Biographical

Portrait of Ervin Santana

Ervin Santana PTwins

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2018 Projections (Rest of Season Projections - seasonal age 35)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
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Birth Date12-12-1982
Height6' 2"
Weight175 lbs
Age35 years, 7 months, 9 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
3.92014
0.22015
2.72016
3.82017
0.22018
+proj
WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA..
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR oppTAv PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP TAv WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA- WARP
2005 ANA MLB 23 23 133.7 12 8 0 139 47 99 17 .269 96 9.4 3.2 1.1 6.7 36% .296 .275 1.39 4.45 4.65 96 4.26 91.7 1.9
2006 ANA MLB 33 33 204.0 16 8 0 181 70 141 21 .260 102 8.0 3.1 0.9 6.2 39% .265 .241 1.23 4.33 4.28 100 4.39 89.3 3.2
2007 ANA MLB 28 26 150.0 7 14 0 174 58 126 26 .265 102 10.4 3.5 1.6 7.6 37% .324 .288 1.55 5.19 5.76 98 5.05 104.5 1.1
2008 ANA MLB 32 32 219.0 16 7 0 198 47 214 23 .261 103 8.1 1.9 0.9 8.8 40% .289 .229 1.12 3.32 3.49 76 2.73 58.3 6.8
2009 ANA MLB 24 23 139.7 8 8 0 159 47 107 24 .262 104 10.2 3.0 1.5 6.9 40% .318 .278 1.47 5.06 5.03 113 6.11 131.1 -0.9
2010 ANA MLB 33 33 222.7 17 10 0 221 73 169 27 .258 101 8.9 3.0 1.1 6.8 37% .289 .268 1.32 4.25 3.92 106 4.24 95.7 2.6
2011 ANA MLB 33 33 228.7 11 12 0 207 72 178 26 .263 97 8.1 2.8 1.0 7.0 45% .272 .253 1.22 4.03 3.38 99 3.68 85.6 3.7
2012 ANA MLB 30 30 178.0 9 13 0 165 61 133 39 .262 97 8.3 3.1 2.0 6.7 45% .241 .283 1.27 5.57 5.16 115 5.33 122.1 -0.3
2013 KCA MLB 32 32 211.0 9 10 0 190 51 161 26 .268 100 8.1 2.2 1.1 6.9 47% .267 .246 1.14 3.96 3.24 97 3.51 84.1 3.7
2014 ATL MLB 31 31 196.0 14 10 0 193 63 179 16 .257 95 8.9 2.9 0.7 8.2 45% .319 .272 1.31 3.36 3.95 94 3.20 78.5 3.9
2015 MIN MLB 17 17 108.0 7 5 0 104 36 82 12 .262 104 8.7 3.0 1.0 6.8 43% .285 .254 1.30 4.13 4.00 112 4.93 115.2 0.2
2016 MIN MLB 30 30 181.3 7 11 0 168 53 149 19 .258 107 8.3 2.6 0.9 7.4 44% .285 .237 1.22 3.76 3.38 97 4.04 89.4 2.7
2017 MIN MLB 33 33 211.3 16 8 0 177 61 167 31 .260 109 7.5 2.6 1.3 7.1 43% .245 .230 1.13 4.44 3.28 105 3.94 83.9 3.8
CareerMLB3793762383.3149124022767391905307.2621018.62.81.27.242%.282.2571.274.244.021004.2093.331.0

