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Portrait of Max Scherzer

Max Scherzer P  

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2019 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 34)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
145.0 3.16 1.02 184 10 7 0 3.0
Birth Date7-27-1984
Height6' 3"
Weight208 lbs
Age38 years, 2 months, 6 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
8.02015
7.72016
7.32017
7.72018
3.02019
proj
WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA..
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA- WARP
2008 ARI MLB 16 7 56.0 0 4 0 48 21 66 5 101 7.7 3.4 0.8 10.6 0% .307 1.23 3.29 3.05 78 2.96 63.2 1.6
2009 ARI MLB 30 30 170.3 9 11 0 166 63 174 20 101 8.8 3.3 1.1 9.2 0% .308 1.34 3.82 4.12 88 3.63 77.8 3.7
2010 DET MLB 31 31 195.7 12 11 0 174 70 184 20 113 8.0 3.2 0.9 8.5 0% .297 1.25 3.67 3.50 90 3.48 78.5 4.1
2011 DET MLB 33 33 195.0 15 9 0 207 56 174 29 108 9.6 2.6 1.3 8.0 0% .314 1.35 4.17 4.43 99 4.05 94.0 2.3
2012 DET MLB 32 32 187.7 16 7 0 179 60 231 23 105 8.6 2.9 1.1 11.1 0% .333 1.27 3.21 3.74 79 2.76 63.2 5.3
2013 DET MLB 32 32 214.3 21 3 0 152 56 240 18 100 6.4 2.4 0.8 10.1 0% .259 0.97 2.76 2.90 78 2.48 59.3 6.4
2014 DET MLB 33 33 220.3 18 5 0 196 63 252 18 104 8.0 2.6 0.7 10.3 0% .315 1.18 2.87 3.15 85 3.04 74.5 4.9
2015 WAS MLB 33 33 228.7 14 12 0 176 34 276 27 95 6.9 1.3 1.1 10.9 0% .268 0.92 2.79 2.79 71 2.14 49.9 8.0
2016 WAS MLB 34 34 228.3 20 7 0 165 56 284 31 89 6.5 2.2 1.2 11.2 35% .255 0.97 3.27 2.96 78 2.42 53.6 7.7
2017 WAS MLB 31 31 200.7 16 6 0 126 55 268 22 96 5.7 2.5 1.0 12.0 38% .245 0.90 2.91 2.51 71 2.32 49.4 7.3
2018 WAS MLB 33 33 220.7 18 7 0 150 51 300 23 101 6.1 2.1 0.9 12.2 35% .265 0.91 2.61 2.53 73 2.29 51.1 7.7
2019 WAS MLB 27 27 172.3 11 7 0 144 33 243 18 102 7.5 1.7 0.9 12.7 41% .322 1.03 2.40 2.92 58 2.48 50.9 6.2
CareerMLB3653562290.0170890188361826922541017.42.41.010.639%.2921.093.123.20792.8063.465.1

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg LG G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA-
2007 VIS A+ CLF 3 3 17.0 2 0 0 5 2 30 0 87 2.6 1.1 0.0 15.9 0% .192 0.41 0.77 0.53 34 0.96 19.7
2007 MOB AA SOU 14 14 73.7 4 4 0 64 40 76 3 95 7.8 4.9 0.4 9.3 0% .310 1.41 3.64 3.91 89 4.36 89.4
2007 SUR Wnt AFL 8 0 12.7 1 1 0 6 5 18 1 4.3 3.5 0.7 12.8 0% .185 0.87 2.90 2.13 0 0.00 0.0
2008 ARI MLB NL 16 7 56.0 0 4 0 48 21 66 5 101 7.7 3.4 0.8 10.6 0% .307 1.23 3.29 3.05 78 2.96 63.2
2008 TUC AAA PCL 13 10 53.0 1 1 0 35 22 79 2 113 5.9 3.7 0.3 13.4 0% .289 1.08 2.35 2.72 53 1.49 30.5
2008 PDD Wnt AFL 4 4 24.0 1 0 0 16 5 24 3 6.0 1.9 1.1 9.0 0% .210 0.88 4.77 3.38 0 0.00 0.0
2009 ARI MLB NL 30 30 170.3 9 11 0 166 63 174 20 101 8.8 3.3 1.1 9.2 0% .308 1.34 3.82 4.12 88 3.63 77.8
2009 VIS A+ CLF 1 1 4.7 0 0 0 1 4 5 0 90 1.9 7.7 0.0 9.6 0% .100 1.06 4.82 1.91 98 2.04 43.0
2010 DET MLB AL 31 31 195.7 12 11 0 174 70 184 20 113 8.0 3.2 0.9 8.5 0% .297 1.25 3.67 3.50 90 3.48 78.5
2010 TOL AAA INT 2 2 15.0 2 0 0 4 2 17 0 104 2.4 1.2 0.0 10.2 0% .121 0.40 1.42 0.60 0 0.00 0.0
2011 DET MLB AL 33 33 195.0 15 9 0 207 56 174 29 108 9.6 2.6 1.3 8.0 0% .314 1.35 4.17 4.43 99 4.05 94.0
2012 DET MLB AL 32 32 187.7 16 7 0 179 60 231 23 105 8.6 2.9 1.1 11.1 0% .333 1.27 3.21 3.74 79 2.76 63.2
2013 DET MLB AL 32 32 214.3 21 3 0 152 56 240 18 100 6.4 2.4 0.8 10.1 0% .259 0.97 2.76 2.90 78 2.48 59.3
2014 DET MLB AL 33 33 220.3 18 5 0 196 63 252 18 104 8.0 2.6 0.7 10.3 0% .315 1.18 2.87 3.15 85 3.04 74.5
2015 WAS MLB NL 33 33 228.7 14 12 0 176 34 276 27 95 6.9 1.3 1.1 10.9 0% .268 0.92 2.79 2.79 71 2.14 49.9
2016 WAS MLB NL 34 34 228.3 20 7 0 165 56 284 31 89 6.5 2.2 1.2 11.2 35% .255 0.97 3.27 2.96 78 2.42 53.6
2017 WAS MLB NL 31 31 200.7 16 6 0 126 55 268 22 96 5.7 2.5 1.0 12.0 38% .245 0.90 2.91 2.51 71 2.32 49.4
2018 WAS MLB NL 33 33 220.7 18 7 0 150 51 300 23 101 6.1 2.1 0.9 12.2 35% .265 0.91 2.61 2.53 73 2.29 51.1
2019 WAS MLB NL 27 27 172.3 11 7 0 144 33 243 18 102 7.5 1.7 0.9 12.7 41% .322 1.03 2.40 2.92 58 2.48 50.9

