Portrait of Madison Bumgarner

Madison Bumgarner PGiants

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2019 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 29)
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Birth Date8-1-1989
Height6' 4"
Weight242 lbs
Age30 years, 8 months, 4 days
WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA..
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shownClick to hide.
2009 SFN MLB 4 1 10.0 0 0 0 8 3 10 2 89 7.2 2.7 1.8 9.0 0% .240 1.10 4.55 1.80 92 3.73 80.0 0.2
2010 SFN MLB 18 18 111.0 7 6 0 119 26 86 11 91 9.6 2.1 0.9 7.0 0% .314 1.31 3.67 3.00 96 3.76 85.0 2.0
2011 SFN MLB 33 33 204.7 13 13 0 202 46 191 12 90 8.9 2.0 0.5 8.4 0% .322 1.21 2.63 3.21 79 3.17 73.7 4.6
2012 SFN MLB 32 32 208.3 16 11 0 183 49 191 23 94 7.9 2.1 1.0 8.3 0% .276 1.11 3.54 3.37 87 3.07 70.5 5.1
2013 SFN MLB 31 31 201.3 13 9 0 146 62 199 15 99 6.5 2.8 0.7 8.9 0% .251 1.03 3.02 2.77 88 2.72 65.2 5.4
2014 SFN MLB 33 33 217.3 18 10 0 194 43 219 21 100 8.0 1.8 0.9 9.1 0% .296 1.09 3.02 2.98 85 2.70 66.1 5.7
2015 SFN MLB 32 32 218.3 18 9 0 181 39 234 21 89 7.5 1.6 0.9 9.6 0% .282 1.01 2.90 2.93 79 2.57 60.1 6.5
2016 SFN MLB 34 34 226.7 15 9 0 179 54 251 26 91 7.1 2.1 1.0 10.0 41% .267 1.03 3.28 2.74 77 2.70 59.7 6.9
2017 SFN MLB 17 17 111.0 4 9 0 101 20 101 17 88 8.2 1.6 1.4 8.2 42% .272 1.09 3.97 3.32 89 3.66 77.9 2.4
2018 SFN MLB 21 21 129.7 6 7 0 118 43 109 14 95 8.2 3.0 1.0 7.6 43% .274 1.24 3.95 3.26 103 4.47 99.8 1.3
2019 SFN MLB 34 34 207.7 9 9 0 191 43 203 30 93 8.3 1.9 1.3 8.8 37% .289 1.13 3.85 3.90 98 4.47 91.6 2.9

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
2009 SFN MLB NL 4 1 10.0 0 0 0 8 3 10 2 89 7.2 2.7 1.8 9.0 0% .240 1.10 4.55 1.80 92 3.73 80.0
2010 SFN MLB NL 18 18 111.0 7 6 0 119 26 86 11 91 9.6 2.1 0.9 7.0 0% .314 1.31 3.67 3.00 96 3.76 85.0
2011 SFN MLB NL 33 33 204.7 13 13 0 202 46 191 12 90 8.9 2.0 0.5 8.4 0% .322 1.21 2.63 3.21 79 3.17 73.7
2012 SFN MLB NL 32 32 208.3 16 11 0 183 49 191 23 94 7.9 2.1 1.0 8.3 0% .276 1.11 3.54 3.37 87 3.07 70.5
2013 SFN MLB NL 31 31 201.3 13 9 0 146 62 199 15 99 6.5 2.8 0.7 8.9 0% .251 1.03 3.02 2.77 88 2.72 65.2
2014 SFN MLB NL 33 33 217.3 18 10 0 194 43 219 21 100 8.0 1.8 0.9 9.1 0% .296 1.09 3.02 2.98 85 2.70 66.1
2015 SFN MLB NL 32 32 218.3 18 9 0 181 39 234 21 89 7.5 1.6 0.9 9.6 0% .282 1.01 2.90 2.93 79 2.57 60.1
2016 SFN MLB NL 34 34 226.7 15 9 0 179 54 251 26 91 7.1 2.1 1.0 10.0 41% .267 1.03 3.28 2.74 77 2.70 59.7
2017 SFN MLB NL 17 17 111.0 4 9 0 101 20 101 17 88 8.2 1.6 1.4 8.2 42% .272 1.09 3.97 3.32 89 3.66 77.9
2017 SJO A+ CAL 2 2 10.0 0 1 0 11 2 13 4 95 9.9 1.8 3.6 11.7 29% .292 1.30 7.12 8.10 105 4.24 90.3
2017 SAC AAA PCL 1 1 3.7 0 0 0 7 1 1 0 86 17.2 2.5 0.0 2.5 24% .412 2.18 4.81 9.82 110 8.84 188.1
2017 GIA Rk AZL 1 1 3.0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 96 0.0 3.0 0.0 6.0 43% .000 0.33 3.88 0.00 101 1.95 41.6
2018 SFN MLB NL 21 21 129.7 6 7 0 118 43 109 14 95 8.2 3.0 1.0 7.6 43% .274 1.24 3.95 3.26 103 4.47 99.8
2018 SJO A+ CAL 1 1 4.7 0 0 0 2 0 7 1 94 3.9 0.0 1.9 13.5 63% .143 0.43 4.18 1.93 69 2.11 44.7
2018 SAC AAA PCL 1 1 3.7 0 0 0 0 1 8 0 95 0.0 2.5 0.0 19.6 0% .000 0.27 0.19 0.00 36 1.14 24.1
2019 SFN MLB NL 34 34 207.7 9 9 0 191 43 203 30 93 8.3 1.9 1.3 8.8 37% .289 1.13 3.85 3.90 98 4.47 91.6

