 0.7
2005 TEX MLB 162 17 34 7 1 6 17 10 37 0 0 .227 .272 .407 .180 .230 -3.5 -0.8 -0.4
2006 SDN MLB 631 83 173 38 1 24 82 52 113 0 1 .304 .362 .500 .196 .304 30.7 7.9 3.8
2007 SDN MLB 720 101 182 46 3 30 100 65 140 0 0 .282 .347 .502 .220 .305 46.1 7.6 5.3
2008 SDN MLB 700 103 172 32 1 36 119 74 142 0 0 .279 .361 .510 .231 .301 36.9 1.5 3.9
2009 SDN MLB 681 90 153 27 2 40 99 119 109 1 1 .277 .407 .551 .274 .341 63.3 14.6 7.9
2010 SDN MLB 692 87 176 33 0 31 101 93 114 0 0 .298 .393 .511 .213 .340 58.2 12.2 7.4
2011 BOS MLB 715 108 213 45 3 27 117 74 119 1 0 .338 .410 .548 .210 .313 36.5 8.2 4.8
2012 BOS MLB 527 63 145 37 0 15 86 31 81 0 0 .300 .343 .469 .169 .286 19.0 10.6 3.1
2012 LAN MLB 157 12 43 10 1 3 22 11 29 2 0 .297 .344 .441 .145 .288 3.3 2.8 0.6
2013 MEX int 14 2 3 0 0 1 3 6 1 0 0 .429 .714 .857 .429 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0
2013 LAN MLB 641 69 171 32 0 22 100 47 98 1 0 .293 .342 .461 .168 .293 22.6 -3.4 2.1
2014 LAN MLB 660 83 163 41 0 27 116 56 112 1 1 .276 .335 .482 .206 .301 26.0 10.1 4.0
2015 LAN MLB 643 76 157 33 0 28 90 62 107 0 1 .275 .350 .480 .205 .302 30.8 10.9 4.5
2016 LAN MLB 633 69 162 31 0 18 90 55 117 0 2 .285 .349 .435 .150 .293 28.1 -1.2 2.8
2017 OKL AAA 17 1 4 0 0 1 6 0 3 0 0 .308 .235 .538 .231 .285 0.7 -0.2 0.0
2017 RCU A+ 27 4 5 2 0 0 2 3 2 0 0 .208 .296 .292 .083 .212 -1.1 0.6 -0.1
2017 LAN MLB 252 14 56 17 0 3 30 16 43 0 1 .242 .287 .355 .113 .230 -6.9 -2.5 -0.9

Plate Discipline

2008 2512 0.4797 0.4713 0.7382 0.6490 0.3076 0.8171 0.5846 0.2618 1042 -0.009256
2009 2571 0.4609 0.4411 0.7619 0.6532 0.2597 0.8204 0.6361 0.2381 1099 -0.015056
2010 2534 0.4684 0.4751 0.7683 0.6479 0.3229 0.8375 0.6460 0.2317 1020 0.002108
2011 2660 0.4665 0.4820 0.8050 0.6293 0.3531 0.8720 0.7006 0.1950 1051 -0.005589
2012 2487 0.4793 0.5131 0.8080 0.6745 0.3645 0.8582 0.7225 0.1920 946 -0.007207
2013 2341 0.4686 0.5079 0.7948 0.6746 0.3609 0.8608 0.6860 0.2052 893 -0.006766
2014 2430 0.4823 0.5111 0.7826 0.6758 0.3577 0.8460 0.6711 0.2174 911 -0.008768
2015 2434 0.4745 0.5029 0.7851 0.6771 0.3456 0.8632 0.6471 0.2149 996 -0.012226
2016 2352 0.4643 0.4851 0.7695 0.6676 0.3270 0.8450 0.6359 0.2305 0 0.000000
2017 835 0.4994 0.5054 0.7464 0.6499 0.3612 0.8339 0.5894 0.2536 0 0.000000

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-08-27 2014-08-27 DTD 0 0 - Back Stiffness -
2014-08-16 2014-08-16 DTD 0 0 - Low Back Stiffness -
2014-08-01 2014-08-01 DTD 0 0 Right Knee Contusion Sliding -
2014-07-02 2014-07-04 DTD 2 2 - Not Disclosed -
2014-03-21 2014-03-21 Camp 0 0 - Low Back Soreness - -
2014-03-17 2014-03-20 Camp 3 0 - Low Back Tightness - -
2013-09-19 2013-09-19 DTD 0 0 - Thigh Soreness Quadriceps - -
2013-09-18 2013-09-18 DTD 0 0 - Lower Leg Cramp Calf - -
2013-08-18 2013-08-19 DTD 1 1 - Neck Stiffness - -
2013-05-09 2013-05-10 DTD 1 0 - Neck Strain - -
2013-05-03 2013-05-06 DTD 3 3 - Neck Tightness - -
2013-04-27 2013-04-27 DTD 0 0 Right Lower Leg Infection - -
2013-03-24 2013-03-25 Camp 1 0 Right Forearm Contusion - -
2012-07-13 2012-07-15 DTD 2 2 - Low Back Stiffness - -
2012-07-09 2012-07-10 DTD 1 0 - General Medical Illness - -
2011-09-17 2011-09-17 DTD 0 0 Right Shoulder Weakness Been Feeling for 1 Month - -
2011-09-15 2011-09-15 DTD 0 0 Right Lower Leg Tightness Calf - -
2011-07-29 2011-07-30 DTD 1 1 - Neck Stiffness - -
2011-04-10 2011-04-10 DTD 0 0 - Fingers Contusion Foul Ball - -
2010-10-20 2010-10-20 Off 0 0 Right Shoulder Surgery Labrum 2010-10-20
2010-07-03 2010-07-04 DTD 1 1 Neck Stiffness -
2010-05-09 2010-05-09 DTD 0 0 Right Shoulder Soreness -
2009-09-16 2009-09-16 DTD 0 0 Shoulder Soreness -
2009-08-30 2009-08-30 DTD 0 0 Upper Arm Soreness Biceps -
2009-06-30 2009-06-30 DTD 0 0 Right Knee Strain -
2009-05-26 2009-05-26 DTD 0 0 General Medical Respiratory Flu -
2009-04-24 2009-04-24 DTD 0 0 Right Hand Contusion Batted Ball -


Year Team Salary
2018 NYN $545,000
2018 ATL $21,812,143
2017 LAN $22,357,143
2016 LAN $21,857,143
2015 LAN $21,857,143
2014 LAN $21,857,143
2013 LAN $21,857,143
2012 BOS $21,857,143
2011 BOS $6,300,000
2010 SDN $4,875,000
2009 SDN $3,125,000
2008 SDN $750,000
2007 SDN $500,000
2006 SDN $327,500
2005 TEX $316,000
13 yrPrevious$147,836,358
14 yrPvs + Cur$170,193,501
14 yrTotal$170,193,501


Service TimeAgentContract Status
12 y 108 dJohn Boggs7 years/$154M (2012-18)

  • 7 years/$154M (2012-18). Signed extension with Boston 4/15/11. $6M signing bonus. 12-16: $21M annually, 17-18:$21.5M annually. Partial no-trade clause. Award bonuses, including $0.1M for Gold Glove. Acquired by LA Dodgers in trade from Boston 8/25/12. Acquired by Atlanta in trade from LA Dodgers 12/16/17. DFA by Atlanta 12/16/17, released 12/18/17. Signed by NY Mets as a free agent 1/14/18 (Mets pay Major League minimum salary of $545,000 for 2018.
  • 4 years/$9.5M (2007-10), plus 2011 club option. Signed extension with San Diego 3/07. $0.5M signing bonus. 07:$0.5M, 08:$0.75M, 09:$3M, 10:$4.75M, 11:$5.5M club option, no buyout. Replaced contract renewed 3/07 (1 year/$0.385M). Price of option may increase based on awards. Award bonus: $50,000 for Gold Glove. $25,000 for All-Star. San Diego exercised 2011 option at $6.2M 11/1/10. Salary for 2011 increased by $0.1M to $6.3M with fourth-place finish in 2010 NL MVP vote. Acquired by Boston in trade from San Diego 12/6/10.
  • 1 year/$0.3275M (2006). Acquired by San Diego in trade from Texas 12/05. Signed by San Diego 2/06.
  • 1 year/$0.316M (2005). Re-signed by Texas 2/05 (split contract paying $76,400 in minors). Recalled 7/05, optioned to Triple-A 7/05, recalled 8/05.
  • 1 year (2004). Contract purchased by Texas 11/03. Signed by Texas 2/04. Optioned to Triple-A 3/04, recalled 4/04, optioned to Triple-A 4/04.
  • Acquired by Texas in trade from Florida 7/03.
  • Drafted by Florida 2000 (1-1). Chula Vista High School, Calif. $3M signing bonus.