Plate Discipline

YEAR Pits Zone% Swing% Contact% Z-Swing% O-Swing% Z-Contact% O-Contact% SwStr%
2008 893 0.5286 0.4647 0.7060 0.6398 0.2684 0.7781 0.5133 0.2940
2009 2966 0.5341 0.4629 0.7618 0.6256 0.2764 0.8052 0.6492 0.2382
2010 3284 0.5231 0.4495 0.7690 0.5902 0.2950 0.8373 0.6190 0.2310
2011 3333 0.5062 0.4587 0.7639 0.6224 0.2910 0.8229 0.6347 0.2361
2012 3262 0.4969 0.4736 0.7133 0.6484 0.3010 0.7688 0.5951 0.2867
2013 3387 0.4978 0.4683 0.7201 0.6293 0.3086 0.7747 0.6095 0.2799
2014 3616 0.5207 0.4765 0.7290 0.6421 0.2966 0.7907 0.5837 0.2710
2015 3348 0.5645 0.5424 0.6861 0.6889 0.3525 0.7550 0.5117 0.3139
2016 3553 0.5345 0.5106 0.6731 0.6535 0.3464 0.7478 0.5113 0.3269
2017 3088 0.5155 0.5084 0.6713 0.6533 0.3543 0.7644 0.4887 0.3287
2018 3480 0.5293 0.5178 0.6654 0.6585 0.3596 0.7461 0.4992 0.3346
2019 2768 0.5177 0.5220 0.6595 0.6734 0.3596 0.7503 0.4771 0.3405
Career369780.52210.48930.71030.64390.32040.77840.56100.2897

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-07-19 2014-07-19 DTD 0 0 - Neck Tightness -
2012-10-02 2012-10-02 On-Alr 0 0 Right Ankle Sprain Celebrating - -
2012-09-24 2012-10-03 DTD 9 9 Right Shoulder Fatigue - -
2012-09-19 2012-09-23 DTD 4 3 Right Shoulder Fatigue - -
2012-06-29 2012-07-08 DTD 9 9 Right Thigh Tightness Hamstring - -
2012-04-09 2012-04-13 DTD 4 3 - General Medical Illness - -
2010-03-23 2010-03-28 Camp 5 0 Right Fingers Blister Index Finger -
2009-03-29 2009-04-14 15-DL 16 7 Right Shoulder Stiffness -
2009-02-18 2009-03-17 Camp 27 0 Right Shoulder Fatigue -
2008-06-21 2008-07-19 Minors 28 0 Right Shoulder Inflammation Fatigue -
2006-04-08 2006-05-16 Coll 38 0 Right Shoulder Inflammation Biceps Tendinitis - In College Miss Couple of Starts -
2006-03-01 2006-03-01 Coll 0 0 Right Shoulder Inflammation Tendonitis In College Miss 2 Start -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2024 NYN $43,333,334
2023 NYN $43,333,333
2022 NYN $43,333,333
2021 WAS $34,503,480
2020 WAS $35,920,616
2019 WAS $37,405,562
2018 WAS $22,142,857
2017 WAS $22,142,857
2016 WAS $22,142,857
2015 WAS $17,142,857
2014 DET $15,525,000
2013 DET $6,725,000
2012 DET $3,750,000
2011 DET $600,000
2010 DET $1,500,000
2009 ARI $1,450,000
YearsDescriptionSalary
13 yrPrevious$220,951,086
2019Current$43,333,333
14 yrPvs + Cur$264,284,419
2 yrFuture$86,666,667
16 yrTotal$350,951,086

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
13 y 79 dBoras Corp.3 years/$130M (2022-24)

Details
  • 3 years/$130M (2022-24). Signed by NY Mets as a free agent 11/30/21. 22-23:$43,333,333 annually. 24:$43,333,334. Scherzer may opt out of contract after 2023 season. Annual performance bonuses: $100,000 each for All Star, LCS MVP. $150,000 for WS MVP. $200,000 each for Cy Young or MVP ($150,000 for second place in MVP or CY vote, $50,000 for third in MVP or CY vote). Full no-trade clause. At signing, highest average annual value in Major League history.
  • 7 years/$210M (2015-21). Signed by Washington as a free agent 1/21/15. $50M signing bonus. Bonus paid $5M in 2015 and $15M each in 2019, 2020, 2021, with payments in equal semiannual installments, April-September. Salaries: 15:$10M, 16-18:$15M annually. 19-21:$35M annually. 2019-21 salaries ($105M) deferred without interest, to be paid in seven $15M installments each July 1 from 2022 to 2028. Deferrals reduce contract's present-day value to $191,401,086 (by MLB calculation) or $191,409,858 (MLBPA calculation). For purposes of annual payrolls (including salaries and a pro-rated share of the signing bonus), Scherzer will earn $17,142,857 in 2015, $22,142,857 annually in 2016-18, $37,405,562 in 2019, $35,920,616 in 2020, and $34,503,480 in 2021 (salaries and bonus paid before the contract expires are not discounted, but 2019-21 salaries are discounted to $30,262,705, $28,777,759 and $27,360,623, respectively, as salaries paid after deal's expiration). For luxury-tax purposes, Scherzer's annual salary is $28,689,376. Award bonuses: $0.1M each for All Star, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger. $0.15M for LCS MVP. $0.25M for WS MVP. $0.5M each for MVP, Cy Young, with $0.25M for second place in either award vote, $0.15M for third, $0.1M for fourth, $75,000 for fifth. Perks: suite on road. Deal does not include no-trade protection. Scherzer will gain right to block any trade as 10-and-5 player after 2019 season. Acquired by LA Dodgers in trade from Washington 7/30/21.
  • 1 year/$15.525M (2014). Re-signed by Detroit 1/17/14 (avoided arbitration). Detroit made qualifying offer 10/31/14.
  • 1 year/$6.725M (2013). Re-signed by Detroit 2/4/13 (avoided arbitration, $7.4M-$6.05M).
  • 1 year/$3.75M (2012). Re-signed by Detroit 1/17/12 (avoided arbitration).
  • 1 year/$600,000 (2011). Re-signed by Detroit 3/11.
  • 4 years/$4.3M (2007-10). Signed Major League contract with Arizona 5/30/07. Performance bonus to $6M. Recalled 9/07. Optioned to Triple-A 3/13/08. Recalled 4/27/08. Optioned to Triple-A 6/13/08. Acquired by Detroit in trade from Arizona 12/9/09. Optioned to Triple-A 5/16/10. Recalled 5/30/10.
  • Drafted by Arizona 2006 (1-11) (Missouri).