Plate Discipline

YEAR Pits Zone% Swing% Contact% Z-Swing% O-Swing% Z-Contact% O-Contact% SwStr%
2009 152 0.5329 0.4737 0.7917 0.6296 0.2958 0.8627 0.6190 0.2083
2010 1710 0.5632 0.4702 0.8246 0.6168 0.2811 0.8838 0.6571 0.1754
2011 3169 0.5371 0.4664 0.7767 0.6099 0.2999 0.8584 0.5841 0.2233
2012 3248 0.5216 0.4714 0.7845 0.6281 0.3005 0.8731 0.5824 0.2155
2013 3183 0.5124 0.4687 0.7393 0.6401 0.2887 0.8266 0.5357 0.2607
2014 3362 0.5211 0.4985 0.7554 0.6575 0.3255 0.8455 0.5573 0.2446
2015 3298 0.4779 0.4985 0.7287 0.6567 0.3537 0.8425 0.5353 0.2713
2016 3546 0.4715 0.4741 0.7377 0.6310 0.3340 0.8227 0.5942 0.2623
2017 1668 0.4790 0.5018 0.7814 0.6921 0.3268 0.8626 0.6232 0.2186
2018 2045 0.4885 0.4631 0.7825 0.6216 0.3117 0.8647 0.6258 0.2175
2019 3233 0.4899 0.5020 0.7517 0.6679 0.3426 0.8336 0.5982 0.2483

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation


Year Team Salary
2024 ARI $14,000,000
2023 ARI $23,000,000
2022 ARI $23,000,000
2021 ARI $19,000,000
2020 ARI $6,000,000
2019 SFN $12,000,000
2018 SFN $12,000,000
2017 SFN $11,700,000
2016 SFN $9,950,000
2015 SFN $6,950,000
2014 SFN $3,950,000
2013 SFN $950,000
2012 SFN $560,000
2011 SFN $450,000
9 yrPrevious$58,510,000
10 yrPvs + Cur$64,510,000
4 yrFuture$79,000,000
14 yrTotal$143,510,000


Service TimeAgentContract Status
9 y 127 dLegacy Agency5 years/$85M (2020-24)

  • 5 years/$85M (2020-24). Signed by Arizona as a free agent 12/17/19. 20:$6M, 21:$19M, 22:$23M, 23:$23M, 24:$14M. In 2021-23, $5M annually is deferred without interest, paid in $5M installments each Nov. 1, 2025-27. Limited no-trade protection: may block deals to 5 clubs. Perks: hotel suite on road, four premium tickets to each game.
  • 5 years/$35M (2013-17), plus 2018-19 club options. Signed extension with San Francisco 4/17/12. $1M signing bonus. 13:$0.75M, 14:$3.75M, 15:$6.75M, 16:$9.75M, 17:$11.5M. 18:$12M club option, $1.5M buyout. 19:$12M club option. 2018 option guaranteed with 200 IP in 2017 or 400 IP in 2016-17. Options increase to $14M with top 3 finish in Cy Young vote 2012-17 or $16M by winning Cy Young in 2012-17. Award bonuses, including $25,000 for All-Star selection. Limited no-trade protection (may block deals to eight clubs). San Francisco exercised 2019 option 10/29/18. Bumgarner's eight-club no-trade list for 2019: Atlanta, Boston, Chicago Cubs, Houston, Milwaukee, NY Yankees, Philadelphia, St. Louis.
  • 1 year/$0.56M (2012). Re-signed by San Francisco 3/9/12.
  • 1 year/$0.45M (2011). Renewed by San Francisco 3/11.
  • 1 year (2010). Re-signed by San Francisco 3/10.
  • 1 year (2009). Contract purchased by San Francisco 9/8/09.
  • Drafted by San Francisco 2007 (1-10) (South Caldwell HS, Hudson, N.C.). Signed 8/15/07, $2M signing bonus.

