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Chat: Mike Gianella

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Thursday April 05, 2018 8:00 PM ET chat session with Mike Gianella.


Mike is the Senior Fantasy Writer at Baseball Prospectus, and co-host of Flags Fly Forever.

Mike Gianella: Watching the exciting conclusion to the snowy Tigers/White Sox game. Let's chat about baseball for a couple of hours.

kuff6 (Cubeville): Gsellman or J Hicks for 5x5 no keeper? I guess if you squint, Hicks has a shot at saves, but G'man likely to get more innings/more impact on ratios?

Mike Gianella: For a non-keeper I'll take Gsellman. Hicks could wind up back in the minors at some point.

rpo (LA): Re two 1Bs with nice starts, how far apart in value do you have Hanley and Jose Martinez?

Mike Gianella: If I were drafting today, I'd put Martinez a round ahead of Hanley. Still think Hanley is going to miss some time with injury at some point.

Mr. Fister (Arlington): What is the ceiling for Jesus Luzardo? Can he reach the majors in '19?

Mike Gianella: A #2 if everything breaks right. Yes if everything breaks right. I'd say there's a 5-10% chance of either of these things happening.

Mike Gianella (Sitting in your chair): Inception

Mike Gianella: This reminds me more of "Hare Brush", the 1955 Bugs Bunny cartoon where Elmer Fudd has a nervous breakdown and winds up thinking he is a rabbit. He is committed to an asylum, but then manages to get Bugs to switch places with him. Bugs is brainwashed into thinking he's Fudd while Elmer is now acting like a bunny. Bugs gets out of the asylum but while he is hunting Elmer (dressed as a bunny) the IRS shows up for him and arrests him for income tax evasion. Fudd laughs, breaking the fourth wall and asking the audience "now who's the screwball." In this analogy, you are Bugs and I am Elmer Fudd. I do not feel remorse.

Matt Damon (Film Actor's Guild): MATT. DAMON.

Mike Gianella: BEN AFFLECK

dylanrox (New Orleans): In a h2h 14 team/5 keeper points format I'm rostering both Jack Flaherty and Ryan McMahon. Trying to hold onto both for as long as i can but 5 man bench makes it tough Which of them is most expendable and which is more likely to become a possible trade chip for me this summer when coveted prospects become gold? Thanks

Mike Gianella: In that format I'd drop McMahon. I think Flaherty is back sooner rather than later and will have more value as a trade chip.

fearlessraccoon (Chicago): About Miggy's "hip pointer injury" today - how long could he be out, and might there be lingering effects on his power? Asking for a "friend" whose fantasy baseball auction is this weekend....

Mike Gianella: Hard to say right now. I'd guess 2-4 weeks is the worst case and I'd drop him down $4-5. I'm not a Miggy guy to begin with and think the herniated disks in his back are already a drag on his power.

Mr. Fister (Arlington): How much WAR does Ohtani end the season with?

Mike Gianella: 69 divided by 10.

Mr. Fister (Arlington): Conforto with the big fly! So far, so good! Now it is just a matter of time before the Mets get him hurt again.

Mike Gianella: This isn't a question.

Wander Javier (Florida): Where is my fan club that always shows up for these chats?

Mike Gianella: Doug Fister asked about 2/3rds of my questions. I hope it's more than just him.

Frank (Brooklyn): Is Luis Medina overhyped?

Mike Gianella: No.

Brandon (Chicago): I have Moncada, Merrifield, Dozier, and LeMahieu. Who do I trade and what's optimal value of that deal?

Mike Gianella: I'd move Merrifield. Depends on your needs. I'd say an SP3 in a mixed league or a mid-tier power guy.

Royce Lewis (Cedar Rapids): In 5 years I am the..., A) starting shortstop for the Twins B) starting center fielder C) I go Ohtani and become their number 1 starter.

Mike Gianella: D) you're starting at third.

fearlessraccoon (Chicago): Danny Jansen or Jake Rogers as AL catching prospects - either worth drafting?

Mike Gianella: I like Jansen. Still think there's an outside chance he's starting for the Jays by September.

