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2019 Preseason Forecast
Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET
|2019-08-06 12:00:00 (link to chat)||I'm "rebuilding" in a dynasty league where we have a weekly starts cap, so pitchers get an overall bump in value. I don't want a long, multi-year rebuild. One of my strategies has been to target buy low opportunities on injured pitchers like Taillon, Severino, Cueto, Fulmer, Richards, even Rich Hill. This is totally reasonable, right? My thinking is these guys are closer and more proven than any Single-A pitching prospect I can have.|
(Steve from Chicago)
|Sure. Although I'd say there's a bit of a difference between like Luis Severino and Johnny Cueto in this exercise. (Jeffrey Paternostro)|
|2016-03-09 19:00:00 (link to chat)||Mike, I need big time help here. I'm so lost on who to keep. I've made a couple bad moves that just seem to keep snowballing after drafting yoan last year and trying to send him down to my minor leagues (the guys with the top 2 waiver spots wouldn't budge and still won't). 12 team H2H points league... Which 8 do I keep???
Yoan, schwarber, Carlos Gomez, Franco, Carpenter, A Jones, Pujols, Quintana, Samardjzia, sonny Gray, Cueto, Shelby Miller, Teheran.
Thank you sooo much!!!|
(Clark from Corn Maze)
|Yoan Moncada, Kyle Schwarber, Gomez, Maikel Franco, Matt Carpenter, Sonny Cray, Johnny Cueto, and Adam Jones. (Mike Gianella)|
|2016-02-23 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Hey Bub!! My fantasy and life partner just traded Max Scherzer for Corey Seager and Johnny Cueto. Do I have any reason to be excited? We are in a very pitching heavy keeper league. |
(Clark from Bars around Broome County)
|Love this deal. Sure, it's a pitching downgrade, but Seager is a Get, and Cueto's going to have very nice ratios in San Fran. Gimme that side of the deal all day. (Matthew Trueblood)|
|2015-12-01 14:00:00 (link to chat)||So Detroit trades for K-rod, signs Jordan Zimmermann, and they're STILL behind the Royals?
Everyone knows Ben Zobrist, Alex Gordon, AND Johnny Cueto aren't going back to KC right?|
(DetroitDale from Florida (Eternal Spring Training))
|I didn't say that. I think it's close. Detroit still has a lot of question marks, in my book. So does Kansas City. So does Minnesota. So does everyone. It's the first day of December. (Christopher Crawford)|
|2015-07-23 17:00:00 (link to chat)||When does Marcus Stroman become a better pitcher than Johnny Cueto? Next two years? Or will Cueto have to retire first?|
(ayzzya from Crown Heights)
|4-5 years. (Mike Gianella)|
|2015-04-06 20:15:00 (link to chat)||Liriano walking Cueto was the key in the Reds win.
Caused the fielders choice leading to Hamilton getting on, then 1st to 3rd, then balk.
Dodgers fan? Sure you'd love the DH, they'd employ one for $20mil
Bob Lemon, Carlos Zambrano, and Rick Rhoden scorn you|
(D Brown from Da burgh )
|Johnny Cueto is a career .101/.128/.132/.104 hitter. Bob Lemon was .232/.288/.386 and was the best of the players you mentioned with a 676 OPS. Jose Iglesias has a career 678 OPS. This isn't a winning argument. (Craig Goldstein)|
|2015-02-13 19:00:00 (link to chat)||Thanks for the chat, Mike! What are your thoughts on taking Clayton Kershaw in say the Top 5? SP seems deep, and you can build a nice staff later in the draft. The other thing is, in order to keep your advantage in SP cats by taking Kershaw, don't you have to take another pitcher earlier than you'd think, which again puts you behind the curve for hitting cats? By that I mean you don't want to take Kershaw 1st rd, then not another pitcher until 10th/11th rd as that might be just as good as someone who takes pitchers in say 4th and 7th/8th rds, and you've lost the advantage Kershaw gives you, while also losing out a potentially elite hitter in the 1st rd. |
(Shawn from Cubicle)
|I had a long discussion about this today on Twitter with Ray Guilfoyle of Fake Teams and Dan Strafford of Sirius XM. I think it's OK to do, but given the variability at the bottom of the SP pool, you have a greater likelihood of getting a Johnny Cueto or Corey Kluber type relatively late (like last year) as opposed to getting a great hitter late. If Kershaw tanks, that's 1/9th of your rotation going down in flames, versus if a Bryce Harper tanks that's 1/14th of your offense. My preference is to start taking pitchers in the 6th round or later. I'll pounce earlier on an arm I like if he falls, but generally speaking I hate taking a pitcher in the top five. I would have taken Pedro #1 during his prime without hesitation, but that's as crazy an exception to a rule as you are going to get. (Mike Gianella)|