2019 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET

90o 0.7 0 0 1 1 17.6 14 4 16 2 .249 1.02 2.88 3.27 0.0 0.0
80o 0.7 0 0 1 1 13.5 11 3 12 1 .260 1.08 3.18 3.62 -0.3 0.0
70o 0.7 0 0 1 1 10.6 9 3 10 1 .268 1.12 3.41 3.87 -0.4 0.0
60o 0.7 0 0 1 1 8.2 7 2 7 1 .274 1.16 3.59 4.09 -0.6 -0.1
50o 0.6 0 0 1 1 6.0 5 2 5 1 .281 1.20 3.77 4.29 -0.7 -0.1
40o 0.6 0 0 1 1 3.8 4 1 3 0 .287 1.24 3.96 4.5 -0.8 -0.1
30o 0.6 0 0 1 1 1.5 1 0 1 0 .294 1.28 4.15 4.72 -1.0 -0.1
Weighted Mean0.600115.65251.2791.193.764.27-0.7-0.1

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BP Annual Player Comments

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BP Articles

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BP Chats

2020-03-18 13:00:00 (link to chat)Scoresheet Dynasty League: Madison Bumgarner for a Charmin 20-pack and a fifth of Tito's. Who says no?
(Jim from I think I'm in Chicago)
You _gotta_ go with the Charmin and Tito's. It's true, the Charmin bear commercials are confusing and disturbing, and that affects their value but at this point even if you're just planning on spinning off the TP and keeping the Tito's, you can probably get more than Bumgarner in a couple weeks for the 20-pack alone. (Craig Goldstein)
2019-10-30 16:00:00 (link to chat)You wake up. Your bedroom looks a little weird, but you chalk that up to grogginess and a late night watching The Bachelor. You walk over to the bathroom and splash some water on your face and look up into the mirror--Oh my god! You're Rick Hahn! What happened to the man who invented "Childish Bambino?" You drive into work and learn that, after arbitration raises, you have $50 million committed for 2020 and not much beyond that (Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez, basically). You also learn from quickly looking through some spreadsheets that you have been authorized to spend up to $125 million, or $75 million AAV in 2020, to improve the White Sox. What do you do?
(nschaef from NYC)
I'd go hard for either Cole or Strasburg, or both, and then maybe Ryu if you can't get both. I know they need offense there, too, but I think you can find useful pieces for what they need other places, and they have some pieces coming, too. Robert is on the way for CF, Madrigal for 2B. If you sign Rendon, you need to move Moncada and he finally flourished at the plate at 3B. That doesn't mean I have an issue signing Rendon, but their rotation outside of Giolito is a problem and I'd pour my resources into that because the division is available, in my opinion. I'd hit the top of the market and I'd go after depth. Maybe you like Wheeler over Ryu, that's fine. Maybe Madison Bumgarner is weirdly undervalued? Maybe you try and fix Julio Teheran who everyone seems to think is bad but is also always like okay as a 4? You can throw some money at a Corey Dickerson type for OF/DH for offense, too. I know there's risk in leaning on those prospects, but I'd mitigate that with solid depth pieces in the lineup more than high-end ones, which I'd save for the rotation. (Craig Goldstein)
2019-06-21 15:00:00 (link to chat)Thoughts on Wander Javier, what's his upside?
(Dusty from Colorado)
His upside is to be a member of the Giants within a week or two as part of a Madison Bumgarner package. If this happens, Dusty, I promise you I will give you no less than a hundred words on Wander Javier. (Jon Hegglund)
2019-06-05 21:00:00 (link to chat)I'd love to see you trade Madison Bumgarner to Wilson on the cheap.
(Not Wilson from Don't worry about it)
Is this really how we're doing trade negotiations now? I mean, I'm not against it because it props up the queue in my chat and makes me feel important. Also, no. (Mr. President Bret Sayre)
2019-04-10 21:00:00 (link to chat)If you had to pick four MLB players to fight your way out of a zombie-infested warehouse who you picking?
(The Yeehaw Agenda from The Wild West)
So one obvious answer is Yasiel Puig. Most likely to take on 7 zombies by himself, for sure.

