Baseball Prospectus

MLB Statistics

Statistics for All Levels

Plate Discipline

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 85)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	Run Average	Trend
1	92	Yovani Gallardo	2016	5.64
2	92	Jason Hammel	2013	5.23
3	91	Gavin Floyd	2013	5.55
4	90	Travis Wood	2017	7.37
5	90	Doug Davis	2006	5.22
6	90	Josh Johnson	2014	0.00	DNP
7	89	Matt Cain	2015	5.79
8	89	Wade Miley	2017	5.95
9	89	Matt Garza	2014	4.24
10	89	Shaun Marcum	2012	4.14
11	89	Gaylord Perry	1969	3.18
12	89	Lance Lynn	2017	3.86
13	89	Chris Tillman	2018	10.80
14	88	Homer Bailey	2016	7.43
15	88	Mark Gubicza	1993	5.26
16	88	Andrew Cashner	2017	4.05
17	88	Carlos Zambrano	2011	4.94
18	88	Jeff Francis	2011	5.02
19	87	Bob Gibson	1966	2.89
20	87	Bob Rush	1956	3.46
21	87	Bill Singer	1974	3.89
22	87	Billy O'Dell	1963	3.64
23	87	Tim Belcher	1992	4.11
24	87	Kenta Maeda	2018	4.16
25	87	Nate Robertson	2008	6.62
26	87	Cliff Lee	2009	3.42
27	87	Gil Meche	2009	5.65
28	86	Brad Penny	2008	6.46
29	86	Freddy Garcia	2007	6.05
30	86	Dave Goltz	1979	4.42
31	86	Alex Cobb	2018	5.49
32	86	Don Drysdale	1967	3.22
33	86	George Uhle	1929	4.46
34	85	Kyle Lohse	2009	5.28
35	85	Kevin Millwood	2005	3.38
36	85	Mike Boddicker	1988	3.85
37	85	Derek Holland	2017	7.07
38	85	Gio Gonzalez	2016	4.97
39	85	Jon Lester	2014	3.11
40	85	John Lackey	2009	4.29
41	84	Doug Drabek	1993	4.09
42	84	Daisuke Matsuzaka	2011	5.79
43	84	Jordan Zimmermann	2016	5.38
44	84	Kelvim Escobar	2006	4.42
45	84	Don Sutton	1975	3.08	DNP
46	84	Mike Minor	2018	4.30
47	84	Ray Culp	1972	5.14
48	84	Matt Morris	2005	4.72
49	84	Ted Higuera	1988	2.61
50	84	Wilbur Cooper	1922	3.97
51	83	Bartolo Colon	2003	3.98
52	83	Kip Wells	2007	6.42
53	83	Dick Hughes	1968	3.39
54	83	Jerry Koosman	1973	3.18
55	83	Mike Cuellar	1967	3.62
56	83	Jack Morris	1985	3.57
57	83	Howie Pollet	1951	5.80
58	83	Jeff Weaver	2007	6.44
59	83	Vicente Padilla	2008	5.26
60	83	Kris Medlen	2016	9.25
61	83	Andy Messersmith	1976	3.60
62	83	Sidney Ponson	2007	7.41
63	83	Mike Moore	1990	5.10
64	83	Mat Latos	2018	0.00	DNP
65	83	Jason Jennings	2009	4.72
66	83	Bill Bevens	1947	4.47
67	82	Brian Lawrence	2006	0.00	DNP
68	82	Ryan Dempster	2007	4.86
69	82	John Maine	2011	0.00	DNP
70	82	Chase Anderson	2018	4.04
71	82	Frank Lary	1960	4.04
72	82	Mickey Lolich	1971	3.18
73	82	Andy Benes	1998	4.32
74	82	Pat Jarvis	1971	4.60
75	82	Josh Collmenter	2016	3.70
76	82	Chris Young	2009	5.57
77	82	Zack Greinke	2014	3.07
78	82	Johnny Antonelli	1960	4.17
79	82	Kevin Correia	2011	5.26
80	82	Jered Weaver	2013	3.38
81	82	David Phelps	2017	3.72
82	82	Bruce Kison	1980	5.52
83	81	Paul Maholm	2012	3.81
84	81	Rodrigo Lopez	2006	6.10
85	81	Hector Santiago	2018	4.76
86	81	Dizzy Trout	1945	3.50
87	81	Ubaldo Jimenez	2014	4.88
88	81	Aaron Harang	2008	5.08
89	81	Larry French	1938	3.66
90	81	Matt Clement	2005	4.81
91	81	Scott Feldman	2013	4.26
92	81	Todd Wellemeyer	2009	6.47
93	81	Zach McAllister	2018	6.40
94	81	Billy Pierce	1957	3.40
95	81	Carl Pavano	2006	0.00	DNP
96	81	Frank Viola	1990	2.99
97	81	Dick Donovan	1958	3.34
98	81	Alex Fernandez	2000	4.30
99	81	Dean Chance	1971	4.32
100	80	Wade Davis	2016	1.87