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10 vs L (Multi) .259 .310 .362 .254
11 vs R (Multi) .294 .364 .498 .314
18 Split (Multi) .035 .055 .135 .060
19 LgAvg (Multi) .020 .029 .071 .031
30 vs L (2016) .244 .293 .310 .234
31 vs R (2016) .302 .372 .487 .317
38 Split (2016) .058 .079 .178 .082
39 LgAvg (2016) .020 .028 .073 .031

Definition of multi-year splits

BP Annual Player Comments

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BP Articles

Click here to see articles tagged with Adrian Gonzalez

BP Chats

2017-04-28 13:30:00 (link to chat)Polanco's not hitting for any power and I assume it's lingering shoulder issues. Are you worried longterm?
(Ceej from Pittsburgh)
I'm not. Shoulder injuries can take a long time to recover from, but you can recover (ask Matt Kemp or Adrian Gonzalez, among others). If he continues to be hurt, that's a problem, if he's bad while regaining health...that's pittsburgh's problem in the short term, but I wouldn't sweat it long term. I still love him. (Craig Goldstein)
2017-02-21 13:00:00 (link to chat)What level of impact do you see Cody Bellinger having in 2016? Could he possibly get enough time to be the next Dodger rookie of the year?
(madsam99 from Columbus, OH)
I really like Bellinger. The defense is spectacular. I don't think he's going to get enough playing time to warrant consideration for Rookie of the Year, especially given how crowded the Dodgers outfield is and the presence of Adrian Gonzalez (even if he's just platooning versus right-handed pitching). I'm not as optimistic on the batting average, but I think 25-30 home runs in a full-season is a realistic projection. I don't think he gets that opportunity until next year. (George Bissell)
2016-12-22 13:00:00 (link to chat)Who else do the ChiSox move now? Frazier? Quintana? Lawrie? I was thinking Abreu would be moved, but with Moncada added, they might want to keep him aound?
(Jonah from Redwood)
Frazier, for absolutely sure. He's a short-term piece, and since I think Moncada's a third baseman (again, not a scout!), he's blocking someone. Quintana I hold until I get a Sale/Eaton offer. And Laurie I trade if I can get something of worth back. Abreu I'd move in the right deal, but I wouldn't rush. Rushing trades tends to leave you with a lesser return. Imagine if the Dodgers are contending and Adrian Gonzalez has a severe injury, or the Astros are close but not close enough in July. Squeeze the extra leverage when you can. (Bryan Grosnick)
2016-08-11 14:00:00 (link to chat)5x5 OBP league, who are the top two you value most ROS at 1B: Adrian Gonzalez, Freddie Freeman, Hanley Ramirez, Brandon Belt, Chris Carter, Stephen Piscotty, Victor Martinez, Pedro Alvarez?
(Truganini from CO)
Freeman and Piscotty, with Belt and Ramirez very close behind. (J.P. Breen)
2015-04-29 20:00:00 (link to chat)i traded Adrian Gonzalez for Edwin encarnacion? Will I end up happy with this?
(Graham from richmond, va)
Yea. I'd take Encarnacion over Gonzalez right now, so I'd say you did just fine. (Bret Sayre)
2015-02-13 19:00:00 (link to chat)NL Roto Keeper league Keep 15 starters and three $0 reserves. 14 hitters, 5 outfielders, 9 pitchers on the active squad, My outfiled consists of: Gomez, Marte and Polanco, have Joc Pederson as a reserve, so can be inserted into the starting line-up at any time post draft so, I'm thinking: Heyward, Zimmerman(love the 3rd eligility) and Holliday Holiday as my draft targets for my 4th outfielder or two of them. Stanton is out of my price range, with the salary I am keeping, my main sources for power are Goldschmidt and Adrian Gonzalez. I'm heavily leaning towards Heyward, with Zim a close 2nd, Holliday 3rd choice, may have to lower my draft expectations and target a Pagan, Aoki, or Venable. Definitely have to draft 2 outfielders or 3, with one to serve in utility role Any and all thoughts are appreciated,. Thanks in advance, big fan of your work, and always enjoy these chats! Hope you are having a stellar day!
(Dragonbreath from Gurnee, IL.)
It's kind of hard to guess given that I'm not sure who grabbing Stanton impacts your salary or draft standing based on how you phrased your question. Yes, I'd definitely want Heyward, and would lean Zimmerman over Holliday due to the 3B eligibility (plus Holliday's age/gradual decline. If you have to go that next group, Pagan is your guy. Venable isn't going to play this year unless he's traded. (Mike Gianella)
2014-08-15 14:00:00 (link to chat)Will the Red Sox' offseason this year resemble their "rebuilding" 2012-2013 offseason or is this a different situation?
(Allen from San Diego)
If I had to compare the coming off-season to any in recent memory it might be 2010. That was the year they signed Carl Crawford and traded for and extended the contract of Adrian Gonzalez. There are going to be some big moves this off-season by the Red Sox and they've got the farm system to make some huge trades (we keep hearing about Giancarlo Stanton but I think Jason Heyward is a possibility too) and a big free agent signing or two. They have payroll flexibility and the need for star power at the major league level. This is going to be a big move winter for Boston. They love the World Series win (obviously) but they want to build a consistent winner and when this season is done they is a good chance they'll have finished in last place two out of the last three seasons. (Matthew Kory)
2014-07-31 19:30:00 (link to chat)Hey Ben, I have a rut at the corner infield spot in my 12 team H2H league. Specifically, I'm finding myself not starting Pedro Alvarez and needing an outfielder. What are your thoughts on him for the rest of the season and as a keeper? If he starts producing, I'll consider trading Adrian Beltre or Adrian Gonzalez instead because I expect them to return more value.
(Steve from Los Angeles)
I think this is who Alvarez is -- he can mash, but he's not going to hit above .250. I wouldn't expect much change moving forward in his career. (Ben Carsley)
2014-07-24 19:00:00 (link to chat)Looking to possibly trade for a First Baseman. Can you help me rank the following ROS and do you see much of a gap between them?- Morneau (assuming he comes back soon), Adrian Gonzalez, Hosmer, Moss. Thanks
(Wealin' Will from Deadline)
ROS I like Morneau, Gonzalez, Moss, Hosmer. (Mauricio Rubio)
2014-07-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)Trade help: Give Billy Hamilton for Jason Kipnis and Adrian Gonzalez? 10 team 12 keeper standard league
(pmitchell60 from NOLA)
I assume you're relatively set in steals, in which case this is a fine deal. Hamilton is obviously an intriguing keeper, too, but this seems like a move where you're contending so I support selling your promising asset for two who could really do some power damage for your offense (Paul Sporer)
2014-07-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)I have Joey Votto as a 6th round keeper (for perpetuity) in a 5 keeper points format. Enviable position but not this year. I am a fringe playoff team this season and don't want to give away the future but I'm wondering if Altuve (potential 5th rd keeper) and Adrian Gonzalez (not keepable) is a decent return for Votto and W Rosario? Keeping Altuve not ideal since Cano (2nd rd) is one of my other keepers so one would always be used at utility. Thanks Paul.
(Joe Sparma from Tomball)
That's a pretty strong return given Votto's current state. I trust that all of Altuve's excellence translates nicely in your format. Tough to deal Votto at a low point, but if you're contending, this is a strong move to ensure you continue to contend. (Paul Sporer)
2014-04-17 12:00:00 (link to chat)Which organizations do you admire most (maybe one NL and one AL, or more if you think it's close) when it comes to team-building vision and player development?
(Drifter from Long Branch)
That's a good question! I admire the Red Sox for the way they changed course so quickly and so successfully. It's hard to fathom but they got rid of Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, and Adrian Gonzalez and $300 million or so in future salaries (I used to know the number, but I can't recall off hand at the moment), then fired their manager after his first year. All of this falls under the category of publicly admitting huge mistakes. It probably helped that the GM changed, but still. Then they won the World Series. And now they're integrating one of the game's best farm systems with a WS winning roster. That's admirable. In the NL? I'm very interested to see if the Cubs can develop any pitching prospects to work with the talented hitters they have coming up through their system. But the easy answer there is the Cardinals who just keep winning and plugging in talent from all angles as they go. But those are obvious answers. What do you think? (Matthew Kory)
2014-02-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)How high are you on Freddie Freeman going forward? Does the power breakout ever come?
(Eddie from Pennsylvania)
Eddie, I think Freeman is a pretty solid player with a chance to improve more. The power potential is obviously there; he has the frame, the ability to hit for power to all fields, and even the odd backstory-he didn't start lifting weights until a few seasons ago-to go with it. I doubt he'll ever have a five-year stretch like Adrian Gonzalez did, where he hits around .300 with 30 bombs per season, but it wouldn't surprise me if he had a season or two like that at some point. (R.J. Anderson)
2014-01-21 18:00:00 (link to chat)12 team keeper H2H categories 6x6 (.ops & holds) I can extend K Morales for last year @ $9, Or should I drop him and overbid on Adrian Gonzales (min 2 year contract)who will be available. I have the most $$ ($100) out of $260. Only have 8 roster spots to fill out of 35 man rosters. I will have to overbid due to a few owners having $$ but few Elite players to bid on. I already plan to go hard on Abreu to fill CI spot. I'm punting average and going for power and speed with likes of Carter, Villar, ECab, Cespedez, Reddick, Braun.
(ares1800jr from San Antonio)
Hey ares:

Glad you're somewhere warm.

I never think you should "overbid" on anyone, but I hear what you're saying. Given that terrible choice, you probably want to overbid on Adrian least if you have to make the decision right now. Kendrys Morales is a fine player in your format but my concern would be that he signs somewhere where he isn't a full time player and lands in some sort of platoon or quasi-regular role. I'm not sure what your trading culture is like, but I'd try to push for a trade rather than go too far out on a limb for Gonzalez. (Mike Gianella)
2013-10-07 18:00:00 (link to chat)Brandon Belt's second half seemed very promising. Do you think he can finally climb over the hump and become a solid fantasy first basemen? What kind of stat line can do you predict next year? Thanks for the chat!
(Jim from The couch)
I've always liked Belt. He was a $22 hitter in NL-only, earning $3 less than Adrian Gonzalez and Allen Craig. He's already solid, the question for me is how much further can he climb. At one time, I thought Belt would develop into a 30 HR hitter, but his minor league track record combined with his Major League performance make this seem unlikely. Still, a 20-25 HR hitter in his prime with some speed and solid batting averages can't be overlooked. (Mike Gianella)
2013-05-29 18:30:00 (link to chat)Hey Mike, The basics: keeper league, keep 8 players forever. I tanked last year for picks and now have a great team. Got a trade offer: my Prince Fielder for his Adrian Gonzalez and David Wright. I would be replacing Nick Markakis in my utility slot. Additionally, I could ship off David Wright because I have Adrian Beltre currently at 3rd to get another player. Should I take the deal or keep Prince knowing that I have the best keeper there and will probably be fine without the other two? Thanks!
(Joe from Seattle)
Hey Joe.

I like Prince a lot but think that this is a terrific trade for you. You didn't mention what format you play, but Wright isn't that much worse than Fielder and you're getting Gonzalez instead of Markakis which I view as an upgrade. Make the deal. (Mike Gianella)
2013-02-15 12:00:00 (link to chat)Josh Hamilton and Adrian Gonzalez: Who do you want this year, who do you want going forward (keeper/dynasty)?
(AJ from Phoenix)
Gonzo now, Hamilton long-term (Jason Collette)
2013-03-08 13:00:00 (link to chat)What the heck is going on with Adrian Gonzalez's BB rate? It's cratering, but I haven't really seen any stories on it or anyone even being really concerned -- BP rates him as 4th best fantasy first basemen. Have there been any other players who've gone from 110+ walks to literally 11 in just a couple seasons?
(aschauer from LA)
Good question, aschauer. Adrian actually drew 42 walks last season (11 with the Dodgers), but yeah, he has slipped big time in that area. His BB% over the last four years are 17.5, 13.4, 10.4, and 6.1. One factor is fewer intentional walks, but even without those, his UBB% has gone 14.2, 8.4, 7.6, and 5.4. So 2009 was probably a fluke helped by the absence of any real threats surrounding him in the lineup, but there has been decline since as well. I'm not sure what to make of that, but it bears watching. (Geoff Young)
2013-03-08 13:00:00 (link to chat)Now hearing rumors that Pads are taking calls on Headley. What's the best case scenario for the Pads if he stays or he goes in your mind?
(Oldwell89 from Far, Far, Away)
Oldwell, I personally hope they keep Headley and extend him. The trouble is that right now nobody knows how much money the new Padres owners have and/or are willing to spend. Which, come to think of it, is a central theme throughout the franchise's existence. It's a little disconcerting to fans that he hasn't been locked up long-term already. It would be a shame to see Headley follow Jake Peavy, Adrian Gonzalez, and Mat Latos out of town. (Geoff Young)
2013-02-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)What are your thoughts on Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez...what can we expect from them this year in terms or production and fantasy value?
(cgraham73 from Charleston, SC)
I quite like both to be honest, AGonz especially. .300-25-100 for Gonzalez. Don't have a number projection for CC, but I like the idea of gambling on him at a discount. (Paul Sporer)
2013-02-12 13:00:00 (link to chat)First Base Fashion Sense: If I buy an Anthony Rizzo jersey today, will I be embarassed to wear it 3 years from now? I ask because I'm STILL waiting for my Hee Sop Choi jersey to become trendy and cool...
(Steve from Bay)
If you already have your Hee Sop Choi jersey and you're not afraid to admit that then I'd say go for it. I'm big fan of Rizzo. I don't know if he'll be Adrian Gonzalez but I think he'll be a solid to plus first baseman with patience and power for years to come. I'd take the plunge. (Matthew Kory)
2012-11-28 14:00:00 (link to chat)Is Adrian Gonzalez going to get his power back?
(Josh from The lonesome, crowded west)
Yes? Yes. I'm saying yes. (Ben Lindbergh)
2012-10-30 13:00:00 (link to chat)Reports going out today that Dodgers are "open to trading" Andre Ethier? Why sign him to a long-term extension earlier in the season if this was going to be the end result?
(jlarsen from chicago)
Well, when the Dodgers signed Ethier to the extension, they didn't know they would acquire Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez two months later. So that changed. Also, when healthy, Ethier has a skill set that a lot of teams could use. Sometimes signing a guy to a long-term deal can increase his trade value because potential partners know he won't walk after a year or two. (Geoff Young)
2012-10-23 13:00:00 (link to chat)So you think Guzman is Tony Clark....why not Adrian Gonzalez?
(rangerfans2 from Fort Worth, TX)
Because he's more similar to Tony Clark, especially the physical dimensions. He's a hard player to peg because he's so young. I see the hit tool, and I think he could hit for average with very good secondary skills. He's limited to 1B, but he works his ass off and he should be able to develop into a quality glove. The power is the swing state, as he could be a 10-15 type with a lot of doubles or he could take the step where the power plays at 25+. I see him as a .285+ gap hitter with 10/15 bombs and a bunch of doubles. But its so early in the process and that projection could change a bunch. (Jason Parks)
2012-06-21 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thoughts on the drop in power for Adrian Gonzalez this season? is he hurt?
(raygu1 from Burlington, NJ)
I haven't watch a lot of Gonzalez this season. Could be a number of factors, injury included. (Jason Parks)
2012-05-31 14:00:00 (link to chat)Welcome to the major leagues of chat. Did you do any booking up ahead of time, to know who asks the power questions, who the pesky submitters (the ones that foul off half a dozen Qs before sneaking one through) are, and who are the easy outs? Or is a question a question and a submitter a submitter? Who was your chatting coach?
(Bill from New Mexico)
There was a story today about Adrian Gonzalez mentoring Ryan Sweeney, where Sweeney talked about being the kind of hitter who doesn't really like to know much about the pitchers before he goes to bat. What they throw and where they throw it, but not more than that, like tendencies on particular counts and so forth. I'm perhaps the Ryan Sweeney of BP chats.

