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Chat: Jeffrey Paternostro

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday June 29, 2018 1:00 PM ET chat session with Jeffrey Paternostro.


Jeffrey is the lead prospect writer at Baseball Prospectus and co-host of the BP Mets podcast, For All You Kids Out There.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Okay, let's start this chat before I go and order a Euro 92 Sweden shirt.

Ned (Nabisco): Is Jonathan Loaisiga a 2 IF he stays healthy?

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's not impossible, and I suspect Jarrett would argue for an OFP 70 grade if he was still eligible for the midseason (I am guessing he won't be), but that's a bit rich for me given his height, injury history, and lack of a quality change at present. Of course, that is all scouty hedging and if he shoves the rest of the year the proof will be in the production. As always too, note that the Yankees are better at maxing out these pitching profiles than just about anyone else in baseball.

Frederick (LAX): My flight is delayed and I'm reading an article about Tyler Skaggs. Has he arrived?

Jeffrey Paternostro: He's literally been in the majors since 2012. I guess that even sorta surprised me when I double-checkedhis numbers for this year. Time keeps marching on. Anyway, this was always possible if he stayed healthy, he's just never stayed healthy.

Remmie (Rifkin): Francisco Mejia is destroying baseballs. When will he be DH'ing, left Fielding, and backup catching for the Tribe?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I thought he should have been a candidate to be up last year. Obviously the slow start this season had even me a bit concerned, but he's hitting like .450 with power this month as a 22 year old in Triple-A. I guess Gomes has been good enough this year I can't confidently argue he should be there starting catcher right now, but I also don't know if Yan Gomes should be blocking your top prospect. Cleveland can and probably should figure some way to get Mejia 250-300 PA the rest of the year in the bigs.

LUKE (BK): I know you nor Jarret didnt get the best Justin Dunn look, but I've seem (granted, Mets twitter), that he's been a lot better than 91-94 with fringe slider and fringe command. Could he be putting up these numbers with that arsenal? ( last 38IP, 45K and 1.89 ERA, including 10K last night in AA)?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I saw pretty much what Jarrett did and I got a similar report for this third Double-A start. And yeah you can absolutely carve up a Double-A lineup (especially Trenton's) with a fastball that touches 95, a bit of deception, and an average or solid-average slider. He's fine and his 2018 performance and reports are obviously *better* than the 2017 ones, but I think that's gotten him more or less back to the post-draft rankings/reports.

Tony the Tiger (Brookfield): Taylor Hearn has been getting some attention. 95 from the left side and emerging consistency in the secondaries. He's already surprised, how much more is in there?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I think you get the most out of him by letting him max out in two-inning pen stints. Could be like 96-98 with cut and feel for an above-average slider. As a starter I just don't know if he has the full arsenal or stamina to turn over a lineup multiple times, but if you are the Pirates it's reasonable to give him a little more time to prove that he can't before letting him loose as a relief arm.

Herman lay (Grave): Mike shawryn from the red sox a backend for you?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yeah something like that. Probably more likely he's like a seventh inning guy, but I've always sort of liked him as a potential starter more than I should.

Carl (San Jose): Thoughts on Khalil Lee? His promotion to AA was a little unexpected no?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Victor saw him this year and made a strong argument he should be on the midseason 50. It's been a weird pro career so far, but if he could somehow consolidate his 2017 skillset with his 2018 one, I'd struggle to argue him off. He hasn't yet of course, and Double-A will actually be an interesting test. All the tools are in his bag though, and we will know a lot more by September.

Gary (Kingsport ): Is newton a guy?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Shervyen, absolutely. Top ten dude in that system right now for me with the caveat that this can change a lot as I see more short-season guys and get more reports.

Jon (Westchester): Hi, Jeffery. Any word on Eric Hanhold’s injury? Also Anthony Dirocie seems to still be hitting for power, but not striking out now. SSS, but is he a guy to keep an eye on now?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Hanhold was an oblique I believe, so not a major concern. Just bad timing for him, because he probably would have gotten a look with the big club by now. Dirocie is 21 and repeating the Appy, so while it's fine to keep an eye on him, he's like the eighth most interesting name on that team.

Kyle (South Dakota): Is Yordan Alvarez bordering on a top 20 prospect for fantasy? Seems like he has a pretty decent floor with a plus hit and power tool.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yeah, I could see that. Better question for Bret or Ben (or even Craig I suppose) mind you.

Eddie (Make a Wish Foundation): I've penciled Anthony Kay into my 2022 dynasty rotation. How excited should I be?

