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Chat: Jason Collette

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Wednesday May 22, 2013 6:00 PM ET chat session with Jason Collette.


Jason takes your fantasy questions.

Jason Collette: watching Mark Buehrle throw fastballs makes me think I could pitch at the big league level.

Brad (Everywhere): Who has a better rest of the season; Carlos Gomez or Allen Craig?

Jason Collette: Gomez, because his surrounding cast is about to get better. Once Weeks realizes the 2013 season has begun and Hart gets in the lineup, Milwaukee's lineup has the potential to be incredibly productive.

Mark (Winter Garden, FL): Hey Jason. Just wondering what was going on with Jeremy Hellickson. I was counting on him getting a bunch of Innings (my fantasy league has innings pitched as a category) and a low ERA. Is it just a lack of command from compared to his former self, or is there more at play? There was criticism from Maddon that his late game approach has been different, especially in his last start against the O's with those back to back to back to back change-ups. Do you think he can upright the ship soon? Thanks, and enjoy the work you do on BP and the Process Report!

Jason Collette: Hellickson is having trouble locating his pitches. It is something I wrote about over the weekend here - http://theprocessreport.wordpress.com/2013/05/18/jeremy-hellickson-struggles-with-command/ . He has a 1.29 WHIP and a 5.82 ERA - that's a big disconnect. I see a guy that is hanging secondary pitches and struggling with fastball command right now, and I don't like it.

Sissy Cuck (Orlando): What do you think of Eric Hosmer? Can he get dat power back?

Jason Collette: I think he needs to make more faces when he hits and stretches for throws at first. Until he can elevate pitches, he's not going to hit for power. His groundball rate is awful

Hoppy (Scotland): Hey Jason, love your podcast with PaulS. What do you foresee in Yonder Alonso's future? Double power turning into homer power somewhat like Country Breakfast in 2012? cheers, Hoppy

Jason Collette: Thanks, we love recording it for everyone. I see James Loney in his future to be honest. He'll hit for average and drive in runs, but 20 HRs would be a reach for him.

PhilumciousPhil (The Sun): Which Tommy John Return-ee do you think will have the most success THIS season: Daniel Hudson, Brandon Beachy, or Corey Luebke?

Jason Collette: None? I don't like taking TJ returnees that 1st season back because control is always the last thing to come back. If you made me take one of them, I'll take Beachy but I'd rather roster them in keeper leagues for next year.

Turtle (Lake Flourish): Is James Loney real?

Jason Collette: He is using all parts of the field and making hard contact in doing so. So far, he's looked good vs LH which is huge because he has historically been horrendous against them. I'm not a fan of lineup protection, but Maddon & Longoria insist Evan is seeing better pitches with Loney hitting behind him. I can barely type that sentence with a straight face.

TeenWolf (FullCourtPress): Best baseball writer that most people haven't heard of?

Jason Collette: Gary Armida - quietly does excellent work

Bill (New Mexico): Got a quick take on Tyler Lyons, latest product of the Cardinals' pitching assembly line? Incidentally, who's next out of that factory after Lyons?

Jason Collette: I'd hope Wacha would be next in line after Lyons. He has much more upside while Lyons is a very back end type of guy.

Bobby (KC): Hey Jason. Where do you stand on the lesser Upton? BJ has been killing me in a 10-team mixed points league. Drop or stay patient?

Jason Collette: I have Upton on my bench in my NFBC league until he shows life. And, no, hitting a home run off Vance Worley does not count. He looks as bad if not worse than his bad slumps with Tampa Bay.

jeremydneezy (brooklyn): Have Holliday, Choo, A Jones, Gordon and Victorino in H2H roto 10 team with 3 OF spots, and 3 U spots (Altive is the 6th guy). Should I trade Gordon for any two-man combo of Ryu, Pettitte, Haren and Brett Anderson? Need Ks and Ws.

Jason Collette: No. I don't don trust any of the other 3 pitchers. 2 have bad backs and one has more injured parts than he does healthy parts.

jackys (california): Need saves to contend. In a 4X4 keeper (no Ks or Rs) would you trade Moore $12 and Cishek $8 for Homer $2, Valverde and Henderson (FAs)? The hope is Homer isn't too much of a downgrade and Papa and Henderson keep their jobs all year. Too much risk?

Jason Collette: I could sign off on that

DanDaMan (SeaCliff): Jason, I've asked this question before, but never really received an answer- are there any injury updates on the site, similar to UTK (sorry, don't remember what it was renamed last year, but that was good too)? This is kind of a big deal in fantasy as you know. Am I missing something? Thanks

Jason Collette: There is not, to my knowledge. It's a tough angle to cover that requires a special type of skillset to process the injury news and get the connections required to get the info. With HIPPA laws in place, the information is really tough to get which is why you see so few sites having any kind of person. Most that do have someone with a Doctor degree.

