Jake Arrieta PPhillies
|Login or Subscribe today for access to projections!|
Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET
|Date On||Date Off||Transaction||Days||Games||Side||Body Part||Injury||Severity||Surgery Date||Reaggravation|
|2014-03-21||2014-05-03||15-DL||43||27||Right||Shoulder||Recovery From Previous Injury||Inflammation||-||-|
|2011-08-01||2011-09-29||60-DL||59||57||Right||Elbow||Surgery||Bone Spurs and Fibrous Mass||2011-08-12||-|
Definition of multi-year splits
|2016-12-01 19:00:00 (link to chat)||Are we starting to see the decline of Jake Arrieta or is he back to his dominant self in 2017?|
(Ted from Chicago)
|I don't know if we're seeing a decline more than we're seeing him settling at his 2016 level. The stuff is still great but all of the command issues last year might be the new normal. If he fixes that, he could be elite again. If he doesn't, an ERA around 3.2 with about a strikeout an inning could be where he sits, which isn't bad at all. Just difficult to expect 2015 again, ever. (Mike Gianella)|
|2016-09-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Hi Harry,
What do we make of Jake Arrieta's slider usage going down from 30% in 2015% to 17% this year? Do you think it's intentional in order to sustain health? Or, evident by his low wSL/C, do you think it's because he just doesn't have a feel for it.
(Brendan from LA)
|Interesting. Guesses of possible influences, in no particular order: pitching behind more; strategic decision to hide it more; maybe part of a fatigue avoidance plan, but doubtful; matchups; catcher preference. (Harry Pavlidis)|
|2016-06-07 12:00:00 (link to chat)||I kn ew Jake Arrieta was a fraud. The guy is terrible. He sucks. Every Cardinals pitcher is way better|
(Jim from St Louis)
|Best chats in baseball (Jeffrey Paternostro)|
|2016-05-16 23:00:00 (link to chat)||Few Cubs questions for you sir.
Will Jorge Soler ever mentally figure it out? We all know the huge potential thats there.
What is Javier Baez's best long term position?
If the Cubs and Jake Arrieta cant workout a deal by next trade deadline and they decide to deal him, what kind of haul could he return?|
(BC from Urbandale)
|Soler just turned 24 and has a bunch of work to do in ironing out his approach. I can't speak to his mental fortitude, but with guys who reach the major leagues I tend to assume it's a relative strength. Better question is whether effort to evolve his approach wins the day ultimately or not. Hasn't shown much progress this spring. Baez seems to be just fine in a utility capacity, I wouldn't go out of my way to settle him into one spot. And re: Arrieta, I can't see the Cubs being in the market of selling a dude like Arrieta given their competitive window. If he leaves, he leaves, but have to assume he'd do so after pitching post-season ball in Cub pinstripes. (Wilson Karaman)|
|2016-05-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)||What player(s) has surprised you the most at the 1/4 mark of the season at the MILB levels and the MLB level? |
(fightingmoose from Manitoba)
|Jackie Bradley Jr., Jake Arrieta, Mark Trumbo, and Nick Castellanos (Jim Walsh)|
|2016-05-11 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Other than the Cubs, does any team have a brighter future beyond 2016 than the Phillies?|
(Steven from Indiana)
|Hey, on this same topic... I have the Phillies winning the NL East in 2019, one win shy of the Cubs' win total and tied for the sixth-best record in baseball that year. (And, hey, I think these are as absurd as I hope you do!) The Phillies have a lot of the things that the Cubs had (buy-in on full rebuild, great farm system, big budget going unused) and we don't have any reason to be doubtful of this front office, other than that they had to rebuild an infrastructure that was a decade behind a lot of other teams. That said: The Cubs aren't this good because they followed a model for other teams to follow; they're this good because they followed that model and made *every right move along the way*. You can't look at the Cubs and say "let's do that" without answering the question of who the terrible pitcher you're going to turn into Jake Arrieta is. (Sam Miller)|
|2016-05-11 13:00:00 (link to chat)||A recent episode of EW inspired my Crazy Idea of the Week. The discussion about how teams aren't necessarily incentivized to create juggernaut teams, but rather to win the division and roll the dice in the postseason got me thinking. Should the Cubs, who have the makings of a juggernaut on their hands, switch to a 6 man rotation to preserve the health of their arms until October? Hammel has had consistent struggles in the second half and Arrieta has said that he felt worn down in the playoffs in 2015. If the Cubs manage to continue this pace through the end of May, should they consider adding Adam Warren to their rotation and focus on maximizing their chances in the postseason?|