2019 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA DRA VORP WARP
Weighted Mean?????0.0?00?.0000.000.00?0.00.0

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA DRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
202035131103333217158562622837.2790.983.253.716.52.310.81.23.8
202136121003030193142522282537.2791.013.403.886.62.410.71.23.1
20223711902828169128422022237.2881.013.283.756.82.210.81.23.1
202338121003030190139492242537.2780.993.353.836.62.310.61.23.2
20243911902828173131442042337.2851.013.373.856.82.310.61.22.9
20254010802626152116401782037.2861.033.403.886.92.410.51.22.6
202641870222212898341511737.2851.033.433.926.92.410.61.22.2
202742760181810479271211437.2841.023.493.996.92.310.51.21.7
2028435401313786021901137.2861.043.544.047.02.410.41.31.2

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 61)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 79 Tom Seaver 1979 3.56
2 74 Pedro Martinez 2006 4.82
3 72 Mike Scott 1989 3.42
4 71 Ted Lilly 2010 3.86
5 69 Javier Vazquez 2011 4.25
6 69 Bobo Newsom 1942 4.80
7 68 Whit Wyatt 1942 3.40
8 68 Bert Blyleven 1985 3.71
9 67 James Shields 2016 6.04
10 66 John Smoltz 2001 3.66
11 66 Dazzy Vance 1925 3.90
12 66 Randy Johnson 1998 3.76
13 66 Walter Johnson 1922 3.45
14 65 Dennis Eckersley 1989 1.56
15 65 Curt Schilling 2001 3.02
16 65 Tex Hughson 1950 0.00 DNP
17 65 Jason Schmidt 2007 7.01
18 64 Justin Verlander 2017 3.45
19 64 Jason Hammel 2017 5.44
20 63 Sam Jones 1960 4.31
21 63 Bob Gibson 1970 3.40
22 63 Charlie Root 1933 3.05
23 63 Virgil Trucks 1951 5.18
24 62 J.A. Happ 2017 3.96
25 62 Colby Lewis 2014 5.65
26 62 Jake Peavy 2015 3.66
27 62 J.J. Putz 2011 2.33
28 62 Roy Halladay 2011 2.50
29 62 Cole Hamels 2018 4.39
30 62 Johnny Allen 1939 4.75
31 61 Matt Thornton 2011 4.98
32 61 Marco Estrada 2018 5.70
33 61 Mike Mussina 2003 3.61
34 61 Pascual Perez 1991 3.18
35 61 Adam Wainwright 2016 4.85
36 61 Sergio Romo 2017 3.72
37 61 A.J. Burnett 2011 5.44
38 61 Ryan Dempster 2011 4.94
39 61 Erik Bedard 2013 4.95
40 61 Jim Bunning 1966 2.61
41 60 Rafael Betancourt 2009 3.38
42 60 Jeff Fassero 1997 4.15
43 60 Jakie May 1930 5.81
44 60 Jon Lester 2018 3.72
45 60 Ervin Santana 2017 3.62
46 60 Anibal Sanchez 2018 3.16
47 60 Francisco Rodriguez 2016 3.70
48 60 Darren O'Day 2017 3.58
49 60 Lee Smith 1992 3.36
50 60 Josh Beckett 2014 3.19
51 59 Nolan Ryan 1981 2.05
52 59 Ted Higuera 1992 0.00 DNP
53 59 Connie Johnson 1957 3.46
54 59 Ray Caldwell 1922 0.00 DNP
55 59 Cliff Lee 2013 3.11
56 58 Steve Carlton 1979 4.02
57 58 Dolf Luque 1925 3.26
58 58 Johan Santana 2013 0.00 DNP
59 58 Roy Oswalt 2012 6.25
60 58 John Hiller 1977 4.35
61 58 Tom Henke 1992 3.07
62 58 Bruce Hurst 1992 3.98
63 58 Zack Greinke 2018 3.34
64 58 Preacher Roe 1950 3.45
65 58 Pat Malone 1937 6.57
66 58 Tommy Bridges 1941 4.03
67 58 Scott Kazmir 2018 0.00 DNP
68 58 Jack Scott 1926 4.94
69 58 Trevor Hoffman 2002 3.03
70 58 Kazuhiro Sasaki 2002 3.56
71 57 Hisashi Iwakuma 2015 3.68
72 57 Dan Wheeler 2012 8.76
73 57 Joaquin Benoit 2012 3.93
74 57 Kevin Millwood 2009 3.99
75 57 Roger Clemens 1997 2.22
76 57 Urban Shocker 1925 4.10
77 57 Octavio Dotel 2008 4.70
78 57 Chris Carpenter 2009 2.29
79 57 Gavin Floyd 2017 0.00 DNP
80 57 Jesse Chavez 2018 2.64
81 57 Bob Shawkey 1925 5.02
82 56 Luis Tiant 1975 4.36 DNP
83 56 Jim Brewer 1972 1.84
84 56 Esteban Loaiza 2006 5.35
85 56 Kerry Wood 2011 4.24
86 56 Harry Brecheen 1949 3.90
87 56 Vic Raschi 1953 3.48
88 56 Ubaldo Jimenez 2018 0.00 DNP
89 56 Mark Langston 1995 4.90
90 56 Grant Balfour 2012 2.53
91 56 George Earnshaw 1934 5.10
92 55 George Pipgras 1934 0.00
93 55 Bartolo Colon 2007 6.61
94 55 Ben Sheets 2013 0.00 DNP
95 55 Rollie Fingers 1981 1.15
96 55 Arthur Rhodes 2004 5.35
97 55 John Candelaria 1988 3.96
98 55 Ron Reed 1977 2.97
99 55 Rick Aguilera 1996 5.50
100 55 Jerry Blevins 2018 5.06

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2019  Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018 In snapping up his third Cy Young last year, Scherzer put himself in exclusive company—every pitcher with three or more is a Hall of Famer, save Clayton Kershaw (on his way) and Roger Clemens (uh, complicated). Perhaps most impressive of all is that last season was the best among Scherzer’s Cy Young campaigns. Though his velocity hasn’t dipped as he’s crossed over into his thirties, he’s still begun relying on his fastball a little less, with last season becoming the first time it accounted for fewer than half of his pitches. And he still ended up with the highest strikeout rate of his career, with the fewest home runs allowed since coming to Washington. There are a lot of years left on that contract, but it doesn’t look like Scherzer will be slowing down any time soon.
2017 Scherzer now boasts a Cy Young for each eye color after becoming just the 18th pitcher in history to win the award multiple times. He did, however, become the first to win it while leading the league in long balls allowed, and he did it despite posting his highest DRA since 2011. The stuff actually took a step forward, somehow, helping him generate career-best whiff rates with all three of his secondary pitches. His performance went next level against righties in particular, as they managed their way on base at just a paltry .189 clip. And perhaps most interestingly, he evolved into the rarest of power pitchers who actually gains velocity after his 30th birthday; he posted the highest sitting average on his four-seamer, nearly 1.5 mph harder than it had been clocked at as recently as 2014. With two years left before the escalators on his backloaded contract go off the rails, this deal might not look so bad after all.
2016 Scherzer spent nearly half the season as a below-average pitcher, surrendering a 4.45 ERA in 15 starts from July 7th to September 23rd. Wrapped around were the other 19 starts, in which Mad Max was unstoppable: three starts with Game Scores above 95, two no-hitters and a 1.66 ERA. His final start of the season, a 17-strikeout virtual perfect game (save for an infield error), might be the most dominant pitching performance in the sport's history. It's undeniably close.

