Biographical

Portrait of Danny Duffy

Danny Duffy PDodgers

Dodgers Player Cards | Dodgers Team Audit | Dodgers Depth Chart

2019 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 30)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
114.0 4.54 1.35 101 6 8 0 0.9
Birth Date12-21-1988
Height6' 3"
Weight205 lbs
Age33 years, 6 months, 16 days
BatsL
ThrowsL
-1.22015
3.52016
2.82017
-0.42018
0.92019
proj
WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA..
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA- WARP
2011 KCA MLB 20 20 105.3 4 8 0 119 51 87 15 107 10.2 4.4 1.3 7.4 0% .329 1.61 4.85 5.64 120 6.47 150.4 -1.8
2012 KCA MLB 6 6 27.7 2 2 0 26 18 28 2 99 8.5 5.9 0.7 9.1 0% .329 1.59 3.91 3.90 119 5.94 136.3 -0.3
2013 KCA MLB 5 5 24.3 2 0 0 19 14 22 0 101 7.0 5.2 0.0 8.1 0% .284 1.36 3.11 1.85 124 5.88 140.7 -0.3
2014 KCA MLB 31 25 149.3 9 12 0 113 53 113 12 103 6.8 3.2 0.7 6.8 0% .239 1.11 3.85 2.53 116 5.03 123.4 -0.4
2015 KCA MLB 30 24 136.7 7 8 1 137 53 102 15 105 9.0 3.5 1.0 6.7 0% .298 1.39 4.39 4.08 119 5.77 134.7 -1.2
2016 KCA MLB 42 26 179.7 12 3 0 163 42 188 27 104 8.2 2.1 1.4 9.4 37% .291 1.14 3.78 3.51 95 3.65 80.7 3.5
2017 KCA MLB 24 24 146.3 9 10 0 143 41 130 13 104 8.8 2.5 0.8 8.0 41% .309 1.26 3.44 3.81 92 3.87 82.4 2.8
2018 KCA MLB 28 28 155.0 8 12 0 161 70 141 23 103 9.3 4.1 1.3 8.2 36% .304 1.49 4.73 4.88 115 5.54 123.8 -0.4
2019 KCA MLB 23 23 130.7 7 6 0 125 46 115 21 100 8.6 3.2 1.4 7.9 36% .285 1.31 4.81 4.34 110 5.35 109.7 0.6
CareerMLB2091811055.06061110063889261281048.63.31.17.938%.2921.324.193.981105.03113.72.6

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg LG G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA-
2007 ROY Rk AZL 11 9 37.3 2 3 0 24 17 63 0 102 5.8 4.1 0.0 15.2 0% .324 1.10 2.47 1.45 78 2.56 52.6
2008 BUR A MDW 17 17 81.7 8 4 0 56 25 102 4 96 6.2 2.8 0.4 11.2 0% .274 0.99 2.46 2.20 73 2.74 56.2
2009 WIL A+ CRL 24 24 126.7 9 3 0 108 41 125 6 92 7.7 2.9 0.4 8.9 0% .297 1.18 2.98 2.98 84 3.42 72.0
2010 WIL A+ CRL 3 3 14.0 0 0 0 8 7 18 2 103 5.1 4.5 1.3 11.6 0% .214 1.07 4.39 2.57 0 0.00 0.0
2010 NWA AA TXS 7 7 39.7 5 2 0 38 9 41 3 114 8.6 2.0 0.7 9.3 0% .327 1.18 2.76 2.95 0 0.00 0.0
2010 IDA Rk PIO 2 2 6.0 0 1 0 4 0 6 0 123 6.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 0% .250 0.67 2.44 1.50 0 0.00 0.0
2010 ROY Rk AZL 2 2 2.7 0 0 0 2 1 4 0 87 6.7 3.3 0.0 13.3 0% .400 1.11 2.40 3.33 0 0.00 0.0
2010 gcr Wnt AFL 7 3 15.7 1 1 1 17 9 18 3 9.7 5.2 1.7 10.3 0% .311 1.66 6.47 8.03 0 0.00 0.0
2011 KCA MLB AL 20 20 105.3 4 8 0 119 51 87 15 107 10.2 4.4 1.3 7.4 0% .329 1.61 4.85 5.64 120 6.47 150.4
2011 OMA AAA PCL 8 8 42.0 3 1 0 37 10 48 5 110 7.9 2.1 1.1 10.3 0% .305 1.12 3.97 3.43 71 2.22 45.3
2012 KCA MLB AL 6 6 27.7 2 2 0 26 18 28 2 99 8.5 5.9 0.7 9.1 0% .329 1.59 3.91 3.90 119 5.94 136.3
2013 KCA MLB AL 5 5 24.3 2 0 0 19 14 22 0 101 7.0 5.2 0.0 8.1 0% .284 1.36 3.11 1.85 124 5.88 140.7
2013 NWA AA TEX 4 4 16.0 0 2 0 16 5 28 3 97 9.0 2.8 1.7 15.8 0% .448 1.31 3.49 3.94 75 3.98 86.4
2013 OMA AAA PCL 12 10 53.0 3 0 0 50 25 59 4 88 8.5 4.2 0.7 10.0 0% .329 1.42 3.84 4.08 94 4.64 100.8
2014 KCA MLB AL 31 25 149.3 9 12 0 113 53 113 12 103 6.8 3.2 0.7 6.8 0% .239 1.11 3.85 2.53 116 5.03 123.4
2014 OMA AAA PCL 1 1 6.0 1 0 0 5 1 4 1 99 7.5 1.5 1.5 6.0 0% .250 1.00 5.02 3.00 106 4.14 87.6
2015 KCA MLB AL 30 24 136.7 7 8 1 137 53 102 15 105 9.0 3.5 1.0 6.7 0% .298 1.39 4.39 4.08 119 5.77 134.7
2015 OMA AAA PCL 3 3 8.0 0 0 0 5 1 10 1 102 5.6 1.1 1.1 11.3 0% .211 0.75 3.47 2.25 70 1.58 34.7
2016 KCA MLB AL 42 26 179.7 12 3 0 163 42 188 27 104 8.2 2.1 1.4 9.4 37% .291 1.14 3.78 3.51 95 3.65 80.7
2017 KCA MLB AL 24 24 146.3 9 10 0 143 41 130 13 104 8.8 2.5 0.8 8.0 41% .309 1.26 3.44 3.81 92 3.87 82.4
2017 OMA AAA PCL 2 2 7.3 0 1 0 6 1 8 1 124 7.4 1.2 1.2 9.8 30% .263 0.95 3.72 3.68 79 3.18 67.8
2018 KCA MLB AL 28 28 155.0 8 12 0 161 70 141 23 103 9.3 4.1 1.3 8.2 36% .304 1.49 4.73 4.88 115 5.54 123.8
2019 KCA MLB AL 23 23 130.7 7 6 0 125 46 115 21 100 8.6 3.2 1.4 7.9 36% .285 1.31 4.81 4.34 110 5.35 109.7
2019 NWA AA TEX 2 2 10.3 1 0 0 8 0 11 1 97 7.0 0.0 0.9 9.6 46% .280 0.77 2.87 0.87 81 3.24 66.6