Ragnhild (Norway): I am currently rostering both Brett Lawrie and Nolan Arenado in a 12-team H2H redraft league (OBP replaces AVG otherwise standard 5 categories). I don't want to carry more than one 3B and neither has trade value...who should I drop? I just can't imagine a world where I regret dropping Lawrie at this point...am I wrong?

Jason Collette: Lawrie looks horrendous to me. He has poor pitch selection and tries to destroy every baseball thrown his way. I see him get himself out more often than not by going after the pitcher's pitch rather than waiting for one he can do something with. Arenado has less major league experience but already does this better.

Adrian (Washington D.C.): What do you think of Segura? Sell high, or keep forever and ever.

Jason Collette: Hold him, cherish him, love him. He is special.

Brian (Tinley): Hey Jason - I have 2 pitchers that drive me crazy on my roster right now - Hellickson and Morrow. Would dropping either one of them for McCarthy make any sense? Or am I continuing to beat my heAx against a wall with a move like that? Thanks, Brian

Jason Collette: I've been advocating to buy low on McCarthy for a few weeks on the podcast, but I wouldn't do it for either of those guys. They have more upside and McCarthy is always an injury risk.

Ed (Cranford, NJ): Isn't A.J. Ramos going to get saves in Miami?

Jason Collette: Why not Mike Dunn? I know he's a lefty but nobody has a clear shot at the 1 save a week there

DanDaMan (SeaCliff): Hey Jason- here's my situation: I picked up Jhonny Peralta and Kelly Johnson to fill in for Aybar and Aaron Hill. They have both exceeded expectations to the point that I haven't put Aybar back in my lineup and I'm really not sure I'd put in Hill when he returns. Complicating the situation I just managed to pick up Profar as well. My dilemma is that I'm not sure any of them really have fair trade value for me and I don't want to drop them. Your thoughts on the players involved and what you would do with the situation? Thanks

Jason Collette: Aaron Hill hasn't resumed baseball activities yet and Profar doesn't have a clear path to playing time after Kinsler returns. Johnson has been outstanding and I think he could be in line for more playing time out of the 2-hole here eventually because he's that productive with his plate appearances. I'd try to move Profar first, and then Peralta because at least Johnson is also running.

DF (Wilmington, NC): What are your favorite "buy-low" NL SP's? My league really only focuses in IP and RA, so things like a good defense behind a pitcher and lots of games in pitchers' parks against bad offenses add value. Thanks!

Jason Collette: It was McCarthy and Vogelsong but one is now hot and one is now broken. I still like Marco Estrada and I'd test the waters on the guys who own Matt Cain and Ian Kennedy

Dave (Boston): Thanks for the question - what are you expecting from Gausman?

Jason Collette: a bright future....eventually. The matchup against Toronto is a decent one to start with.

Alex (Anaheim): Is Brandon Morrow a lost cause right now, or do you see him turning it around?

Jason Collette: The back issues are red flags for a guy whose health is never a green light. He's not getting enough swings and misses for a guy with his stuff which worries me.

LoyalRoyal (Kansas): Need to trade a SP for a power hitter out of the following: Cueto, Iwakuma, Medlen, C.J. Wilson, Haren, E. Jackson, Phelps and now Gausman. Who would you deal and who would you target? 5x5 OBP. Thanks...

Jason Collette: If you want a power hitter, you're going to have to deal Iwakuma. If I'm the other team, I'm not giving up a big bat for the other guys the way they're looking.

ares1800jr (San Anto): Trade outlook. 12 team 6X6 OPS and holds 36 man rosters plus 8 minor leaguers. Other team is 1-6 he has Big Papi at $10 on expiring contract. I'm 4-2-1 and i offered Cobb $1 and Dirks $1. Is that close? I can also throw in Cris Carter $1 and random holds RP guy. Any other older guys in keeper leagues to target when in win now mode?

Jason Collette: You're overpaying for a short term need if you add a third guy and I'd rather have Cobbs and Dirks moving forward.

Jquinton82 (NY): Whats up with Lawrie?

Jason Collette: His temper

Jonny (Vegas, NV): Miami Marlins break 1942 Phillies futility record?

Jason Collette: they're aiming for the 1899 Cleveland Spiders

Aceathon (Texas): Is Neal Cotts real or is he a figment of our imagination? What about his performance in AAA and so far at the MLB level? (Obviously he'll have some hiccups and we have SSS)

Jason Collette: He's always been a tough guy to pick up for hitters but his command comes and goes like the wind. Deep AL speculation if you need K's from relief.