Next up: Give me Aaron Judge because just the prospect of him entering a fray carries serious gravity.

Madison Bumgarner because if you told me he had done this before I wouldn't be THAT shocked.

And finally, Mookie Betts, because we have yet to see something he isn't good at. I don't know how that would manifest in a zombie warehouse. Maybe he would just distract them and dazzle them with some heretofore unknown talent until everyone escaped. (Zach Crizer)
2018-07-30 23:00:00 (link to chat)Wilson, help a brotha out. Forever keeper, 5x5 roto, who wins: Chris Sale for Madison Bumgarner and Blake Snell? Thanks in advance!
(DJosephD from Cranberry )
I love Snell, I don't expect the Rays to push him this year, I'm terrified of Bumgrarner and don't own him anywere. Chris Sale is...King of the Netherlands. He's a cold beer on a hot day. He is Vigo. He's your guy. (Wilson Karaman)
2017-05-15 17:00:00 (link to chat)In an old fashioned roto league -- 25-man rosters, 13-teams, no bench. 6x4 with pitching categories just being ERA/K/W/S. I only have two DL slots to use, and they are currently occupied by Zach Britton and Madison Bumgarner. I also have Taillon. Given that I cannot proceed shorthanded for multiple months, which of these three would you drop?
(nschaef from NYC)
Love the old fashioned Roto leagues. Hope it's not an only for your sake and your sanity.

I'd drop Taillon. Just have no idea when he'll be back. (Mike Gianella)
2016-07-05 19:00:00 (link to chat)Who is your dream home run derby roster? Current players.
(BC from Urbandale)
Madison Bumgarner, Noah Syndergaard, Bartolo Colon. (Kate Morrison)
2015-05-26 19:00:00 (link to chat)so i have seen you and that one guy from that one site (half-hartedly) discussing a Kershaw trade. what is (are) the biggest trade(s) that have gone down in a Tout or Labr league?
(jonraypyle from tx)
It's really hard to trade in expert leagues, in part because nobody wants to be seen as losing on a deal. I traded Hanley Ramirez in 2013 for two starting pitchers. Fred Zinkie of MLB is the big wheeler dealer in LABR, and he made a big deal this year where he traded Andrew McCutchen, Stephen Strasburg, Asdrubal Cabrera and R.A. Dickey for Michael Brantley and Madison Bumgarner. (Mike Gianella)
2015-04-16 17:00:00 (link to chat)Thoughts on Giants rotation and when/if we might see Yusmeiro Petit?
(wml2000 from NYC)
After Madison Bumgarner it looks really thin, though Jake Peavy and Tim Hudson could certainly surprise us. Chris Heston has shown some velocity improvement and could be better than we were expecting, but I still see him as a back end guy. Tim Lincecum's velo is really down and while the deception is better, I don't trust him much. Who knows when Matt Cain's coming back? I'd love to see Petit in the rotation, but it could be a while if Heston holds up. I'll guess June. (Mike Gianella)
2015-01-20 19:30:00 (link to chat)Are you hesitant about keeping Madison Bumgarner at all for next season because of how many innings he pitched this year?
(Tim from my couch)
Nope. I get that you can point to a guy like Verlander as an example of postseason workload perhaps impacting performance the next year, but I could just as easily point to Jon Lester, no? I'm not discounting MadBum at all. He's a monster, and all pitchers inevitably break to remind us of our hubris and insignificance. (Ben Carsley)
2015-02-16 11:00:00 (link to chat)is Madison Bumgarner a number 1 starter? Obviously he was otherworldly in 2014 postseason but I'm not sure he's ever been quite that otherwise.
(Ethan Spalding from Madison, wi)
I'm inclined to say yes. He's got the stuff, the command, the makeup, the results, the durability (four 200-inning seasons in a row), and so on. You could argue Bumgarner is overrated due to the postseason success-the talk about him being superior to Kershaw comes to mind-but I believe he's one of the top dozen or so starters. (R.J. Anderson)
2015-01-21 15:00:00 (link to chat)Doug- how worried are you about Madison Bumgarner's heavy workload from last year affecting this year's outcome?
(DanDaMan from Sea Cliff)
Such a workload increase naturally raises concerns about this year, and it is possible that the kinetic toll of 2014 will impact his 2015. That said, Bumgarner has a lot going for him, including one of the most efficient deliveries in the game. He was also throwing harder in October than any other point in the season, a double-edged sword that A) speaks to his great condition at the end of the season, while at the same time B) increases the kinetic toll of those additional pitches. (Doug Thorburn)
2014-11-18 13:00:00 (link to chat)A new rule has been made that no one who has won MVP or Cy Young before can win it again. Who are your 2015 MVPs and CYs?
(bigguy57 from Philly)
That's an interesting one, bigguy57. Off the top of my head, I'll say Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Abreu win MVP, and Madison Bumgarner and Chris Sale get the Cy Young. (Daniel Rathman)
2014-10-20 16:00:00 (link to chat)Madison Bumgarner is throwing 1 mph harder than he did in the regular season. His ERA forecast is presumably something like 3.10 generally. Armed with the new velocity knowledge, what would you forecast his ERA to be in his next couple starts? Is this what you mean when you say forecast ability for a series might approach 80 percent?
(Andrew from Warm Kitten)
A little bit lower, although exactly how much, I don't know off the top of my head. And yes, that's what I mean--if I knew for certain that he was going to throw a little harder/pitch a little better, I could incorporate that into my forecast. (Rob Arthur)
2014-09-29 14:00:00 (link to chat)You are a Giants fan if I recall correctly, how do you believe they will fare in the playoffs?
(Ron K. from Minneapolis)
I am. I think that having Madison Bumgarner toeing the rubber in the one-game playoff gives them a good shot to advance to the Division Series. However, not having Bumgarner early in that series spells an early exit, especially with the lineup struggling sans Pagan. I think they get swept by the Nationals in the Division Series. (Daniel Rathman)
2014-09-29 14:00:00 (link to chat)Hi Daniel! It's me, Sam. I have a question for you about the ephemerality of excitement. I think it's conceivable that you (or Chris Mosch) wrote about more baseball games this year than literally any other human being alive. Hundreds upon hundreds, and you brought all the meaning and excitement to us each morning, and it brought the season alive. Good job. Now... Are we going to remember *any* of this in 15 years? I mean, I submit that the average diehard baseball fan doesn't remember one thing about the 1999 regular season. Or, really, postseason. History compresses events, so we remember some achievements but assign them vaguely to an era or an epoch. It takes a truly special event (of which there is, I hypothesize, usually 0 to 2 per year) that we closely identify with a year. Otherwise, just into the pile. So, my question is: What are the 0 to 2 this year? What specific detail will we always remember and always associate with this year? Like last year was Puig in the pool. And *maybe* Harper running into the wall. And, since this is a one-way chat, just to get ahead of you: The answer is not Jordan Zimmermann's no-hitter. That's my whole point--it's never Jordan Zimmermann's no-hitter, no matter how sweaty our palms are while we're watching.
(Sam from Bay Area)
Hey Sam! This is another question I've let marinate in the queue so that I could think about my answer.

