Biographical

Portrait of Jake Arrieta

Jake Arrieta PCubs

Cubs Player Cards | Cubs Team Audit | Cubs Depth Chart

2018 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 32)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
147.3 3.70 1.14 150 10 7 0 2.6
Birth Date3-6-1986
Height6' 4"
Weight225 lbs
Age31 years, 11 months, 17 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
4.82014
8.22015
4.72016
2.52017
2.62018
proj
WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA..
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR oppTAv PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP TAv WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA- WARP
2010 BAL MLB 18 18 100.3 6 6 0 106 48 52 9 .260 112 9.5 4.3 0.8 4.7 44% .289 .267 1.53 4.73 4.66 115 5.81 131.2 -0.6
2011 BAL MLB 22 22 119.3 10 8 0 115 59 93 21 .264 106 8.7 4.4 1.6 7.0 48% .272 .277 1.46 5.37 5.05 116 5.02 116.6 0.1
2012 BAL MLB 24 18 114.7 3 9 0 122 35 109 16 .268 104 9.6 2.7 1.3 8.6 46% .320 .266 1.37 4.00 6.20 92 4.17 95.5 1.3
2013 BAL 0 5 5 23.7 1 2 0 25 17 23 2 .274 101 9.5 6.5 0.8 8.7 33% .343 .310 1.77 4.63 7.23 110 5.87 140.5 -0.3
2013 CHN 0 9 9 51.7 4 2 0 34 24 37 7 .255 105 5.9 4.2 1.2 6.4 46% .190 .236 1.12 4.91 3.66 107 3.78 90.6 0.7
2014 CHN MLB 25 25 156.7 10 5 0 114 41 167 5 .254 100 6.5 2.4 0.3 9.6 51% .272 .199 0.99 2.22 2.53 70 2.35 57.5 4.8
2015 CHN MLB 33 33 229.0 22 6 0 150 48 236 10 .256 97 5.9 1.9 0.4 9.3 58% .246 .187 0.86 2.37 1.77 69 2.07 48.3 8.2
2016 CHN MLB 31 31 197.3 18 8 0 138 76 190 16 .264 92 6.3 3.5 0.7 8.7 54% .241 .221 1.08 3.55 3.10 91 3.29 72.8 4.7
2017 CHN MLB 30 30 168.3 14 10 0 150 55 163 23 .262 98 8.0 2.9 1.2 8.7 46% .279 .256 1.22 4.17 3.53 93 4.24 90.2 2.5
2013 TOT MLB 14 14 75.3 5 4 0 59 41 60 9 .262 104 7.0 4.9 1.1 7.2 42% .239 .261 1.33 4.83 4.78 108 4.44 106.3 0.5
CareerMLB1971911161.0885609544031070109.2611007.43.10.88.350%.268.2351.173.643.57913.6282.421.4

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR oppTAv PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP TAv WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA-
2007 PDD Wnt 14 0 16.0 1 0 0 8 7 16 0 .000 4.5 3.9 0.0 9.0 0% .222 .000 0.94 2.84 0.00 0 0.00 0.0
2008 FRD A+ 20 20 113.0 6 5 0 80 51 120 7 .268 105 6.4 4.1 0.6 9.6 50% .262 .222 1.16 3.64 2.87 82 2.29 84.9
2009 BOW AA 11 11 59.0 6 3 0 45 23 70 4 .270 95 6.9 3.5 0.6 10.7 38% .287 .235 1.15 3.01 2.59 77 1.92 85.9
2009 NOR AAA 17 17 91.7 5 8 0 97 33 78 9 .250 103 9.5 3.2 0.9 7.7 43% .324 .256 1.42 4.09 3.93 101 4.98 107.3
2010 BAL MLB 18 18 100.3 6 6 0 106 48 52 9 .260 112 9.5 4.3 0.8 4.7 44% .289 .267 1.53 4.73 4.66 115 5.81 131.2
2010 NOR AAA 12 11 73.0 6 2 0 48 34 64 3 .250 99 5.9 4.2 0.4 7.9 52% .237 .200 1.12 3.55 1.85 101 4.49 100.8
2011 BAL MLB 22 22 119.3 10 8 0 115 59 93 21 .264 106 8.7 4.4 1.6 7.0 48% .272 .277 1.46 5.37 5.05 116 5.02 116.6
2012 BAL MLB 24 18 114.7 3 9 0 122 35 109 16 .268 104 9.6 2.7 1.3 8.6 46% .320 .266 1.37 4.00 6.20 92 4.17 95.5
2012 NOR AAA 10 10 56.0 5 4 0 46 28 54 3 .255 94 7.4 4.5 0.5 8.7 48% .287 .240 1.32 3.64 4.02 104 4.30 101.2
2013 BAL MLB 5 5 23.7 1 2 0 25 17 23 2 .274 101 9.5 6.5 0.8 8.7 33% .343 .310 1.77 4.63 7.23 110 5.87 140.5
2013 CHN MLB 9 9 51.7 4 2 0 34 24 37 7 .255 105 5.9 4.2 1.2 6.4 46% .190 .236 1.12 4.91 3.66 107 3.78 90.6
2013 IOW AAA 7 7 30.3 2 2 0 32 16 39 2 .255 90 9.5 4.7 0.6 11.6 51% .390 .278 1.58 3.63 3.56 83 4.10 99.8
2013 NOR AAA 9 8 49.0 5 3 0 45 14 38 4 .254 97 8.3 2.6 0.7 7.0 52% .285 .230 1.20 3.63 4.41 103 4.80 106.8
2014 CHN MLB 25 25 156.7 10 5 0 114 41 167 5 .254 100 6.5 2.4 0.3 9.6 51% .272 .199 0.99 2.22 2.53 70 2.35 57.5
2014 DAY A+ 1 1 5.7 0 0 0 5 2 7 3 .224 98 7.9 3.2 4.8 11.1 60% .167 .318 1.24 8.85 4.76 87 2.84 91.5
2014 TEN AA 4 4 14.3 1 1 0 8 5 11 0 .241 99 5.0 3.1 0.0 6.9 62% .200 .181 0.91 2.69 1.26 93 3.94 98.9
2015 CHN MLB 33 33 229.0 22 6 0 150 48 236 10 .256 97 5.9 1.9 0.4 9.3 58% .246 .187 0.86 2.37 1.77 69 2.07 48.3
2016 CHN MLB 31 31 197.3 18 8 0 138 76 190 16 .264 92 6.3 3.5 0.7 8.7 54% .241 .221 1.08 3.55 3.10 91 3.29 72.8
2017 CHN MLB 30 30 168.3 14 10 0 150 55 163 23 .262 98 8.0 2.9 1.2 8.7 46% .279 .256 1.22 4.17 3.53 93 4.24 90.2