PhilumciousPhil (OHIO): Jeremy Hellickson. What's the deal bro? Are his days of outperforming his sabermeters over, or is it mechanical? It pains me to watch this.

Jason Collette: I've yet to see a game where he's had all 3 of his pitches together. The curveball has not been good most of the season although it has looked better since the 1st in the game being played now. Buy low; he could have a 3.25 ERA the rest of the way.

Sissy Cuck (Orlando): Who has a better ROS Jed Lowrie or Andrus?

Jason Collette: Andrus - simply on games played as Lowrie has never shown the ability to play a full season.

Kyle (Winterfell): What do you think about Lawrie ROS? I was offered Profar for him and am considering it only because I have Cano at 2B and Arenado at 3B. Is he even an upgrade over Arenado at this point. 12 team mixed keeper league by the way.

Jason Collette: I don't like Lawrie, but I also don't like prospects that could be back in AAA after next weekend.

dave (boston): Send JZimm/Cobb/Segura to get Strasburg/Kimbrel/Headley? 10-tm 6x6 redraft roto with OPS added. K/9, IP, QS instead of Wins.

Jason Collette: No....hold on to the group you have

PhilumciousPhil (The Sun): Are Brandon Belt loyalist finally going to be repaid for their unwaivering faith (pun intended) this season? 20+ HR's and double digit steals likely? If so, counting stat wise, is he not the Eric Hosmer that most people were looking for this season?

Jason Collette: That's 14 HRs & 8 SB the rest of the way. I'd still take him over Hosmer

@TomahawkNation (other batter's box): Wider: CB's strike zone, or the scope of questions here?

Jason Collette: Bucknor's zone isn't wide as it is inconsistent. Inconsistency bugs more much more than creating your own strike zone. If you're going to be bad, be consistently bad.

Cal Guy (Cal): Which pitching prospects can be true #1 starters in the majors?

Jason Collette: Cole, Bundy, Walker, Fernandez

JomTones (CwoTents): Matt Joyce owns May. Who owns June?

Jason Collette: Pujols has the highest active career OPS in June at 1.051. Put me down for Weeks waking up as well

Cal Guy (Cal): Hypothetical: If Cole, Appel, Gausman and Gray were all draft eligible this year, in what order would you choose them?

Jason Collette: Cole, Gausman, Gray, Appel

Cal Guy (Cal): Disregarding position, who would you rather have long term, Myers or Bogaerts?

Jason Collette: Bogaerts

Cal Guy (Cal): When will it be WACHA Time in St. Louis?

Jason Collette: I don't predict GM moves......I found I was wrong more often than Florida weather forecasters

dave (boston): JZimm/Cobb/Segura or Strasburg/Kimbrel/Headley? 10-tm with OPS, IP, K/9 and QS instead of Wins.

Jason Collette: Side A, still

Cal Guy (Cal): Do you see Kyle Gibson getting the call soon, and what do you expect from him if so?

Jason Collette: I liked what I saw from Gibson when I saw him pitch in the AFL. Throws strikes, locates well, and pitches with maturity that belies his age.

Kyle (My basement): How far into a dynasty season do you go before making some dump trades? I'm 1-6 in my H2H 10 team points league with no real hope of contending this year. I do have some pieces I can move for younger players though.

Jason Collette: I have dumped as early as 5/1 in a dynasty league. Do what you think is best for your team and if your leaguemates whine about it, offer to have them pay your team fee if they're going to run it for you.

Joe (Seattle): Is Brett Gardner or Nate McClouth an upgrade over Melky Cabrera?

Jason Collette: McLouth. He is running nearly every time he is on base and he has thunder behind him to knock him in.

Kyle (Denver): What do you think of Johnathan Singleton once he gets up?

Jason Collette: I don't know if he gets called up this season since he missed 50 games because he smoked weed when he could have just driven drunk and played on opening day (yay logic!). He's a super kid to talk to and the ball jumps off his bat, but I would be surprised if he sees time beyond September.

dave (boston): Trade segura for kimbrel? Can stopgap until reyes off the dL

Jason Collette: That's a potential 5 week stopgap. I'd pass

wes (west coast): Reyes stop gap: aybar, lowrie or dee gordon. OpS lg

Jason Collette: In that order is fine

MickeyRivers (Philadelphia): Gregory Polanco has been tearing up the FSL. Must add in all keeper leagues?