Plate Discipline

YEAR Pits Zone% Swing% Contact% Z-Swing% O-Swing% Z-Contact% O-Contact% SwStr%
2011 1953 0.5269 0.4368 0.7984 0.5986 0.2565 0.8506 0.6624 0.2016
2012 523 0.5086 0.4455 0.7639 0.6165 0.2685 0.8476 0.5652 0.2361
2013 467 0.4839 0.4475 0.7512 0.6770 0.2324 0.7974 0.6250 0.2488
2014 2300 0.5352 0.4700 0.8279 0.6596 0.2516 0.8818 0.6654 0.1721
2015 2358 0.5216 0.4712 0.7984 0.6512 0.2748 0.8414 0.6871 0.2016
2016 2706 0.5140 0.5096 0.7252 0.6902 0.3186 0.7948 0.5656 0.2748
2017 2271 0.5328 0.4985 0.7535 0.6554 0.3195 0.8398 0.5516 0.2465
2018 2776 0.4914 0.4582 0.7649 0.6613 0.2620 0.8259 0.6162 0.2351
2019 2161 0.5118 0.4729 0.7583 0.6627 0.2739 0.8417 0.5467 0.2417
Career175150.51690.47340.77260.65570.27880.83690.61130.2274

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-09-07 - DTD - - Left Shoulder Inflammation Rotator Cuff -
2013-09-08 2013-09-30 15-DL 22 20 Left Elbow Strain Flexor Strain - -
2013-03-22 2013-06-25 60-DL 95 73 Left Elbow Recovery From Surgery Tommy John Surgery 2012-06-13 -
2012-05-14 2012-10-04 60-DL 143 129 Left Elbow Surgery Tommy John Surgery 2012-06-13 -
2012-04-23 2012-05-03 DTD 10 8 Left Elbow Inflammation - -
2011-06-19 2011-06-19 DTD 0 0 Left Lower Leg Cramp Calf -
2010-04-08 2010-08-02 Minors 116 0 Left Elbow Sprain Ulnar Collateral Ligament - -
2010-03-07 2010-03-11 Camp 4 0 Left Elbow Soreness -
2009-07-29 2009-08-15 Minors 17 0 - Not Disclosed - -
2009-07-08 2009-07-18 Minors 10 0 - Not Disclosed - -
2008-08-19 2008-09-11 Minors 23 0 - Not Disclosed - -
2008-04-03 2008-05-19 Minors 46 0 Left Elbow Strain - -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2023 LAN $
2022 LAN $3,000,000
2021 KCA $15,500,000
2020 KCA $15,250,000
2019 KCA $15,250,000
2018 KCA $14,000,000
2017 KCA $5,000,000
2016 KCA $4,225,000
2015 KCA $2,425,000
2014 KCA $
2013 KCA $505,125
2012 KCA $487,750
YearsDescriptionSalary
10 yrPrevious$72,642,875
2019Current$3,000,000
11 yrPvs + Cur$75,642,875
11 yrTotal$75,642,875

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
10 y 85 dACES1 year/$3M (2022), 2023 option