Two versions of Scherzer, as different as his eye colors. What made the difference? He becomes susceptible to the home run ball when his mechanics fail him and cause him to miss location. In the summer stretch of mediocrity, hitters slugged 20 of their 27 homers against him.

2015 It took six years, 179 starts, 81 wins, but Max Scherzer finally earned his first complete game, becoming the first pitcher to throw his first one after winning a Cy Young. That sounds like the sort of thing traditionalists would needle him for, but he's actually a workhorse, just a new-age kind of one: He tossed six-plus frames in 28 starts and now ranks sixth in the majors in innings (and fourth in pitches) since 2013. As an extreme fly-baller he might give up solo homers in smaller parks, but little else. His intelligence is off the charts and into the next guy's chart, so even if his mechanics ever revert to 2009-era Scherzer, he still has the brainpower and armpower to gut through six innings on a bad day.
2014 Even on his worst days it is obvious how talented Scherzer is, but prior to 2013 he managed only short bursts of his best days. In 2010, he was demoted after eight starts, then returned to post a 2.46 ERA for four months. In 2011, he turned in six starts of six or more earned runs. In 2012, he ended April with a 7.77 ERA. In each case, he was undone by lefties. Scherzer finally pocketed the slider in favor of a devastating curveball against southpawsthey produced just a .539 OPS against the pitchand repeatedly credited the change with his turnaround in 2013. Notably, he improved by just as much against righties, who hit just .165/.219/.275 against him, suggesting his breakout goes deeper than he allows. If the Tigers haven't locked him up by the time you read this, then it'll be his walk year.
2013 Reason number 4,281,930 Why ERAs Alone Can Misinform: Scherzers didnt get below 5.00 until June 28, perhaps leading some to believe that his outing that day was the turning point of his season. Well, when you give up 9 percent of your entire years earned-run total in your first outing (seven of 78), in fewer than three innings, it will take a while to work it off. Scherzer's 3.22 FIP for the year tells the story of how great he was on the whole, and if he can tame his violent delivery for 32 starts, avoiding the meltdown outing every fifth or sixth time out, then a truly special season will be the end result, complete with Cy Young consideration.
2012 Last year Scherzer didnt dominate the way he had during the second half of 2010 and posted the worst numbers of his short career, but a quick look under the hood shows he is the same high-upside proposition he has always been. His walk and strikeout rates held steady, and though his ERA climbed almost a full run, his 3.70 xFIP (a fielding independent measure that assumes a normal number of home runs per fly ball allowed) was a virtual match for his career numbers. In other words, Scherzer was the same hurler he has always been except for a few extra souvenirs. Since that last bit tends to vary greatly from year to year, Scherzer is a great bet for a breakout this year. He still struggles against lefties and would benefit from an improved changeup, but if he can sort that out, his upper-90s fastball gives him ace potential.
2011 Scherzer struggled out of the gate last year, posting a 7.29 ERA through his first eight starts before being sent down to Toledo to fix his mechanics. It didnt take long to find the problem (a matter of arm positioning to stay on top of the ball), and when Scherzer returned he was lights-out. From May 30 forward, he posted a 2.46 ERA, held opponents to a .220/.293/.328 batting line, and struck out more than a batter per inningextrapolate those numbers to a full season, and you have a Cy Young candidate. Scherzer is known for his heavy, moving, low-90s fastball, but its the continued improvement of his slider and changeup that has toggled his ace descriptor from future to current.
2010 Widely considered one of the best young arms in the game, the 24-year-old Scherzer did not disappoint in 2009, making 30 starts while posting component stats that suggest an ERA closer to 3.44 than his official 4.12 (as per SIERA; see the team essay). Known for his blistering heat and a passion for sabermetrics, Scherzer said that his goal was to be a four-win player last year. Though he fell short by 1.5 WARP, his ability to get strikeouts and keep the ball on the ground bode well moving forward. If he can reduce the rate of free passes issued while sustaining the aforementioned attributes, we're looking at a perennial All-Star and a third potential ace for the Diamondbacks.
2009 Scherzer failed to make the big-league club out of camp, but forced his way back up by not allowing an earned run in his first 17 innings while striking out 29. In his first appearance in the majors he retired all 13 batters he faced while striking out seven of them, but from there he was more inconsistent. Being merely mortal, Scherzer would almost have to be more inconsistent than that, but he was either dominant or mediocre, depending on his command and the quality of his slider. He also missed some time with a sore shoulder. His fastball is a monster at 93-97 mph, and if the slider goes from one that flashes as plus to a consistent plus, he's an All-Star.
2008 With the new signing deadline in place, Scherzer holds the distinction of being the last of the year-long draft holdouts. Signed just before this year's draft after being picked eleventh overall in 2006, Scherzer was nothing short of spectacular in his first three professional starts at High-A, but when he got bumped up to Double-A Mobile, he found it harder going. Scherzer has an outstanding fastball that gets into the mid 90s and features heavy sink, but the good things to say about him end there, as his command and secondary stuff need a lot of work. Most scouts see him as a reliever in the end, but the good news is that he might prove to be good enough to close if he can develop just one solid second offering.

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BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2020-07-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hey Jesse! One fact of this season is that over 60 games, the elite players get less separation from the very good. Meaning a gap of 15 home runs over 162 games might just be 5 in a short season. But I don't know what to do with this information. In an auction, I am planning to concentrate resources on good mid-round bats, knowing that some of them will perform super elite over 60 games. Or am I thinking about this the wrong way. Does the short season somehow make the top-5 players more valuable?
(Pete from Providence)
I think a shortened season hurts the top players for the exact reasons you mention. Many performance metrics are unable to stabilize in a 60-game season. Fangraphs had a nice article on this awhile back: https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/

In an auction this year, I would actually target top pitchers, rather than hitters, since I expect there to be a substantial difference in usage between top arms and middle-to-back-end arms. In a recent 12-team draft with BP writers, I selected Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer with my first two picks. I think you can obtain a nice advantage with the aces this year, especially if teams just let them loose in this shortened season. Plus, strikeout rate is a stat that stabilizes really quickly.