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2010 1705 0.4891 0.4235 0.8463 0.5767 0.2767 0.8981 0.7427 0.1537
2011 2087 0.4763 0.4207 0.8064 0.5634 0.2909 0.8679 0.6981 0.1936
2012 1948 0.4933 0.4097 0.7857 0.5723 0.2513 0.8527 0.6371 0.2143
2013 1261 0.5052 0.4330 0.8260 0.5824 0.2804 0.8868 0.6971 0.1740
2014 2403 0.4744 0.4519 0.7495 0.5921 0.3254 0.8504 0.5839 0.2505
2015 3425 0.4829 0.4654 0.7440 0.6191 0.3219 0.8438 0.5649 0.2560
2016 3115 0.4658 0.4514 0.7482 0.6292 0.2963 0.8467 0.5659 0.2518
2017 2709 0.5042 0.4371 0.7889 0.6003 0.2710 0.8646 0.6181 0.2111
Career186530.48450.44040.77820.59710.29290.85970.62290.2218

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-03-21 2014-05-03 15-DL 43 27 Right Shoulder Recovery From Previous Injury Inflammation - -
2014-02-13 2014-03-21 Camp 36 0 Right Shoulder Inflammation - -
2013-04-01 2013-04-05 DTD 4 3 Right Fingers Blister Middle Finger - -
2011-08-01 2011-09-29 60-DL 59 57 Right Elbow Surgery Bone Spurs and Fibrous Mass 2011-08-12 -
2011-07-26 2011-07-26 DTD 0 0 Right Foot Contusion Batted Ball - -
2010-09-15 2010-10-04 DTD 19 17 Right Elbow Bone Spur -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2017 CHN $15,637,500
2016 CHN $10,700,000
2015 CHN $3,630,000
2014 CHN $544,500
2013 BAL $516,500
2012 BAL $488,500
2011 BAL $419,000
YearsDescriptionSalary
7 yrPrevious$31,936,000
7 yrTotal$31,936,000

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
6 y 145 dBoras Corp.1 year/$15.6375M (2017)

Details
  • 1 year/$15.6375M (2017). Re-signed by Chicago Cubs 1/13/17 (avoided arbitration).
  • 1 year/$10.7M (2016). Re-signed by Chicago Cubs 2/6/16 (avoided arbitration, $13M-$7.5M).
  • 1 year/$3.63M (2015). Re-signed by Chicago Cubs 1/16/15 (avoided arbitration).
  • 1 year/$0.5445M (2014). Re-signed by Chicago Cubs 3/3/14.
  • 1 year/$0.5165M (2013). Re-signed by Baltimore 3/8/13. Acquired by Chicago Cubs in trade from Baltimore 7/2/13.
  • 1 year/$0.4885M (2012). Re-signed by Baltimore 3/10/12.
  • 1 year/$0.419M (2011). Re-signed by Baltimore 2/11.
  • Drafted by Baltimore 2007 (5-159) (TCU). $1.1M signing bonus.

2018 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA DRA VORP WARP
90o 12.5 5.5 0 26 26 157.9 111 48 156 15 .239 1.01 2.99 3.05 37.6 4.1
80o 11.8 5.7 0 25 25 152.1 113 49 150 15 .250 1.07 3.31 3.39 30.9 3.4
70o 11.3 5.8 0 24 24 148.0 114 50 146 16 .257 1.11 3.53 3.63 26.4 2.9
60o 10.9 5.9 0 23 23 144.5 115 50 143 16 .263 1.15 3.73 3.84 22.7 2.5
50o 10.5 6 0 23 23 141.3 116 51 139 16 .269 1.18 3.92 4.04 19.3 2.1
40o 10.1 6.1 0 22 22 138.1 117 51 136 16 .275 1.22 4.10 4.23 16.2 1.8
30o 9.7 6.1 0 22 22 134.8 118 52 133 16 .282 1.26 4.31 4.45 12.8 1.4
20o 9.3 6.2 0 21 21 130.9 119 52 129 16 .289 1.31 4.54 4.7 9.0 1.0
10o 8.6 6.3 0 20 20 125.6 120 52 124 16 .300 1.37 4.88 5.06 4.0 0.4
Weighted Mean10.5602323141.31165013916.2681.183.904.0219.62.1

