Jeremy Hellickson PNationals
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Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET
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2019 Preseason Forecast
Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET
|2017-08-24 19:00:00 (link to chat)||Hey Ben! What's your favorite thing about writing Transaction Analysis pieces here at BP?|
(Bryan G. from Rhode Island)
|Hey Bryan G. (hmmm, name rings a bell for some reason)!
I've only gotten to write a couple TAs so far, but, man, it's been fun so far. As a serial overthinker, I'll savor any opportunity to write down my instant reactions to a noteworthy move, and the results can be pretty damn fun (or mean, if you're Jeremy Hellickson...sorry bud). I'm also a firm believer in every player having a story worth telling, so the challenge of making a colorful analysis for a seemingly boring player is pretty cool. (Ben Diamond)
|2016-12-01 19:00:00 (link to chat)||Which undervalued SP veterans would you aggressively be pursuing to help in 2017 only?|
(SPG from LA)
|Jeremy Hellickson had a solid season and will still be undervalued in '17. My strategy in most leagues this year is going to be a star-and-scrubs with starting pitchers, so this is a tough question to answer. It's all about price points. I like Julio Teheran to break out, but he's hardly a sleeper in any league. (Mike Gianella)|
|2016-08-01 16:00:00 (link to chat)||Why are the Phillies not moving anyone?|
(t0mmyo from Philly)
|It's possible that they made a trade and it hasn't been reported as I type this at around 4:30 pm ET, but the market was quiet. My guess is that they didn't get the prospects they wanted for Jeremy Hellickson and there wasn't as much interest in Jeanmar Gomez as you might expect in a reliever crazy market. The Phillies are probably going to QO Hellickson with the idea that they can either trade him next year if he accepts and will get a draft pick if he signs somewhere else. (Mike Gianella)|
|2015-10-19 19:00:00 (link to chat)||In your Tout Wars season. If you made 1 draft mistake, what was it? And if you made 1 in season mistake, what was it? |
(JoelNick11 from Indiana)
|My big auction mistake was purchasing Ryu for $11, not because of the injury news (which was positive the morning of the auction) but because it hindered me later and kept me away from pitchers like DeSclafani, who I liked, and other cheap pitchers who would have been better to speculate on than the $11 Ryu. It also kept me from buying some slightly more expensive fliers on the hitters side. Based on when I purchased him, the timing was bad.
It didn't hurt me, but trading Addison Russell and Jeremy Hellickson for Shelby Miller was awful, particularly because I was gunning for wins. Never trade for pitcher wins. It almost never works out. (Tout Wars Champ Mike Gianella)
|2015-09-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)||You mentioned Davies ..... what is it you like about him?|
(Beats from Bydre)
|A number of things: his athleticism, his command, his changeup, and his pitchability. He understands how to change speeds and keep batters off balance, and so on. He's pitcher's pitcher type, and I'm a sucker for those. That doesn't mean I have zero reservations-he's short and thin, which is a dangerous combination-but my hope is his athleticism allows him to manage the workload that comes with being a big-league starter. I get a young Jeremy Hellickson vibe when I watch Davies. I think that about sums it up. (R.J. Anderson)|
|2014-06-26 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Thoughts on Jeremy Hellickson once he comes off the DL?|
(Jayson from Tampa)
|Blah. I'm mostly apathetic. The profile isn't overly attractive. I'll be interested to see what his velocity is like when he returns. He's a fly-ball, home-run prone pitcher without the requisite strikeouts. He'll always walk a fine line. When he can consistently induce weak contact and limit his BABIP, he'll find success. When he doesn't, he'll get bombed like he did in 2013. It's just not anything I'm going to get excited about. (J.P. Breen)|
|2014-05-02 14:00:00 (link to chat)||I've noticed that several of the Rays starters pitch from what looks like a modified version of the stretch (David Price, Alex Cobb, etc.) Is this an org. thing and do you agree with teaching it? #teamstretch|
(Snake Odorizzi from Arizona)
|I definitely like the idea of having a windup that is much more similar to the stretch, requiring the pitcher to master a single delivery rather than two (or more). Staying with the Rays, Jeremy Hellickson is an interesting case example, as he was much better in 2012 when he typically used a regular leg lift from the stretch (his stretch delivery was actually better than his windup), but then he started using the slide step all the time with runners on base last season. It will be interesting to see what Tampa does with Helix when he returns, as he is an excellent candidate to throw from his regular stretch (ie no slide step) at all times, regardless of the baserunner situation.
