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Chat: Craig Goldstein

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Wednesday September 23, 2020 1:00 PM ET chat session with Craig Goldstein.


Craig Goldstein is the editor-in-chief of Baseball Prospectus.

Craig Goldstein: All I'm going to say is that if the doctor you're seeing punctures your lung, consider seeing another doctor.

The Colonel (Pasadena): Would you put Garrett Crochet in the group with Clarke Schmidt, Dane Dunning, Kris Bubic? 55 OFP?

Craig Goldstein: I don't have a specific OFP on him, but I think the ceiling on a guy who can regularly hit triple-digits and has a plus-plus slider is higher than that, if a usable changeup (or other third pitch) develops.

Quincy (Ames): Who are a couple guys you’re looking to ravound next year?

Craig Goldstein: Is it cloying to say Jo Adell? I don't think he's this bad even if I am legitimately concerned about his in-zone contact rate in general. Adell, Dahl, Victor Robles, Yoan Moncada just to name a few.

Biff hooper (Bayport): The marlins staff is looking pretty respectable . Do you see Max Meyer In the rotation or in the pen?is he in their plans from the get go next year?

Craig Goldstein: Agreed, they're pretty good! I think he ends up in the bullpen. I definitely think he could be ready from the jump (or to do what Crochet is doing) but I am skeptical they'll push him there for opening day.

jugdish (Faber): Jacob nottingham -statcast numbers interesting albeit in a small sample size . Anything to see here— or just move along?

Craig Goldstein: I'm not *all* that interested I guess? I liked Nottingham for a bit as a prospect (I liked basically every catcher prospect, I suppose), but I don't think there's much more than a backup mold here. The max exit velo is fine but nothing special. Average exit velo is 87ish. Idk. I'd probably move along.

Fred whitfield (Cleveland): Jedd gyorko breakout or sss fluke?

Craig Goldstein: Much more likely the latter than the former, though it's always gonna depend on your definition. He's a useful piece in the majors, imo, just not...this.

Booby Flay (Mesa): So you're telling me not only is cheesecake neither cheese, nor cake, but pie?

Craig Goldstein: There is cheese. Most cheesecakes use cream cheese in the filling (or ricotta or something), but yeah it's still a custard in terms of style and most definitely a pie.

ironcityguys (daBurgh): What do you make of Mitch Garver's 2020? Do you just wipe out his struggles in future projections, and see this as mostly injuries/small sample size?

Craig Goldstein: I think you can pretty safely set 2020 aside for the timebeing, but admittedly I've never been a big believer so some part of me wants to say this confirms my pre-existing bias. That's unfair, though, and I expect him to be a functional major leaguer, if not the star he looked like in 2019. I think 2018 is probably a fair expectation.

The Colonel (Pasadena): Next 5 years, would your prefer Cronenworth or Luis Garcia (Nats 2B)?

Craig Goldstein: This is a sidestep of the question but one thing you've got to look at with Garcia is his defense. I'm known not to be a big Cronenworth guy, but Garcia has to develop some semblance of power and not make so many defensive errors before you can reasonably claim him, right? I haven't watched a ton of Nationals baseball so I'm not sure what's driving those issues but as bad as fielding percentage is on this stuff, a .944 mark is tough to overcome.

ironcityguys (daBurgh): Do you see Daniel Robertson ever getting a chance again to be an every-day regular? Or do you see him as a potential above-average glove as a utility player?

Craig Goldstein: Is there a different Daniel Robertson I don't know about? I'm not sure why he'd get that chance other than a litany of injuries to the guys ahead of him. I see him as a backup and not someone I'm particularly desperate to have as one.

Nick (Middleburg): Do you think Ethan Small will break camp with the brewers and are you a believer?

Craig Goldstein: Definitely not and no, I'm not a believer. I know some people like him but everything I heard pre-draft was pretty pessimistic.

ironcityguys (daBurgh): How much do you like the following young arms? Ian Anderson, Randy Dobnak, Logan Webb, and Tony Gonsolin. Is there a drop off after Anderson? or Gonsolin? or much at all?

Craig Goldstein: A lot, indifferent, nah, and a fair amount. Yes, I think there's a significant drop off between Anderson and Gonsolin, and then a bigger on from Gonsolin to Dobnak and Webb.

I don't want to work (I just want to bang on the can all day): Hi Craig! Thanks for the chat. Do you have thoughts on Correa as a dynasty asset and where you would value him? I know Jesse and Bret have him top 50, and I would typically agree, but I am concerned. He has been healthy (as far as we know) and he has been well below average in DRC+ in over 200 PA, which isn't exactly a tiny sample. I know this year is strange, but I had always kind of felt like *if* he could stay healthy, he could be great -- 2020 is trying to prove me wrong. Where would you have him?

