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2019 Preseason Forecast
Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET
|2020-08-14 14:00:00 (link to chat)||I know he checks in very high on your recently released dynasty rankings, but what are your thoughts on Shohei Ohtani moving forward? Will he ever regain pitching form/Should Angels just let him hit?|
(Ben from Memphis )
|First of two Ohtani questions.
I do believe Ohtani regains his pitching form in time. Recovery from Tommy John surgery is complicated and different for each player. Since Ohtani continued to play and split his focus between hitting and recovery/pitching, his full recovery likely will take longer and look different than a normal pitcher. If, and when, he fully recovers, he has #1 overall upside as a two-way player, especially in daily leagues.
Now, I do not think it is the end of the world if Ohtani does not recover as a pitcher. He really can hit. As a full-time hitter, who may profile well in right field (for example), Ohtani could hit something like .280/35/15, which is right up there with the likes of Javier Baez.
There is plenty of risk with Ohtani. Always has been. The potential reward is sky high, however, and his strong hitting fallback does mitigate the risk, at least compared to other pitchers.
Ultimately, Ohtani owners should not bemoan his inability to pitch at the moment because he still carries loads of value as a hitter, just not #1 overall type value. (Jesse Roche)
|2020-08-14 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Please give me your best 5 dynasty buy-low targets right now!|
(Timmuh from Tampa)
|I think any top-50 hitter (Yelich, Bellinger, Lindor, Devers, etc.) who is struggling is a solid buy right now. Some owner overreact to small samples, especially in this shortened season where a few bad weeks is killer.
Five particular buy-low targets are Walker Buehler, Shohei Ohtani, Matt Olson, Blake Snell, and Victor Robles.
Players who have not played much due to COVID-related reasons like Cardinals players are solid buys right now.
I also think opt outs (Michael Kopech, Eduardo Rodriguez, David Price, etc.) are solid buys right now if you can stash them. They are out for 2020, but it is not injury-related, and they are taking value hits similar to injured players. (Jesse Roche)
|2020-04-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Why are we not seeing as much of an impact for international pitchers? A bunch in the pen, but seems like less starters. Thanks and stay safe!|
(coffeeguy8806 from Chicagoooo)
|Thanks! Hope you're staying safe as well.
This is an interesting observation. Part of the reason less international pitchers stand out is simply because the market share of international players is smaller. Players like Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto obviously stand out in a big way, and we do not see any international arms of that caliber. However, we do still have plenty of excellent international talent, including Luis Severino, Luis Castillo, Eduardo Rodriguez, Julio Urias, etc. Not to mention the Asian imports like Shohei Ohtani and Yu Darvish. Plus, there are plenty of high-end SP prospects are internationals, including Luis Patino, Sixto Sanchez, and Deivi Garcia. Of course, there are less elite
I do wonder if teams are more reluctant to dole out hefty bonuses to 16-year-old pitchers, which may force many prospective pitchers to try to make it as hitters. Pitching also has a heavy burnout rate and big workloads beginning at 16 can take a toll. Hard to say. (Jesse Roche)
|2019-06-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Given the gap between the Astros and everyone else in the AL West so far this year, and the baseline they're working from talent-wise, when do you see the potential for a challenger in the division, a la the Twins taking over Cleveland's assumed top spot in the Central? Same goes for the Dodgers and the NL West.|
(Carl from Richmond, VA)
|The Astros and Dodgers definitely seem to be better set up for the future than almost anyone in baseball, despite the incredible baseline they've been working from for three seasons now. So I know what you mean. That said, one only need to look at Cleveland to remember things can change dramatically over the course of a season (though Houston seems more inclined to plug holes with cash). I can't imagine that MIke trout, a healthy Shohei Ohtani and maybe Jo Adell won't be able to get over the .500 gap next season, and the A's seem congenitally inclined to turn on a dime. The Padres, meanwhile, loom in the NL West. It's hard to not worry that this is just how things are in MLB now, with one or two serious division races all season, but I have to hope that's not the way of the future for the league. (Ginny Searle)|
|2019-06-10 20:00:00 (link to chat)||Shohei Ohtani, the pitching version and Luis Castillo, which one do you want in 2020? After that?|