Jeffrey Paternostro: This is a stunning own of the Mets slow player development tracks whether on purpose or not. Eh, he's been fine I guess, but I'd want a heckuva lot more upside if I was planning for 2022

Horace (South america): Convince me pablo lopez is more than a backend starter?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I mean, I think he's probably a backend starter? Not impossible there is more in there of course, and I'm curious to get a look at how the breaking ball has progressed this weekend, not that the Mets lineup will necessarily be a great test.

Alex (Cabrini Green): What kind of pitcher would Freddy Peralta be if he had a plus curveball he threw 30% of the time?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Uh, poor man's Jose Berrios maybe? If wishing only made it so though.

Andrew (Boston): Is Carter Kieboom legit? It seems like people are starting to buy into the bat *and* the glove this year.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Sure. We liked him last year a lot, and he likely would have been Top 50 if he hadn't missed so much time with injury. I don't know if he has huge star upside, but high probability good regular for me...somewhere.

ML (NY): Can Sixto Sanchez definitely be a bonafide SP1? He's so small and looks like he will definitely need TJ.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I mean how many starting pitchers in the majors have already needed TJ? And FWIW, everything I've heard on Sixto is it was just inflammation though obviously that could change/I might be getting worked.

Dusty (Colorado): Does Wander Franco have the upside to be the best Wander Franco, perhaps best Wander?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Wander Franco is pretty obviously already the best Wander Franco prospect.

Tyler Durden (LA): Do you think Sandy Alcantara's lower K rate in AAA was the result of coaching him to be more of a pitcher vs. thrower or is he bound to be lit like a pinball machine?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Alcantara has had such a weird pro career the least couple seasons. I think the stuff is too good to consistently square, but everything else is pretty up in the air. I'm not one to get too worked up over the results of a dozen starts though.

Filepe (Especial): I'm pretty doggone excited about Ranger Suarez. Can he be like a Kyle Freeland type number 3?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Is there some fantasy question best practices that tells people to ask about excitement levels? Lot of questions phrased that way this week. Anyway, putting aside my own doubts about Kyle Freeland continuing to be a Kyle Freeland type, I haven't really heard that Suarez is particularly different this year, and we had him more as a backend type last year.

Lenny (Kelly Park): What's more likely, Peter Alonso goes Goldschmidt or Jonathan Loaisiga goes Marcus Stroman?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I mean, you'd hope Loaisiga would have the one good full Stroman season more than once I guess. And that's probably more likely than the full Goldschmidt. Goldy was always sneaky athletic in a way that Alonso just isn't.

Xavier (NY): What have you heard from Andres Gimenez looks?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Straight from the midseason Mets org update BP Mets will be publishing probably next week sometime:

"So Gimenez shed some baby fat and is showing a bit more pop and a bit better odds at sticking at shortstop."

Yonnie (Calligonnie): I really appreciate what Hudson Potts has done. It's early,but what do we have there? Another Austin Riley, mixed opinions, prove everyone wrong kind of emergence?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I like that were alternate Hudson Potts weeks. One week it is "he's actually overrated, right?" the next it's "He's a breakout Austin Riley type, right?"

Wilson ten packed him this week and thought the glove was ahead of the bat, but the bat had potential given his age relative to competition. And the glove was really good,

As for the bat:

"He’ll wear his 19 years and sometimes fall prey to executed sequencing out of the zone, but there’s also some foundational command of the zone. There’s natural strength, and there’s a lot of untapped potential to apply it more effectively in the pursuit of loft and distance."

Bob (Ohio): Is Shed Long someone who could sneak into the BP 101 next year? Above average regular possibility?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yeah, he's been on the long list before. The general consensus is he's been more of a fun prospect than a *101* name, but it can become both once you start showing it at Double-A

Mike (NY): Does George Valera get any time in the New York Penn League this summer after dominating rookie ball like Juan Soto did 2 years ago.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I mean I hope so, even though Mahoning is a gigantic pain for me to see usually.

Earl (NJ): is jeff mcneil a top 5 met prospect? a 5?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Craig wants me to not swear in these chats so the edited version of the tier designation he appears under on our midseason org update is "F*** if we know"

I will add that four of us (myself, Jarrett Seidler, Tyler Oringer, and Alex Rosen) all did updated pref lists, and he didn't make anyone's top five.

Dax (NY): What team has the ability to put together a DeGrom godfather offer and what is it?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yanks could head a package with Gleyber (They won't). Angels could head one with Jo Adell (they might). I suppose the Braves could, but they won't deal Acuña or Soroka (nor should they). Houston with Whitley I suppose (Who knows, but probably not, and that don't NEED NEED another starter). Brewers probably don't have enough past Hiura and man we love Hiura internally at BP. Dodgers have bulk top 50 types and just bulk prospects generally, but I don't know that they have a signature piece to head the deal.