On the jukebox: The Clash, "London's Burning" (Doug Thorburn)
|2013-12-20 14:00:00 (link to chat)||As part of my off season studying, I was hoping you could narrow my field of pitchers to look at. After the top 36 pitchers, what pitchers have mph difference greater than ten between their fastball and changeup pitch? Breaking pitches, I want to include the other off speed pitches in a later question after I have done some studying on my own. Thanks for clarity as always Doug. I love your work. |
(allangustafson from Fun Diego)
|Players that come to mind: Jeremy Hellickson, Randall Delgado, Jarrod Parker, Scott Kazmir (Doug Thorburn)|
|2013-12-20 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Can Jeremy Hellickson be fixed ? Can Henderson Alvarez keep it going ?|
(tbwhite from San Diego)
|Helix can certainly be fixed, and it starts by killing the slide step. He used to throw in the slide step every once in awhile to keep runners honest, but last season he invoked the slide step every friggin' pitch with a runner on base.
An interesting element for Alvarez was that he scrapped the change-up last season, a pitch that had been roped in previous years. His excellent command of raw 93-95 mph velocity with good sink is the main ingredient to his success, with a solid slider that gives hitters another look.It will be interesting to see what he brings to the table in 2014. (Doug Thorburn)
|2013-09-06 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Doug - To both the good and the bad, which pitcher's results this year most flew in the face of his mechanics? Thanks|
(R.A. Wagman from Thornhhill)
|The good - Probably Greg Holland, who I discussed last week in Raising Aces. His mechanics absolutely do not support such a low walk rate, and he is surviving on pure fastball velocity and sheer movement on the slider.
The bad - Jeremy Hellickson. I really like his delivery overall, and prior to this season he had shown exceptional repetition of mechanical timing, such that Jose Molina could set up outside the borders of the strike zone and expect Helix to hit the location. Most frustrating is that Hellickson has changed his approach with runners on, invoking a slide step on every pitch from the stretch. He used to mix in the occasional slide step from the stretch, but most of his pitches with runners on base were actually better than the windup because he increased his momentum while maintaining a big leg kick, giving him a deeper release point. But his release is very shallow when uses the slide step, and the massive timing difference from windup to stretch has tarnished his repetition this season. The Rays are smart organization, so here's hoping that they can get him to revert back to what worked for the past few seasons.
On the jukebox: Ozzy Osbourne, "Mr. Crowley" (Doug Thorburn)
|2013-08-27 13:00:00 (link to chat)||What has gone wrong with Jeremy Hellickson? Dead arm? The Luck Dragon finally getting his revenge on Jeremy's gross misuse of his powers? Location problems?|
(jlarsen from Chicago, IL)
|haven't looked at the location (lazy) but I don't think his arm is dead. For one thing, his change up is firmer. And his FB was down at the beginning of the year and hasn't declined. (Harry Pavlidis)|
|2013-08-27 13:00:00 (link to chat)||If Jeremy Hellickson continues to falter in his next couple of starts, do you think Rays may give newly-crowned IL MVP JD Martin a start or 2 in September?|
(jlarsen from chicago, IL)
|only if they feel like he gives them a better shot (Harry Pavlidis)|
|2013-07-16 13:00:00 (link to chat)||In 10 team mixed league, 5x5, should I pick up Jeremy Hellickson and drop Mike Leake? Also does your wife know the password to your phone? If not, does she ask you what are you hiding like mine does?|
(Turtle from Lake Flourish)
|In a 10 team mixed league 5 x 5 you should not ever have a pitcher like Hellickson or Leake clogging up your roster.