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2018 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA DRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
201933111002929181145611842149.2861.143.924.297.23.09.11.02.7
202034111103030191154651912249.2871.153.974.357.33.19.01.02.6
202135101002727163131571631949.2851.163.984.367.23.29.01.12.4
2022369902424140113521371749.2821.184.214.617.33.38.81.11.7
202337770202011896401151449.2861.164.064.457.33.18.81.11.6
202438760181810586371031349.2871.174.124.517.43.28.81.11.4
2025396601616937833911149.2891.194.164.557.53.28.81.11.2
2026405501515867131831049.2881.194.184.587.53.38.71.11.0
202741550131374632871949.2911.224.254.657.63.48.61.10.8

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 64)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 82 Roy Halladay 2009 3.09
2 79 Zack Greinke 2016 4.54
3 79 Ryan Dempster 2009 4.23
4 77 Justin Verlander 2015 3.78
5 76 Clay Buchholz 2017 12.27
6 73 Justin Duchscherer 2010 3.54
7 73 Doug Fister 2016 4.89
8 72 Roy Oswalt 2010 2.98
9 72 Tim Hudson 2008 3.30
10 71 Greg Maddux 1998 2.69
11 71 Roger Clemens 1995 4.44
12 71 Alexi Ogando 2016 5.06
13 70 Mel Parnell 1954 4.41
14 70 Jim Palmer 1978 2.86
15 69 Adam Wainwright 2014 2.54
16 69 Gaylord Perry 1971 3.73
17 69 C.J. Wilson 2013 3.94
18 69 Tom Gordon 2000 0.00 DNP
19 68 CC Sabathia 2013 5.20
20 68 Jered Weaver 2015 4.75
21 68 Tony Watson 2017 3.51
22 67 Mark Melancon 2017 4.80
23 67 Hank Aguirre 1963 3.83
24 67 Kevin Brown 1997 2.92
25 67 Kelvim Escobar 2008 0.00 DNP
26 67 Chris Carpenter 2007 7.50
27 67 Samuel Deduno 2016 0.00 DNP
28 66 Bill Swift 1994 4.03
29 66 Scot Shields 2008 4.12
30 66 Luke Gregerson 2016 3.59
31 65 Juan Marichal 1970 4.75
32 65 Mike Garcia 1956 4.23
33 65 Pedro Strop 2017 3.28
34 65 Tom Wilhelmsen 2016 6.99
35 65 Shaun Marcum 2014 0.00 DNP
36 64 Sean Marshall 2015 0.00 DNP
37 64 Mariano Rivera 2002 3.13
38 64 Cole Hamels 2016 3.72
39 64 Casey Janssen 2014 4.34
40 64 Jake Peavy 2013 4.35
41 63 Steven Wright 2017 9.00
42 63 Cesar Ramos 2016 6.61
43 63 Kevin Millwood 2007 5.79
44 63 George Kontos 2017 3.80
45 63 Carlos Zambrano 2013 0.00 DNP
46 63 Chris Sampson 2010 6.53
47 63 Jason Schmidt 2005 4.71
48 63 Phil Niekro 1971 3.75
49 62 Whitey Ford 1961 3.43
50 62 Chien-Ming Wang 2012 6.68
51 62 A.J. Burnett 2009 4.30
52 62 Jesse Crain 2014 0.00 DNP
53 62 Matt Clement 2007 0.00 DNP
54 62 Keith Foulke 2005 5.91
55 62 Ronald Belisario 2015 7.88
56 62 Tyler Clippard 2017 5.07
57 61 Joe Smith 2016 3.46
58 61 Jason Isringhausen 2005 2.14
59 61 Jim Johnson 2015 4.72
60 61 Junior Guerra 2017 5.63
61 61 Geoff Geary 2009 8.55
62 61 Kevin Gregg 2010 3.66
63 61 Barry Zito 2010 4.38
64 61 Doug Drabek 1995 5.06
65 61 Will Harris 2017 3.18
66 60 Jason Frasor 2010 4.24
67 60 Andy Messersmith 1978 8.46
68 60 Francisco Cordero 2007 3.27
69 60 Vic Raschi 1951 3.71
70 60 Heath Bell 2010 2.19
71 60 Jeff Fassero 1995 4.86
72 60 Anibal Sanchez 2016 6.34
73 60 Francisco Liriano 2016 5.41
74 60 J.P. Howell 2015 1.84
75 60 Scott Feldman 2015 4.07
76 60 Jon Lester 2016 2.53
77 59 Ramon Ramirez 2014 0.00
78 59 Matt Wise 2008 6.43
79 59 Max Scherzer 2017 2.78
80 59 Justin Masterson 2017 0.00 DNP
81 59 Jim Brosnan 1962 3.76 DNP
82 59 Burt Hooton 1982 4.25
83 59 Bronson Arroyo 2009 4.13
84 59 John Denny 1985 4.37
85 59 Warren Spahn 1953 2.66
86 59 Jose Mesa 1998 5.31
87 58 Orel Hershiser 1991 3.46
88 58 Mike Pelfrey 2016 5.75
89 58 Bob Lemon 1953 3.74
90 58 Tom Glavine 1998 2.63
91 58 Brad Penny 2010 4.04
92 58 Ray King 2006 5.24
93 58 LaTroy Hawkins 2005 4.15
94 58 Burke Badenhop 2015 4.07
95 58 Craig Breslow 2013 2.41
96 58 Hideki Okajima 2008 2.61
97 58 Anthony Varvaro 2017 0.00 DNP
98 57 Danys Baez 2010 5.85
99 57 Brian Fuentes 2008 3.16
100 57 Steve Rogers 1982 2.73

Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv
10 vs L (Multi) .187 .281 .289 .217
11 vs R (Multi) .202 .254 .308 .207
18 Split (Multi) -.015 .027 -.019 .011
19 LgAvg (Multi) .006 .020 .015 .013
30 vs L (2016) .194 .308 .304 .238
31 vs R (2016) .194 .250 .307 .206
38 Split (2016) -.000 .058 -.003 .032
39 LgAvg (2016) .003 .018 .013 .012

Definition of multi-year splits

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2017 Arrieta rode his cut fastball to the Cy Young award in 2015, but he didn’t have it in 2016. His usage of the pitch dropped by nearly a third, and his overall numbers suffered accordingly. He was still good, sure, even after accounting for the Cubs’ transcendent defense, but without that cut fastball in the back of hitters’ minds and the front of their strike zones, Arrieta transformed from league-wide ace to merely the third- or fourth-best pitcher on a very good starting staff. Meanwhile, his mechanics are high-energy enough that he’ll need peak conditioning to stay on top; as he grows older, that’ll be increasingly difficult to do. Bottom line: the present still looks good for Arrieta, but his future is increasingly murky.
2016 You know the basics of the story: Orioles prospect with two top-100 rankings under his belt spends three and a half years trying to get it together in the majors before Baltimore pulls the plug and sends him to Chicago for the steadier Scott Feldman; it's in the Cubs organization where the talent finally comes together, as Arrieta posts a 3.56 ERA in Iowa and a 3.66 ERA in Chicago in 2013. After a shoulder injury caused him to miss April 2014, Arrieta's been nothing but stellar: In 385 innings over the last two seasons, he's got a 2.08 ERA and 4.5 strikeouts to every walk while inducing grounders on well over half his balls in play. The culmination was his Cy Young Award victory over Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw, though any of the three would have been an excellent choice for the honor. Arrieta relies nearly three-quarters of the time on his sinker or his slider/cutter. The latter weapon was not a new invention in Chicago, not something he stumbled on during a vision quest in the Himalayas, but rather a pitch that simply began clicking. He uses the same grip and same arm slot, but generates effectively two pitches, throwing a low-90s cutter against righties and a high-80s slider with more depth to sink under lefties' bats. Arrieta was so far beyond excellent in 2015 that, while it's almost certain to stand as his best year, he has a lot of room to regress while still pitching like an All-Star.
2015 Arrieta started the season on the disabled list with shoulder issues, but once he took the mound in early May, he started pitching like one of the best arms in the National League. Under the tutelage of Chris Bosio, the former Orioles top prospect tweaked his mechanics, found consistency in his delivery, and revived his career, posting numbers that, if prorated over a full season, would put him near the top of Cy Young ballots. Arrieta also seemed the most confident he's been in his major-league career, expecting success rather than hoping for it, and when he did struggle, he showed the mental fortitude to quickly rectify the problem and bounce back strong. The key to 2015 is health; if he can pitch a full season, Arrieta is primed to continue his ascent and emerge as one of the top arms in all of baseball.
2014 After a disastrous first half in Baltimore, Arrieta was traded to the Cubs at midseason and rebounded to post a mediocre ERA and earn a rotation shot going forward. The scare quotes are there due to Arrietas continued dreadful peripherals, as the big righty suffered significant leakage in his strikeout and home run rates while still walking too many batters, leading to an alarming FIP in Chicago. Arrieta looks the part of an innings eater, with an ideal frame, a heavy sinker that can reach the mid-90s and two usable breaking pitches, yet still misses fewer bats than Kyle Lohse or Barry Zito. Worst of all, his results deteriorate as a game wears on, with hitters posting an .855 OPS the second time they face him, compared to .685 in their first at-bat. Running Arrieta out every fifth day is just setting him up to fail, and the Cubs would be wise to find out if his stuff will play up in the bullpen.
2013 Arrieta had an amazing 2012 seasonif you only look at the peripherals. Unfortunately, the surface numbers were horrendous, bad enough that its tough to chalk it up to mere luck. Arrieta has terrific stufftwo 94-mph fastballs and three plus secondary offeringsbut he doesnt seem to trust that stuff the way he should. He has a tendency to aim instead of pitch when he gets in a jam, and that manifested itself in the form of a 57 percent LOB percentage last year. The O's have a lot of rotation options, so continued struggles could earn Arrieta another demotion, but he is extremely talented and equally hard-working, so it would be no surprise if 2013 is his breakout year and he becomes the club's ace.
2012 While Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman got the most hype of Baltimore's pitching prospect trio while they were coming up, Arrieta has enjoyed the most major league success of the three. He started the home opener for the O's in 2011, and pitched well before an August surgery to remove bone chips from his pitching elbow. Arrieta has two fastballs, a sinker to get groundballs and a 92-mph four-seamer. The four-seamer sets up his two above average breaking ballsa slider and a curveplus a show-me change. He has the stuff to generate strikeouts and induce grounders. Whether he steps up to become a second or third starter depends on how his control develops and his rehab post-surgery.
2011 What we have here is a work in progress: Arrietas pitching isnt quite as mature as his mustache makes him out to be. He has a terrific fastball that sits around 93, but he doesn't command it well, and his off-speed pitches dont do much for him. The result was difficulty in getting batters to swing and miss, and as a result, his walks outnumbered his strikeouts through August. Before being shut down in mid-September with a bone spur in his right elbow (he opted not to have surgery and should be ready to go in spring training), he caught the same transformative wave that benefited the rest of the staffit was as if the whole group simultaneously leveled up in some cosmic baseball role-playing gameand he walked just two batters in his final three starts. His long-term future is going to depend on the progress he makes with those secondary offerings; he kept the righties down (.213/.304/.290), but left-handers hit him hard (.315/.394/.505).
2010 Arrieta has arguably the best fastball in the system, sitting at 92-96 mph with a little natural boring action. He's a big, strong guy, maintains his velocity late into games, and isn't at all afraid to challenge hitters. His secondary pitches are all works in progress; that leads to an overreliance on his fastball, and Triple-A hitters punished him for it. Fundamentally, Arrieta has a tendency to overthrow and flatten out his slider, his curveball and change are average at best, and he has trouble commanding anything but his fastball. He'll be ticketed for Norfolk once again, but he could easily come up sometime in 2010.
2009 Arrieta had flashed dominant stuff in college, but had a poor season going into the 2007 draft. That performance deterred teams, so the Orioles were able to steal him in the fifth round, and he's since recovered the first-round stuff from prior years. He made his debut in High-A and promptly led the league in ERA, mainly by overpowering the circuit with a power fastball that gets into the upper 90s. His season was a little short, though not because of injuryhe was part of the US Olympic team, and had six shutout innings in Beijing.
2008 Arrieta had a poorer-than-expected season at Texas Christian last year. That plus Scott Boras' representation dropped him into the fifth round in the draft. The Orioles went way over slot, giving him first-round money to sign, and Arrieta buried the memory of his college season with a spectacular debut in the Arizona Fall League (16 innings, no runs). That should mean he'll start 2008 at an advanced level, High-A Frederick at least. He mostly works off of a sinking fastball.

