Biographical

Portrait of Brady Aiken

Brady Aiken P  

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2018 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 21)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
94.7 7.43 1.93 81 4 10 0 -2.4
Birth Date8-16-1996
Height6' 4"
Weight205 lbs
Age21 years, 11 months, 4 days
BatsL
ThrowsL
2014
2015
2016
2017
-2.42018
+proj
WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA..
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR oppTAv PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP TAv WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA- WARP

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR oppTAv PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP TAv WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA-
2016 MHV A- 5 5 22.3 2 1 0 20 8 22 3 .266 101 8.1 3.2 1.2 8.9 43% .266 .280 1.25 4.25 4.43 94 2.95 71.4
2016 CLE Rk 9 8 24.0 0 4 0 32 13 35 1 .261 102 12.0 4.9 0.4 13.1 54% .449 .315 1.88 3.36 7.12 93 5.18 101.6
2017 LKC A 27 27 132.0 5 13 0 134 101 89 12 .267 105 9.1 6.9 0.8 6.1 51% .312 .291 1.78 5.76 4.77 134 8.17 180.6

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation

Compensation

Year Team Salary

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status

Details

2018 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA DRA VORP WARP
90o 7.3 8.3 0 26 26 117.2 118 65 99 27 .276 1.56 5.50 6.16 -6.2 -0.7
80o 6.4 8.4 0 24 24 109.2 118 65 92 27 .291 1.68 6.04 6.76 -12.5 -1.4
70o 5.7 8.4 0 23 23 103.6 118 65 88 27 .302 1.77 6.45 7.2 -16.5 -1.8
60o 5.1 8.4 0 22 22 98.9 118 65 84 27 .312 1.85 6.81 7.59 -19.7 -2.1
50o 4.6 8.4 0 21 21 94.6 118 65 80 27 .320 1.93 7.15 7.97 -22.5 -2.4
40o 4.1 8.4 0 20 20 90.5 118 64 76 27 .329 2.01 7.50 8.35 -25.1 -2.7
30o 3.6 8.4 0 19 19 86.1 117 64 73 27 .339 2.10 7.89 8.77 -27.6 -3.0
20o 3.1 8.4 0 18 18 81.1 116 64 69 27 .351 2.21 8.35 9.28 -30.2 -3.3
10o 2.3 8.3 0 17 17 74.4 114 63 63 26 .367 2.37 9.02 10 -33.2 -3.6
Weighted Mean4.78.40212194.3117648027.3181.917.107.91-21.9-2.4

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2018 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA DRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
2019222601313779051722144.3151.846.947.4910.66.08.52.5-1.2
2020233601414809352762244.3141.806.837.3810.45.88.52.5-1.1
2021242501111677943631944.3161.816.847.3910.65.78.42.5-1.0
2022252501111687942631944.3161.796.817.3510.55.68.42.5-0.9
2023262501111647540601844.3141.796.807.3410.55.68.42.5-0.9
2024272501111667640641844.3141.756.627.1510.35.48.72.4-0.8
2025282501111677639641844.3141.736.597.1210.35.38.62.4-0.8
2026292501111677739651844.3141.726.497.0110.35.28.72.4-0.7
2027302501111647437621744.3141.736.507.0210.45.28.72.4-0.7