As a Giants fan, I don't think I'll forget Madison Bumgarner hitting two grand slams any time soon. At the risk of it being too obvious and some recency bias coming into play, Derek Jeter's walkoff single would be my other choice, if I'm limited to two. (Daniel Rathman)
2014-05-02 14:00:00 (link to chat)Are concerned with Madison Bumgarner at all?
(Shawnykid23 from CT)
Hi think that he'll be fine. Bummer's situation is actually a lot like his teammate Cain - velo is fine, baseline mechanics are solid, but his timing has been off a bit resulting in a lot more pitches that catch too much plate. Bumgarner is usually adept at avoiding the middle of the zone (#5 on the strike zone key pad) but lately he has allowed pitches to finish in the hitters' wheelhouse. Again like Cain, Bummer has a slow delivery that can take a bit longer to coordinate, but I expect that he will iron things out in short order.

On the jukebox: System of a Down, "Deer Dance" (Doug Thorburn)
2014-04-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)Would you address Madison Bumgarner's delivery please? It screams "future problems" to me, the way he goes so far back laterally, but I'm far from an expert.
(Chris from MO)
I love Bummer's delivery (he is one of the 5 straight A's from the SP Guide). He succeeds using the same template as the successful pitchers of 100 years ago, and I dig it. By "(going) far back laterally" I assume that you mean the big upper-body twist and long arm extension that are part of his torque, and I think that his method is far more efficient than most pitchers. He is a bit on the slow side with his momentum, but he more than makes up for it (in terms of extension) with his strong stride, excellent timing, and 80-grade posture. He also repeats that deep release point as well as any pitcher in the game.