BP Articles

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BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2016-12-01 19:00:00 (link to chat)Are we starting to see the decline of Jake Arrieta or is he back to his dominant self in 2017?
(Ted from Chicago)
I don't know if we're seeing a decline more than we're seeing him settling at his 2016 level. The stuff is still great but all of the command issues last year might be the new normal. If he fixes that, he could be elite again. If he doesn't, an ERA around 3.2 with about a strikeout an inning could be where he sits, which isn't bad at all. Just difficult to expect 2015 again, ever. (Mike Gianella)
2016-09-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hi Harry, What do we make of Jake Arrieta's slider usage going down from 30% in 2015% to 17% this year? Do you think it's intentional in order to sustain health? Or, evident by his low wSL/C, do you think it's because he just doesn't have a feel for it. Thanks, Brendan
(Brendan from LA)
Interesting. Guesses of possible influences, in no particular order: pitching behind more; strategic decision to hide it more; maybe part of a fatigue avoidance plan, but doubtful; matchups; catcher preference. (Harry Pavlidis)
2016-06-07 12:00:00 (link to chat)I kn ew Jake Arrieta was a fraud. The guy is terrible. He sucks. Every Cardinals pitcher is way better
(Jim from St Louis)
Best chats in baseball (Jeffrey Paternostro)
2016-05-16 23:00:00 (link to chat)Few Cubs questions for you sir. Will Jorge Soler ever mentally figure it out? We all know the huge potential thats there. What is Javier Baez's best long term position? If the Cubs and Jake Arrieta cant workout a deal by next trade deadline and they decide to deal him, what kind of haul could he return?
(BC from Urbandale)
Soler just turned 24 and has a bunch of work to do in ironing out his approach. I can't speak to his mental fortitude, but with guys who reach the major leagues I tend to assume it's a relative strength. Better question is whether effort to evolve his approach wins the day ultimately or not. Hasn't shown much progress this spring. Baez seems to be just fine in a utility capacity, I wouldn't go out of my way to settle him into one spot. And re: Arrieta, I can't see the Cubs being in the market of selling a dude like Arrieta given their competitive window. If he leaves, he leaves, but have to assume he'd do so after pitching post-season ball in Cub pinstripes. (Wilson Karaman)
2016-05-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)What player(s) has surprised you the most at the 1/4 mark of the season at the MILB levels and the MLB level?
(fightingmoose from Manitoba)
Jackie Bradley Jr., Jake Arrieta, Mark Trumbo, and Nick Castellanos (Jim Walsh)
2016-05-11 13:00:00 (link to chat)A recent episode of EW inspired my Crazy Idea of the Week. The discussion about how teams aren't necessarily incentivized to create juggernaut teams, but rather to win the division and roll the dice in the postseason got me thinking. Should the Cubs, who have the makings of a juggernaut on their hands, switch to a 6 man rotation to preserve the health of their arms until October? Hammel has had consistent struggles in the second half and Arrieta has said that he felt worn down in the playoffs in 2015. If the Cubs manage to continue this pace through the end of May, should they consider adding Adam Warren to their rotation and focus on maximizing their chances in the postseason?
(Will from Gainesville)
Well, yes. They probably should. I haven't seen (or don't remember) a great study on how much the fatigue of a long season affects pitching in October, but it seems very intuitive that every inning you've thrown makes you a little bit worse by the 230th or 250th. So I support this idea, with two possible exceptions:

1) If the Cubs have some chance at doing something heroic (like winning 117 games; pretty much just that. Maybe a winning streak, maybe personal achievements), they should. I've been unable to convince any of my Bay Area friends that the Warriors winning 73 was a much bigger deal than them potentially winning this year's title, but I feel that way, and if the Cubs can chase 117 without doing any real damage to their playoff chances I'd say they should; 2) if the Cubs have some reason to believe that costing Jake Arrieta a Cy Young award, or Jon Lester 20 wins, or something along those lines, would lead to great unhappiness, it'd be worth listening to those guys. But I wouldn't just assume either of those things would lead to great unhappiness, even if we're all excessively paranoid about unhappy athletes. (Sam Miller)
2016-05-11 13:00:00 (link to chat)Other than the Cubs, does any team have a brighter future beyond 2016 than the Phillies?
(Steven from Indiana)
Hey, on this same topic... I have the Phillies winning the NL East in 2019, one win shy of the Cubs' win total and tied for the sixth-best record in baseball that year. (And, hey, I think these are as absurd as I hope you do!) The Phillies have a lot of the things that the Cubs had (buy-in on full rebuild, great farm system, big budget going unused) and we don't have any reason to be doubtful of this front office, other than that they had to rebuild an infrastructure that was a decade behind a lot of other teams. That said: The Cubs aren't this good because they followed a model for other teams to follow; they're this good because they followed that model and made *every right move along the way*. You can't look at the Cubs and say "let's do that" without answering the question of who the terrible pitcher you're going to turn into Jake Arrieta is. (Sam Miller)
2016-05-04 13:00:00 (link to chat)What more/ how long does Jake Arrieta have to keep this up for it to become the most dominant run in baseball history?
(BC from Urbandale)
I'd like to see more strikeouts, if I'm gonna put him next to Pedro or Maddux or Kershaw. He seems to be exceptionally skilled at creating soft contact, but the Cubs have also just been a marvelous defensive team throughout this stretch of dominance. If Arrieta keeps up just this way all season, I'll buy that he's just that unique, and that the team effect is minimal, in which case he gets really close to Pedro. (Matthew Trueblood)
2016-01-14 20:00:00 (link to chat)Are you a big believer in fan graphs accuracy? How close do you think they are with the Cubs at 97 wins? Also, are the Cubs done, or is another back of the rotation guy still a possibility?
(BC from Urbandale)
I know this is a cop out, but projections and predictions aren't the same thing. Their model is likely fairly accurate but individual results are always going to skew things.

97 seems fairly close for the Cubs, assuming that Jake Arrieta doesn't take a big step back (I don't think he will). 91 seems like the win total if a lot goes wrong so 93-97 is a realistic possibility.

Barring something falling in the laps, I think the Cubs are done. Maybe a supplemental move to find a guy who could fill in innings if everything breaks right. (Mike Gianella)
2015-10-07 14:00:00 (link to chat)Any concern about a Pirates alternate game plan (using bunting more frequently) that could potentially take Arrieta off his game tonight?
(John from Springfield, MO)
Josh Harrison is talking about this right now, trying to rattle Jake with the running game or by bunting. No. You can't rattle Jake Arrieta. But it can't hurt to try and shake things up, so I guess the Pirates will do what they must. Just know this guy is extremely athletic and any suggested issues throwing to bases are not accurate, IMO (Sahadev Sharma)
2015-09-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)What does Jake Arrieta have to do his next 2 starts/ Zach Greinke not do in his next starts for Jake to bring home the Cy?
(BC from Urbandale)
Pitch well; pitch poorly? That's a horrible answer, but honestly I don't keep up with the awards stuff. Both are worthy. (R.J. Anderson)
2015-09-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)Who are candidates to become the Jake Arrieta of 2016??
(Rotoman from NYC)
Well, what was Arrieta? A starter whose good stuff had been sabotaged by other factors for years. If you go by that definition, then you get a candidate pool including guys like Trevor Bauer, Jarred Cosart, Willy Peralta, and so on. Are any of those guys likely to make an Arrieta-like leap? No, otherwise Arrieta wouldn't be special, but that's the class we're talking about if we stay true to the above description. (R.J. Anderson)
2015-07-23 17:00:00 (link to chat)Rank these Theo Epstein trade fleecings: 1. Rangers - 2 trades (recevied Hendricks, Villanueva, Edwards, Grimm, Ramirez, and Olt for Dempster and Garza rentals (resulted in 0 WS)). 2. Orioles (received Jake Arrieta, Pedro Strop, and international bonus money for Scott Feldman and Steve Clevenger. 3. A's (received Addison Russell (!), Billy McKinney, and Dan Straily for Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel (who promptly returned to Cubs in FA)). Also, are you still a little in shock that Billy Beane traded Addison Russell?
(Mark from Bleacher Nation)
That's a fun question.

