Biographical

Portrait of Justin Dunn

Justin Dunn P  

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2019 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 23)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
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Birth Date9-22-1995
Height6' 2"
Weight185 lbs
Age23 years, 9 months, 28 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
2015
2016
2017
2018
0.72019
proj
WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA..
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA- WARP

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg LG G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA-
2016 BRO A- NYP 11 8 30.0 1 1 0 25 10 35 1 95 7.5 3.0 0.3 10.5 46% .320 1.17 2.86 1.50 88 3.95 87.3
2017 SLU A+ FSL 20 16 95.3 5 6 0 101 48 75 5 106 9.5 4.5 0.5 7.1 44% .322 1.56 4.15 5.00 115 6.27 133.4
2018 SLU A+ FSL 9 9 45.7 2 3 0 43 15 51 2 97 8.5 3.0 0.4 10.1 42% .325 1.27 2.99 2.36 82 3.66 77.3
2018 BIN AA EAS 15 15 89.7 6 5 0 85 37 105 7 101 8.5 3.7 0.7 10.5 47% .345 1.36 3.36 4.22 93 4.68 98.8
2019 ARK AA TEX 17 17 88.3 5 3 0 82 26 108 6 89 8.4 2.6 0.6 11.0 37% .335 1.22 3.07 3.46 84 4.85 98.7

Plate Discipline

YEAR Pits Zone% Swing% Contact% Z-Swing% O-Swing% Z-Contact% O-Contact% SwStr%

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation

Compensation

Year Team Salary

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status

Details

2019 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA DRA VORP WARP
90o 8.2 7 0 26 26 126.7 99 48 126 13 .261 1.16 3.34 3.66 23.8 2.6
80o 7.5 7 0 24 24 119.2 100 49 118 13 .275 1.25 3.72 4.08 17.1 1.9
70o 7 7 0 23 23 114.0 101 49 113 13 .285 1.31 4.00 4.39 12.6 1.4
60o 6.5 7 0 22 22 109.7 101 49 109 13 .294 1.37 4.25 4.66 9.0 1.0
50o 6.1 7 0 21 21 105.6 101 49 105 13 .302 1.42 4.48 4.92 5.8 0.6
40o 5.7 7 0 20 20 101.7 101 49 101 13 .310 1.48 4.71 5.18 2.8 0.3
30o 5.3 7 0 20 20 97.5 101 49 97 13 .319 1.54 4.97 5.46 -0.2 0.0
20o 4.9 7 0 19 19 92.8 101 49 92 13 .330 1.62 5.27 5.8 -3.6 -0.4
10o 4.3 6.9 0 17 17 86.4 100 49 86 13 .344 1.73 5.71 6.28 -7.7 -0.8
Weighted Mean6.1702121105.41004910413.3001.414.454.886.20.7