(Will from Gainesville)
|Well, yes. They probably should. I haven't seen (or don't remember) a great study on how much the fatigue of a long season affects pitching in October, but it seems very intuitive that every inning you've thrown makes you a little bit worse by the 230th or 250th. So I support this idea, with two possible exceptions:
1) If the Cubs have some chance at doing something heroic (like winning 117 games; pretty much just that. Maybe a winning streak, maybe personal achievements), they should. I've been unable to convince any of my Bay Area friends that the Warriors winning 73 was a much bigger deal than them potentially winning this year's title, but I feel that way, and if the Cubs can chase 117 without doing any real damage to their playoff chances I'd say they should; 2) if the Cubs have some reason to believe that costing Jake Arrieta a Cy Young award, or Jon Lester 20 wins, or something along those lines, would lead to great unhappiness, it'd be worth listening to those guys. But I wouldn't just assume either of those things would lead to great unhappiness, even if we're all excessively paranoid about unhappy athletes. (Sam Miller)
|2016-05-04 13:00:00 (link to chat)||What more/ how long does Jake Arrieta have to keep this up for it to become the most dominant run in baseball history?|
(BC from Urbandale)
|I'd like to see more strikeouts, if I'm gonna put him next to Pedro or Maddux or Kershaw. He seems to be exceptionally skilled at creating soft contact, but the Cubs have also just been a marvelous defensive team throughout this stretch of dominance. If Arrieta keeps up just this way all season, I'll buy that he's just that unique, and that the team effect is minimal, in which case he gets really close to Pedro. (Matthew Trueblood)|
|2016-01-14 20:00:00 (link to chat)||Are you a big believer in fan graphs accuracy? How close do you think they are with the Cubs at 97 wins?
Also, are the Cubs done, or is another back of the rotation guy still a possibility?|
(BC from Urbandale)
|I know this is a cop out, but projections and predictions aren't the same thing. Their model is likely fairly accurate but individual results are always going to skew things.
97 seems fairly close for the Cubs, assuming that Jake Arrieta doesn't take a big step back (I don't think he will). 91 seems like the win total if a lot goes wrong so 93-97 is a realistic possibility.
Barring something falling in the laps, I think the Cubs are done. Maybe a supplemental move to find a guy who could fill in innings if everything breaks right. (Mike Gianella)
|2015-10-07 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Any concern about a Pirates alternate game plan (using bunting more frequently) that could potentially take Arrieta off his game tonight?|
(John from Springfield, MO)
|Josh Harrison is talking about this right now, trying to rattle Jake with the running game or by bunting. No. You can't rattle Jake Arrieta. But it can't hurt to try and shake things up, so I guess the Pirates will do what they must. Just know this guy is extremely athletic and any suggested issues throwing to bases are not accurate, IMO (Sahadev Sharma)|
|2015-09-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)||What does Jake Arrieta have to do his next 2 starts/ Zach Greinke not do in his next starts for Jake to bring home the Cy?|
(BC from Urbandale)
|Pitch well; pitch poorly? That's a horrible answer, but honestly I don't keep up with the awards stuff. Both are worthy. (R.J. Anderson)|
|2015-09-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Who are candidates to become the Jake Arrieta of 2016??|
(Rotoman from NYC)
|Well, what was Arrieta? A starter whose good stuff had been sabotaged by other factors for years. If you go by that definition, then you get a candidate pool including guys like Trevor Bauer, Jarred Cosart, Willy Peralta, and so on. Are any of those guys likely to make an Arrieta-like leap? No, otherwise Arrieta wouldn't be special, but that's the class we're talking about if we stay true to the above description. (R.J. Anderson)|
|2015-07-23 17:00:00 (link to chat)||Rank these Theo Epstein trade fleecings:
1. Rangers - 2 trades (recevied Hendricks, Villanueva, Edwards, Grimm, Ramirez, and Olt for Dempster and Garza rentals (resulted in 0 WS)).