(If we extend the analogy, this means I'm going to give a lot of decent/adequate answers but never really hit a home-run. It also means I'm going to get hurt midway through.) (Jason Wojciechowski)
2012-04-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)Im wondering after all the "overhyped" red sox prospects am i foolish to get excited by will middlebrooks,xander bogaerts and brandon jacobs? Thoughts??
(jr from mass)
Who are these "overhyped" prospects of which you speak? A quick glance at Kevin's Top 11s shows that the 2007 list had Ellsbury, Pedroia, Bard,and Buchholz, 2008 had Ellsbury, Reddick, Masterson (and Middlebrooks), etc. I suppose Lars Anderson could qualify as a bust, but he's still only 24. What happened with Ryan Westmoreland couldn't have been predicted, so I'd be uncomfortable calling him overhyped. They dealt Rizzo and Kelly to San Diego for Adrian Gonzalez, and those guys are still playing well. If I'm a Red Sox fan, I'm happy with the job they've done in developing players for their own roster as well as leveraging extra talent to acquire other pieces. (Bradley Ankrom)
2012-02-23 11:00:00 (link to chat)Are you a fan of the Adrian Gonzalez trade given how things have played out so far?
(Nickles from San Francisco)
Given that Gonzalez was going to be traded, I'm okay with the return. Rizzo didn't pan out here (although it's way too early to give up on him) and Kelly no longer appears to be an ace-in-waiting. I'm not a big fan of Reymond Fuentes, but he could turn into something. So the question is whether Cashner (acquired for Rizzo), Kelly, and Fuentes are better than the two draft picks the Padres would have received had they let Gonzalez walk. It's impossible to say, but my guess is that they probably are. (Geoff Young)
2012-01-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)I am in a pseudo-dynasty format where we keep players for as long as we would like but there are salaries attached (and thus theoretically forcing some turnover in the player pool). I have an offer right now on the table of Adrian Gonzalez for Nelson Cruz, Jemile Weeks and Jordan Walden. My team is stacked at every position but 1B (thanks to Ryan Howard's decline/health issues). This trade would leave a hole at my MI position, but I feel confident I can pick up a low-end guy to fill in for Cruz and Weeks. Is this a fair deal? Salaries of Gonzo and the trio I would be sending over are essentially a wash.
(Travis from St Louis)
It sounds like you're looking to win it all this season, in which case it is perfectly reasonable to deal away a young, presumably cost effective guy like Weeks or Walden. It does sound like a steep price to pay, though (I'm assuming this is the usual 5x5 -- is it mixed or AL-only?), and it will definitely matter what kind of guys you think you can replace Cruz and Weeks with. I'd see if I could negotiate it down. (Derek Carty)
2012-01-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hey Jay. I was having a conversation with some friends and we were wondering whether the current iteration of the Red Sox has any Hall of Famers on it. What do you think? Also, if you haven't addressed this already, Posada: yes or no? Thanks for the chat!
(mattymatty2000 from Portland, OR)
There's nobody who's a lock, that's for sure. Youkilis doesn't even have 1,000 hits yet, let alone the era's de facto minimum of 2,000. Ortiz has the PED connection and the DH problem. Varitek doesn't even have Posada's credentials. Pedroia and Ellsbury have the potential but they're still mostly potential as far as building cases go - they don't even have good peak scores yet. Late note: I completely forgot about Adrian Gonzalez, who has three straight seasons of at least 6.0 WARP and doesn't turn 30 until May - he's got a stronger JAWS-based case than Pedroia so far. H/T to Cliff Corcoran for pointing out the omission.

Sad to say, the recent Red Sock who might have been building the best case for the Hall of Fame might be the guy who got away, Jonathan Papelbon, in that - much as I loathe him - he's got the talent to wind up better than Trevor Hoffman, if not Mariano Rivera. Still a looooong ways to go on that front, too. (Jay Jaffe's Hall of Fame Special)
2011-05-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)We already know Epstien is one of the best GMs in baseball. Can't argue with 2 rings in 10 years. What do you think of how his moves from last off season are panning out?
(Puppy-D from BAWSTON)
I was a bit stunned to see Sam Fuld still outhitting Carl Crawford a few days ago. I think he is pretty delighted to have Adrian Gonzalez on his squad, though, and eventually Crawford will turn it around. Now, if they can just get Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler healthy, the offseason could look about as good as it did in March. (R.J. Anderson)
2011-03-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)Pujols is the obvious No. 1 pick in most fantasy drafts. Who do you think the contenders are for No. 2?
(Honey Mustard Hound from France)
Hanley is the obvious guy. I think Adrian Gonzalez is the best opposite-field hitter in the game, and his ability to generate loft on inside pitches and sky them the other way should work out great in that ballpark. When I heard about that trade, I thought he would be a top-five pick and MVP front-runner, which I figured was aggressive. But now I work for Bloomberg Sports (, and we have him ranked 2nd overall! He's going to pile up runs and RBI in that lineup. Even so, I think the dropoff between Pujols and the No. 2 pick is probably the same as the dropoff between 2 and 10 or so. I hope to study the value of fantasy draft picks sometime soon. (Jeremy Greenhouse)
2011-03-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)I feel like I'm the only dude down on Adrian Gonzalez. Huge changes in park, pressure, new pitchers plus the shoulder injury. 2nd half I expect good things, but I think he struggles until ASB. What say you?
(Derek from Foley's)
You're not alone in being concerned about his transition to the AL, the health of his shoulder, and the downside of investing too heavily in him in a mixed fantasy league, when 1B also includes Pujols, Cabrera, Teixeira, Votto, Howard and Fielder, and that's just in the first 2-3 rounds. A-Gonz is a fine hitter who should put up big numbers, but I've seen him going as high as second overall in mock drafts and that's just insanity. (Cory Schwartz)
2011-03-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)Any hopes for Chase Headley this year?
(SLimShady from DET)
Wow, don't make it sound so dire! Headley is a very good hitter outside of PETCO Park, although he'll miss having Adrian Gonzalez around (as will that entire lineup). This is his age-27 season though, and SD is a running team so he could get 12-15 SB's again, bump up the power a tad, and end up as a useful CI/UT guy in mixed fantasy leagues. (Cory Schwartz)
2011-02-17 14:00:00 (link to chat)Hi AJ, it's Joe Hamrahi. Yes, I have some privileges :) Just wondering, what is the mood in camp with Adrian Gonzalez no longer with the Padres?
(joechris96 from New York)
There hasn't been too many days in camp without an Adrian Gonzalez question. And to answer the question, there has been a great mood in our camp. Jed and Bud Black have done a great job of handling a tough situation, and we like our team heading into camp. Player movement is a reality in our game, and we appreciate what Adrian did for this organization. At the same time, we are excited with the players we received in the trade and look forward to their time in San Diego. (A.J. Hinch)
2011-01-18 13:00:00 (link to chat)It's the baseball apocalypse. You can only pick five current major league ballplayers to save. You don't have to base it on stats or team or likeability or anything. Who do you pick?
(hannah from bay area)
What a question! I love watching Adrian Gonzalez hit, so I would like that to continue. Logan Morrison's Twitter account has guaranteed him a spot in this Final Five. Jim Thome can be saved, but only if he promises to sit in BP and hit taters all day long for my amusement as repayment for doing so. Someone needs to pitch to these guys, so it should be Jamie Moyer if for no other reason than he's Jamie Moyer. Willie Bloomquist would probably survive whether I picked him or not. Maybe he's baseball's version of the cockroach. (Marc Normandin)
2010-12-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)With Adrian Gonzalez in the fold, I guess Kevin Youkilis moves back to third. How big of hit defensively are the Red Sox taking with this move?
(Greg from Boston)
Youkilis is a very good fielding first baseman. Gonzalez is better. Beltre is a better third baseman than Youkilis, but Youk is still pretty good at the hot corner. Given the offensive performance of Gonzalez and how we shouldn't have expected a repeat performance from Beltre this year anyway, it's negligible at best in terms of overall value. (Eric Seidman)
2010-12-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)What do you think of Lars Anderson in the Boston system? Trade bait, maybe he comes back strong this coming season?
(LPD from Chicago)
Trade bait. The Adrian Gonzalez extension is going to happen, and the sooner the Sox convert Anderson's increasingly stale plaudits into something they can use, the better. (Christina Kahrl)
2010-12-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)With many of the BP staffers in Orlando, did they at least leave you the keys to the BP Porsche and wine cellar?
(dianagramr from NYC)
I wanted to drive the BP Porsche around town while they were out, but I spent too much time in the wine cellar celebrating the Adrian Gonzalez trade to drive. (Marc Normandin)
2010-12-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)You support this move for the Sox? Why not let it ride and have a choice of Agonz, Fielder or Pujols after 2011 with no NYY in the mix. I don't know how much money sox save on Gonzalez with the rumored numbers being mentioned.
(SK from DC)
Absolutely. First off, Fielder isn't that great. Terrible defensive first baseman, and really, do we know if he's a pretty good hitter or a great hitter yet? He never seems to be the same thing two years in a row, and he needs to be excellent all the time to make up for that glove. I don't think Pujols is leaving St. Louis--other teams would be in the mix solely to make sure the Cards pay up.

