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Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 77)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	DRC+	Trend
1	85	Ronny Paulino	2009	101
2	83	Martin Maldonado	2015	69
3	83	Jett Bandy	2018	63
4	82	Robbie Grossman	2018	105
5	82	Hank Conger	2016	68
6	82	Brayan Pena	2010	77
7	81	J.R. Towles	2012	0	DNP
8	80	Devin Mesoraco	2016	67
9	80	Charlie Blackmon	2015	104
10	80	Yonder Alonso	2015	99
11	79	Travis d'Arnaud	2017	99
12	79	Rob Johnson	2011	61
13	79	Roberto Perez	2017	80
14	79	Josh Thole	2015	81
15	79	John Jaso	2012	128
16	79	Conor Gillaspie	2016	99
17	79	Luis Valbuena	2014	109
18	79	James McCann	2018	72
19	79	JD Closser	2008	0	DNP
20	78	George Kottaras	2011	92
21	78	Jason Jaramillo	2011	84
22	78	Cliff Pennington	2012	78
23	78	Sandy Leon	2017	74
24	78	Cody Asche	2018	0	DNP
25	78	Ben Zobrist	2009	143
26	78	Michael McKenry	2013	91
27	78	Gerald Laird	2008	92
28	77	Dioner Navarro	2012	91
29	77	Chris Burke	2008	77
30	77	Andy LaRoche	2012	0	DNP
31	77	Chris Coghlan	2013	80
32	77	David Murphy	2010	116
33	77	Brock Holt	2016	88
34	77	Jonathan Lucroy	2014	130
35	77	Ryan Garko	2009	105
36	77	Andres Blanco	2012	0	DNP
37	77	Welington Castillo	2015	103
38	77	Kurt Suzuki	2012	78
39	76	Tony Cruz	2015	59
40	76	Domonic Brown	2016	0	DNP
41	76	Jordan Pacheco	2014	81
42	76	Chris Snyder	2009	89
43	76	Matt Murton	2010	0	DNP
44	76	Jason Bartlett	2008	86
45	76	Trevor Crowe	2012	0	DNP
46	76	Brandon Phillips	2009	101
47	76	Jeremy Reed	2009	63
48	76	Chone Figgins	2006	92
49	76	John Wockenfuss	1977	117
50	76	Marlon Byrd	2006	87
51	75	Jose Lobaton	2013	93
52	75	Russ Adams	2009	84
53	75	Hank Deberry	1923	91
54	75	Curtis Casali	2017	94
55	75	Jim Price	1970	92
56	75	Roger Bernadina	2012	97
57	75	Brendan Harris	2009	83
58	75	Travis Buck	2012	67
59	75	Paul Janish	2011	63
60	75	John Baker	2009	87
61	75	Cameron Rupp	2017	79
62	75	Matt LaPorta	2013	0	DNP
63	75	Aaron Hicks	2018	121
64	75	Willy Aybar	2011	0	DNP
65	75	Geno Petralli	1988	114
66	75	Ramon Hernandez	2004	110
67	75	Kevin Pillar	2017	87
68	75	Hector Sanchez	2018	0	DNP
69	75	Travis Snider	2016	0	DNP
70	75	Casey McGehee	2011	76
71	75	Ty Wigginton	2006	108
72	75	Victor Martinez	2007	127
73	75	Billy Sullivan	1939	92
74	75	Adam Rosales	2011	76
75	75	Danny Valencia	2013	119
76	75	Leonys Martin	2016	82
77	74	Bennie Tate	1930	88
78	74	Gus Mancuso	1934	75
79	74	Ryan Lavarnway	2016	0	DNP
80	74	Jeff Mathis	2011	46
81	74	Ron Hodges	1977	85
82	74	Joe Astroth	1951	70
83	74	Eduardo Nunez	2015	92
84	74	Charlie Moore	1981	99
85	74	Daniel Descalso	2015	76
86	74	John Stearns	1980	97
87	74	Chris Herrmann	2016	92
88	74	Sherm Lollar	1953	115
89	74	Reggie Willits	2009	59
90	74	Keith Osik	1997	75
91	74	Yangervis Solarte	2016	109
92	74	Austin Romine	2017	66
93	74	Johnny Gooch	1926	88
94	74	Jemile Weeks	2015	79
95	74	Hector Luna	2008	89
96	74	Freddy Sanchez	2006	108
97	74	Kevin Youkilis	2007	127
98	74	Gabe Gross	2008	101
99	74	Ron Hassey	1981	84
100	74	Justin Turner	2013	91

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2019		Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018		It seemed, for a while at least, that Plawecki was the backstop of the future in Flushing, a contact hitter who would hit enough to keep him behind the plate. However, his bat never made it to the majors, which happens both more often than you'd think and more than some prospect writers would like to admit. Instead he became a backup behind the oft-injured Travis d'Arnaud because even a catcher with a .237 TAv in his first two major-league seasons is valuable if he's cheap