Baseball Prospectus

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Statistics for All Levels

Statistics For All Levels

Plate Discipline

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 75)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	DRC+	Trend
1	84	Jonny Gomes	2009	114
2	83	Mark Trumbo	2014	92
3	83	Carlos Pena	2006	89
4	83	Mike Jacobs	2009	85
5	82	Matt Adams	2017	109
6	80	Ian Stewart	2013	0	DNP
7	79	Chris Duncan	2009	71
8	79	Josh Phelps	2006	0	DNP
9	78	Wilson Betemit	2010	124
10	77	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	2013	106
11	77	Don Lenhardt	1951	113
12	77	Brad Hawpe	2007	127
13	77	Mark Johnson	1996	107
14	77	Troy Neel	1994	114
15	77	Chris Shelton	2008	79
16	77	C.J. Cron	2018	118
17	77	Tony Clark	2000	109
18	77	Nick Esasky	1988	101
19	76	Kevin Maas	1993	120
20	76	Paul Sorrento	1994	103
21	76	Pedro Alvarez	2015	110
22	76	Ken Hunt	1963	75
23	76	Brett Wallace	2015	92
24	76	J.P. Arencibia	2014	93
25	76	Brian Daubach	2000	90
26	76	Adam LaRoche	2008	115
27	76	Bob Hamelin	1996	120
28	75	Carlos Delgado	2000	170
29	75	Juan Francisco	2015	0	DNP
30	75	Hee-Seop Choi	2007	0	DNP
31	75	Mike Diaz	1988	85
32	75	Khris Davis	2016	125
33	75	Brandon Belt	2016	118
34	75	Mitch Moreland	2014	80
35	75	Mike Epstein	1971	118
36	75	Tyler Moore	2015	80
37	75	Travis Hafner	2005	152
38	75	J.D. Martinez	2016	128
39	75	Cody Ross	2009	101
40	75	Dave Hostetler	1984	94
41	74	Adam Lind	2012	101
42	74	Michael Cuddyer	2007	110
43	74	Mo Vaughn	1996	146
44	74	Bob Robertson	1975	129
45	74	Brad Wilkerson	2005	96
46	74	Derrek Lee	2004	118
47	74	Ben Paulsen	2016	57
48	74	Richie Sexson	2003	138
49	74	Franklin Stubbs	1989	104
50	74	Calvin Pickering	2005	51
51	74	Jeremy Hermida	2012	70
52	73	Marv Throneberry	1962	83
53	73	Corey Dickerson	2017	109
54	73	Chris Johnson	2013	114
55	73	Gary Alexander	1981	73
56	73	Casper Wells	2013	47
57	73	Ryan Shealy	2008	129
58	73	Yan Gomes	2016	63
59	73	Chris Carter	2015	111
60	73	Allen Craig	2013	119
61	73	Earl Williams	1977	85
62	73	Gil Hodges	1952	143
63	73	Sam Horn	1992	82
64	73	Mitchell Page	1980	107
65	73	Kyle Blanks	2015	98
66	73	Joe Lis	1975	127
67	73	Curtis Granderson	2009	109
68	73	Todd Frazier	2014	123
69	73	Kirk Nieuwenhuis	2016	79
70	72	Travis Shaw	2018	120
71	72	Eric Munson	2006	77
72	72	Chris Davis	2014	102
73	72	Boog Powell	1970	153
74	72	Nate Colbert	1974	108
75	72	Bill Hall	2008	81
76	72	Jayson Nix	2011	61
77	72	Troy Glaus	2005	128
78	72	Greg Vaughn	1994	109
79	72	Erubiel Durazo	2002	140
80	72	Adam Duvall	2017	99
81	72	Dick Stuart	1961	131
82	72	Mark Canha	2017	67
83	72	Lee May	1971	149
84	72	Pat Burrell	2005	130
85	71	Alex Gordon	2012	117
86	71	Jason Kubel	2010	108
87	71	Mike Pagliarulo	1988	83
88	71	Chase Headley	2012	136
89	71	Tommy Medica	2016	0	DNP
90	71	Willie Greene	2000	70
91	71	Greg Walker	1988	91
92	71	David Ortiz	2004	143
93	71	Dean Palmer	1997	94
94	71	Matt LaPorta	2013	0	DNP
95	71	Tyler Colvin	2014	63
96	71	Dan Pasqua	1990	124
97	71	Colby Rasmus	2015	117
98	71	Josh Fields	2011	0	DNP
99	71	Leon Durham	1986	105
100	71	Joe Hauser	1927	0	DNP