The Cubs love Adrian Gonzalez, and have the money to throw at him in 2012 if he was available. Eight teams inquired about him in a trade, so there is interest there. Anthony Rizzo has no future in the organization if the Sox are acquiring a first baseman anyways, so this is basically trading Casey Kelly and Reymond Fuentes for the rights to Gonzalez in 2011, as well as the right to negotiate with him during the season. I'm very optimistic he'll be signed well before the season is over.

If Boston gets Gonzalez for $22M a year, then this is a steal. Just assume $5M per win for a minute, Gonzalez is something like a $25-30M win player a year. Getting him for less money than Ryan Howard is silly, but I'll take it. (Marc Normandin)
2010-12-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)So you Red Sox joy counterbalances your Padres' sadness on the Gonzalez deal?
(formersd from San Diego)
There really isn't any Padres' sadness, honestly. Here is my thinking.

As great as Adrian Gonzalez is--and he's one of the top players in the game--he is one guy. The Padres had reason to believe the 2011 team could be a bit better, with an improved rotation, a full season of (healthy) Ryan Ludwick, Cameron Maybin possibly blossoming in center with another year in the majors, Kyle Blanks coming back from his TJ surgery, etc. If they acquire Brendan Ryan in a trade to man shortstop as is expected, and then sign someone like Derrek Lee to play first base, then you're talking about a team that could still win something like 82-85 games. Then, in 2012, you have Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, Simon Castro and maybe Drew Cumberland coming up if he continues to tear up the minors. That is an exciting roster all of a sudden, and it was brought about without fielding a terrible team.

The Padres can trade Bell and Ludwick in July and still have a decent team, assuming Aaron Cunningham or Kyle Blanks can slot into Ludwick's place and they bump Mike Adams up to the role of closer. The gloom and doom mentality coming out of San Diego after the trade of Adrian Gonzalez is almost enough to make me start a Padres' blog in response. (Marc Normandin)
2010-12-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)Woah. I realize that Adrian is "only" a 5-6 win player, which subtracted from last year's team puts the Padres in the 82-85 range. But they've lost more than him. They got surprising amounts of help from Torreabla, Eckstein, Garland, Jerry Hairston, Tejada, even Gwynn's glove. Their pitchers were very healthy. If they hadn't torn up the Giants, the race would have been over a week earlier. Not to diminish their accomplishments, but a lot went right for them in 2010 beyond the talent of their players. You'd be at home in SD, there are plenty of fans who project that most of the current farm system will be at least major league average if not stars. Let me know the next time that occurs in reality.
(Geoff Young Fan from San Diego)
Eckstein wasn't that good in 2010 except for very early on. Garland/Correia/LeBlanc is not as good as Harang/Stauffer/Luebke, especially the 2010 version's of Correia/LeBlanc. Gwynn's glove will be offset by Maybin's glove, and Maybin has a chance of hitting better than that even if he doesn't develop any further. A full season of Ludwick not dealing with his calf injury will be big for the lineup. Kyle Blanks coming back with a working elbow halfway through the season has the potential to be big for the lineup, since it won't be screwing with his swing like it did in the beginning of 2010.

A lot went right for the Padres in 2010, but plenty went wrong as well: Blanks, Correia, Chris Young, Scott Hairston, Tony Gwynn's bat, Ludwick's calf injury, Adrian Gonzalez's shoulder hampering his power.

I don't think most of the current farm system of the Padres is any good at all. But Castro is a future #2 starter, Kelly could turn into that or an ace, Rizzo is young and very talented with a lot of potential as a well-rounded hitter, and Cumberland will be fine as long as he doesn't slam his knee into a wall again. (Marc Normandin)
2010-12-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)Now that the Sox have Gonzalez, what happens to Lars Anderson now? HOw much longer until he's traded? July?
(richardkr34 from St. Paul)
Lars Anderson wasn't going to be the first baseman in Boston whether they got Adrian Gonzalez or not, because Anthony Rizzo was the first baseman of the future. Chances are good he will sit in Triple-A until someone wants to take a chance on him as part of a larger deal. (Marc Normandin)
2010-12-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)Rather have Votto or A-Gone the next 3 years?
(bateman19 from boston)
Next three years? Adrian Gonzalez. Three years after that, Votto. I think Teixeira, Gonzalez and Votto are all similar versions of the same elite-level player with some age differences. (Marc Normandin)
2010-10-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)RE: Red Sox. Re-sign V-mart, trade for Adrian Gonzalez (they have the prospects to get it done, I'm pretty sure), move Youk to third, put Lowrie at SS, and hope that the outfield can stay reasonably healthy next year. How's that for a plan?
(mattymatty2000 from Portland, OR)
I wonder if your defense tips over into a bad place at that point. Youk wasn't exactly Brooks Robinson over there. (Steven Goldman)
2010-10-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Padres' GM Jed Hoyer has made it clear that they would like to keep Adrian Gonzalez but his value seems to be far too high for them to reach. Thoughts??
(Todd Kaufmann from
They won't deal him unless what he brings back brings them a lot of major-league ready talent. That may happen, but Padres' fans can be assured that Hoyer is not just going to give him up because they feel like they can't afford him. The return will be huge. (Marc Normandin)
2010-10-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)What do the BoSox give the Tigers for Miguel Cabrera? Everything they got?
(singledigit from San Diego)
If they trade for a first baseman, it's going to be Adrian Gonzalez. But in order to get Adrian Gonzalez, they are going to have to give up a ton, and I'm not sure if Theo is ready to do that. You can't exactly pull one over on Hoyer when it comes to Red Sox prospects.

Miguel Cabrera would look pretty great in a Boston uniform, but that's because he would look pretty good in anything but Cardinal or Cincy red and Padre blue. (Marc Normandin)
2010-10-12 12:00:00 (link to chat)So....should I maybe have held off on the Bud Black extension until after he oversaw yet another historic late-season collapse? How many teams, in the span of 4 years, have seen statistical failures as big as the 2007 and 2010 Padres?
(Jed Hoyer from San Diego)
Gene Mauch to one side, I don't think managers deserve all the blame for late-season collapses. The Padres skid was definitely terrible, and losing 10 games straight is a good way to blow it. But the players played--and lost--those games. Other than Adrian Gonzalez (who hit .361/.439/.528 in those 10 games), the team just plain stunk. Some of that is on Black, but more of it is just on bad play. (Tommy Bennett)
2010-09-29 13:00:00 (link to chat)We may not need to care about what the BBWAA votes on in terms of the MVP, but doesn't it bother you that many of those outside of the BBWAA, who claim to be enlightened due to stats, just misuse advanced statistics in the same way that the more mainstream, old-school camp misuses older, less complicated metrics? Colin Wyers brought up a very good point in a recent article about how people adhered too strictly to the decimal point on something like WARP or WAR, given that the data contained within them was not perfect. So why is it that so many people sneer when someone says Adrian Gonzalez, Joey Votto and Albert Pujols have all basically been the same player in 2010?
(Marc from I'm In Your Internets)
It kind of bothers me, but it doesn't keep me up at night (at least, not to the extent that old movies do). It's a little frustrating that a primitive wrong has been replaced by a more advanced wrong, in some circles, but I'd still consider it progress. Things are moving in the right direction, don't you think?

As for your second question--well, people like definitive answers, and WAR(P) seems to offer them, if one doesn't bother to look too hard. Maybe it's a lack of sabermetric education. (Ben Lindbergh)
2010-09-21 13:00:00 (link to chat)Keep 5 of 6 next year, who ya got? (OPS/QS league) Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Gonzalez, Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, Ryan Braun, Jason Heyward
(malmstorm from Austin TX)
Miggy, Felix, Lee, Heyward, Braun. I love Adrian Gonzalez, but Petco. Braun's numbers have a weird, one-year split I expect will disappear in 2011. (Marc Normandin)
2010-08-17 14:45:00 (link to chat)The Mariners turned to pitching and defense this offseason; it completely failed them. The Padres turned to pitching and defense, and they are number 1 in both. Is there anything to be learned from these two approaches, or is it just one season?
(FangraphsFan from UZR)
The Mariners were always going to be a team that would succeed ONLY IF all of their high variance players reached the high end of that range. Dave Cameron acknowledged this over and over again before the season started, but somehow that got lost in the shuffle. The Padres have had a lot go right for them this year, but they were also 37-25 to finish last season, so this shouldn't really be too surprising. One major difference is that the Padres have actual hitters on their team like Adrian Gonzalez, while the Mariners have the likes of Jose Lopez racking up ABs. (Eric Seidman)
2010-08-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hey! Heath Bell is still under Padre control next year!
(Jed Hoyer from SD)
That he is! For some reason I thought Adrian Gonzalez had two years left with them heading into this year and Heath Bell had one. That actually makes me happier that he's sticking with them in 2011, to be honest, even at the expense of Boston (who was only signing him in my faux GM position). (Marc Normandin)
2010-07-23 13:00:00 (link to chat)I think Bob was referring to Strasburg's press attendants vs Latos' relative obscurity. Another follow-up on the Padres: Hitter or starting pitcher?
(Follow up, Bob Bailey from Not Canada)
I think this is the part where somebody does the Johnny Carson golf swing pantomime, because that angle went totally over my head. Specifics always help. That said, I have to think most pitchers would probably just as soon not have quite as much scrutiny on them as Strasburg has - pitch well and it will come to you anyway, no need to add any extra pressure to what's already among the toughest jobs in all of sports.

I think the Padres need another mid-order bat if they're serious about this thing. Right now it's Adrian Gonzalez and the Seven Dwarves in that lineup even after you adjust for the difficulty of hitting in Petco. (Jay Jaffe)
2010-07-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)What type of 1B would you target if you dealing Ubaldo in a keeper league with no restrictions on the amount of time a player can be kept?
(Richard Christy from Brunch)
Before his ERA climbs any higher, I would go for the Miguel Cabrera/Adrian Gonzalez of the world. Cabrera may be tough because he's also having his best season, but Ubaldo looks like a shiny prize to many right now. He'll regress/is already regressing, so you have to move fast to make this work. (Marc Normandin)
2010-05-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)Is there any answer for the Orioles, other than 'be patient'? The bad luck has come in waves this season, and the brutal schedule so far has not helped a young team. Do they go after a thumper like Prince or Dunn or entertain trading for Adrian Gonzalez, or do they stay patient? Is Trembley a goner?
(Geer from Birmingham, AL)
Unfortunately, the Orioles are going to have to be patient. Even if Angelos were to open the vault, top-of-the-line free agents don't want to step into a losing situation. Yes, I think Trembley is a goner. Dave is a good man but it's not working with him as the manager. (John Perrotto)
2010-03-25 14:00:00 (link to chat)What's the objective for the Padres this year? My thinking is that it's sorting through the pitching prospects.
(formersd from San Diego)
Turn Heath Bell and Adrian Gonzalez into 80 WARP from 2012-2016. (Joe Sheehan)
2010-03-17 14:00:00 (link to chat)Does Adrian Gonzalez get traded and to whom?
(Sal Toscano from FL)
I'm sort of skeptical about it under any time frame. Whereas in so many situations you might think that dealing him in 2011 instead of 2010 means that you're taking a big step down in terms of what kind of prospects you might receive in return, A-Gonz's deal is so cheap ($4.75 million this year, and a $5.5 million club option next) that he's still worth a big return next year. Then there's the Pads' anticipation that they might hang tough this year, added to the fact that he's affordable... in short, somebody's going to have really commit to dealing a lot of top talent to get him, this at a time when top talent is valued more dearly now than ever. Like I said, I'm skeptical anything gets done, because I don't know if anyone would part with what it ought to take to get him, and because there's no monster contract pushing the Padres to make a deal. (Christina Kahrl)
2010-03-04 13:00:00 (link to chat)If it's a metal kind of day, I urge you to listen to Brain Drill. One of the craziest bands I have ever heard. Do you think the White Sox will be able to pull off a deal for Adrian Gonzalez without Beckham (maybe Flowers and Mitchell)?
(Matt from Bloomington)
I hope not, but I'm a Pads fan. I expect a king's ransom in return for Gonzalez, though honestly I think I just want the Padres to keep him. Power hitters who can hit at Petco are a rarity. (Marc Normandin)
2010-02-11 13:00:00 (link to chat)Which team do you see Adrian Gonzalez playing for on Opening Day 2011? I'm thinking the Pads move him at the trade deadline once they come to the realization that their 2010 team is not playoff bound.
(Travis from San Diego)
The Red Sox are a pretty obvious fit, for a bunch of reasons (they have the cash to extend him, plenty of prospects, good relationship with Hoyer (obviously), Papi wearing down, etc).

On a somewhat related note, with the Yankees officially out of the 1B game for a long, long time, guys like Gonzalez are really gonna have to work hard to find alternative bidders. If only you could short 1B futures.... (Shawn Hoffman)
2010-02-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)Pick two of these for my final keepers? Tulo, Adrian Gonzalez, Mark Reynolds. I'm leaning Tulo and Adrian. (already keeping Miguel Cabrera, Lincecum and Kemp)
(malmstorm from Minneapolis)
Tulo and Adrian is how I would pick as well. Reynolds did much better last year than I ever expected him to, but I would have a hard time giving him a keeper pick based off of just the one season. (Marc Normandin)
2010-01-28 14:00:00 (link to chat)Everybody assumes Adrian Gonzalez is going to be traded this year, but I can't see a fit, either for need or with the necessary prospects to deal. What do you think?
(dcoonce from bloomington, indiana)
I really think the AGonz chatter is a matter of wishcasting from those who envy the Padres their possession of him. He's signed cheaply through 2011, and they're taking themselves somewhat seriously. (Christina Kahrl)
2010-01-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)Do you think Adrian Gonzalez will be in San Diego this time next year? Thanks for the chat!
(mattymatty2000 from Philly)
I think it all depends on how the Padres get out of the gate this season. If they play well and Jed Hoyer feels that he might be able to cobble together a contending team by 2011 then Gonzalez stays. If Hoyer feels he needs to begin a total rebuild then Gonzalez goes. (John Perrotto)
2009-12-29 15:00:00 (link to chat)july 13, 2010 noon: Bucholz, Ellsbury and Alex wilson (KG#13) for Adrian Gonzalez; I'll take your answer knowing you are a Yankee fan, thanks!
(mo from las vegas)
The Padres need to have the value in a deal have less service time than those two players. It's reasonable on talent, but not on financial structure for their team. (Joe Sheehan)
2009-12-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)Adrian Gonzalez has given the Padres $69.3 million in production according to fan graph for only 5.1 million in salary. Is there a reason that they should trade him?
(Jake H from Kansas City)
I'm not of the mind that they HAVE to do the deal, because I do think there's a tangible virtue in keeping him around as the team continues its rebuilding effort, and that it can be felt at the box office. Just the same, I do think there's value they're leaving on the table by not taking advantage of his well-below-market contract at a time when they're not really expecting to be competitive in the NL West. (Jay Jaffe)
2009-12-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thoughts about Mike Gonzalez to the O's? Garrett Atkins' chances of rebounding? Next move(s) for the O's that would make sense? Personally, I like both moves (and the Millwood one last week) given their relatively low cost (short commitments to all three players) and fit with the Orioles' long range plans. How about you? Do you see them "really" playing for M. Holliday or AGon?
(BartPachino from Northridge, CA)
Not wild about either move, though Gonzo is flippable if need be, and the length, as you say, isn't bad. I like the Millwood move more.