Details
  • 1 year/$3M (2022), plus 2023 club option. 22:$3M, 23:$7M club option. 2023 option increases $500,000 each for 5, 10, 15 games pitched in 2022 and $500,000 each for 5, 10, 15 innings pitched in 2022. If club exercises option, Duffy has 2023 performance bonuses of $750,000 each for 100, 110, 120, 130 IP and $1M each for 140, 150, 160 IP.
  • 5 years/$65M (2017-21). Signed extension with Kansas City 1/16/17 (avoided arbitration, $8M-$7.25M). 17:$5M, 18:$14M, 19:$15.25M, 20:$15.25M, 21:$15.5M. Acquired by LA Dodgers in trade from Kansas City 7/29/21 with $5.5M remaining on contract. As part of the deal, Royals to pay remaining 2021 salary.
  • 1 year/$4.225M (2016). Re-signed by Kansas City 1/15/16 (avoided arbitration). Award bonus: $50,000 for All-Star.
  • 1 year/$2.425M (2015). Re-signed by Kansas City 2/6/15 (avoided arbitration, $3M-$1.75M). Performance bonuses: $10,000 for 20 starts. $15,000 for 25 starts. Award bonus: $50,000 for All Star.
  • 1 year/$526,000 (2014). Re-signed by Kansas City 3/1/14.
  • 1 year/$505,125 (2013). Re-signed by Kansas City 2/20/13.
  • 1 year/$487,750 (2012). Re-signed by Kansas City 2/28/12.
  • 1 year (2011). Contract purchased by Kansas City 5/18/11.
  • Drafted by Kansas City 2007 (3-96) (Cabrillo HS, Calif.). Signed 6/28/07, $365,000 signing bonus.

2019 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA DRA VORP WARP
Weighted Mean?????0.0?00?.0000.000.00?0.00.0

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA DRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
20203191103030185190661572938.2971.384.825.069.23.27.61.40.8
20213281002626157159561322438.2921.374.825.069.13.27.61.40.7
20223381002727159159571372638.2901.364.845.099.03.27.81.50.7
2023347802121124132461072138.3031.444.995.249.63.37.81.50.3
202435670191911011440921838.2961.404.915.169.43.37.61.50.4
202536670181810811239911838.2951.404.935.189.33.27.61.50.4
2026374501414838630701438.2941.404.955.209.33.37.61.50.3
2027384501313798229661338.2951.415.005.259.33.37.51.50.2
2028394501212697326581238.2961.435.025.289.53.47.51.60.2

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 85)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 92 Yovani Gallardo 2016 5.64
2 92 Jason Hammel 2013 5.23
3 91 Gavin Floyd 2013 5.55
4 90 Travis Wood 2017 7.37
5 90 Doug Davis 2006 5.22
6 90 Josh Johnson 2014 0.00 DNP
7 89 Matt Cain 2015 5.79
8 89 Wade Miley 2017 5.95
9 89 Matt Garza 2014 4.24
10 89 Shaun Marcum 2012 4.14
11 89 Gaylord Perry 1969 3.18
12 89 Lance Lynn 2017 3.86
13 89 Chris Tillman 2018 10.80
14 88 Homer Bailey 2016 7.43
15 88 Mark Gubicza 1993 5.26
16 88 Andrew Cashner 2017 4.05
17 88 Carlos Zambrano 2011 4.94
18 88 Jeff Francis 2011 5.02
19 87 Bob Gibson 1966 2.89
20 87 Bob Rush 1956 3.46
21 87 Bill Singer 1974 3.89
22 87 Billy O'Dell 1963 3.64
23 87 Tim Belcher 1992 4.11
24 87 Kenta Maeda 2018 4.16
25 87 Nate Robertson 2008 6.62
26 87 Cliff Lee 2009 3.42
27 87 Gil Meche 2009 5.65
28 86 Brad Penny 2008 6.46
29 86 Freddy Garcia 2007 6.05
30 86 Dave Goltz 1979 4.42
31 86 Alex Cobb 2018 5.49
32 86 Don Drysdale 1967 3.22
33 86 George Uhle 1929 4.46
34 85 Kyle Lohse 2009 5.28
35 85 Kevin Millwood 2005 3.38
36 85 Mike Boddicker 1988 3.85
37 85 Derek Holland 2017 7.07
38 85 Gio Gonzalez 2016 4.97
39 85 Jon Lester 2014 3.11
40 85 John Lackey 2009 4.29
41 84 Doug Drabek 1993 4.09
42 84 Daisuke Matsuzaka 2011 5.79
43 84 Jordan Zimmermann 2016 5.38
44 84 Kelvim Escobar 2006 4.42
45 84 Don Sutton 1975 3.08 DNP
46 84 Mike Minor 2018 4.30
47 84 Ray Culp 1972 5.14
48 84 Matt Morris 2005 4.72
49 84 Ted Higuera 1988 2.61
50 84 Wilbur Cooper 1922 3.97
51 83 Bartolo Colon 2003 3.98
52 83 Kip Wells 2007 6.42
53 83 Dick Hughes 1968 3.39
54 83 Jerry Koosman 1973 3.18
55 83 Mike Cuellar 1967 3.62
56 83 Jack Morris 1985 3.57
57 83 Howie Pollet 1951 5.80
58 83 Jeff Weaver 2007 6.44
59 83 Vicente Padilla 2008 5.26
60 83 Kris Medlen 2016 9.25
61 83 Andy Messersmith 1976 3.60
62 83 Sidney Ponson 2007 7.41
63 83 Mike Moore 1990 5.10
64 83 Mat Latos 2018 0.00 DNP
65 83 Jason Jennings 2009 4.72
66 83 Bill Bevens 1947 4.47
67 82 Brian Lawrence 2006 0.00 DNP
68 82 Ryan Dempster 2007 4.86
69 82 John Maine 2011 0.00 DNP
70 82 Chase Anderson 2018 4.04
71 82 Frank Lary 1960 4.04
72 82 Mickey Lolich 1971 3.18
73 82 Andy Benes 1998 4.32
74 82 Pat Jarvis 1971 4.60
75 82 Josh Collmenter 2016 3.70
76 82 Chris Young 2009 5.57
77 82 Zack Greinke 2014 3.07
78 82 Johnny Antonelli 1960 4.17
79 82 Kevin Correia 2011 5.26
80 82 Jered Weaver 2013 3.38
81 82 David Phelps 2017 3.72
82 82 Bruce Kison 1980 5.52
83 81 Paul Maholm 2012 3.81
84 81 Rodrigo Lopez 2006 6.10
85 81 Hector Santiago 2018 4.76
86 81 Dizzy Trout 1945 3.50
87 81 Ubaldo Jimenez 2014 4.88
88 81 Aaron Harang 2008 5.08
89 81 Larry French 1938 3.66
90 81 Matt Clement 2005 4.81
91 81 Scott Feldman 2013 4.26
92 81 Todd Wellemeyer 2009 6.47
93 81 Zach McAllister 2018 6.40
94 81 Billy Pierce 1957 3.40
95 81 Carl Pavano 2006 0.00 DNP
96 81 Frank Viola 1990 2.99
97 81 Dick Donovan 1958 3.34
98 81 Alex Fernandez 2000 4.30
99 81 Dean Chance 1971 4.32
100 80 Wade Davis 2016 1.87

