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2nd Order Winning Percentage substitutes projected runs scored for actual runs scored. This calculates, based on a team's underlying stats, how many runs they "should have" scored and uses that in the Pythagenpat method.
Uses Equivalent Runs scored and allowed, which are calculated from run components (hits, walks, total bases, stolen bases, outs, etc.) and adjusted for park and league scoring levels.
Clay Davenport introduces higher-order winning percentage in this article.
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