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 92)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 97 Miguel Hernandez 2017 0.00 DNP
2 95 Austin Gomber 2015 0.00 DNP
3 94 Randy Perez 2015 0.00 DNP
4 94 Luis Noel 2009 0.00 DNP
5 94 Cam Bedrosian 2013 0.00 DNP
6 94 Daniel Lietz 2015 0.00 DNP
7 94 Juan Nova 2013 0.00 DNP
8 94 Helpi Reyes 2014 0.00 DNP
9 94 Dioscar Romero 2016 0.00 DNP
10 94 Nick Gardewine 2015 0.00 DNP
11 94 Julio Pinto 2017 0.00 DNP
12 94 Fernando Perez 2015 0.00 DNP
13 93 Mark Cohoon 2009 0.00 DNP
14 93 Gabriel Encinas 2013 0.00 DNP
15 93 Jake Sisco 2013 0.00 DNP
16 93 Oscar Armenta 2015 0.00 DNP
17 93 Robbie Dickey 2015 0.00 DNP
18 93 Sean Brady 2015 0.00 DNP
19 93 Enrique Burgos 2012 0.00 DNP
20 93 Gabriel Castellanos 2015 0.00 DNP
21 93 Stalyn Lopez 2013 0.00 DNP
22 93 Parker Bridwell 2013 0.00 DNP
23 93 Ty Buttrey 2014 0.00 DNP
24 92 Nick Pivetta 2014 0.00 DNP
25 92 Adrian De Horta 2016 0.00 DNP
26 92 Luis Heredia 2016 0.00 DNP
27 92 Jason Creasy 2013 0.00 DNP
28 92 Dewen Perez 2016 0.00 DNP
29 92 Hudson Boyd 2014 0.00 DNP
30 92 McKenzie Mills 2017 0.00 DNP
31 92 Jared Miller 2015 0.00 DNP
32 92 Trey Ball 2015 0.00 DNP
33 92 Luis Gamez 2017 0.00 DNP
34 92 Spencer Moran 2017 0.00 DNP
35 92 Brandon King 2012 0.00 DNP
36 92 Gregory Baez 2013 0.00 DNP
37 92 Ricardo Arevalo 2012 0.00 DNP
38 92 Gerson Bautista 2016 0.00 DNP
39 92 Ofreidy Gomez 2017 0.00 DNP
40 92 Pedro Encarnacion 2012 0.00 DNP
41 92 Michael Mader 2015 0.00 DNP
42 92 Edward Paredes 2008 0.00 DNP
43 91 Eric Smith 2010 0.00 DNP
44 91 Justin De Fratus 2009 0.00 DNP
45 91 Bryan Dobzanski 2017 0.00 DNP
46 91 Joel Payamps 2015 0.00 DNP
47 91 Gerardo Concepcion 2013 0.00 DNP
48 91 Joel Dicent 2013 0.00 DNP
49 91 R.J. Seidel 2009 0.00 DNP
50 91 Jefry Rodriguez 2015 0.00 DNP
51 91 Ricardo Batista 2013 0.00 DNP
52 91 Angel Baez 2012 0.00 DNP
53 91 Griffin Murphy 2012 0.00 DNP
54 91 Gerson Garabito 2017 0.00 DNP
55 91 Alec Grosser 2016 0.00 DNP
56 91 Colin Kleven 2012 0.00 DNP
57 91 Yimmi Brasoban 2015 0.00 DNP
58 91 Carson Sands 2016 0.00 DNP
59 91 Dustin Driver 2016 0.00 DNP
60 91 Thyago Vieira 2015 0.00 DNP
61 91 Jordan Holloway 2017 0.00 DNP
62 90 Ben Eckels 2015 0.00 DNP
63 90 Billy Roth 2016 0.00 DNP
64 90 Endrys Briceno 2013 0.00 DNP
65 90 Frank Encarnacion 2016 0.00 DNP
66 90 Emerson Martinez 2016 0.00 DNP
67 90 Madison Younginer 2012 0.00 DNP
68 90 Luis Martinez 2016 0.00 DNP
69 90 Danny Salazar 2011 0.00 DNP
70 90 Lane Ratliff 2016 0.00 DNP
71 90 Daniel Webb 2011 0.00 DNP
72 90 Mike Watt 2010 0.00 DNP
73 90 Jose Alejandro 2016 0.00 DNP
74 90 Skyler Crawford 2009 0.00 DNP
75 90 Gregory Infante 2009 0.00 DNP
76 90 Tyler Vail 2013 0.00 DNP
77 90 Yoryi Nuez 2014 0.00 DNP
78 90 Jack Duffey 2013 0.00 DNP
79 90 Trevor Shull 2012 0.00 DNP
80 90 Brandon Martinez 2012 0.00 DNP
81 90 Juan Urbina 2014 0.00 DNP
82 90 Amir Garrett 2013 0.00 DNP
83 90 Jairo Diaz 2012 0.00 DNP
84 90 Kieran Lovegrove 2016 0.00 DNP
85 90 Jose Valdivia 2013 0.00 DNP
86 90 Luis Mora 2016 0.00 DNP
87 90 Anderson Severino 2016 0.00 DNP
88 89 Nick Green 2016 0.00 DNP
89 89 Ambioris Hidalgo 2012 0.00 DNP
90 89 Josh Wall 2008 0.00 DNP
91 89 Victor De Leon 2013 0.00 DNP
92 89 Wilber Pena 2017 0.00 DNP
93 89 Starlyn Suriel 2015 0.00 DNP
94 89 Zachary Jemiola 2015 0.00 DNP
95 89 Alonzo Gonzalez 2013 0.00 DNP
96 89 Cameron Hill 2015 0.00 DNP
97 89 Jhonleider Salinas 2017 0.00 DNP
98 89 Edioglis Villasmil 2013 0.00 DNP
99 89 Tayler Scott 2013 0.00 DNP
100 89 Clay Holmes 2014 0.00 DNP