Any pitcher could have "future problems," but Bumgarner is as low-risk as they come with respect to mechanics. His slider frequency could be a concern, though he utilizes the relatively-safe methodology of supination (as opposed to a wrist-twist) to throw the pitch, so it lessens the concern.

On the jukebox: Led Zeppelin, "Going to California" (Doug Thorburn)
2013-11-22 14:00:00 (link to chat)How does Michael Roth get such great extension on the mound? Is that natural or was it taught to him
(Alex from LA)
Roth has solid momentum throughout the delivery, and finishes with strong posture, but the most impressive part of his mechanics that contribute to his extension is that he continues the forward progression of his body after foot-strike. At the National Pitching Association we called it "Stack and Track" - a pitcher who maintains a stack upper-body (good posture) while tracking towards the target after foot strike can achieve great extension. It requires strong functional strength and good balance with flex in the front knee (as opposed to a stiff landing leg), allowing the center-of-mass to drift closer to the plate. Finally, Roth has a naturally late release - he has a closed stride, and the only way to reach full extension is to release the baseball at a later point in trunk rotation than the average pitcher.

Another pitcher who is great at this is Madison Bumgarner.

On the jukebox: Yardbirds, "Happenings Ten Years Ago" (Doug Thorburn)
2013-10-11 14:00:00 (link to chat)1. What is a "cut fastball"? How does it behave differently from other types of fastball? 2. Is "cutter" just another name for a cut fastball? If not, how does it behave differently? 3. From the name, I assume that a "12-to-6 curve" is one which breaks straight down, with little or no movement side to side. If that description is correct, how does it differ from a sinker?
(Rex Little from Big Bear CA)
A cut fastball is just another name for a cutter, though you will hear it more often when there is less break (and more velo) on the pitch. The difference between a four-seam fastball, a cutter, a slider, and a curveball (aside from the grip) is the degree of supination that the pitcher employs. This is why I often hand-wave the name of certain pitches as just semantics - one guy's slider is another's cutter (Madison Bumgarner says hi), and in the end they can call it whatever they want as long as it gets outs.

You are right that a "12 to 6" curve is one that has more vertical movement, and is often tied to a pitcher's functional arm slot.

On the jukebox: Alien Ant Farm, "Smooth Criminal" (Doug Thorburn)
2013-01-14 14:00:00 (link to chat)Thanks for the chat Ben! Could my boy Madison Bumgarner compete for the Cy Young Award somewhere down the line?
(Chris from San Francisco)
Maybe, but I'm a bit worried about the velocity loss at the end of the season. If it was just a mechanical flaw, sure, but if there was a hidden injury, uh-oh. Even if he's just a guy who gets tired at the end of the season, that might prevent him from meriting serious Cy Young consideration. So, yes, certainly not out of the question, but enough uncertainty about his stuff that I wouldn't project him to win one. (Ben Lindbergh)
2012-10-04 14:00:00 (link to chat)So this was a pretty serious year for the pitcher, no? What was your favorite dominant pitching performance from the year? And do you think next season will be similar? (not in # of no-hitters, mind you, but in the relative success of defense over offense)
(john from chicago)
We certainly saw a lot of remarkable pitching feats this year. I'm biased, as a Giants fan, but my two favorites were probably Matt Cain's perfect game on June 13 (which, by the way, I didn't see live because I was on a flight to Europe) and the duel between Madison Bumgarner and Clayton Kershaw on Aug. 20. Kris Medlen's outing against the Nationals a few weeks ago was also very fun to watch.

