Jeff Pease (1:12:25 PM PT): Welcome to BP's coverage of the 2009 Draft. The roundtable starts at 5:30 PM ET on Tuesday, June 9, but you can leave questions for our authors before the roundtable begins.
If you'd like to submit a question to be answered during the roundtable, you can do so here.
Kevin Goldstein (2:29:49 PM PT): Hi everyone and welcome to draft day, we'll be with you throughout the night.
A lot of messy stuff going on in the final hours.
Pittsburgh is now taking Tony Sanchez fourth, and seems to already have a deal done, or at least is awfully close. Don't get too mad YET Pittsburgh fans, until you get the whole picture, as they'll be looking to bust slot further down the road as well as make a big splash in the International market.
Atlanta is now leaning towards Mike Minor with the seventh overall pick, which is a pick that deserves far more criticism than Sanchez at 4. That's a very big domino that could lead to Cincinnati getting away from the high school arms and going for a quicker fix with Alex White.
Speaking of high school arms – all of those guys looking for huge money? They're all dropping . . . bigtime. Could all clear the top ten picks unless Detroit bites. Matzek, Purke, Miller and Turner will create a lot of tough decisions for teams picking in the middle of the first round.
Finding a home for Kyle Gibson, as well as last year's unsigned arms (Scheppers and Crow) is becoming more and more of a challenge.
Bryan Smith (2:39:34 PM PT): Hi readers, thanks for joining us for, what is this, our third consecutive draft roundtable? I can speak for Kevin when I say that these have been a blast for us previously, and I have no doubt we'll have fun the next two days. None of us can remember a wild card draft like this one, so you're probably going to get a lot of off-the-cuff reactions from Kevin, Kiley and myself.
I want to jump in here as the token college guy and say how pleased I am that these high schoolers are opening the door for a more Division I filled top ten. KG, of these four high school arms that are dropping, do you see any following the Gerrit Cole path to college? Or rather, is this a ploy to get themselves to certain big market teams?
Kevin Goldstein (2:41:17 PM PT): garsonf (Chicago): I know the White Sox have mostly been linked to one of a myriad of OF, but is there any chance they might deem a falling power arm to be a better option, and splurge on one of them?
Sources indicated that there are a few arms in their mix, but there is little indication that they'll bust slot.
Kevin Goldstein (2:43:32 PM PT): Bryan,
There's a lot of talk about what is going on. Like I wrote in my mock intro, EVERY high school player is asking for a ton of money in what almost looks like a concentrated effort in reaction to the lower slots. That said, I've talked to a number of teams that are generally considered two-the-line types who are now joining the anti-slot brigade as well.
Kevin Goldstein (2:45:26 PM PT): Elmo (Hartford): Any idea how far down Josh Phegley and Rich Poythress might fall? Seems like a lot of hype entering the year and both lived up to most expectations but little mention of 1st round buzz.
I think Poythress could slip into the end of the first round, and certainly should go in the sandwich. Phegly did NOT live up to expectations. He can hit, but nobody, and I mean NOBODY likes him defensively, which could drop him to tomorrow.
Kevin Goldstein (2:46:58 PM PT): Norman (San Jose ): who would you take, Porcello or Maztek at the same point in their career?
Porcello and it's not even close. All of these guys WANT a deal like Porcello, but none of them is even close to him on a talent level at the same point. They just line up well with what is usually the top high school arms. Porcello was the best prep righty scouts had seen since Beckett.
Bryan Smith (2:47:03 PM PT): phil gerrish (filer,idaho): Are all rounds of the draft selected today? How do the players know which teams are interested in them? Do they always know before today?
For the draft newbies, this is a good launching point. This year marks the first that the draft will be split into three days, with the first three rounds coming tonight. Often players will speak with area scouts and get an indication of who likes them, but I've interviewed a lot of players that are shocked by the team that picks them, having never heard from the organization prior to draft day.
Kevin Goldstein (2:47:50 PM PT): CanofCorn22 (Orange County,CA): With the prep arms all dropping who do you see the Giants taking? Green, Wheeler(OF), a college arm? Also, do you see any of those arms falling out of the first round?
They're going high school arm. Tim Wheeler is crazy talk, he's a late first round guy at best.
Bryan Smith (2:52:08 PM PT): morisato (el paso): Kevin, are there any programs that historically are hard to sign prospects away from?
I'm no Kevin, but I'll jump in with an answer to this one anyway. The poster program for retaining high school commitments is Stanford, which didn't have a player spurn the program for years before Jack McGeary. Rice is very good at this, as is Vanderbilt. Ultimately, the better educational programs have a leg up in this regard, as it's usually a driving influence behind a commitment. But any college coach will tell you that they are never sure about a player until he shows up on campus.
Kevin Goldstein (2:54:39 PM PT): UCLA needs to be in that mix as well.
Kevin Goldstein (2:55:49 PM PT): Ben F. (California): Hey guys, thanks for doing the roundtable. It is great fun. Does Randal Grichuk get taken today?
He's in the mix for some late first-round picks, but more as a backup plan. He definitely goes today, and maybe in the first 50.
Everyone learning about arm action on MLB network?
Kevin Goldstein (2:57:02 PM PT): battlekow (Milwaukee): Do you know which prep player the Brewers tried to negotiate an over-slot deal with?
As of right now, if they're looking to bust slot, they're probably STILL making those calls to get some sense of how wacky the dollars are for their guy. That would be a minor surprise.
Kevin Goldstein (2:58:22 PM PT): Pirate fan with a burning pitchfork (SF,CA): As more clubs talk about looking past the slot #s (artificially crunched, no less), can't one question whether saving money from Round 1 will even give them more relative walletpower in the later rounds?
KG: See Pirates, Pittsburgh
Bryan Smith (2:59:50 PM PT): Stephen (Tucson): I've heard people say that this draft class is less talented than other recent years. True, false or over simplification?
I go with the latter, only because I get sick of hearing every season about how the draft is shallow (except last year, when we all knew it was special). This is a terrible draft if you're banking on getting a starting position player for your future. I mean, terrible. But there's a lot of pitchers in this draft -- guys I like even down in the fourth and fifth rounds, that I think have a chance to be in big league rotations, and in some cases, quick.
Kevin Goldstein (3:00:08 PM PT): Jason (DC): With the Mets not picking until 72, will they look to take a guy who slips and possibly pay over slot?
KG: Yes, but it's hard to see a huge name dropping THAT far.
Kevin Goldstein (3:01:50 PM PT): Jonathan (Orlando): As a Braves I am freaked out that we are actually talked about Minor. Why?? Even if we have to stick to slot, wouldn't Borchering or Chad James be better?
KG: Yes, and yes. It's a horrible pick FOR ME, but I think early picks should be all about upside. Minor has a better shot of reaching that big leagues than anyone other than Strasburg in this thing, but his ceiling is a four starter.
Bryan Smith (3:02:55 PM PT): I would put my initials before my answer like KG is doing, but for some reason, I think it might damage my credibility.
Kevin Goldstein (3:04:40 PM PT): aCone419 (Atlanta, GA): What the deuce? If the Braves take Minor, I will be nonplussed to say the least. They love high school pitchers, the strength of this draft, and they take... a low upside pitchibility college lefty? WTF?
KG: They love $1 million high school pitchers NOT $3-7 million ones. If you have XM radio, I'm on 181 in five second, and I'll be saying that too you every hour. Me, Grant Paulsen and Jim Duquette rambling about this mess.
MLB Network coverage has begun.
Bryan Smith (3:11:26 PM PT): We've now received about 40 Mike Minor questions in the queue, and there's no doubt that Braves fans are worried about reports that the lefty might be their guy. I called Minor's (former) head coach, Vanderbilt's Tim Corbin today, who gave me an honest assessment of his ace. First of all, Minor is using David Price's agent, who teams like because he gets players signed and in uniform quickly. The stuff, as you may have heard before: good command of a low 90s fastball, a PLUS change, and a solid developing curve. The progression of the latter pitch is why scouts really liked him near the end of the season. Corbin says he's never had a player develop a pitch so quickly -- he threw a slider last season, and the pitch now could be a plus soon.
The negatives on Minor is that he offers very little upside, what you see is what you get. Corbin says Minor's camp thinks he's going to add some velocity, but it's a longshot. Instead, his focus has to be to keep the fastball down in the zone better, and to keep going with the curve. I think wood bats are really going to help him, because a player is much more confident throwing a change against wood.
Don't get me wrong, I like Alex White and almost all the high school pitchers better than Minor. But three solid pitches, a ETA of 2011 or so, and a slot bonus demand is dictating the interest in the lefty.
Kevin Goldstein (3:13:01 PM PT): I gotta say, Minor has to add velo just to be classified as Low 90s -- he's generally 88-91.
Kevin Goldstein (3:14:02 PM PT): jtsports01 (Boston): Stassi or one of the dropping high school arms at 28? What would the Sox do?