|2015-02-06 13:00:00 (link to chat)||If you only sign 1 of next year's FA SP class (potentially David Price, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann, Jeff Samardzija) who would it be?|
(Shawnykid23 from CT)
|Greinke (Harry Pavlidis)|
|2014-06-27 14:00:00 (link to chat)||What pitchers would you be targeting as buys/sells right now?|
(Shawnykid23 from CT)
|The buys: Justin Verlander, Matt Cain, Doug Fister
The sells: Johnny Cueto, Scott Kazmir, Garrett Richards (Doug Thorburn)
|2014-05-27 11:30:00 (link to chat)||What makes Johnny Cueto's change so good? Brooks baseball is telling me there isn't much movement to it and he doesn't throw it for strikes too often. Please help me understand. Is it solely the difference in velocity?|
(Ace from PA)
|It's the arm speed and deception. He can throw it in any count, at any time, to any hitter. Whether it's a LHH, RHH, doesn't matter. The sheer change of speed makes it very difficult to hit. (Jordan Gorosh)|
|2013-08-08 17:30:00 (link to chat)||Jimmy Nelson, Chris Owings, Brandon Workman, Tyler Skaggs, and Johnny Cueto just got traded for R.A. Dickey, Jonathan Papelbon, Cliff Lee, and Adam Dunn in my league. Not a fan of the veto so I wont veto this trade in my league, but just how lopsided is this for the side receiving Lee, Dickey, etc.?|
(Gary from Georgia)
It depends on if your league has contracts or allows you to slot guys into rounds if you have a draft league. Cueto is a potentially strong keep assuming health and Skaggs has a nice ceiling. I've seen leagues where getting Cueto and Skaggs will net you four players, and it's not like Dickey or Dunn have been anything close to elite. It sounds like this is atypical for your league, though. The answer to these types of questions often depend more on your league culture than anything else. (Mike Gianella)
|2012-07-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Who do you think is quietly having an outstanding season this year? Anyone flying under the radar with great numbers or significant improvement from last year?|
(Richard from Los Angeles)
|Despite the All Star bid, I don't think Carlos Ruiz is being talked up as much as I would expect. Josh Reddick has been phenomenal lately. Jason Kubel is another player outperforming at least my expectations.
For pitchers, definitely Johnny Cueto. (Dan Turkenkopf)
|2012-05-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Johnny Cueto: mirage or turning into an ace? At what point do we have to assume he's just an outlier than can consistently outperform his projections?|
(Bubs from Baltimore)
|The longer he does it, the more likely it is to be real. (Man, that was an obvious sentence.) He hasn't done it long enough for me to believe. Cueto isn't Matt Cain. For the first three seasons of his career, he was an average-BABIP guy. For the last two seasons (really just one season's worth of innings), he's been a low-BABIP guy. It's possible that he's doing something differently to depress BABIP (I'd have to investigate), but I'd bet on regression. And if/when the regression comes, he won't have the strikeout rate to sustain an elite ERA.
Come to think of it, Bubs, this question might be best answered by one of your own quotes: "Tomorrow, man. What kind of dope fiend be talking about tomorrow? Tomorrow ain't shit. Today, Johnny, today." Season three of The Wire was actually about Johnny Cueto. (Ben Lindbergh)
|2012-05-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)||How much longer can Johnny Cueto blow away his peripherals/projections? Is it possible that he's just an outlier?|
(John from San Diego)
|Lots of people want to know about Johnny Cueto, but I picked the other question to answer in depth instead of this one because it gave me an opening for a Wire quote. Let that be a lesson to future chatters. (Ben Lindbergh)|
|2012-05-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)||I love that Season 3 was about Johnny Cueto. Well done.