Jason Collette: I have him in my NL keeper league. Bright future

Joe (Seattle): Who do you think I can get in a dynasty league with minors rosters for Carlos Correa? Keep forever. I understand this is a hard question without league/team context but I'm just looking for a general baseline in how you value him. Hunter Pence reasonable?

Jason Collette: You have to find someone else with patience to wait for him. I took him in my AL keeper league this season with the full intent on holding onto him knowing only one or two other guys in the league would take him in a trade this season.

nubber (tx): Do you think Ricky Nolasco is back to being fantasy relevant?

Jason Collette: I've been one of the 3 guys who has never quit his fantasy fan club. I would add him now before the Marlins trade him to a contending team where his run support should pick up.

Matt (Chicago): Does Javier Baez's so-so start have you concerned or is he gonna be a beast? The power tool seems undeniable.

Jason Collette: I pay 10x more attention to the reports our prospect guys give us than I do the stats. So-so starts do not bother me as much as so-so reports

Adam (Ohio): For ROS would you drop any of the following guys for Gausman? Maholm, Cashner, Tehran, Garza

Jason Collette: in a reset league? None of them. In a keeper league? Maholm

tom (here): Gausman a pickup even in 10-tm? Drop cashner type for him?

Jason Collette: Nope, take the known over the unknown

Tom (Boston): If the Dodgers fire Mattingly the new manager has to make Kenley the closer ROS right? Over/under 20 saves for Jansen. Thanks.

Jason Collette: You'd like to think so. If Jansen got the job right now, 20 saves is definitely attainable.

Kyle (Compton): How much longer do you think Matt Kemp will be recovering from this shoulder surgery? Will his power be back at all this season, or is he worth trading for someone like Jay Bruce?

Jason Collette: another 6 weeks or so. That front shoulder for hitters is huge and they need it to get their power. BJ Upton suffered from it in 2009, Luke Scott did last year, and Bagwell years before that. I'd deal him for Bruce and let someone else suffer through the frustration.

Tom (Boston): Have your received any scouting reports on Billy Hamilton this year? Starting to hit a little, but wondering if you've heard he looks overwhelmed by better pitching. Still hoping he can be a .320 OBP guy or higher to earn PT to steal some bases for me next year and beyond. Thanks

Jason Collette: I haven't, not sure if the scouting team has written him up in the ten pack recently. I haven't lost any faith in him and think he's going to eventually be a 1st round fantasy pick in the coming years.

One Flap Down (Leonardsville): Who would win in a fight, Gausman or God?

Jason Collette: God would schedule it for the 7th day, so he can say he needs to rest rather than take on Gausman.

Joe (Seattle): Would you trade Tulowitzki in a package for Stanton if you are playing this year? The owner in my dynasty league is looking to sell Stanton and I'm on the fence about it since I am in contention.

Jason Collette: Yes, I can support that. In other news, Fernando Rodney is still bad

davelamb (alameda): 14 team mixed redraft league. Time to cut bait on Konerko? Moreland, Alonso, or Konerko ROS?

Jason Collette: I'd rather have Moreland by a considerable margin

mike (LA): Assembled a staff of strasburg, Cain, Bumgarner, Shields, Dickey, Cashner in 10-tm with K/9, IP and QS instead of wins. 200 gs limit. Stick with it or keep tweaking?

Jason Collette: Stay the course

Derek (Kansas City): Should I give up on Mike Moustakas? Or will he rebound in your opinion?

Jason Collette: I do not like what I see from him. If you can find a believer, feel free to move

Steve (Clearwater, FL): Obvious question at this very moment: Any chance Maddon finally moves Rodney out of the closer role? Peralta has been much more consistent, and even McGee is showing signs of coming around.

Jason Collette: He has shown a lot of leash to guys in the past, even when they've done worse than this. I think his fear is he goes to Peralta for saves, who is going to get the ball there? Sure, McGee looks better of late but nobody else is very reliable at the moment.

Joe (Seattle): Who would get the saves if Rodney continues to still be bad? Is it Peralta?

Jason Collette: I wouldn't mind giving Gomes a shot back there. He has swing and miss stuff. Peralta is too valuable as a guy to use in 7, 8, or 9

Kyle (Denver): Other than Rodney are there any other closers who have struggled you would specifically avoid? Johnson, Chapman, and Soriano have all blown their fair share of saves.

Jason Collette: The closer market isn't as such where any one can be avoided. I traded for Jose Veras 3 weeks ago and have enjoyed what he's been able to do. Brandon League - that's avoidable.

Joe (Seattle): Favorite player to watch?

Jason Collette: Nick Swisher. I've always been a huge fan

sparky29 (Tempe): Is Corbin for real? Who does he compare most to you from the past? John Tudor?