KG: They will not bust slot for anyone, only a select few. I think a big splash there is doubtful.
Bryan Smith (3:14:38 PM PT): Kevin's correct, that was poorly written by me. I should have said he tops out in the low 90s.
The Nationals on the clock.
Kevin Goldstein (3:15:50 PM PT): Washington is on the clock -- gee, I wonder who they'll take. Any talk about Washington NOT taking him is beyond dumb. I can't believe this discussion is even taking place.
Bryan Smith (3:16:51 PM PT): tbraxton34 (NYC): Do you think that the amount of interest in the MLB draft this year will be sustained going forward? Part of the equation for the NFL or NBA drafts is that casual fans can watch the draft, then see the player drafted play for their favorite team the very next season. That isn't going to happen in MLB, so will those fans who might be drawn in to the novelty of watching/paying attention to the MLB draft this season lose interest over time?
Any amount of heightened interest in this year's draft is about Strasburg. That's an inevitability. Because of the reason you mention, this draft will never be the spectacle that the NFL and NBA drafts are. So, I think that mass public interest is always going to correlate with the talent at the top. Now, I'm pretty sure Sports Illustrated just set the Bryce Harper hype campaign in motion this month, so whether it's 2010 or 2011, the Harper draft should see as much (or more) interest as this.
Kevin Goldstein (3:16:51 PM PT): David (Boston): Joe Sheehan expressed his displeasure (to say the least) with the draft in his chat yesterday. What do you guys think of it-should it be abolished?
KG: I think abolished is way way to strong. I think allowing the trading of picks would solve a TON of problems.
KileyMcD (3:18:55 PM PT): myshkin (Santa Clara, CA): If Bryce Harper were eligible for this draft, would he go right behind Strasburg?
I think he would, certainly by 3rd if a team prefers Ackley. The talent is real, but it doesn't really help anyone for expectations to hit the moon, though that won't stop anyone.
Kevin Goldstein (3:19:38 PM PT): Big shock: Washington takes Strasburg. Congrats Nats fan, you just got a potential franchise-changing talent. Now the REAL fun begins with the negotiation. I really should start a pool on bonus and total package.
Kevin Goldstein (3:21:01 PM PT): Oh yeah, in the pool, gimme 8.25 bonus, total package of 24.5 million.
Bryan Smith (3:22:06 PM PT): Bud's "on the clock" needs some work.
If I'm joining the pool, put me in at $18 million. But I'll hardly be surprised if it gets to $22M or so. The Nationals just NEED to sign him.
Kiley McDaniel (3:22:08 PM PT): mafrth77 (Boston): A general scouting question, can teams identify pitchers who will add a couple of mph velocity/ it seems most high school arms kind of stay where they are and only a select few add velocity.
Well there's the injury nexus or faulty mechanics that can keep guys from reaching their potential, but in theory, a projectable body, clean arm, etc. indicates adding some velocity and on the whole it does.
Kevin Goldstein (3:22:34 PM PT): Opening day starter 2010? The more I think about it and talk to others, I don't think he's pitching in the big leagues this year, other than maybe some BS relief innings in the last two weeks of the year.
Off topic: They just showed the Mariners table and I thought Jay Buhner was Bavasi and I got very confused.
Kiley McDaniel (3:23:50 PM PT): Put me down for the over on KG's suggestion, I'll go with an $11 million bonus and $25 million total package.
Kevin Goldstein (3:24:52 PM PT): Seattle takes Ackley with pick number two. All of the rumors about them passing on him seemed like a smokescreen all along. He was announced as an outfielder, but as an aside, some teams have talked about seeing if his hands are good enough for a look at second base. Either way, his bat is going to be pretty special for the position. I think he could be a Grady Sizemore kind of player offensively with less power but a better batting average.
Kiley McDaniel (3:25:01 PM PT): Put me down for the over on KG's suggestion, I'll go with an $11 million bonus and $25 million total package.
Bryan Smith (3:25:23 PM PT): Kiley mentioned some teams might prefer Ackley to Harper, and I think he's right, even though I can't understand why. I like Ackley, but I don't see any star potential here. I was amazed in Omaha last season -- he can put the bat on anything, and he's going to hit .300 in the Major Leagues. But I never saw the power potential that others did. I've heard it was up this season -- and I didn't see the Tar Heels in person -- but he's not going much past 15-20 in the bigs.
I'll repeat what I saw elsewhere: I could never really like a guy that has one below average tool (throwing arm) and one average one.
Kiley McDaniel (3:26:16 PM PT): DOB (Pittsburgh): Kiley, if given the choice between say, Donovan Tate and Miguel Sano, which would you take?
I slightly prefer Sano because I think there's a better chance he hits. That said, Tate has the higher ceiling and is 2 years older, so it's very close.
Kevin Goldstein (3:26:31 PM PT): brian (Albany NY): MLB's draft tracker mentions strasburg's secondary stuff as being "just average" is that in relation to major league pitchers now?, or just baseball trying to down play expectations?
KG: Those come from the major league scouting bureau, who is at this point only good for providing video. Their reports are laughable. Strasburg's breaking ball is plus to plus-plus.
Joe Hamrahi (3:27:17 PM PT): For what it's worth, Ackley had an OPS around 1.500 against RHP this year. I saw him as a freshman and he's real special.
Kiley McDaniel (3:27:32 PM PT): DOB (Pittsburgh): Kiley, if given the choice between say, Donovan Tate and Miguel Sano, which would you take?
I slightly prefer Sano because I think there's a better chance he hits. That said, Tate has the higher ceiling and is 2 years older, so it's very close.
Kevin Goldstein (3:28:37 PM PT): The list of SD first round picks on the screen is just cruel to Padres fans. San Diego takes Donavan Tate, and that's the highest upside they've maybe ever selected. Grady Fuson loved this guy from day one, and unlike the Matt Bush disaster, they actually got the approval to spend the money on the guy they like. MONSTER athlete.
Bryan Smith (3:29:08 PM PT): KG: have the Padres risked taking a player they might not sign, or has ownership given the okay to go up to $6 million on this talent? I imagine using the two-sport exception is going to help spread out this bonus.
Kiley McDaniel (3:29:25 PM PT): And Boras Corp. is 3-for-3 so far. Can I buy stock in them?
Kevin Goldstein (3:30:07 PM PT): P Bu (St. Louis): Pardon my ignorance (and going on a bit of tangent while we wait for the next pick), but what's the point of a signing bonus in baseball where the contracts are all guaranteed anyway?
KG: Very few of these guys are signing big league deals, and even then, it's for the minimum or just a bit more. That's not enough to get it done.
Bryan Smith (3:30:57 PM PT): niketour2 (Raleigh): Kyle Seager - overlooked or underwhelming?
Because Ackley just went, I'm throwing a question about his teammate in here. Is neither an appropriate answer? It looks like there's a good chance that Seager is going to go between the third and sixth rounds in this draft, and I have to think that's right where he belongs. Seager has been productive in all three years at North Carolina, and with a .386/.480/.574 line, never moreso than this season. But he won't hit for more than gap power, and he's pretty average at second base. I wouldn't draft him any higher than the fifth.
Kevin Goldstein (3:31:36 PM PT): Bryan,
The two-sport aspect of Tate, which allows San Diego to spread the money definitely helps things, but Boras will certainly look to turn extended payments into more money.
Kevin Goldstein (3:34:55 PM PT): The Pirates go with their late decision of Tony Sanchez. This is not a good pick, but it's too early to call this a bad draft, as they want to spend big internationally and look to slot bust later.
The Pirates hope he can be a Molina-esque shut down defender with the ability to hit 15-18 home runs a year. If it doesn't work out, he's at least a backup. Tons of way better talent on the board, but Pittsburgh hopes some of will still be around when they pick again.
Bryan Smith (3:35:45 PM PT): This reminds me what the Cubs did a few years ago when they drafted Tyler Colvin with the intention of spending money on Jeff Samardzija later in the draft. We hear the Pirates will be busy in the Dominican and in later rounds, but it's certainly weird to see Sanchez' name in the top five. Not more than a couple days ago, Kevin and I agreed that Jason Castro was a better prospect one year ago. And we know what we all thought about that Castro pick then.
Kevin Goldstein (3:35:46 PM PT): Jon (SF): Do you get the feeling that the MLB Network coverage is just going to say that everyone is a good pick and not criticize teams for overdrafting because of money?
KG: Note how the main analyst guy is Marcos from the scouting bureau? He's not going to criticize ONE SINGLE SOLITARY pick -- I'll bet a ton on that one.
Kevin Goldstein (3:36:44 PM PT): huffmake (toledo ohio): with tony sanchez being a top 5 pick. how does he compare to the 2 previous top college catchers drafted in buster posey and matt wieters
KG: Sanchez is a tasty burger, Posey and Wieters are the best steaks and that expensive place downtown.
