Baseball Prospectus

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Statistics For All Levels

Plate Discipline

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 78)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	DRC+	Trend
1	88	Alex Presley	2013	83
2	88	Alejandro De Aza	2011	112
3	87	Ben Francisco	2009	104
4	86	Grant Green	2015	64
5	86	Ryan Church	2006	101
6	85	Tyler Collins	2017	74
7	84	Andy Dirks	2013	88
8	84	Lou Montanez	2009	81
9	83	David Peralta	2015	122
10	83	Alex Dickerson	2017	0	DNP
11	83	Ryan Rua	2017	65
12	81	Juan Rivera	2006	128
13	81	Jake Smolinski	2016	90
14	81	Jorge Piedra	2006	67
15	80	Darrell Ceciliani	2017	101
16	80	Aaron Altherr	2018	73
17	80	Logan Schafer	2014	65
18	80	John Bowker	2011	54
19	79	Daniel Ortmeier	2008	54
20	79	Paul McAnulty	2008	81
21	79	Lance Niekro	2006	73
22	79	Scott Hairston	2007	95
23	79	Preston Tucker	2018	87
24	79	Bryan Petersen	2013	0	DNP
25	79	Seth Smith	2010	106
26	79	Ryan Langerhans	2007	55
27	79	Stephen Vogt	2012	90
28	79	Ryan Kalish	2015	0	DNP
29	79	Lorenzo Cain	2013	83
30	78	Will Venable	2010	96
31	78	Stefen Romero	2016	88
32	78	Fred Lewis	2008	89
33	78	O'Koyea Dickson	2017	84
34	78	Charlie Blackmon	2014	106
35	78	Brett Carroll	2010	67
36	78	Brian Goodwin	2018	82
37	78	Delwyn Young	2009	76
38	78	Jesus Montero	2017	0	DNP
39	78	Matt Long	2014	0	DNP
40	77	Nick Franklin	2018	80
41	77	Nate Schierholtz	2011	107
42	77	Shane Costa	2009	0	DNP
43	77	David Murphy	2009	106
44	77	Aaron Cunningham	2013	0	DNP
45	77	Jordy Mercer	2014	90
46	77	Ty Wright	2012	0	DNP
47	77	Nolan Reimold	2011	108
48	77	Abraham Almonte	2016	74
49	77	Casey McGehee	2010	109
50	76	Jayson Nix	2010	89
51	76	Allen Craig	2012	125
52	76	Steve Pearce	2010	84
53	76	Trayvon Robinson	2015	0	DNP
54	76	Garrett Jones	2008	0	DNP
55	76	Cody Asche	2017	57
56	76	Trayce Thompson	2018	50
57	76	Matt Den Dekker	2015	101
58	76	Mikie Mahtook	2017	101
59	76	Kevin Pillar	2016	81
60	76	Eric Thames	2014	0	DNP
61	76	Jason Coats	2017	0	DNP
62	76	Brandon Moss	2011	72
63	76	Collin Cowgill	2013	63
64	76	Alfredo Marte	2016	0	DNP
65	75	Xavier Paul	2012	93
66	75	Josh Phegley	2015	101
67	75	Brennan Boesch	2012	79
68	75	Destin Hood	2017	0	DNP
69	75	Josh Donaldson	2013	140
70	75	Chris Heisey	2012	86
71	75	Christian Colonel	2009	0	DNP
72	75	Ben Johnson	2008	0	DNP
73	75	Lastings Milledge	2012	0	DNP
74	75	Tyler Naquin	2018	79
75	75	Jeremy Reed	2008	75
76	75	Jeff Fiorentino	2010	0	DNP
77	75	Zack Cozart	2013	79
78	75	Eugenio Velez	2009	83
79	75	Scott Cousins	2012	53
80	75	Adam Rosales	2010	95
81	75	Charles Thomas	2006	0	DNP
82	75	Jefry Marte	2018	81
83	75	Chris Nelson	2013	68
84	75	Roger Bernadina	2011	84
85	75	Luke Hughes	2012	55
86	74	Brendan Harris	2008	84
87	74	Shawn Garrett	2006	0	DNP
88	74	Jeff Baker	2008	86
89	74	Kory Casto	2009	0	DNP
90	74	Dave Sappelt	2014	0	DNP
91	74	Andy Marte	2011	0	DNP
92	74	Matt Miller	2010	0	DNP
93	74	Danny Putnam	2010	0	DNP
94	74	Phil Gosselin	2016	77
95	74	Clint Barmes	2006	57
96	74	Caleb Gindl	2016	0	DNP
97	74	Chris Herrmann	2015	55
98	74	Leonard Davis	2011	0	DNP
99	74	Chris Carter	2010	101
100	74	Ryan Spilborghs	2007	107

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2019		Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018		Author of one of the better feel-good redemption stories of 2016, Andrew Toles got off to another solid start in his second big-league season before blowing out his knee in early May.
2017		Perhaps the best current example of the prospect mantra "development isn't linear," Toles took the long route to the majors, if such a thing exists for a 24-year-old. The Rays—then helmed by Andrew Friedman—selected Toles out of Chipola Junior College, where he attended after being dismissed from the University of Tennessee in 2011. He went on to swipe 62 bases during his first year in full-season ball, but missed two months in 2014 due to personal reasons—later reported as anxiety—and was released in early 2015. Toles spent most of that year out of organized baseball, at one point bagging groceries at a local Kroger. The Dodgers signed him to a minor league deal after the 2015 season, and he was assigned to High-A to open season one of his career's second act. It took him three months to breeze through Double- and Triple-A, and he was electrifying in his debut season both on offense and defense (he recorded six outfield assists in only 48 games). His whirlwind ride culminated in eight postseason starts and an .878 postseason OPS. The son of New Orleans Saints first-rounder Alvin, Toles spent some of his time away from baseball accompanying his father on one of his long-haul truck routes in an effort to gain some clarity. The Dodgers hope the message turns out to be as literal as it was figurative: keep on trucking.
2015		Andrew Toles, the organization's Minor League Player of the Year in 2013, was benched in late May for not hustling. Four days later he left the Charlotte Stone Crabs for personal reasons and did not return, though he reappeared in the Gulf Coast League at the end of the season.
2014		A third-round pick in 2010, Toles' tools exploded last year. The Rays' 2013 minor-league player of the year led the Midwest League in hitting while swiping 62 bases. His speed has helped him overcome his size to this point, but at advanced levels and as he slows with age, the lack of physicality might become an issue. He will also need to improve his overall plate discipline, especially with two strikes. He has enough natural ability to be an average hitter or better. Defensively, Toles tracks down balls in center field with ease and should continue to play the position.

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