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BP Annual Player Comments

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BP Articles

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BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2019-05-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)Is Justin Dunn up in the big leagues later this year if Seattle is in contention?
(Dan from CA)
I think that might be a little aggressive, but it's possible, like you said, if the Mariners are still in contention. It will be telling to see how that Mariners monitor his innings (he tossed a little less than 140 last season) - that could be indicative of their summer plans in Seattle. (Mark Barry)
2018-06-29 13:00:00 (link to chat)I know you nor Jarret didnt get the best Justin Dunn look, but I've seem (granted, Mets twitter), that he's been a lot better than 91-94 with fringe slider and fringe command. Could he be putting up these numbers with that arsenal? ( last 38IP, 45K and 1.89 ERA, including 10K last night in AA)?
(LUKE from BK)
I saw pretty much what Jarrett did and I got a similar report for this third Double-A start. And yeah you can absolutely carve up a Double-A lineup (especially Trenton's) with a fastball that touches 95, a bit of deception, and an average or solid-average slider. He's fine and his 2018 performance and reports are obviously *better* than the 2017 ones, but I think that's gotten him more or less back to the post-draft rankings/reports. (Jeffrey Paternostro)
2018-06-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)Is David Peterson and Justin Dunn stock up? Or were the assignments so conservative that their stock is holding steady?
(Ryan from NJ)
Yeah, there hasn't been an underlying change in the stuffer either and Dunn was a repeater. The Peterson assignment was particularly baffling. Even if you regret sending Dunn to St Lucie in 2017, they are vasty different types of pitching prospects. I'm catching Dunn tomorrow and he may end up a Ten Pack. But we have like 20 staff looks at him over the last two seasons and a distinct pattern has emerged. (Jeffrey Paternostro)
2018-04-13 12:00:00 (link to chat)Is Justin Dunn fixed?
(Erin from City)
I wouldn't have said he was broken after two starts last year, won't say he is fixed now. Obviously it's encouraging, but the reports last year were always "fine" so far as it goes. Still not convinced he is a starter long term. (Jeffrey Paternostro)
2017-11-03 13:00:00 (link to chat)What are your expectations for Justin Dunn in 2018?
(Pete from Bronx)
I could have included Dunn on the most contentious internal prospects, but it hasn't really been an argument as much as general befuddlement. Could go any number of directions, Familia-like breakout early while repeating the FSL, shoulder injury lingers, more inconsistency as a starter, breakout after a second-half 2018 move to the pen. It's all on the table. The reports on the stuff are fine, it's been more command/efficiency, which you could view as more or less concerning than a stuff dip depending on your mood. (Jeffrey Paternostro)
2017-10-24 20:00:00 (link to chat)Should I be more down on Justin Dunn or Desmond Lindsay?
(Meg from Altoona)
We can't even agree *internally* on how messed up Dunn is right now, which is itself not the world's greatest sign. Lindsay looked fine on a healthy series look, but when is he ever healthy? They're going to rank right around each other on the Mets list, but at least they're probably still going to make the list... -- Jarrett (World Series Chat)
2017-09-29 12:00:00 (link to chat)I've read not to be alarmed at Justin Dunn's seemingly disappointing season and that it's not crazy for a pop up arm who was stretched out in his final year of college to struggle in his first full season of pro ball. Your take? Stock way down, or no?
(Lyle from Chicago)
The problem is the pop-up doesn't always stick. Not sure that is what is happening here yet, but there was always a probably reliever outcome and we saw probably 15 of his starts. It wasn't good, especially the control/command, so stock has to be down. (Jeffrey Paternostro)
2017-06-12 19:00:00 (link to chat)Do you think the Mets have approached the last two drafts any differently without DePodesta?
(Pete from NY)
Tough to tell, you could argue that Justin Dunn fell to their laps last season. Everything past that seemed pretty straightforward. (Steve Givarz live during the MLB Draft)
2017-05-18 13:00:00 (link to chat)What do you make of Justin Dunn's start? Stock down? Increased chances of moving to pen ?
(Dexter from Jersey)
Steve and Javier both saw him and the stuff was in line with what I saw last Summer. We don't think of A+ as an aggressive assignment for an ACC college pitch, but he has little experience as a starter. I may have literally just repeated a chat answer from two weeks ago. (Jeffrey Paternostro)
2017-05-04 13:00:00 (link to chat)What have you heard about Justin Dunn so far - anything to be worried about?