Kevin Goldstein (3:39:02 PM PT): Baltimore eyed young pitching all along, but in the end, they decided that the top guys weren't worth the coin as they take Matt Hobgood, A guy most people saw as a mid-to-late first round kind of talent.
If you see the video on MLB, you can see why conditioning could end up an issue. MLB people talking about how he moved up, but there's only one reason -- when teams called him, he didn't mention the name Rick Porcello.
Kiley McDaniel (3:39:58 PM PT): Bryan: Is it weirder to see Sanchez or Hobgood in the top 5?
Bryan Smith (3:41:44 PM PT): Kiley, I think it's weirder to see Sanchez, because he has a lot less upside. But the weirdest, to me, is that the Orioles are so worried about signability: with the successes of picks like Wieters and Jake Arrieta, you'd think the Orioles would understand more than everyone else how to benefit from other teams tight wallets.
Kevin Goldstein (3:43:20 PM PT): Baltimore takes Zach Wheeler, no big surprise there. The air goes completely out of the room in Atlanta, and that lack of oxygen could have them getting ready to make my least favorite pick in the draft. Get ready for Minor.
Kevin Goldstein (3:44:16 PM PT): Dave (Chicago): With Tate and Hobgood gone, who's at the top of the A's draft board?
Mike Leake, Grant Green, Mike Minor is the trio they're working from most likely.
Kevin Goldstein (3:44:57 PM PT): Bryan,
I think the difference is that Wieters and Arrieta were WORTH what they got. Matt Purke is NOT worth $7M.
Joe Hamrahi (3:48:14 PM PT): And Kevin throws up his hands in disgust with the Braves!
Kevin Goldstein (3:48:21 PM PT): The Braves take Minor. It's indefensible. You don't want to take a high school kid, that's cool. You think he's better than Alex White, who I'm not even that high on, and you're nuts.
Number 7 picks who profile as No. 4 starters make no sense.
Did Marcos just say mid-90s?
Bryan Smith (3:49:04 PM PT): KG: My guess, from your Draft top 50, is that you don't think Mike Leake would have been a terrible pick for the Braves. I just don't see why there's such a discrepancy between him and Minor. Yes, Leake throws a little harder, and he's obviously more athletic. But command guys that throw three pitches, all at least average.
Why so much higher on Leake?
Kiley McDaniel (3:49:38 PM PT): Bud Selig will be here all weekend, tip your waitresses.
I guess all that talk about big demands and teams busting slot is a little south of here. Very conservative thus far.
Did they just say throw away the radar guns AND the stats on Minor? What is he doing on the mound, telling jokes?
Kevin Goldstein (3:50:51 PM PT): CanofCorn22 (Orange County,CA): Hobgood and Wheeler are clearly not the top HS pitchers, but how much of reach were they compared with the other arms still out there?
Not a huge reach, but a bit of one. The problem is they're just a little bit under the elite group, but half the price.
Bryan Smith (3:51:01 PM PT): Our readers responses to Bud Selig in the queue has been the highlight of my night so far. My last comment tonight will be my five favorite.
Joe Hamrahi (3:51:16 PM PT): One note about Minor from our pre-draft statistical analysis...great arm but watch out for those lefty bats! WHIP over 1.80 against them.
Kevin Goldstein (3:51:59 PM PT): Bryan,
Leake actually has above-average velo: 50-55 FB and I hate numbers below 50 there.
Joe Hamrahi (3:52:01 PM PT): And most of that 1.80 are hits!
Bryan Smith (3:54:46 PM PT): Joe: Great stat. I think that's very telling that the curveball needs more work. I think the one thing that separates Leake from Minor -- I have the ASU ace ahead, but narrowly -- is that Minor is going to need a little more help from minor league pitching coaches to reach his potential. Leake is almost there.
Kevin Goldstein (3:55:49 PM PT): Reds take Mike Leake and we have our first somewhat sizeable surprise here, as they were expected to take Alex White here or Shelby Miller. I like this pick, even this high. The difference for me between Minor and Leake is the difference between a No. 4 and a No. 3, which is pretty sizable for me.
Detroit is next and subject to TONS of rumors. All you can bet on here is power arm -- did they get the approval to spend big?
Kevin Goldstein (3:56:24 PM PT): macman (Brazil): So you're the Nats at 10, all these talented pitchers are falling down the list, but you're going to shell out 20+mil to SS. Who are you looking at?
KG: They wanted Minor, but now will probably go back to a bit of a conservative route with Drew Storen.
Kevin Goldstein (3:58:36 PM PT): Detroit does it again. Two years ago they got the best HS arm in the draft late with Porcello, this year they got the best HS arm in the draft at nine with Turner.
It's VERY simple -- David Chadd loves velo, and he got the money to spend in the end.
Kevin Goldstein (3:59:44 PM PT): nsmith3 (Dallas): Some nice arms are going to be available for the Rangers. Any chance they bite on a high-upside high schooler?
Shelby Miller could be that guy -- he wants over-slot, but not "Porcello money."
Kevin Goldstein (4:01:53 PM PT): strupp (Madison): Grant Green at 10 for the Nats makes a ton of sense, doesn't it?
KG: Theoretically, yes. But they want a guy who will sign for slot and not be a tough negotiation. There's no comp pick if he doesn't sign.
Kevin Goldstein (4:03:14 PM PT): Nats take Drew Storen at 10. Could be a horrible overdraft, but they have a chance to look smart if they try to start him.
As a reliever, he's not a closer, so you can't take him 10th.
Marcos tells me it's a good pick, and then tells me he has age on him -- neither makes sense to me.
Kevin Goldstein (4:04:19 PM PT): XM time.
Bryan Smith (4:05:05 PM PT): Another guy I saw in Omaha last year, so I can speak with some knowledge about Storen. The Stanford closer has an absolutely dominant breaking ball, probably a 65 on the 20-80 scale from what I saw. My thought regarding Storen echoed what Jonathan Mayo just said on the MLB Network: with good command of his sinker, why not try Storen's hand at starting again in 2010? I think he could really succeed there.
Kiley McDaniel (4:06:01 PM PT): At what point do teams start pointing to Detroit as a model for first round drafting? '04: Verlander, '05: Maybin, '06: Miller, '07: Porcello, '09: Turner. Going over-slot like that isn't ideal, but they've had a huge ROI on these picks, and went slot in '08 to get Perry who is already in the big leagues.
Bryan Smith (4:06:43 PM PT): I love that Mike Leake was joking about wishing he could play two ways. He was brought to Arizona State to play shortstop, but Pat Murphy never let him do it regularly. When Ike Davis was hurt last season, Leake stepped in and played and did a nice job with the bat. I couldn't believe the Sun Devils didn't let him hit more this season, and I heard he wasn't happy about it. But he obviously focused his anger and translated it to the best numbers in college baseball.
Kevin Goldstein (4:08:12 PM PT): Rockies take Tyler Matzek at No. 12 overall. Assuming money is no object, this is incredible value (on talent) at 12, and it's surprising the Colorado in the end turns into one of the slot busters. When you were looking for homes for those big money high school arms, Colorado never came up.
Kiley McDaniel (4:08:22 PM PT): Matzek is a steal, great pick there if they pony up the cash. I should be able to repeat that sentence a few more times today with all this talent still on the board.
Kevin Goldstein (4:09:46 PM PT): KC wanted an up the middle guy at 12 and Grant Green is still on the board. KC has no problems taking Boras guys. Rany is the most excited guy in the world right now.
Joe Hamrahi (4:10:56 PM PT): Hey, hey
Kevin Goldstein (4:11:09 PM PT): CNB (San Francisco): If White is still around at #13, do the A's take him, or still go for Green/Borchering?
I think they'd love Green there.
Kiley McDaniel (4:12:00 PM PT): CanofCorn22 (Orange County,CA): Kiley, with the Giants going somewhat cheap and taking Wheeler instead of Matzek, do you see them spending big on July 2? Mateo maybe?
Getting a few of these draft/int'l if A, then B questions. It isn't always that easy, but PIT and SF were long considered likely big money spenders in Latin America this July 2nd, so you can't rule it out. Might still see some teams avoiding going nuts in the 1st, then spending late.
Kiley McDaniel (4:13:06 PM PT): Expected derisive comments about the amount of computers in the Oakland draft room. Harold Reynolds has a 70 restraint tool.
Bryan Smith (4:13:12 PM PT): Kiley: How do you rank all these HS arms personally? KG went Turner, Matzek, Purke, Wheeler, Miller, James, Hobgood, in that order. Anyone you like particularly more or less?
Joe Hamrahi (4:13:15 PM PT): Speaking on behalf of the Royals organization, I can't say I'm surprised. Dayton loves pitching and as an extension, so does JJ. Pitching comes before even elite SSs to them.
