Portrait of Chris Paddack

Chris Paddack P  

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2019 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 23)
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Birth Date1-8-1996
Height6' 4"
Weight195 lbs
Age24 years, 10 months, 23 days
WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA..
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shownClick to hide.
2019 SDN MLB 26 26 140.7 9 7 0 107 31 153 23 94 6.8 2.0 1.5 9.8 41% .237 0.98 3.90 3.33 91 3.18 65.2 4.0

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
2015 MRL Rk GCL 11 7 45.3 4 3 0 37 7 39 1 93 7.3 1.4 0.2 7.7 0% .273 0.97 2.39 2.18 85 3.00 65.7
2016 FTW A MID 3 3 14.0 0 0 0 11 3 23 0 100 7.1 1.9 0.0 14.8 45% .379 1.00 0.83 0.64 55 2.56 56.5
2016 GRB A SAL 6 6 28.3 2 0 0 9 2 48 2 103 2.9 0.6 0.6 15.2 51% .163 0.39 1.45 0.95 33 1.30 28.7
2018 LEL A+ CAL 10 10 52.3 4 1 0 43 4 83 3 96 7.4 0.7 0.5 14.3 47% .370 0.90 1.78 2.24 55 2.22 47.0
2018 SAN AA TEX 7 7 37.7 3 2 0 23 4 37 1 99 5.5 1.0 0.2 8.8 45% .239 0.72 2.30 1.91 69 2.09 44.2
2019 SDN MLB NL 26 26 140.7 9 7 0 107 31 153 23 94 6.8 2.0 1.5 9.8 41% .237 0.98 3.90 3.33 91 3.18 65.2

Plate Discipline

YEAR Pits Zone% Swing% Contact% Z-Swing% O-Swing% Z-Contact% O-Contact% SwStr%
2019 2279 0.5274 0.5186 0.7504 0.6631 0.3575 0.8105 0.6260 0.2496

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation


Year Team Salary
2020 SDN $588,500
2019 SDN $555,000
1 yrPrevious$555,000
2 yrPvs + Cur$1,143,500
2 yrTotal$1,143,500


Service TimeAgentContract Status
1 y 0 d1 year/$588,500 (2020)

  • 1 year/$588,500 (2020). Re-signed by San Diego 3/20.
  • 1 year/$555,000 (2019). Contract selected by San Diego 3/19.
  • Acquired by San Diego in trade from Miami 6/30/16.
  • Drafted by Miami 2015 (8-236) (Cedar Park HS, Texas). $400,000 signing bonus ($173,100 slot).

2019 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET

90o 0 5.7 0 16 16 79.3 52 17 96 7 .249 0.87 2.16 2.26 7.9 0.9
80o 0 5.6 0 14 14 71.7 52 17 86 7 .267 0.96 2.54 2.66 4.1 0.4
70o 0 5.4 0 13 13 66.3 51 17 80 7 .281 1.03 2.82 2.96 1.6 0.2
60o 0 5.3 0 12 12 61.9 50 17 75 7 .292 1.09 3.06 3.22 -0.2 0.0
50o 0 5.2 0 11 11 57.8 49 17 70 7 .303 1.14 3.29 3.46 -1.6 -0.2
40o 0 5 0 11 11 53.8 48 16 65 7 .313 1.20 3.53 3.71 -2.9 -0.3
30o 0 4.8 0 10 10 49.7 47 16 60 6 .324 1.27 3.78 3.98 -4.1 -0.4
20o 0 4.6 0 9 9 45.0 45 15 54 6 .338 1.35 4.09 4.3 -5.3 -0.6
10o 0 4.2 0 8 8 38.7 42 14 47 6 .356 1.46 4.53 4.76 -6.4 -0.7
Weighted Mean05.10111157.04816696.2991.133.253.42-1.4-0.1