Cueto's minuscule ERA coincided with his new delivery, that Tiant turn he does. He's hiding the ball really well, and playing to his defense. Looks like he's having a blast every time he pitches.|
(Bubs from Baltimore)
|I'm more inclined to believe in a change in a player's stats when it coincides with a change in approach (especially when it's a pitcher, probably), but sometimes those things can be misleading. You know, "post hoc, ergo propter hoc" and all that. How many times have we seen a hot streak explained by a change in stance or mechanics, only to see the player turn right back into what he was before? It's certainly believable that greater deception could result in weaker contact, and I hope it's true in Cueto's case, because real changes in performance are always interesting. (Ben Lindbergh)|
|2012-05-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)||To clarify, Cueto's GB/FB jumped significantly along with his revamped delivery:
His HR/FB also dropped, though I'm less inclined to attribute that to a change in approach.
(RMR from Chicago)
|Hey, so, apparently Johnny Cueto has a low BABIP now and is doing things differently or something. I don't know if anyone mentioned that earlier. (Ben Lindbergh)|
|2012-03-06 13:00:00 (link to chat)||How about Johnny Cueto this year? It would be nice to see him become a solid #2 type. |
(cooldude from Mpls)
|It would, but I'm not banking on it. He'll be overvalued this year based on his low 2011 ERA, which wasn't fully deserved. He's much more of a 4.00 ERA pitcher. (Derek Carty)|
|2012-02-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)||PECOTA seems extremely down on Reds pitchers. 24 year old Mike Leake is projected to have a worse year than either of his previous (and only) 2. The skill and performance changes we've seen from 26 year old Johnny Cueto are projected to disappear. Same with Sam LeCure. There just seems to be a massive regression across the board. I'm wary of simply being a homer and wearing rose color glasses, but this seems "off", even accounting for reasonable levels of regression based on performance of year's past and to the mean. What am I missing?|
(Rick from Chicago)
|Leake is a guy whose outpitched his FIP for two straight seasons. One season he did this by having a really low BABIP, another season he did this by giving up unearned runs at twice the league average. PECOTA doesn't just look at what a guy's done, but how he's done it - some things carry with them a higher predictive value than others, and so Leake's ERAs are maybe not the best reflection of the underlying skills he has. (Colin Wyers)|
|2012-01-12 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Johnny CUeto seems to have reinvented himself as a ground-baller at the expense of his strikeout rate (and with the addition of a revamped, Tiantesque motion). What do the pitchFX data suggest about this shift?|
(RMR from Chicago)
|I've always liked left-handed starting pitchers like Cueto who can throw 93. What, you say? Cueto isn't a lefty? Oh.
For some reason, there is a contingent of RHP in baseball who seem like lefties to me and get filed in my head as such, no matter what the facts may be. Cueto must be one of those.
For starters, his BABIP isn't going to be .249 again. But that aside, his slider wasn't very good, and cutting back on it in favor of his sinker, which is good, seems like a plus. I haven't studied his new mechanics in any detail, so I can't comment much on that change. I don't know whether his deception improved, but it doesn't seem like it helped his command much (which was okay, so maybe that's not a problem). (Mike Fast)
|2011-01-18 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Need 3 keepers from the following… Carlos Ruiz $3, Nyjer Morgan $10, Johnny Cueto $12, Jorge Delarosa $9, Bud Norris $1, Jonathan Sanchez $10, Ubaldo $26. NL only, 12 teams $260 budget|
(D Brown from Pittsburgh)
|I say Ruiz, De La Rosa and Sanchez. Rob McQuown says Ruiz, Cueto and Sanchez. Cueto and DLR should both get good run support and have quality defenses behind them, though Colorado is obviously a potential problem. (Marc Normandin)|
|2010-12-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Homer Bailey, Travis Wood, Mike Leake, Matt Maloney, Sam LeCure, Aroldis Chapman. That's 9 guys for 5 rotation spots in Cincinnati. How can Jocketty best capitalize on that depth? |
(RMR from Chicago)
|A few of the brighter bulbs 'round these parts (where there isn't much call for cheddar, by the way)have made a few suggestions. IIRC, SG recommended they trade Volquez, while CK opted for shipping out Maloney, I think. Me, I'd find out what sort of a market there is for Mike Leake -- maybe he's already at his peak trade value. It's really, really hard to predict trades that actually get made, because you almost always look like you're way over- or under-valuing someone in retrospect. That being said, sitting on all that pitching is like sitting on a pot of gold, and Jocketty is sure to be a very popular man next week. (Ken Funck)|
|2010-03-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Jay, who are your pet players this year? Guys you expect to put themselves on the map or take an underrated step forward?|
(slim from Fairfield Cty)
|You know, for some reason the team I always come back to for questions like this is the Reds. Not that I EXPECT their young guys to take a step forward so much as that I'm interested to see if they can. To see if pitchers like Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake or Aroldis Chapman can succeed in that ballpark, under Dusty. To see if Jay Bruce finally lives up to the hype, if Chris Dickerson can hold down a regular corner spot. I don't actually root for the Reds, but I've been intrigued by their collection of talent for years. (Jay Jaffe)|
|2010-02-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)||are you predicting any kind of breakout from johnny cueto this year?|
(sawred14 from NJ)
|Man, I predict a breakout from Johnny Cueto *every* year. He was well on his way last year (2.69 ERA through July 1) before getting creamed in the second half, skipping a few turns due to shoulder inflammation. I actually thought they should have been more conservative, and would love to see him and Dusty Baker separated by a trade, a firing, or simply a restraining order, because there's a ton of talent there that may never come to fruition. (Jay Jaffe)|
|2010-02-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)||If the Reds find a huge pile of money under the mattress and add Johnny Damon, do they instantly become favorites for the Wild Card?|
(Scott from DC)
|Man, if the Reds understood anything about the marginal win curve, they'd already have signed Damon. He'd be a nice fit in that park, and they really could use his bat atop that lineup.