(Bill from Long Island)
Steve has an eyewitness report on him up today, and that jibes with other reports I have gotten. Stuff is still fine, command lags behind. We don't think of A+ as an aggressive assignment for a first round college pitcher, but Dunn's background makes it trickier with his lack of experience starting. I did wonder even last Summer how the stuff would hold up as a starter, so that is something to keep an eye on, but I wouldn't be *worried* yet. (Jeffrey Paternostro)
2017-04-28 13:30:00 (link to chat)what's up with Justin Dunn? See any reports?
(ER from Ny)
20 innings, is what I'd say. Ideally he'd look better but we had him 92-93 (t96) recently, so it doesn't seem like anything is significantly out of line there. (Craig Goldstein)
2017-01-18 20:00:00 (link to chat)Hey Bret, I could use some help on deep dynasty assets for a prospect draft. 20 team dynasty league, 150+ prospects owned. I have two upcoming picks and I've put together a list of 10 guys that I'm having a terrible time differentiating. My list is: Jake Bauers, Jahmai Jones, Lucas Erceg, Christin Stewart, Taylor Trammell, Alec Hansen, Walker Buehler, Sixto Sanchez, Justin Dunn, Sandy Alcantara I was thinking about one hitter and one pitcher but really I just want the two best values from that list. How would you rank the top 3-5 in case a few get taken between my picks? Obviously some of them are closer to the majors and some are much farther away which is why I'm struggling. Any help is appreciated. Thanks!
(treynay3 from Grand Rapids)
I'd go Jones, Alcantara, Erceg, Dunn. (Bret Sayre)
2016-11-11 13:00:00 (link to chat)Got to watch a lot of Brooklyn Cyclones this year- can honestly say I don't remember watching a minor league team with that much talent. Justin Dunn, Desmond Lindsay, Thomas Szapucki and Peter Alonso all look like they have a chance at becoming solid major leaguers, right?
(Earl of Sandwich from Brooklyn)
I'm lower on Alonso than most, but yeah, it was a fun little squad, especially after last year's being pretty barren. I'd throw in Merandy Gonzalez too, raw and probably a reliever, but potential major league arm for sure. (Jeffrey Paternostro)
2016-11-11 13:00:00 (link to chat)Is being drafted by the Mets the best thing that could have happened to Justin Dunn and his development as a pitcher?
(Randy from NYC)
I am writing about this for the Mets essay. He is the kind of arm they have had some success with, but we do tend to forget the ones that don't get the Warthen bump. Generally I would say being a rawer college arm getting drafted by an org with a good track record of developing arm strength guys is good though. (Jeffrey Paternostro)
2016-08-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hey Adam, I live in Brooklyn and am a Mets fan and have had the pleasure of watching a very talented Cyclones team this year. Specifically, Justin Dunn, Thomas Szapucki and Desmond Lindsay (.308/.444./.514 jump out at me. How do you project those three guys?
(Ian from Brooklyn)
I like something (or a lot of things) about all three of those players, respectively. I think Dunn could be very good, Szapucki I can see in the big leagues in some capacity. Maybe as a starter, though I can see his angle and mix of stuff playing well in shorter stints. Desmond Lindsay's ability to hit and stay through the ball to all fields really jumped out at me as an amateur. He's been a nice boost for the system. (Adam McInturff)
2016-08-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thanks for the chat. Please rank these starting pitchers in terms of stuff: Dillon Cease, Thomas Szapucki, Alec Hanson, Cal Quantril, Luiz Gohara, Ian Anderson, Justin Dunn, Michael Kopech.
(Ralph from Bronx)
Hmmm...pure stuff. This is a great question.

Lets go...Alec Hanson first maybe? He doesn't throw as hard as Kopech but I think he has a better breaking ball right now in its pure form. Then Kopech, I suppose, just because of the velo. Let's say Cease third, Dunn fourth? Those guys could be reversed, too. Quantrill fifth, Ian Anderson, then Gohara, then Szapucki. All these guys have great stuff though. (Adam McInturff)
2016-08-15 22:00:00 (link to chat)Mets seem to have an abundance of low level pitching prospects- Thomas Szapucki, Justin Dunn, Merandy Gonzalez, Andrew Chruch are some of the better ones. Do you really like any of those guys/how does each profile in MLB?
(Cole from Jersey City)
Jarrett caught Szapucki recently and came away gushing about the FB and projection. And Jeff wrote about both Dunn and Gonzalez this summer, with both - especially the former - showing intriguing and potentially faster-moving relief profiles.

Szapucki: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=29987
Dunn: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=29920
Gonzalez: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=29656 (Wilson Karaman)


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