My phone doesn't have a password. My phone is the most mockable phone. My phone probably has Snake on it. (Sam Miller)
|2013-05-22 18:00:00 (link to chat)||Hey Jason. Just wondering what was going on with Jeremy Hellickson. I was counting on him getting a bunch of Innings (my fantasy league has innings pitched as a category) and a low ERA. Is it just a lack of command from compared to his former self, or is there more at play? There was criticism from Maddon that his late game approach has been different, especially in his last start against the O's with those back to back to back to back change-ups. Do you think he can upright the ship soon? Thanks, and enjoy the work you do on BP and the Process Report!|
(Mark from Winter Garden, FL)
|Hellickson is having trouble locating his pitches. It is something I wrote about over the weekend here - http://theprocessreport.wordpress.com/2013/05/18/jeremy-hellickson-struggles-with-command/ . He has a 1.29 WHIP and a 5.82 ERA - that's a big disconnect. I see a guy that is hanging secondary pitches and struggling with fastball command right now, and I don't like it. (Jason Collette)|
|2013-05-22 18:00:00 (link to chat)||Jeremy Hellickson. What's the deal bro? Are his days of outperforming his sabermeters over, or is it mechanical? It pains me to watch this.|
(PhilumciousPhil from OHIO)
|I've yet to see a game where he's had all 3 of his pitches together. The curveball has not been good most of the season although it has looked better since the 1st in the game being played now. Buy low; he could have a 3.25 ERA the rest of the way. (Jason Collette)|
|2013-04-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Hellickson had himself a day today, but might not be enough for Tampa. Is this the year his K-stuff really lines up with his MiLB history? |
(Darnell from Scranton)
|Thanks for joining us, Darnell. I don't know about the strikeouts, but Jeremy Hellickson entered today with a 3.15 ERA in 413 IP for his career. Flaws inherent in ERA notwithstanding, he's been a pretty successful pitcher so far. (Geoff Young)|
|2013-01-16 13:30:00 (link to chat)||Do you think this is what Jeremy Hellickson is? Or is there still room for growth?|
(Jake from Kalamazoo)
|There hasn't been a lot of projection in Hellickson's game for quite some time, so expecting some at this stage wouldn't make much sense to me. I think he's largely maxed out developmentally, but he's pretty damn good as it stands right now. (Mark Anderson)|
|2012-12-04 14:00:00 (link to chat)||What else is going on with the Rays? Are the negotiations with Washington for Michael Morse and Danny Espinosa for Jeremy Hellickson still a possibility?|
(Steve G. from Athens, OH)
|They were as of last night, Steve G., so I think that something along those lines remains a possibility. Talks might heat up if/when the Nationals find common ground with Adam LaRoche.
There are a bunch of questions about the Rays, namely Hellickson and Shields, in the queue, so I'll use this as a sort of catchall answer. CBS Sports' Jon Heyman wrote this morning that with Zack Greinke representing the only elite free agent starting pitcher, and with the bidding on Greinke reportedly sky-high, the Rays are increasingly tempted to cash in on one of their starters. I don't think Tampa Bay will move Price, but at this point, either Hellickson or Shields seems a good bet to go. If nothing comes to fruition with the Nats, another possibility might be a deal with the Twins for Josh Willingham, though it's not yet clear if Minnesota is inclined to move him. (Daniel Rathman)
|2012-11-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Where do you see James Shields pitching in 2013?|
(baseballjunkie from cali)
|Hello again, baseballjunkie. The Angels and Twins seem like possible trade partners, now that the Dodgers have seemingly moved on, but I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see the Rays hang on to Shields for the first half of the season, before reevaluating their situation. There were some rumblings last week that Jeremy Hellickson was the hotter commodity on the trade market, though I'm sure the Rays will be more averse to moving him given the difference in service time. (Daniel Rathman)|
|2012-03-15 12:00:00 (link to chat)||Everyone is all excited about Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, and the rest of the young pitchers in Tampa Bay, but let's flip that coin and think negatively for a moment: Hellickson didn't punch out hitters last year, Davis hasn't developed as expected, etc. Are you concerned at all about this, or is it just part of their development curve in a tough AL East?|
(Marc from Internet)
|I'm more concerned with Davis than Hellickson.
Everyone knows about Hellickson's shaky peripherals and shiny earned run average, and every local writer seems to be waging war with BABIP. Here's the three things you (and they) may not know:
1) Hellickson's walk rate was inflated by eight intentional passes.