I also still like to target speed early in a standard 5x5. It is a scare resource and it should play in this short season. (Jesse Roche)
2019-10-25 12:00:00 (link to chat)I am in a dynasty league with salaries and prospects are at a premium. I have Max Scherzer but have been offered Garrett Hampson from one team or Malcom Nunez from another. Should I trade my superstar for one of these turds because he costs a high amount of pretend dollars or should I just keep my superstar so that my team is successful and relevant?
(John from Tampa)
In that kind of league if you wouldn't do it as the Nats I wouldn't do it in fantasy. Nats don't hang up immediately because they assume you are gonna name three actually good guys in addition. (Jeffrey Paternostro)
2019-06-03 19:00:00 (link to chat)Is Espino the next Max Scherzer?
(Harold Reynolds from MLB Headquarters)
Why stop there? Next Babe Ruth! (Keanan Lamb)
2019-06-10 20:00:00 (link to chat)In my dynasty league, I could use a long-term CF as I'm currently deploying Harper in the 8 spot and next year I can probably deploy Gallo there and Harper back to RF. But with the dearth of LF options, I need Gallo there. Starling Marte is available in my 20-team dynasty (his owner has Trout). I have plenty of young pitching )Ian Anderson, Jesus Luzardo, Alex Reyes, Dustin May, Chris Paddack), and some more seasoned pitching (Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer). If I offered Luzardo, you think that's a fair offer to fill my OF?
(Mike from Milwaukee)
I feel like most Luzardo owners would think this is too rich and most Marte owners would think this isn't rich enough, which means it's probably about right. You can't trust Marte to play in more than 120 games and he's on the wrong side of 30, but Luzardo is a pitcher with arm injuries. Risks abound. (Ben Carsley)
2019-04-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)Trevor Williams is Max Scherzer in disguise, prove me wrong.
(Jordan from South Dakota)
That disguise includes a colored contact, I guess? (Craig Goldstein)
2017-04-05 23:00:00 (link to chat)20-team dynasty league: I'm arguably the best team n the league, but with no farm system prospects are eating at my bench. A rebuilding team sent me an offer: I give Eloy Jimenez, Lucas Giolito, and Mitch Keller, I get back Max Scherzer or Yu Darvish. If it pus me over the top, I have to do it, right? Would you take Max or Yu?
(AJ from Phoenix)
I'd probably do that deal in that context, yeah. First I'd try to counter for a deal that Eloy isn't in - see if you can replace him with a less-important-to-you MLB bat? I know he's on the DL in A ball, but man do I like that kid's swing almost as much as I don't like the thought of moving him (but yes, you probably do that deal if you're all-in, titles in a 20-teamer don't happen that often). I think I narrowly prefer Scherzer.

BTW, just saw the Lindor GS, and I'd like formally submit legislation to add him to my security council of players where I will pause whatever I'm doing to watch an at-bat. (Wilson Karaman)
2016-05-11 13:00:00 (link to chat)Ok let's say you have all three starters on your team :Sonny Gray,David Price and Max Scherzer.Which one are you giving up on ?
(Spirou from Montréal)
Sonny Gray. I think it's fair to say that the others have slightly more troubling collapse possibilities, just because of age/bullets fired/certain performance details, but I expect they'll all be fine and I like Price and Scherzer a lot more when everybody is right. (Sam Miller)
2016-05-11 13:00:00 (link to chat)Why did a Scott Boras client leave so much money on the table?
(Lyin Ted from Texas)
I spent about three and a half hours with Boras for an ESPN piece this winter. It was an odd conversation, because I went there to try to convince him that the sport has grown cynical and teams can't be trusted with players anymore, and he was the idealist arguing that in fact teams do do right by their players, usually. The point he kept repeating was that a team that treats its players right, and that doesn't harm their careers for the sake of the team or the bottom line, will be rewarded by players who want to play for them. He pointed to the Strasburg/2012 playoffs situation, and then to Max Scherzer signing with them, and drew a dotted line between those... suggesting that they're not unrelated. I'm sure he would say the same about the Strasburg extension, only maybe with a solid line, not dotted.

Long answer short: Strasburg still got life-changing money, he knows how much risk he was willing to bear, he envisioned this contract and it made him happy, and oh by the way sometimes "money left on the table" extensions turn into Jered Weaver. (Sam Miller)
2016-02-23 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hey Bub!! My fantasy and life partner just traded Max Scherzer for Corey Seager and Johnny Cueto. Do I have any reason to be excited? We are in a very pitching heavy keeper league.
(Clark from Bars around Broome County)
Love this deal. Sure, it's a pitching downgrade, but Seager is a Get, and Cueto's going to have very nice ratios in San Fran. Gimme that side of the deal all day. (Matthew Trueblood)
2016-02-23 13:00:00 (link to chat)My buddy made this trade in fantasy (with a couple draft picks as well): Bryce Harper and Max Scherzer for Chris Sale, Miguel Sano, Kyle Schwarber and Noah Syndergaard Is he crazy?
(Tommy from Chicago)
If he got the quartet, he won that trade in a friggin' runaway. Unless I don't understand fantasy baseball, which is totally possible. (Matthew Trueblood)
2015-09-30 19:00:00 (link to chat)Dynasty strategy question for you: I have a strong team that won this year and should be right there again next season, but I have a feeling I could get Corey Seager for Max Scherzer. Do you do that? It's a hit in '16 but it seems like it could pay off for 8-10 seasons.
(Jake from Kalamazoo)
I'd probably ask for one more guy if I'm giving up Scherzer but that seems to be in there. @DynastyGuru is the dude to ask. (Mauricio Rubio)
2015-01-20 19:30:00 (link to chat)Does Max Scherzer signing with the Nationals raise his draft stock any higher in your opinion?
(Edgar from my couch)
Sure. Good park, NL, best team in baseball. He was already a legit fantasy No. 1 but he's even more of a sure thing now. (Ben Carsley)
2015-01-12 13:00:00 (link to chat)Do you like the Angels moves so far? What's are they missing?
(Jesse from Fullerton)
Sure seems like they're going to need starting pitching. They can probably get through with the guys they have now and they likely can't afford to jump in on Max Scherzer or James Shields but both those guys would be huge improvements. The offseason is still young. There's time. (Matthew Kory)
2015-01-12 13:00:00 (link to chat)The Twins can win the AL Central in 2015 if _______.
(Twins Fan from DC)
Oh gosh. "...they sign James Shields and Max Scherzer." comes to mind. In truth I just spent a few minutes looking at their depth chart and I don't see it. Last season's Royals should be a lesson in writing teams off but I just don't see where they get the pitching from. (Matthew Kory)
2014-11-18 13:00:00 (link to chat)where do Jon Lester and Max Scherzer go?!?!?!???!!!
(Rich from Cedar Rapids)
That's a lot of punctuation, Rich! Right now, I'll say Lester back to Boston and Scherzer to the Yankees. (Daniel Rathman)
2014-09-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)As my 12-team, 5x5 roto season winds to a close, I need some keeper help. We keep six from year to year and here are the potentials: Anthony Rendon, Josh Donaldson, Mike Trout (obviously), Troy Tulowitzki, Anthony Rizzo, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Nolan Arenado I have Tulo, Rendon, Trout, Rizzo, Scherzer and Stras as my six. Would you choose them? Thanks for the help!
(Jake from Minneapolis)
I'd try to find a way to keep Donaldson and deal one of the pitchers, if I could. 28 bombs from 3B isn't anything to sneeze at, plus it allows you to play Rendon at 2B next year. Pitching is everywhere. (Craig Goldstein)
2014-08-06 16:30:00 (link to chat)If Max Scherzer were to only have one color of eyes, god forbid, would you rather him have the cool blue or chocolate brown?
(Kyle from Blacksburg)
This is a fantastic question and now I want a custom box of Crayola crayons with baseball themed colors. Here's the box:

-Scherzer Blue
-Scherzer Brown
-Doumit Deep Black Eyes
-Schilling Sock Red
-Kris Bryant Robins Egg Blue
-Clayton Kershaw's Alien Blood Silver

As for your actual question I would choose the chocolate brown. - Jake (Cespedes Family BBQ)
2014-07-28 19:00:00 (link to chat)You're Dave Dombroski. What do you do this trade deadline, what do you do in August, what do you do in the offseason?
(Francis from Boston)
Hooray, I'm Dave Dombrowski! Finally I look good in striped polos. Well I'm running out of prospects as well as Prospect Erector Sets, so a lefty reliever is all I can afford this year. Andrew Miller coming back to Detroit for that purpose would be super cool, but I would NOT give up what was traded for Miller the last time. In the offseason I begrudgingly let Max Scherzer get his money somewhere and ask really nicely if Justin Verlander wants to spend his money on a right fielder. (Matt Sussman)
2014-07-28 19:00:00 (link to chat)Assuming Max Scherzer leaves Detroit in the off-season, who is more likely to replace his spot in the rotation, Robbie Ray or somebody who's currently outside of the organization?
(Curtis from Michigan)
Ray, or Drew VerHagen and 100/1 odds on Josh Beckett. (Matt Sussman)
2014-07-24 19:00:00 (link to chat)You're rolling with Max Scherzer tonight right? It's @LAA and I've been hearing things about his neck...am I just overthinki it?
(The Dude from Couch)
I haven't, but yeah I'm still rolling with Max tonight. (Mauricio Rubio)
2014-06-27 14:00:00 (link to chat)What is going on with James Shields?
(Kyle from Under a bridge)
Lots of questions on Shields in the queue. His balance was greatly improved last season, particularly during the lift-and-stride portion of the pitch sequence, and he has maintained those gains in 2014. He is also throwing harder than last season by almost a full tick, so his relative struggles gain some intrigue. His transition from spine hyperextension to flexion looks more intense this season, with a "violent" head-butting movement near release point (like Max Scherzer), and that could be interfering with his ability to repeat the release point. The biggest functional issue that I have seen is that he is not burying pitches as well as he did last year, with a tendency to elevate, and he is dealing with the power spike that often accompanies elevated offerings. He could improve quickly, or the issue could linger, so it will be interesting to see how the cerebral Shields addresses the problem.

On the jukebox: Bob Marley, "Lively Up Yourself" (Doug Thorburn)
2014-03-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)Soooo Max Scherzer not signing in Detroit, Steve Lombardozzi traded for Alex Gonzales... does the worst deal in the offseason look even worse now? Is Dombrowski still a genius?
(DetroitDale from Tallahassee (eternal spring))
I don't rule out Scherzer signing in Detroit at all. No, I don't think it looks any worse because of Lombo/Gonzalez deal. I think DD has proven himself enough to still be held in high esteem even with my dislike for the Fister deal. (Paul Sporer)
2014-02-11 13:00:00 (link to chat)Who are some starting pitchers outside the Top 30 (think 30-50 range) that you are targeting to fill in the middle of your rotation this year? Thanks!
(Bwamps from LA)
Partly depends on your top 30. Pitchers outside my wife's top 30 that I'd target: Max Scherzer, Adam Wainwright, Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez.