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2019		Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018		Guys who are good at whacking dingers but little else will always have a place in our hearts, but where they fit into a team’s long-term plans is, well, dependent on the team. Davidson went from top prospect to someone whose contact issues had him toiling in Triple-A far longer than anyone might’ve expected, and then he became a regular for the White Sox at age 26. He’s more first baseman/designated hitter than third baseman, and one-dimensional offense makes it tough to envision a future in which he’s more than the right side of a platoon. But at least aesthetically speaking, you could do a lot worse than “dude who mashes lots of taters.”
2017		After two brutal Triple-A seasons, the hapless Matt Davidson returned to the majors and broke his foot rounding the bases in his White Sox debut. Once healthy he'll be perfectly fine corner infield depth.
2016		Davidson is the exact opposite of a "change-of-scenery" guy: He was developing just fine, then got plucked up, whisked off, and has been suffering through an extremely painful series of probes ever since. The power is still there (well, some of it is), and Davidson still takes his walks. He even acquits himself at third base, which we all used to think was his only remaining challenge. He's fanning at an untenable clip, though, and that's in Triple-A.
2015		One of Kevin Towers' many castoffs—a collective that could reconvene and probably challenge for third place—Davidson was supposed to ascend to a throne that still bears Joe Crede's buttgroove. Instead, he endured a brutal April (and, later, May, July, and August) in Triple-A while Conor Gillaspie chose "right now" to have a career year. Clearly, he'll need to get back on track if he wants another shot at the job, but he's got plenty of pop for the position, and his minor-league stats are close enough to Crede's to suggest his tush would be comfortable.
2014		Anybody trying to predict the upcoming Rookie of the Year chase realizes a big part of the prediction involves guaranteed playing time; if Davidson is given an opportunity for 130 games at third base, he'll be in the running. During his call-up in Arizona he showed he can put solid contact on the ball and pull it for extra bases, even against right-handers. His game is ready for the big leagues, and a December trade to Chicago relocated him from perhaps the worst depth chart for his positional abilities to perhaps the best. Now can we talk about why in the world you're trying to predict the upcoming Rookie of the Year chase?
2013		After splitting time at first and third base in 2011, Davidson was stationed at the hot corner for all of 2012 as the Diamondbacks assess whether the former supplemental first-rounder has a future on the left side of the infield. His offensive game took a step forward, improving in the power and patience departments, but he doesn't have a first baseman's bat. Davidson's career path will largely be dictated by his glove work at third, where a clear path to playing time exists.
2012		Davidson, a slightly better, slightly younger version of Bobby Borchering (who was selected 19 picks before him in the 2009 draft), experienced similar�albeit less severe�struggles to make contact at High-A last season. After spending 2010 trading off at the hot corner in South Bend, both played 135 games for Visalia split between the infield corners and DH. Since they appeared at the same positions for the same team, scouts had ample opportunity to make an informed comparison between the two, and most came away liking Davidson better, both for his bat and for his better chance of sticking at third thanks to a superior fielding percentage and a stronger arm. How they do at Double-A could be the real decider.
2011		The 35th overall pick in the 2009 amateur draft, Davidson is a big, slow slugger who makes up for a lack of athleticism with the ability to bop the ball around and out of the yard. His position may be listed as third base, but realistically, he's a first baseman. The righty developed power last season at South Bend, but struggled in a small sample at High-A Visalia. The Diamondbacks lack a franchise first-sacker, but with Davidson, Allen, Borchering, Brandon Allen, and Paul Goldschmidt, they may manage to strike gold with at least one and improve elsewhere by dealing the others.

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