Winston (Princeton): What can ya tell us about Clarke schmidt? Any relation to mike or that guy from the dodgers with the awful contract?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I don't believe so. Anyway, interesting college arm that the Yankees always seem to hit on, still working his way back from TJ in the complex. Assume he shows up in Staten or maybe Tampa before the end of the year.

Zamzow (City): I just dealt Peter Alonso for Gohara and Baz. Should I be arrested for robbery?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Eh, I think it's fine, and Alonso isn't the worse guy to sell high on right now. I've just never been on the Gohara train.

John (GA): How much concern is warranted with Soroka's inflammed rotator cuff? Two DL trips this year.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Always Be Concerned (about shoulders)

George (Columbus): Are the Royals just stuck? MJ Melendez (love this kid's game!), Seuly Matias, and Khali Lee look like legitimate prospects, but their major league roster seems short on assets to ship out in exchange for quality young talent. Their prospect stable seems so far behind everyone else's.

Jeffrey Paternostro: It's still a shallow system, yeah, but it's got impact talent at the top now which is an improvement and Singer and Kowar at least have some upside as college pitchers go. Maybe you get someone to bite on Whit Merrifield too, but yeah this is more a draft rebuild than a sell of rebuild, fortunately (?) they have another high pick for next year just about banked.

Jack (Texas): I thought Hans Crouse was one of the more interesting HS arms from the 2017 draft. He's just getting going in the NWL. What kind up upside do you see for him?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Sorry, got distracted for a bit there by the Wednesday home kit release. I think this is the first time in years we've had it in June. It's outstanding.

Sure, Crouse is neat. I know they have streamlined his delivery some, but it's hard for me to see a starter long term at present. Impact stuff in the pen potentially though.

Mark (Bronx): Can you elaborate on what you saw in Ross Adolph?

Jeffrey Paternostro: From the Ten Pack:

" There are major league tools here. Adolph is stocky enough you might cast a suspicious glance at him playing center field, but he is an above-average runner, and is very comfortable going gap-to-gap. He can play there for me for now. Adolph works counts and has a nice, compact left-handed swing to unleash when needed. He even drove the ball well to the opposite field. Everything here is a little sneaky, the speed, the pop, and I’m not writing a 6 anywhere on the sheet, but Adolph has a major-league tool set. It likely all adds up to a fourth outfielder in the end'

Billy (Indiana): I sold high on Alex Kiriloff and reeled in Aaron Sanchez for my rotation. How exciting should I be for the turnaround?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Hate to be a killjoy again, but the Jays track record of developing starters and getting sustained success out of them in the rotation isn't great. Deal seems fair enough though given what Sanchez has flashed in the past.

Tony (PA): Would you sell high on Nimmo in a points dynasty league? Strikeouts have picked up this month and still not great vs lefties.

Jeffrey Paternostro: I'd want something very very tasty but not the worst idea in the world.

Jon (Westchester): Vientos, Newton and Sanchez. Who are the other 4 more interesting Kingsport names than Dirocie?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I picked seven more or less off the top of my head, but let's go with Moreno, Beracierta, Bryant, Noah Nunez

neel348 (CT): did you say the midseason update comes out on Wednesday?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Guessing Thursday or Friday before Futures

Anthony (Canada): New York Penn League Question: Should I go see a Staten Island Yankees game, or Brooklyn Cyclones game, factoring in quality of the ballpark and team lineups?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Staten in a walk, especially if you can catch a Sauer or Roasny start

Tom (IL): How would you assess Zack Collins' year so far?

Jeffrey Paternostro: More or less holding serve

Vin (Phx): Thoughts on Kristian Robinson?

Jeffrey Paternostro: I am sure the Professor will have a few X-rated thoughts about him at BP AZ this weekend.

Mike (NY): Gut feeling, do you think Francisco Lindor is heading towards a Hall Of Fame career?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Yeah, obviously the first half of the hall of fame career is easier than the second half, but he might have the first half by 27.

Gabe (MA): Love BP but wish there was more MLB draft content. Would have been nice to get draft rankings throughout the spring and draft recaps afterward. Just a thought going forward.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Sure I get that, but our focus has always been live pro coverage and doing am coverage that way would require either a much larger staff or really hamper our ability to get pro looks early in the year.

Sean99 (Orland Park): Michel Baez seems to be holding his own in a hitters league. Reports still down?

Jeffrey Paternostro: A little, but he's struggled with some injury stuff too. It's not a further breakout, but he's still a very very good pitching prospect.

Jeffrey Paternostro: Okay, got a few things to do before I head to the park in this miserable heat. Not that anyone asked for it but France 2-1 Uruguay 1-0 Spain 3-1 Croatia 2-0 Brazil 2-1 Belgium 3-1 Sweden 1-1 (Advances on PK) England 1-1 (Advance on PK)

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