The Arrieta trade, the Russell trade, and the Rangers trade. I was not in shock about it (nothing Beane does is on the shock level) but I was very surprised. (Mike Gianella)
2015-02-26 20:00:00 (link to chat)Jake Arrieta and Carlos Carrasco were fantastic down the stretch. Do you think those two can finish what they started, what I mean is do you think one or both could be this year's Kluber?
(G Money from Orlando)
I think we're overstating how rarely a Kluber happens. Arrieta is much more likely to continue the success and stay healthy in 2015, but expecting a Cy Young out of either of them is a bit much. (Bret Sayre)
2015-01-28 19:00:00 (link to chat)Has Jake Arrieta become an ace? Top 15 pitcher this year?
(Walker from Houston)
Along the same vein as the Gerrit Cole question he's going to have to log 200 innings and keep the same production for him to be an ace in my mind. It wouldn't surprise me if he was top 15 but he has to go out there and prove it. (Mauricio Rubio)
2014-10-31 13:00:00 (link to chat)Given the success of mediocre starters turned stud relievers (Zachary Britton, Wade Davis) combined with the KC approach of using three relievers to close out the game, do you expect more teams to attempt to take such an approach?? Thanks for the chat, I always appreciate the insights of the BP team!!
(DJ from Dallas)
I think this approach has always existed. History tends to repeat itself. That being said, in a day where pitchers are getting injured at high rates and can also wing it 95+ on a consistent basis, I think we will see more pitchers being moved into RP roles sooner rather than later.

It's a great idea to shift a player over if that is where you ultimately think they end up. I use Jake Arrieta as the example as to why you DON'T move them. Imagine if the Orioles or Cubs had moved him to the pen and given up on starting. 2014 would have never happened, and he was nasty this year. (Tucker Blair)
2014-10-23 14:00:00 (link to chat)Who are a few pitchers that you saw take a significant step forward/backward with their mechanics in 2014?
(Shawnykid23 from CT)
Steps forward: Trevor Bauer with his balance and simplified delivery, Yordano Ventura with his stability, Jake Arrieta with his momentum and transition through lift-and-stride, and Carlos Carrasco with his ditching of the windup and execution from the stretch (esp repetition).

Steps back: Danny Salazar in nearly all phases but especially stability, Justin Masterson with his vertical

The number of current and former Indians on this list is purely indidental (Doug Thorburn)
2014-08-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)Jake Arrieta a top 20 pitcher going into 2015? Who would you rather have in a Dynasty League, Oscar Tavares or Joey Gallo?
(Kyle from Florida)
Maybe not top 20 in a mixed but he's close. I think the improvements are legit and we are looking at a 1b or a 2a in fantasy. If someone puts him in their top 20 I won't be shocked. I definitely want the all around player in Taveras. I see a superstar in the making with him and a $20-25 player if I'm wrong. With Gallo I see a one-trick pony who is going to hurt the average or - at best - be BA neutral. (Mike Gianella)
2014-09-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)Fantasy Question: Regardless of cost, who would you rather have for the next 3 years: Danny Duffy, Jake Arrieta, or Rusney Castillo? What kind of player will Castillo be?
(Quiet Time from D.C.)
Castillo is a total wild card. The scouting reports I've read pegged him somewhere between Rajai Davis and Shane Victorino, but then it was said that he bulked up and showed unexpected power during his workouts last month. Even if he "ony" ends up as the next Shane Victorino, I'd take that over either SP. I'd take most solid everyday players over most unproven SP's. (Cory Schwartz)
2014-08-19 14:00:00 (link to chat)Does Baltimore have an issue with developing good starting pitching? Brian Matusz, Zach Britton, and Tommy Hunter are all now in the bullpen. Jake Arrieta is excelling in Chicago. Should Kevin Gausman be hoping for a trade?
(Shawn from Cubicle)
Kevin Gausman will be just fine. I don't think their player development is the greatest but that also has to do with the players' makeup and willing to make adjustments and work. (CJ Wittmann)
2014-08-08 13:00:00 (link to chat)Can Jacob Turner pitch? https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/497798233549467648
(CubsTwitter from Wrigleyville)
He can throw a baseball towards a plate, so by the basic definition yes. I think it's a great pickup in the sense it costs them nothing and has reasonable upside, but I wouldn't bank on Turner turning into Jake Arrieta or something. With his GB tendencies, I think he can be a fine 5th starter. (Craig Goldstein)
2014-07-25 14:00:00 (link to chat)Tell me anything you'd like about Jake Arrieta. I'm a huge Cubs fan and desperately want him to become a pillar for us. How good can he end up being? P.S. Put some Kyuss on the jukebox and start the weekend ROCKING!!
(MKPJ from chicago)
I am impressed by the adjustments that Arrieta has made, with a smoother transition through the lift phase of his delivery and more consistent timing. The guy has big stuff and the 95-mph FB is a true weapon if he can command the pitch well. JP Breen wrote about it here, and I dropped my thoughts on Arrieta's mechanics: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=24037

On the jukebox: Kyuss, "Hurricane" (Doug Thorburn)
2014-07-25 14:00:00 (link to chat)hey Doug..Love your work here at BP. I know Jake Arrieta has been a popular topic this year and i'm coming at you from a fantasy perspective. I'm contemplating making a trade that would bring me back Arrieta. With the work Bosio has done with him would you feel comfortable calling him a solid no. 2 (fringe ace) level pitcher for the Cubs moving forward? has he shown you enough to warrant that label?
(eamuscatuli15 from Nebraska)
He is definitely a high-3, but I would have to see it for a longer stretch to give him the level-2 label. Timing can be fickle, and sometimes pitchers lose it in a hurry (or as quickly as Arrieta gained it). (Doug Thorburn)
2014-07-22 15:00:00 (link to chat)True or False: Over the next few years Jake Arrieta is a #1 or #2 SP in the big leagues. Thanks
(MKPJ from chicago)
There really aren't that many of those. Sure, Arietta has absolutely nasty stuff-- however, it's been 85 innings. He's never even thrown 120 innings in a season at the big league level before. #1 or #2 starters take the ball every 5th day, and most of them throw 200 innings year in and year out. It's one thing to 'project' someone to do that, but they actually have to go out and do it at the big league level before that distinction can be given.