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BP Annual Player Comments

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BP Articles

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BP Chats

2020-09-23 13:00:00 (link to chat)Chris Paddack has had a disappointing year. Nice #2 starter or less than that?
(Jim mcintyre from Cincy)
I'll take the under. I like him but he seems more 3ish to me. He'll look better at times, certainly but I'm not convinced the curve is where it needs to be and he's also taken a step back with the fastball spin efficiency. (Craig Goldstein)
2020-01-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)Do you have the same type of expectations for Zac Gallen this year that so many seem to have? Could be have a Chris Paddack type season?
(Craig from Chicago)
Hell yes I do. I'm a Gallen Guy. (Craig Goldstein)
2019-11-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)How many innings do you realistically see Big Nate pitching in AAA before we see him in the Show? I am hopeful the Jays do like what the Padres did with Chris Paddack on opening day.
(mattyjames1 from Regina)
That's uh asking a lot of Mark Shapiro. Pearson obviously ready on raw stuff, but honestly he could use a few months on a regular starter's routine in AAA given his injuries/load management so far as a pro. The fact that it would coincide with the Super 2 safe harbor date isn't mere coincidence, but let's say it would be less egregious service time manipulation as fas as that goes. (Toronto Blue Jays Top 10 Chat)
2019-10-04 14:15:00 (link to chat)How reckless would it be to trade Chris Paddack for Jo Adell in a dynasty format? What do you see as fair value in terms of major league talent for a prospect like Adell?
(NGBags11 from Upstate)
Craig will tell you to always trade the arm for the bat. Paddack has significant major league success already, but if he's *only* this good (and given the durability risks) I'd go for it. I suspect Adell is going to check in again as the second best prospect in baseball and he's a close-to-ready bat. There aren't many arms with <2 years of high end major league performance I wouldn't deal for him. (Jeffrey Paternostro)
2019-08-23 15:30:00 (link to chat)In a points H2H dynasty league would you rather have Jack Flaherty or Chris Paddack?
(Cole from Boston)
I think I'd go with Flaherty, but legitimately might answer differently next week. Tough call. (Craig Goldstein)
2019-08-21 13:00:00 (link to chat)Dustin May vs. Chris Paddack for career? Paddack has had TJ but May hasn't had any injuries yet (right?). Who's career would you rather have?
(The Colonel from Pasadena, CA)
Paddack. May still has a bit left in the tank, I think, but I think Paddack has a better chance to miss bats going forward. May also might struggle with pretty big platoon splits (lefties currently hitting .370 off him in a small sample) unless his breaking ball is more consistent. (JP Breen)
2019-08-21 13:00:00 (link to chat)Is Chris Paddack becoming what we originally thought he was or just adjusting to this new higher workload.
(Eric the Red from San Diego)
I still love Paddack. Even in his down second half, he's still missing bats, posting good WHIP ratios, and doesn't have a platoon split at all. The home runs are a problem, yeah, but every pitcher is going to go through stretches where that's an issue in this run environment. Plus, Paddack has a beneficial home park. I'm still very in on Paddack. (JP Breen)
2019-06-21 15:00:00 (link to chat)Real-life value, not fantasy, how would you rank the following over the next five years: Luis Castillo, Chris Paddack, Yusei Kikuchi, Mike Foltynewicz, Jake Odorizzi.
(bg from SEA)
Castillo and Paddack in their own tier, but interesting that both are dominating with basically two pitches. Then probably Folty, and uhhhh tough to decide between the bottom two. I still think Kikuchi stabilizes into a solid #3-type, and Odorizzi has been riding a hell of a lot of HR luck for a fly-ball pitcher. (Jon Hegglund)
2019-06-10 20:00:00 (link to chat)In my dynasty league, I could use a long-term CF as I'm currently deploying Harper in the 8 spot and next year I can probably deploy Gallo there and Harper back to RF. But with the dearth of LF options, I need Gallo there. Starling Marte is available in my 20-team dynasty (his owner has Trout). I have plenty of young pitching )Ian Anderson, Jesus Luzardo, Alex Reyes, Dustin May, Chris Paddack), and some more seasoned pitching (Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer). If I offered Luzardo, you think that's a fair offer to fill my OF?
(Mike from Milwaukee)
I feel like most Luzardo owners would think this is too rich and most Marte owners would think this isn't rich enough, which means it's probably about right. You can't trust Marte to play in more than 120 games and he's on the wrong side of 30, but Luzardo is a pitcher with arm injuries. Risks abound. (Ben Carsley)
2019-05-06 23:45:00 (link to chat)Who wins the battle tonight between Peter Alonso and Chris Paddack? Who wins NLROY?
(randplaty from Hayward)
When in doubt, bet on the electric hurler with the dope changeup. Or the guy who's whiffed you twice with 97s. Or the guy who shuts out ya squad, Queens.