Jason Collette: 2 HRs in 62 innings is real. I like him a lot. Don't really know who to comp him to just yet

Joe (Seattle): Also, could you expand on why you would rather have Bogaerts over Myers?

Jason Collette: Ballpark. Tropicana Field is a bad offensive park while Fenway is a very good one.

Tom (Boston): Yasmani Grandal is tough to predict with the steroids issue, but do you think he's a 15-20 HR kinda guy (over full season) going forward? .280 BA or so? Thanks

Jason Collette: The fence coming in helps....he's not hitting 15+ home runs ROS though. 280 is possible.

Tom (Boston): In a 12 tm NL only and desperate for saves(got Kenley and Fuji, but that's it). Got Waino, J Zim, Shark, Minor, Jose Fernandez and D Hudson and Leubke coming back. Ok to deal Minor for Romo?

Jason Collette: I can do that trade

Tom (Boston): Any insight into the Dodgers talking about trading Ethier and promoting Puig? It doesn't seem all that feasible to me, but wondering if you think it's a possibility, thanks.

Jason Collette: None. Only what was rumored on the Twitterverse.

Joe (Seattle): Predict the first five draft picks this year?

Jason Collette: I don't follow the draft, sorry

Tom (Boston): Another guy really wants my Minor $11 and Gregory Polanco who would be $10 when activated for 3 yrs. Is Hart $29, Grandal $5 and McCarthy (non-keeper) enough of a return w/ me also adding in my 1st rd pick in yearly prospect draft? Or should I stick to trying to get Romo $11. Needs are saves and power.

Jason Collette: If you need power, trading for a guy that isn't close to returning and another one shaking off rust will not help

Scott (LA): Seems like everyone was praising Dee Gordon's new patience at the plate last week. But how long will they stick with the recent string of 0-fers with a walk thrown in every now and then not to mention erratic defense?

Jason Collette: He is who we thought he was. It's not like they have any other options at this point though.

Dave (NY): Who do you think saves more for the Cubs ROS Gregg or Fuji?

Jason Collette: Gregg, to inflate his value so he can be traded.

Matt (work): The player with the biggest discrepancy between real MLB value and fantasy value is _______?

Jason Collette: Brendan Ryan

dan11995 (ATL): How likely is Jason Heyward to outperform Justin Upton ROS?

Jason Collette: slightly unlikely

Bodhizefa (NC): Any thoughts on Nick Franklin's upside?

Jason Collette: One of my favorite interviews over the years. Super kid, high energy, above average fantasy middle infielder when it is all said and done.

Bodhizefa (Greensboro, NC): What order do you put these guys in for the rest of the year: Votto, Fielder, Goldschmidt, and Rizzo

Jason Collette: Flip the first two. Fielder is a monster this year and having Jackson, Hunter, and Miggy in front of him is only going to help.

Bodhizefa (Greensboro, NC): Is Cody Allen the best arm in the Cleveland pen at this point?

Jason Collette: of course he is, he went to the University of Central Florida for a year before transferring to High Point. Seriously, I like him.

Dave (NY): Most fantasy experts have said they don't see 30HR power ever coming from Freddie Freeman. Since he hit 20 a couple a years in a row in his early 20's this stance has always surprised me. Obviously he's not getting there this year, but can you see him being an eventual seasonal threat for 30 HR's? Thanks

Jason Collette: Yes, in a year that he doesn't start off as slowly as he has in this one. The injury didn't help.

Bodhizefa (Greensboro, NC): Nolan Arenado's running a good LD% now, but with little to show in the way of BABIP. When all is said and done with normalization, what kind of slash line do you see Nolan Arenado putting up for the rest of the year?

Jason Collette: .270/.330/.480

Ken (Boxscore Hungry Freaks): Hey bud, when you gonna throw in the towel and trade me David Price in Boxscore?

Jason Collette: Nobody has asked for him yet...you're the first!

Bodhizefa (Greensboro, NC): Who are your top 5 most underrated fantasy players?

Jason Collette: off the top of my head: Aoki, Cobb, Iwakuma, Juan Pierre, Rajai Davis

Tom (Boston): Jessie Winker and Josh Bell are off to good seasons in A ball. Both likely top 100 prospect guys next year?

Jason Collette: That's a better question for Parks & the boys

Joe (Seattle): Does Ryan Madson come back this year and get the closing job?

Jason Collette: He had a setback today and won't resume throwing for another week and will see the Dr. I put the odds at him pitching in 2013 at 60%.

Jason Collette: It's been fun but my time is up!

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