If we use this top 30: http://espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/story/_/page/2014_ranks_SP/tristan-h-cockcroft-fantasy-baseball-starting-pitcher-rankings-2014 then I'd say...Fister, Cueto, Walker, maybe Peralta. Medlen is 29 on that list and I'm exceptionally bullish on Medlen this year. Irrationally, one might say. (Sam Miller)
2013-11-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)I agree with Trout that jawline is undeniable. The top ten list must include Harper and Cargo.
(Sulley9 from Denver)
What about Max Scherzer? I liked his face even before I saw that his eyes are different colors. Now, for me, his stock has zoomed up even further. (Kevin Kerrane)
2013-04-11 13:00:00 (link to chat)I think Max Scherzer is the third-best pitcher in the AL. Fourth maybe. OK fourth.
(Aaron from Detroit)
He might be. Who do you have as the top three? Verlander, Hernandez, Darvish, and I assume Buehrle? (Matthew Kory)
2013-03-20 11:00:00 (link to chat)I have two bargins and can only keep one Max Scherzer at $11 or Chris Medlen at $5 thoughts?
(Lipmanpike from Rutland VT)
I'd keep Scherzer. Medlen is definitely a tempting value but he's never made more than 14 starts or thrown more than last year's 138.0 IP in a season, so there's no way of knowing what his numbers will look like over a full season. I think he'll be good, but we **know** Scherzer will be good. Throw out his poor April last year and he was near-elite. Gotta keep him at that price. (Cory Schwartz)
2013-02-12 13:00:00 (link to chat)Early AL/NL ROY, Cy Young, MVP and any darkhorses you think are really going to break out this year?
(Greg36 from Tacoma)
Is it darkhorse enough to say Max Scherzer could make a run at the AL Cy this year? He K/9'd 11.1 last season as a starter! That's crazy good. For the AL MVP I'll throw my inconsiderable weight behind Mike Trout. That's a pretty thick limb to step out on right there, but hey, he's the best player in the AL so it's one I don't mind standing on for a while. I'm thinking Bryce Harper is going to explode (in a good baseball-y way) this season. He's so talented I wonder if when he cuts himself shaving that talent drips down the drain. If so he probably doesn't care. More where that came from. That doesn't entirely answer your question but I must get more coffee so that's how that goes. (Matthew Kory)
2013-01-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)I don't really have a 1B. I have excess pitching and RF: If I package one of Hunter Pence/Jose Bautista and Max Scherzer, what kind of 1B would you target (my team is built to win now).
(Michael from Milwaukee)
It really depends on which one of Pence/Bautista you package. Bautista/Scherzer should probably fetch you one of the elite first baseman. I'd probably pair Pence and Scherzer and aim a bit lower. Perhaps target someone like Edwin Encarnacion in hopes that his owner has questions about his ability to follow up on his breakout. You could also inquire about the availability of Paul Goldschmidt or Billy Butler in a deal revolving around Pence/Scherzer. (Josh Shepardson)
2012-07-03 14:00:00 (link to chat)Max Scherzer is making me distrust sabermetrics (4.98 ERA, 3.08 SIERA). Are we going to see the results improve moving forward?
(Andrew from Las Vegas)
He has been very frustrating for sure. Good things are coming, though. I can feel it :D Honestly, though, he's not like one of these guys with a long history of underperforming peripherals. The worst mark on his record is a .313 career BABIP, which is a little higher than we might expect, but not by much and perfectly fine when you regress. It's hard to sit through this, but I don't see any reason why his surface numbers won't start to resemble the ace that he is. (Derek Carty)
2012-05-25 14:00:00 (link to chat)What do you believe are the root causes of Max Scherzer's need to constantly tinker? Is there one thing that routinely falls off kilter in your opinion? Thank you.
(lemppi from Ankeny, IA)
Some players are never quite satisfied with how things feel, especially when their struggles come down to battles with mechanical timing. Such is the case for Scherzer, where a couple hundredths of a second is the difference between painting leather and finding the backstop, so he is always looking for a way to find a time signature that is repeatable (Doug Thorburn)
2012-04-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)In a Washington Post letter to the editor yesterday, a reader scoffed at Dave Johnson limiting Strasburg in his second start of the season to only 6 innings and 100 pitches. The reader brought up Don Newcombe's very amazing September 6, 1950 performance of pitching a complete game and then throwing another 7 innings to start the second game of a double header. The reader wondered what Newk would think about Strasburg. So what are the Process' current thoughts on pitch counts? And what would be a snappy response should I ever have the "Newk" card thrown at me in a baseball debate?
(Paul from DC)
Piitch counts are useless without context, and I think they're a little overblown in the MSM (though not as much as innings totals). We all know that Roy Halladay throwing 120 pitches isn't the same as Max Scherzer throwing 120 pitches, but the reasons *why* they aren't equivalent can't be gleaned from simply looking at a box score. (Bradley Ankrom)
2011-09-27 13:00:00 (link to chat)Max Scherzer drives me nuts. What is your take on how he'll fare in 2012?
(Matt from Malone, NY)
Yeah, he's been doing that to fantasy owners. I think he was a bit too overhyped this season, but I still like him and think he will deliver a better season next year than he did in 2011. His stuff is still there (aside from a fastball that's been rising a bit less, according to PITCHf/x) and he harnessed his control a bit better this season, so I don't see any reason why a 3.75 ERA isn't attainable next year with 15 Wins a 1.30 WHIP. I think a small bounceback in strikeouts is also a good bet; he's not a sub-8.0 K/9 guy. (Derek Carty)
2011-06-29 13:30:00 (link to chat)Who are your favorite players to deal with, both past or present?
(Gerald from Savannah)
Geez. That's a tough one because there are so many good guys I have dealt with in 24 years of covering baseball. I hate to leave people out but some of my favorites would have to include Sean Casey, John Burkett, Jay Bell, Craig Wilson, Jason Schmidt, Michael Barrett from the past. From the present: Jason Bay, Cole Hamels, Carlos Pena, Scott Rolen, Brandon Phillips, Nyjer Morgan, Neil Walker, Joel Hanrahan, Adam Jones, Max Scherzer, Don Kelly, Chris Perez, Adam Dunn, Matt Capps, Torii Hunter, Kurt Suzuki, Ian Kinsler. (John Perrotto)
2010-12-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)I can buy that response about Porcello/Greinke. I don't like it, but ya know how fans are. Same question but insert Max Scherzer? Who'll have the better next 5 seasons(as you say, sans injury.)
(singledigit from San Diego)
I'd put my money on Scherzer, whose second half was fantastic and a sign of things to come. Verlander/Scherzer/Turner/Porcello/Oliver could be scary good, especially if I'm wrong about Porcello. I can understand others picking Greinke, though, given the longer track record. (Ken Funck)
2010-11-11 13:00:00 (link to chat)By the time they both hit about 32-yrs old....who has had the better career, Max Scherzer or Rick Porcello?
(lemppi from Ankeny, IA)
Scherzer. He's already shown that he can strike out major league hitters, and that is the best predictor of future success. There's no doubt that Porcello has crazy upside but he's not getting whiffs yet, and so I have to play the odds and say Scherzer. (Matt Swartz)
2010-08-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)You forgot Fallout: New Vegas, which I'm not really excited for as much as under the thrall of the original two (I geeked out when my buddy played "A Kiss to Build a Dream On" at his wedding, it's that bad). Also I asked about local multiplayer games last chat and can report that the Scott Pilgrim game is worth the $10 if you like side scrolling beat 'em ups at all. Unfortunately it'll probably be around and relevant longer than the movie Same keeper question, with three free pitchers: Jaime Garcia, Max Scherzer, Clayton Richard
(Jack from Boston)
I'm not that excited for New Vegas, honestly. I'll pick it up eventually but I'm not in a rush to get it at all. I was planning on picking up the Scott Pilgrim game next time I turn on my 360, as I already have some points in my XBLA account. I saw the movie last night, and it was everything I wanted it to be--it's a shame no one else is going to see it, because it's fantastic.

Scherzer's numbers don't tell the story of how excellent he has been this year. He's at 2.28 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and 0.6 HR/9 since he returned from the minors. Scherzer is a stud. I like Clayton Richard quite a bit, though Kevin Goldstein and I currently disagree on whether or not his strikeout rate is for real. He got it up to 6.7 last year after never coming close to that outside of a brief 44 inning stint at Triple-A, and is up at 7.1 now. An above-average K rate and the ability to keep the ball on the ground more often than in the air makes me confident he'll continue to succeed. Garcia is a lot like Richard, actually, though he's a groundball pitcher which makes him a better bet. (Marc Normandin)
2010-06-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)In a 10 team (typical 5x5 roto) league I just traded away Jose Reyes and Wade Davis for Zorilla and Scherzer (I'm 1st in steals, last in RBI). Fair trade? Winner? Loser?
(WilliamWilde from Boston, MA)
I *love* Max Scherzer, so the fact you were able to get him while selling low on Reyes is pretty great in my mind. (Marc Normandin)
2010-06-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)Max Scherzer: back on the track to stardom or just overpowering a lousy offensive team?
(Thrilla Killa Klowns from Magical Mysteries)
He's gonna work it out. I'm still a believer. His stuff is electric. (Tommy Bennett)
2010-05-19 13:00:00 (link to chat)If a pitcher's fastball velocity is down significantly (let's say > 1.5 mph and there's no reliever to starter conversion to explain it) compared to the previous year, at one point in the season is it more likely than not that this is a real change instead of just an early season dead arm phase or small sample size? I would guess that we are there at least by now. My immediate concern pertains to Max Scherzer, but it's really a more general question.
(Michael from Detroit, MI)
I worry when I see a 10% reduction, but it's not that simple. It depends on his secondary pitches, his pitch selection, whether he relies on his velocity, and more. With Scherzer, I think it's just being out of whack rather than an injury. His mechanics are still relatively new to him, having been changed pretty significantly by the Dbacks. I wonder whether the Tigers were trying to make some changes as well. (Will Carroll)
2010-05-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)What do you do with young Tigers' pitcher Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello going forward?
(nschaef from CT)
I wasn't high on Porcello this year to begin with, though I don't mean he doesn't have a bright future. I just mean that I figured there would be some struggles this year (for reference, when asked about this before, I felt Brett Anderson was much further along in his development). He's going to be great, but I don't think that word applies to 2010.