Short answer, I think he's probably a #3 starter enjoying a very good run. It was a great find by the Cubs. (Jordan Gorosh)
2014-07-07 11:00:00 (link to chat)Did you ever scout Jake Arrieta? Is this just a hot streak or a case of a guy reaching his full potential?
(Matt from Seattle)
I never really scouted him, although I did get to see him coming up. His breakout is real.

Sorry to do this but I need to step away for a few minutes to take a call. My brother is in the Navy and is about to deploy. I need to hear his voice for a few. Be right back. (Jason Parks on the Top 50)
2014-07-03 19:00:00 (link to chat)No Jake Arrieta questions? Will he win the Cy Young 2015-18 or no?
(tomshipley75 from Neptune)
And the MVP, you forgot about that.

Everyone wrote their "Jake Arrieta" is awesome piece. I want to see what happens when he has a bad inning. Is he still going to believe in his stuff enough to survive giving up some runs early in a game or will he deteriorate? Game is mental for him, things are going really well right now. What happens when he's bad?

Stuff was never a question. I believe in him because Bosio does, but I want to see him under duress and how he handles it. (Mauricio Rubio)
2014-06-27 14:00:00 (link to chat)Hi Doug, recently got my mother a subscription to BP and told her the can't miss read is "Raising Aces". We're huge Cubs fans and have enjoyed the breakout of Jake Arrieta. I've read a lot about his upping the use of the slider/cutter. What have you seen from Arrieta and do you think he's turned the corner and set to be a lower top of rotation type/mid rotation type for the Cubs?
(eamuscatuli15 from nebraska)
Thanks for the hat-tip! Arrieta has serious velo, and I agree that his refinement of the slider is a big component of his success. He has also been working on having a more fluid timing pattern to his momentum, including less rock-n-roll and improved balance as he transitions through max leg lift. Harry Pavlidis has some great stuff coming out in the near future on Arrieta, so keep an eye out!

On the jukebox: Guns N' Roses, "Mr. Brownstone" (Doug Thorburn)
2014-06-27 14:00:00 (link to chat)Do you think Jake Arrieta can sustain anything close to this level of production? Control was always his issue: do you see anything in his mechanics this season that makes you believe he may be getting past that?
(Kevin from Chicago)
See previous question about Arrieta. I think that he is making legit gains, and his focus is well-honed with respect to ironing out his mechanics. (Doug Thorburn)
2013-12-03 13:00:00 (link to chat)At best Jake Arrieta seems like s 5th starter. Seems destined to be in the bullpen even on a lousy team. Agree/Disagree?
(Will from Baltimore)
I do think he winds up in the bullpen. At the same time, I wonder if there's a physical or mental reason why the Orioles didn't move him there. Maybe he can't warm up quick enough, or can't handle the daily preparation or something. They did it with Matusz, after all. (R.J. Anderson)
2013-07-29 11:00:00 (link to chat)Many talk about the Mariners lack of ability to develop their hitting prospects but couldn't you say the same about the Orioles on the pitching side? Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, Zach Britton along with the struggles of Kevin Gausman (SSS I know) and the injury to Dylan Bundy. Should the O's be mentioned in the same breath in regards to their lack of development skills on the mound?
(Roger Dorn from San Mateo)
I don't know if I'm ready to say that the O's do not know how to develop pitching just yet. However, I will admit a lot of their pitching prospects have had different prospect paths than I would have predicted. . (Zach Mortimer)
2013-07-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thoughts on the Feldman/Arrieta trade?
(Guancous from Silver Spring, MD)
First thought: I spelled Jake Arrieta wrong in my last answer about the deal. Still want hitting for Baltimore. Like it for the Cubs going younger and less predictable. With where they are as a team now and where their high-volatility assets lie, it's the right move to make. They have much more to do, but I really like what Chicago is building. They will have a very good end of the decade in Rosemont. (Zachary Levine)
2012-05-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)Keeper League...looking to move LaHair for some SP. Who would be some of your favorite mid-level starters to target right now? Points league with emphasis on ERA/quality starts. Always looking for upside but need current yr production as well.
(David from San Diego)
Maybe try Brandon Morrow, Anibal Sanchez, Jordan Zimmermann, Jake Arrieta, and Chris Sale. (Derek Carty)
2010-07-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)Jake Arrieta or Edinson Volquez for the rest of 2010?
(sharkey from MPLS)
Arrieta's K/BB ratio isn't inspiring much confidence, and he has to face the rest of the AL East.

Unrelated, Arrieta is 22 days older than I am, apparently. (Marc Normandin)


BP Roundtables

DateRoundtable NameComment
2009-06-09 14:30:002009 Draft CoverageKiley, I think it's weirder to see Sanchez, because he has a lot less upside. But the weirdest, to me, is that the Orioles are so worried about signability: with the successes of picks like Wieters and Jake Arrieta, you'd think the Orioles would understand more than everyone else how to benefit from other teams tight wallets. (Bryan Smith)
 

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