Dave (Harrisonburg): Do you think Matt Olson will be able to make adjustments and continue to be a threat in the middle of the order? So far he's looked foolish striking out on breaking stuff.

Mike Gianella: I think he'll make the adjustments to start hitting for power again but do think the AVG will be low.

dan22ke9 (Saturated left field): So everyone jumps on pulling Nola after 50some pitches, but nothing is said about Mattingly poor decision to allow Bour to run for himself. Situation Marlins are trailing 2-1. They get a man on and Bour gets walked. There are 2 out. Maybrin is the hitter. Knowing a single May tie game, and a double could win and there are 2 outs. No pinch runner for Bour and he is out at plate on close play. Game goes to extra innings and Marlins lose 3-2.Mattingly has tied the Philly Mgr for most blown games by a Manager in 2018.

Mike Gianella: The narrative surrounding the Marlins is that they'll lose 100+ games. So no one outside of South Florida is looking at in-game decisions. Is it fair? No. But that's the way the media is.

Dave (Harrisonburg): Why does it seem like the Athletics get hit by the Tommy John bug more than most teams?

Mike Gianella: Don't know. It could be that a staff of mostly younger pitchers has to shoulder a larger burden and is at more of an injury risk. But I'm spitballing. I'd have to dive into the data.

Dave N (NY): Hey Mike - has Joey Votto historically got off to slow starts like this?

Mike Gianella: His worst month last year was April (although it was a solid month). But he was very bad in 2016 and didn't pick it up until June. So yes.

Chris (Pittsburgh): Is this the year Tim Anderson stops teasing us?

Mike Gianella: He'll take a step forward. But the K/BB rate will make him a "disappointment" if you're expecting him to be an elite player.

Ken (Fairfax): If you were the A's what positions do you put Franklin Barreto, Jorge Mateo, and Sheldon Neuse? Third base is blocked with Matt Chapman. Are any of them better shortstops, defensively, than Marcus Semien? And the A's seem intent on using Dustin Fowler in centerfield once healthy.

Mike Gianella: Barreto second base, Mateo center field and Neuse first base. They're going to need to make some trades or see some injuries but these things have a way of working themselves out.

dylanrox (New Orleans): I played chicken at SS in my 14 team points league and rolled with Ketel in week 1. Now i've swapped him for Aledmys Diaz. If he's healthy is Diaz an upgrade over Marte? Also available are Duffy, Galvis, Solarte, Swanson Owings and Marte. Thanks

Mike Gianella: I prefer Marte to Diaz. I'd go with Solarte.

Mr. Fister (Arlington): In a hypothetical situation in which the MLB institutes the "runner starts on second base in extra innings" rule, how would that affect fantasy? If the runner on 2nd is the last person to hit in the previous inning, what if he struck out? Does it now count in fantasy if he steals a base or scores a run after being placed on 2nd? I can't even tell you how much I hate the thought of that rule ever being installed.

Mike Gianella: That runner would get credit for the run or gets the steal. If you didn't want that you would probably have to find a stat service that offered a great deal of customization.

Alex (CA): I picked up Alex Bregman on waivers in my 16 tm league. What should I have for dinner tonight to celebrate? Tacos, sushi, steak, or gourmet burger?

Mike Gianella: tacos.

Mr. Fister (Arlington): Have you ever seen anyone with as big of a head as Bradley Zimmer?

Mike Gianella: My cousin Joe. Sorry if you're reading this Joe, but you made me miss most of Titanic at our family reunion/movie outing.

Mr. Fister (Arlington): All of these postponements are ridiculous. Does the MLB need to reconsider the way it schedules early season series in Northern ballparks? If you're North of I-70, you should be required to play in a dome.

Mike Gianella: They should consider making the schedule shorter or adding double headers.

Ken (Fairfax): So dump Olson in favor of Neuse down the road?

Mike Gianella: Maybe in couple of years. I wouldn't even consider doing that now.

rrydelek (Moon): Any opinion on Bryan Mitchell getting his act together this year in SD? First start was atrocious.

Mike Gianella: I'm not in the Mitchell camp and think he's just a guy. Back end streamer in mixed/NL-only for me.