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv

Definition of multi-year splits

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2018 Due to publishing agreements, the 2018 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2018 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2017 For the first few years that Aiken was in baseball’s public consciousness, it was most often as a stand-in for a larger topic: the rise of Tommy John surgery, the changes to the draft bonus rules, a player’s relationship to his medical information. He’s still all of those things, but mostly he’s just a pitching prospect. And still a very good one, albeit one that struggled a bit as he continued recovering from TJS. He battled control problems throughout the year and didn’t look exactly like the pitcher he was when he dazzled as a high schooler, but he has plenty of time to adjust and move toward his ridiculously high ceiling.
2016 Say you're building a pitching prospect in MLB: The Show. You get a pool of points and can assign them to any number of skills and talents. You load up on fastball velocity, curveball movement, and an overall broad repertoire. You add points for intelligence and command, and even assign whatever's left to give your avatar a lean, tall pitcher's frame, with room to grow. And, heck, why not make him a lefty? There's just one last rating to fill in: "Elbow ligament." And, whoops, you're out of points. In what felt almost like self-fulfilling prophecy, the atypically sized UCL that scuttled negotiations between the Astros and Aiken tore during the pitcher's first appearance at the IMG Academy. He was, by that point, already something of a huge star: He broke the news of his injury on Derek Jeter's web site and had his Tommy John surgery performed by the Yankees' surgeon, David Altchek. But he was also a spectacularly unpredictable commodity, slipping from first overall in 2014 to 17th overall a year later. It was a gutsy move by the Indians, who will now undoubtedly act very conservatively bringing him along. If he comes back fully healthy—and roughly 80 percent of TJ patients do—he ought to once against have those plus ratings across the board, but now with a more typical ulnar collateral ligament holding it all together. That's a) a big if but b) a hell of a prospect.