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2019  Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018 The video is a little slice of life. It’s Duffy, only half of his figure in the frame, casually tossing a full water bottle up above a table and watching it stick the landing right on its green cap. It’s on his Twitter, @Duffkc41, from April 9, 2017. Haters will say it’s fake, goes the caption.
March 23, directed at Eric Hosmer, shortly after Team USA won the World Baseball Classic: Been at this for awhile now! Dope way to start my 10th season calling you my brother! Lets take it back to the K.
March 29, with photo of a wristband honoring Yordano Ventura: This year is for you kid. #RIPACE.
Early morning hours of April 26, after the Royals’ sixth straight loss dropped them to 7-13: We will pull together and come out of this. Reason for concern, but i dare somebody to count us out.
June 12: Yoo @Mooose_8 and i were officially drafted a decade ago. We're old dawg.
June 18, in the midst of a Royals hot streak: This team, man.
June 24: Every year yall count us out. & late june, every year, we flip that switch. And the networks jump on board (eye-roll emoji) .. we never left, you guys. Three minutes later: ...none of us have vacay plans in october. Dont sleep on the boys.

Duffy went on the disabled list on August 26, as the season fell apart. While in Kansas City to get an MRI, he was arrested for DUI when he fell asleep at the wheel of his car in a Burger King drive-thru. In early November, after several months of mostly retweeting charities, Duffy posted a picture of his dog on an empty beach: Rough times make you more appreciative of the good times.