2) PITCHf/x data shows that Hellickson missed a ton of bats within the zone, yet held a strikeout rate lower than the other non-knuckleballers with similar whiff rates.
3) He got infield flies by the bushel.
Will all of that continue? Hard to say, but I'm confident he'll be fine.
Davis is more of an enigma to me. He has command issues and he lacked an outpitch for most of last season. He also didn't have his best velocity until he went on the disabled list. He has not developed into the physical power pitcher we all thought he would become, but he did seem to develop confidence in using his curveball against righties as the year went on, and if he can improve on his cutter-in place of a changeup-he could become an okay middle-of-the-rotation starter.
It doesn't help that both of those guys have had to grow up in the AL East. (R.J. Anderson)
|2012-01-12 13:00:00 (link to chat)||You gave us your breakout/surprise pitcher for this season. Give us some SP you think will regress this season|
(CharlieWerner from York, PA)
|The simple answer is the list of SP with the lowest BABIP last year. Now, if you've followed me for any length of time, you know I don't believe that DIPS is necessarily anywhere close to gospel truth. But if you want to go to Vegas and make bets, you'll pick a lot more winners than losers if you just go with DIPS.
So Jeremy Hellickson, say. Yeah, some of it's Rays defense and some of it's his changeup. But starting pitchers of any stripe, even in front of a good defense, don't regularly put up a BABIP lower than .270 or so. (Mike Fast)
|2011-09-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)||What are the reasons against starting Matt Moore over Jeff Nieman down the stretch?|
(JDanger from chicago)
|Because Niemann hasn't pitched badly - Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson have higher FIPs, by the way - and because Moore is nearing his innings cap. (Jay Jaffe)|
|2011-09-02 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Would Rick Porcello, at age 22, fall into the same category that you just put Jeremy Hellickson in? I.E. with his stuff he needs time to learn, even after 3 seasons? Thanks.|
(lemppi from Iowa)
|That's a fascinating way to look at things, and while I'm not totally convinced, I think it's possible to think you are onto something. (Kevin Goldstein)|
|2010-10-12 12:00:00 (link to chat)||Do you think the rookie crop of 2011 will measure up to the high standard of 2010? If not, will there still be game-changing rookies to take note of?|
(David from New York)
|I don't think they will, but that's only because the bar was set so high this year between Heyward, Posey, Stanton and Bumgarner. Santana and Strasburg also burned brightly, if briefly.
But there will still be plenty of great rookies. Jesus Montero will make his debut, Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson will be full-time players, and Kyle Drabek will probably spend considerable time in the majors. And that's just the AL East! (Tommy Bennett)
|2010-10-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Do you see the Rays trading a starter to make room for Jeremy Hellickson, or perhaps shifting one to the bullpen? Which pitcher would you try to trade?|
(Kevin from Right here)
|That makes sense and I suspect Matt Garza could be the one as the Rays look to cut the payroll. (John Perrotto)|
|2010-07-22 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Hi Tommy, thanks for the chat today. Any word on an ETA for Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson in Tampa? Thanks. |
(will0911 from VT)
|They're both blocked pretty well (by Carl Crawford and Wade Davis, basically). On most other teams they'd both already be on the major league roster. I think this is the year when Tampa will actually make a decent-sized deadline move, so let's just wait a little longer and see if there isn't room at the inn in two weeks. (Tommy Bennett)|
|2010-07-26 14:00:00 (link to chat)||What kind of package could the Nats get from the Rays for A. Dunn?|
(mwyche from Silver Spring)
|From Mike Rizzo's perspective, it would be Desmond Jennings, Jeremy Hellickson and maybe B.J. Upton. Sounds to me like he wants the moon. I don't have a good answer for this, honestly, not having a KG-like encyclopedic knowledge of the Rays's sytem, but if I were the Rays, I wouldn't give up any top prospects. And I say that as a guy who adores Adam Dunn -- but I'd rather bank on their own guys hitting better down the stretch than give up something really valuable for Dunn. (Ken Funck)|