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2019		Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018		The video is a little slice of life. It’s Duffy, only half of his figure in the frame, casually tossing a full water bottle up above a table and watching it stick the landing right on its green cap. It’s on his Twitter, @Duffkc41, from April 9, 2017. Haters will say it’s fake, goes the caption. March 23, directed at Eric Hosmer, shortly after Team USA won the World Baseball Classic: Been at this for awhile now! Dope way to start my 10th season calling you my brother! Lets take it back to the K. March 29, with photo of a wristband honoring Yordano Ventura: This year is for you kid. #RIPACE. Early morning hours of April 26, after the Royals’ sixth straight loss dropped them to 7-13: We will pull together and come out of this. Reason for concern, but i dare somebody to count us out. June 12: Yoo @Mooose_8 and i were officially drafted a decade ago. We're old dawg. June 18, in the midst of a Royals hot streak: This team, man. June 24: Every year yall count us out. & late june, every year, we flip that switch. And the networks jump on board (eye-roll emoji) .. we never left, you guys. Three minutes later: ...none of us have vacay plans in october. Dont sleep on the boys. Duffy went on the disabled list on August 26, as the season fell apart. While in Kansas City to get an MRI, he was arrested for DUI when he fell asleep at the wheel of his car in a Burger King drive-thru. In early November, after several months of mostly retweeting charities, Duffy posted a picture of his dog on an empty beach: Rough times make you more appreciative of the good times. Whether Duffy returns with his defiant optimism intact, it’s hard to say, but two seasons and 326 innings of excellent starting pitching say he is likely to remain a useful rotation piece. A decade of trials and tribulations as a professional baseball player rarely feels this human. So if nothing else, count on Duffy to be a sympathetic, sometimes flawed and exceedingly real character in a pastime that can seem both too big and too small to be simply an entertainment product.
2017		"It's a bear suit, Joel." Duffy famously informed Fox Sports Kansas City reporter Joel Goldberg of his celebratory attire following the Royals' championship. Duffy brings a laid-back SoCal vibe to the clubhouse. On the mound, it's been a bit of a different tale as he's struggled to find his role, bouncing between the rotation and the relief corps. Opening last year in his preferred bullpen role, he was pushed to the rotation when injuries created an opening. There, he flourished, posting the highest WARP of his career while setting positive milestones in walk and strikeout rates. In the past when Duffy got ahead of hitters, he would pump the breaks and nibble, letting them off the hook while leading to elevated pitch counts. Not anymore. He got more swings and, trusting his stuff, got more misses as well. His resurgence culminated with a tour de force in Tampa in which he struck out a career-high 16 and generated an astounding 35 swings and misses. As they say in Cali, his performance was totally gnar, braj.
2016		You should have known better than to tell your brother-in-law you weren't surprised by Duffy's struggles last year because he had outpitched his peripherals in 2014. Of course he was going to shoot you that propeller-head look and spray you with the hose, something you could have avoided by instead saying he gives up a lot of flyballs that were due to start turning into more home runs, or that he walks too many and strikes out too few to be an ace. So at this year's family picnic remember to tell him that Duffy will be just fine at the end of the rotation, and he'll be more valuable there than in long relief. Just don't say “third pitch” or “leverage” or “BABIP” or “home runs per flyball,” or you'll get the hose again.
2015		Oh yeah! After watching him lose almost two seasons to elbow woes, Royals Nation was totally ready to Get Duffed last summer, and the young lefty delivered. Duffy entered the rotation in May and pitched well, posting a triumphant sub-three ERA. His peripherals paint a different picture, however, as his pedestrian walk and strikeout rates could drive a stat-head to drink. An extreme fly-ball pitcher who benefits greatly from Kansas City's collection of outfield speedsters, Duffy works his rising low-90s fastball up in the zone and generates plenty of pop-ups and managed to keep most batters in the yard last year. That won't last: Duffy is as sure a bet as there is in baseball for gopher-ball regression this season. He also missed time last September with an inflamed rotator cuff and worked out of the 'pen in the playoffs due to a stress reaction in his ribcage. If he can stay healthy, Duffy can be a solid fourth starter, but he isn't an ace-in-waiting.