BP Articles

Click here to see articles tagged with Brady Aiken

BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2017-09-29 12:00:00 (link to chat)In 2015 the Indians took 5 starters: Brady Aiken, Triston McKenzie, Juan Hillman, Matt Esparza and Brock Hartson. Triston looks like a future top 3 starter, but how would you rank the other 4? Is it possible Esparza or Hartson has passed Aiken and Hillman or am I overreacting to Aiken and Hillman's poor seasons given their age?
(matzabal from CO)
I mean maybe Aiken? But none of those three guys are really *prospects* at the moment. I will be one of the last guys to give up on Hillman, but it was not good this year. (Jeffrey Paternostro)
2017-08-28 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thoughts on Brady Aiken? what do you think he ends up as?
(Matzabal from Co)
Poor Brady Aiken. I think the TJ really did a number on him. My best guess is that the Indians try him as a starter again for at least another half year, but my guess is that he ends up transitioning to the bullpen. You'd hope his stuff plays up there. (Trevor Strunk)
2017-07-25 20:00:00 (link to chat)Brady Aiken have any hope? Numbers are really poor
(JJ M. from Cleveland )
The reports have been terrible as well. I am missing him this week when I see Lake County (I'm getting Juan Hillman instead), but word is his fastball is barely cracking 90. -Emmett (Emmett Rosenbaum & Nathan Graham)
2017-05-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)Time to give up on Brady Aiken, future ace?
(Mark from OH)
Oh yea. Check out our Indians Top 10 list. (George Bissell)
2016-06-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)Saw that Mike Matuella is expected to join low Class-A ball.. Is he any different from Brady Aiken, in the sense of "don't expect much right away", or does he end up getting promoted again before season's end?
(Ron from Texarkana)
I think they'll take their time. There is ZERO reason to rush him. Keep him nice and healthy. (Christopher Crawford)
2016-04-14 20:00:00 (link to chat)Who do you like more from a purely skills standpoint in dynasty, Brady Aiken or Jeff Hoffman? I lean Aiken even if he's further behind in his recovery.
(Alex from CA)
I lean Hoffman on pure skills, but (1) I'm not a scout and (2) Aiken isn't a Rockie pitcher. (Scooter Hotz)
2016-03-21 13:00:00 (link to chat)What does a Re-Draft of the 2014 MLB draft look like? (top 5)
(Eric from Redding)
Probably not that different--so many of those high school guys are still years away from the big leagues. Knowing what we know now about Brady Aiken's elbow, though, it'd probably shake up a little. I think Rodon would go first (which is what I said all along) and Conforto doesn't make it out of the top 5. The biggest breakout player since that draft, Schwarber, was a shock at No. 4 at the time anyway. (Michael Baumann)
2016-03-09 19:00:00 (link to chat)Which prospect pitcher do you like the most long term and why? Brady Aiken, Dillon Tate, Kolby Allard, or Carson Fulmer. Thanks.
(fightingmoose from MB, Canada)
I like the ceiling on Tate. Dude can dial it up and if the secondaries are there for him, I could see him being dominant. They all have a shot of being very good though. (Mike Gianella)
2016-03-09 19:00:00 (link to chat)Could you rank these pitchers for fantasy dynasty purposes. Jeff Hoffman, Brady Aiken, Dillon Tate, Aderson Espinoza, Francis Martes, Carson Fulmer, and Kolby Allard? Thanks.
(cracker73 from Florida)
Tate, Hoffman, Espinoza, Fullmer, Martes, Aiken, Allard (Mike Gianella)
2016-01-29 11:00:00 (link to chat)WHAT ABOUT BRADY AIKEN, CRAIG? WHAT ABOUT BRADY AIKEN?!? I know he's recovering from TJ, I just can't help but play the *IF* game with this one.
(D.J. from Boston)
There's no questioning Aiken's talent. Chris Crawford just ranked him second in the org in his Top 10, and I just picked him in the BP Fantasy Prospect Mock (this part is actually irrelevant). Suffice it to say, we're fans of Brady Aiken. He hasn't thrown a meaningful pitch since signing though, so this is more of a cautious approach. (Top 101 Chat with Craig Goldstein)
2016-01-29 11:00:00 (link to chat)Sorry - just realized this is specific to the top 101. Where's Brady Aiken?
(Truganini from CO)
Aiken was addressed earlier in the chat, but feel free to discuss other topics. The focus is on the 101, but hey, I'm here, you're here. Let's talk. (Top 101 Chat with Craig Goldstein)
2015-07-28 18:00:00 (link to chat)You seem to catch a lot of Low-A games. Which player at an even lower level would you want to see in person the most? Lara? Espinoza? Rodgers?
(Steve from Philadelphia)
Swanson, but he only kind of counts. I want to see a lot of the draftees coming up. In a perfect scenario my most highly prized short season guy would be Brady Aiken in terms of watchibility. (Mauricio Rubio)
2015-06-08 13:00:00 (link to chat)Is there any updates on Brady Aiken, and if he gets healthy, would you expect to see him back to his normal form around mid-late 2016?
(Ron from Texarkana)
I've heard very little on the medicals, but I have heard they haven't been disastrous, so he will go today. It sounds like he could go anywhere from 7 to Boston to 35 to the Dodgers, with some other landing spots being San Francisco and St. Louis, among others. (Christopher Crawford)
2015-06-10 14:00:00 (link to chat)What information about Brady Aiken's arm is known? I can't seem to find much of anything.
(Ron from Texarkana)
The medicals for Aiken were only released to front offices that asked for the medicals. It's been held extremely closely. No one knows much of anything. (J.P. Breen)
2015-03-06 14:00:00 (link to chat)Who's the top prospect in the 2015 draft?
(Doug from St. Louis)
I still think it's Brady Aiken. Three 60 pitches, potentially 60 command, left-handed. He's really good. (Christopher Crawford)
2015-01-21 15:00:00 (link to chat)What are your thoughts on Brady Aiken and his mechanic/potential going forward as a top pitching prospect in baseball?
(kylanje from Florida)
I'm not that big on Aiken's delivery (B- stability, C+ power), but his stuff is ridiculous - tho I do have questions about how well his loopy curve will translate to the highest level. I liked Kolek and Rodon better in last year's draft, personally. I think that his prospect status will be fine, because that curve will make minor league hitters look silly at the lower levels, but he could hit some speed bumps in his development (when he signs, that is). (Doug Thorburn)
2015-01-08 12:00:00 (link to chat)Where would Yoan Moncada and Brady Aiken rank if prospect eligible? Top 25? Top 10?
(kylanje from Florida)
This one is a good question for the prospect guys, but I'll take a stab at it. When our prospect team did the midseason top 50 prospects they had Aiken between 33 and 40, but that was before the UCL issue. So my guess is he's probably around 50 or so?

