Baseball Prospectus

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Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 72)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	DRC+	Trend
1	85	Carlos Ruiz	2008	80
2	81	Francisco Cervelli	2015	105
3	80	George Kottaras	2012	108
4	80	Steve Holm	2009	86
5	80	Ryan Hanigan	2010	119
6	79	Jose Lobaton	2014	73
7	79	Jake Smolinski	2018	66
8	78	Brayan Pena	2011	87
9	78	Eric Campbell	2016	74
10	77	Daric Barton	2015	0	DNP
11	77	Brian Buscher	2010	0	DNP
12	77	Curtis Casali	2018	101
13	77	John Baker	2010	65
14	75	Ryan Spilborghs	2009	80
15	75	Gaby Sanchez	2013	113
16	75	Matt Downs	2013	0	DNP
17	75	Jason Phillips	2006	69
18	75	Steve Clevenger	2015	98
19	74	Justin Turner	2014	130
20	74	John Jaso	2013	102
21	74	Josh Bard	2007	100
22	74	Landon Powell	2011	68
23	74	Dan Johnson	2009	0	DNP
24	74	Alejandro De Aza	2013	97
25	74	Mike Baxter	2014	72
26	73	Mike Fontenot	2009	73
27	73	Eric Sogard	2015	80
28	73	Luis Valbuena	2015	120
29	73	Gabe Gross	2009	82
30	73	Josh Phegley	2017	80
31	73	Rob Johnson	2012	73
32	72	Alex Presley	2015	84
33	72	Travis d'Arnaud	2018	80
34	72	Ryan Garko	2010	71
35	72	Chris Coghlan	2014	110
36	72	Russell Martin	2012	102
37	72	Jose Martinez	2018	119
38	72	Terrmel Sledge	2006	84
39	72	Dioner Navarro	2013	133
40	72	Lyle Overbay	2006	120
41	72	Abraham Almonte	2018	69
42	71	Jonathan Lucroy	2015	93
43	71	Smoky Burgess	1956	104
44	71	John Stearns	1981	94
45	71	Russ Adams	2010	0	DNP
46	71	Michael McKenry	2014	111
47	71	Collin Cowgill	2015	62
48	71	Travis Buck	2013	0	DNP
49	71	Brian Bogusevic	2013	94
50	71	Kevin Youkilis	2008	147
51	71	Dustin Garneau	2017	68
52	71	Daniel Nava	2012	100
53	71	Shane Robinson	2014	72
54	70	Mike Edwards	2006	70
55	70	Travis Ishikawa	2013	59
56	70	Andy LaRoche	2013	88
57	70	Cliff Bolton	1936	81
58	70	Matt Carpenter	2015	133
59	70	Chris Burke	2009	70
60	70	Yonder Alonso	2016	90
61	70	Travis Snider	2017	0	DNP
62	70	Bill Freehan	1971	127
63	70	Eric Fryer	2015	95
64	70	Brian Downing	1980	108
65	70	Ronny Paulino	2010	92
66	70	Nolan Reimold	2013	68
67	70	Jeff Salazar	2010	0	DNP
68	70	Brandon Guyer	2015	111
69	70	Jesus Guzman	2013	87
70	70	Eric Munson	2007	98
71	70	Mike Rose	2006	64
72	70	Brock Holt	2017	69
73	70	Nate Freiman	2016	0	DNP
74	69	Kevin Frandsen	2011	0	DNP
75	69	Mitch Maier	2011	69
76	69	Seth Smith	2012	104
77	69	Roberto Perez	2018	52
78	69	A.J. Ellis	2010	80
79	69	Johnny Giavotella	2017	75
80	69	Freddy Sanchez	2007	103
81	69	Victor Martinez	2008	88
82	69	Jack Hannahan	2009	73
83	69	Gregor Blanco	2013	86
84	69	Adam Rosales	2012	95
85	69	Stephen Vogt	2014	125
86	69	Ben Zobrist	2010	96
87	69	Brian Schneider	2006	72
88	69	Desmond Jennings	2016	81
89	69	David Murphy	2011	100
90	69	Xavier Paul	2014	63
91	69	Bobby Kielty	2006	91
92	69	Brett Gardner	2013	98
93	69	Chris Herrmann	2017	83
94	69	Ruben Gotay	2012	0	DNP
95	69	Skip Schumaker	2009	91
96	68	Steve Pearce	2012	96
97	68	Roger Bernadina	2013	39
98	68	Carl Taylor	1973	101
99	68	Jim Essian	1980	86
100	68	David Lough	2015	67

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2019		Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018		Since arriving from Miami in the Dee Gordon deal a few years back, Barnes has quietly and steadily evolved into the poster child of the Dodgers' penchant for developing athletic catchers. The mitt was dynamite by virtually all measurements, and in a testament to his agility he managed to log 76 innings at second base when he wasn't saving runs behind the dish. His advanced approach played well in his first sustained look at big-league pitching, with consistent gap-to-gap contact bolstering a surge in slugging. On a WARP-by-PA rate basis, he produced the second most value of any catcher in baseball. It all came to a head when he rode a hot second half to a borderline-unfathomable unseating of one of the league's most productive incumbents come playoff time. With two more pre-arbitration seasons to come, Barnes will enter 2018 as a delightful bargain for the leveraged Dodgers, and a primary driver of a classic Good Problem To Have for the team's catching depth chart.
2017		Known for his positional flexibility—he can play catcher, second and third—Austin Barnes should spend more time getting acquainted with first base, a spot he rarely reached as a major-league hitter.
2016		Barnes continued his run as one of baseball's most interesting, most overlooked prospects in 2015. He focused on logging innings behind the plate in Triple-A, and after playing in the infield 45 times in 2014, Barnes did so just twice last year. It's certainly true that he lacks an impact profile, but a backup catcher/second baseman/third baseman who can routinely make solid contact? That's a valuable asset in an era when teams need 17-man bullpens to roster all their specialists, like the arm reserved for lefties under six feet tall and that guy with a particular talent for inducing groundballs right to the bag at third base. Given the way Barnes handled Oklahoma City last season, it shouldn't be a surprise to see him spend considerable time with the Dodgers this year, though his prospects for seeing routine playing time are more dubious.
2015		He may not have been the best prospect in Miami's system, but Barnes was making a strong case as the most interesting before he was included in the Dee Gordon deal. His ascent through the minors has been slowed by the organization's deep cast of catching prospects, but he showed last year why he's part of the big-league club's future. Barnes pairs solid, but not great, defensive ability at two critical positions: catcher and second base. That's plus-plus utility. Without any loud tools, his carrying skill should still be his bat. He has a solid approach and a short swing that lends itself to line-drive power. He really stroked at Jacksonville last year, and if he was a little old for the league, well, shoot, isn't Foreigner a little old to be touring? That doesn't stop us from rocking out to Head Games more than once in a while.
2013		After serving primarily as a catcher for Arizona State, Austin Barnes successfully transitioned to second base during the second half of last year, but expectations stemming from his offensive performance in the Sally League should be tempered because he was old for the level.

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