I don't think there are any obvious reasons to expect significant changes between 2012 and 2013, so I expect that we'll see a lot of the same things, especially as more and more teams adopt the aggressive defensive shifts pioneered by the Rays and Brewers. (Daniel Rathman)
2012-03-08 15:00:00 (link to chat)Is this the year that Matt Cain overtakes Tim Lincecum as the Giants ace in the rotation?
(Tim from San Francisco)
This is the year that Madison Bumgarner overtakes both of them. (Daniel Rathman)
2012-03-14 13:30:00 (link to chat)Fantasy question if you're so inclined: What's your view on closers? I have Kimbrel as a pretty cheap keeper (can keep 2 pitchers), but leaning towards setting him free in favor of Jordan Zimmerman and Madison Bumgarner who I have for next to nothing.
(Andy from Chicago)
I haven't played fantasy for a few years now, since I spend a dangerous amount of time on baseball as it is. But when I did play, I was always a "don't pay for saves" guy. Sometimes I tanked the category, and other times I monitored baseball news all day so I could grab the latest closer candidate from the waiver wire and piece together a staff with some saves. Either way, I wouldn't be the one drafting the typical high-priced closer. Kimbrel might be one worth keeping over a lot of starters, but probably not over Bumgarner. (Ben Lindbergh)
2012-03-06 13:00:00 (link to chat)Derek, thanks for chatting! Question for you on drafting Yu Darvish. In Yahoo! mocks, he's dropping into a cluster of SPs the likes of CJ Wilson, Madison Bumgarner, Josh Johnson, Adam Wainwright, Josh Beckett, Michael Pineda, Dan Hudson, and Mat Latos. How would you rank these 9 players on your draft board?
(BR from NYC)
Hmm... off the top of my head, I'll go Beckett, Johnson, Wainwright, Bumgarner, Darvish, Hudson, Wilson, Pineda, Latos. (Derek Carty)
2012-01-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)How high are you on Madison Bumgarner this year? He rebounded really well after a rough start to the season. Does he make the leap to truly elite status in 2012?
(Peter from Westtown)
I like Bumgarner, but I don't know if I see him taking the leap into truly elite company like Linecum/Felix/CC. But a top 15-20 pitcher, sure, I think he's just about there. (Derek Carty)
2012-01-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)Does Madison Bumgarner have #1 (stud) upside?
(George from CT)
#1 is such an arbitrary distinction, and everyone seems to define it differently, but yes, I think he does, in the sense that his 3.21 ERA from this year will be repeatable in subsequent seasons. Maybe not best to bank on a complete repeat for 2012, but he's certainly capable of it. (Derek Carty)
2010-08-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)Will Madison Bumgarner be a useful fantasy pitcher next year? He looks like he's in over his head lately.
(Wilson from Denver)
I think so--he's not going to have an ERA in the low 3's (which is where he was before last night's adventure) but he should be able to post a league average SIERA and then get a boost in his ERA from his home park. I like Bumgarner, but his numbers in the majors early on surprised me given how his minor league season had gone. (Marc Normandin)
2010-07-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)what's your outlook for Madison Bumgarner in the 2nd half? Does he stick w/ SF? And is he worthy of a roster spot in deep mixed leagues?
(Gigantes from SF)
I think he'll stick with San Fran, but yes, the league would need to be deep. He has some potential problems against right-handers, the kind of thing that once major league managers catch the scent of he won't be able to shake (ask Justin Masterson how that works for him with lefties) and his strikeout rates don't translate well into fantasy unless everything else is going perfectly for him. I think he'll be a good pitcher, but he still has a lot of work to do in his development. (Marc Normandin)
2010-06-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)Please rank the following in the order in which you think they will make their big league debuts: Mike Moustakas; Pedro Alvarez; Logan Morrison; Freddie Freeman; Madison Bumgarner; Jeremy Hellickson. Does anyone in this group make a significant fantasy impact in 2010?
(Chillin' from Waiver Wire)
I'm not terribly good at this kind of thing, but what the heck:

Alvarez, Moustakas, Hellickson, Morrison, Bumgarner, Freeman

I think the first three will see at least a sprinkling of big league time this year. The others I'm not so sure about. (Tommy Bennett)
2010-03-25 14:00:00 (link to chat)Should Madison Bumgarner fans be worried?
(jasemilw4 from Chicago)
A little bit. The velocity drop has been sustained over an offseason and as much as I've been a holdout, at this point I'm wondering what's going on. (Joe Sheehan)
2010-02-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)what does Madison Bumgarner's future hold? worth a flier in a long term keeper league?
(Steve from NJ)
It sounds like there's a good chance he'll be the Giants' fifth starter this year, though there are some concerns about him losing velocity last year, and he might need a bit more seasoning. But as a long-term play, I'd take a flier - the Giants do know how to develop young pitchers. (Jay Jaffe)
2010-01-26 14:00:00 (link to chat)Who will be the top 5 NL players who will make their major league debut in 2010?
(chaneyhey from stlouis)
Hmm, that's a toughie because it involves two variables that discount a player's expected value: likelihood of getting to the majors and expected production. We'll go with Heyward, Austin Jackson, Buster Posey, Jason Castro, and Madison Bumgarner. But that's basically an educated guess. (Tommy Bennett)
2009-12-11 13:00:00 (link to chat)Can Madison Bumgarner out-Lincecum Tim Lincecum?
(evolution from Chicago)
Maybe in basketball. (Kevin Goldstein)
2009-09-17 14:00:00 (link to chat)There is no more divisive prospect on the internets then Madison Bumgarner. The scouting reports don't seem to be matching what we're seeing, the fastball isn't as fast as reported, the secondary stuff doesn't seem to be much of anything. What gives?
(Sgrcuts from Flushing)
This needs to be figured out. Basically, he lost velocity slowly throughout the year, yet he still got guys out. I'm still trying to figure out what to make of him to be honest, and I need more information. (Kevin Goldstein)
2009-09-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)Did you get a chance to watch Madison Bumgarner's debut on Monday? If so, do you have any comments about his wide delivery, lack of velocity, or future outlook? Much to my chagrin, he seemed to be effective yet uninspiring.
(ericmilburn from San Francisco)
REALLY long takeaway, more so than I had expected from what I'd heard about him. Odd because the rest is so compact. I like him, never loved him. (Will Carroll)
2009-02-16 14:00:00 (link to chat)Last year, many guys coming out of the draft did not make your top 100 prospect list but made it this year such as Madison Bumgarner. Who do you think could make the list next year from the 2008 draft class who did not make it on this year's list?
(momansf from Brookline, MA)
I love questions like this, but understand that it's a bit of a guessing game. That said, Casey Kelly from the high school ranks, and Jemile Weeks on the college side. (Kevin Goldstein)
2009-01-26 14:00:00 (link to chat)You don't have to spoil your Top 100 list (which we all eagerly await, of course) -- but who's the 2nd best overall pitching prospect now behind David Price? Madison Bumgarner? Tommy Hanson? Neftali Feliz? Chris Tillman?
(Andrew T. from Baltimore)
If you read all of the published Top 11s, the answer is in there somewhere. So now you have a puzzle. Just call me Professor Layton and your all the Curious Villagers. (Kevin Goldstein)
2008-09-03 14:00:00 (link to chat)What's with all of the boundless enthusiasm for Madison Bumgarner's big season? Is he really that much more than a guy with a plus fastball and plus fastball command dominating Low-A hitters without needing to make use of his secondary stuff (which is below average from the reports I've seen) ?
(Aaron from YYZ)
Yeah! Why are people excited about a first-round pick who just turned 19 who is six-foot-five and lefthanded and had a 1.46 ERA in a full-season league with 164 strikeouts against just 21 walks in 141.2 innings. That makes no sense to me!

In all seriousness however -- yes, Aaron, he's MUCH more than that. Curveball made great strides, and to call the fastball and command merely plus is doing both a grave diservice. (Kevin Goldstein)
2008-06-04 16:00:00 (link to chat)I love the Portal plug. Hard but not hair-pullingly frustrating puzzles combined with excellent dry humor, whats not to love? I wish had been longer though. If they were both available in the same draft, would you take Madison Bumgarner or Tim Melville?
(Trenchtown from Washington)
Everyone wishes it was longer, but still it was only $20 bucks, or even cheaper as part of The Orange Box package, so it's not like you got soaked. Gimme Bumgarner. More velo, and he's lefty. I guess I'll live with the arm slot. (Kevin Goldstein)
2008-04-01 14:00:00 (link to chat)Madison Bumgarner has some kinks to work out this season, what is his ceiling and is it higher than tim alderson
(lammmster from Long Island NY)
This is one of those funky situations. Bumgarner's ceiling is higher than Alderson, but he's nowhere near as safe a bet. (Kevin Goldstein)

BP Roundtables

DateRoundtable NameComment
2010-04-05 09:30:00Season Opener RoundtableJquinton82 (NY): Heres a few topics: 1) Madison Bumgarner's missing velocity 2) First top 25 prospect to get called up, who & when? 3) The next Jimmy Rollins is...? 4) Word association - Yogi Berra ...discuss amongst yourselves

1) Either he's hurt, or he left it in his other pants. Like lost car keys, missing velocity is always in the last place you look.

2) Well, with Jason Heyward, Neftali Feliz, Brian Matusz and Alcides Escobar breaking camp, this doesn't seem like that big a deal, but I'll go with Buster Posey, May 9, after Bengie Molina sprains some fat.

3) ...taller than Rollins and hopefully blessed with a better OBP.

4) Provider of great book titles by cool people, including our own It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over and friend Emma Span's 90% of The Game Is Half Mental, which is one of this spring's funniest baseball books.

Speaking of Yogi, I read a quote the other day that was attributed to him: "In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is." Alas, that quote has also been attributed to one Johannes "Jan" L. A. van de Snepscheut, a Dutch computer scientist who taught at Caltech before bludgeoning his wife to death with an axe in 1994.

So there's a happy tale. (Jay Jaffe)

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