Kevin Goldstein (4:13:16 PM PT): Royals take Crow at 12, so there is his home. I think this is a solid pick, neither good nor bad, and about where his talent lies at this point. Interesting to note that in the end they still went with an arm, but maybe Crow was too much to pass on.
Green looks like a good call for Oakland here, provided they're comfortable with the money. If not, Mike Trout could be the surprise pick here.
Kevin Goldstein (4:15:39 PM PT): Will (Boston): How does Drew Storen compare to Brandon Morrow?
On a pure stuff level, Storen is nowhere close to Morrow, not even in the ballpark.
Bryan Smith (4:16:07 PM PT): Good call, KG. Good pick, Oakland.
Kevin Goldstein (4:17:13 PM PT): Oakland takes Grant Green. No surprise here at all, and a nice break for them. Last year, they hoped and prayed that Smoak would drop to them and just missed out, this year Green was the guy they hoped would fall, and he did. I think Oakland got away with a truckload here. Green is a better player than half the guys selected ahead of him.
Kevin Goldstein (4:18:35 PM PT): KC's Sunshine Band (Lawrence): Would Green have cost about the same as what Crow will end up with?
Green will cost more than Crow.
Bryan Smith (4:18:56 PM PT): Mike (Jax, FL): Comments from Joe Jordan about Hobgood - Were there players too expensive for this pick: "This was not a money saver. I knew I would be asked that, because he wasn't a name guy that people kept seeing in the paper. We scouted him all year long, I saw him the first time early in February and saw him two times after that. This had nothing to do with money. Look at what we've done lately. It's who I want and who our staff wants." I tend to believe him. Thoughts?
I respect this quite a bit. Last year, Houston did the same with Castro, and it's looking good. It's ballsy to not blame ownership and stand behind your scouting. We'll see what comes of Hobgood.
Kevin Goldstein (4:19:19 PM PT): Shelby Miller is still on the board here. It's going to be him or a toolsy young outfielder.
Kevin Goldstein (4:20:16 PM PT): Zach (MD): re: Storen "As a reliever, he's not a closer, so you can't take him 10th." What's the difference between a reliever and a closer?
KG: A reliver comes in when your starter is done. A closer gets the last three outs of a one run game.
Kiley McDaniel (4:20:39 PM PT): Bryan: I almost agree with him KG completely, but would drop Purke behind Wheeler, possibly even Miller. Not crazy about that arm action. They're all pretty close, though.
Prepare for inevitable Hochevar/Crow comps from KC fans. Who did you prefer at draft time, KG?
Kevin Goldstein (4:21:39 PM PT): BOOM. Texas was thought to have economy issues, but in the end, they get the best lefty in the draft with Matt Purke. A steal at 14 on pure talent.
Kevin Goldstein (4:22:19 PM PT): I'd take Crow a bit over Hochevar, but I'm a velo whore.
Bryan Smith (4:24:09 PM PT): I would think if KG was projecting Arnett to the Indians before this draft, they have to be quite excited Alex White is available . . .
Kevin Goldstein (4:24:25 PM PT): Will (Boston): Why has Alex White fallen so far? Has something happened recently that's caused him to fall out of the top 14?
Great question. I think it's just how things have fallen, kind of like Smoak last year. Important to note the Cleveland is thinking arm --> college --> power, so he might not fall much further.
Kevin Goldstein (4:25:52 PM PT): Bryan and I both get it right as Cleveland takes Alex White. Looking at where we were 10 hours ago, there must be a ton of high fives right now in Cleveland's draft room -- crazy great get at 15, and he's signable.
Bryan Smith (4:27:34 PM PT): Dug this up from an Unfiltered post I filed in Omaha last year:
"After the game, [Fresno State coach] Mike Batesole said he would be “shocked if Alex White doesn’t go first in the draft next year.” It’s hyperbole, but it’s amazing what White has done. A starter all year, Mike Fox called on White in relief for three consecutive days. He didn’t have his best stuff today, but all weekend we saw a 93-96 mph fastball and a wicked slider. Steven Strasburg is in another tier, which Batesole might not realize, but Alex White certainly joins Grant Green as the guys right behind Strasburg. It will be a good year to draft in the top five, if nothing else."
When the slider is good, like it was last year, he has three nasty pitches, a big frame, and a floor as a legit Major League reliever. Is it bad I like 11-15 more than 2-6?
Kevin Goldstein (4:28:28 PM PT): KC's Sunshine Band (Lawrence): A lot more? Should we be a bit irked that they wouldn't shell out the difference for a spot we need to fill?
KG: Maybe . . .
Bryan Smith (4:28:44 PM PT): Matzek has been well trained by his agents, bringing up that the University of Oregon will let him by a two-way player if the Rockies don't sign him. The Rockies scouting department had to cringe a little bit right there.
Kevin Goldstein (4:29:28 PM PT): I still like Borchering and Brothers here for AZ.
Kevin Goldstein (4:29:55 PM PT): battlekow (Milwaukee): If the Angels, with Yocum on staff, neglect to take Scheppers, that's pretty damning of his shoulder, isn't it?
KG: As they say in Fargo, you betcha, ya.
Kevin Goldstein (4:31:43 PM PT): Arizona takes Borchering at 16. He wants a little more money than this, but nothing crazy. A ton of heat in the last two weeks, and could end up being a great pick here. Really like this pick, John Hart gets it right that the defense could be an issue at third. If Brothers is right as well, there's a certain source out there that I own a beer to.
Joe Hamrahi (4:32:17 PM PT): Quick note to those who worry that Alex White doesn't strike out tons of hitters...he has almost a 2 to 1 groundball to flyball ratio in 2009
Kevin Goldstein (4:33:45 PM PT): joe (NJ): could you give us a quick and dirty explanation of the slot system.
KG: MLB has recommended bonuses (slots) for each of these picks. They are just that, recommendations. There is nothing to hold teams to them, other that a really stupid process one has to go to in order to exceed them. While there once once only a handful of teams who would exceed slot for the guy they want, now the majority of teams ignore the system in one place or the other.
Kevin Goldstein (4:36:01 PM PT): D-backs go with Pollock at 17 -- which for me is a significant surprise. He must of really had a killer workout for them, because other teams that he worked out for this week dinged him a bit.
Marcos calls him a five-tool guy. I have to clean my monitor after spitting my drink on it.
Kevin Goldstein (4:36:55 PM PT): Most think Chad James makes sense for the Marlins here, and for good reason, but I still went with Trout.
Bryan Smith (4:37:38 PM PT): For once, tonight, MLB Network hits the nail on the head with Pollock: this is a Cape Cod League driven pick. Pollock did his job and performed well this season, but he made his name in the Cape. Pollock hit .377/.455/.556 in a league notoriously impossible on hitters. There's not a ton of upside here, but the list of hitters the played that well in the Cape and didn't perform in pro ball is awfully short.
Kevin Goldstein (4:38:49 PM PT): No Scheppers, No Gibson yet.
Kevin Goldstein (4:40:15 PM PT): James could turn out to be better than a lot of the bigger names. More projectable in the frame, velo just as good, lots to like here.
Kevin Goldstein (4:42:35 PM PT): Clueless on the Cardinals right now, but getting the feeling that Toronto might make a splash.
Kevin Goldstein (4:44:08 PM PT): huffmake (toledo ohio ): they are obviously 2 different animals of age, but how does tony sanchez stack up with kyle skipworth from last year
VERY different animals. Sanchez a way better defender, Skipworth seen as a hit first catcher (who hasn't hit).
Bryan Smith (4:44:55 PM PT): battlekow (Milwaukee): Would you have liked Jared Mitchell better than Pollock there? Can Mitchell stick in center?
I would, but you won't find many Mitchell supporters bigger than me. Mitchell could absolutely stick in center on speed alone, but he's going to need some instructions. He's a big slow to react off the bat, so he needs that speed to make up for it. But with the power potential and the baserunning ability, the upside is so much better than Pollock. If you can't tell, Mitchell is one of my favorites in this draft.
Kevin Goldstein (4:45:06 PM PT): Cardinals go slightly over-slot to take Shelby Miller, who is much better than the 19th overall talent. Outstanding selection for the Cardinals.
Kevin Goldstein (4:45:46 PM PT): DOB (Pittsburgh): Any chance of the Rays scooping Gibson if he slips to them?
KG: Highly doubtful -- they're a tools/upside type of team.
Kevin Goldstein (4:46:47 PM PT): dkdc (NYC): Where would you rank Hobgood in the Baltimore pitching hierarchy? I'm guessing he's behind Tillman and Matusz, but is he ahead of Arrieta? Erbe? Patton?
Top of head, I'd put him behind all of them but Patton . . . maybe Erbe depending on the health.
Kevin Goldstein (4:48:07 PM PT): Robert (SF): Kevin, when you say the Cardinals went slightly over slot for Miller, do you mean slightly over for #19 or over for a top pick?
KG: A little of both, he was rumored to be floating a $4 million price tag.