I don't see them in on Holliday, but the depth of their young pitching makes going after Adrian Gonzalez a viable possibility. (Jay Jaffe)
2009-12-15 14:00:00 (link to chat)Which ball park will Adrian Gonzalez call home next year? If it's not Petco, he could put up some awesome numbers, no?
(uptick from St. Louis)
They'll be awesome anywhere. The thing I love about having him in Petco is that his contract's just $10.25 million over the next two years (or what's perhaps now best judged as, "less than the White Sox are paying Juan Pierre out of their own pockets"), and that fact's tremendously valuable in itself. You also get to offer him arbitration for 2012, and that wouldn't hurt you, either way, accepted or not. Maybe the Pads can't get to the playoffs in either of the next two seasons, but at that price, he very well could be part of it if they have a few other things work out. Taken together, the package you take to deal A-Gonz has to be a sox-knocker. It's up to Boston (or whoever) to make it so. (Christina Kahrl)
2009-11-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)What teams do you see lining up to trade for Miguel Cabrera?
(Greg from St. Louis )
I wonder if he would be the backup plan for the Red Sox if they cannot land Adrian Gonzalez. They could certainly stand to part with talent and absorb Cabrera's contract, and they are known to be seeking another bopper. (Eric Seidman)
2009-12-01 13:00:00 (link to chat)Biggest name traded this offseason will be ___? (non Halladay division)
(paulbellows from Calgary)
Good question. I'll say Adrian Gonzalez, though I'm still not sure if the Padres are serious about that. (Marc Normandin)
2009-09-24 14:00:00 (link to chat)Is Adrian Gonzalez a left handed hitting Evan Longoria? Who would you build a team around?
(andy from san diego)
The third baseman who's a lot younger. (Joe Sheehan)
2009-09-17 14:00:00 (link to chat)Do the Mets have what it takes (in their farm) to get either Roy Halladay or Adrian Gonzalez in an offseason trade? I argue no, but my Mets-loving friend swears they'll get one or the other...
(DanLong from NYC)
No, no. (Kevin Goldstein)
2009-09-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)You're Snakeskin Boots Colletti for a day at the winter meetings. Given that your major league rotation and upper level minors are relatively thin at the moment, are you still trying to get Adrian Gonzalez, and if so, how hard are you trying?
(jtreadway from Caribbean Sea)
First off, maybe it's growing up on a ranch talking, but if I'm wearing boots, they better be of a kind I'm not afraid to wear outdoors. Second, I keep after Adrian Gonzalez with a passion, because he's signed through 2011 for a lot less than it will take to sign a similarly valuable bat. (Christina Kahrl)
2009-08-28 13:00:00 (link to chat)You've mentioned the possibility of Adrian Gonzalez being traded this offseason. Other than the Dodgers (who you've mentioned), what other teams would be in on it? And if Prince is made available, how would that change the market?
(Capt Science from New York)
I think a bunch of teams would be in on Adrian Gonzalez as he is an outstanding offensive players who is making a pittance. Fielder would alter the market but I think Gonzalez would be more attractive because of his lower salary. (John Perrotto)
2009-08-28 13:00:00 (link to chat)If the Padres are serious about trading Adrian Gonzalez this offseason, is the TEX package the Rangers got for Texeira the starting point? Or have GM's wised up since then after seeing Andrus, Feliz, et al contribute so much?
(Kyle Reese from The Future)
I think GMs have wised up. The Padres won't get a Teixeira-type haul but I think they'll get a lot. At least three pretty good youngins. (John Perrotto)
2009-07-30 14:00:00 (link to chat)Are the Red Sox making a big move or two in the next 26 hours? Are they acting urgent, and what do you foresee?
(jlewando from DC)
They are trying like heck to make a big move. They're in on all the big names trying to make something happen. They seem fixated on Adrian Gonzalez and have the prospects to get him if they're willing to empty out part of the farm system. (John Perrotto)
2009-07-31 14:00:00 (link to chat)Should the Padres be able to get a better package for Adrian Gonzalez than the Blue Jays could get for Roy Halladay in part given Gonzalez's favorable contract?
(Jeff from San Diego)
I think that is canceled out by the gap between being an ace starter and a first baseman, but it is a good point. The Padres, like the Jays, have to make the RIGHT call, not just the immediate one. (Joe Sheehan)
2009-06-18 13:00:00 (link to chat)Where do you stand on the idea of the Pads moving Adrian Gonzalez to the highest bidder? I fought it for a while, but I believe that it needs to be done in order to add solid young talent. I went to the game last night, and the only one of the starting nine that's above replacement level is AG. As a lifelong fan, it's quite depressing.
(Travis from San Diego)
I hate to see him go, given how nice his contract is to that front office, but if they can pull in a megaton prospect or two--something the Padres desperately need--then you may have to. I haven't seen as many Padres games as I would like--moving out of Boston knocked me away from bars with any game I wanted on TV--so my depression has been relegated to scoreboards. (Marc Normandin)
2009-06-03 15:00:00 (link to chat)Adrian Gonzalez is reaching the point at which Boston could consider trading Clay Bucholtz, if he was offered, right?
(dcoonce from bloomington, indiana)
By every indication from the new Moorad ownership, Adrian Gonzalez is not leaving San Diego. (Jay Jaffe)
2009-06-03 15:00:00 (link to chat)Step back from his hot start and give us the scoop on Adrian Gonzalez. Is this a career year or a step forward? What should we expect for the rest of the season and (especially) the next few years?
(Craig from New Haven)
Gonzalez is sort of the poor man's Mark Teixiera - a great hitter and a very good defender, though he's not a switch-hitter and instead of landing in a hitter-friendly environment he's stuck in a rather rough one. He's put up three .300 EqAs in a row already, and it looks as though he's amid a perfect storm of his own age 27 season and a juiced ball (or whatever it is producing the homer spike) which could give him career-high numbers.

I don't understand the thinking that the Padres *need* to trade him, and I applaud the aforementioned Moorad statement. He's great, he's affordable, and unless they're absolutely bowled over by an offer, they don't need to move him. (Jay Jaffe)
2009-05-21 14:00:00 (link to chat)Is Chase Utley at NL 2B the easiest of the All-Star picks? I mean, even Adrian Gonzalez is giving "some" sort of competition to Pujols. But Utley is just far above everyone, isn't he? Is he still somehow the most underrated player in baseball?
(Taco from Philly)
Pujols, although Utley is up there. You can't not pick the best player in baseball, no matter what the other guys are doing. (Joe Sheehan)
2009-04-16 13:00:00 (link to chat)I think the Padres have a real chance of making it this year!
(Oranguntang from Sevilla)
I wish. Sadly, I see more of Jake Peavy and Chris Young doing well with no one caring, and Adrian Gonzalez and Brian Giles being top 15-20 hitters in the NL again while most of the rest of the lineup lags behind (but not you Jody Gerut, we love you). (Marc Normandin)
2009-04-16 13:00:00 (link to chat)How about Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox for the fruit of their farm system? That would be a winner for everybody!
(Phillip from Anatolia)
That's so tempting, but with Lars Anderson on the way, I'm not sure it's a good move for the Red Sox. Gonzalez is amazing, but when you balance what they would have to give up to acquire him and then measure that against what Anderson could give you... (Marc Normandin)
2008-11-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)If the Padres trade Peavy wouldn't it make sense to trade Adrian Gonzalez as well? What do you think they're likely to get for either or both of them?
(Steve from McQueens)
Yes, especially since Kyle Blanks is coming up hard on Gonzalez's flank. He's not quite as good as Gonzalez, but the raw power will play, even in that park. You have to trade Peavy first; once you do that, then it's clearly a rebuild.