This song is tantric. You keep waiting for that beat to's still wicked...and...yeah still wicked...and... (Wilson Karaman)
2019-05-24 15:00:00 (link to chat)My love of Chris Paddack grows by the minute, what do you think the odds of MLB hitters figuring him out? Or is he really just as good as he seems so far.
(Donald M from Portland, OR)
Still would love for him to have a legitimate third pitch, but yes, he is the Real Deal (tm). As with just about any rookie SP, I would expect a rough patch or two over the summer, but he's probably your Opening Day starter for the next half-decade. Congrats, you must feel very proud. (Jon Hegglund)
2019-04-10 21:00:00 (link to chat)What's the best case scenario for Jose Quintana? I have been burned by him and Yu. However, each year, I draft Quintana later in hopes I finally can recoup previous year's losses. This year I chose him over Chris Paddack thinking for 2019 it was the right decision.
(Vic from Baltimore)
Got a couple of Jose Quintana-related questions here. I think the most likely scenario for him this year is a return to 2017-ish levels. That's still probably a 4.00 ERA or so, but with a strikeout rate that's a little more commensurate with his late White Sox days. It will be interesting to see if he leans on his curveball any more in the coming games/years. He's fastball heavy (with both a four-seam and a sinker), without crazy loud stuff, and that just isn't a spectacular profile these days unless there's something to play off of it. His curve has good tunneling numbers with his four-seam. Probably needs to move toward that to get more whiffs and fulfill more of what the Cubs wanted when they traded for him. (Zach Crizer)
2019-04-10 21:00:00 (link to chat)with the emergence of top rookies such as Jimenez, Alonso, lowe etc who else do you expect to make the jump next. thanks
(easterbrook from ontario canada)
If you mean someone already in the majors, I'm all about Victor Robles. I think he'll eventually move up into a more prominent role in the Nats lineup and keep showing off a pretty absurd power/speed combo with great defense in center. I'm also in the tank for Chris Paddack, the Padres rookie starter.

In terms of players who haven't debuted: Vlad Jr. (duh). Beyond him, I could see Austin Riley's power playing pretty quickly if an opportunity were to arise in Atlanta. (Zach Crizer)
2019-03-14 15:00:00 (link to chat)How excited are you for Chris Paddack? What's a realistic ceiling assuming the breaking ball doesn't develop further? Also, how hard is it to develop an effective breaking pitch, and what are the parts of that process that are intrinsic vs those that are learnable/teachable?
(jgaztambide from Louisville)
As already stated earlier in this Baseball Prospectus Chat I am very excited about the Padres this year, and thus very excited for Chris Paddack. San Diego should be a huge baseball town, and is easily the best city in California.

That said, the development of an effective breaking pitch is a fun insight into the inner guts of the game. The short answer to your question, and the one that will sound like a cop out but is the truth: The process is as unique as the pitcher in question. Some pitchers learn pitches from a conversation with a teammate and a few months practice (a la Eddie Guardado teaching JJ Putz his death splitter while teammates in Seattle). For others, an extreme case being Trevor Bauer, pitch refinement and advancement is a science and data-specific process that involves hours and hours looking at numbers and slow motion video. While current trends are definitely going towards the latter model, baseball is a human sport, and that means the former will always be at least a sizable part of the equation. (Nathan Bishop)
2019-03-15 16:00:00 (link to chat)How excited should I be over Matt Strahm?
(Jim from Third barstool in Chief O'Neill's)
As excited as you are (and you should be excited), I don't think it could be half as excited as the fantasy community. Between him and Chris Paddack, those Padres hurlers are soaring up draft boards. (Mark Barry)
2019-03-04 16:00:00 (link to chat)What are you thoughts on Chris Paddack? He seems to have a ton of helium at this moment and quite frankly he looks incredibly polished.
(Scary Gary from Leemont )
It's well earned. The changeup is a difference maker. He could be in San Diego by the end of the season, though it's more likely that he's part of a huge push by that system in 2019. (Scott Delp)
2019-02-18 16:00:00 (link to chat)First Year Player Draft, I have the first pick - All 2018 draftees and J2 guys, also noticed Paddock is available. Who do you take?
(Gary Mack from In the back)
Chris Paddack may just edge out Mize for me in the SP market. For hitters, Madrigal an obvious choice, and I like Bohm a lot too if you can stomach a lower average. If I have to choose one, Paddack if you're risk tolerant, otherwise Mize for safer floor. (Kevin Jebens)
2019-02-04 16:00:00 (link to chat)Is Chris Paddack destined for mediocrity due to his lack of a quality breaking ball? Hard to see him beating major league RHH with only FB/CHG
(Yonny or Laurel from TB)
Thanks Laurel. I still see some development coming from him and would like to see a full season post-Tommy John. (Mike Gianella)
2019-01-25 16:00:00 (link to chat)With the early stages of a 3rd pitch (curveball) in the works, is it reasonable to envision Chris Paddack as a potential front line starter for SD? Also over/under on the the Giants being mired in mediocrity for the next 5 years?
(Donald Munson from Portland, OR)
Well, you supplied all the hedge words--"early stages", "in the works", "reasonable to envision," "potential"--so I'll say YES, absolutely. In reality, I'd probably have him as an SP2/3 eventually, but one with plenty of upside. As far as the Giants, you know how much it pains me to acknowledge that they're gonna be looking up at the Dodgers and the Padres for the next several years, but I'll take the under, just slightly. I know the Pomeranz move is but one small signing, but it signals that the Zaidi MO will not be full teardown. I think with some smart drafts the Giants will be relevant again in 2022. (Jon Hegglund)
2018-12-06 20:00:00 (link to chat)Is Chris Paddack just Michael Wacha 2.0 or will he be more than just a fastball-changeup-command guy?
(Mr. Fister from Arlington)
Michael Wacha was an amazing talent before the injuries. If Chris Paddack ever has Michael Wacha's peak he'll have done real well for himself. (Jarrett Seidler)
2018-09-10 14:00:00 (link to chat)I traded away Chris Paddack for Trevor Cahill to go for it this year. I was eliminated in round 1 of my playoffs and Cahill has done nothing for weeks. How many years of the rest of my life will I regret this? Im in my early 30s right now.
(Andrew from MD)
As many years as it takes you to win another title. 50 years from now, you'll be talking about the Curse of the Cahill Trade. (Darius Austin)
2018-09-18 19:00:00 (link to chat)Hi Mike, in a 16 Team Dynasty League I have one 4 year contract and two 3 year contracts left, who would you keep, Jo Adell, Drew Waters, Luis Urias, Chris Paddack. Who would you sign to the 4yr? Thanks
(Rich from New Jersey)
I'd drop Waters. Adell gets the 4-year. (Mike Gianella)
2018-06-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)Where do you think Chris Paddack would land in your top 100?
(Chansen8895 from San Jose )
He's on the long list for the Midseason 50 with a decent chance of making it. That would put him in the 50-75 range on the 101. Note that he would have made it two years ago if he would have stayed healthy. (Jeffrey Paternostro)
2017-09-18 23:00:00 (link to chat)Ignoring the TJ (difficult I know and it does hurt his probability) what were your thoughts on Chris Paddack’s stuff/control/command/future projection pre injury?
(Michael from San Diego)
:Siren Light: It's a Padres run! :Siren Light: Yeah, not for nothing, but reports we had on him from before the injury sounded an awful lot like what I just described in the Quantrill answer: 92-94 heat, excellent CH, developing breaker, physicality to evolve into quality command. He's an easy guy to forget about in that SD system since he was out all year, but he's yet *another* arm in this system with rotation potential if he comes back looking like he used to stuff-wise.