Kevin Goldstein (4:49:56 PM PT): Blue Jays go with Chad Jenkins at 20. Whenever you do a mock, there's always some guy you're gonna be sorry didn't make it, and for me it was Jenkins.
Truly one of the better sinker/groundball guys in the draft . . . Matt Hobgood body. I have neither good or bad things to say about this pick . . . it just kind of makes sense here.
Bryan Smith (4:50:27 PM PT): Tim (Tampa): Is the 2-8 system MLB is showing like the 20-80 scale and basically simplified?
Yes. There were some organizations back in the day, probably when Hart came up, that used 2-8 instead of 20-80. Pretty much the same deal.
Bryan Smith (4:51:12 PM PT): So I'll say it: 11-20 is better than 1-10. The slot system clearly isn't working. MLB needs to do something about this. Sigh.
Kevin Goldstein (4:52:45 PM PT): You gotta think tools here for Houston.
Kevin Goldstein (4:53:44 PM PT): Jio Mier has tools for sure, but I was expecting an outfielder. Still, it's an up the middle player who is going to not only stay at shortstop, but play well there. I just worry that he hits 7th for you.
Kevin Goldstein (4:55:11 PM PT): 20-80 is used by many (and I prefer it) because it allows more granularity (55, 45, etc.)
I think I'm with Bryan on the 11-20 vs 1-10 argument.
Joe Hamrahi (4:55:29 PM PT): Kevin beat me to the punch on Jenkins. He's a heavy groundball pitcher but he's also someone who has trouble against left-handed hitters with a WHIP approaching 1.50 against lefties.
Kiley McDaniel (4:55:55 PM PT): Late word that the Angels are on Mike Trout first, then Randal Grichuk as a hitter at the back-to-back picks.
Kevin Goldstein (4:56:20 PM PT): Irony or ironies: Minnesota really wanted Hobgood here, and their backup was maybe Storen? It IS the Twins, big surprise name coming?
Bryan Smith (4:56:23 PM PT): "Jason (DC): Assuming he gets healthy, how does Gibson compare to Aaron Harang?"
Completely different type of body, is what jumps out to me. Gibson is tall and skinny, and very projectable. Harang is well ... not skinny. I would think Gibson's slider should be better, and Gibson should be a bit less of a flyball pitcher. I gotta think there's a better comparison available.
Kevin Goldstein (4:56:54 PM PT): Angels absolutely LOVE Trout -- worst-kept secret around. Grichuk is a new name attached to them.
Kiley McDaniel (4:57:14 PM PT): I'm with both of you on the 11-20 vs 1-10 and 20-80 vs 2-8 arguments. Frank Marcos thinks all of my opinions are fantastic.
Kevin Goldstein (4:58:07 PM PT): Twins take Gibson -- that almost makes too much sense and I'm sorry I didn't think of it. Outstanding value with this pick and potentially a real coup for them.
Kevin Goldstein (4:59:38 PM PT): White Sox looking at upside, mostly in the world of up the middle players.
Kiley McDaniel (5:01:57 PM PT): Jeff 33 (DC): Is Gibson the next addition to the Twins' Brad Radke Clone Army?
I would make a Star Wars joke here, but I'm not a fanatic. Suggest some in the comments!
MIN goes kinda off the board again and I bet this one works out too. They're the commish's office example (successful, not over-slot) of how to draft.
Bryan Smith (5:01:58 PM PT): One of the great things about being at BP is having great help just a few keyboard clicks away. I asked Rany, who did his fantastic series on draft history, if he remembers a draft that was better 11-20 than 1-10. Rany jumped into action for me, and found just one in 15 years: 2002.
Top Ten: B.J. Upton, Zack Greinke, Prince Fielder, Jeff Francis.
11-20: Hermida, Joe Saunders, Scott Kazmir, Nick Swisher, Cole Hamels, James Loney, Denard Span.
The best example is 1994, where Garciaparra, Konerko and Varitek went 12-14. Needless to say, the top 10 that boasted Paul Wilson, Ben Grieve, Todd Walker and Jaret Wright wasn't as good.
Kevin Goldstein (5:02:45 PM PT): White Sox take Jared Mitchell from LSU. That's upside, and that's up the middle. You just watch his video and you'd think he was a top 10 guy. Love, love, love this pick.
Kevin Goldstein (5:03:52 PM PT): Anyone surprised that Brothers is still on the board? Might also be a good name for the Angels other pick.
Bryan Smith (5:05:21 PM PT): I'm with KG: the White Sox did a fantastic job with that pick. Between Beckham, Danks and Mitchell, this team is being proactive about rebuilding their farm system. Credit where credit is due.
Kiley McDaniel (5:05:23 PM PT): Who wouldn't love to see Carl Crawford, Jared Mitchell, Donavan Tate and other uber-athletes do some sort of combine-style competitions at the All-Star/Future's game. Let Reyes run on Ankiel's arm...I mean who wouldn't watch that?
Kevin Goldsteni (5:06:09 PM PT): XM time.
Kevin Goldstein (5:06:42 PM PT): Mad props to Kiley as Angels take Grichuk.
Bryan Smith (5:08:36 PM PT): strupp (Madison): Mitchell is a High School player minus 3 years of development time, right?
Find me a high schooler in this draft with patience as good as his, and with baserunning as polished as his. He didn't waste his three years -- he's leaving LSU a much better player than when he arrived in Baton Rouge.
Joe Hamrahi (5:11:38 PM PT): Statistically though, Jared Mitchell looks like he can still improve. While he does walk and has great speed, his contact rate was below 70% for a good portion of the year...not an elite number for a first round pick. But imagine if he puts the bat on the ball more.
Kevin Goldstein (5:11:56 PM PT): Angels take Trout with pick number two -- to quote Tenacious D -- that's bleepin' teamwork!.
Kevin Goldstein (5:13:04 PM PT): Bryan is right, Mitchell is better, as he played less of a role on the football team as his football career wore on.
Kiley McDaniel (5:13:05 PM PT): I accept those props, thanks. My source thought Trout was ahead of Grichuk, but, well they both went to the Angels.
Maybe Eddie Bane wanted Trout to get his Brady Quinn moment with Jonathan Mayo first. That was a little awkward to watch, but great payoff right afterwards for Trout.
Bryan Smith (5:13:33 PM PT): doitright25 (Chicago): What do you think about Ian Krol? How did his not pitching his Sr. year affect his draft status? What can a HS pitcher do if something like this happens? Private Workouts? I know the college guys get to go play independent ball but what happens to a kid like Krol?
Oh, let's be honest: it was huge. To answer your latter question, the answer is that high school players can go to college. There's a mighty fine list of people that weren't happy with their draft position after high school and spent three years proving scouts wrong and getting better. I think Krol goes to college (he's committed to Arizona), and I think he has a real chance to be a factor in 2012's first round.
Kevin Goldstein (5:14:12 PM PT): My girlfriend, Margaret, notes that Mike Trout has "good skin." That's the kind of hardcore analysis you're not going to find anywhere else.
Bryan Smith (5:15:09 PM PT): "When you look back at the 2009 draft, what are you going to remember?"
Do MLB Network broadcasters want to be asking this?
Kevin Goldstein (5:15:27 PM PT): Bryan is totally right about Krol. Everyone thinks he's going to school, and thinks he should.
Baffled by Milwaukee here. With Brett Lawrie already off catcher, do they take another one?
Kevin Goldstein (5:17:12 PM PT): Brewers take Eric Arnett at 26. Absolutely solid pick for the Brewers. He's Harold Reynolds #2 pitcher on video, for whatever that's worth. If he had a longer track record, he could have gone higher and this is a solid selection.
Kevin Goldstein (5:19:55 PM PT): SEA could be a great landing spot for Scheppers.
Bryan Smith (5:20:03 PM PT): I heard some tout Arnett for not having a lot of mileage on his arm, but he's actually a player whose workload worries me quite a bit. Arnett pitched 66 innings his sophomore season, and jumped up to 108 this season. That wouldn't be so bad by itself, but he threw 140 pitches against Purdue, then 128 against Northwestern, then sat out for the last weekend series of the year. He's a great arm, but I'm doing a lot of medical work before I sign him.
Kevin Goldstein (5:21:56 PM PT): Mariners take Nick Franklin, a fast-rising prep shortstop from Florida. It's a surprise to see him get into the first round. He's solid across the board but spectacular nowhere. Just seems like a second-division starter to me.
Kevin Goldstein (5:22:31 PM PT): Red Sox nation awaits with baited breath. I still like Stassi here.
Bryan Smith (5:22:51 PM PT): There is no way that Rex Brothers makes it past the Red Sox and the Yankees, right?
Kevin Goldstein (5:23:53 PM PT): Norman (San Jose): how far will Tanner Scheppers fall?
KG: That's the big story right now. I honestly have no idea.