Whether Duffy returns with his defiant optimism intact, it’s hard to say, but two seasons and 326 innings of excellent starting pitching say he is likely to remain a useful rotation piece. A decade of trials and tribulations as a professional baseball player rarely feels this human. So if nothing else, count on Duffy to be a sympathetic, sometimes flawed and exceedingly real character in a pastime that can seem both too big and too small to be simply an entertainment product.
2017 "It's a bear suit, Joel." Duffy famously informed Fox Sports Kansas City reporter Joel Goldberg of his celebratory attire following the Royals' championship. Duffy brings a laid-back SoCal vibe to the clubhouse. On the mound, it's been a bit of a different tale as he's struggled to find his role, bouncing between the rotation and the relief corps. Opening last year in his preferred bullpen role, he was pushed to the rotation when injuries created an opening. There, he flourished, posting the highest WARP of his career while setting positive milestones in walk and strikeout rates. In the past when Duffy got ahead of hitters, he would pump the breaks and nibble, letting them off the hook while leading to elevated pitch counts. Not anymore. He got more swings and, trusting his stuff, got more misses as well. His resurgence culminated with a tour de force in Tampa in which he struck out a career-high 16 and generated an astounding 35 swings and misses. As they say in Cali, his performance was totally gnar, braj.
2016 You should have known better than to tell your brother-in-law you weren't surprised by Duffy's struggles last year because he had outpitched his peripherals in 2014. Of course he was going to shoot you that propeller-head look and spray you with the hose, something you could have avoided by instead saying he gives up a lot of flyballs that were due to start turning into more home runs, or that he walks too many and strikes out too few to be an ace. So at this year's family picnic remember to tell him that Duffy will be just fine at the end of the rotation, and he'll be more valuable there than in long relief. Just don't say “third pitch” or “leverage” or “BABIP” or “home runs per flyball,” or you'll get the hose again.
2015 Oh yeah! After watching him lose almost two seasons to elbow woes, Royals Nation was totally ready to Get Duffed last summer, and the young lefty delivered. Duffy entered the rotation in May and pitched well, posting a triumphant sub-three ERA. His peripherals paint a different picture, however, as his pedestrian walk and strikeout rates could drive a stat-head to drink. An extreme fly-ball pitcher who benefits greatly from Kansas City's collection of outfield speedsters, Duffy works his rising low-90s fastball up in the zone and generates plenty of pop-ups and managed to keep most batters in the yard last year. That won't last: Duffy is as sure a bet as there is in baseball for gopher-ball regression this season. He also missed time last September with an inflamed rotator cuff and worked out of the 'pen in the playoffs due to a stress reaction in his ribcage. If he can stay healthy, Duffy can be a solid fourth starter, but he isn't an ace-in-waiting.
2014 Almost 14 months after undergoing Tommy John surgery, Duffy made his return to the big-league mound. Like many who take their first steps following elbow ligament replacement, his velocity was there but his command was notalthough his history of inflated walk rates makes it difficult to tell if thats a hangover from his injury or just Duffy being Duffy. He still has a frustrating tendency to jump ahead of hitters and then get too fine and lose the battle. With a mid-90s fastball and a curve with bite, the stuff can be electric, but his inability to locate his off-speed pitches and put hitters away can be frustrating. Theres still upside here.
2013 Many observers thought Duffy was injured when he struggled with command in a short outing the start after throwing 113 pitches at the end of April. Adding fuel to the fire were Moore's comments that the club knew its left-hander would eventually need Tommy John surgery. But Duffy had been throwing with a partial tear in his UCL for several years and the team did follow accepted medical protocol when diagnosing the injury. Whatever the cause, the result is that he is another of the parade of Royals pitchers who landed in the operating room for the procedure. His rehab program has begun and he appears on target to return late in the 2013 season. The best-case scenario would have him contributing in 2014.
2012 The first of what the Royals hope will be a wave of starting pitching prospects, Duffy arrived in Kansas City with much fanfare in mid-May when the club ran thin on viable starters. He certainly earned the call-up after punching out 48 hitters in 42 innings in Omaha. Once in the majors, Duffy at times exhibited brilliance, but far too often he nibbled and lost the ability to put hitters away once he jumped ahead in the count. He also developed an alarming habit of putting the ball right down the middle of the plate when he fell behind. Still, Duffy has good feel for his fastball that sits in the low- to mid-90s and favors a slow, sweeping curve as his top secondary pitch. He was shut down in September after approaching 150 innings between the majors and minors. Think of 2011 as his first step in the major league learning process. With his stuff, he is still more than capable of developing into a quality, front-line starter.
2011 Beginning in spring training, when he retired to "reassess his priorities," Duffy had a strange year. When he returned to the game in June after determining that baseball was still ranked somewhere on his to-do list, he showed off the best stuff of his young career, pitching well as high as Double-A. With a fastball that gets into the mid-90s to go with a good changeup, and a good-enough breaking ball, Duffy has the ability to be a big-league starter. Now he has to prove that his stuff can hold up over the course of a full workload; in his three full years as a pro, he's logged just over 270 innings. We have plenty to learn about both his stuff and his commitment, but the pieces of an excellent player are there.
2010 Along with Montgomery and Melville, this 2007 third-rounder gives the Royals three pitchers who have both the projection and performance to warrant genuine excitement. Duffy is a step below Montgomery and Melville on a stuff level, with his best pitch a curve to go with an average-to-tick-above heater; while the M&M boys have a chance to be second or third starters, Duffy projects as more of an eventual fourth man. Of course, when we say "number four" we're talking about major-league teamson the Royals, anyone else's number four is actually a number two, anyone else's number two is actually a number one, and Zack Greinke exists in a class by himself.
2009 The Royals might have found something when they selected this high school lefty in the third round two years ago. Duffy possesses a remarkably advanced feel for mixing pitches and setting batters up, and was pretty much untouchable in his first full pro season, with Midwest League batters managing just a .193 average against his solid fastball, big-breaking slow curve, and well-controlled change. He's a bit like a left-handed version of Cortes, featuring a similar repertoire and batted-ball split (a 0.55 G/F ratio last year). Southpaws who can fan 11 batters per nine innings at any level are rare gems, and Duffy will get the chance to add more luster at High-A Wilmington.
2008 Daniel Duffy was drafted in the third round last year out of an obscure California high school, then opened eyes with 63 strikeouts in 37 innings in Rookie ball. He's a lefty who throws in the low 90s with a very good curve. If he stays healthy, he'll get a much longer comment next year.

BP Articles

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BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2018-06-20 19:00:00 (link to chat)Is Danny Duffy a lost cause as a starter? Maybe they should just throw him in at closer so they can recoup some value.
(Chansen8895 from San Jose)
Probably. I'd like to see a different team take a crack at fixing Duffy but you're right that his trade value is in the toilet so he's not going anywhere. (Mike Gianella)
2018-04-13 12:00:00 (link to chat)I'm looking to pick up a set-up guy and need to drop a starting pitcher. I've narrowed it to Danny Duffy and Ian Kennedy, both who were picked up off the wire. Suggestions if you please and thank you. Also, Tanner Roark and Aaron Sanchez could be dropped as well.
(Joe Sixpack from Hastings)
I guess you have to wait and see on Kennedy now? He'd normally be my pick, and he still might be actually. I am a low dude on Tanner Roark, so he'd be my other option. Too much upside in Duffy and Sanchez despite rough starts. (Jeffrey Paternostro)
2018-02-13 20:00:00 (link to chat)Who would win in a drinking competition? Danny Duffy or Tony LaRussa?
(Joel from Lawrence)
it depends on what they're drinking (Mike Gianella)
2017-05-15 17:00:00 (link to chat)Name a reliever you believe could deliver Danny Duffy results if he is put in the rotation?
(Chansen8895 from San Jose )
Chris Devenski (Mike Gianella)
2017-03-29 14:00:00 (link to chat)Does Steven Matz have Ace upside? Obviously an injury risk but how good is his stuff?
(Jackson from NY)
I go back and forth on Matz. His numbers have sort of that soft-ace upside of a Danny Duffy or Aaron Sanchez, which is deeply valuable, but I also don't really think he has another gear at this point. In this way he's kind of similar to his teammate in Jacob deGrom, who is incredibly good at pitching, but not a Syndergaard, Kershaw, Scherzer type True Ace.

I guess the bottom line is, he's probably good enough to head up a staff, but if you're talking best 10 pitchers in baseball, I'm skeptical. (Trevor Strunk)
2016-07-22 13:00:00 (link to chat)I traded Bauer for Danny Duffy, full keeper league. Should I have a blindfold, a cigarette, and await the sound of gunfire?
(darthack2661 from New Jersey)
I don't answer many questions about Fantasy, if only because I'm not the guy you want to take advice from in that arena. Never played Fantasy baseball.

That said, I think just in real life terms, you could make the argument that's somewhat of a lateral move. So not that bad. I don't think you're going to get the cig blown out of your mouth by gruesome firing squad, for instance.

I'd probably say that taking the Duffy side is the 'riskier' half of that deal, but the left-handedness and my thoughts in years past about this guy just shortening up and fully focusing on the bullpen (think Mike Montgomery's trajectory...and Duffy has been a better starter than Montgomery was) give it some upside. (Adam McInturff)
2016-06-13 23:00:00 (link to chat)Danny Duffy looks great now that he's pitching exclusively from the stretch. Most of that success has come vs the White Sox though. How you feel about him moving forward? Can he be a 2/3 or is it too soon to think that? Thanks for the chat.
(Choppy from around)
Seems to be pitch mix-related just as much, as he's moved drastically away from the 4-seam in favor of more sinkers, and both secondaries are really playing up well off of it. To early to tell if that holds, and 2/3 seems aggressive even in a best-case scenario, though the lack of walks against offenses that take free passes at decent clips is a good sign. (Wilson Karaman)
2015-09-17 14:00:00 (link to chat)I had great such great judgement that I went into this year with a fantasy SP staff including Latos, Tillman, and Danny Duffy ... Can any of these guys be ... Average starters next year?
(Michael from chicago)
Any one of the three could be average to above, but this season has caused a lot of turmoil with their values. Latos has the best pedigree, Duffy has youth on his side, and Tillman has always been vulnerable to contact, this year it just all went south. So there's reason for optimism with each, but neither should be counted on by an MLB club as more than a number-four starter (a three if desperate) next year. (Doug Thorburn)
2015-07-23 17:00:00 (link to chat)How likely that Tillman and Danny Duffy turn it around (pitch like, league average)? Debating whether to drop them in a deep dynasty league ...
(Pete from NY)
Tillman has already shown some signs of turning it around and could definitely pitch to a league averae level. He is throwing with a little more bite and better location in his last few outings. Duffy could be good, but given the time he has missed so far and some of the other issues he has I'm not as confident. In a deep dynasty, you probably want to keep both, but if you're also competing this year, your focus should be on Tillman for 2015. (Mike Gianella)
2015-08-21 13:00:00 (link to chat)Making a playoff push in a H2H dynasty where all I need are SP bodies to go for Wins, K's, and QS's ... Would I be crazy to drop Danny Duffy for John Lamb?
(Mike from TX)
Not at all. You ostensibly take a hit in Win potential, but that's never something to plan transactions around. Never been a big fan of Duffy's, as he's a big WHIP liability and now he's not striking guys out either. Wrote up Lamb when he was called up, interesting post-hype guy: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=27219 (Wilson Karaman)
2015-02-04 19:00:00 (link to chat)Who do you like best for the long haul? Michael Pineda, Danny Duffy or Shelby Miller.
(Gmurphsiu02 from St Paul)
I can't, in good conscience, put Pineda over either of these guys. He keeps teasing and showing flashes, but then pulls the rug out from under. It's frustrating.

I'll very hesitantly take Miller>Duffy. I think the Braves can refine his mechs a bit, and get his CB back to a strike out pitch. Duffy has yet to do it for a full season yet, but I do think he has slightly higher upside, lower floor. (Jordan Gorosh)
2015-02-16 11:00:00 (link to chat)Do you see Danny Duffy taking another step forward for the Royals this year? More specifically, will his strikeout rate bounce back to his career averages without much regression to the peripheral stats he put up last season?
(Robert Kincaid from Madison County)
I think Duffy can improve his strikeout rate, but I'm reluctant to project a return to his older levels.

When you look at Duffy's 2014, there a few observable give-and-take relationships. For instance: he allowed more contact and got earlier outs, leading to a lower P/PA, K/9, and BB/9. At the same time, that pound-the-zone mentality led to fewer two-strike counts, but more 0-2 counts. So his total strikeout chances decreased, but the quality of those opportunities increased. I'd have to do some research on what matters more-my guess is it might vary depending on the pitcher-but it's an interesting question to ponder. (R.J. Anderson)
2014-10-23 14:00:00 (link to chat)How worried should I be about Yordano Ventura's workload? I am all for chasing the ring, but the lack of Danny Duffy sightings makes me concerned about their rotation next year.
(Jeff from Lawrence)
There is some concern, especially for a pitcher who relies so much on power at the expense of stability in his delivery. That said, it is critical to look at each pitcher on a case-by-case basis, and the Royals have the most knowledge of these pitchers' risk profiles. I think that a lot of pitchers break down for a lot of reasons, and though workload is certainly a factor to consider, I believe that the ends justify the means in this scenario. (Doug Thorburn)
2014-10-17 12:00:00 (link to chat)Is Ned Yost just inconsistent or is he getting better?
(William from Spokane)
He's getting better. A crucial thing happened in September. The Aaron Crow Game (the cousin of The Jonny Gomes Game) showed the limits of Yost's rigid bullpen management. After that game, pitching coach Dave Eiland implored him to be more aggressive in using Kelvin Herrera and Wade Davis.