As for Moncada ... Jim Callis recently said he'd be right above the top pitchers from the last draft which means in the 10-20 range. With all the hype around him, he sounds like a top 5 guy, but he'll probably need to show he can hit pro pitching here in the US before he gets that kind of respect. (Jeff Long)
2015-01-12 13:00:00 (link to chat)I don't know much about MLB rules concerning unsigned draft picks. What is Brady Aiken's situation? Is he free to sign anywhere?
(RotoLando from Cloud City)
No, he isn't. He'll go back into the draft and be picked (again) this June. (Matthew Kory)
2014-07-22 15:00:00 (link to chat)What were your thoughts on Brady Aiken situation?
(Shawn from Couch)
Don't know enough about the medicals to comment, but I don't believe it was handled very well from a PR angle. Overall, it was really, really bad for baseball. (Jordan Gorosh)
2014-07-07 11:00:00 (link to chat)Jon Heyman is reporting that Brady Aiken has an elbow ligament issue and the Astros are only offering 5 M right now (almost 3 M below slot). Just how bad is this situation?
(Wayne from GA)
Its bad for both parties because the Astros can't afford to come out of that spot without talent, and they haven't had the best run lately (on the field) and in the press, so any negative development will start to compound and look worse. (Jason Parks on the Top 50)
2014-07-08 13:00:00 (link to chat)How do you see the Brady Aiken situation shaking out?
(GrinnellSteve from Grinnell)
In the end, even the reduced bonus the Astros are reportedly seeking will likely be a significant enough sum that it would be nearly foolish for Aiken to turn it down. I think you'll see a reduced bonus and Aiken signing at the deadline. (Mark Anderson)
2014-06-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)Brady Aiken sneak into your top 50?
(Greg from Boston)
We didn't rank any recent draftees. However, he's got a good shot this offseason. (Jordan Gorosh)
2014-06-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)Could Brady Aiken really be the best LHP prospect currently?
(Graham from Richmond, VA)
It's close, but Urias is a step above. Each are outstanding, but Urias is a bit more proven at this point. (Jordan Gorosh)
2014-06-05 14:00:00 (link to chat)Do you think the Astros passing on the higher upside guys like Gray and Bryant for Appel last year (and very early on looking like the wrong move), further influences them to take Brady Aiken at 1:1?
(Shawnykid23 from CT)
Hi all; I'm at my new locale and ready to go through the rest of the evening. Thanks for spending your draft time here at Baseball Prospectus!