2. Orioles (received Jake Arrieta, Pedro Strop, and international bonus money for Scott Feldman and Steve Clevenger.
3. A's (received Addison Russell (!), Billy McKinney, and Dan Straily for Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel (who promptly returned to Cubs in FA)).
Also, are you still a little in shock that Billy Beane traded Addison Russell?|
(Mark from Bleacher Nation)
|That's a fun question.
The Arrieta trade, the Russell trade, and the Rangers trade. I was not in shock about it (nothing Beane does is on the shock level) but I was very surprised. (Mike Gianella)
|2015-02-26 20:00:00 (link to chat)||Jake Arrieta and Carlos Carrasco were fantastic down the stretch. Do you think those two can finish what they started, what I mean is do you think one or both could be this year's Kluber?|
(G Money from Orlando)
|I think we're overstating how rarely a Kluber happens. Arrieta is much more likely to continue the success and stay healthy in 2015, but expecting a Cy Young out of either of them is a bit much. (Bret Sayre)|
|2015-01-28 19:00:00 (link to chat)||Has Jake Arrieta become an ace? Top 15 pitcher this year? |
(Walker from Houston)
|Along the same vein as the Gerrit Cole question he's going to have to log 200 innings and keep the same production for him to be an ace in my mind. It wouldn't surprise me if he was top 15 but he has to go out there and prove it. (Mauricio Rubio)|
|2014-10-31 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Given the success of mediocre starters turned stud relievers (Zachary Britton, Wade Davis) combined with the KC approach of using three relievers to close out the game, do you expect more teams to attempt to take such an approach?? Thanks for the chat, I always appreciate the insights of the BP team!!|
(DJ from Dallas)
|I think this approach has always existed. History tends to repeat itself. That being said, in a day where pitchers are getting injured at high rates and can also wing it 95+ on a consistent basis, I think we will see more pitchers being moved into RP roles sooner rather than later.
It's a great idea to shift a player over if that is where you ultimately think they end up. I use Jake Arrieta as the example as to why you DON'T move them. Imagine if the Orioles or Cubs had moved him to the pen and given up on starting. 2014 would have never happened, and he was nasty this year. (Tucker Blair)
|2014-10-23 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Who are a few pitchers that you saw take a significant step forward/backward with their mechanics in 2014? |
(Shawnykid23 from CT)
|Steps forward: Trevor Bauer with his balance and simplified delivery, Yordano Ventura with his stability, Jake Arrieta with his momentum and transition through lift-and-stride, and Carlos Carrasco with his ditching of the windup and execution from the stretch (esp repetition).
Steps back: Danny Salazar in nearly all phases but especially stability, Justin Masterson with his vertical
The number of current and former Indians on this list is purely indidental (Doug Thorburn)
|2014-08-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Jake Arrieta a top 20 pitcher going into 2015? Who would you rather have in a Dynasty League, Oscar Tavares or Joey Gallo? |
(Kyle from Florida)
|Maybe not top 20 in a mixed but he's close. I think the improvements are legit and we are looking at a 1b or a 2a in fantasy. If someone puts him in their top 20 I won't be shocked. I definitely want the all around player in Taveras. I see a superstar in the making with him and a $20-25 player if I'm wrong. With Gallo I see a one-trick pony who is going to hurt the average or - at best - be BA neutral. (Mike Gianella)|
|2014-09-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Fantasy Question: Regardless of cost, who would you rather have for the next 3 years: Danny Duffy, Jake Arrieta, or Rusney Castillo? What kind of player will Castillo be?|
(Quiet Time from D.C.)