Kiley McDaniel (5:24:50 PM PT): Yankees really liked Daniel Schlereth last year and like Brothers this year, a similar type of arm. They also have been heavily tied to Heathcott, as KG pegged in the mock, and California OF Brett Jackson. I'd expect Stassi to BOS and Heathcott to NYY. Either team could peg Brothers, though.
Kevin Goldstein (5:24:56 PM PT): Brothers is DEFINITELY in the Yankees mix, along with Brett Jackson and Slade Heathcott.
Kevin Goldstein (5:26:06 PM PT): There's Fuentes to Boston. If you got all the way through my mock this morning, Fuentes was the guy with the most helium in the draft due to some monster private workouts. I like this pick, but I can be a sucker for tools.
Kiley McDaniel (5:28:00 PM PT): CAN be a sucker for tools? What about your Captain Upside outfit? The cape is glorious.
Kevin Goldstein (5:28:13 PM PT): Some might be surprised to see Tim Wheeler on the board, but don't be. He gets a lot of attention for having good power and speed numbers, but he's a 50-55 runner with just average power. He's not toolsy, just solid, and that's why he''s still on the board.
Kevin Goldstein (5:28:54 PM PT): I traded in the Captain Upside uniform for my new shiny King Ceiling crown.
Kevin Goldstein (5:30:36 PM PT): 38 hours ago, a little bird told me that the Yankees liked Heathcott, period. More than even a signability guy who might fall. He's going to require patience, but the upside is significant.
Kiley McDaniel (5:30:52 PM PT): DOB (Pittsburgh): Tommy Joseph to the Rays, or Wil Myers?
Been told Myers is out of play for the Rays and Joseph is very much in play.
KG, does Scheppers qualify as tools/upside for Rays, or too expensive?
Bryan Smith (5:32:34 PM PT): I'd like Captain Upside better than Velocity Whore on my resume.
Kevin Goldstein (5:33:52 PM PT): Stassi or Myers here for TB?
Kevin Goldstein (5:35:04 PM PT): High School athlete for the Rays (big shocker) with Levon Washington -- a burner high school infielder.
Kiley McDaniel (5:35:58 PM PT): Love me some fast-twitch athletes. Maybe a little high for LeVon Washington, but really like the pick for the Rays here. A Rays type of player.
Kevin Goldstein (5:36:43 PM PT): Yankfan21 (Work - still...): So, Heathcott? With Scheppers and Rex Brothers on the board, I am completely underwhelmed and under impressed. Any reason I should not be?
KG: I'd be pretty happy. I think both of those pitchers are relievers in the end. You can find relievers at lot easier than you can find tools like Heathcott.
Kevin Goldstein (5:38:30 PM PT): Washington is a surprise Boras guy in the first.
Kevin Goldstein (5:40:14 PM PT): Cubs take Brett Jackson from Cal, who seemed to be in the mix for every team in the 20s. He's either a star or the next Tyler Colvin. That's really the range here as a risk/upside college guy.
Bryan Smith (5:40:59 PM PT): Brett Jackson is sort of like how KG described Wheeler -- he gets a lot of power-speed credit, but in two years, he hasn't hit more than eight home runs or stolen more than 12 bases in a season. Plus, I've heard a lot of question marks about his ability to stay in center. I think there's a pretty decent chance the Cubs just drafted a fourth outfielder.
Kevin Goldstein (5:41:35 PM PT): Johnny (IL): I'm a Cub fan who hates Jackson. Am I screwed?
Perfectly fine pick there that fits in well with his talent. I love the commentators telling us he's a hitter when that's actually his big issue. "It can be corrected" I'm told, which is always funny.
Kevin Goldstein (5:42:18 PM PT): Well, either Scheppers or Brothers is out of the first round, maybe both, but they're both nice fits for Colorado here.
Bryan Smith (5:42:43 PM PT): You have to think signability is important for the Rockies here after drafting Matzek earlier in the first round. That certainly opens a lot of possibilities out there.
Joe Hamrahi (5:43:27 PM PT): I agree Bryan. I watched his numbers quite closely this year, and his lack of power, combined with a low contact rate and limited ability against LHP, makes me think the Cubs could have done better at this spot.
Kevin Goldstein (5:44:19 PM PT): The first round ends with Tim Wheeler from Sac State. We've already talked about this. We have 15 minutes break, and frankly I need it, but we'll be with you until pick 111 tonight.
Bryan Smith (5:49:53 PM PT): David (Sonoma State University, CA): KG,can you give us a quick "best available" list?
I'll let Kevin enjoy his break. Here are the guys in KG's top 32 that did not go in the top 32: 6. Tanner Scheppers, 18. Everett Williams, 19. Rex Brothers, 24, Max Stassi, 28. David Renfroe, 29. Garrett Gould, 31. James Paxton.
Kevin Goldstein (5:53:57 PM PT): Scheppers really shocks me, and Brothers still around is a big surprise. I'm guessing Paxton's combination of bad games and the Boras factor really hurts him. Renfroe is another signability guy, but I'm batting Williams, Stassi and Gould all go early in the sandwich round.
Kevin Goldstein (5:55:32 PM PT): mattymatty (Philly): Any chance Max Stassi is still there at 77 for Boston?
I don't think he gets past the next ten picks.
Bryan Smith (5:56:25 PM PT): It should be noted that the first three teams choosing in the supplemental round have all already drafted twice: Seattle, Colorado, Arizona. It would be a stretch to think that Scheppers goes to any of those places, as he probably holds a price tag.
I wonder if Los Angeles at 36 is where we see the fall end. I'm also guessing the White Sox at 38 are hoping the Rex Brothers fall continues. Didn't they just call up a college lefty from a small(er) school with big-time stuff?
Kevin Goldstein (5:56:31 PM PT): Mike (Jax, FL): Where do you see Matt Davidson and Poythress going? Any chance either falls out of the comp round?
KG: Davidson had a lot of first-round heat a week or two ago, but nobody mentioned him in the last couple of days. I think Poythress is going soon.
Kevin Goldstein (5:58:42 PM PT): First big pick coming is Dodgers at 36 with their first pick in the draft. Chances are they'll go best available player route, and I wouldn't be surprised if they're using the break to figure out Scheppers' price tag at this point.
Bryan Smith (6:00:08 PM PT): Can I nominate Stouffer's Mac and Cheese as the official between rounds meal of Baseball Prospectus?
Kevin Goldstein (6:00:14 PM PT): I'm with you on Scheppers Bryan, but only maybe with you on the White Sox piece. They definitely were not on Brothers in the first round, but things might change at 38.
Kevin Goldstein (6:01:11 PM PT): nickwynne (Bakersfield, CA): Could Kipnis be there (again) for the Pads at 52? Would he be a good call there, or will they be looking for pitching?
I like Kipnis for anyone who takes him from here on out. There's some thought of trying him at second base, and he's a guy with a lot of ways to beat you.
Kevin Goldstein (6:01:53 PM PT): I'm having leftover jambalaya myself.
Bryan Smith (6:02:40 PM PT): "davidsk (Cerritos): Any indication of when Daniel Bibona will be drafted? Will he go in the top 3 rounds? Polished arm, but I'm guessing his ceiling isn't very high."
Nope, we aren't hearing Bibona's name today. The college class is just too deep. Bibona is about 84-87 with the fastball, and while he has the pitchability factor, his stuff just doesn't really profile past AA ball. He could even fall to day 3, although that's an uninformed guess if nothing else.
Bryan Smith (6:07:39 PM PT): If the Rockies can get Matzek and Brothers done, they have a ridiculous amount of young lefties in that system. Friedrich is dealing in the Minors, and these draftees both have great stuff. In a park where good stuff is the only answer, the Rockies are getting it done through the draft.
Bryan Smith (6:09:28 PM PT): Logan White is certainly my favorite character around the draft, because he's always there to throw a surprise. I never understood the people that thought of Aaron Miller as an outfielder -- he could never hit lefties, he had too long a swing, etc. But as a pitcher he caught on quickly, and he has a real nice chance to succeed. White is a sucker for lefties with good stuff, as Elbert and Kershaw and James Adkins and plenty of others could tell you.
Bryan Smith (6:11:16 PM PT): parish4567 (california): Where do you see Scott Bittle going, if at all?
Probably a couple rounds before where Alex Wilson last year. There's a huge medical red flag with Bittle, but he's a senior that was twice one of the 3 most dominant pitchers in the nation when he pitched. That's going to win a lot of teams over.
Kevin Goldstein (6:13:33 PM PT): They're picking fast here, and a few minutes of radio and you miss a lot. Phelgly goes higher than expected to the White Sox -- but it only takes one team to believe in a guy. and it's interesting picks around him. If you don't think the Blue Jays are in a new era, they take the Boras client, James Paxton, at 37, while the other Boras dropper, Kentrail Davis, goes to Milwaukee at 39 -- he could be a tough sign.