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR oppTAv PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP TAv WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA-
2001 ORM Rk 4 4 18.7 2 1 0 19 12 22 1 .000 9.1 5.8 0.5 10.6 0% -.500 .000 1.66 4.73 7.70 0 0.00 0.0
2002 CDR A 27 27 147.0 14 8 0 133 48 146 10 .000 8.1 2.9 0.6 8.9 0% .301 .000 1.23 3.23 4.16 0 0.00 0.0
2003 RCU A+ 20 20 124.7 10 2 0 98 36 130 9 .000 7.1 2.6 0.6 9.4 0% .271 .000 1.07 3.61 2.53 0 0.00 0.0
2003 ARK AA 6 6 29.7 1 1 0 23 12 23 4 .000 7.0 3.6 1.2 7.0 0% .229 .000 1.18 5.13 3.94 0 0.00 0.0
2004 ARK AA 8 8 43.7 2 1 0 41 18 48 3 .000 8.4 3.7 0.6 9.9 0% .319 .000 1.35 3.62 3.30 0 0.00 0.0
2005 ANA MLB 23 23 133.7 12 8 0 139 47 99 17 .269 96 9.4 3.2 1.1 6.7 36% .296 .275 1.39 4.45 4.65 96 4.26 91.7
2005 ARK AA 7 7 39.0 5 1 0 34 15 32 2 .257 91 7.8 3.5 0.5 7.4 36% .288 .217 1.26 3.60 2.31 98 4.32 99.2
2005 SLC AAA 3 3 19.3 1 0 0 19 2 17 2 .286 75 8.9 0.9 0.9 7.9 35% .327 .254 1.09 3.71 4.20 89 4.06 96.1
2006 ANA MLB 33 33 204.0 16 8 0 181 70 141 21 .260 102 8.0 3.1 0.9 6.2 39% .265 .241 1.23 4.33 4.28 100 4.39 89.3
2007 ANA MLB 28 26 150.0 7 14 0 174 58 126 26 .265 102 10.4 3.5 1.6 7.6 37% .324 .288 1.55 5.19 5.76 98 5.05 104.5
2007 SLC AAA 5 5 32.3 2 1 0 39 10 32 4 .265 118 10.9 2.8 1.1 8.9 43% .368 .258 1.52 4.36 5.02 91 3.73 94.3
2007 LIC Wnt 1 1 5.0 1 0 0 4 1 4 0 .000 7.2 1.8 0.0 7.2 0% .267 .000 1.00 2.66 0.00 0 0.00 0.0
2007 LIC Wnt 4 4 20.3 2 1 0 14 7 23 2 .000 6.2 3.1 0.9 10.2 0% .235 .000 1.03 3.25 2.66 0 0.00 0.0
2007 LIC Wnt 2 2 3.0 0 0 0 2 2 3 0 .000 6.0 6.0 0.0 9.0 0% .250 .000 1.33 3.06 0.00 0 0.00 0.0
2008 ANA MLB 32 32 219.0 16 7 0 198 47 214 23 .261 103 8.1 1.9 0.9 8.8 40% .289 .229 1.12 3.32 3.49 76 2.73 58.3
2009 ANA MLB 24 23 139.7 8 8 0 159 47 107 24 .262 104 10.2 3.0 1.5 6.9 40% .318 .278 1.47 5.06 5.03 113 6.11 131.1
2009 RCU A+ 1 1 4.7 0 0 0 4 0 3 2 .273 101 7.7 0.0 3.8 5.7 40% .154 .285 0.85 8.01 5.74 106 5.62 108.8
2009 SLC AAA 1 1 5.0 1 0 0 3 1 4 0 .275 73 5.4 1.8 0.0 7.2 33% .200 .187 0.80 3.05 3.60 102 4.59 92.3
2009 ANG Rk 1 1 3.3 0 0 0 3 0 7 0 .260 98 8.2 0.0 0.0 19.1 50% .500 .160 0.91 0.18 0.00 68 2.65 48.8
2010 ANA MLB 33 33 222.7 17 10 0 221 73 169 27 .258 101 8.9 3.0 1.1 6.8 37% .289 .268 1.32 4.25 3.92 106 4.24 95.7
2011 ANA MLB 33 33 228.7 11 12 0 207 72 178 26 .263 97 8.1 2.8 1.0 7.0 45% .272 .253 1.22 4.03 3.38 99 3.68 85.6
2012 ANA MLB 30 30 178.0 9 13 0 165 61 133 39 .262 97 8.3 3.1 2.0 6.7 45% .241 .283 1.27 5.57 5.16 115 5.33 122.1
2013 KCA MLB 32 32 211.0 9 10 0 190 51 161 26 .268 100 8.1 2.2 1.1 6.9 47% .267 .246 1.14 3.96 3.24 97 3.51 84.1
2014 ATL MLB 31 31 196.0 14 10 0 193 63 179 16 .257 95 8.9 2.9 0.7 8.2 45% .319 .272 1.31 3.36 3.95 94 3.20 78.5
2014 GWN AAA 1 1 5.3 1 0 0 8 4 3 1 .253 106 13.5 6.8 1.7 5.1 71% .350 .322 2.25 6.91 8.44 104 5.25 116.5
2015 MIN MLB 17 17 108.0 7 5 0 104 36 82 12 .262 104 8.7 3.0 1.0 6.8 43% .285 .254 1.30 4.13 4.00 112 4.93 115.2
2015 ROC AAA 3 3 20.7 3 0 0 17 4 11 2 .253 87 7.4 1.7 0.9 4.8 41% .242 .234 1.02 4.07 1.74 105 4.08 101.1
2016 MIN MLB 30 30 181.3 7 11 0 168 53 149 19 .258 107 8.3 2.6 0.9 7.4 44% .285 .237 1.22 3.76 3.38 97 4.04 89.4
2017 MIN MLB 33 33 211.3 16 8 0 177 61 167 31 .260 109 7.5 2.6 1.3 7.1 43% .245 .230 1.13 4.44 3.28 105 3.94 83.9
2018 FTM A+ 3 3 10.3 0 2 0 7 1 7 1 .260 104 6.1 0.9 0.9 6.1 32% .200 .205 0.77 3.92 3.48 103 3.97 84.1
2018 CHT AA 2 2 7.0 0 1 0 6 0 7 2 .250 98 7.7 0.0 2.6 9.0 55% .222 .232 0.86 5.16 5.14 94 4.55 96.2
2018 ROC AAA 2 2 11.7 0 1 0 6 4 8 3 .260 97 4.6 3.1 2.3 6.2 31% .103 .225 0.86 6.58 3.09 122 6.61 140.1