(Tom Hagen from Hot Stove)
|Ohtani for both, but I had to think about it much, much harder than I originally anticipated. I like Castillo quite a bit, but the home park/walk rate bother me. (Ben Carsley)|
|2019-04-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Dynasty league: I'm in contention in the middle of my window, with an older but not senile rotation, and a solid offense. Another team is in tank mode with all-stars from the minor leagues. He has 2 pitchers total, and has been asking about my Shohei Ohtani (Carlos Martinez and McCullers as well). If I were to give a green light on those 3, is Pete Alonso a fair ask? He doesn't have much else that can help a team like mine, and he isn't competing in the next 2-3 years.|
(Tom Hagen from Hot Stove)
|Sure that's a fine ask, though if you can play Ohtani as a hitter I do think it changes the calculus of whether you'd want to make this deal a bit. (Craig Goldstein)|
|2018-11-29 23:00:00 (link to chat)||Whose bat do you like better for the future -- Juan Soto or Shohei Ohtani?|
(TheKernel from Pasadena, CA)
|That's an interesting pairing. Give me Soto, though. It's easier'n it should be to lose sight of just how radically awesome Soto's debut was, and given the performance at *19* I'll willingly sacrifice the added value of Ohtani's eventual return to the bump for the extra 4+ years of age advantage for Childish Bambino. I might hedge and re-think a bit in daily lineup league, but don't see my answer ultimately changing. Bat only it's Soto for me, though. (Wilson Karaman)|
|2018-07-24 20:00:00 (link to chat)||In a keep forever dynasty league (20 teams), I've got a major trade brewing. Team A is a rebuilding/reloading team with Aroldis Chapman, Giancarlo Stanton, and Josh Hader. Team B is a perennial contender looking to plug some holes owning Nomar Mazara, Shohei Ohtani, and Casey Mize. Think these teams can line up with a fair deal, or is there two much value disparity?|
(Tom Hagen from The Hot Stove)
|A lot of it depends on the trading culture in the league. Most leagues have an exchange rate that is the rough baseline for deals like this, and the exchange rate isn't just a function of the league's parameters. Something could probably get done, but Mize probably isn't a #1 and Mazara and Ohtani have a fair number of question marks. Team A could probably get a better keeper asset or two than anyone that Team B has. (Scooter Hotz)|
|2018-07-24 20:00:00 (link to chat)||20-Team Keep Forever Dynasty: Bryce Harper, Carter Kieboom, Rd 1 pick, Rd 2 Pick (2-round draft, 40 picks total) for Juan Soto, Josh Hader, Shohei Ohtani (pitching version). Team getting Harper side is in the bottom 3, team getting Soto side is in top 5, fair deal?|
(AJ from Phoenix)
|Fair, yes. I like the Harper side more despite my love of Juan Soto. (Scooter Hotz)|
|2018-04-05 20:00:00 (link to chat)||Zack Greinke and Shohei Ohtani should share the award for biggest sand-baggers of Spring Training. |
(Mr. Fister from Arlington)
|and the show should be on closed circuit television. (Mike Gianella)|
|2018-04-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)||What's the best way to use Shohei Ohtani in a weekly league that forces you to choose him as a pitcher or batter? Is he worth the hassle of figuring out how best to use him, or should he be traded for a star one-way player while the hype is high?|
(Two Way Playa from Minneapolis)
|I'm in the same boat. Right now, I'm using him as a SP. It's a bit based on your team needs, but my default is to bet on his pitching upside. He'll never be a two-start option, but you saw his second game. He doesn't need a second start to earn value in a week. If you do decide to sell, don't go cheap. As I said, I traded Goldy and Arrieta (before he signed) to get Ohtani and Josh Bell. SP are more valuable in my points format. You can get someone to pay (overpay) if you are simply too frustrated. (Kevin Jebens)|
|2018-02-28 20:00:00 (link to chat)||Brett Sayre ranked Shohei Ohtani, Keston Hiura, Luis Robert, Royce Lewis, and Jo Adell, respectively, as his top 5 new-signees going into 2018. Do you agree with this ranking or do you see something different that really sticks out to you?|
(Ron from Texarkana)
|I go Ohtani, Robert, Lewis, Hiura and Adell. I think Robert has #1 prospect in baseball upside. (Eddy Almaguer)|
|2018-01-31 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Which rookies will have the most impact this season?|
(Buddy from Peoria, IL)
|Would it be cheating to say Shohei Ohtani? Or Ronald Acuna? If so, I think we'll hear from Alex Reyes, Willie Calhoun, and Lewis Brinson for sure. I kind of like Jesse Winker too. Also, Jake Bauers might be a good under-the-radar guy we didn't expect much from, but comes up to do damage. (Mark Barry)|
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