One point to Yost's credit: He listened. The next night, Herrera pitched in the sixth. Davis pitched in the seventh.

Another point to Yost's credit: He did not waver. Because the Royals lost that next night, and Yost could have easily backslid into the routine. He didn't.

During the ALCS, multiple Orioles officials lamented to me their frustration that Yost had optimized his bullpen deployment. It was almost unfair, they said. And this was when the team wasn't even using Danny Duffy, who was their best pitcher for much of the summer.

So, in short, Yost has gotten better. He still does goofy things, like letting his No. 3 hitter bunt in the first inning. But they've found a horseshoe. At this point, it's Ned's world, and we're all just living in it. Hope you are all enjoying the #Yostseason. (Andy McCullough)
2014-10-17 12:00:00 (link to chat)In your approximation how many Lions are on the Royals roster? Any, besides Shields of course, with future astronaut lion potential?
(Chill Cosby from Space)
Danny Duffy could become an Astronaut Grizzly.

https://twitter.com/McCulloughStar/status/522540919019798528/photo/1

http://idealog.co.nz/media/images/blog/2013/07/sloth_t.jpg (Andy McCullough)
2014-10-17 12:00:00 (link to chat)If you had the choice, what would the WS starting rotation for the Royals look like?
(clscholes from Independence)
Danny Duffy would be pitching.

But I would say the Royals approach has been effective so far. (Andy McCullough)
2014-10-17 12:00:00 (link to chat)What do you think the rotation will be opening day next year for the Royals?
(Alex from Madison, WI)
Jason Vargas, Danny Duffy, Yordano Ventura, Jeremy Guthrie and Johnny Free Agent. (Andy McCullough)
2014-08-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)Are you a Danny Duffy believer?
(Royal diehard from KC)
Yes. Bret Sayre and I own him in mixed LABR and I like Duffy a lot. Maybe he's not a future ace, but I could see a solid #2. (Mike Gianella)
2014-09-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)Fantasy Question: Regardless of cost, who would you rather have for the next 3 years: Danny Duffy, Jake Arrieta, or Rusney Castillo? What kind of player will Castillo be?
(Quiet Time from D.C.)
Castillo is a total wild card. The scouting reports I've read pegged him somewhere between Rajai Davis and Shane Victorino, but then it was said that he bulked up and showed unexpected power during his workouts last month. Even if he "ony" ends up as the next Shane Victorino, I'd take that over either SP. I'd take most solid everyday players over most unproven SP's. (Cory Schwartz)
2014-09-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)Who will have the better career Danny Duffy or Brandon Finnegan?
(Kevin G from Jacksonville)
As of today you'd have to go with Duffy because he's got a regular rotation spot and is pitching very well. Remember that he too was a big-time prospect before injuries slowed him, but he's still very young and has upside to grow. Finnegan has much to prove before he becomes the next... Danny Duffy? :-) (Cory Schwartz)
2014-08-08 13:00:00 (link to chat)I have Segura, Wilin Rosario and Shelby Miller in a keeper league where they'll be cheap next year. Should I have any confidence that one or more of them will rebound? And would you hold on to any of them over Danny Duffy or Drew Pomeranz for the same price?
(Sjcolmus from Baltimore)
I like Duffy going forward. Would drop Rosario for him, and while I'm not optimistic on Segura, I'm hopeful he can rebound a bit. Pomeranz isn't very good. (Craig Goldstein)
2014-07-25 14:00:00 (link to chat)Is Danny Duffy for real? Can he keep this up the rest of the year and beyond?
(Levine Perry from CT)
Lefty's that throw that hard have a huge advantage, and the curve has been unhittable this year. We'll see if he can continue to bury the curve and keep batters on their toes with the heat, as they could make adjustments now that the book is out on him. He has a solid delivery that lacks southpaw-related quirks, so that's another point in his favor. I don't see a 2.50 ERA ROS, but I could see him settle into the 3.25-3.50 range and be very effective down the stretch. (Doug Thorburn)
2014-07-25 14:00:00 (link to chat)Love all the coverage of Arrieta taking his next step forward. In similar fashion, is Danny Duffy's great start to the year something he can keep up the rest of the year and beyond?
(Nils from CT)
Please see previous response on Duffy. (Doug Thorburn)
2014-07-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)Are you sold on the development of Danny Duffy??
(Kevin from KC)
I think we've seen some, but not commensurate with his ERA. I actually think there's more growth to come, though probably more in 2015. I'd bet on a mid to high-3.00s ERA the rest of the way. (Paul Sporer)
2014-04-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)You think Danny Duffy will take over Bruce Chen's spot in the rotation soon? If so is he an immediate add?
(Mike from Boston)
I think he can, yes. And then he'd be an add in a lot of formats, but not necessarily a must-add in 10 or 12-team mixers (Paul Sporer)
2014-01-21 18:00:00 (link to chat)Your overall thoughts on Danny Duffy going into 2014?
(nevadamartin from Las Vegas, NV)
Duffy followed the typical injury recovery from TJ surgery at the tail end of 2013. His velocity was there but his command was not. My concern is that Duffy's command has never really been great at the Major League level so there are no guarantees he is going to find it this year either. I think Duffy is a solid back end guy in fantasy, but I wouldn't chase him and the only format where I'd really pursue him is in dynasty. There is a lot of reward but also a lot of risk here. (Mike Gianella)
2013-11-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)Danny Duffy, ready to break out and live up to K rate and stuff, or too inconsistent to be a rotation anchor?
(Samsonite DuSable from Springfield)
those are two separate things--I think he's close to having a good season as a starter (health allowing) but I don't see him as a rotation anchor. He's going to find age taking a bit off his stuff quite soon so it's get going or get gone time for Duffy to shine. (Harry Pavlidis)
2013-10-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)Danny Duffy continued to struggle with some injury issues after his return. Do you see any red flags in his mechanics? Is he a potential #2 guy?
(Kevin from Tennessee)
He's got that potential. But the only red flag I need to see is his injury history. (Harry Pavlidis)
2013-09-06 14:00:00 (link to chat)Do you see Danny Duffy developing into a relaible mid of the rotation arm?
(Shawn from CT)
He has the raw velocity and the pitch mix for the rotation, but his secondary stuff has not been crisp enough to hold down a mid-rotation spot yet. His command has been very spotty, and he has some mechanical obstacle to overcome before he can iron out those issues - he has an overly-closed stride that does not appear to work well with his signature, and he struggles with balance from foot strike through release point. So it all depends on his development path, but if he can't make the necessary adjustments then he may be destined for a role in the bullpen. (Doug Thorburn)
2013-07-29 11:00:00 (link to chat)What type of ceiling do you see for Danny Duffy? Seems to have huge K potential
(Shawn from My Cubicle)
I saw Duffy a lot as a prospect, the stuff is real and he has the chance to be a very solid mid rotation starter. (Zach Mortimer)
2013-06-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)Obviously not this year, but does Danny Duffy have the ceiling of a #2? Pre-TJ I think he had one of the fastest avg fastballs in MLB.
(Shawnykid23 from CT)
Yes, though the ceiling is faint. I'd bet more on a #3 (Paul Sporer)
2013-05-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thoughts on Daniel Hudson, Danny Duffy, and Felipe Paulino? Will any have value this year? Who's best long-term?
(Shawnykid23 from CT)
No idea this year, wouldn't really waste much time. Hudson long-term. (Paul Sporer)
2013-03-01 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thanks for the chat Doug! I'm a big fan and look forward to the SP guide with your input. I would like to know if you look for specific mechanic flaws for pitchers post TJ or other surgery. i.e. John Lamb or Danny Duffy.
(jimcal from Seattle)
When looking at post-surgery pitchers, what I pay attention to differs based on the conditions of their injury. If the guy had solid mechanics before getting hurt - but fell due to workloads, structural integrity, or other conditions - then I just look to see how far away he is from regaining his previous delivery. But if there was an underlying mechanical flaw, then I look to see if any adjustments have been made to correct the problem.