|Castillo is a total wild card. The scouting reports I've read pegged him somewhere between Rajai Davis and Shane Victorino, but then it was said that he bulked up and showed unexpected power during his workouts last month. Even if he "ony" ends up as the next Shane Victorino, I'd take that over either SP. I'd take most solid everyday players over most unproven SP's. (Cory Schwartz)|
|2014-08-19 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Does Baltimore have an issue with developing good starting pitching? Brian Matusz, Zach Britton, and Tommy Hunter are all now in the bullpen. Jake Arrieta is excelling in Chicago. Should Kevin Gausman be hoping for a trade?|
(Shawn from Cubicle)
|Kevin Gausman will be just fine. I don't think their player development is the greatest but that also has to do with the players' makeup and willing to make adjustments and work. (CJ Wittmann)|
|2014-08-08 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Can Jacob Turner pitch? https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/497798233549467648|
(CubsTwitter from Wrigleyville)
|He can throw a baseball towards a plate, so by the basic definition yes. I think it's a great pickup in the sense it costs them nothing and has reasonable upside, but I wouldn't bank on Turner turning into Jake Arrieta or something. With his GB tendencies, I think he can be a fine 5th starter. (Craig Goldstein)|
|2014-07-25 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Tell me anything you'd like about Jake Arrieta. I'm a huge Cubs fan and desperately want him to become a pillar for us. How good can he end up being?
P.S. Put some Kyuss on the jukebox and start the weekend ROCKING!!
(MKPJ from chicago)
|I am impressed by the adjustments that Arrieta has made, with a smoother transition through the lift phase of his delivery and more consistent timing. The guy has big stuff and the 95-mph FB is a true weapon if he can command the pitch well. JP Breen wrote about it here, and I dropped my thoughts on Arrieta's mechanics: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=24037
On the jukebox: Kyuss, "Hurricane" (Doug Thorburn)
|2014-07-25 14:00:00 (link to chat)||hey Doug..Love your work here at BP. I know Jake Arrieta has been a popular topic this year and i'm coming at you from a fantasy perspective.
I'm contemplating making a trade that would bring me back Arrieta. With the work Bosio has done with him would you feel comfortable calling him a solid no. 2 (fringe ace) level pitcher for the Cubs moving forward? has he shown you enough to warrant that label?|
(eamuscatuli15 from Nebraska)
|He is definitely a high-3, but I would have to see it for a longer stretch to give him the level-2 label. Timing can be fickle, and sometimes pitchers lose it in a hurry (or as quickly as Arrieta gained it). (Doug Thorburn)|
|2014-07-22 15:00:00 (link to chat)||True or False: Over the next few years Jake Arrieta is a #1 or #2 SP in the big leagues. Thanks |
(MKPJ from chicago)
|There really aren't that many of those. Sure, Arietta has absolutely nasty stuff-- however, it's been 85 innings. He's never even thrown 120 innings in a season at the big league level before. #1 or #2 starters take the ball every 5th day, and most of them throw 200 innings year in and year out. It's one thing to 'project' someone to do that, but they actually have to go out and do it at the big league level before that distinction can be given.
Short answer, I think he's probably a #3 starter enjoying a very good run. It was a great find by the Cubs. (Jordan Gorosh)
|2014-07-07 11:00:00 (link to chat)||Did you ever scout Jake Arrieta? Is this just a hot streak or a case of a guy reaching his full potential?|
(Matt from Seattle)
|I never really scouted him, although I did get to see him coming up. His breakout is real.
Sorry to do this but I need to step away for a few minutes to take a call. My brother is in the Navy and is about to deploy. I need to hear his voice for a few. Be right back. (Jason Parks on the Top 50)
|2014-07-03 19:00:00 (link to chat)||No Jake Arrieta questions? Will he win the Cy Young 2015-18 or no?|
(tomshipley75 from Neptune)
|And the MVP, you forgot about that.
Everyone wrote their "Jake Arrieta" is awesome piece. I want to see what happens when he has a bad inning. Is he still going to believe in his stuff enough to survive giving up some runs early in a game or will he deteriorate? Game is mental for him, things are going really well right now. What happens when he's bad?
