Baseball Prospectus

MLB Statistics

Statistics for All Levels

Plate Discipline

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 69)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	Run Average	Trend
1	85	Bryan Corey	2009	0.00	DNP
2	81	Randy Choate	2011	2.55
3	81	Scott Atchison	2011	3.26
4	79	Kameron Loe	2017	0.00	DNP
5	78	D.J. Carrasco	2012	7.36
6	78	Claudio Vargas	2013	0.00	DNP
7	77	Vladimir Nunez	2010	0.00	DNP
8	77	Jared Fernandez	2007	0.00	DNP
9	76	Josh Kinney	2014	0.00	DNP
10	76	Clay Rapada	2016	0.00	DNP
11	75	Chris Sampson	2013	0.00	DNP
12	74	Jean Machi	2017	2.35
13	74	R.A. Dickey	2010	3.20
14	74	Nick Masset	2017	0.00	DNP
15	73	Steve Karsay	2007	0.00	DNP
16	73	John Bale	2009	6.35
17	73	Jason Childers	2010	0.00	DNP
18	73	Jim Miller	2017	0.00	DNP
19	73	David Aardsma	2017	0.00	DNP
20	73	Chad Paronto	2011	0.00	DNP
21	73	Jonathan Albaladejo	2018	0.00	DNP
22	72	Travis Smith	2008	0.00	DNP
23	71	Bobby Korecky	2015	0.00	DNP
24	71	Chris Narveson	2017	0.00	DNP
25	70	Logan Kensing	2018	0.00	DNP
26	70	Lou Pote	2007	0.00	DNP
27	70	Carlos Torres	2018	6.52
28	70	Nelson Figueroa	2009	4.22
29	70	Brandon Lyon	2015	0.00	DNP
30	70	Jim Brower	2008	0.00	DNP
31	70	Chris Smith	2016	3.28
32	70	Tim Hamulack	2012	0.00	DNP
33	70	Dustin McGowan	2017	4.87
34	70	Les Walrond	2012	0.00	DNP
35	70	Ken Ray	2010	0.00	DNP
36	70	Brian Duensing	2018	7.88
37	69	Dale Thayer	2016	0.00	DNP
38	69	Kevin Gryboski	2009	0.00	DNP
39	69	Marty McLeary	2010	0.00	DNP
40	69	Brandon Duckworth	2011	0.00	DNP
41	69	Ramiro Mendoza	2007	0.00	DNP
42	69	Buddy Carlyle	2013	0.00	DNP
43	68	Travis Driskill	2007	9.00
44	68	Todd Williams	2006	5.68
45	68	Bob Locker	1973	3.39
46	68	Jason Johnson	2009	0.00	DNP
47	68	Mark Lowe	2018	0.00	DNP
48	68	Raul Valdes	2013	7.46
49	67	Jarrett Grube	2017	0.00	DNP
50	67	Carlos Fisher	2018	0.00	DNP
51	67	Scott Strickland	2011	0.00	DNP
52	67	Mike Zagurski	2018	63.00
53	67	John Wasdin	2008	0.00	DNP
54	67	Joey Eischen	2005	3.72
55	67	Brian Shouse	2004	2.44
56	67	Jeremy Powell	2011	0.00	DNP
57	67	Ron Mahay	2006	4.74
58	67	Matt Albers	2018	7.60
59	67	Denny Stark	2010	0.00	DNP
60	66	Larry Andersen	1988	3.05
61	66	Tony Fiore	2007	0.00	DNP
62	66	Joe Thatcher	2017	0.00	DNP
63	66	Pat Neshek	2016	3.26
64	66	Stephen Randolph	2009	0.00	DNP
65	66	Ryan Vogelsong	2013	6.34
66	66	Daisuke Matsuzaka	2016	0.00	DNP
67	66	Danny Graves	2009	0.00	DNP
68	66	Randy Flores	2011	0.00	DNP
69	66	Luis Arroyo	1962	5.35	DNP
70	66	Blaine Boyer	2017	4.35
71	66	Joe Grzenda	1972	6.17
72	66	Stu Miller	1963	2.88
73	66	Luis Ayala	2013	3.00
74	66	Brian Lawrence	2011	0.00	DNP
75	66	Jon Rauch	2014	0.00	DNP
76	66	Terry Leach	1989	5.40
77	66	Craig Breslow	2016	5.79
78	66	John Halama	2007	0.00	DNP
79	66	Jim Johnson	2018	5.40
80	66	Buddy Groom	2001	3.82
81	65	Tyler Walker	2011	0.00	DNP
82	65	Tsuyoshi Wada	2016	0.00	DNP
83	65	Dick Drago	1980	4.55
84	65	Kerry Ligtenberg	2006	0.00	DNP
85	65	Bobby Tiefenauer	1965	5.81
86	65	Jamey Wright	2010	5.09
87	65	Chin-hui Tsao	2016	5.40
88	65	Joel Peralta	2011	3.06
89	65	Bobby Shantz	1961	3.83
90	65	Rick White	2004	5.97
91	65	Daniel McCutchen	2018	0.00	DNP
92	65	Shawn Camp	2011	4.88
93	65	Chad Qualls	2014	3.86
94	65	Jeff Francis	2016	0.00	DNP
95	65	Juan Perez	2014	0.00	DNP
96	65	Mike MacDougal	2012	7.94
97	65	Matt Lindstrom	2015	0.00	DNP
98	65	Julio Manon	2008	0.00	DNP
99	65	Gene Garber	1983	5.79
100	65	Randy Williams	2011	6.48