enough. That's what Plawecki was until 2017, when suddenly his bat showed up. In just 37 major-league games—he had been disappointing enough that the Mets gave most of his playing time to Rene Rivera—he showed some pop and cut down drastically on his strikeouts despite not changing his approach or his batted-ball profile. If the real Plawecki sits halfway between his 2016 and 2017 seasons offensively, there's still a reasonable argument to be made that he should start behind the plate for the Mets in 2018 due to his track record of strong framing skills.
2017		Sometimes a player's profile is very different from what you expect it to be. Kevin Plawecki was supposed to be average at pretty much everything. In our 2015 Mets prospect list, he was graded as a 50 or 50-plus on every tool except speed, and gave his realistic outcome as a Role 5 average big-league catcher. Plawecki was one of the least controversial prospects in the game, with large-scale agreement that this is what he'd become. Now, of course, the Plawecki that has emerged is a superlative defensive catcher who can't hit a lick. What the heck happened here? Entering 2016, the theory was that sinus-related vertigo issues crippled his 2015 offensive output...and then he was even worse in the majors in 2016. Catchers are freaking weird.
2016		Plawecki needs playing time badly, but he's trapped behind one of the game's better offensive catchers. When Travis d'Arnaud added to his lengthy injury history in late April, Plawecki got a shot at the starting job. He didn't take his chance, though, and now seems destined for backup typecasting based on one bad season. Plawecki swung and missed at 42 percent of breaking pitches he saw in his debut season, but he isn't a free swinger, and he doesn't expand the zone. He just needs to acclimate. He's also a good example of how a soccer-style loan system might help some players gain much-needed playing time when injuries open up spots on other teams, but that's a topic for another book.
2015		Amazin' that Travis d'Arnaud received Rookie of the Year votes, and yet Plawecki might still be the Mets' catcher of the future. The 2012 first-round pick from Purdue proved himself too advanced for Double-A and held his own at Triple-A Las Vegas for the final two months of 2014. Plawecki's exceptionally mature approach held up through the high minors, but most notable was that he logged only one game at first base. His mediocre arm masks solid receiving skills; Plawecki can absolutely stay at the position. The bigger decision concerns his facial hair, because “2 o'clock shadow” is not ever going to be a thing.
2014		A mini-slump to end his first full professional season was just a blip on the radar for Plawecki, who should be a fast riser from here on in. Yet a key question has cropped up: Is he a first baseman or a catcher? The Mets gave him an extended run at first base, but all indications are he�s an asset behind the dish despite an average arm. As with Plawecki�s fandom of both Tim Tebow and Ke$ha, the Mets really need to pick one and move forward. Plawecki makes great contact with a superb eye, so a major-league regular will find himself under pressure soon�whether that�s Travis d�Arnaud or the Mets' first baseman du jour remains to be seen.
2013		Kevin Plawecki was a 2012 sandwich pick from Purdue with fantastic contact skills, only a modest likelihood to add power, and a defensive package that, outside of a mediocre arm, will easily permit him to stay at catcher.

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