Bryan Smith (6:16:12 PM PT): Phegley and Davis were guys we thought we dropping, not going up draft boards. I like the Davis pick better, as he offers a little more upside. I know we advocate drafting best player available first and foremost: but with Tyler Flowers in the system, is Phegley necessary? I guess if you have two bad defensive catchers you just hope that one ends up staying at the position?
Kevin Goldstein (6:16:17 PM PT): Always looking for value, the Angels take Tyler Skaggs at 40. He's a guy a lot of people saw at a first-round pick coming into the year, but didn't live up to expectations.
Kevin Goldstein (6:17:14 PM PT): I'm not necessarily defending the pick, but maybe the White Sox just like the bat enough and will put him at first? Still seems high to me.
Bryan Smith (6:17:53 PM PT): In this run, we missed mentioning that the rumored pre-draft deal between Steven Baron and the Mariners with the 33rd pick looks to have been fact. He led off the supplemental first, and you have to just have faith in Jack Z there. There's a pretty wide consensus that at least two prep catchers were better players, but Jack Z has been right where we've been wrong before.
Kevin Goldstein (6:18:32 PM PT): Chris Owings (ARZ @ 41) is one of the better hitting middle infielders among the prep players, the fact that he's probably not a shortstop in the end is why he wasn't in the first round.
Bryan Smith (6:19:34 PM PT): Big Oklahoma right-hander Garrett Richards goes 41 to the Angels. I didn't hear him this high, and thought he might go late tonight or early tomorrow. He's got very good stuff, having gone up to 96 in the past. But he doesn't have much of an idea where it's going, and few see him as more than a reliever in the end.
That said, I really like the stuff. He's the type of pick I like in the fourth round, but not so much at 41, if that makes sense.
Bryan Smith (6:20:41 PM PT): After hearing so much about Studio 42 during the first round, you'd think I could remember the number. Richards went 42nd.
Kevin Goldstein (6:22:10 PM PT): Tanner Scheppers gets popped at 44 -- Gee, the Rangers sure like them some power arms.
Kevin Goldstein (6:23:42 PM PT): Man, Arizona is cleaning up. Mike Belfiore of Boston College racked up a crazy pitch count in that crazy Boston Collge/Texas regional game, but he was in some first-round mixes towards the end.
Joe Hamrahi (6:25:53 PM PT): We liked Belfiore up here in the East, but again, is he destined to be just a reliever, KG?
Kevin Goldstein (6:26:30 PM PT): Brewers get Kyle Heckathorn at 47, another guy with first-round aspirations. Looked like a first-round pick a month ago, but bad body and inability to dominate at a school like Kennesaw State hurt him.
Bryan Smith (6:26:59 PM PT): Bashore, 46 to the Twins, was one player I would have had in my draft top 50. He came up in my conversation with Vanderbilt's Corbin today, whose Commodores ended Bashore's career at Indiana. The report was very good: solid arm action, "snap dragon curveball".
He doesn't have much of a change, but he was up to 95 a couple times this spring. Some good Midwest arms to Minnesota today.
Kevin Goldstein (6:30:37 PM PT): Kobernus is a nice pick at 50 with Washington. He's the fastest player at Cal (faster than Brett Jackson) and has a nice line drive bat, but little power.
Kevin Goldstein (6:31:31 PM PT): The Mariners are thrilled to get Georgia slugger Rich Poythress in the beginning of the second round, as he was in their mix at the end of the first.
Bryan Smith (6:32:55 PM PT): Poythress is a fantastic pick, though there's plenty that wonder if the power transfers to a wood bat. Jack Z knows power, as he's been drafting it for 10 years, so that's a good sign.
Kevin Goldstein (6:33:23 PM PT): Padres have the best pick in the round by a mile with EVerett Williams, the Texas outfielder who many saw as having first-round tools. His size worked against him in the end, but who thought the Pads would begin the draft with a pair of high risk/high upside guys.
Kevin Goldstein (6:34:43 PM PT): Theoretically looking to maybe spend money later, Victor Black and Brooks Pounders don't exactly inspire Pirates fans after the Sanchez pick. They're both raw hard-throwers, but not exactly slot busters.
Bryan Smith (6:34:51 PM PT): One we missed during the run there was the Pirates taking Victor Black to end the Supplemental First round. I'm just not in the Black camp, especially if Pittsburgh has any hope in keeping him as a starter. This is a guy that was 12-15, 4.64 ERA during three seasons at Dallas Baptist, and while he's mid 90s with an occasional plus curve, he rarely has an idea where it's going. It looked like it might be getting better this season, but Black's numbers took a hard left turn in his final four starts: 27 hits, 22 strikeouts, 16 walks, 7.36 ERA in 22 innings.
Kevin Goldstein (6:36:17 PM PT): Really like the selection of Mychal Givens at 54 by the Orioles, a two-way star who was announced as a pitcher. He has a lot a velocity, but his arm angle and action is a bit kooky. Still, he dropped more because he didn't do as well as expected as opposed to him suddenly not being good.
Bryan Smith (6:36:22 PM PT): I think there's better relievers available than Blake Smith, who got popped by the Dodgers. Smith has a nice, loose arm, but there's better and more proven arms available, in my opinion.
Kevin Goldstein (6:38:48 PM PT): Blake Smith is an interesting pick at 56 as a pure arm strength guy to the Dodgers. His numbers at Cal are downright bad, but he can bring it.
Kevin Goldstein (6:41:01 PM PT): Andy Oliver finally goes off the board to Detroit at 58. He has more upside than that, but was surprising bad this year -- maybe his battle with the ncaa was a distraction.
Bryan Smith (6:42:23 PM PT): I think it was just that, Kevin. Oliver has really good stuff, and a year ago, he was getting some consideration as a potential top ten guy. He has better stuff than Mike Minor, so that could be a really good pick. I wonder how Boras will deal with Oliver -- I'm guessing after his troubles with the NCAA, asking for more than slot is out the window.
Kevin Goldstein (6:42:45 PM PT): Trayce Thompson to the White Sox in the second round is a fascinating pick. His father was the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft this year, and his upside ranks with anyone in the draft based on his athleticism, but he's still VERY VERY RAW and thinks he can turn into an elite pick with three years at UCLA.
Kevin Goldstein (6:45:34 PM PT): The Indians take a KG fave in Jason Kipnis, and don't be shocked if they try him at second base.
Bryan Smith (6:45:45 PM PT): Tommy Mendonca of Fresno State goes 62 to Texas, and he's a real interesting player. Probably a 60-65 defender at third base, Mendonca made jaw-dropping play after play last season at Fresno State. As a hitter, he's a good fastball hitter, and he's a good bet to swing at every first-pitch fastball he sees. Breaking pitches often leave him looking bad, though, so there's a lot of work to be done.
Kevin Goldstein (6:46:22 PM PT): cochab (Chicago): Kevin, I know you were just trying to rationalize the Phegley pick when you said maybe they like him at first. If that was the case, should they have gone with Poythress?
Good point. I don't like the pick especially, as much as I was just trying to understand it.
Bryan Smith (6:47:34 PM PT): Arizona is going college-heavy, with Eric Smith of Rhode Island and Marc Krauss of Ohio representing their 60 and 64th picks, respectively. Krauss was a solid Cape guy and has some fantastic patience. Smith put himself on the map by touching 95 when beating Miami earlier this season.
Kevin Goldstein (6:47:51 PM PT): The Dodgers take Garret Gould in the second round and ends the announcement by calling him very lucky. In reality, L.A. is lucky he was still on the board and it's a great pick.
Kevin Goldstein (6:50:02 PM PT): Wendy (Madrid): KG: What??? Did I read that correctly? Thompson's father was the first pick in the NBA this year? Sure about that?
Hey, I'm loopy. His dad is Mychal Thompson.
Bryan Smith (6:50:41 PM PT): nickwynne (Bakersfield, CA): Any chance we can get another "Best Available" list?
Ask and you shall receive. Sorry if any of these got picked. 24. Max Stassi, 28. David Renfroe, 34. Wil Myers, 43. Sam Dyson, 45. Brian Goodwin, 47. Brody Colvin, 49. Chris Dominguez, 50. Jeff Malm.
Kevin Goldstein (6:51:31 PM PT): One gets the feeling that when Robert Stock enrolled at SoCal, he envisioned being a top ten pick this year. He just never shined at that level, and going in the second round to St. Louis is even surprisingly high.
Bryan Smith (6:52:28 PM PT): The Robert Stock story continues, as he goes 67 to the Cardinals. Stock left high school a year earlier to get a jump start on USC. People are going to really question if it was in his best interest, as he probably would have been a first rounder after his senior high school season. I like Stock a lot better as a pitcher than a catcher, as he has really not progressed with the bat in 3 years. But the Cardinals announced him as a catcher, so they're going down that road first.
Kevin Goldstein (6:53:46 PM PT): Phil S. (NJ): Kevin, why are teams avoiding Stassi?