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2008 3253 0.4995 0.4685 0.7546 0.6092 0.3280 0.8525 0.5730 0.2454
2009 2274 0.4719 0.4371 0.7998 0.5871 0.3031 0.9095 0.6099 0.2002
2010 3439 0.4871 0.4359 0.7905 0.5815 0.2976 0.8994 0.5886 0.2095
2011 3428 0.4918 0.4481 0.7904 0.5961 0.3048 0.8985 0.5857 0.2096
2012 2845 0.4791 0.4464 0.7992 0.6200 0.2868 0.8888 0.6212 0.2008
2013 3238 0.4901 0.4592 0.7666 0.6049 0.3192 0.8823 0.5560 0.2334
2014 2968 0.4633 0.4555 0.7234 0.6233 0.3107 0.8541 0.4970 0.2766
2015 1561 0.4939 0.4587 0.7779 0.6187 0.3025 0.8700 0.5941 0.2221
2016 2921 0.4245 0.4680 0.7710 0.6637 0.3236 0.8688 0.6232 0.2290
2017 3192 0.4511 0.4799 0.7657 0.6556 0.3356 0.8602 0.6139 0.2343
Career291190.47510.4560.77320.61570.3120.87830.58490.2268

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-05-02 2014-05-10 DTD 8 7 Right Thumb Contusion - -
2012-03-14 2012-03-14 Camp 0 0 - Shoulder Contusion Batted Ball - -
2010-03-14 2010-03-28 Camp 14 0 Right Elbow Inflammation Olecranon Bursitis -
2009-06-12 2009-07-03 15-DL 21 19 Right Upper Arm Soreness Triceps -
2009-03-27 2009-05-14 15-DL 48 32 Right Elbow Sprain Ulnar Collateral Ligament -
2009-03-07 2009-03-27 Camp 20 0 Right Elbow Sprain Ulnar Collateral Ligament -
2007-03-10 2007-03-10 Camp 0 0 Neck Stiffness -
2006-08-10 2006-08-10 DTD 0 0 Left Knee Contusion Batted Ball -
2004-12-26 2004-12-26 WIN 0 0 Soreness -
2004-08-16 2004-09-05 Minors 20 0 Thigh Strain Hamstring -
2004-07-26 2004-07-26 Minors 0 0 Right Elbow Inflammation Tendonitis -
2004-02-23 2004-02-23 Camp 0 0 Right Shoulder Stiffness -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2019 MIN $
2018 MIN $13,500,000
2017 MIN $13,500,000
2016 MIN $13,500,000
2015 MIN $13,500,000
2014 ATL $14,100,000
2013 KCA $13,000,000
2012 ANA $11,200,000
2011 ANA $8,000,000
2010 ANA $6,000,000
2009 ANA $3,800,000
2008 ANA $420,000
2007 ANA $425,000
2006 ANA $350,000
YearsDescriptionSalary
12 yrPrevious$97,795,000
2018Current$13,500,000
13 yrPvs + Cur$111,295,000
13 yrTotal$111,295,000

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
12 y 104 dJay Alou4 years/$55M (2015-18), 2019 option

Details
  • 4 years/$55M (2015-18), plus 2019 club option. Signed by Minnesota as a free agent 12/15/14. 15-18:$13.5M annually. 19:$14M club option. 2019 option guaranteed if Santana passes physical after 2018 season and has 400 innings pitched in 2017-18, including 200 IP in 2018. Award bonuses, including $0.1M for Cy Young, $50,000 for Gold Glove, $25,000 for All Star. Placed on restricted list 4/3/15 (80-game suspension for positive PED test).
  • 1 year/$14.1M (2014). Signed by Atlanta as a free agent 3/12/14.
  • 4 years/$30M (2009-12), plus 2013 club option. Signed extension with LA Angels 2/14/09. 09:$3.8M, 10:$6M, 11:$8M, 12:$11.2M, 13:$13M club option, $1M buyout. Hired Adam Katz of Wasserman Media Group as agent 7/12, replacing Bean Stringfellow. LA Angels exercised 2013 option 10/31/12. Acquired by Kansas City in trade from LA Angels 10/31/12 (Angels paid Royals $1M in the deal).
  • 1 year/$0.42M (2008). Renewed by LA Angels 3/2/08.
  • 1 year/$0.425M (2007). Re-signed by LA Angels 3/07. Optioned to Triple-A 7/18/07. Recalled 8/17/07.
  • 1 year/$0.35M (2006). Re-signed by LA Angels 3/06.
  • 1 year (2005). Contract purchased by LA Angels 11/04. Re-signed 2/05. Optioned to Triple-A 5/05. Recalled 6/05.
  • Signed by Anaheim 2000 as an amateur free agent from the Dominican Republic. $0.7M signing bonus.

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Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv
10 vs L (Multi) .257 .319 .397 .253
11 vs R (Multi) .241 .294 .388 .243
18 Split (Multi) .016 .024 .008 .010
19 LgAvg (Multi) .006 .020 .015 .013
30 vs L (2016) .247 .310 .357 .233
31 vs R (2016) .244 .293 .404 .241
38 Split (2016) .003 .017 -.047 -.008
39 LgAvg (2016) .003 .018 .013 .012

Definition of multi-year splits

BP Annual Player Comments

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BP Articles

Click here to see articles tagged with Ervin Santana

BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2017-10-03 20:00:00 (link to chat)Santana did not throw a changeup in that whole AB to Gregorius. Highly unusual for him vs. LH.
(InsightsHound from MN)
For those of you counting at home, Ervin Santana throws his changeup 22% of the time to lefties in 2017. He also throws his slider 21% of the time, and that's the pitch which Didi hit a home run on. Generally his best pitch, but it's MIA right now. Bad news for the Twins. -BD (AL WC Game Chat)
2017-10-03 20:00:00 (link to chat)As a Yankee fan, do we want Ervin Santana to stay in the game?
(Eddie from Ann Arbor)
If Ervin comes out, we're looking at Berrios pitching. He's only 23, so, like Severino, I could see the nerves getting to him. Then again, he could shut the Yankees down and okay Brett Gardner just hit a home run off Santana so you know the answer. -BD (AL WC Game Chat)
2017-10-03 20:00:00 (link to chat)What is Ervin Santana's beard???
(Ed from CT)
Tidy. --Meg (AL WC Game Chat)
2017-09-18 23:00:00 (link to chat)Hi Wilson, What do you expect from Ervin Santana and Rich Hill next season? I suspect regression from both.
(Cal Guy from Cal)
Outside of that one terrible season in Anaheim and some innings lost to injury a couple years ago, Santana has been one of the quieter 55 starters in baseball this decade. He's posted better-than-average DRAs in 7 of 8 seasons in the 2010's, over a span of more than 1,500 innings. What you see is pretty much what you get with him. I might projects a bit more conservative to hedge against him entering his age 35 season, but I've always dug him as a perfectly steady mid-rotation AL-only guy. Hill is...I mean, who knows? He has some starts where nothing works, but most of the time when he's able to take the ball he'll give you very strong production. 125 innings of better-than-league-average production seems about it line with where I'd settle for him?

This is one of my favorite lo-fi riddims, and this is a pretty rare cut of Delroy riding it (complete wi di nice version...huuuuuuh!): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7SRVQguQJU (Wilson Karaman)
2017-07-12 13:00:00 (link to chat)What would you do if you were running a team like the Royals or Twins, who are technically contending but don't look like the raw talent favorites to win their races? Buy aggressively to improve your odds or not waste resources? How does that decision swing if you're the Royals (last gasp) or the Twins (beginning of contention cycle)?
(jfegan from Chicago)
If I were the Royals I'd definitely try to go for it this year. As you indicated, they have a ton of free agents leaving after this season and they already drained their farm system completely supporting their World Series run (and whiffing hideously on Top Ten draft picks).

They also have a bunch of dudes with an OPS below .600 (Alex Gordon, Alcides Escobar, Brandon Moss, etc.) so even a modest acquisition could represent a significant upgrade. They're going to be bad for a long time anyway, and they're like a game out of the Wild Card. Might as well go for it.

The Twins pitching is really, really bad and they don't have much help on the way. I think if I were running the Twins I'd hope they lose like 7 in a row so I have cover to deal Ervin Santana. (Nick Schaefer)
2017-05-08 20:00:00 (link to chat)If big Erv keeps up something similar to what he has over that past year, and the Twins fall out of contention....WHAT type of package could they feasibly get for him?
(Nate from St Paul)
I wonder this sometimes, whether certain players get typecast based on our perception of them. Based on his production over the last year, he should bring back a haul. However, when you think of *Ervin Santana* it doesn't necessarily make you want to go out and break the bank. I think he could probably pry away a couple of top 10-15 guys in some organization, or maybe a top 5 guy? (Mark Barry)
2017-05-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)George, I am in a unique 13-team 5X5 ROTO league. We use all of the AL teams and 2 of the NL teams (Cubs & Nationals this year). I have 2 offers I'd love your thoughts on: 1) Derek Holland for Michael Taylor; 2) Ervin Santana for Avisail Garcia. My pitching is strong, but bats are lagging behind. Thanks so much in advance.
(wbaker0621 from Connecticut)
I'm probably taking the deal for Taylor (power/speed with huge batting average risk) but keeping Ervin. (George Bissell)
2016-03-09 19:00:00 (link to chat)Trying to slim down on my lower tier SP for dynasty, help me rank this group, please? Roenis Elias, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Matt Wisler, Alex Meyer, Ervin Santana & Alex Wood
(Meh SPs from Chicago)
I'd go Alex Wood, Santana, Wisler, Meyer, Chi Chi, and Elias. They're all pretty close to me with the exception of Elias. (Mike Gianella)
2015-10-22 14:00:00 (link to chat)Which pitcher and position player do you think will get overpaid this off-season? And who do you think could end up being a steal for the team that signs them?
(Josh from Chicago)
Pitcher, overpaid: Mike Leake. Could fall right into that four-year, $50-million sour spot for FA SP, alongisde Edwin Jackson, Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco, Ubaldo, Brandon McCarthy.
Pos. player, overpaid: Cespedes.

P, underpaid: I dunno. Brett Anderson maybe.
Pos., underpaid: Dexter Fowler. QO will hurt him, not being a good defender in center will hurt him, but OBP is life and he's got it. (Matthew Trueblood)
2015-07-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)I'm rebuilding in a dynasty mixed league. Was offered my Ervin Santana, Eovaldi or Leake, and Jim Johnson for Alen Hanson and Gleyber Torres. Yay or nay? Thanks!
(Mark from Connecticut)
Do it. Embrace the rebuild. (Christopher Crawford)
2015-04-06 20:15:00 (link to chat)Craig, I'm a Red Sox fan but also a numbers guy. What should I make of this Porcello business?
(Ben Carsley from Boston)
I'm sure as a numbers guy you have a better grip on this stuff than me, Mr. Miscellany, but I'll give it a shot.

I think ~$20M/year is a lot for Porcello. I know that baseball is awash in money and I get that the money has to go SOMEwhere, so if that's the angle to getting this deal, then so be it. Beyond that though, I'm struggling to understand it. Dude has two years with an ERA+ over 100 and one of those was last year. Wouldn't you make him repeat that success before paying him FA type money for shorter years?

Look at Porcello compared to Ervin Santana. Sure, they're different pitchers and Porcello has a huge youth advantage, but at 6 years into his career, is it really reasonable to expect that youth to matter beyond durability (and Ervin has been one of the most durable in the game prior to the suspension).

I don't know guys. I just don't get it. (Craig Goldstein)
2014-03-12 14:00:00 (link to chat)With a depleted rotation possibly dragging the Braves down, do the Mets have a slightly more realistic chance at that 90 wins mark? Or, at the very least, a battle for second (instead of third) place in the NL East?
(P from Austin)
Eh, I don't see it. Don't know if you heard, but Atlanta signed Ervin Santana today, so that rotation is looking a little less depleted. (Ben Lindbergh)
2014-03-14 09:00:00 (link to chat)Hey Mike, love the position rankings and appreciate them coming out early this year. Since some have been out a while are there any rankings that you would really like to change based on something you've seen in the Spring (like an injury perhaps)? Thanks.
(DanDaMan from Sea Cliff)
Hi Dan.

I reflect the changes in my bid limits that I update every week (including today! http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=23036). Today, I moved Joakim Soria up and Neftali Feliz down and moved Alexander Guerrero down and Dee Gordon up. Kris Medlen is out while Ervin Santana is in in the National League. Check out the rankings for all the latest movers and shakers. (Mike Gianella)
2014-02-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)Nationals get two prospects with Lobaton. Should they now give up draft pick and sign Ervin Santana?
(HalfStreet from Fairfax VA)
Interesting thought. (R.J. Anderson)
2014-02-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)Who will have a better year in AL H-H league? Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez, or Chris Archer. (both FA would be eligible in our league even if they're in NL). Also, salaries are equal, who would you rather have Greinke or Joe Mauer?
(redsoxin2004 from Columbia, CT)
Archer, Greinke. (Jeff Moore)
2014-01-23 12:00:00 (link to chat)Will Toronto sign Ervin Santana?
(Alex from Anaheim)
They need to sign someone who can start. I'd rather have Ubaldo Jimenez myself, but Santana would be an upgrade for them as well. The Jays have a good roster (if healthy) and a shot at contention if they can find the starting pitching. Maybe Stroman steps up, but I wouldn't bet on it this season. Will Brandon Morrow be healthy? Yeah, they need to sign someone. (Matthew Kory)
2014-01-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Ervin Santana - what do you do with him? Wait to see what team signs him, or trade him away before he ends up in Colorado or something?
(captnamerca from FLA)
I'd sell high just in general. I've always liked him and he was one of my better calls last year (#backpat), but I'll let someone else deal with him in new (and currently unknown) environs and a fat contract. (Paul Sporer)
2013-11-22 14:00:00 (link to chat)Hi Doug, How do you view this year's free agent class for pitchers? Who are the top talents and who are the top values?
(JasonPennini from Denver)
It is a very weak class, even by today's revamped standards of free agency. I think the top talents are Hiroki Kuroda, Josh Johnson (already signed), and A.J. Burnett. Burnett will almost definitely be a great value given his desire to pitch only for the Pirates, and I think that Arroyo could be a good sign for a team with a big ballpark. I also liked the Huddy signing for the Giants. I am not big on guys like Garza (dislike his delivery), Ubaldo (worst. delivery. ever.), and Ervin Santana - players whose name value / 2013 performances could push up their prices.

On the jukebox: Drist, "Pollute the Sound" (Doug Thorburn)
2013-10-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thanks for the chat Matt! Now that the Giants have resigned Big Time Timmy Jim, who else will the Giants pursue in the pitching department? They still have possibly two more rotation spots to fill. Any possibilities with Masahiro Tanaka, Ubaldo Jimenez, Ervin Santana?
(Jim from STL)
They could go after any of those guys, but considering they already have a tremendous amount of cash going to Timmy, Bumgarner, and Cain, I'd expect they won't be dropping a ton of cash on the last two rotation spots. That money is probably better spent elsewhere. Like on a personal trainer for Panda. (Matthew Kory)
2013-08-27 13:00:00 (link to chat)What happened to Ervin Santana between this season and last?
(Alex from Anaheim)
he's been getting velocity back, which may be attributable to the slightly hot PFX that comes out of KC. I have him throwing "more" sinkers, but the reality is he's thrown them in the past but I could never pick them out clearly and he says he's throwing them less these days. One thing I wonder is are his mechanics cleaner/more repeatable which results in him having better command (walks are down, HR too FWIW), better velocity (caveats applied) and more consistency in the separation of his two fastballs (self-serving but hey I count for something). (Harry Pavlidis)
2013-07-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)Has Ervin Santana really turned a corner this year?
(Kevin from STL)
There are definitely some real improvements there, and I would say he's probably set himself up for a nice payday. Some of it is just that he had an absurd home run total last year that he was never going to equal in Kansas City or really anywhere. He's always been homerprone, but last year's total set him up for improvement no matter what. (Zachary Levine)
2013-04-16 20:00:00 (link to chat)Is Felix Dumbrount worth keeping on a 12 team mixed roster? He's pitching today and don't feel confident in starting him. Any high upside pitchers to target for end of the rotation SP spots?
(RC from PDX)
Was that a Freudian slip? He's not really worth owning in a 12 teamer for now. You can find better pitching on the wire. How about someone like Chris Tillman or Ervin Santana? Or Francisco Liriano?? Someone help me. Seriously. (Bret Sayre)
2013-04-18 14:00:00 (link to chat)How would you rank for the rest of the season: Justin Masterson, Carlos Villanueva, Ervin Santana, and Wade Davis
(nubber from tx)
He certainly won't maintain a 0.64 ERA, but I've like Carlos Villanueva for a while. So, I'll say Villanueva, Santana, Masterson, Davis. (Daniel Rathman)
2012-12-11 13:00:00 (link to chat)2 proven ML pitchers for 4 prospects with a grand total of 2 ML games. This was NOT a bad deal at all for the Royals, right?
(J3FFR3Y from work)
Well, I think it is, but other reasonable people think it isn't. But I have a real quibble with the framing that you use, and that a lot of people use, to defend this move for the Royals. "Two proven for four unproven" means that, what, no trade of prospects for a veteran can ever be bad? If the Royals had acquired Ervin Santana and Dan Haren for Myers, Starling, Odorizzi and Zimmer a month ago, would it be defensible because prospects fail? Of course not. Obviously, prospects fail. It's part of the math. But the key thing is that there is math and doing the math is enlightening and doing the math suggests this isn't a great move for the Royals, in a vacuum. (It's not a vacuum is maybe a stronger argument.) (Sam Miller)
2012-10-16 14:00:00 (link to chat)What are the odds of Phil Hughes giving up a homer to Miguel Cabrera?
(HANNAH from BAY AREA, CA)
Hughes gave up a ton of home runs this year--35 in just over 190 innings. In fact, only one qualified pitcher allowed homers at a higher rate (Ervin Santana). As you'd probably expect when you're talking about a Yankees pitcher, he gave up most of those homers at home, but he's still a pretty safe bet to give one up tonight. I don't know whether Cabrera has a better chance of being the one to hit that homer than Prince Fielder--probably not, given platoon splits--but the odds are good. If you wanted actual odds, and not just "good," which you already knew, I'm sorry. Math and chats don't mix. (Ben Lindbergh)
2012-08-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)I have a solution that will allow Ervin Santana to sign a huge free agent contract in 2014. Sign an incentive laden deal with the Padres and then let the Yankees overpay based on his Petco numbers.
(Ervin from LA)
Is there an example of a Petco pitcher getting rich off his Petco stats? Probably ones I'm forgetting, but baseball doesn't seem to be falling for this like they fell for mid-90s Rockies hitters. (Sam Miller)
2012-06-29 13:00:00 (link to chat)Just lost CC, Pettitte and Dempster to injury. This ain't pretty, but who would you pick up out of this group? Milone, Samardzija, Wei-Yin Chen, Floyd, Ervin Santana, Masterson, Hochevar, Bailey and Quintana.
(Struggling from NYC)
I like Samardzija, who's been strafed for a .331 BABIP but has good strikeout and home run rates. Chen has held his own in a tough park, and Masterson has been pretty decent besides the wins. (Jay Jaffe)
2012-01-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)SP keepers! The stats are the usual stats (ERA, K, WHIP, wins, etc.) The guys are: James Shields, Josh Beckett, CJ Wilson, Ervin Santana. Do I have them in the right order? (Might keep 2, but probably only 1 while hoarding young 2Bs like Jemile Weeks & Dustin Ackley.) Thanks!
(David R. from Somewhere, USA)
Yes, you do have them in the right order, though I think there's a drop-off from Beckett to Wilson and that Beckett is a bit underrated this year. (Derek Carty)
2011-12-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)Any chance the Angels trade Ervin Santana for say, Adam Dunn or Jayson Werth? It's been awhile since a bad trade. - signed giddy Rangers fan
(@SDIdan from Colorado)
Almost every bad deal you could imagine the Angels making a year ago would be unimaginable now. It's just such a different front office now. They'll probably end up making a whole new kind of bad move, eventually. But it's sort of a lousy time to root for the Angels to do stupid things. Sorry. (Sam Miller)
2011-04-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)If you were the Yankees, who would be the worst established major league starter that you would accept back for Montero? I don't want them to trade him at all, but I definitely would be very upset if they traded him for, say, Ervin Santana.
(bumphadley from NJ)
To stay with the Angels, I think Weaver would make an interesting target, assuming they would want to part with their best pitcher, which I doubt they would, especially if that pitcher made the Yankees better, which he would. (Jason Parks)
2010-10-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)How confident are you in Ervin Santana matching or building on this year's success? And who is the Yanks DH next year, Damon, Montero or other?
(Henry from Fairport)
His strikeout rates were average and his K/BB wasn't that much better than average, so his ERA should probably be closer to 4.2 or 4.3 next year assuming the Angels don't overhaul their defense like you know they will via free agency this winter. If he repeats a 3.9 ERA, it will be with great glove work behind him, and not entirely his doing. (Marc Normandin)
2010-03-24 11:00:00 (link to chat)What are your expectations of Ervin Santana this year? 2008, 2009, or grievious injury?
(Aaron from YYZ)
Is it a cop out to say somewhere in the middle? That's usually the right answer, at least when it comes to expectations. Low 4s ERA seems right to me. (Tommy Bennett)
2010-03-17 14:00:00 (link to chat)On my strat teams, I refused to trade Grady Sizemore, Cole Hamels and Ervin Santana this offseason. Who is more likely to bounce back to top form?
(lou from Cape Cod)
I think there's a good argument to be made--and has been made by my colleagues here at BP--that Hamels was and will be just fine. With a nod to them, I think Sizemore's the one who truly bounces back. (Christina Kahrl)
2010-03-08 13:00:00 (link to chat)Do you have concerns about Ervin Santana?
(mike from OC)
Yes. Check the Angels THR.