:Siren Light: American soul cover time! :Siren Light: (Wilson Karaman)
2017-01-31 19:00:00 (link to chat)Chris Paddack - what do you think his ultimate upside is? Is he a good dynasty target in a 350 man minors? With the injury, will be pitch at all next year?
(fightingmoose from Manitoba, Canada)
Who knows? He sort of came out of nowhere and was doing really crazy things in A ball before getting hurt. I would guess he might pitch in September this season, if at all. I'd probably snag him as a lotto ticket in a league that big. (Mark Barry)
2016-08-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)What prospects are notable that are left in Class A Greensboro? Seems like the team deflated after the Naylor and Seymour trades.
(Marlinsmanfan from NC)
The team was gutted, but that's only because the Marlins got back plenty of talent for Chris Paddack, Naylor, Seymour, and others. I don't really know what the dog that goes and picks up the bats really has to live for anymore. Ah, competing at the big league level. Rarely do we think of its ramifications on the animals of Low-A.

I'd still tab Stone Garrett, Isael Soto, and Kyle Barrett as prospects of some notoriety at Greensboro. They're all longer-shot types of guys for various reasons. (Adam McInturff)
2016-07-22 13:00:00 (link to chat)What theoretical trade would you like to see happen, just for selfish scouting purposes? Like who would you not get a chance to see in person that you'd like to see move into an organization you could scout more easily?
(Steve from Philly)
I really like this question. I've been on the receiving end twice already this season, though, as Grant Jones and James Fisher have picked my pocket stealing Chris Paddack and Anderson Espinoza to the Midwest League. I would love to see Alex Reyes get traded to the Rays and pitch at Durham. Noting to that whatsoever, just a high-minors top prospect type that I don't see for the most part right now. (Adam McInturff)
2016-06-13 23:00:00 (link to chat)Chris Paddack now has 31K against 2BB in 18.1 innings so far this year. I know the changeup is his calling card, but have you heard anything on his fastball and slider? Seems to be fairly projectable based on his frame, but haven't been able to find much re: his velo, etc. How would he compare to Mike Soroka? Its obviously early, but do you see either of them as quick risers? What're the ceilings there?
(nkunke1 from BR)
Have a couple very good reports courtesy of our Sally guys on the prospect team: big strong kid has been 90-94 with the fastball, up from 88-91 when he was drafted, excellent change as you note, more room to fill out a prototypical frame. The curve is lagging still, apparently, but the tools are there between size and a solid 1-2 for a similar mid-rotation ceiling to Soroka. (Wilson Karaman)

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