Craig Goldstein: Yeah, I mean it's not *just* DRC+, right. He just hasn't been good overall. I know what you mean re: health and quality but I do think that potential is still there. I probably would have him outside the Top 50, though.

spotted cow (Rockford): I'm in a h2h keeper championship and I need to know if I should start max fried today? Its qs, whip, era, sv hold, and k's. I have no qs yet... but I'm in a solid lead in k's and ratios. Any direction would ease my mind until he gets pulled. I am suspicious of him getting to 6ips too or would ATL likely want to stretch him for playoff prep

Craig Goldstein: I'll be frank in that I don't try to game the system too much with these things. I think Fried is essentially a must start if he's starting and I'd take the plunge.

cainer124 (Chicago): If the Clevinger trade never happened, would he start one of the 3 first round games? Who does he supplant?

Craig Goldstein: That's a fun counterfactual. I have to believe he'd start ahead of Plesac, Civale, or McKenzie. I love watching McKenzie pitch but his average fastball velocity has dipped from just under 95 to just under 91 in the span of six starts. That's got to be concerning for Cleveland and might make him more effective if he can air it out from the bullpen.

George altman (Chicago): Does Bryant get a qualifying offer? Adam Eaton get his option picked up.? What other guys can you see being on the outside looking on?

Craig Goldstein: Really interesting scenarios abound with team options and whether guys will get tendered contracts because of the hit that owners are taking on the season (it's not what they claim but that doesn't mean there isn't a hit). Bryant isn't a free agent, he's under control for one more year, so that answers that. Eaton is more complicated but I'd be very surprised if they didn't retain him at a pretty cheap price. The internal and external options are pretty bad unless you're splurging for George Springer.

The Colonel (Pasadena, CA): We've all read about the speed & defense of Cristian Pache, but the guesses on where the bat winds up are always vague. In a full, peak season, where do you see Pache's HRs, doubles and BA/OBP winding up?

Craig Goldstein: I am not really that kind of prognosticator, especially for isolating a peak season without context. I mean, Jacoby Ellsbury's peak season is wildly out of line with the rest of his career. Is there value in going out on a limb for that rather than giving you the expected contribution and acknowledging that variance will do what it may? There might be, but I struggle to see it.

I think Pache is generally an 8-12 HR type, with a .270s average and a .330 type OBP.

Hawk Harrelson (Chicago): MERCY! Garrett Crochet throws gas! What are his odds of remaining a starter? And what is his OFP if he remains a starter?

Craig Goldstein: I don't want to be in a Sale situation where everyone is assuming he ends up in the bullpen, but I do think it's hard for teams to get a look at what Crochet is providing now and then opt for a mid-rotation starter probable outcome down the line. It's a reasonable, perhaps smart thing to do! But it's difficult to do.

His ceiling, as noted earlier in the chat, is considerably higher than mid-rotation starter, but that's the *likelihood* with these things because you have to build in some risk. Health risks, developmental risks, etc. Perhaps it's easier to convert to a starter in a time when that all-important third pitch is being de-emphasized, but then you shift some of the risk to "how does an elbow hold up to so many fastballs/sliders" etc. Something to think about.

Bob prince (Pitysburgh): What’s the cardinals outfield for 2022?

Craig Goldstein: Carlson, O'Neill, Fowler, Bader 4th OF

Jim mcintyre (Cincy): Chris Paddack has had a disappointing year. Nice #2 starter or less than that?

Craig Goldstein: I'll take the under. I like him but he seems more 3ish to me. He'll look better at times, certainly but I'm not convinced the curve is where it needs to be and he's also taken a step back with the fastball spin efficiency.

ironcityguys (daBurgh): What do we know about the development of top 100 guys like Julio Rodriguez, Jasson Dominguez, Marco Luciano, and Nolan Gorman? What level would you expect each of them to start the season if we play a full 2021 ML/MiLB?

Craig Goldstein: Well, we don't *know* much. You can hear some things depending on who you talk to but it's all subject to being pumped or spun without much way of verifying whether it's true. One of the things I'm most intrigued about -- and it's something I mentioned to Jeffrey Paternostro on Five & Dive yesterday -- is where these guys get assigned coming out of these player development camps. Especially the lower level types, since it's unlikely we get the short-season leagues going forward.

I'll hazard these guesses: JRod: Triple-A, Dominguez: Extended Spring Luciano: Low-A, Gorman: Triple-A.

Jerry (Coleman): Will Myers isn’t running but everything else looks new and improved .heard he didn’t get along with Andy green. What to make of him next year?

Craig Goldstein: I'm struggling to believe he's a true .600+ slugging guy. I think maybe something like .280/.345/.510?

Craig Goldstein: Alright thanks for the good chat everyone. Loved these questions. Let's do it again next week amidst the never-ending playoffs. Jon Hegglund will be chatting with you all for your last weekend of fantasy queries.

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