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Chat: Toronto Blue Jays Top 10 Chat

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Wednesday November 13, 2019 1:00 PM ET chat session with Toronto Blue Jays Top 10 Chat.


This chat will be to discuss the Toronto Blue Jays Top 10 Prospects List, released today.

Toronto Blue Jays Top 10 Chat: Record cold here today, seems appropriate time to discuss our Canadian prospects.

someguynamedkenn (Central NJ): Thoughts on Alek Manoah? Specifically his command profile and third pitch? I saw a bit of him at WVU on ESPN and thought he screamed reliever, although the fastball slider combo is extremely good.

Toronto Blue Jays Top 10 Chat: Yeah, they are issues. The third pitch and average command requirement for starters can be a bit of managing to the press conference in the prospect world, and the sport is moving more towards throw your best stuff as much as possible. It's a durable frame and he was a bit of a workhorse, but the ACC (or whatever conference WVU is in now, I can barely keep track) ain't pro ball, so we will see if he can turn over a lineup multiple times. I think there will also come a point where you are just tempted to make him a quick-moving late-inning guy if he does scuffle, because the fastball/slider combo is that good.

noelman (Portland ): Does Anthony Kay have a Gio Gonzalez profile as his upside?

Toronto Blue Jays Top 10 Chat: Gio had a legit 7 curveball for most of his peak. So that's going to be the difference there I think.

CubbieBear (Chi-Town): What can you tell us about the intangibles that make up the prospect Nate Pearson? Work ethic, feel for the game, desire....I’ve read that he might have issues with his weigh. How realistic are those concerns?

Toronto Blue Jays Top 10 Chat: Eh, I mean this stuff matters, but it's also not my purview. The org's not going to kill a guy in printable format to a prospect writer (well, some will), and a scout talking about body language or whatever might have seen him right after he broke up with his girlfriend or something. Unless guys are wild outliers one way or the other I just worry about the on-field product, because ultimately it shows up there eventually anyway. As for Pearson's weight, I mean he's a big lad, but the frame is more sturdy than XXL. Obviously something that you monitor, but it's not an issue for me at this point. He's athletic enough to repeat 100+ mph fastballs and borderline elite sliders.

mattyjames1 (Regina): How many innings do you realistically see Big Nate pitching in AAA before we see him in the Show? I am hopeful the Jays do like what the Padres did with Chris Paddack on opening day.

Toronto Blue Jays Top 10 Chat: That's uh asking a lot of Mark Shapiro. Pearson obviously ready on raw stuff, but honestly he could use a few months on a regular starter's routine in AAA given his injuries/load management so far as a pro. The fact that it would coincide with the Super 2 safe harbor date isn't mere coincidence, but let's say it would be less egregious service time manipulation as fas as that goes.

Yuri (Israel): Hi Jeff, I will assume you just overlooked my comment from the Rays chat and didn't just ignore it. Anyway, I will also run that question back here. If BP personalities were Jays prospects, who would be who? For example, you'd be BP's Nate Pearson (unless I find that you ignored me) and Craig would be whoever the Jays worst prospect is.

Toronto Blue Jays Top 10 Chat: Craig to me is more of a LF-only profile.

Cito's Mustache (Frozen Tundra, Canada): Ben Carsley pointed out that the Jays have a strong track record developing Jordan Groshan's "type of talent" - could you expand on what they've done and maybe give an example? Thanks!

Toronto Blue Jays Top 10 Chat: Young high bonus bats? The issues with the Jays developing arms is well trodden ground at this point, and although they've obviously had elite talent to work with in some cases (Vladito), they do seem to be good at getting the best out of guys with unorthodox profiles. I don't know how much of that is leaving them alone or emphasizing the best aspects of the swing, but their bats have generally "gotten better" especially in the upper minors.

blackjay27 (New Brunswick): Besides Pearson who will graduate and make an impact in 2020 ?

Toronto Blue Jays Top 10 Chat: Kay is the obvious one, and although it's not the ideal profile for that park and division, I think he will be a useful guy to give 30 starts too given the incumbent options. Beyond that they have cycled most of their good upper minors prospects up, and you'll be waiting a year or so for the next group to get on the verge.

kevibear (Long Beach): was Chavez Young considered for this list at all? kind of a rough year in Hi-A but only a year removed from a 44 SB, 129 wRC+, performance as a 21 year old in A ball

Toronto Blue Jays Top 10 Chat: Not really. He was considered for the long list briefly. The steals are nice for fantasy but he's more on the Roemon Fields->Dwight Smith continuum.

Frank (Carlsbad, CA): What's the upside for someone like Alejandro Kirk. If he retains C eligibility, could he be a top 10 guy?

Toronto Blue Jays Top 10 Chat: Sure. He's a better catcher than Astudillo, but somehow a worse frame for the position. It's an odd profile and I doubt he has Astudillos positional flexibility so he's gonna be C or bust.

The Colonel (Pasadena, CA): Why did you guys get rid of the "Likely" after the OFP? I miss it. /sniff

Toronto Blue Jays Top 10 Chat: We wanted to simplify things and felt that likely wasn't adding much to the product, as it was generally one grade lower than the OFP for most prospects. I think it actually muddled what we were trying to describe, and gave an overly precise and narrow range of outcomes. I hope OFP is fairly clear, and variance allows us to describe the negative and positive risks in the profile with more nuance. Your mileage may vary and we are always open to feedback on this kind of stuff.

32JuanJuan23 (OvO): All Jordan all the time! I know everyone hates giving comps but...who would you comp Jordan Groshans to? Do you see him reaching AA next season?

Toronto Blue Jays Top 10 Chat: I do hate giving comps. I could see something around 2019 Corey Seager or so. I'd assume give the extended absence they will take it fairly slowly with him, maybe a bit of time back in the MWL and the bulk of the season in Dunedin. That would still allow him to start in Double-A in 2021 as a 21-year-old. Not impossible he hits the ground running and makes it there by late Summer though.

jfl19 (BJMB): Hey Guys, How much of a better prospect is Mackenzie Gore compared to Nate Pearson?

Toronto Blue Jays Top 10 Chat: Oh, I'm guessing it's like 10-15 spots on the 101 or thereabouts. Which roughly implies 60/40 we think Gore is the better prospect. Don't hold me to any of this math.

Toronto Blue Jays Top 10 Chat: That's a wrap on the AL East. We head out West with the Astros on Friday.

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