Then again, that they haven't signed him suggests that maybe they know too much about the conditions of some of those young arms. Say a prayer for Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez tonight. (Jay Jaffe)
|2009-09-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Hi Eric, thanks for the chat. I play in a fantasy league where the only pitching categories that matter are innings pitched and runs allowed. I can keep either Chris Volstad or Johnny Cueto for the next four years. Both have been inconsistent, Cueto seems to have the better arm but he pitches in a bandbox for Dusty Baker. Which one is the better bet?|
(DS from California)
|Volstad is a groundball guy with meh defenders behind him. Cueto is a young flamethrower with the worst manager for handling young flamethrowers. I'd think Volstad will be able to stay off the DL more and therefore log more frames. (Eric Seidman)|
|2009-08-28 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Tell me why Johnny Cueto is pitching Monday?? IF Stewart doesn't turn out to be something, is the Rolen deal still bad?|
(bankeravp5 from Cincy)
|Apparently, the Reds want to make Cueto's arm fall off. I have no idea what the Reds are doing. None. (John Perrotto)|
|2009-08-04 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Who do you think will be better over the next five years: Johnny Cueto or Chris Volstad?|
(Dennis from California)
|Volstad, but a lot of it has to do with the managers and especially the parks involved. (Christina Kahrl)|
|2009-04-13 14:00:00 (link to chat)||In order for the Reds to be in the wildcard race come September, they need to __________?|
(dshugert from Ohio)
|The short answer: They Aaron Harang to pitch like he did in 2006 and 2007 while Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto advance or at least hold their ground relative to last year while maintaining health. They also need Dusty to get Willy Taveras out of the leadoff spot, and preferably out of the lineup in favor of someone who can get on base regularly. (Jay Jaffe)|
|2008-12-05 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Do you Reds fans finally have reason for optimism with a solid young core of Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Edwin Encarnacion, Brandon Phillips, Chris Dickerson, Johnny Cueto, and Edinson Volquez? |
(Brandon from Charleston)
|Absolutely, there's reason for optimism so long as Dusty Baker doesn't mangle those arms.
I had the Reds as my sleeper team last year and while they didn't get there, most of the guys you mentioned are fascinating, with a ton of upside. The series I watched most closely all year long was when the Reds came to Yankee Stadium in late June.
I don't see the Reds with a shot at the 2009 NL Central but I think third place is a possibility with the right moves this winter. One of which might be taking out a restraining order against Baker from coming to the ballpark. (Jay Jaffe)
|2008-12-05 14:00:00 (link to chat)||What kind of numbers do you expect from Johnny Cueto in 2009?|
(Brandon from Charleston)
|The first thing I do to start my winter work for BP and the Fantasy Baseball Index (where I write pitcher capsules) is create something I call the DIPSheet, which uses a variety of means to evaluate pitcher performance - DIPS, QERA and a couple of others. Cueto looks to me to have performed at about a league-average level last year, and I'm bullish that he can improve, but I'd like to see him develop a pitch to keep the ball on the ground and save a bit of wear and tear on his arm - like the cut fastball Chad Billingsley picked up a couple years ago.