Stuff was never a question. I believe in him because Bosio does, but I want to see him under duress and how he handles it. (Mauricio Rubio)
|2014-06-27 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Do you think Jake Arrieta can sustain anything close to this level of production? Control was always his issue: do you see anything in his mechanics this season that makes you believe he may be getting past that?|
(Kevin from Chicago)
|See previous question about Arrieta. I think that he is making legit gains, and his focus is well-honed with respect to ironing out his mechanics. (Doug Thorburn)|
|2014-06-27 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Hi Doug, recently got my mother a subscription to BP and told her the can't miss read is "Raising Aces". We're huge Cubs fans and have enjoyed the breakout of Jake Arrieta. I've read a lot about his upping the use of the slider/cutter. What have you seen from Arrieta and do you think he's turned the corner and set to be a lower top of rotation type/mid rotation type for the Cubs?|
(eamuscatuli15 from nebraska)
|Thanks for the hat-tip! Arrieta has serious velo, and I agree that his refinement of the slider is a big component of his success. He has also been working on having a more fluid timing pattern to his momentum, including less rock-n-roll and improved balance as he transitions through max leg lift. Harry Pavlidis has some great stuff coming out in the near future on Arrieta, so keep an eye out!
On the jukebox: Guns N' Roses, "Mr. Brownstone" (Doug Thorburn)
|2013-12-03 13:00:00 (link to chat)||At best Jake Arrieta seems like s 5th starter. Seems destined to be in the bullpen even on a lousy team. Agree/Disagree?|
(Will from Baltimore)
|I do think he winds up in the bullpen. At the same time, I wonder if there's a physical or mental reason why the Orioles didn't move him there. Maybe he can't warm up quick enough, or can't handle the daily preparation or something. They did it with Matusz, after all. (R.J. Anderson)|
|2013-07-29 11:00:00 (link to chat)||Many talk about the Mariners lack of ability to develop their hitting prospects but couldn't you say the same about the Orioles on the pitching side? Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, Zach Britton along with the struggles of Kevin Gausman (SSS I know) and the injury to Dylan Bundy. Should the O's be mentioned in the same breath in regards to their lack of development skills on the mound?|
(Roger Dorn from San Mateo)
|I don't know if I'm ready to say that the O's do not know how to develop pitching just yet. However, I will admit a lot of their pitching prospects have had different prospect paths than I would have predicted. . (Zach Mortimer)|
|2013-07-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Thoughts on the Feldman/Arrieta trade?|
(Guancous from Silver Spring, MD)
|First thought: I spelled Jake Arrieta wrong in my last answer about the deal. Still want hitting for Baltimore. Like it for the Cubs going younger and less predictable. With where they are as a team now and where their high-volatility assets lie, it's the right move to make. They have much more to do, but I really like what Chicago is building. They will have a very good end of the decade in Rosemont. (Zachary Levine)|
|2012-05-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Keeper League...looking to move LaHair for some SP. Who would be some of your favorite mid-level starters to target right now? Points league with emphasis on ERA/quality starts. Always looking for upside but need current yr production as well. |
(David from San Diego)
|Maybe try Brandon Morrow, Anibal Sanchez, Jordan Zimmermann, Jake Arrieta, and Chris Sale. (Derek Carty)|
|2010-07-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Jake Arrieta or Edinson Volquez for the rest of 2010?|
(sharkey from MPLS)
|Arrieta's K/BB ratio isn't inspiring much confidence, and he has to face the rest of the AL East.
Unrelated, Arrieta is 22 days older than I am, apparently. (Marc Normandin)
|2009-06-09 14:30:00||2009 Draft Coverage||Kiley, I think it's weirder to see Sanchez, because he has a lot less upside. But the weirdest, to me, is that the Orioles are so worried about signability: with the successes of picks like Wieters and Jake Arrieta, you'd think the Orioles would understand more than everyone else how to benefit from other teams tight wallets. (Bryan Smith)|
A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC