Baseball Prospectus

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Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 75)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	Run Average	Trend
1	86	Nick Masset	2011	3.84
2	85	Zach Putnam	2017	1.04
3	83	Brett Cecil	2016	4.17
4	82	Chris Resop	2012	4.28
5	82	Tom Wilhelmsen	2013	4.27
6	81	Michael Wuertz	2008	4.63
7	81	Adam Ottavino	2015	0.00
8	80	Justin Grimm	2018	10.38
9	78	Joel Hanrahan	2011	2.23
10	78	Pedro Baez	2017	3.38
11	78	Juan Oviedo	2011	4.20
12	78	Xavier Cedeno	2016	3.70
13	78	Danny Farquhar	2016	3.82
14	78	Luis Garcia	2016	6.46
15	77	Kevin Gregg	2007	3.64
16	77	Will Harris	2014	4.34
17	77	Liam Hendriks	2018	4.13
18	77	Cory Rasmus	2017	0.00	DNP
19	77	Juan Cruz	2008	2.96
20	77	Rafael Perez	2011	3.86
21	77	Neftali Feliz	2017	6.46
22	76	Sammy Solis	2018	6.41
23	76	Boone Logan	2014	7.20
24	76	Charlie Furbush	2015	2.49
25	76	Aaron Heilman	2008	5.68
26	76	Steve Cishek	2015	4.23
27	75	David Carpenter	2015	4.74
28	75	Fernando Salas	2014	3.38
29	75	Jake Diekman	2016	3.74
30	75	Vinnie Chulk	2008	5.12
31	75	Neal Cotts	2009	7.36
32	75	Derrick Turnbow	2007	4.76
33	75	John Axford	2012	5.45
34	74	Jason Frasor	2007	4.58
35	74	Brian Wilson	2011	3.27
36	74	Jose Alvarez	2018	2.86
37	74	Greg Aquino	2007	5.79
38	74	Dan Jennings	2016	2.67
39	74	Vinnie Pestano	2014	3.86
40	74	Heath Hembree	2018	4.50
41	74	C.J. Wilson	2010	3.66
42	74	Shane Greene	2018	5.54
43	74	Josh Osich	2018	8.25
44	74	Drew Pomeranz	2018	6.45
45	74	Fernando Rodney	2006	4.52
46	74	Jon Rauch	2008	4.52
47	74	Heath Bell	2007	2.11
48	74	Wesley Wright	2014	3.54
49	74	Chad Qualls	2008	3.54
50	73	Luke Gregerson	2013	3.26
51	73	Mike MacDougal	2006	1.55
52	73	Hong-Chih Kuo	2011	9.67
53	73	Juan Gutierrez	2013	4.72
54	73	Aaron Loup	2017	4.21
55	73	Gonzalez Germen	2017	0.00	DNP
56	73	Taylor Buchholz	2011	3.46
57	73	Kevin Quackenbush	2018	11.00
58	73	Jason Motte	2011	2.91
59	73	Ryan Madson	2010	2.72
60	73	Marc Rzepczynski	2015	7.46
61	73	John Grabow	2008	2.96
62	73	Sean Marshall	2012	2.66
63	73	Evan Meek	2012	6.75
64	73	Brad Brach	2015	2.84
65	73	Neil Ramirez	2018	4.54
66	73	Brandon Workman	2018	3.27
67	73	Brandon Kintzler	2014	3.55
68	73	Carlos Carrasco	2016	3.94
69	72	Adam Warren	2017	2.98
70	72	Matt Lindstrom	2009	6.65
71	72	Matt Guerrier	2008	5.42
72	72	Mike Dunn	2014	4.11
73	72	Justin Wilson	2017	3.57
74	72	Ryan O'Rourke	2017	0.00	DNP
75	72	Dellin Betances	2017	3.02
76	72	Jerry Blevins	2013	3.45
77	72	Justin De Fratus	2017	0.00	DNP
78	72	Nate Karns	2017	4.17
79	72	J.P. Howell	2012	3.04
80	72	Santiago Casilla	2010	2.28
81	71	Bryan Morris	2016	3.57
82	71	Jeff Nelson	1996	4.60
83	71	Brandon League	2012	3.38
84	71	Dan Wheeler	2007	5.79
85	71	Hector Neris	2018	5.10
86	71	Andrew Bailey	2013	3.77
87	71	Alex Colome	2018	3.44
88	71	Brandon Gomes	2014	3.71
89	71	Mark Davis	1990	5.64
90	71	Jose Veras	2010	3.75
91	71	Jim Gott	1989	0.00
92	71	Rich Gossage	1981	1.16
93	71	Buddy Boshers	2017	5.14
94	71	Mitchell Boggs	2013	8.87
95	71	Christian Friedrich	2017	0.00	DNP
96	71	Jim Johnson	2012	2.75
97	71	Troy Patton	2015	0.00	DNP
98	71	Tyson Ross	2016	13.50
99	71	Jose Valverde	2007	2.94
100	71	Oliver Drake	2016	5.50

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2019		Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018		The polite way to phrase the question is “How much does a former first-rounder need to produce to justify his draft slot?” If we’re among friends, the real question is “Has Barnes done enough to avoid being labeled a bust?” Barnes was the 19th overall pick back in 2011 and was projected to be a fast-moving mid-rotation starter, or at the very least a dominant reliever. Instead he’s just slightly better than your run-of-the-mill, medium-leverage bullpen guy. He’s got a big fastball that features little movement. He’s got a good curveball that he can’t always throw for strikes. He was solid enough early in the season to serve as the primary setup man and bad enough in September to get left off the postseason roster. If Barnes hadn’t been a first-round pick, you wouldn’t know him apart from 60 other guys in the majors with his profile. This might seem harsh since Barnes just had his best season by WARP. It’s just that Barnes’ best isn’t special.
2017		Barnes has three things going for him: size, velocity and pedigree. The big right-hander routinely reaches 97 with his fastball, and while his curveball is inconsistent it flashes plus often enough for you to understand why the Red Sox popped him 19th overall back in 2011. Barnes also has three things working against him: the lack of a third pitch, spotty command and a heater that’s more about speed than movement. Seriously, Barnes’ fastball is so straight it could hold a Senate seat in North Carolina. Add it all together and you have a middle reliever who’s sometimes dominant and sometimes dominated, making Barnes more likely to stay a seventh-inning guy than ascend to something greater.
2016		It's getting harder and harder to be optimistic about Barnes' future as an impact major leaguer. He throws hard and has pitched well in the upper minors in the past, but the UConn product is inconsistent, hasn't mastered a third pitch and frequently loses his command. It's long been assumed that Barnes could be a dominant late-inning weapon as a reliever, but the right-hander was shellacked to the tune of a .304/.362/.511 line in 32 innings out of the 'pen in the majors. Barnes is just 25, has an ideal build and throws hard, so he's far from out of chances. But if he hadn't been a first-round pick there wouldn't be much differentiating him from the myriad dime-a-dozen flamethrowers who can't hit their spots and wash out in Triple-A.
2015		Barnes has all the tools he needs to succeed as a major-league starter. His fastball grades out as plus or plus-plus, his curveball is a strong second weapon and his changeup also flashes above-average potential. Yet he hasn't put together a good season from start-to-finish since he graduated to the mid-minors. He missed some time with a shoulder injury to begin the 2014 season and got off to an abysmal start in Pawtucket. He eventually showed improvement over his final 10 starts, but there's still plenty of Barnes raising* to be done before he can be relied upon as a starter at the highest level. The UConn product got a cup of coffee as a reliever in Boston at the end of the year, and while he'd likely be dominant in that role the Red Sox have to hope he figures it out in the rotation. *So sorry
2014		Barnes' 2013 season looks like a failure next to his more attractive past, but he progressed, and that's what matters. The 2011 first-rounder has a promising curveball and changeup, but disposed of low-minors opposition almost entirely with his plus fastball, as pitchers with plus heat in the lower levels tend to do. Double-A was the first challenge for his raw secondary offerings: He scuffled in the first half, but dominated from mid-July on, racking up a 2.30 ERA with 54 strikeouts against 20 walks in his final 43 innings. There's work to be done with his curve and change, and the walks need to come down, but the season ended on a high note with Barnes promoted to Triple-A to face competition that will force that education upon him. If he takes notes, there's a future in the middle of a big-league rotation for him.
2013		Boston hasn�t produced a top starting pitcher since Clay Buchholz in 2007, so Barnes isn�t just a sip of water in the desert, he�s a mirage come to life. Boston�s first-round pick in 2011, Barnes has an easy delivery that pumps the ball in the mid-90s with excellent sink in the lower half of the zone. He keeps hitters off-balance with a good breaking ball and an average changeup, both with above-average potential. After five starts with just one run allowed in the Sally League, Boston moved him up to High-A, where he continued to pitch well. If he can improve his fastball command, don�t be surprised to see Barnes reach the upper minors before the year is out.
2012		Unlike Anthony Ranaudo, who didn't get his first taste of professional action until the season after he was drafted, Boston's first pick in the 2011 draft already has some innings under his belt thanks to the Fall Instructional League. Barnes's fastball sits 93-95, and as of now it is his strongest offering, especially when used in the lower portions of the strike zone. He needs to work on his change, but his curveball is the real deal. He will get the chance to refine his mechanics, change-up, and overall approach in his first taste of full-season ball in 2012.

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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC

Matt Barnes has thrown 8,819 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2014 and 2024, all of them occuring in Spring Training. In 2024, he has relied primarily on his Curve (82mph) and Fourseam Fastball (92mph), also mixing in a Splitter (87mph).