For Peavy, I've said three guys: one top 25, one top 50, one top 100, at least two of whom can be on the field in August. For Gonzalez, less than that; the Padres could deal him and focus on some low-minors up-the-middle guys, as they've struggled mightily to fill those spots. (Joe Sheehan)
2008-09-09 13:30:00 (link to chat)In a strat league where a player is limited to the number of plate appearances he had in real life, is it a reasonable strategy to bat guys with tons of usage up at the top, regardless of whether they have the attributes for the lineup slot? For example does lineup order matter enough to avoid batting Adrian Gonzalez leadoff? Theriot 5th? Longoria 8th? I am somewhat inclined to just fill out the card in reverse order of available usage thinking that it is better to have my best players out there as many games as possible regardless of where they bat.
(LindInMoskva from DC)
I don't worry about usage in a league like that until midway through the season, because you can always bench guys when you're out of it, and if you're contending, you can acquire PT in the trade market or micromanage over the last half of the year. I would never structure my lineup--and because the cards have known values, lineups are more important in Strat than in real life--worrying about usage. (Joe Sheehan)
2008-07-29 16:00:00 (link to chat)Padres trade: Adrian Gonzalez, Greg Maddux, Heath Bell Yankees send: Austin Jackson, Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera, Cano and a throw-in of Kei Igawa
(dcoonce from bloomington, indiana)
You've been at Nick's early, haven't you? (Will Carroll)
2008-07-23 13:00:00 (link to chat)Fantasy Q: Should I trade Soto for Adrian Gonzalez? I'd be replacing Soto with Iannetta. Thanks!
(boom-boom from Iowa City)
Well, all fantasy trades depend on format, but as a baseball proposition, I love Geovany Soto and would need more than Gonzalez to feel right about dealing him. (Nate Silver)
2008-07-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)Where does Adam Dunn finish the year?
(Carlos from CA)
I wish the Padres would come out of nowhere and pick him up, then sign him to an extension. I know they need defense in that expansive outfield, but they also really, really need more bats than Brian Giles and Adrian Gonzalez. (Marc Normandin)
2008-06-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)Here's your crazy blockbuster - What about Adrian Gonzalez to the yanks for Kennedy, Melky, Igawa and either Jackson or Hughes? Solves problems for both teams, and Kennedy could be a good pitcher in that park and league.
(dcoonce from bloomington, Indiana)
Not happening. Igawa has no value, Kennedy and Hughes are hurt, and Melky isn't hitting. You're talking about a Gold Glove-caliber first baseman who's 26 and on pace for 40 spanks while playing half his games in Petco. (Dayn Perry)
2008-06-06 13:00:00 (link to chat)Any further insight into why Smoak fell to 11th? I can't remember reading or hearing anything negative about him on this site or any other. Given everything I read, I was kind of shocked he wasn't considered a lock for the top 6 picks. Are Teixeira/Chipper comps really justified as his upside, or is that just silly? By the way, switch-hitting Adrian Gonzalez is sounding almost as good as Teixeira/Chipper these days!
(mymrbig from New Orleans)
There's no real answer here. By the time morning arrived, you could run about six scenarios in your head and no matter what, one of these big college dudes was going to fall through no fault of his own. It could have been Posey, Crow, or Alonso, but it was Smoak. I really do think he's that good a prospect, I think he has real impact possibilities. (Kevin Goldstein)
2008-05-27 13:00:00 (link to chat)Is there any solution to the Mets' currently gaping hole at first base?
(Jessica from NYC)
I'd imagine that you could get Dmitri Young pretty cheaply. Todd Helton. Maybe even Adrian Gonzalez, although he's going to cost you a fortune. But quite a few of the teams that look like they might be selling have a viable option at first base. (Nate Silver)
2008-03-25 14:00:00 (link to chat)Christina, will the power that James Loney flashed last year continue to develop? How is his glove compared to the rest of the league?
(jasonbradleymill from Tucson, AZ)
For Loney, developing and retaining power is going to be key, because the "danger" is tht he becomes merely someone who fits into the Cecil Cooper/Chris Chambliss class of "Pretty good first basemen," and still a rung or two below the best at the position. It's not a bad thing if that's "all" he is, but given his youth and talent, it's hard to resist wishing for more. Afield, he's one of the better defenders in the NL, but keep in mind the league has a number of excellent-fielding first basemen (Adrian Gonzalez and Derrek Lee come to mind, and then there's that Pujols person). (Christina Kahrl)
2008-03-06 13:00:00 (link to chat)How long do you think it will take for the Pads to realize that Chase Headley should be their first baseman?
(sndvl99 from Tarzana, CA)
Well, they've got Adrian Gonzalez, who was the only Padre hitter to meet his PECOTA projection last year. He's signed through 2010 and he's just 26, so I don't see him moving anywhere soon. (Jay Jaffe)
2008-02-07 14:00:00 (link to chat)What are your thoughts on Adrian Gonzalez? It seems that all he really need to do to have a monster year is to increase his walk total.
(sndvl99 from Tarzana, CA)
It's not like it'll bounce up too much, at least his UIBBs. The park holds down his numbers, and he derives a lot of value from his defense, both of which make him underrated. Good player without much growth left. (Joe Sheehan)

BP Roundtables

DateRoundtable NameComment
2010-07-13 16:30:00All-Star GameNothing can bring down my love of Adrian Gonzalez. Especially since Mark Teixeira is already entrenched in pinstripes. (Marc Normandin)
2010-07-13 16:30:00All-Star GameAdrian Gonzalez is hitting .350/.412/.644 on the road. Name me five hitters better than Adrian Gonzalez in the majors. (Marc Normandin)
2010-04-05 09:30:00Season Opener Roundtablenoahbraun (San Diego): Can anyone make an arguement against Adrian Gonzalez being the leagues most valuable player? most valuable to his team. without Gonzalez the Padres would be in 6th place (hint to joke. only 5 teams in west)

First person to came to mind when I read this was Ryan Zimmerman. You could make an argument, I suppose, about Adam Dunn being the second bopper, but Zimmerman is a much more complete player. (Steph Bee)
2010-04-05 09:30:00Season Opener RoundtableMatt Ryan (San Diego): More likely to happen next year: Stephen Strasburg winning the Cy Young, or the Padres winning the west?

Strasburg. Granted, he has to compete with the likes of Halladay, Lincecum, Haren, Oswalt, Santana, Wainwright, Carpenter...(you get the picture), but the Padres don't have the immediate firepower to overtake a team like the Rockies, especially if they deal their greatest offensive weapon, Adrian Gonzalez. (Steph Bee)
2010-04-05 09:30:00Season Opener RoundtableDear Padres,

I can deal with Tony Gwynn leading off, but David Eckstein in the #2 spot is just not acceptable. Adrian Gonzalez and Kyle Blanks need people to drive in.


Marc (Marc Normandin)
2009-10-28 17:00:002009 WS Game OneUtley was always a very good prospect, but never that crazy elite. He was the 15th overall pick in 2000, and that was one of the worst first rounds . . . ever. Of the 14 taken ahead of Utley, only seven even got to the big leagues, and only Adrian Gonzalez and Rocco Baldelli (breifly) were any good. When he was at Triple-A, he was seen as a very good offense-first 2B who could hit .280 with 15-20 bombs a year. He just never showed this big power in the minors, and he wasn't nearly as patient a hitter, either. (Kevin Goldstein)
2008-10-22 16:30:00World Series Game OneIt's like pitchability. I know it when I see it. You have to establish whether there's a performance gap--hell, MGL will tell you the platoon difference can't be determined because you don't get enough ABs--and then take into account everything else the player does. If Howard played first base like Adrian Gonzalez, then he'd warrant the lineup spot.

But when you know the guy can't hit lefties, and he's a net negative everywhere else...what's the point?

To pull an example...Curtis Granderson (before this year) couldn't hit lefties. But you could drop him in the lineup and he'd be a viable starter that way.

And just since we're kind of in the neighborhood...this is what bugs me. If it was the eighth, it would be Romero facing Pena. But in the ninth, it's Lidge. That's dumb; the inning is a non-factor, but the platoon differentials--or if you prefer, skill sets, are the same.
(Joe Sheehan)

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