|2010-06-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Please rank the following in the order in which you think they will make their big league debuts: Mike Moustakas; Pedro Alvarez; Logan Morrison; Freddie Freeman; Madison Bumgarner; Jeremy Hellickson. Does anyone in this group make a significant fantasy impact in 2010?|
(Chillin' from Waiver Wire)
|I'm not terribly good at this kind of thing, but what the heck:
Alvarez, Moustakas, Hellickson, Morrison, Bumgarner, Freeman
I think the first three will see at least a sprinkling of big league time this year. The others I'm not so sure about. (Tommy Bennett)
|2009-08-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Will the Rays get a nice advantage in the Wild Card race based upon the quality of September callups they can make (Wade Davis, Matt Joyce, maybe Jeremy Hellickson)?|
(achaik from ME)
|Nah. It's nice to have those guys, but no September call-ups play enough to make that big a difference, or at least not predictably so. (And anybody can go .390/.460/.710 for a month.) (Joe Sheehan)|
|2009-05-07 14:00:00 (link to chat)||I notice that you gave Daryl Jones four stars but he didn't make the top 100. Did he just miss the cut? Were there other four star guys that didn't make it?|
(Ben F from California)
|Yes, he just missed. Yes, I'd probably put him in it now. Seriously people, is there some organized movement to pick ONE guy in each of my chats and bombard me with questions about him. Is Daryl Jones the new Jeremy Hellickson who was the new Tyler Clippard? (Kevin Goldstein)|
|2009-02-16 14:00:00 (link to chat)||A wise sage wrote:
"... fills the strike zone with an effective three-pitch mix; a low-90s fastball that has good carry through the zone, a curveball thatís a plus offering due to his ability to locate the pitch, and a changeup that features good deception. The advanced secondary offerings make him equally effective against both lefties and righties, and he attacks hitters without fear... is credited with a mature, intellectual approach to the game that defies his youth."
If I substituted Jeremy Hellickson for the actual player, where would I be wrong?|
(Pedro Cerrano is my President from Cleveland, OH)
|You wouldn't be necessarily wrong, but you wouldn't be telling the whole story, which includes some real bouts with consistency, an undersized frame, and to steal re-mix my favorite line from Amadeus, a guy who can be accused of "too many strikes." I like him plenty, just not that much. Hellickson was one of those guys that generated an email jihad to my inbox, so at least his fans are organized. (Kevin Goldstein)|
|2008-07-22 13:00:00 (link to chat)||What do you think of Nick Barnese so far? Based on his success so far, could be have the potential of Jake McGee (pre-injury)and Jeremy Hellickson?|
(Mike from Florida)
|No, but that doesn't mean I don't like him. He's just not the some kind of power arm that McGee is, and while he has very good command and control, it's not elite like Hellickson's. That said, I really do like him plenty. (Kevin Goldstein)|
|2008-06-23 12:00:00 (link to chat)||David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, Jake McGee and Wade Davis....do the Montgomery Biscuits have one of the best 1-4 rotations in the minor leagues right now?|
(jlarsen from DRays Bay)
|That's a question better suited for our prospect maven, Kevin Goldstein, but you've got to like that rotation a whole lot. If they were hocky players, they'd be able to put the biscuit in the basket. (John Perrotto)|
|2008-05-09 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Jeremy Hellickson or Trevor Cahill? Which pitcher would you pick?|
(Mike from Utica)
|While Hellickson's numbers are surreal, I'll take Cahill, understanding that I'm also a bit biased. (Christina Kahrl)|
|2008-05-05 12:30:00 (link to chat)||What do you think of Jeremy Hellickson's excellent start this year?|
(Mike from Utica)
|As fantastically shocking as the numbers are, it surprises me very little that Jeremy has been able to succeed in six starts. He's, in a sense, the pitcher's version of Travis Snider -- it's possible to be so polished that normal development patterns just don't fit. I would like Tampa to consider moving Hellickson up very soon, because it's clear he's just too polished for this level. Yes, if you leave him he'll regress to the FSL mean a bit, but why not challenge him rather than to simply let him regress. Hellickson has worked so hard the last few years on his strength (which has resulted in a velocity uptick), in his endurance and on his breaking ball, and they are paying dividends. Simply, it's time to move him up, and it was probably time before his first start. (Bryan Smith)|
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