Stephen Strasburg is a good example. I loved his mechanics before the injury, though he did have the trifecta of inverted-W + heavy scapular load + delayed trunk rotation that leads to elbow drag (particularly when fatigued). I am a big fan of his delivery now, but in my opinion he is still just 90-95% of the way back to his pre-injury levels. But the Nats were smart to shut him down last season, given the risk factors inherent in his motion plus the additional risk when he gets fatigued.

On the jukebox: Audioslave, "Like a Stone" (Doug Thorburn)
2013-02-26 14:00:00 (link to chat)M.Pineda - worth a stash in fantasy? Any hope he comes on to pitch mid-year 2013?
(Al from Boston)
In a redraft league, I'd consider Pineda as a late-round flier that you could stash on your DL and hope for the best. We recently heard that he's ahead of schedule and actually threw a 25-pitch (all-fastball) session the other day, so there is upside here. On the other hand, recovery from a labrum tear is difficult to project, so if you're inclined to gamble on a pitcher coming back from injury, someone like Danny Duffy or Cory Luebke (both Tommy John surgery victims) might be a better bet. (Daniel Rathman)
2012-03-15 12:00:00 (link to chat)What's your take on the 2012 Royals?
(Ryan Glass from The District)
It comes down to their pitching. I can see their young position players taking steps forward, but that rotation needs to carry its weight, too. If Luke Hochevar and Danny Duffy can improve and Felipe Paulino continues to pitch like he did with KC last season then that team looks a lot better than it does now. (R.J. Anderson)
2012-01-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)Any "sophomores" you like to break out this season
(moehk21 from NYC)
I like Ben Revere, Eric Thames, Lucas Duda, Cory Luebke, Danny Duffy, Henderson Alvarez all to various degrees. (Derek Carty)
2011-05-23 13:00:00 (link to chat)Is Danny Duffy here to stay? (assuming no more retirements)
(seth from OP,KS)
I think he is. He's got the stuff to play in the majors. I'm sure he'll have rookie struggles, but I see no reason why the Royals would want to keep rolling out the current cast of clowns every five days. There has to be a continuing spot for Duffy in there, I would think. (Mike Fast)


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