Mr. Fister (Arlington): At this point in his career, if Alex Gordon was to be DFA'd, and cleared waivers, would the Royals be able to send him to the minors without his permission? If the guy can't bat his own weight, he has no business on an MLB roster.

Mike Gianella: I think at this point given his contract they'd have to get his permission. It's more likely he'd accept his release and see if another team would give him an opportunity.

Toddimus Opolis (MA): Is it time to shop Corbin? I need an upgrade at 2nd in a 10 team mixed that has AVG and OBP Currently have C Hernandez. Was thinking of trading for Whit Merrifeld.

Mike Gianella: You can sell high on Corbin. That's OK to do although in a joint AVG/OBP format I'm not sure how much of an upgrade that is.

Mr. Fister (Arlington): Am I the only one who looks at the Twin's rotation and sees no possible way of it leading them to the playoffs? Kyle Gibson, the inevitable 2nd half meltdown of Lance Lynn, terrible depth, etc......

Mike Gianella: I didn't pick them for the Wild Card, although there isn't a dominant team beyond the top four in the AL. I could see the Twins or another team winning 83-85 and sneaking in to the Wild Card game.

Mr. Fister (Arlington): All things considered, including salaries, who are the worst three players currently with jobs in the MLB? I say Alex Gordon, Panda, and Albert Pujols.

Mike Gianella: It's probably Pujols.

Mr. Fister (Arlington): I realize that it is a sss, but is Amed Rosario being wasted in the 9 hole?

Mike Gianella: A little bit. I'm not a big lineup construction guy. He does lose some plate appearances, but in terms of him stealing/scoring runs it's better to have him ninth than seventh.

Mr. Fister (Arlington): Zack Greinke and Shohei Ohtani should share the award for biggest sand-baggers of Spring Training.

Mike Gianella: and the show should be on closed circuit television.

Mr. Fister (Arlington): I've been hearing that the reports on Miles Mikolas were pretty good. Could he end up as the biggest bargain of the off-season?

Mike Gianella: there were so many cheap/discount contracts that I will say no.

Mr. Fister (Arlington): The Royals lineup is atrocious! That is all.

Mike Gianella: yes, although two months ago it looked so much worse.

Mr. Fister (Arlington): I was thinking the other day about how bad of a job Gabe Kapler has done in his brief managing audition, and I immediately wondered what manager in MLB history managed the fewest amount of games before being fired. Does Kapler have a chance at being the shortest tenured manager ever?

Mike Gianella: I'm guessing no. Either George Steinbrenner or some old timey owner fired someone very quickly.

Mr. Fister (Arlington): Charlie Blackmon is a smart man! If he would have gone to free agency, teams would have low-balled him due to the "Coors effect." I think we are going to start to see a whole lot of younger players being more open to signing extensions as opposed to trusting the free agent process after this joke of an off-season.

Mike Gianella: Maybe, although Blackmon isn't that young.

Mr. Fister (Arlington): How will Mondesi be deployed when he comes off of the DL? Shouldn't the Royals be trying to get him as many abs as possible this year?

Mike Gianella: Either second base or shortstop. They might want to give him one more trip to the minors.

Mr. Fister (Arlington): Am I the only one who thinks it is sad when a guy like Jack Flaherty has his career stalled because Adam Wainright doesn't know when to call it quits? I don't see the logic in continuing to toy with a broken down shell of a formerly good pitcher when you have a major league ready prospect who has nothing left to prove in the minors.

Mike Gianella: I don't think you're the only one.

Mr. Fister (Arlington): Is Yonny Chirinos worth even looking at in fantasy?

Mike Gianella: yes in deeper formats.

Brandon (Tulsa ): At what point in a dynasty do you start rebuilding. I have a team that's aging quickly and I'm certainly not a top 5 team. It's a 20 team league with older players like Greinke, Votto, Braun, and Yadi I'd like to sell while they still have value.

Mike Gianella: Depends on the format but I'd think about it next month.

Mike Gianella: I had a wonderful time. I hope you did to. But now it's time to bid you farewell until next time. See you soon.

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