For those that don't know, you can click on the big THR graphic - either on the front page or each article - and you'll go to a directory of all THRs for this year. We're also working on getting THR comments onto the new PECOTA cards, though I don't have a timeline on that. And tell CK that you want the red/yellow/greens in BP2011. (Will Carroll)
2009-08-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)Marc, what are your long-term thoughts for Ervin Santana and Francisco Liriano fantasy-wise? They're young and have had past success but they're just maddening this season.
(Aaron from YYZ)
I wasn't a big fan of Liriano prior to this year. I thought his short stint in 2008 would cause people to overrate him (they did) and that his velocity was too far down and his control too spotty to rely on him for much (which happened). I know I don't get them all right--I feel like I drafted all the guys I got wrong too--but I just don't like the lower velocity Liriano. He's going to need to show he's a smarter pitcher than this to get by before I can place more faith in him.

As for Santana, he's gone right back to giving up lots of homers and dealing out walks once again. I have hope that he can return to last year's form still, but his velocity is also way down. Makes me wonder how he's feeling. (Marc Normandin)
2009-02-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)3 players on the cusp. Nate McClouth - without Bay and Nady behind him, do we expect 2008 final numbers or doulbe the second half? Ervin Santana - Can he repeat last year, or will he be as eratic as in his past? Alexei Ramirez - Soriano-lite or will the MLB pitchers adjust to him this year? Thank you
(BPKevin from NYC)
McLouth is going to be a massive disappointment. His defense was awful, hardware aside, and his season was 30 great days and then generic outfielder thereafter. I like Santana to be a top-15 starter in the AL, right around what he did last year. Ramirez... yeah, Soriano Lite is a decent description. .280/.310/.460 or so. I'm curious as to whether his defense develops at shortstop. If he can't be at least average with the glove somewhere, he can't play. (Joe Sheehan)
2008-12-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)My initial reaction to giving a player an opt-out clause (like Burnett, A-Rod, and CC) is that they were horrible decisions by the club. But upon further consideration, I actually like them in many cases. I think the most likely scenario is that CC stays relatively healthy and productive for the first 3 years of his deal. This probably leads him to opting out, which allows the Yankees to avoid the risker portion of the contract. Really, the only scenarios I can think of where it is less desireable than the straight 7-year contract is (1) the Burnett Scenario where he is not really healthy the first couple years, but opts out after a dominant 3rd year OR (2) he stays productive all 7 years, but opts out after 3 years and the Yankees miss 4 years of below-market production from an elite pitcher. But really, scenario #1 isn't that bad, particularly if the guy keeps getting injured (Toronto will probably be thrilled he opted out in a year). And to me, scenario #2 is pretty unlikely. If I'm the Yankees, I'm praying he opts out so I can go after Matt Cain, Felix Hernandez, or Ervin Santana in 3 years for a similar deal. Am I crazy or missing something here?
(mymrbig from New Orleans)
Joe Sheehan made largely this argument in Vegas. Not sure if he's written it, though I think he has. I'm looking at it as a 3 year contract with a 90 million buck insurance policy on it for Sabathia, because he only stays if things have gone wrong. So yes, I agree with you, Big. (Will Carroll)
2008-10-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)Dear Mr. Carroll: Is it OK if I sneak in an early keeper question involving four pitchers with various kinds of (health) concerns? I can keep two out of these four aces: John Lackey, Francisco Liriano, Ervin Santana and Ben Sheets. Who would you keep and why?
(bo9anderson from Amterdam, the Netherlands)
I'd keep Lackey (pitching for a contract, few health problems) and Liriano (healthy, good team). Liriano's not a clear choice over Santana. Sheets -- arm trouble plus I dont know where he'll play. Him signing in Texas or Houston would knock him way down. (Will Carroll)
2008-06-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)Here's a fantasy question for you if you're interested. I'd much appreciate it. Someone in my league just traded Ryan Howard, Justin Verlander, Josh Beckett, Curtis Granderson and Manny Ramirez for Cliff Lee, Ervin Santana, Carlos Gomez, Torii Hunter, Erik Bedard and Garrett Atkins. A lot of people are screaming veto, and I have to agree. The trade doesn't have any 'needs-based' or 'long-term' mitigating factors, either. As an important aside, the team getting the first set of players is in third while the other guy is near the bottom. Would you exercise a veto on this deal? Thanks!
(havens from bristol, CT)
Are we assuming good faith in this deal? Often a league has someone in it who is the Randy Smith of fantasy GMs and just gets suckered by everybody. I think that guy is fair game -- if he wears diapers, he shouldn't have been allowed in the league in the first place. I'm not for exercising the veto except in really apparent cases of dumping... You know, there was a parallel case in actual baseball, where for awhile Bowie Kuhn was negating trades just because he didn't like the players involved. He was actually sitting there and passing judgment on what the GMs were doing. Imagine if Bud Selig came in and said "Mets, you're overpaying for Johan Santana. No deal." That kind of thing was happening, and the more obvious opposite case as well, where he would have said, "Twins, Carlos Gomez isn't good enough. You need to hold out for a better position player or no deal." Like much of Kuhn's reign it was pathetic and unintentionally comical. (Steven Goldman)
2008-05-01 13:00:00 (link to chat)Do you think we'll one day see a pitching strategy that aggresively takes into account matchups and/or ballparks? Something like the Angels or Astros shuffling their rotations to have Ervin Santana or Wandy Rodriguez pitching at home more often than typical under a set rotation. Or the Royals avoiding pitching Banny in a hitter's park? Is it realistic to expect pitchers to be able to adjust to an extra days rest or one less days rest here or there? Are the potential gains enough to offset the losses from shorter rest of the need to use an extra starter here and there?
(blaseta from Calgary)
Not to channel Steven Goldman here, but the idea of a set rotation is fairly recent. In the 1950s and before, managers often juggled rotations to have their best pitchers pitch against the best opposition.

In general, the game has shifted too much to "roles," especially on the pitching side. I suspect players can handle a lot more uncertainty than is generally thought, and that the creation of all of these roles has been a net negative for the industry as a whole. But it keeps managers insulated from criticism, which is the real goal. (Joe Sheehan)
2008-01-17 14:00:00 (link to chat)Hi Christina- Thanks for taking my question. What do you see from Ervin Santana down the road? Will it click for him or does he need a change of scenery?
(ripfan008 from Baltimore)
I remain an optimist about Ervin Santana, and think he won't even require a change of scenery to get turned around. If the Angels don't deal him because they get unexpected pressure from the Mariners, he should be part of a good Angels rotation in the years to come. (Christina Kahrl)
2008-01-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hi Joe- Thanks for taking my question. Do you belive Ervin Santana will be able to put it together or is he in need of a change of scenery?
(ripfan008 from Baltimore)
I'm a fan. He clearly still has the physical skills to be a midrotation starter, maybe even a little better than that. Angels Stadium is actually a good park for him, and if they just leave him be, he'll be fine for them, a real asset. (Joe Sheehan)


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