Without an advance, I think he's in the 4.25 ERA range give or take a quarter, probably around 180 innings. (Jay Jaffe)
|2008-10-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)||I told Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez to throw 300 sliders a day during the offseason. It builds arm strength. |
(Dusty Baker from Cincinnati)
|Better them than nine year olds. What? (Will Carroll)|
|2008-10-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)||With quality young talent like Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Joey Votto, and others, do you think the Reds are close to contending?|
(smitty25039 from Charleston)
|If you haven't already, check out Kevin Goldstein's article on which teams might be the "next Rays" in the NL. http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8203
The Reds are close, but as Goldstein says, the outlook is "semi-bright, but not perfect." One big problem is the outfield corners; they've got nobody now without Dunn, and it doesn't look like minor league center fielder Drew Stubbs is quite ready to make enough impact with the bat to move Jay Bruce to a corner. According to Goldstein, Cincinnati is also pretty weak in pitching prospects beyond the group that already hit the majors this season, and the 2008 results from Homer Bailey were discouraging. Still, Cueto and Volquez are a fantastic young duo, and I'm pretty high on Ramon Ramirez, too, who pitched well in September and has a nasty changeup. Not in 2009, but by 2010 they could be fighting for a division title if that starting trio continues to develop. (Caleb Peiffer)
|2008-07-29 16:00:00 (link to chat)||According to pitcher abuse points, Johnny Cueto (20th overall) has been ridden pretty hard for a 22-year-old. Do you expect him to endure the same fate of other young pitchers managed by Dusty Baker?|
(Connor from Chicago, IL)
|Quick - someone look up the PAP for Prior and Wood in 2003 and compare to Cueto and Volquez. I haven't got a clue, but I bet it's not close. (Will Carroll)|
|2008-05-27 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Why aren't the Reds a little better? I like their top 4 a lot and even with Bruce and Bailey in the minors the core of Philips/Votto/Dunn/Encarnacion seems like it should put up some runs... Now with Bruce up can they make a push?|
(justin from Michigan)
|That's the weird thing about the Reds. If I were a Reds fan, I'd actually be pretty excited about several of my performances this year: Volquez, obviously, but also Joey Votto, Keppinger; Johnny Cueto has had longball issues, but his strikeout rate is very good. I think they very well could be a second-half sleeper, particularly as Bruce is a huge upgrade over Patterson. I'd certainly rather have $100 bucks riding on them than, say, the Astros. (Nate Silver)|
|2008-04-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Hi Will, Johnny Cueto has made a big early impression but he has now logged a huge amount of innings over the past year. If you were the Reds GM (and after you have unceremoniously fired Dusty Baker) would you set a hard limit on him as per Joba and Bucholz? |
(mattseward from Cardiff. UK)
|I'm not sure I'd fire Dusty, to be honest. This is the kind of team he can succeed with. I also wouldn't set a hard limit because I don't believe in hard limits. All that said, I'd certainly have some sort of monitoring system, along the lines of what the Red Sox do, put in place immediately and tell Dusty that the system would tell him when a pitcher had to come out. (Will Carroll)|
|2008-03-17 12:00:00 (link to chat)||Hey Mike, here's a question that appears to be growing more and more relevant: of the following up-and-coming SPs, can you rank them in terms of value they will provide to a fantasy team THIS YEAR assuming they all get spots in the rotation? The SPs are Manny Parra, Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Ian Kennedy, Gio Gonzalez and Jonathan Sanchez. This should be relevant to most fantasy players looking to make a great WW pickup early in the season.|
(The Grinch from Whoville)
|I guess you were one of the millions to go see see Horton hears a Who huh?
Parra is making the Brewers make a tough decision but may not make the club at first. Volquez has a lot to prove. Cueto and Kennedy are arms that the Reds and yanks absolutely love and right now they are my top two of this list. I can't see Gio not being a member of the rotation this year at some point but when is up to a few factors and Sanchez like parra is nice sleeper with high upside. Solid list of names. (Mike Siano)
|2008-03-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Who do you think comes up first, Gio Gonzalez or Johnny Cueto, and which do you think has the better chance of having success for this year?|
(Momar from USA)
|Gonzalez, I think, just because the A's rotation is a little more unsettled, and he's more or less considered a medium-risk, medium-reward guy who should be ready relatively soon. Gonzalez is a good example of a prospect you might grab late in a fantasy draft with an eye toward actually getting something out of him in the second half of 2008. (Nate Silver)|
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