KG: At this point, I just don't know, but I'm trying to figure that out.
Kevin Goldstein (6:54:38 PM PT): The Twins take another advanced college guy with Billy Bullock, who could move very quickly out of the pen, but tops out as an 8th-inning guy.
Bryan Smith (6:55:34 PM PT): The Twins nab Billy Bullock from Florida at 70, and he really blossomed this season as the Gators closer. Bullock has great size at 6-6, and he was up to 96 mph this season. You wonder if the Twins will go the Carlos Gutierrez path and try starting again, but if not, he could be one of the first non-Strasburg players in this class to the Major Leagues.
Bryan Smith (6:56:02 PM PT): Great minds thinking alike here, huh people? KG's apparently the quicker typer.
Kevin Goldstein (6:58:22 PM PT): The Mets wake up from their nearly four hour nap and take Steven Matz, a solid lefty from Long Island with their fist pick at #72. John Franco making the pick with his accent was especially fitting. Not a sexy, exciting pick, but he belonged around here.
Kevin Goldstein (7:00:18 PM PT): Conjunction (Dallas): Hey, guys! Appreciate you staying up with us. Which draft do you like better to this point; the Rangers' or the Rockies'?
KG: I actually am not crazy about the Mendonca pick in the second, but they got two upper-echelon talents with their first two picks, and it's hard to argue with that.
Bryan Smith (7:03:11 PM PT): mikeel (Escondido, CA): Steven Strasburg is a #1 starter.
I filled in the blank for you.
Kevin Goldstein (7:04:33 PM PT): The Phillies finally pick and no surprise, take an athlete with California prep outfielder Kelly Dugan. His father is a comedic character actor of some reknown:
http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0240797/
Bryan Smith (7:05:08 PM PT): That's Alex Wilson going to the Red Sox at 77, and that's a pretty good pick. Wilson was sort of all over draft boards this season, with the height of his volatility coming in March when he was dominating as a starter. He looked good as a reliever with the Aggies, but he definitely fell off a little bit. I think the Red Sox have him take it easy this year, but think about moving him to the rotation again next year.
Bryan Smith (7:07:52 PM PT): Cubs take a chance on D.J. LeMahieu from LSU at 79. This is sort of a similar pick to Ryan Flaherty last year -- a college shortstop, but no one is quite sure what position he ends up at as a pro. We'll see if he's tough to sign, but if he sticks in the middle infield, he's always had a lot of potential.
Also, note: the Hendry and Paul Mainieri connection continues. People always think the Cubs like Notre Dame --- not so, it's just he seems to trust his best friend on draft day.
Kevin Goldstein (7:08:25 PM PT): Very surprised to see D.J. Lemahieu go in the second round. Just a guy with little upside, who already had to slide from shortstop to second base while still in college.
Kevin Goldstein (7:15:08 PM PT): Third round kicks off with Washington taking Georgia ace Trevor Holder, a low risk/low upside type who should be a cheap sign as a college senior.
Bryan Smith (7:15:53 PM PT): To lead off the third round, the Nationals took Trevor Holder from the University of Georgia. This is just, kind of a weird pick. Holder doesn't have very good stuff, and I just don't see him being a viable Major Leaguer. There's about 50 guys with better stuff available, which tells you that this is going to be a real cheap sign. They need it with Strasburg pushing the budget hard.
Kevin Goldstein (7:16:32 PM PT): Seattle takes another Tar Heel with Kyle Seager, who can play second or third and hit a bit.
Bryan Smith (7:17:38 PM PT): Touched on Seager earlier -- he's just not going to hit for power, so he's pretty stuck at second. But he's got good patience and is going to hit for contact.
Kevin Goldstein (7:21:31 PM PT): Louisville third baseman Chris Dominguez finally gets taken to the Giants in the third round. Huge arm, huge power, gonna strike out a ton. Reminds some of Richie Sexson with 3B skills.
Bryan Smith (7:22:05 PM PT): I don't know, if I'm the Orioles, I'm a lot more interested in high school slugger Jeff Malm than I am Tyler Townsend, college numbers be damned. The Orioles draft today has been strange -- their budget is clearly being impacted by the economy.
Kevin Goldstein (7:26:38 PM PT): Ben Paulsen from Clemson goes #90 to Colorado. Strange fit for Colorado as a really nice hitter who didn't go higher because of a lack of power.
Bryan Smith (7:26:53 PM PT): I don't know, I'm not sure I don't like Wade Gaynor (89, DET) more than Chris Dominguez. You're talking about a similar big body, and a similar number of home runs this year. But Gaynor has more athleticism, and better contact skills. Dominguez has produced more in the last 3 seasons, but based on what they showed this spring, I think the Tigers outdrafted the Giants.
Kevin Goldstein (7:28:09 PM PT): Kansas City takes Wil Myers in the 3rd round, and some people thought he was in KC's mix with their first-round pick at 12. He wants first round money, and it's doubtful that KC would take him this high without thinking they could work something out.
Kevin Goldstein (7:29:07 PM PT): Oakland finally picks again with Justin Marks, Louisville's ace. Not a huge talent, but solid stuff and lots of pitchability.
Bryan Smith (7:32:14 PM PT): Joe Gardner gets good tilt on his fastball, and gives the Indians another big right-handed pitcher.
Kevin Goldstein (7:33:26 PM PT): The Dodgers love bloodlines, and use their third round pick on Brett Wallach, a California Juco righty, and the son of Tim.
Bryan Smith (7:36:43 PM PT): When Blake Smith was drafted, I said there were relievers that were more proven available, and relievers with better arms. Cardinals third rounder Joe Kelly is the latter.
Kevin Goldstein (7:39:58 PM PT): Twins third-round selection Ben Tootle is another guy who began the year as a possible first-round talent, but fell hard as the season wore on as his velocity faltered and there were some injury concerns.
Bryan Smith (7:40:24 PM PT): Ben Tootle is a lot like Luke Burnett a year ago. Tootle was THE arm to watch in the Cape Cod League, showing fantastic stuff with every outing. But he was a bit of a mess this spring, with a lot of walks, and some medical issues. Unlike Burnett, his stuff didn't take a huge decline, so that's why we see him here in the 3rd.
Bryan Smith (7:41:31 PM PT): buffum (Austin TX): I have read that the Indians are looking to slot Alex White into the bullpen, seeing him aw a back-end power arm. Isn't this a tremendous waste of the resource? I am FAR less excited by this pick if this is accurate: hoping for a dollar for a cheap burger, we found a twenty ... and bought a cheap burger with it.
That is where a lot of people thought he would end up, but I have to think it's a mistake to do this out of the block. His slider was so good in his last outing! I agree with you guys writing in -- no reason for the Indians to rush there.
Bryan Smith (7:42:24 PM PT): Bryan Morgado is sort of born from the same thinking that Dexter Carter was last year for the White Sox. Good stuff, sort of a mess in college, but the Sox are betting they can harness it.
Kevin Goldstein (7:43:57 PM PT): Blue Jays 3rd-round pick Jake Marisnick has a first-round body and tools, but he just never played well for scouts all year. He's your classic steal or bust kind of selection, and shows that this ain't your daddy's Blue Jays anymore.
Kevin Goldstein (7:44:37 PM PT): Still baffled as to why Max Stassi is still on the board, but most everyone who knows is still working.
Bryan Smith (7:45:47 PM PT): Josh Prince, to the Milwaukee Brewers, was an Augie Garrido recruit at Texas a couple years ago. He played well his freshman season, but not enough, and as a result transferred to Tulane. A bad sophomore season regressed a lot of expectations, but Prince had a nice year. He's patient, a good baserunner, and he could stick at shortstop. I didn't think he'd go this high, but I kind of like it.
Kevin Goldstein (7:46:31 PM PT): The Phillies do take a signability guy in the third inning with ultra-athletic Kyrell Hudson, a high school centerfielder from Washington. His speed and arm both rank as 60-70 on the scouting scale.
Kevin Goldstein (7:47:22 PM PT): David Renfroe was rumored to possibly go in the first round to Boston, but they find him in the third and will now decide if they want to meet his $3 million price tag.
Bryan Smith (7:50:55 PM PT): Angels wrapped up their day with Josh Spence from Arizona State. He was great this season for the Sun Devils, but he doesn't come with very much raw stuff. Watched him pitch in the Super Regional, and he throws from every arm angle imaginable. He's impossible on left-handers, and I can't help think of DRay Herrera here. But yeah, a Major League starter, he is not.
Kevin Goldstein (7:52:37 PM PT): Day one of the draft wraps up with pick 111 to the Astros, who pick Jon Meyer, a solid switch-hitting 3B from Simi Valley HS.
We're going to go digest all of this and we'll continue to roundtable tomorrow for through the first round ten. Less big names then, so I'll try to focus more on your questions tomorrow.
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