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2016		“The stuff returned to my norm, which is unremarkable, but still good enough.” That was LeCure the day he returned to Cincinnati after spending most of the summer in Louisville, displaying the self-awareness that has helped make him a bullpen fixture for the better part of six seasons. LeCure uses a million tricks to keep hitters from sitting on his combustible upper-80s fastball; last year he started replacing more of his knuckle-curves with an improved splitter and turned into a true worm-killer down the stretch. That bodes well for his future, so we should expect to see even more sluggers trudging back to the dugout sporting the classic “how'd that guy get me out?” expression in the middle innings this summer.
2015		After LeCure pitched just like heaven in 2013, many thought he could compete for a back-end bullpen role. The walk rate held steady last year, but, as he lost velocity, his strikeout rate declined to a wrong number. He's always handled lefties well thanks to a good curveball, but one good pitch is never enough in the big leagues unless it's Marianoesque. "Why can't I be you," LeCure probably wondered as he watched righties pound his diminished stuff for a sky-high .333/.384/.468 line. Big boys don't cry about turns of fortune in the majors, though, and LeCure will surely just say yes to a middle-relief role in 2015, hoping the curve continues to act as a lullaby to lefty hitters.
2014		If you had a pitch that generated a 44 percent whiff rate, a 46 percent groundball rate, a .116 batting average against and a .159 opponents' slugging percentage, you�d use it pretty often, right? Those are the career numbers for LeCure�s curveball, and 2013 marked the second year in a row it saw a 10 percentage point rise in usage, to 27 percent. He's not a hard thrower by any means, and at some point game theory suggests he'll get diminishing returns from the curve, but the whiff rate actually ticked up in heavier usage last year. To top it off, through the wonders of small sample sorcery, LeCure even played the role of reverse specialist, as he held lefties to a minuscule .446 OPS.
2013		Whatever LeProblem was, LeCure solved it on moving to the bullpen. The former fourth-round pick became a key part of Baker's bullpen last year, particularly toward the end. LeCure held batters to a 505 OPS in the second half and worked four scoreless innings in the NLDS. He didn't allow a homer after May 24�no small feat given his home park. LeCure doesn't throw hard, but features a starter's arsenal that keeps hitters guessing. There is nothing sexy about his game except the results, which in the end are all that matter.
2012		On a team with as many week-to-week crises in the rotation as the Reds had to deal with, LeCure was an indispensable man for the five months he was healthy enough to contribute. Calling him a low-velo guy would be a mistake; he's a utility pitcher who can occasionally dial up a 94-mph fastball, but he's also a five-pitch hurler who can hit the corners. He can be spotted in the rotation or handle multi-inning relief chores. If there were ever an "11th man Olympics," LeCure would be on the short list of favorites to medal, and as long as you don't insist he graduate from the role, you're in great shape.
2011		Low-velocity LeCure packs a four-pitch arsenal, but one would be hard-pressed to describe any of his standard-issue offerings as �plus,� at least while keeping a straight face. The 2005 fourth-rounder has better control than he showed in his MLB debut, but the rest of the package doesn�t stand to get much better. Formerly an extreme fly-ball pitcher, LeCure induced grounders at a higher rate last season, a trend that will have to continue for him to succeed while calling Great American Ball Park home. As a starter, his potential probably surpasses replacement level, which makes him an adequate short-term substitute for, say, an injured Homer Bailey, but not the kind of arm on which a team would want to rely for long. LeCure was far more effective in a small-sample taste of relief, which should provide the Reds with food for thought about his future.
2010		A fourth-round pick in 2005, LeCure is a fly-ball pitcher with slightly above-average velocity on his fastball, but also below-average movement. In his Triple-A debut in 2009, he posted solid peripherals, but had underwhelming results. He�s in line to be a replacement starter in 2010, and could have a future as a fifth starter, but one can expect that pitching at the Gap he�ll see a drop in his strikeout rate and an increase in his home-run rate, which is a dangerous combination.
2009		LeCure repeated at Chattanooga, with results not much different from the first time around, and his peripherals were right around his minor league career rates. Nevertheless added to the 40-man roster in November, LeCure remains a pitchability prospect, with average stuff across the board but a good sense of how approach the batter. Like Matt Maloney, he's also an extreme fly-ball pitcher in an organization whose end stop is a bandbox, and that just doesn't bode well.
2008		The Filthy LeCure doesn't have the same ceiling as the big arms in the system, but he is a more polished product. He also has a unique background due to sitting out his junior year in college do to academic problems, but that may have been a blessing in disguise, as the Reds got a fresh arm out of the college game, which is notorious for destroying young pitching. LeCure is not big, and he lacks that one big pitch to get scouts excited, but he mixes his pitches well, throws strikes, and should be a solid back of the rotation option by 2009.
2007		The academic issues that kept Lecure from pitching as a junior at the University of Texas helped drop him to the fourth round in the 2005 draft. The Reds jumped him up to High-A in his full-season debut in 2006 and Lecure didn`t disappoint. Flashing an ability to mix low-90s heat with good sliders and changeups, a successful jump to Double-A this year would put Lecure into the picture for the back end of the big league rotation in 2008.

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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC

Although he has not thrown an MLB pitch in 2025, Sam LeCure threw 5,498 pitches that were tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2010 and 2016, all of them occuring in Spring Training. In 2016, he relied primarily on his Sinker (88mph) and Slider (81mph), also mixing in a Fourseam Fastball (89mph).