Scherzer's velocity seems to be down a bit, but it's early so I'm having a hard time getting too worked up about it. I'm sticking with him in my AL-only league (though I may have to deal him for an outfielder given my previously referenced situation. Le sigh). (Marc Normandin)
2010-04-21 14:00:00 (link to chat)I meant getting to 0-1 regardless of how it's accomplished.
(Max from Brooklyn)
I did a study on something similar to this in the summer of 2008, based on something Max Scherzer told me he and the pitchers at the University of Missouri were taught, called A3P. A3P is Attack in 3 Pitches, and the goal was for the pitchers to either have the PA over, or at two strikes, after three pitches. When applied to major league pitchers there was no real connection between A3P percentage and the normal success-based metrics, and while your question and that study aren't entirely the same, I think they are close enough to appropriately answer the question. Getting ahead 0-1 is great, but I don't think we would find too strong of a correlation between % of PAs that start 0-1 and ERA, or RARP, or SIERA. (Eric Seidman)
2010-04-21 14:00:00 (link to chat)Who would you take for one year/career? Latos or Masterson? Any other young pitchers ready to take a step forward?
(George from NJ)
If I had to choose between the two for this season, I'll take Masterson. For career, Latos, but the gap isn't that wide, really. I'd go with Latos since he's younger and the scouts have been raving about his stuff. Other young guns ready to bust out? I don't know if you can consider it a break out given what he did last year but this is a big year for Tommy Hanson, and the same can be said of Brett Anderson. I'd also like to see Clayton Kershaw improve his control this season. I might be biased but I also think this is the year Max Scherzer emerges as a true front of the rotation stud. (Eric Seidman)
2010-02-16 16:00:00 (link to chat)Thank you for answering my earlier question. If you were going to build a staff, would you build it around Yovani Gallardo or Max Scherzer? Your thoughts on these two young pitchers?
(Dennis from LA)
On Gallardo: a high strikeout, high GB pitcher will always be welcome in my bullpen. Scherzer isn't as GB happy as Gallardo, but is no slouch himself. I would pick Gallardo over Scherzer on those grounds, but to be honest, you wouldn't do so bad with either one. (Russell A. Carleton)
2010-01-12 18:30:00 (link to chat)Hey Eric, wondering who your top picks for a breakout season in 2010 will be. Thanks, Dan
(DanDaMan from Sea Cliff)
Carlos Gonzalez and Max Scherzer off the top of my head. (Eric Seidman)
2009-10-05 16:00:00 (link to chat)Has the luster come off Max Scherzer at all? Would you rather have him or Jurrjens?
(James282 from nj)
Not in the slightest. I'd still take him over Jurrjens even though I love Jair simply because Max's skillset portends improvement moving forward and more of an ability to sustain that improvement. (Eric Seidman)
2009-09-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)For overall career value, this point on, who would you rather have Edinson Volquez or a pitching prospect ranked around 80th on Goldstein's top 100 list next year? Neither will likely pitch next year, both have some risk of development, both have some upside. I guess the question boils down to how much you believe that Edinson can regain his status from the injury. I am in a strat league, I could either keep Volquez or cut him and draft someone in the 80th range on Goldstein's next list.
(LindInMoskva from DC)
Volquez will miss 2010, but most pitchers come back from TJ to previous level. That's a major league pitcher with some upside. He'll be 28. Looking back to Goldstein's 2008 list (not 2009), guys at that level are Deolis Guerra, Radhames Liz, Max Scherzer, Jair Jurrjens, Aaron Poreda, and Greg Reynolds. Even with a year of development, we're looking at two guys who have established themselves at the MLB level, plus Poreda who's an upside guy. I'd probably take Poreda and Jurrjens over Volquez right now, Scherzer's a toss up, but then you have to figure out the "bust risk." Which of those guys would I have picked LAST year and am I confident that I can pick correctly? Kevin's an expert and had Poreda under Liz ... I think that bust risk is huge, so I'd almost always go with the guy I know can pitch. (Will Carroll)
2009-07-24 16:30:00 (link to chat)Please rank these in terms of the better MLB career - Clay Buchholz, Naftali Feliz or Max Scherzer? Thanks! Alan
(MikeAlan from North Carolina)
Admittedly I'm biased given my relationship with Max but I really do think he has a better career than Buchholz or Feliz, the latter of whom I own in a Strat league and love. Scherzer has absolutely electric stuff but also the know-how and savvy, as evident in the interview I posted with him last year, to make adjustments when adjustments are needed. He's very into the numbers, just like Bannister, but he throws 98 mph. (Eric Seidman)
2009-07-30 14:00:00 (link to chat)Please rank these in terms of MLB career: Clay Buchholz, Max Scherzer, Naftali Feliz. Thanks, Alan
(MikeAlan from North Carolina)
I'd have to go Buchholz, Feliz and Scherzer. I like the idea that Buchholz has had success, albeit just a taste in the major leauges, including throwing the no-hitter. (John Perrotto)
2009-02-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)How many innings does Max Scherzer throw in 2009, and how good are they?
(lowellfield from Brooklyn)
I know PECOTA loves Scherzer, and I couldn't agree more. He's really improved his secondary stuff over the years -- remember, he was mostly a fastball guy at Missouri. I think he probably throws 140 innings or so, and I think they'll be pretty good. A good sleeper for you fantasy players. (Bryan Smith)
2008-11-19 13:00:00 (link to chat)Arizona sent Max Scherzer to the fall league to get in the innings he 'missed' during the summer. Good idea or bad idea?
(brianjamesoak from Alameda, CA)
Good idea. (Will Carroll)
2008-07-22 13:00:00 (link to chat)What changed for Max Scherzer between this year and last?
(PSzucs from Toronto)
He found his velocity. (Kevin Goldstein)
2008-04-29 14:00:00 (link to chat)What do you think about Max Scherzer? Is he worth using a waiver claim?
(uptick from st. louis)
A quick scan of the queue tells me that Max Scherzer is a popular dude today. Scherzer was #90 on KG's list, and I'd have to think that if he has his walks under control--he handed out free passes to almost 5 hitters per nine in '07--then his upside is higher than that. Let's not go insane with a 23 inning sample or anything, but he's looking better now than he did when the season started, huh? If you have the space, go for it. If he keeps it up you won't have much more time to think it over. (Marc Normandin)


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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC


Max Scherzer has thrown 45,537 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2008 and 2022, all of them occuring in Spring Training. In 2022, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (94mph) and Slider (85mph), also mixing in a Change (84mph), Curve (75mph) and Cutter (89mph).