2014		Almost 14 months after undergoing Tommy John surgery, Duffy made his return to the big-league mound. Like many who take their first steps following elbow ligament replacement, his velocity was there but his command was not�although his history of inflated walk rates makes it difficult to tell if that�s a hangover from his injury or just Duffy being Duffy. He still has a frustrating tendency to jump ahead of hitters and then get too fine and lose the battle. With a mid-90s fastball and a curve with bite, the stuff can be electric, but his inability to locate his off-speed pitches and put hitters away can be frustrating. There�s still upside here.
2013		Many observers thought Duffy was injured when he struggled with command in a short outing the start after throwing 113 pitches at the end of April. Adding fuel to the fire were Moore's comments that the club knew its left-hander would eventually need Tommy John surgery. But Duffy had been throwing with a partial tear in his UCL for several years and the team did follow accepted medical protocol when diagnosing the injury. Whatever the cause, the result is that he is another of the parade of Royals pitchers who landed in the operating room for the procedure. His rehab program has begun and he appears on target to return late in the 2013 season. The best-case scenario would have him contributing in 2014.
2012		The first of what the Royals hope will be a wave of starting pitching prospects, Duffy arrived in Kansas City with much fanfare in mid-May when the club ran thin on viable starters. He certainly earned the call-up after punching out 48 hitters in 42 innings in Omaha. Once in the majors, Duffy at times exhibited brilliance, but far too often he nibbled and lost the ability to put hitters away once he jumped ahead in the count. He also developed an alarming habit of putting the ball right down the middle of the plate when he fell behind. Still, Duffy has good feel for his fastball that sits in the low- to mid-90s and favors a slow, sweeping curve as his top secondary pitch. He was shut down in September after approaching 150 innings between the majors and minors. Think of 2011 as his first step in the major league learning process. With his stuff, he is still more than capable of developing into a quality, front-line starter.
2011		Beginning in spring training, when he retired to "reassess his priorities," Duffy had a strange year. When he returned to the game in June after determining that baseball was still ranked somewhere on his to-do list, he showed off the best stuff of his young career, pitching well as high as Double-A. With a fastball that gets into the mid-90s to go with a good changeup, and a good-enough breaking ball, Duffy has the ability to be a big-league starter. Now he has to prove that his stuff can hold up over the course of a full workload; in his three full years as a pro, he's logged just over 270 innings. We have plenty to learn about both his stuff and his commitment, but the pieces of an excellent player are there.
2010		Along with Montgomery and Melville, this 2007 third-rounder gives the Royals three pitchers who have both the projection and performance to warrant genuine excitement. Duffy is a step below Montgomery and Melville on a stuff level, with his best pitch a curve to go with an average-to-tick-above heater; while the M&M boys have a chance to be second or third starters, Duffy projects as more of an eventual fourth man. Of course, when we say "number four" we're talking about major-league teams�on the Royals, anyone else's number four is actually a number two, anyone else's number two is actually a number one, and Zack Greinke exists in a class by himself.
2009		The Royals might have found something when they selected this high school lefty in the third round two years ago. Duffy possesses a remarkably advanced feel for mixing pitches and setting batters up, and was pretty much untouchable in his first full pro season, with Midwest League batters managing just a .193 average against his solid fastball, big-breaking slow curve, and well-controlled change. He's a bit like a left-handed version of Cortes, featuring a similar repertoire and batted-ball split (a 0.55 G/F ratio last year). Southpaws who can fan 11 batters per nine innings at any level are rare gems, and Duffy will get the chance to add more luster at High-A Wilmington.
2008		Daniel Duffy was drafted in the third round last year out of an obscure California high school, then opened eyes with 63 strikeouts in 37 innings in Rookie ball. He's a lefty who throws in the low 90s with a very good curve. If he stays healthy, he'll get a much longer comment next year.

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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC

Danny Duffy has thrown 20,752 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2011 and 2024, all of them occuring in Spring Training. In 2024, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (91mph), also mixing in a Change (84mph), Curve (74mph) and Slider (80mph). He also rarely throws a Sinker (91mph).