I think the Astros have a process, are driven by that process, and will make a decision based upon that process. If the process points to Aiken, that's where they'll go, irrespective of the org's opinion on Bryant vs Gray vs Appel a year later. (Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris)
2014-06-03 14:00:00 (link to chat)Who is the best prospect you have laid your eyes on this year?
(Frank the Tank from Streaking through the quad)
Clearly, you don't follow me on Twitter. Brady Aiken. (Ron Shah)
2014-06-03 14:00:00 (link to chat)Where do you scout most of your games? What is your scout fetish? We know Professor loves toolsy Dominicans, and Jordan loves Ctrl/Cmd lefty's? What yours?
(Shawn from Cubicle)
Southern California. I've been going to a lot of amateur games this year, so I'm going to whichever game features the top talent. In regards to the minor leagues, I'm primarily at Rancho.

I love HS prep players I can dream on. Alex Jackson, Brady Aiken, and so on. (Ron Shah)
2014-06-03 14:00:00 (link to chat)Brady Aiken a top 5 prospect next year?
(Mitch from Connecticut)
No. It would be unprecedented in the prospect rankings world. (Ron Shah)
2014-06-03 14:00:00 (link to chat)Who are some prospects you like significantly more/less than others on the BP prospect team?
(Shawnykid23 from CT)
Well, I cover the same area as Chris Rodriguez, so it isn't hard to find where we disagree. I think I'm higher on Corey Seager and Hunter Renfroe than he is. Some people aren't as high on Brady Aiken as I am. (Ron Shah)
2014-06-03 14:00:00 (link to chat)In reading Doug Thorburn's mechanical breakdowns, I got to be thinking: How do you handle mechanics? For example: Doug really like Kolek for his strong stability and power mechanics. But having good mechanics probably means he is maximizing his stuff. But a guy like Brady Aiken didn't do to well, but that also suggests with mechanical tweaks, he could throw harder and more effectively. How do you view this? Would you rather have the guy who is being efficient now or the guy who could be potentially be better with mechanical tweaks?
(NightmareRec0n from Boston)
I'm not surprised that Kolek's mechanics are graded out well. It is a power delivery. You can work with Aiken's delivery, though. He's a good enough athlete to improve it. I'm more so looking at the arm action; stride; finish -- Aiken's all good there.

To better answer your question, it depends on the athleticism of the pitcher. Aiken has great feel for his delivery and is a fluid athlete. Someone like Wyatt Strahan is just a big guy with no feel of his delivery, and it is probably unfixable because of that and a lack of athleticism. This is when you hear guys can't throw downhill. Sometimes isn't a matter of will as much as what their body allows them to do, if that makes sense. (Ron Shah)
2014-06-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)How good can Brady Aiken be?
(Johnny from Houston)
You don't go 1.1 without massive potential (Paul Sporer)
2014-06-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)Brady Aiken's Potential? If he's available in a dynasty league with prospects am I an idiot for not picking him up?
(Mitch from ATL)
See the other Aiken question. I'm surprised he's still out there in a dynasty league. (Paul Sporer)


BP Roundtables

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